Members Daily Post: 15/04/19 (complete)

Hexham ‘through the card’ , Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Hexham

2.40 –

Casimir Du Clos   (HcCh)  w2  ES+ 4/1 S3A  UP

Miss Amelia   (micro age)  w2 H1 I1 G3 7/2 S4  2nd

3.40 – Fisher Green  (HcH)  w2 H3 G3 20/1 S1 S2A UP

4.10 –

Exit To Where  (m class) 16/1 S2A 2nd 

Allez Cool   (HcCh) G3 10/1 S1 S2 

Prince Dundee   (m class and runs) H1 I1 9/4 WON 9/4>15/8 

 

Irish Bonus

Tramore

6.10 – Humble Beginnings   (HcH) 20/1 S2A 

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FLAT

Pontefract

2.50 –

Delph Crescent   (m class) 8/1

Dark Devil   (m class) (R1) 14/1

3.20 –

Pipers Note   (m dist) 16/1

Poyle Vinnie   (m dist) (R1)  w1 I3 4/1 UP

4.50 –

Highly Sprung   (m class) (R1) I3 G1 7/1 S6  3rd (needs stepping back to 6f) 

Kibaar   (m dist) 12/1 2nd

5.20 –

Round The Island   (all Hc’s, m class) H3 G3 9/1

Foxtrot Knight   (m dist) (R1) H3 I3 5/2

 

Windsor 

3.00 – Puds (m age) w1 H3 4/1 3rd

5.00 – Mood For Mischief (all hncp) ES+   10/1 S3A 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 5/44, 11p -6.4)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/70,19p, -34, 2019 Flat TEST 0/3,1p, -0.5)

No tips on Monday.

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Hexham ‘through the card’ 

Mainly for Chris, poor sod, but for interest…

2.10 – Super Mac 100/1/ Plan Of Escape 80/1 – to place?? The fav should hack up against this lot hard held really, but there’s a place up for grabs, so if you’re track side, best pick out a couple of biggies for the place market, or small change EW if you must.

2.40 – Ringaringarosie 10/3 – a tight handicap where you could make a case for the top four in the market – this one is down in class, Danny Cook takes over, and she’s a prominent racer/he may try and make all – so, that will do! She’s consistent enough but hasn’t got her head in front yet. Coltherd’s and Walford’s can be held up further back and the former’s jumping fell to pieces LTO.

3.10 – Sweet Vinetta 9/1 EW – maybe a race to sit out in truth as in theory one of the top two should be winning this on known form/progression. Team Skelton are throwing the kitchen sink at getting 200 winners in a season, and they should get there before Sandown. This one steps back up in trip and gets CP, and she’s here to run her race. Could sneak a place, and you never know, maybe the top two will fall in a hole! This is a very different track to anything they’ve raced on yet and the hill/swing for home catches out plenty.

3.40 – Saint Freule 7/2 / Welsh Rarebit EW 12/1 – another Skelton hotpot in this, who won hard held LTO and may do so again, returning 4 days later. We can live in hope though that he just doesn’t run his race! Maybe clutching at straws there but if he does, and the selection jumps off (can be tricky at start), he’d pick up the pieces. One at an EW price…well Welsh Rarebit may cause a shock, some ok novice form and 16f LTO was too short, esp at Class 2 pace. I’d be surprised if the S1 horse went close here, but they surprise me every now and then!

4.10 – Prince Dundeee 9/4/ Allez Cool 8/1 EW … the former is the solid one here and without doubt the one to beat, if he runs his race. He will track the pace, but horses run at this level generally either because they’re inconsistent, and in chases because they can hit a fence. Obviously you need some ability, but it’s jumping ability that makes so much difference for me, especially between going from C5>4>3. Anyway, from memory I watched his last race and he made a bad error down the back, but hes unexposed and entitled to be learning still. The CP made the difference and he is the right fav in this, plenty of trees in here. Allez Cool – well he looks a lively one for Jumps Strategy 1, and he was much bigger last night/first thing. He’s clearly had all sorts of problems, and you couldn’t bank on him running his race, second run after a monster absence. But, he did run well there, and will appreciate the step back up in trip. This is about whether he runs his race/to his best I think- he will go very close to winning if he does.

4.40 – Ravished 7/4 – I deferred to Darran Pearce’s preview for this, that’s the one he’s tipped, so that will do for me.

5.10- Black Ebony 6/1 – I like Black Ebony in this, he ran well on debut LTO where Brooke wasn’t overly hard on him, having travelled well, and it was a run of promise. There’s plenty of positive trainer stats with this type, and at the track, and he may appreciate this stiffer course. Connections like to win bumpers with their nice ones I think, and i’d be surprised if he isn’t here to run his race. Maybe a last win before a summer at grass and a novice campaign next season. He’s related to Attaglance and plenty of other winners, that team Jefferson know well. In theory one to track in time. The Nicky Richards horse – Holme Abbey-  may be worth some small support also, esp if any money comes. 15/2 may be fair. I preferred the main selection of the two.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Trainers to follow

3.40 H – The Vocalist (11/1< guide)

Jockeys/chasers

7.10 T – Wake up Early (16/1<)

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)

5.10 H – Black Ebony

LTO winning hurdlers

3.40 H – Solo Saxophone

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

4.10 H- Prince Dundee / Scorpo

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book 

3.10 H – Swwet Vinetta (long term, guide)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Welcome Info/Section 1 Strategies

Report 1 (previously shared) : Where to Begin? : READ HERE>>>

Report 2: Other ideas: READ HERE>>>

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 Stats/Trends Report : HERE>>>

  • Newmarket’s Craven Meeting (next week) Trainer Pointers

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Trainer Track Profiles: Summer Jumps 2019 READ HERE>>>

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

28 Responses

  1. 15th April Windsor and Pontefract
    2.30 Windsor 5f Fillies Novice Auction Stakes
    Scores
    4.25 Lambeth Walk
    3.75 Brazen Safa, Dr Simpson, Dreamy Rascal, Whispering Leaves, Amber Road, Dancing Leopard
    Difficult to sort out who is the greatest danger to Archie Watson’s Lambeth Walk. Against him may be his draw, but in bigger fields even that cannot be relied upon. I’d be tempted to leave out Dr Simpson owing to Tom D’s poor record here although even that is chancy with maestro Kingscote up and the rail draw. Similarly Michael Bell is a bit less likely first time up. This leaves the Clive Cox Whispering Leaves and Hannon’s Dreamy Rascal and Amber Road under Marquand and Levey respectively drawn next to each other in 8 and 9.
    Just too difficult unless one is present, and I will be at a funeral in Hereford. There seems to be a correlation between getting old and attending more funerals. They’re drawing from my pen now!
    2.20 Pontefract 5f Novice
    Scores
    4.25 Danny Ocean, Manolith
    3.75 Alminoor, Bendy Spirit,
    As Manolith is the only one without a previous run it would seem unlikely that he is the most likely of these. Danny Tudhope is also 0/25 on 2yos at Ponte which seems odd but is hard not to give a little weight to.
    Given the distance by which Alminoor beat Danny Ocean when they were both on debut it is hard to see the positions being reversed. Nothing to be had from this.
    Hugh

    1. Trying something new for 2 yo…following on from big hearts post….(No, NOT the horses have a dump gossip light-hearted hearsay so called “system” mentioned ok!!) but following up on the info about X factor hearts info….taking a look at the 2.20 at Ponte mentioned by Hugh above….Alminoor was top on my speed calculations @11.80 spf with Danny Ocean @ 11.97 and Bendy Spirit @ 12.50 spf ( 9th in the Brocklesby…so depends on how that form is rated) in terms of pedigree all are from good families …stats for the race are 43% of favs win, 2nd favs are 0/14 with 9 being placed, so with only 7 runners no value whatever in the race as cannot back the fave @2/5 on…if there are enhanced places the horse which has an interesting pedigree is Amnaa…..she is related to super hearted sires Buckpasser….the average size of horses heart is 8lbs and super heart sires have heart sizes of 14-16lbs . Aditionally the filly is related to to x factor heart horses on the dams side in Licence to Thrill and Ocean Grove. She is from the bloodline of dam Somethingroyal that produced Secretariat…Amnaa’s sire is Bungle Inthejungle which was the leading first crop sire in 2018 with 24 winners including a G3 in the Molecombe Stakes and won himself over 5 furlongs, so at 50/1 may squeak a place if three on offer…not sure about first time out performance for stable but an interesting contender on pedigree…watching brief for me to see how this filly runs.

  2. 15th April Windsor and Pontefract
    2.30 Windsor 5f Fillies Novice Auction Stakes
    Scores
    4.25 Lambeth Walk
    3.75 Brazen Safa, Dr Simpson, Dreamy Rascal, Whispering Leaves, Amber Road, Dancing Leopard
    Difficult to sort out who is the greatest danger to Archie Watson’s Lambeth Walk. Against him may be his draw, but in bigger fields even that cannot be relied upon. I’d be tempted to leave out Dr Simpson owing to Tom D’s poor record here although even that is chancy with maestro Kingscote up and the rail draw. Similarly Michael Bell is a bit less likely first time up. This leaves the Clive Cox Whispering Leaves and Hannon’s Dreamy Rascal and Amber Road under Marquand and Levey respectively drawn next to each other in 8 and 9.
    Just too difficult unless one is present, and I will be at a funeral in Hereford. There seems to be a correlation between getting old and attending more funerals. They’re drawing from my pen now!
    2.20 Pontefract 5f Novice
    Scores
    4.25 Danny Ocean, Manolith
    3.75 Alminoor, Bendy Spirit,
    As Manolith is the only one without a previous run it would seem unlikely that he is the most likely of these. Danny Tudhope is also 0/25 on 2yos at Ponte which seems odd but is hard not to give a little weight to.
    Given the distance by which Alminoor beat Danny Ocean when they were both on debut it is hard to see the positions being reversed. Nothing to be had from this.
    Hugh

    1. Trying something new for 2 yo…following on from big hearts post….(No, NOT the horses have a dump gossip light-hearted hearsay so called “system” mentioned ok!!) but following up on the info about X factor hearts info….taking a look at the 2.20 at Ponte mentioned by Hugh above….Alminoor was top on my speed calculations @11.80 spf with Danny Ocean @ 11.97 and Bendy Spirit @ 12.50 spf ( 9th in the Brocklesby…so depends on how that form is rated) in terms of pedigree all are from good families …stats for the race are 43% of favs win, 2nd favs are 0/14 with 9 being placed, so with only 7 runners no value whatever in the race as cannot back the fave @2/5 on…if there are enhanced places the horse which has an interesting pedigree is Amnaa…..she is related to super hearted sires Buckpasser….the average size of horses heart is 8lbs and super heart sires have heart sizes of 14-16lbs . Aditionally the filly is related to to x factor heart horses on the dams side in Licence to Thrill and Ocean Grove. She is from the bloodline of dam Somethingroyal that produced Secretariat…Amnaa’s sire is Bungle Inthejungle which was the leading first crop sire in 2018 with 24 winners including a G3 in the Molecombe Stakes and won himself over 5 furlongs, so at 50/1 may squeak a place if three on offer…not sure about first time out performance for stable but an interesting contender on pedigree…watching brief for me to see how this filly runs.

  3. today’s selections.
    Hexham 4-10. Allez Cool 9-1 sky 4 places
    Pontefract 2-50. Ghayyar 20-1
    1/2 pt ew

  4. Colins bets
    SP – 11.5 BOG – 11.00

    Elite bets
    SP – 10.625 BOG – 8.667

    New Method
    SP + 11.625 BOG + 28.75

    Aprils returns so far, still a profit from the 3 methods and April is always a difficult month with the wind down of NH and AW, and the start of the Flat turf season.
    Colin.

  5. Hi Josh
    Thanks for your “through the card ” notes . Very comprehensive.
    It is much appreciated and hopefully will enhance my Hexham experience. For those of you who have never been, it is a lovely course which offers panoramic views of the whole area. Mind you it will be freezing up there today. Thanks again.

  6. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    Windsor
    3.30 Gentle Look BOG 5/1
    5.00 Broad Appeal BOG 12/1
    NEW METHOD
    Pontefract
    3.20 Sandra’s Secret BOG 8/1
    4.50 One Boy BOG 16/1
    5.20 Foxtrot Knight BOG 5/2
    Colin

  7. The jumps season just gone by was so poor,that i usually would look at the cards at southwell first.Anyone following Karl Burke there over the winter would have been rewarded,how long before the market takes the value out of that one remains to be seen.
    Karl has one, a 3yo old Monsieur Piquer, at windsor today.Was 25/1 yesterday evening before a withdrawal.An awful race but trainer does well here with his 3 yr olds.
    Ben Curtis may be the jockey to follow this year especially when riding for Karl

  8. Colins bets
    SP – 11.5 BOG – 11.00

    Elite bets
    SP – 10.625 BOG – 8.667

    New Method
    SP + 11.625 BOG + 28.75

    Aprils returns so far, still a profit from the 3 methods and April is always a difficult month with the wind down of NH and AW, and the start of the Flat turf season.
    Colin.

  9. Winds 3:00 – The Daley Express, was available earlier at around 12/14’s, but money appears to be coming for him now at 7/8’s and appears to have only won when backed in the past (4/1 max). Franny is 3/6 (4p), and ground and mark should be fine. Won first time last year.

    Chris R.

  10. Hi Josh
    Thanks for your “through the card “ notes . Very comprehensive.
    It is much appreciated and hopefully will enhance my Hexham experience. For those of you who have never been, it is a lovely course which offers panoramic views of the whole area. Mind you it will be freezing up there today. Thanks again.

  11. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    Windsor
    3.30 Gentle Look BOG 5/1
    5.00 Broad Appeal BOG 12/1
    NEW METHOD
    Pontefract
    3.20 Sandra’s Secret BOG 8/1
    4.50 One Boy BOG 16/1
    5.20 Foxtrot Knight BOG 5/2
    Colin

  12. The jumps season just gone by was so poor,that i usually would look at the cards at southwell first.Anyone following Karl Burke there over the winter would have been rewarded,how long before the market takes the value out of that one remains to be seen.
    Karl has one, a 3yo old Monsieur Piquer, at windsor today.Was 25/1 yesterday evening before a withdrawal.An awful race but trainer does well here with his 3 yr olds.
    Ben Curtis may be the jockey to follow this year especially when riding for Karl

  13. Windsor 4.00 p.m. Deal A Dollar has the better heart bloodline…favs 56% but again a watching brief as prices very short, information only.

  14. Put up the other day about AW form not translating to Flat turf, just had a look at the results from todays two meeting and there were 12 runners that had won last time out on the AW and not one of them won today.
    Colin

  15. Winds 3:00 – The Daley Express, was available earlier at around 12/14’s, but money appears to be coming for him now at 7/8’s and appears to have only won when backed in the past (4/1 max). Franny is 3/6 (4p), and ground and mark should be fine. Won first time last year.

    Chris R.

  16. Following the same chain of thought for large hearts the 2.30 at Windsor is an interesting race…..Favs 30%…2nd Favs 20% Lambeth walk is no value @8/11 but has a good pedigree as do most of the runners.Clive Cox with Whispering Leaves is 10 from 30 and Watson with Lambeth Walk is 3 from 8 so obvoius chances. There are four other horses that caught my attention, the two Hannon runners, then Crime of Passion and Maybellene…Hannon has a 20% win rate but has a loss of £38 to level stakes and of his on pedigree Amber Road is the more interesting even though Marquand is on Dreamy Rascal and has 18% strike rate as opposed to Sean Levey’s 7%….Not a betting race but interesting to see how the named horses run and will see if an unmentioned horse Brazen Safa runs any kind of race…from a pedigree perspective from a good family but not one of the best in terms of heart lineage even though Hayley Turner up and is 2 from 5 on 2 year olds.

    1. Maybellene was placed at 25/1 @ 1/5 odds ISP in 2.30 Windsor and in the 2.20 at Ponte. Amnaa ran ok for a long time coming 4th at 66/1 so a bit of encouragement for the approach and in terms of prices.

  17. Windsor 4.00 p.m. Deal A Dollar has the better heart bloodline…favs 56% but again a watching brief as prices very short, information only.

  18. Put up the other day about AW form not translating to Flat turf, just had a look at the results from todays two meeting and there were 12 runners that had won last time out on the AW and not one of them won today.
    Colin

  19. Following the same chain of thought for large hearts the 2.30 at Windsor is an interesting race…..Favs 30%…2nd Favs 20% Lambeth walk is no value @8/11 but has a good pedigree as do most of the runners.Clive Cox with Whispering Leaves is 10 from 30 and Watson with Lambeth Walk is 3 from 8 so obvoius chances. There are four other horses that caught my attention, the two Hannon runners, then Crime of Passion and Maybellene…Hannon has a 20% win rate but has a loss of £38 to level stakes and of his on pedigree Amber Road is the more interesting even though Marquand is on Dreamy Rascal and has 18% strike rate as opposed to Sean Levey’s 7%….Not a betting race but interesting to see how the named horses run and will see if an unmentioned horse Brazen Safa runs any kind of race…from a pedigree perspective from a good family but not one of the best in terms of heart lineage even though Hayley Turner up and is 2 from 5 on 2 year olds.

    1. Maybellene was placed at 25/1 @ 1/5 odds ISP in 2.30 Windsor and in the 2.20 at Ponte. Amnaa ran ok for a long time coming 4th at 66/1 so a bit of encouragement for the approach and in terms of prices.

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