Members Daily Post: 13/04/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

 

JUMPS

Ayr

1.25 –

Duke of Navan   (micro runs) 30 H3 9/1  UP

Azzuri   (m class) 3/1  WON 7/2 

2.25 – Nube Negra   (m class) 14,30  5/1 

3.35 – Chidswell   (m runs) 30  w1  w2 20/1 S2A  UP

4.10 – Sky Khan   (m TJC) I1 G1 11/1 S1 S2 S5 UP

4.45 –

Golden Jeffrey   (HcH)  w2 I3 10/1 S2 S5 

River Icon   (HcH) 14/1 S2

 

Bangor  

1.45 – Holryale   (nov HcCh) 14,30 10/1 S2

2.45 – Flight To Milan   (m age) H3 I3 G3 5/2 S4 

3.20 –

Armattiekan   (HcH, m runs) I3 11/1 S2 S5 

Wazowski   (HcH)  w2 H1 4/1  WON 11/2

3.55 –

Rockalzaro   (HcH) H3 I3 G3 8/1 S4   S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP… Remember you can set this min price in betfair at a time of your choosing and bet will only be placed if 11.00 or bigger…) 

Danceintothelight   (HcH) H1 I1 7/2 

Devito’sredrobin   (HcH, m runs) 10/1 S2 

 

FLAT

Newbury

None

 

Thirsk

3.05 –

Rumshak   (m TJC) 25/1 

Prestbury Park   (4yo+, m dist) 16/1

3.40 – Benadalid   (all Hc’s) H3 I1 G1 8/1 S1 S4  S6  UP

 

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 5/44, 11p -6.4)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/70,19p, -34, 2019 Flat TEST 0/3,1p, -0.5)

 

JUMPS Big Race Tips

2.25 Ayr: Scottish Champion Hurdle

Malaya – 1 point win – 9/1 (Lad/BetfS/PP/Uni) 8/1 (the rest) UP

Captain Moirette – 1 point win – 20/1 (bet365/betfS/BV/PP) 25.00 Betfexch UP

 

1.25 Ayr 

Magic Saint – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) UP

McGroarty – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) 3rd 20/1 

 

THAT’S ALL for ‘Jumps Big Race Tips’, 10.47… write ups for all are at the bottom of the post. 

 

 

Daily Tips

NONE. Scottish Nat picks in Free post,and in comments below. 

 

Flat Big Race Tips TEST 

(0/3,1p, -0.5)

3.15 Newbury

Ibraz – 1 point EW – 8/1 (gen) UP

Borodin – 1 point EW – 18/1 (bet365/WH/BV/Uni) 3rd

that’s all for my ‘flat test’, 10.25, using my stats work below to try and land on 1 or 2. As previously stated bar Bachus (50/1) last year at Royal Ascot (and indeed Lagostovegas) my Feature handicap flat tipping needs some work, as those winners effectively paid for all the other Flat pokes in such races) So, a watching brief for now maybe, but do with those as you please, write ups to follow. My success with these will very much depend on whether my trends work, over time, is any good/shortlists enough winners!  

Write up at bottom of the post 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< )

3.35 Ayr – ACDC

2.25 A – Dino Velvet

D McCain (14/1, guide)

3.20 B – Armattiekan / Wazowski

3.55 B – Devitosredrobin  / Rockalzaro / Danceintothelight

Irish Raiders 

1.25 A – Veinard (16/1<)

SAT TJC (14/1<)

1.25 A-  Ozzie The Oscar

3.35 A – Beau Du Brizais

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow

1.25 A – Monsiur Co

5.20 A – Artoff

2.25 A- Equus Amadeus

LTO winning trainers

3.00 A  – Cool Mix

Jockeys/Chasers

3.35 A – Sizing Codelco / Doing Fine

1.25 A – Veinard

3.35 A – Kingswell Theatre (25/1<)

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book 

1.25 A – Saint Leo

3.35 A – Arthurs Gift

3.35 A – Cloth Cap

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Festival Losing Tips

3.35 A – Impulsive Star

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Dan Skelton Feature Handicap Hurdles Micro

4.10 A – Solomon Grey

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Welcome Info/Section 1 Strategies

Report 1 (previously shared) : Where to Begin? : READ HERE>>>

Report 2: Other ideas: READ HERE>>>

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NEW x1

 Stats/Trends Report : HERE>>>

  • Scottish National stats/trends
  • Newbury Spring Cup stats/trends
  • Scottish National Meeting Trainer Pointers
  • Newmarket’s Craven Meeting (next week) Trainer Pointers

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NEW x2

Trainer Track Profiles: Summer Jumps 2019 READ HERE>>>

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SATURDAY’s ‘FEATURE RACE’ STATS POINTERS

 

3.15 Newbury Spring Cup

(the ‘longlist / my shortlist / trainers is an experiment for this year’s Flat season, as I endeavour to find a more systematic approach to these feature handicaps) 

From the report above… 

the 5x 10/10 stats , in the last decade, are 10/48, 17p, +115 

Stats Longlist  (3x races: 1/20,6p, -10) 

…those pointers leave… Ibraz / Ripp Orf / Escobar / George of Hearts / Borodin 

If I focus on the first three 10/10 stats and cross referencing with the ‘odds ratio’ stats which are something new i’ve started looking at… they point to… Wafy + Pattie

…Leaving a ‘long list’ of… 

Ibraz  / Ripp Orf / Escobar / George of Hearts / Borodin /Wafy /Pattie

0/7, 1p , -7

 

My Shortlist (3x races: 0/10,2p, -10) 

(all to 1 point win)

Ibraz – 8/1 

Borodin – 18/1 

that’s it, just the two for this race.

 

Trainers (3x races: 2/6, 3p, +9) 

This idea uses my race stats/trends pointers and cross referencing with those trainers who’ve previously won the race. It’s found the Irish and English Lincoln winners so far this season. On my analysis there are two :- 

  • Wafy
  • Borodin 

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3.35 Scottish Grand National 

These stats/trends are not too useful in truth… applying the 10/10 and 9/9 stats leaves 8/56, 14p in the last decade. That’s only useful to a point and only leaves a list of 10…

Dingo Dollar / Big River / Beware The Bear / Crosshue Boy / Chidswell / Blue Flight / Brian Boranha / Arthurs Gift / Takingrisks / ACDC 

The 10/10 stats leave 16 runners, and from that list, those represented by previous winning trainers in the race…

Dingo Dollar / Blue Flight / Arthurs Gift 

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Ayr Scottish GN Trainer Pointers

Day 2 

1.25 – Magic Saint 11/2< / Azzuri

1.55 – Ibis Du Rheu (PN Micro) / Molly The Dolly (5/1<)

2.25 – Brain Power / Verdana Blue (3/1< both) / Malaya 11/2< / Nube Negra

3.00 – Monbeg Legend / Lough Derg Spirit / Secret Investor

4.10 – Solomon Grey / Colonia Dreams (3/1<) /

4.45 – Stowaway Magic

5.20 – O Connell Street

 

 

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Festival ‘through the card’: AYR Day 2

(Chelt +36, Aintree +24, Ayr -6.5) 

AyrTotal: 1/11,2p -6.5 

Day 2

Outside of races i’ve tipped in…

1.55 – Onefortheroadtom (NM tip) UP

3.00 -pass

4.10 – Solomon Grey 11/4 UP

4.45 – pass, hands and heels, nah.

5.20 – Mam Trasna 9/2

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Tips Write ups…

1.25

Magic Saint – Nicholls is 4/18, 8p in this race, in it’s history and given how widely touted this one was for the Grand Annual, I can only think he’s going to dot up again at some point. The yard clearly like him but Cheltenham seemed to be too much for him,in that field, at that track/ground. It was a big ask for one so young. If he got back to the form of his win two starts back he would go very well here, and of course he’s still open to masses of improvement. He should track the pace, is generally a very good jumper, and IF he runs his race, and to the level connections hint at, he is the one to beat here, up against plenty of exposed types. I’ve no idea why the fav is so short – maybe bookies running scared of Skelton Fetsival runners after wind ops, especially in these colours, and he was backed AP for Aintree before being withdrawn. That op will have to give him wings though, which it may do. Anyway, the selection either bolts up here or disappoints again, at which point it will all be about next season. Obviously having said that he’ll now run a solid 2nd /3rd! 🙂

McGroarty – I had this one on my shortlist for the Red Rum at Aintree, but he was pulled out on account of the ground. He really does want a fast surface, which he gets here. It’s plenty quick enough for jumping. He’s lightly raced, unexposed, and his run at Aintree LTO was a career best on the figures. He also races prominently , Sam TD sounded quietly confident in his RP column today, and fitness won’t be a problem, IF the trainer wants him ready – I can only think they’ve been saving him for this time of year/ground, and there should be more to come at some point- whether that’s today we shall see, but i’ve no doubt there’s still room in this mark.

2.25

Malaya – there’s a chance Sandown has bottomed her out but she’s been kept fresh for this, having swerved Cheltenham which came too soon, even despite the bonus up for grabs. That win was a career best, in a deep enough contest, and she’d have won by 2-3 lengths more but for uprooting the second last. To win like that from off the pace up that hill, in soft, was a decent effort. It may have left her mark but now she’s learnt to settle, we are seeing her best. A big field is what she wants. I’ve a slight niggle they may not go that quick in this, so we shall see if she switches off, but at 9s I was happy to role the dice. Nicholls has won this twice, and the girls are 1/9 runners in this also. She should cruise around mid division and be brought with a challenge over the last two. She’s fit, in form, and arrives on the back of a career best. (on RPR, and TS) Good ground won’t be an excuse, given some of her runs and her trainer says she will enjoy it.

Captain Moirette – in a race lacking loads of pace on paper (Sean Bowen should try and lead/dictate) I thought Cook would have this one in the right spot. The main interest in this one, at the price, is the fact trainer /jockey /owner won this last year with Midnight Shadow at 20/1 (market wasn’t a guide then) and he’s now rated 158 or so. He was also making handicap debut, albeit had a higher level of novice form. However, this one also comes here on the back of a career best, that run LTO decent on the figures, and Smith is 5/23,9p, +25 SP with her handicap debutants in the last 5 years. He won on Good two starts back and although maybe softer is ideal, at 20s I can’t say he wont’ handle it, given his form. It could be he’s not up to this level, and he is a chaser in the making, but people are creatures of habit, esp racing people, and I can’t think this one is here just to make up the numbers given the above.

Henderson is 0/18,5p in the race, and we shall see if he can improve on that this year. He does have a couple of live chances of course, two of them heading the market, Nick likes his outsider, so we shall see. Pearl of The West was interesting from a pace angle, but it should be hard to dictate this field. No without a squeak though at 10s.

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The Flat Test

Ibraz – well i’ve stuck to the ‘long list’ and trainers list as my starting point, and if something wins outside of those, then again I wasn’t destined to land on them. This one is unexposed, likes cut, has gone well fresh and the yard are in superb form. I can only assume this has been the plan. He also races on the pace. I thought he was interesting enough and 8s may be fair. There should be plenty more to come from him this season, at some point.

Borodin – Fahey has a decent enough record in this race, the horse likes cut, shapes like a strong stayer and is another who should have plenty more to offer this season. Fahey jockey bookings isn’t something I like to over-think (not that i’ve spent much of my life to date thinking about them mind!!). He has so many horses, some of them could be based on who rides them at home etc, albeit Hanagan appears to be the main man still. Anyway, i’d like to think he’ll be tuned up for this. He may not be of course, but at 18s i’ll roll the dice. There’s some pace to track far side and if he’s fit, he’ll be staying on.

I didn’t like the others on the long list for various reasons, but we shall see if I’ve got any of those wrong. I do have £5EW on these, I have to put some money on them to make it a true test rather than a pointless paper exercise. I wouldn’t necessarily advise you do the same, as I need to prove myself over a season, as does my stats approach to the Flat. But, do with them as you please. For my bank balance I hope one of Nick’s dots up, given my staking levels on those.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

95 Comments

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  • I`ll try not to wind Josh up too much this week. Don`t tell him, but, i did back BORN SURVIVOR on his say so…haha
    I will do write ups again tomorrow morning, but, for those who can get the best prices here goes.

    14:10 Newbury
    STAR TERMS 1pt win 9/1 hills
    DANDHU 1pt win 6/1 gen

    15:15 Newbury
    ESCOBAR 1 pt win 16/1 gen
    WAFY 1pt win 16/1 gen

    15:35 Ayr
    CHIDSWELL 1pt win 22/1 gen
    CLOTH CAP 1pt win 14/1 gen
    CROSSHUE BOY 1pt win 12/1 365

    write ups in morning!

    Stewart 11/08/19 2:53 PM Reply


    • Born Survivor was a class 1 & 2 handicap +61 days Skelton job. He has two today at Ayr that also qualify, 1.25 Azurri and 1.55 Molly The Dolly. Azurri looks a right plot job after his wind op.

      martin colwell 11/08/19 3:05 PM Reply


      • Yep, that is aimed at handicap hurdles though Martin and for a reason 🙂 That was his first chase winner in those conditions in 29 attempts. Systematically, i wouldn’t follow the chasers.
        But, as per the reasoning, the horse has always been best fresh etc etc. Always wish you’d had more on when they win like that, i needed one of your 4-6 points jobbies!! 🙂

        Josh 12/08/19 4:28 AM Reply


        • I will follow both hurdles and chases for this micro and see how they go over time. I only had 2 points on Azzuri as a bet but also have it with the other Skelton runners at Ayr. It may be a more focused approach from the stable? We shall see.

          martin colwell 12/08/19 11:49 AM Reply


    • haha – I wasn’t wound up, but yes as was evident I couldn’t have disagreed more of your assessment of said horse! 🙂 The great game.

      Best of luck today as always, can fully see why you’re on those 3 in the Scottish – I’d take Chidswell hacking up right now!! 🙂
      The other two were just a tad too short to my eyes, given the odd niggle, i’d prefer Jonjo’s out of the two if he’s fit enough/this experience isn’t all a bit too much, but he does shape like a dour stayer and can only assume this has been the plan since his last run. Shame they didn’t get a run into him though but not impossible to win these off a break, esp these days.
      If Crosshue holds a decent possy/doesn’t get too far back, he jumps and he stays (all niggles I had, in context of not being bigger than 11s or so) then you’re going to have plenty to cheer over the last couple – him and Cloth I can picture bolting up, but couldn’t get myself to a place to back them. Were they 16s+, i’d have had plenty more headaches this morning!
      GL

      Josh 11/08/19 2:53 PM Reply


      • Well done Josh, chucked shrapnel on yours and you are back in the mix my friend!! Well done and I had a stroke of luck on the flat also!! Great day all round!!

        Stewart 11/08/19 3:05 PM Reply


  • I`ll try not to wind Josh up too much this week. Don`t tell him, but, i did back BORN SURVIVOR on his say so…haha
    I will do write ups again tomorrow morning, but, for those who can get the best prices here goes.

    14:10 Newbury
    STAR TERMS 1pt win 9/1 hills
    DANDHU 1pt win 6/1 gen

    15:15 Newbury
    ESCOBAR 1 pt win 16/1 gen
    WAFY 1pt win 16/1 gen

    15:35 Ayr
    CHIDSWELL 1pt win 22/1 gen
    CLOTH CAP 1pt win 14/1 gen
    CROSSHUE BOY 1pt win 12/1 365

    write ups in morning!

    Stewart 12/04/19 7:23 PM Reply


    • Born Survivor was a class 1 & 2 handicap +61 days Skelton job. He has two today at Ayr that also qualify, 1.25 Azurri and 1.55 Molly The Dolly. Azurri looks a right plot job after his wind op.

      martin colwell 13/04/19 9:34 AM Reply


      • Yep, that is aimed at handicap hurdles though Martin and for a reason 🙂 That was his first chase winner in those conditions in 29 attempts. Systematically, i wouldn’t follow the chasers.
        But, as per the reasoning, the horse has always been best fresh etc etc. Always wish you’d had more on when they win like that, i needed one of your 4-6 points jobbies!! 🙂

        Josh 13/04/19 12:47 PM Reply


        • I will follow both hurdles and chases for this micro and see how they go over time. I only had 2 points on Azzuri as a bet but also have it with the other Skelton runners at Ayr. It may be a more focused approach from the stable? We shall see.

          martin colwell 13/04/19 1:49 PM Reply


    • haha – I wasn’t wound up, but yes as was evident I couldn’t have disagreed more of your assessment of said horse! 🙂 The great game.

      Best of luck today as always, can fully see why you’re on those 3 in the Scottish – I’d take Chidswell hacking up right now!! 🙂
      The other two were just a tad too short to my eyes, given the odd niggle, i’d prefer Jonjo’s out of the two if he’s fit enough/this experience isn’t all a bit too much, but he does shape like a dour stayer and can only assume this has been the plan since his last run. Shame they didn’t get a run into him though but not impossible to win these off a break, esp these days.
      If Crosshue holds a decent possy/doesn’t get too far back, he jumps and he stays (all niggles I had, in context of not being bigger than 11s or so) then you’re going to have plenty to cheer over the last couple – him and Cloth I can picture bolting up, but couldn’t get myself to a place to back them. Were they 16s+, i’d have had plenty more headaches this morning!
      GL

      Josh 13/04/19 12:51 PM Reply


      • Well done Josh, chucked shrapnel on yours and you are back in the mix my friend!! Well done and I had a stroke of luck on the flat also!! Great day all round!!

        Stewart 13/04/19 4:55 PM Reply


  • today’s selections.
    Ayr.
    1-25. Saint Leo 8-1 b365 4 places, in with every chance over c+d 2 runs ago when falling 3 out and not disgraced lto well weighted if getting round.
    2-25. Verdana Blue 6-1 WH 5 places, even at top weight should have every chance if reproducing Christmas Hurdle form.
    3-35. Kingswell Theatre 50-1 WH 6 places, led the Cheltenham Cross Country chase last month for a fair way until fading to 6th , that was off a 15 month absence so should come on for that.
    all 1/2 pt ew

    Martin Whittle 11/08/19 2:53 PM Reply


    • 1 winner, 2 n/r’s.
      staked 1 pt, returns 4.06 pts, up 3.06 pts

      Martin Whittle 11/08/19 3:04 PM Reply


  • Morning.
    Well don`t take the flat picks as pukka gen, like i said, at the moment I am trying to look at certain races and pick out winners, but, it is very much a work in progress and i may even switch to the summer jumps, we shall see.
    Anyways main race is the Scottish National, so, here goes.
    14:10 Newbury
    STAR TERMS
    goes on the ground, trainer in form, speed ratings are quite good and will appreciate this good gallop.
    DANDHU
    This one is short at 6/1, but without the front two, whom i don`t really fancy, then becomes value, Mr Mosse is a top jockey who is akin to Frankie in that he never rides mountains of winners, but, is called upon every now and again to “do the job”, workmanlike I think they call it! Another who ticks boxes on pace / going etc.
    15:15 Newbury
    ESCOBAR
    Know most of these met in the Lincoln, but at the prices this and my other selection stuck out, ground now coming into favour of these two and with decent jockeys on board will have a stab.
    WAFY
    Same as above really, only thing to add is if you can get morning 22/1 wouldn`t put you off an e/w.
    15:35 Ayr
    CHIDSWELL
    This is Nick Richards favourite course, both for the amount of horses he sends up here and the amount of winners he has had at the course, this one and all the others i have selected are improvers i feel, they have targeted this race in one way or another. Chidswell has course form, and that is useful as Ayr have taken a leaf out of Haydock`s books and really pack their fences with birch these days, which does take a lot out of a horse (As Nicky Henderson was moaning about with Might Bite early in the season), over 4 miles that could make the difference between winning and losing. 22/1 is top value.
    CLOTH CAP
    Now I`m an advocate of pace, (Nick Mordin was spot on when he said the British are way behind on this and even some 20 years after the release of his book Betting for a living, nobody has done sectional timing), wish someone could do pace figures and if anyone knows of anywhere you can get them I would be really interested. What do i mean by that? well, as i eluded to with Josh last week, some horses have a high travelling speed, but, no end kick, they can travel really well in a race and it is there overall pace (which may be quick) that makes it look like they have really stayed on in a race, (Whipserinthebreeze is a classic example of this, watch his races and you will see what i mean). Really high cruising speed, but, nothing at the end of a race and sometimes these horses get caught and sometimes they win! Some horses are trained like that and CLOTH CAP is one of those, he has a really high cruising speed which means he will be set up for a race like this, front end hopefully and will have burned most of them off by the time they turn in.
    CROSSHUE BOY
    Won at this course this time last year and as with the other 2 has been “trained” with this in mind, this one stays forever and a day and finishes with a flurry, will be the danger to my other 2 and at the 12/1 on offer is just value.

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today!

    Stewart 11/08/19 2:53 PM Reply


  • I’ve gone 4 handed in the big one, and some proper pokes at prices, as per free post, write ups to follow later on…
    3.35 Ayr : Scottish Grand National 

    Takingrisks – 1 point win – 25/1 (lad/BV/Coral) 32.00 BetExch

    Chic Name – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen) 30.00 BetExch

    Brian Boranha – 1 point win – 33/1 (WH/BV/BetfS/PP) 44.00 BetExch

    Chidswell – 1 point win – 22/1 (BVBetfS/PP/) 27.00 BetExch

    That’s all for this race! 09.20

    Josh 11/08/19 2:53 PM Reply


    • Hi Josh, I know you’re generally an advocate of win only but do you not think with so many extra places available in these big races, that EW would be a better option, especially at those odds? Have you ever analysed your big race results to see how EW would stack up against win only?

      Ken McKenzie 11/08/19 3:05 PM Reply


      • Each way betting, which I have nothing against, will manager your ‘bank’ better and give likely a steady flow of returns. I do understand most punters prefer this rather than going on a losing run but hitting bigger when they go in. I was talking to an experienced race analysis re my tipping algorithm project and he was saying that the bookies cater for the punters who prefer not to lose rather than go for the profit and so like each way betting as it gives them a steadier return. I am going on what he says but it makes sense.
        So the first question to ask yourself as a punter would then be ‘are you going for decent profit with the chance of loss’ or ‘a steady flow of returns but not big potential profit’. So it depends on what you are looking for.
        In the case of Josh’s picks in the SGN, you would not go each way with four picks as you would either be staking up double or reducing your win stake to cater for the place element. That does not make sense to me.

        Good luck today.

        martin colwell 11/08/19 11:08 PM Reply


        • I understand the rationale behind your comments but I still think in these big races with the extra places available that EW could produce similar returns in the long run. However, it is just a gut feeling with no stats to back it up, hence why I asked if Josh has ever done a comparison.

          Ken McKenzie 12/08/19 8:29 AM Reply


        • Totally agree with Martin, Josh, Nick and some of the others, they have both been advocates in my way of thinking and staking.
          I am still haphazard with my staking, but, do like a good dutch…Each way is a cop out for me when I`m not doing too well and it is one of my foibles, when you are losing, you do “double” up on the stake and if it doesn`t place you are in effect losing 2x your usual stake, which can hurt more than losing 1x the stake on a straight win bet, if that makes sense… Hope I`m not speaking out of turn, but, Nick knows the majority of his horses will place, the win element of that is the bonus for him therefore he keeps steady profits and when the win element comes in, it`s Brucey bonus time!!
          Me on the other hand back majority of mine win only and for this National Hunt season, it has worked a treat!
          Each to their own though and if we are all making profit at the end of the day, who cares which way you are staking?

          Stewart 12/08/19 8:29 AM Reply


      • Hi Ken,

        Yep I did some research on it a while back, I forget the exact figures but in my big race (inc free), 1/2 EW versus 1 point win was a 60 point or so difference from memory, in favour of win only. At last years Chelt Festival it was a 40/50+ difference I think. This year win versus 1/2 EW was -13 versus 0/+2 in favour of EW. Certainly profit wise, given my approach, which does depend on landing on enough 20s 25s+ over time, 1 point on the nose has been best. Of course if you’ve long jumped ship because the severe losing runs are too much (which at times has been due to my poor form, but that is in part linked to my average odds, and the losing runs I will hit), then the profit figure doesn’t matter. EW is best in that scenario, mentally if nothing else.
        My alternative is to switch to 1/2 EW bets, and maybe that’s something I need to consider. I wouldn’t want more than 4 points on any one race, so going 1 point EW isn’t an option, and my EW record isn’t great, in part due to how I analyse. Nick for example has a far far better EW mindset (if not generally!) and analyses races as such, hence the advice etc etc.
        No right or wrongs and as always staking is up to the individual. The way to combat my approach I suppose as with anything is to start small and build up over time, but even to small stakes the losses can get uncomfortable. Esp when I don’t hit biggies for weeks/months, gulp.
        Josh

        Josh 11/08/19 11:08 PM Reply


        • Cheers Josh

          Ken McKenzie 12/08/19 8:29 AM Reply


    • nice touch josh wd as always 🙂

      George B 11/08/19 2:53 PM Reply


  • 3.15 Newb Another Batt 80/1 15 places ( only joking smiley)
    taking a chance Oisin delivers him later than Noble has in two goes.
    3.05 Thirsk Kenny the Captain
    lone furrow hopefully
    5.55 Thirsk Masherdal
    Just a matter of fitness here.

    chubnut 11/08/19 2:53 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    1.45 Bangor Gone Platinum BOG 9/2
    6.30 Wolverhampton Zapper Cass BOG 10/3
    6.30 Big Time Maybe BOG 6/1
    ELITE BETS
    3.15 Newbury George Of Hearts BOG 22/1
    4.15 Thirsk Tenax BOG 22/1
    4.45 Ayr Castletown BOG 7/1
    NEW METHOD
    Bangor
    2.15 Shamon Du Berlais BOG 9/4
    2.45 Flight To Milan BOG 3/1
    3.20 Wazowski BOG 4/1
    Ayr
    3.35 Dingo Dollar BOG 10/1
    4.10 Solomon Grey BOG 11/4
    Newbury
    3.50 Just The Man BOG 11/4
    Wolverhampton
    7.00 Marshal Dan BOG 3/1
    7.30 Energia Flavo BOG 8/1
    8.00 Rich Cummins BOG 10/3
    Colin

    cleafe 11/08/19 2:53 PM Reply


  • Just a mention, in case anyone missed it yesterday afternoon, Nick did have one for today which appeared as the very last post yesterday. He may have others later of course. 🙂

    John Unitt 11/08/19 2:53 PM Reply


    • Yeah sorry write ups took half an hour so in hindsight maybe should have posted first. Still waiting for my edit button from Josh 😉

      nickmazur 11/08/19 3:05 PM Reply


      • Hi Nick, know what you mean I`m exhausted after the write ups, but, with success comes the cross we have to bear, people wanting to know why we have picked the bloomin things…haha.
        Half the time i can`t remember whether to write he or she and that is only the trainers… 🙂

        Stewart 11/08/19 3:05 PM Reply


  • Onefortheroadtom Ayr 13:55 1pt e/w-7/1-Has always been highly thought of since beating Lalor and Kilbricken Storm in a bumper. Has been a patchy chase career but going by his last start he seems to finally be putting it together and he has been crying out for a step up to 3 miles. He has a 3m PTP win on good so conditions won’t be an issue. Fry has an excellent record with cheekpieces and in particularity first time cheekpieces having won 3 of his last 4 and4 out of his last 6.

    Brain Power Ayr 14:25 1pt e/w-14/1-We know he isn’t a Grade 1 horse and I can do a better job of jumping fences than he can, but if you look at his hurdle form away from Grade 1s and on good/soft or better ground you get a record of 5 wins and a 2nd from 6 runs including when he hosed up in the Wessex. He is only 4lbs higher than that run after the handicapper generously dropped him 5lb for a race he had no chance of winning and he should go well.

    Impulsive Star Ayr 15:35 1pt e/w-16/1-Would have hated the ground last time out but before that he was an easy winner of the Classic and was staying on. Form has worked out with the 3rd winning the Eidar. I definitely think there is room in his mark. Trainer arguably in better form also and looked overpriced.

    Red Starlight Newbury 15:15 1pt e/w-Advised yesterday at 9/1 and was still available with at least 3 major bookies just before 9am-Ran a very solid race LTO and whilst she couldn’t get to the winner she destroyed the remainder of the field and the handicap was kind enough to leave her on the same mark. That was by far her best seasonal re-appearance and she has won her 2nd start on both of her last 2 years. She also beat Auxerre off pretty much level weights who hosed up in the Lincoln. Will either race up there or quite possibly push the pace. I suspect there is a high chance this is the last time we ever see her in a handicap. Only minor niggle would be if the field does some weird split.

    Humbert Newbury 15:15 1pt e/w-I thought this one was too big. Last run would have blown the cobwebs away. Only 2lbs higher than his 2nd in this last year. Danny back on board for the first time since his last win and if Red doesn’t win he should be there to pick up the pieces.

    Frontispiece Newbury 17:35 1pt e/w-Has always been highly thought of and ran some decent races in her career ahead of horses who now running in class 1s. Has been gelded over the winter. Always runs well off a break. Races prominently, has a good draw and Buick is an eye-catching booking.

    Mr Strutter Thirsk 15:05 1pt e/w-Looked a massive price as plenty here are going to need it. You want to be drawn high at Thirsk. he loves the track with a 3 wins and a 4th from 4 runs. has race fitness on his side. Should be one of the pace angles. Has ran OK in the winter on the AW but placed in his last 2 class 5 starts off this sort of mark. Slight question on the trainer form but he did have a winner just over a month ago and we are getting a massive price to compensate.

    nickmazur 11/08/19 2:53 PM Reply


    • Hi Nick, HUMBERT is also in the Love Racing package. Which is in my tracker on its 2nd run. 🙂

      solentmagpie 11/08/19 3:05 PM Reply


    • 14 points!

      The piggy bank has been raided.

      martin colwell 11/08/19 2:53 PM Reply


    • Hi Nick for my records is that a 14pt loss for the day? ty

      Festival Freebie 11/08/19 3:04 PM Reply


      • Yep looks like it on my records. I’m sure he doesn’t want reminding of it haha. He’ll get that back in next few days. some frustrating horses just out of places and Fry’s would have been top 2 at worst if not falling. That’s how it goes, run of the green.

        Josh 11/08/19 3:05 PM Reply


        • thanks Josh, i was not saying it for that..as you know…just i was not sure as some bookies paid the extra place. whats 14 points when you make 500 😉 will still be backing them tomorrow, gl Nick thanks for your work

          Festival Freebie 11/08/19 11:08 PM Reply


          • haha, oh I know. Yep that’s the spirit. Suspect odd one may have hit odd sixth place if some were paying but he doesn’t record them officially unless proper widespread – Scottish Nat had 6 places across board for example.
            That’s the spirit, he’s a big pile to play with, and his loss periods are never too severe and never last too long, historically at least 🙂

            Josh 12/08/19 8:29 AM Reply


    • I had impulsive star top on speed/pace.

      Warren Bottomley 11/08/19 2:53 PM Reply


  • today’s selections.
    Ayr.
    1-25. Saint Leo 8-1 b365 4 places, in with every chance over c+d 2 runs ago when falling 3 out and not disgraced lto well weighted if getting round.
    2-25. Verdana Blue 6-1 WH 5 places, even at top weight should have every chance if reproducing Christmas Hurdle form.
    3-35. Kingswell Theatre 50-1 WH 6 places, led the Cheltenham Cross Country chase last month for a fair way until fading to 6th , that was off a 15 month absence so should come on for that.
    all 1/2 pt ew

    Martin Whittle 13/04/19 7:57 AM Reply


    • 1 winner, 2 n/r’s.
      staked 1 pt, returns 4.06 pts, up 3.06 pts

      Martin Whittle 13/04/19 5:59 PM Reply


  • Morning.
    Well don`t take the flat picks as pukka gen, like i said, at the moment I am trying to look at certain races and pick out winners, but, it is very much a work in progress and i may even switch to the summer jumps, we shall see.
    Anyways main race is the Scottish National, so, here goes.
    14:10 Newbury
    STAR TERMS
    goes on the ground, trainer in form, speed ratings are quite good and will appreciate this good gallop.
    DANDHU
    This one is short at 6/1, but without the front two, whom i don`t really fancy, then becomes value, Mr Mosse is a top jockey who is akin to Frankie in that he never rides mountains of winners, but, is called upon every now and again to “do the job”, workmanlike I think they call it! Another who ticks boxes on pace / going etc.
    15:15 Newbury
    ESCOBAR
    Know most of these met in the Lincoln, but at the prices this and my other selection stuck out, ground now coming into favour of these two and with decent jockeys on board will have a stab.
    WAFY
    Same as above really, only thing to add is if you can get morning 22/1 wouldn`t put you off an e/w.
    15:35 Ayr
    CHIDSWELL
    This is Nick Richards favourite course, both for the amount of horses he sends up here and the amount of winners he has had at the course, this one and all the others i have selected are improvers i feel, they have targeted this race in one way or another. Chidswell has course form, and that is useful as Ayr have taken a leaf out of Haydock`s books and really pack their fences with birch these days, which does take a lot out of a horse (As Nicky Henderson was moaning about with Might Bite early in the season), over 4 miles that could make the difference between winning and losing. 22/1 is top value.
    CLOTH CAP
    Now I`m an advocate of pace, (Nick Mordin was spot on when he said the British are way behind on this and even some 20 years after the release of his book Betting for a living, nobody has done sectional timing), wish someone could do pace figures and if anyone knows of anywhere you can get them I would be really interested. What do i mean by that? well, as i eluded to with Josh last week, some horses have a high travelling speed, but, no end kick, they can travel really well in a race and it is there overall pace (which may be quick) that makes it look like they have really stayed on in a race, (Whipserinthebreeze is a classic example of this, watch his races and you will see what i mean). Really high cruising speed, but, nothing at the end of a race and sometimes these horses get caught and sometimes they win! Some horses are trained like that and CLOTH CAP is one of those, he has a really high cruising speed which means he will be set up for a race like this, front end hopefully and will have burned most of them off by the time they turn in.
    CROSSHUE BOY
    Won at this course this time last year and as with the other 2 has been “trained” with this in mind, this one stays forever and a day and finishes with a flurry, will be the danger to my other 2 and at the 12/1 on offer is just value.

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today!

    Stewart 13/04/19 8:19 AM Reply


  • There are two 2yo races up at Thirsk today and in both I could not separate the Johnston and Fahey runners. I have done 2 reverse forecasts
    2.00 Xcelente/Kidda
    2.30 Jim Jackson/Ventura Rebel.
    If wither comes off it should cover the other and if both do happy days.

    No luck in the 2yo race at Newbury yesterday, a very difficult race to ‘get’ paddockside. I would not be surprised if Separate is not the Hannon fily for the early season 2yo fillies Cl2 race at Salisbury on the 28th. I will post analysis and pictures tomorrow.

    It’s an ill wind.. I stayed on for the 5f sprint afterwards in which Stake Acclaim looked so fit and happy with himself that it would have been rude not to.
    Hugh

    alpha2 11/08/19 2:53 PM Reply


    • The exacta paid 9.6 and the forecast 7.5 on the 2.30pm so a reasonable return. Would have been better dutching both in both races but still a reasonable result.
      Forgot to mention in my earl;ier post to avoid anything drawn too high at Newbury on the straight course.
      Hugh

      alpha2 11/08/19 3:05 PM Reply


      • Well done Hugh. Top analysis as always.

        Josh 11/08/19 4:18 PM Reply


  • I’ve gone 4 handed in the big one, and some proper pokes at prices, as per free post, write ups to follow later on…
    3.35 Ayr : Scottish Grand National 

    Takingrisks – 1 point win – 25/1 (lad/BV/Coral) 32.00 BetExch

    Chic Name – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen) 30.00 BetExch

    Brian Boranha – 1 point win – 33/1 (WH/BV/BetfS/PP) 44.00 BetExch

    Chidswell – 1 point win – 22/1 (BVBetfS/PP/) 27.00 BetExch

    That’s all for this race! 09.20

    Josh 13/04/19 9:21 AM Reply


    • Hi Josh, I know you’re generally an advocate of win only but do you not think with so many extra places available in these big races, that EW would be a better option, especially at those odds? Have you ever analysed your big race results to see how EW would stack up against win only?

      Ken McKenzie 13/04/19 9:33 AM Reply


      • Each way betting, which I have nothing against, will manager your ‘bank’ better and give likely a steady flow of returns. I do understand most punters prefer this rather than going on a losing run but hitting bigger when they go in. I was talking to an experienced race analysis re my tipping algorithm project and he was saying that the bookies cater for the punters who prefer not to lose rather than go for the profit and so like each way betting as it gives them a steadier return. I am going on what he says but it makes sense.
        So the first question to ask yourself as a punter would then be ‘are you going for decent profit with the chance of loss’ or ‘a steady flow of returns but not big potential profit’. So it depends on what you are looking for.
        In the case of Josh’s picks in the SGN, you would not go each way with four picks as you would either be staking up double or reducing your win stake to cater for the place element. That does not make sense to me.

        Good luck today.

        martin colwell 13/04/19 9:44 AM Reply


        • I understand the rationale behind your comments but I still think in these big races with the extra places available that EW could produce similar returns in the long run. However, it is just a gut feeling with no stats to back it up, hence why I asked if Josh has ever done a comparison.

          Ken McKenzie 13/04/19 9:54 AM Reply


          • I do not think that a comparison would tell you much more than backing each way will reduce loss and even give you a lower level profit in some cases and decrease profit overall over a long period of time? With four picks you have eight stakes each way!!! I fully understand that some punters get excited over 6 places or 8 places etc but the bookmakers are squeezing the odds on punters for the privilege of doing so. With a win bet you will get best odds (with the constraint of restrictions on you personally!!!).

            Anyway, good luck today.

            martin colwell 13/04/19 11:30 AM Reply


        • Totally agree with Martin, Josh, Nick and some of the others, they have both been advocates in my way of thinking and staking.
          I am still haphazard with my staking, but, do like a good dutch…Each way is a cop out for me when I`m not doing too well and it is one of my foibles, when you are losing, you do “double” up on the stake and if it doesn`t place you are in effect losing 2x your usual stake, which can hurt more than losing 1x the stake on a straight win bet, if that makes sense… Hope I`m not speaking out of turn, but, Nick knows the majority of his horses will place, the win element of that is the bonus for him therefore he keeps steady profits and when the win element comes in, it`s Brucey bonus time!!
          Me on the other hand back majority of mine win only and for this National Hunt season, it has worked a treat!
          Each to their own though and if we are all making profit at the end of the day, who cares which way you are staking?

          Stewart 13/04/19 9:55 AM Reply


          • I wouldn’t double up. I split it in half, so you only lose the same stake if it loses. To be clear, I’m only talking about the big races with extra places.

            Ken McKenzie 13/04/19 10:13 AM Reply


            • I think it s personal choice but i always do anything Nick has as E/W – which is invariably as he recommends it – and also Josh s over about 8/1 – even if he states ‘to win’. My reasoning is that i don’t like long losing runs, and with the average prices around we will inevitably get them. It also helps ‘iron out’ the steep drops and volatility in you Bank (hands over Chubnut’s eyes here) Irish Smiley! I appreciate that overall profit levels may be somewhat clipped by this but it fits with my ‘anxiety levels’ if we have a mega mega LLR. Would be very interested in knowing if anyone has actually analysed the comparison – using a particular cut -off price below which its Win only. Very much doubt anyone has the time let alone inclination. For me if out ‘top tipster Nick’ goes invariably EW and can make the points he has, or even half of them then i feel comfortable with it ! 🙂

              John Unitt 13/04/19 10:40 AM Reply


              • Exactly my point ‘I do not like long losing runs’. Each to their own. You do need a decent ‘bank’ to bet win only. Re Nick, who can see in to his mind???? I guess he likes a steady return? He does work in insurance and so is living what he preaches maybe? There is no right answer to win or each way except what works for you.

                martin colwell 13/04/19 11:37 AM Reply


      • Hi Ken,

        Yep I did some research on it a while back, I forget the exact figures but in my big race (inc free), 1/2 EW versus 1 point win was a 60 point or so difference from memory, in favour of win only. At last years Chelt Festival it was a 40/50+ difference I think. This year win versus 1/2 EW was -13 versus 0/+2 in favour of EW. Certainly profit wise, given my approach, which does depend on landing on enough 20s 25s+ over time, 1 point on the nose has been best. Of course if you’ve long jumped ship because the severe losing runs are too much (which at times has been due to my poor form, but that is in part linked to my average odds, and the losing runs I will hit), then the profit figure doesn’t matter. EW is best in that scenario, mentally if nothing else.
        My alternative is to switch to 1/2 EW bets, and maybe that’s something I need to consider. I wouldn’t want more than 4 points on any one race, so going 1 point EW isn’t an option, and my EW record isn’t great, in part due to how I analyse. Nick for example has a far far better EW mindset (if not generally!) and analyses races as such, hence the advice etc etc.
        No right or wrongs and as always staking is up to the individual. The way to combat my approach I suppose as with anything is to start small and build up over time, but even to small stakes the losses can get uncomfortable. Esp when I don’t hit biggies for weeks/months, gulp.
        Josh

        Josh 13/04/19 12:25 PM Reply


        • Cheers Josh

          Ken McKenzie 13/04/19 3:21 PM Reply


    • nice touch josh wd as always 🙂

      George B 13/04/19 3:45 PM Reply


  • 3.15 Newb Another Batt 80/1 15 places ( only joking smiley)
    taking a chance Oisin delivers him later than Noble has in two goes.
    3.05 Thirsk Kenny the Captain
    lone furrow hopefully
    5.55 Thirsk Masherdal
    Just a matter of fitness here.

    chubnut 13/04/19 9:47 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    1.45 Bangor Gone Platinum BOG 9/2
    6.30 Wolverhampton Zapper Cass BOG 10/3
    6.30 Big Time Maybe BOG 6/1
    ELITE BETS
    3.15 Newbury George Of Hearts BOG 22/1
    4.15 Thirsk Tenax BOG 22/1
    4.45 Ayr Castletown BOG 7/1
    NEW METHOD
    Bangor
    2.15 Shamon Du Berlais BOG 9/4
    2.45 Flight To Milan BOG 3/1
    3.20 Wazowski BOG 4/1
    Ayr
    3.35 Dingo Dollar BOG 10/1
    4.10 Solomon Grey BOG 11/4
    Newbury
    3.50 Just The Man BOG 11/4
    Wolverhampton
    7.00 Marshal Dan BOG 3/1
    7.30 Energia Flavo BOG 8/1
    8.00 Rich Cummins BOG 10/3
    Colin

    cleafe 13/04/19 10:30 AM Reply


  • Just a mention, in case anyone missed it yesterday afternoon, Nick did have one for today which appeared as the very last post yesterday. He may have others later of course. 🙂

    John Unitt 13/04/19 10:31 AM Reply


    • Yeah sorry write ups took half an hour so in hindsight maybe should have posted first. Still waiting for my edit button from Josh 😉

      nickmazur 13/04/19 10:34 AM Reply


      • Hi Nick, know what you mean I`m exhausted after the write ups, but, with success comes the cross we have to bear, people wanting to know why we have picked the bloomin things…haha.
        Half the time i can`t remember whether to write he or she and that is only the trainers… 🙂

        Stewart 13/04/19 6:20 PM Reply


  • Onefortheroadtom Ayr 13:55 1pt e/w-7/1-Has always been highly thought of since beating Lalor and Kilbricken Storm in a bumper. Has been a patchy chase career but going by his last start he seems to finally be putting it together and he has been crying out for a step up to 3 miles. He has a 3m PTP win on good so conditions won’t be an issue. Fry has an excellent record with cheekpieces and in particularity first time cheekpieces having won 3 of his last 4 and4 out of his last 6.

    Brain Power Ayr 14:25 1pt e/w-14/1-We know he isn’t a Grade 1 horse and I can do a better job of jumping fences than he can, but if you look at his hurdle form away from Grade 1s and on good/soft or better ground you get a record of 5 wins and a 2nd from 6 runs including when he hosed up in the Wessex. He is only 4lbs higher than that run after the handicapper generously dropped him 5lb for a race he had no chance of winning and he should go well.

    Impulsive Star Ayr 15:35 1pt e/w-16/1-Would have hated the ground last time out but before that he was an easy winner of the Classic and was staying on. Form has worked out with the 3rd winning the Eidar. I definitely think there is room in his mark. Trainer arguably in better form also and looked overpriced.

    Red Starlight Newbury 15:15 1pt e/w-Advised yesterday at 9/1 and was still available with at least 3 major bookies just before 9am-Ran a very solid race LTO and whilst she couldn’t get to the winner she destroyed the remainder of the field and the handicap was kind enough to leave her on the same mark. That was by far her best seasonal re-appearance and she has won her 2nd start on both of her last 2 years. She also beat Auxerre off pretty much level weights who hosed up in the Lincoln. Will either race up there or quite possibly push the pace. I suspect there is a high chance this is the last time we ever see her in a handicap. Only minor niggle would be if the field does some weird split.

    Humbert Newbury 15:15 1pt e/w-I thought this one was too big. Last run would have blown the cobwebs away. Only 2lbs higher than his 2nd in this last year. Danny back on board for the first time since his last win and if Red doesn’t win he should be there to pick up the pieces.

    Frontispiece Newbury 17:35 1pt e/w-Has always been highly thought of and ran some decent races in her career ahead of horses who now running in class 1s. Has been gelded over the winter. Always runs well off a break. Races prominently, has a good draw and Buick is an eye-catching booking.

    Mr Strutter Thirsk 15:05 1pt e/w-Looked a massive price as plenty here are going to need it. You want to be drawn high at Thirsk. he loves the track with a 3 wins and a 4th from 4 runs. has race fitness on his side. Should be one of the pace angles. Has ran OK in the winter on the AW but placed in his last 2 class 5 starts off this sort of mark. Slight question on the trainer form but he did have a winner just over a month ago and we are getting a massive price to compensate.

    nickmazur 13/04/19 10:32 AM Reply


    • Hi Nick, HUMBERT is also in the Love Racing package. Which is in my tracker on its 2nd run. 🙂

      solentmagpie 13/04/19 10:52 AM Reply


    • 14 points!

      The piggy bank has been raided.

      martin colwell 13/04/19 11:42 AM Reply


    • I had impulsive star top on speed/pace.

      Warren Bottomley 13/04/19 1:19 PM Reply


    • Hi Nick for my records is that a 14pt loss for the day? ty

      Festival Freebie 13/04/19 5:43 PM Reply


      • Yep looks like it on my records. I’m sure he doesn’t want reminding of it haha. He’ll get that back in next few days. some frustrating horses just out of places and Fry’s would have been top 2 at worst if not falling. That’s how it goes, run of the green.

        Josh 13/04/19 5:48 PM Reply


        • thanks Josh, i was not saying it for that..as you know…just i was not sure as some bookies paid the extra place. whats 14 points when you make 500 😉 will still be backing them tomorrow, gl Nick thanks for your work

          Festival Freebie 13/04/19 5:54 PM Reply


          • haha, oh I know. Yep that’s the spirit. Suspect odd one may have hit odd sixth place if some were paying but he doesn’t record them officially unless proper widespread – Scottish Nat had 6 places across board for example.
            That’s the spirit, he’s a big pile to play with, and his loss periods are never too severe and never last too long, historically at least 🙂

            Josh 13/04/19 6:27 PM Reply


            • forgot to say well done for today too josh. very nice pick mate

              Festival Freebie 13/04/19 7:13 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    A 4.45 – Quest For Life on 7th run @ 16
    B 1.45 – Quiz Master on 5th run @ 12
    B 2.45 – Lord Ballim on 3rd run @ 14
    B 3.20 – Wazowski on 3rd run @ 4
    B 4.30 – Overawed on 6th run @ 8
    N 2.10 – Star Terms on 2nd run @ 8
    N 3.15 – Third Time Lucky on 2nd run @ 28
    T 3.05 – Kenny The Captain on 6th run (inc 2 x aw) @ 14
    T 5.55 – Cuppacoco on 5th run (all aw) @ 33
    ………..Jessie Allen on 5th run (inc 2 x aw) @ 20
    aw
    6.30 – Boundsy on 7th run (inc 2 x aw)@ 9
    ………Lexington Place on 5th run (inc 2 x aw) @ 7
    Festival/BRT
    A 3.35 – Vintage Clouds on 3rd run @ 8
    …………Impulsive Star on 1st run @ 16
    …………Arthurs Gift on 1st run @ 50
    A 4.10 – Solomon Grey on 1st run @ 11/4
    N 3.15 – Escobar on 6th run @ 16
    …………Humbert on 1st run @ 25
    3m+
    A 3.35 – Crosshue Bay on 3rd run @ 9
    …………Cogry on 1st run @ 25
    GL

    Titus 13/04/19 10:33 AM Reply


  • Josh At the Liverpool Festival Preview night you said that Ben Pauling was very sweet on Chess Player for the future. Makes its debut in the bumper at Ayr today , it’s already 7/2 so obviously well touted

    finalflight 13/04/19 10:43 AM Reply


    • Ah that’s a good memory! Yep, he is very highly regarded so will be interesting to see how he goes, and interesting they pitch him up here, 7/2 may be on skinny side for a race like that, and he must have seemingly told everyone haha. One for the future, as he must have plenty of nice youngsters so to highlight him was interesting… he can clearly judge, he said Bright Forecast EW at Chelt, placed big odds, his JLT horse EW, not good enough but won NTO at Aintree, and Nestor Park for next year over fences and beyond. Time will tell!

      Josh 13/04/19 10:53 AM Reply


      • He also knew the time of day about other trainers horses when you look back at his views – definitely one to keep on the right side of at a preview night next year and worth tracking next season with his own horses as well

        finalflight 13/04/19 11:28 AM Reply


  • Booom Josh !!!

    Never doubt yourself in extended 3 mile plus chases

    fearherbedroc 11/08/19 2:53 PM Reply


  • Thanks gents, about time I landed on another biggie, nice BFSP also 40.00. If it was going to happen I suppose it would be a national of sorts! That’s 3 winners of that in last 5 years now, so firmly at the top of my fav long distance chase now! I’ll be trying to repeat last year’s Celtic Double, and nap the Irish Nat winner also later in the month. Needed that. It wasn’t in doubt as they left the back for me, knowing the horse, but nearly floored him at the last! urgh. Anyway, on we go. +24 points at the Ayr Festival all in, to advised. Taking on Azzur and verdana appears to have been an error today mind! But, those biggies are what I live for, will try and find a few more asap.

    Josh 11/08/19 2:53 PM Reply


  • There are two 2yo races up at Thirsk today and in both I could not separate the Johnston and Fahey runners. I have done 2 reverse forecasts
    2.00 Xcelente/Kidda
    2.30 Jim Jackson/Ventura Rebel.
    If wither comes off it should cover the other and if both do happy days.

    No luck in the 2yo race at Newbury yesterday, a very difficult race to ‘get’ paddockside. I would not be surprised if Separate is not the Hannon fily for the early season 2yo fillies Cl2 race at Salisbury on the 28th. I will post analysis and pictures tomorrow.

    It’s an ill wind.. I stayed on for the 5f sprint afterwards in which Stake Acclaim looked so fit and happy with himself that it would have been rude not to.
    Hugh

    alpha2 13/04/19 12:34 PM Reply


    • The exacta paid 9.6 and the forecast 7.5 on the 2.30pm so a reasonable return. Would have been better dutching both in both races but still a reasonable result.
      Forgot to mention in my earl;ier post to avoid anything drawn too high at Newbury on the straight course.
      Hugh

      alpha2 13/04/19 2:52 PM Reply


      • Well done Hugh. Top analysis as always.

        Josh 13/04/19 9:34 PM Reply


  • Keep Takingrisks Josh!

    reidrid 13/04/19 3:46 PM Reply


  • Booom Josh !!!

    Never doubt yourself in extended 3 mile plus chases

    fearherbedroc 13/04/19 3:52 PM Reply


  • Nice one Josh, and thanks too Stewart for Dandhu. Nice win for Colin with Gone Platinum too! Go RTP!

    G you playin ‘ at Wolverhampton tonight? 🙂

    Mark Curtis 13/04/19 4:08 PM Reply


    • Mc …nope afraid not old chum been on a&e taxi service all day … mummy head butted the high street paving today …..silly mummy 😉 my life honestly ..lol be back later i hope 😉
      Gl/gb

      George B 13/04/19 4:20 PM Reply


      • Sorry to hear that old chap, hope she’s ok. If you want to trust me on a couple for fun then Sureyiutoldme in the 19.00 and Lady Wolf in the 20.00 are my best. Not a night for going mad anyway. See ya, hope things settle down 🙂

        Mark Curtis 13/04/19 4:32 PM Reply


      • wowzer good lad .. paid for my parking today at the hospital .. 🙂 well done mc 🙂 appreciated in my hour of need !! 🙂

        gl/gb 😉

        George B 13/04/19 10:12 PM Reply


  • Thanks gents, about time I landed on another biggie, nice BFSP also 40.00. If it was going to happen I suppose it would be a national of sorts! That’s 3 winners of that in last 5 years now, so firmly at the top of my fav long distance chase now! I’ll be trying to repeat last year’s Celtic Double, and nap the Irish Nat winner also later in the month. Needed that. It wasn’t in doubt as they left the back for me, knowing the horse, but nearly floored him at the last! urgh. Anyway, on we go. +24 points at the Ayr Festival all in, to advised. Taking on Azzur and verdana appears to have been an error today mind! But, those biggies are what I live for, will try and find a few more asap.

    Josh 13/04/19 4:12 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh you bugger, beat mine into second

    redman 11/08/19 3:04 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh you bugger, beat mine into second

    redman 14/04/19 9:05 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    A 4.45 – Quest For Life on 7th run @ 16
    B 1.45 – Quiz Master on 5th run @ 12
    B 2.45 – Lord Ballim on 3rd run @ 14
    B 3.20 – Wazowski on 3rd run @ 4
    B 4.30 – Overawed on 6th run @ 8
    N 2.10 – Star Terms on 2nd run @ 8
    N 3.15 – Third Time Lucky on 2nd run @ 28
    T 3.05 – Kenny The Captain on 6th run (inc 2 x aw) @ 14
    T 5.55 – Cuppacoco on 5th run (all aw) @ 33
    ………..Jessie Allen on 5th run (inc 2 x aw) @ 20
    aw
    6.30 – Boundsy on 7th run (inc 2 x aw)@ 9
    ………Lexington Place on 5th run (inc 2 x aw) @ 7
    Festival/BRT
    A 3.35 – Vintage Clouds on 3rd run @ 8
    …………Impulsive Star on 1st run @ 16
    …………Arthurs Gift on 1st run @ 50
    A 4.10 – Solomon Grey on 1st run @ 11/4
    N 3.15 – Escobar on 6th run @ 16
    …………Humbert on 1st run @ 25
    3m+
    A 3.35 – Crosshue Bay on 3rd run @ 9
    …………Cogry on 1st run @ 25
    GL

    Titus 11/08/19 2:53 PM Reply


  • Josh At the Liverpool Festival Preview night you said that Ben Pauling was very sweet on Chess Player for the future. Makes its debut in the bumper at Ayr today , it’s already 7/2 so obviously well touted

    finalflight 11/08/19 2:53 PM Reply


    • Ah that’s a good memory! Yep, he is very highly regarded so will be interesting to see how he goes, and interesting they pitch him up here, 7/2 may be on skinny side for a race like that, and he must have seemingly told everyone haha. One for the future, as he must have plenty of nice youngsters so to highlight him was interesting… he can clearly judge, he said Bright Forecast EW at Chelt, placed big odds, his JLT horse EW, not good enough but won NTO at Aintree, and Nestor Park for next year over fences and beyond. Time will tell!

      Josh 11/08/19 3:05 PM Reply


      • He also knew the time of day about other trainers horses when you look back at his views – definitely one to keep on the right side of at a preview night next year and worth tracking next season with his own horses as well

        finalflight 11/08/19 11:08 PM Reply


  • Keep Takingrisks Josh!

    reidrid 11/08/19 2:53 PM Reply


  • Nice one Josh, and thanks too Stewart for Dandhu. Nice win for Colin with Gone Platinum too! Go RTP!

    G you playin ‘ at Wolverhampton tonight? 🙂

    Mark Curtis 11/08/19 2:53 PM Reply


    • Mc …nope afraid not old chum been on a&e taxi service all day … mummy head butted the high street paving today …..silly mummy 😉 my life honestly ..lol be back later i hope 😉
      Gl/gb

      George B 11/08/19 3:05 PM Reply


      • Sorry to hear that old chap, hope she’s ok. If you want to trust me on a couple for fun then Sureyiutoldme in the 19.00 and Lady Wolf in the 20.00 are my best. Not a night for going mad anyway. See ya, hope things settle down 🙂

        Mark Curtis 11/08/19 11:08 PM Reply


      • wowzer good lad .. paid for my parking today at the hospital .. 🙂 well done mc 🙂 appreciated in my hour of need !! 🙂

        gl/gb 😉

        George B 11/08/19 3:05 PM Reply


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