Members Daily Post: 12/04/19 (complete)

‘Through the Card/notes’ , Ayr Tip, Section 1 (complete), Saturday’s Feature Race Stats Pointers + Ayr trainer pointers, test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ayr

2.20 – Our Lucas   (micro age)  w1  I1 10/1 S2 S5

3.25 –

Born Survivor   (m class) 14  w2 H3 I1 4/1 WON 4/1>10/3 

Voix D’Eau   (m dist) 50/1 UP

Monbeg River   (all Hc’s) I3 G1 10/1 S1 S2 S5  UP

Value At Risk   (m class) 14 16/1 S2A 3rd 

4.30 –

Derriana Spirit   (m’s dist and runs) 30  w2 7/1 

Talkofgold   (all Hc’s)  w2 12/1 S2 

 

Fontwell

2.10 –

Magical Thomas   (HcH, m dist)  ES+ H3 I1 G3 13/2 S3A# S4    S1 WON 15/2 / 14.00 BFSP (qualified S1 drifting 11.00+ BFSP) 

Itsonlyrocknroll   (m runs) 10/1 S2 Fell

4.20 –

My Lady Grey   (m dist) G3 14/1 S1 S2 UP

Willyegolassiego   (HcH, m -class)  ES+ G3 16/1 S1 S2A S3A  UP

Jimmy   (m runs)  w1 H1 I1 11/2 UP

 

FLAT

Newbury

None

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 5/44, 11p -6.4)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/66,18p, -30, 2019 Flat TEST 0/1,0p, -2)

 

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Jumps Big Race Tips

3.25 Ayr – Born Survivor – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) WON 6/1>10/3  

as of 18.35, that will be all for ‘big race tips’ 

I thought 6s was more than fair here and on the strength of his form/his profile, especially in these conditions, he’d be entitled to be fav for me. I was slightly surprised he wasn’t put in at 4/1, 9/2.  He’s clearly been kept back for spring targets and the initial plan appears to have been Aintree, but the ground went against him. His best form is on left handed flat tracks with plenty of Good in the going. He’s also 1, 2, 1, 1, in his career when returning 100+ days off and given he tends to run his best races fresh, I can only assume he’ll be prepared to run the race of his life here. Two starts back he won convincingly enough at Wetherby from a couple of decent yardsticks, and that’s some of the best form in this lineup. That day he travelled just off the pace, jumped liked  stag and took it up about 3 from home. He should be able to do the same here if he wishes.

Dan Skelton has won the last two renewals of this, last year with Value At Risk who lines up again, and as per my report below his stats here at this meeting in 2m-2m5.5f handicaps are impressive enough… 6/19,12p, +12. The yard are in decent form and I expect a big run from here here. He’s arguably still unexposed as a chaser and there could be even more to come from him. I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t go close here and he certainly shouldn’t be held up stone cold last! He’s also got form at this meeting, well experience at this meeting, having run in the 3 mile handicap novice chase here last year. He was about 4L off the speed 4 out there, before his stamina gave way. These are his conditions and if he runs his race/improves again, he’s the one to beat for me.

The dangers… well maybe Forth Bridge at 8s will be the one to watch… they changed tactics on him LTO, holding him up and letting him run through horses, and that seemed to make all the difference. I suspect Nico’s quiet style may have played a part also but he’s not on today. If they adopt the same tactics he will need luck, as you always do on a hold up chaser, and if the selection runs his race, he should get first run on him, but he could chase him home and be the one to pick up the pieces if mine fluffs his lines. Beggars Wish may also be a livelier one at bigger odds, if the break has done him good and he got back to the form of his runs last May/October, he’d be a danger to all.

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Daily Tips

None on Friday.

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Ayr ‘through the card’ is at the bottom of the post. 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

3.25 A – Beggars Wish 

Trainers to follow

4.30 A- Vivant 

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<) 

5.05 A – Arthurs Secret 

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Welcome Info/Section 1 Strategies

Report 1 (previously shared) : Where to Begin? : READ HERE>>>

Report 2: Other ideas: READ HERE>>>

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NEW x1

 Stats/Trends Report : HERE>>>

  • Scottish National stats/trends
  • Newbury Spring Cup stats/trends
  • Scottish National Meeting Trainer Pointers
  • Newmarket’s Craven Meeting (next week) Trainer Pointers

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NEW x2

Trainer Track Profiles: Summer Jumps 2019 READ HERE>>>

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SATURDAY’s ‘FEATURE RACE’ STATS POINTERS

 

3.15 Newbury Spring Cup

(the ‘longlist / my shortlist / trainers is an experiment for this year’s Flat season, as I endeavour to find a more systematic approach to these feature handicaps) 

From the report above… 

the 5x 10/10 stats , in the last decade, are 10/48, 17p, +115 

Stats Longlist  (2x races: 1/13,5p, -3) 

…those pointers leave… Ibraz / Ripp Orf / Escobar / George of Hearts / Borodin 

If I focus on the first three 10/10 stats and cross referencing with the ‘odds ratio’ stats which are something new i’ve started looking at… they point to… Wafy + Pattie

…Leaving a ‘long list’ of… 

Ibraz / Ripp Orf / Escobar / George of Hearts / Borodin /Wafy /Pattie

 

My Shortlist (2x races: 0/8,1p, -8) 

TBC

 

Trainers (2x races: 2/4, 2p, +11) 

This idea uses my race stats/trends pointers and cross referencing with those trainers who’ve previously won the race. It’s found the Irish and English Lincoln winners so far this season. On my analysis there are two :- 

  • Wafy
  • Borodin 

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3.35 Scottish Grand National 

These stats/trends are not too useful in truth… applying the 10/10 and 9/9 stats leaves 8/56, 14p in the last decade. That’s only useful to a point and only leaves a list of 10…

Dingo Dollar / Big River / Beware The Bear / Crosshue Boy / Chidswell / Blue Flight / Brian Boranha / Arthurs Gift / Takingrisks / ACDC 

The 10/10 stats leave 16 runners, and from that list, those represented by previous winning trainers in the race…

Dingo Dollar / Blue Flight / Arthurs Gift 

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Ayr Scottish GN Trainer Pointers

‘Qualifiers’ from the report above…

1.30 

Getaway Trump 

Lust For Glory 

2.20 

Champagne Mystery / Chaparral Prince (both 3/1<) 

2.55 

Rhythm Is A Dancer 

Before Midnight (3/1<) 

3.25 

Gold Present / River Wylde 

Born Survivor / Value At Risk 

Tommy Silver (11/2<) 

4.00

Peppay Le Pugh 

5.05

Follow The Bear (3/1<) 

**

 

Festival ‘through the card’: AYR 

(Chelt +36, Aintree +24) 

1.50 – Galvin 5/4

2.20 – Equus Millar 13/2 / Roachdale House 14/1

2.55 – Before Midnight 6/1 / Land Of Smiles 6/1 (added late) 

3.25 – Born Survivor (tip) / Beggars Wish (of those 10s+, most interesting)

4.00 – Peppay Le Pugh 7/2

4.30 – Angel Of Harlem (NM tip)

5.05 -My Way (Nicholls Micro) 10/3

 

Galvin – he does look the most solid fav on the card to my eyes and he is the one to beat. I liked the fact he has small field form, and is thus tactically versatile/has a turn of foot. I’m sure the next two in the market may prefer a stronger pace but maybe i’ve got the Nicholls horse wrong. Connections of Seddon really like him but he hasn’t gone on and has had a few chances now, and runs as if he wants further than this. The Elliot horse will do for me although of course I won’t be shocked if one of the other two takes it, but on what they’ve done/how this race may be run, he’s the one for me.

Equus Millar – he’s solid here and is still open to improvement over 2m. He will need to improve again but that’s possible and it could be he’s best fresh/on his first couple of starts after a break. I’d like to think this has been the plan. Roachdale House looks a lively outsider. He had 400+ days off before his return this season and he looks as if he wants decent ground. He’s run on soft plenty in Ireland when seemingly floundering late on but has some ok form to his name, inc at the Galway Festival. Coleman is 6/16,8p with all his rides here in the last year and the odd Irish Raider does well at this meeting (well, i’m remembering Crosshue Boy who won a race here last year) He’s no forlorn hope at a price. I like the King horse, but I don’t like his price, but wouldn’t be shocked if he runs a big race and is still open to improvement. He hadn’t been asked a question in the Greatwood when coming to grief 2 out (still a long way to go/omitted hurdles up straight) and he needs a solid pace to aim at.

Before Midnight – Henderson has had a few places in handicap hurdles at the meeting but no wins in recent years however this one has been crying out for 3m to my eyes, and even more so when you look at his breeding/relations. He’s got plenty of improvement in him over this trip. He pulled far too hard in soft at Sandown LTO and will clearly need to settle better, but at 6s I thought he was worth chancing. My starting point at this meeting, as it should have been at recent Festivals and wasn’t, was can I make a case for Festival Trainers X horses… well the three at this meeting at Nicholls, Henderson and Skelton. For Chelt/Aintree/Irish meetings, if you add in Colin Tizard, Gordon Elliot, Willie Mullins, Jessie H and Henry De Bromhead then you have ‘the eight’ I think, who’s runners should be top of the list for initial analysis, with JOB creeping up the list. I like Rhythm Is A Dancer, but I don’t like his price – the Nicholl’s horse in the last looks better to my eyes at the odds-  this one is unproven over the trip and while I think he may improve for it, it’s a short price to find out. He’s also never raced LH before, which is odd, and I wonder if that’s been deliberate. Money is coming for Landofsmiles  and I can see why, given he arrives in form, fit, and was staying on over 23f LTO. He needs to improve but is unexposed over this trip and in decent ground. Actually, at 6s the pair, it may be wise to have both onside!

Born Survivor – he’s covered above in section 2. I was surprised he wasn’t put in at 4s in truth, hence why I thought 6s looked enticing, but he’s probably the right price now. If you want to add another one it’s a toss up I think between Forth Bridge and Beggars Wish, the latter the bigger price at 12s/14s. The former was transformed for a change of tactics LTO and they may work again, but the idea of knowingly backing a hold up chaser, in any race, gives me cold sweats. They really are not the type to back for long term success and I can only think they will ride him cold again. That may make 8s about right,but if he has turned a corner, he’s a danger- i’m still not sure on him in a battle though, if he has to get down and dirty. Beggars Wish…. well his wins last May and in October are some of the best performances in this race, from any of them, in their careers to date arguably. The break may have done him good and i’d like to think he’ll be primed for this. He does clearly stay 20/21f+ and I did have a concern about whether this would happen too quickly, but it probably means Sean will be aggressive on him, and have him handy. If he’s travelling comfortably near the front, maybe tracking Born Survivor, he could give my tip something to think about over the last couple.

Peppay Le Pugh – he hits the Skelton pointers and looks solid enough. He can be keen but his the form of his last chase run four starts back is solid enough. 2m on decent ground are ideal for him, and if he settles, he won’t be far away. He’s hard fit and they may have been running him in novice hurdles to try and teach him how to race, without impacting his chase mark – i’m not sure if that’s working or not but there could be some pace to settle behind here, esp if Cook is aggressive .

Angel Of Harlem – i’ve deferred to Nick’s tip in this, he explains his case well below, and I can’t disagree with that. He will do!

My Way – he hits my Nicholl’s handicap micro angle from the report above, the yard are going well, and I can make a strong case. 10/3 looks fine, even more so for an ‘at the races’ poke. He runs as if he will relish every single yard of this trip and improve for it. He does look the most interesting in this line up to me.

So, that will do. 9 ‘through the card’ pokes, 1 official tip from section 2. Chelt and Aintree went very well on the ‘through the card’ front, sadly much better than my handicap ‘tipping’ which still keeps me awake at night. The betting gods will strike me back down again with these soon enough, but hopefully a handful of winners/profit above. We shall see!

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

70 Responses

  1. 2.20 Ayr, Equus Millar, 1.5 points each way at 8/1. Although he has top weight to carry, if we ignore his last two runs, the horse has solid winning form at two miles, which is what he drops back to here.
    4.30 Ayr, Printing Dollars, 1 point each way at 9/1. If we ignore her last run the horse had good winning form. Daryl Jacob rides instead of Sam W C and the trainer likes to have a go at these ‘mini festivals’.

    Good luck.

  2. Angel of Harlem Ayr 16:30 1pt e/w-9/1-Yet to be out of the places on good ground and ran in a number of races which have worked out well including her last race which has thrown up a lot of winners of races much better than this. Won fresh on her first start for Olly Murphy so the break shouldn’t be an issue although given she is his only runner tomorrow I doubt he would making the trip up just for a day out either particularly as he doesn’t have any runners here on Saturday either. Should be able to race prominently. Trainer is 4/15, 7p at the track and a bold run is expected.

  3. Hi Josh,

    myself and fellow RTP member Al Hart, are heading up to Scotland for the Ayr meeting so hopefully yourself and the rest of the RTP faithful will give us some winners to cheer home!

    1. Hi Salman, good to hear. I think a couple others of the RTP tribe are off to Ayr also and they asked me to do a ‘through the card’ which i’ve added in section 4 above – and will now get to work! I was intending to do that anyway, as my ‘Festival through the card eyes’ have been the only glimmer of light for me at jumps festivals so far this year!
      Josh

      1. Cheers Josh,

        another Joe Farrell wouldn’t be bad!

        Will be in the Club Enclosure if any RTP folk fancy meeting up!

  4. 11th April Newbury 5f Mdn Stakes
    4.25 Album, Klopp Of The Kop
    3.75 Chattanooga Boy
    3.25 Littleton Hall, Separate
    2.75 Isobar Wind
    I have had a couple of good wins at Newbury with Martin Meade 2yos on debut but the market now seems to have cottoned on, similarly Clive Cox’s debutants do not get overlooked nowadays. No value to be had with the most likely winners. It will be interesting to see my first Cable Bay progeny, Separate, the worry is that for Hannon to have a filly out early she is likely to be, like his Ivawood debut on Monday at Windsor, either undercooked or very small. Only a look at her in the paddock will tell, not to forget that Tiggy Wiggy started her career this early.
    Judging by the way David Evans’ filly won at Windsor on Monday anything he runs in April needs a second look. That was a 25/1 shot, albeit in a poor field with the favourite, also trained by him withdrawn at the start. Isobar Wind is by Baltic King who is not used much and in 9 years has only had 28 2yo winners but at a 34% strike rate cannot be dismissed. The fact that he puts David Probert up should not be overlooked. Often if they are only there for the run he uses a stable junior jock or Liam Keniry.

    If I was not going I might have a bit of e/w around 20’s but I shall take pictures and hopefully be able to dig out a winner paddockside.
    Hugh

  5. 2.20 Ayr, Equus Millar, 1.5 points each way at 8/1. Although he has top weight to carry, if we ignore his last two runs, the horse has solid winning form at two miles, which is what he drops back to here.
    4.30 Ayr, Printing Dollars, 1 point each way at 9/1. If we ignore her last run the horse had good winning form. Daryl Jacob rides instead of Sam W C and the trainer likes to have a go at these ‘mini festivals’.

    Good luck.

  6. Angel of Harlem Ayr 16:30 1pt e/w-9/1-Yet to be out of the places on good ground and ran in a number of races which have worked out well including her last race which has thrown up a lot of winners of races much better than this. Won fresh on her first start for Olly Murphy so the break shouldn’t be an issue although given she is his only runner tomorrow I doubt he would making the trip up just for a day out either particularly as he doesn’t have any runners here on Saturday either. Should be able to race prominently. Trainer is 4/15, 7p at the track and a bold run is expected.

  7. Hi Josh,

    myself and fellow RTP member Al Hart, are heading up to Scotland for the Ayr meeting so hopefully yourself and the rest of the RTP faithful will give us some winners to cheer home!

    1. Hi Salman, good to hear. I think a couple others of the RTP tribe are off to Ayr also and they asked me to do a ‘through the card’ which i’ve added in section 4 above – and will now get to work! I was intending to do that anyway, as my ‘Festival through the card eyes’ have been the only glimmer of light for me at jumps festivals so far this year!
      Josh

      1. Cheers Josh,

        another Joe Farrell wouldn’t be bad!

        Will be in the Club Enclosure if any RTP folk fancy meeting up!

  8. today’s selections.
    yr
    2-20. Equus Millar 7-1
    3-25. Forth Bridge 9-1
    4-30. Midnight Glory 15-2
    all 1/2 pt ew

  9. 11th April Newbury 5f Mdn Stakes
    4.25 Album, Klopp Of The Kop
    3.75 Chattanooga Boy
    3.25 Littleton Hall, Separate
    2.75 Isobar Wind
    I have had a couple of good wins at Newbury with Martin Meade 2yos on debut but the market now seems to have cottoned on, similarly Clive Cox’s debutants do not get overlooked nowadays. No value to be had with the most likely winners. It will be interesting to see my first Cable Bay progeny, Separate, the worry is that for Hannon to have a filly out early she is likely to be, like his Ivawood debut on Monday at Windsor, either undercooked or very small. Only a look at her in the paddock will tell, not to forget that Tiggy Wiggy started her career this early.
    Judging by the way David Evans’ filly won at Windsor on Monday anything he runs in April needs a second look. That was a 25/1 shot, albeit in a poor field with the favourite, also trained by him withdrawn at the start. Isobar Wind is by Baltic King who is not used much and in 9 years has only had 28 2yo winners but at a 34% strike rate cannot be dismissed. The fact that he puts David Probert up should not be overlooked. Often if they are only there for the run he uses a stable junior jock or Liam Keniry.

    If I was not going I might have a bit of e/w around 20’s but I shall take pictures and hopefully be able to dig out a winner paddockside.
    Hugh

  10. today’s selections.
    yr
    2-20. Equus Millar 7-1
    3-25. Forth Bridge 9-1
    4-30. Midnight Glory 15-2
    all 1/2 pt ew

  11. RECENT TIPS
    Daily aw
    K 5.40 – Biotic on 4th run @ 50
    Festival
    B 6.00 – La Sorelita on 1st run @ 3
    GL

  12. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    5.05 Ayr From Eden BOG 4/1
    NEW METHOD
    5.05 Ayr Stop The World BOG 6/1
    6.15 Kempton Moraawed BOG 2/1
    Colin

  13. Hi Josh
    Just reading the comments today from Salman and yourself about RTP members heading to the races at Ayr. If we all had a badge or something similar that we could wear at meetings we would be able to identify fellow subscribers. It could be something very tasteful of course. Just a thought…..

    1. Hi Chris, ah, RTP raceside merchandise haha. Well it’s a thought. No idea what we could use mind. A scarf for the winter months. Some sort of badge maybe.

  14. mc of the nether regions are you reading me old chum ! ??
    yes have a few for kempers tonite will splurt them out later .. but still in the the thick of newbury in hrb land …….. be with you soon ! 🙂

    inw of da sbc
    gb 🙂

    1. Yes, reading you loud and clear G, been away from the screen cleaning while Mrs MC tends the allotment. I’m withholding views on the flat turf as much as possible, when AW tails off will of course switch.

      Taking the dawg out soon so back in around an hour,anytime you burp the list out just post at the end of this message.

      I have a few very high T/J stats and some interesting trainer comments to look into.

      Catch you later mi amigo 🙂

      1. sbc reconnnonnascents reporting back sir :

        (56) THE DOYLERS ON THE GAME
        6.15 Kempton Ghaith Doyle, James Palmer, Hugo
        JUST NOT SURE MR DOYLE HS TOTALLY GOT HIS EYE IN JUST YET ( BUT HE’S HAD A COUPLE SO FAR )

        (45) KEMPTON PARK ALL WEATHER POLY N CERTAINTIES
        6.15 Kempton Magical Ride Queally, T P Spencer, Richard
        VERY POSITIVE ON COURSE CLASS MONTH & DISTANCE

        (56) THE DOYLERS ON THE GAME
        6.45 Kempton Converter (IRE) Doyle, James Channon, M R
        JUST NOT SURE MR DOYLE HS TOTALLY GOT HIS EYE IN JUST YET ( BUT HE’S HAD A COUPLE SO FAR )

        (66) THE SBC ALL WEATHER HANDICAPPING USUAL SUSPECTS
        6.45 Kempton Mawakib Atzeni, Andrea Varian, Roger
        GOOD JOCKEY COMBO AT KEMPTON …… JUST NOT IN APRIL ???????

        (39) KEMPTON PARK ALL WEATHER POLY N CERTAINTIES
        7.15 Kempton Cafe Espresso Doyle, Hollie Watson, Archie
        SYSTEM POSITIVE !

        (45) KEMPTON PARK ALL WEATHER POLY N CERTAINTIES
        7.45 Kempton Poetic Motion Bennett, Charlie Boyle, J R
        SYSTEM POSITIVE TO A POINT GOOD DRAW

        (20) AW TIFS N JIFS NON HCP MONTHLY CLASS PURPLE PATCH
        (50) TRAINERS N JOCKEYS IN THE PURPLE PATCH CLUB
        7.45 Kempton Purbeck Gem Cronin, S C Brisland, Robyn
        POSITIVES FROM BOTH SYSTEMS

        Not much from the gb magic box really .. all in all 🙁 …. ( probably sigh of relief all round 🙂 )

        gl /gb 🙂

  15. RECENT TIPS
    Daily aw
    K 5.40 – Biotic on 4th run @ 50
    Festival
    B 6.00 – La Sorelita on 1st run @ 3
    GL

  16. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    5.05 Ayr From Eden BOG 4/1
    NEW METHOD
    5.05 Ayr Stop The World BOG 6/1
    6.15 Kempton Moraawed BOG 2/1
    Colin

    1. Yep, and S1 John 🙂 14.00 BFSP, so a double for them, if anyone follows a systematic jumps strategy hopefully they had it x1 for one of them, or even x2! 🙂 The S3A# S1 jumps portfolio needed that, but that’s how it goes, a few more would be welcome, hasn’t really got going this year as yet.

      1. Great start for stats Josh esp as I have just started to follow them more systematically since your last update, only complaint I did not have more on!…always the punters lament. Great stuff!

  17. Outside if the system stats and stats for Josh’s picks, I think it would really help if there was some sort of stats section on here for the members who post tips every day. Must be difficult for new members.

    1. Hi Darren, until I get some software built sadly it is what it is at the moment, unless someone wishes to keep tabs on everyone, it’s pretty hard. There will some recording/tipping league software on here at some point this year, that’s the aim, but it’s some investment, and my techie/coding friend doesn’t have time until May onwards. I don’t have the admin time to keep track, but that’s why I ask those who post to put up their figures at the end/beginning of every month, then a case of flicking through those etc.

      They do monthly updates but in truth until someone has 6 months + built up in live play of ‘tips’ I wouldn’t advise anyone following people in. I am always cautious advising following someone who’s method I don’t really know or who’s rules are secret haha.

      There’s a a few reason’s I advise starting with Nick, if you’re going to start following anyone’s tips, given the length of time he’s been posting, his success, and I know his approach/rationale etc. He’s the only one I follow religiously in truth. But I also don’t like having 10s of bets per day.

      Stewart somewhat proved himself this jumps season I think, decent profits.

      Hugh’s flat maiden picks have done well from memory, but in any case he’s in the ‘expert’ category when it comes to that specialism, not sure on his figures for ‘tips’ last year though

      Colin is the other who posts regularly. His Colin’s bets look to be worth following now we know that those under 3/1 aren’t worth bothering with. His other two methods are new enough and in ‘test mode’ in my eyes.

      Francis’ jumps system which is on it’s summer holidays proved itself also, albeit I don’t know the rules but provided he doesn’t change them, with any luck that repeats next year.

      You can’t back everything, and plenty haven’t been posting for long enough.

      I know it’s not ideal but the only solution will be software, and it’s a positive, in that we/i’m lucky enough to get so many people posting, but aware it’s a problem I need to find a solution to.

      The worst thing you can do is follow too many/ dive in when unproven. It’s not much fun, trust me! 🙂
      Josh

    1. I’m almost as shocked as you haha – let’s not crow, that 2019 Big Tips festival pile needs plenty of work! But that boosts the mood, he just jumped off the page at 6s as likely to do just that, glad he did. That performance no shock. Lovely horse in those conditions.

  18. Hi Josh
    Just reading the comments today from Salman and yourself about RTP members heading to the races at Ayr. If we all had a badge or something similar that we could wear at meetings we would be able to identify fellow subscribers. It could be something very tasteful of course. Just a thought…..

    1. Hi Chris, ah, RTP raceside merchandise haha. Well it’s a thought. No idea what we could use mind. A scarf for the winter months. Some sort of badge maybe.

  19. Early one for tomorrow:

    Spring Cup: Red Starlight 1pt e/w 9/1

    Anything else more than likely in the morning.

  20. mc of the nether regions are you reading me old chum ! ??
    yes have a few for kempers tonite will splurt them out later .. but still in the the thick of newbury in hrb land …….. be with you soon ! 🙂

    inw of da sbc
    gb 🙂

    1. Yes, reading you loud and clear G, been away from the screen cleaning while Mrs MC tends the allotment. I’m withholding views on the flat turf as much as possible, when AW tails off will of course switch.

      Taking the dawg out soon so back in around an hour,anytime you burp the list out just post at the end of this message.

      I have a few very high T/J stats and some interesting trainer comments to look into.

      Catch you later mi amigo 🙂

      1. sbc reconnnonnascents reporting back sir :

        (56) THE DOYLERS ON THE GAME
        6.15 Kempton Ghaith Doyle, James Palmer, Hugo
        JUST NOT SURE MR DOYLE HS TOTALLY GOT HIS EYE IN JUST YET ( BUT HE’S HAD A COUPLE SO FAR )

        (45) KEMPTON PARK ALL WEATHER POLY N CERTAINTIES
        6.15 Kempton Magical Ride Queally, T P Spencer, Richard
        VERY POSITIVE ON COURSE CLASS MONTH & DISTANCE

        (56) THE DOYLERS ON THE GAME
        6.45 Kempton Converter (IRE) Doyle, James Channon, M R
        JUST NOT SURE MR DOYLE HS TOTALLY GOT HIS EYE IN JUST YET ( BUT HE’S HAD A COUPLE SO FAR )

        (66) THE SBC ALL WEATHER HANDICAPPING USUAL SUSPECTS
        6.45 Kempton Mawakib Atzeni, Andrea Varian, Roger
        GOOD JOCKEY COMBO AT KEMPTON …… JUST NOT IN APRIL ???????

        (39) KEMPTON PARK ALL WEATHER POLY N CERTAINTIES
        7.15 Kempton Cafe Espresso Doyle, Hollie Watson, Archie
        SYSTEM POSITIVE !

        (45) KEMPTON PARK ALL WEATHER POLY N CERTAINTIES
        7.45 Kempton Poetic Motion Bennett, Charlie Boyle, J R
        SYSTEM POSITIVE TO A POINT GOOD DRAW

        (20) AW TIFS N JIFS NON HCP MONTHLY CLASS PURPLE PATCH
        (50) TRAINERS N JOCKEYS IN THE PURPLE PATCH CLUB
        7.45 Kempton Purbeck Gem Cronin, S C Brisland, Robyn
        POSITIVES FROM BOTH SYSTEMS

        Not much from the gb magic box really .. all in all 🙁 …. ( probably sigh of relief all round 🙂 )

        gl /gb 🙂

          1. SBC Kempton update

            4.35 – trainer keen on chances of Frenchmans Creek, worth a small bet.

            5.10 – as above for Milistorm, small EW, would be gutted to miss it.

            5.40 I really like Medieval in this. I know it was fancied for the Spring Cup tomorrow, not sure if it was balloted out or switched to this. Also doing Capriolette EW, trainer very bullish about a much improved run today.

            6.15 – I don’t like these races! But I have learnt to my financial advantage that your systems do come good in these contests so am going in with both Ghaith and Magical Ryde. I also have to have a small interest in Come From the Dark as the trainer/jockey combo are 80%w/100%p over 12 months.

            6.45 – prefer Mawakib of the two but might swerve at the price.

            7:15 – I respect your enthusiasm for Cafe Expresso, which is tempered by her 6lb penalty and extra furlong. Might also go with Padamavati, same T/J percentages as Come From the Dark.

            7.45 – this race is a bit of a nightmare. I can see why your two could be fancied but I also like Black Truffle and Cristal Palace Cat. I might sit it out for now and watch the market from 7.35 onwards!

            That’s it then G, many thanks for your system burps. Have fun tonite!

          2. brilliant thanks mc ..will look into all now .. thanks for your news 😉
            back later

          3. Meant to say, Jamie O very very keen on chance of Capofaro in the 5 .10 Thinks he has improved from when he hosed up last run 🙂

            Colin, you may be interested too after last time!!

          4. Thanks Mark already got the dosh on!
            Those noisy birds in the background should be plucked and in the oven!!!! would only be a starter.
            Colin

          5. Well that went well! Thank God for your Cafe G, prevented total wipeout
            🙂

          6. yep i was right about the doyler … espresso anyone !! 🙂
            tomorrow will soon be here
            thanks for riding with me there mc .. appreciated as always ! 🙂
            gl/gb

          7. Yes, if I blow out on the Spring Cup and Scottish National there’s always Wolverhampton!

            Thank you and goodnight.

    1. Yep, and S1 John 🙂 14.00 BFSP, so a double for them, if anyone follows a systematic jumps strategy hopefully they had it x1 for one of them, or even x2! 🙂 The S3A# S1 jumps portfolio needed that, but that’s how it goes, a few more would be welcome, hasn’t really got going this year as yet.

      1. Great start for stats Josh esp as I have just started to follow them more systematically since your last update, only complaint I did not have more on!…always the punters lament. Great stuff!

        1. Oh that’s always the first emotion after a winner haha. Just start small and build up, i’ve every confidence in those two, and if they repeat last year, then happy days. What with Flat S6, those 3 should pull in decent profits, but S1/ flat S6 do play in an odds range which of course means the odd uncomfortable losing run. IF they repeat last year it’s 225 points, but +150 would be ok!! 🙂

          1. No worries about losing runs Josh….used to that !!!!!!…as I type congrats on Born Survivor…yep was on that too so great stuff….

  21. Outside if the system stats and stats for Josh’s picks, I think it would really help if there was some sort of stats section on here for the members who post tips every day. Must be difficult for new members.

    1. Hi Darren, until I get some software built sadly it is what it is at the moment, unless someone wishes to keep tabs on everyone, it’s pretty hard. There will some recording/tipping league software on here at some point this year, that’s the aim, but it’s some investment, and my techie/coding friend doesn’t have time until May onwards. I don’t have the admin time to keep track, but that’s why I ask those who post to put up their figures at the end/beginning of every month, then a case of flicking through those etc.

      They do monthly updates but in truth until someone has 6 months + built up in live play of ‘tips’ I wouldn’t advise anyone following people in. I am always cautious advising following someone who’s method I don’t really know or who’s rules are secret haha.

      There’s a a few reason’s I advise starting with Nick, if you’re going to start following anyone’s tips, given the length of time he’s been posting, his success, and I know his approach/rationale etc. He’s the only one I follow religiously in truth. But I also don’t like having 10s of bets per day.

      Stewart somewhat proved himself this jumps season I think, decent profits.

      Hugh’s flat maiden picks have done well from memory, but in any case he’s in the ‘expert’ category when it comes to that specialism, not sure on his figures for ‘tips’ last year though

      Colin is the other who posts regularly. His Colin’s bets look to be worth following now we know that those under 3/1 aren’t worth bothering with. His other two methods are new enough and in ‘test mode’ in my eyes.

      Francis’ jumps system which is on it’s summer holidays proved itself also, albeit I don’t know the rules but provided he doesn’t change them, with any luck that repeats next year.

      You can’t back everything, and plenty haven’t been posting for long enough.

      I know it’s not ideal but the only solution will be software, and it’s a positive, in that we/i’m lucky enough to get so many people posting, but aware it’s a problem I need to find a solution to.

      The worst thing you can do is follow too many/ dive in when unproven. It’s not much fun, trust me! 🙂
      Josh

    1. I’m almost as shocked as you haha – let’s not crow, that 2019 Big Tips festival pile needs plenty of work! But that boosts the mood, he just jumped off the page at 6s as likely to do just that, glad he did. That performance no shock. Lovely horse in those conditions.

  22. Early one for tomorrow:

    Spring Cup: Red Starlight 1pt e/w 9/1

    Anything else more than likely in the morning.

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