Members Daily Post: 11/04/19 (complete)

Tip x1 + preview, Section 1 (complete), test zone, reports inc TTP Summer Jumps

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Huntingdon

3.50 – World Premier   (micro class) 9/2 

4.20 – Barton Rose   (m class) H3 I3 G1 5/1 S4 2nd 

 

Wetherby

5.40 –

Wigwam Wiggle   (m class)  w2 H3 9/1  BD/UP

It’s All About Me   (m class) I3 G3 7/1  S1 UP

 

Irish Bonus

Limerick

4.45 – Alto Esqua   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 5/1 S3A  3rd

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 5/43, 11p -5.4)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 3/65,17p, -36, 2019 Flat TEST 0/1,0p, -2)

 

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Daily Tips

5.05 Wetherby – Lough Salt – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP 11/2 – well moving on, he wasn’t really given a chance, no need to be that far off the pace and LA never got him jumping at all, that was over before they left the straight. The 101 rated chaser takes it. Nowehere near him at 12s this morning. 

that’s all, 08.48, write up…

This one should be second fav in here I think and i’m scratching my head as to why he isn’t 9/2, 5/1. Maybe i’ll find out in a few hours time! This poor horse is forever bumping into one over fences at his favourite track, and if Fingerontheswitch is tuned up fully, he may do so again – but 9/4 is looking on the short side given the break and his mark, although this is clearly a much weaker race than LTO. I’d have it between the two of them.

Lough Salt – well his form stacks up and Wetherby is his track – he’s 2/12,7p here in handicaps, 0/6,3p in handicap chases. His last three Rating Post Ratings have been consistent, and career bests. 5 starts ago here, on ground possibly softer than ideal, he ran a close second in a C3 novice handicap chase where he had an unexposed Richards horse in front rated 123. He was beaten 3/4 of a length. In behind him was Blue Flight, making chase debut off 121 – he’d go on to win his next 3, inc beating  Black Corton at Kelso (admittedly he was slightly below par) and running with credit off 146 when last seen. That’s decent form. As is his last run over 24f here on good ground three starts back on 19th Feb – the front two were well clear there and he lost out in a head-bob. He was beaten by a progressive one there also, who’d hack up around Kempton on his next start. That was the last time Leighton was on also, and he seems to get on with him best especially over fences. Two starts back he ran over 21f in soft, which wouldn’t have suited but he stayed on again into 2nd. He was beaten 9l here 13 days ago over 21f, on good and that appeared to happen too quickly for him when they all kicked for home. It was also a first run in a eye-shield which he may not have enjoyed, and the CP return here.

Famous last words but he does look an EW banker for those of you who prefer such an approach 🙂 Of course these recent runs may catch up with him but for the first time in ideal conditions (Wetherby/3m+/Good+) he may actually get a strong pace to sit off also. Plenty of these like to get on with it and it should be a strong gallop. Hopefully Leighton doesn’t anchor him right out the back though. Everything points to a solid run and he has the class, having won a C3 handicap hurdle around this C D off the same mark. He will appreciate this lighter weight on his back and there should be no excuse. He deserves a chase win around here and we shall see if today is the day, with that cliff edge fast approaching. He doesn’t have an attitude problem, those runner up/placed efforts have just been a case of bumping into one just too good on the day.

Of the rest… well given the balance of his form Fingerontheswitch is the correct fav and you have to assume he’s tuned up for this. However he does return after 152 days and is 6lb higher than for his win two starts back, albeit The Paddy Pie has since franked the form. He’s solid, but I want to take him on.

I really couldn’t have the rest at the odds. Mercers is 11 and returns after 126 days and he could be a C4 animal now. Tanit River is too inconsistent, had another 85 days off, and his better recent form is on soft. He has the ability but I can’t have him given his last two runs. Newtown Lad is solid but is effectively up 8lb from his last run, is up in class, and his best form has been with cut in the ground. Likewise with Groundunderrepair who’s price/market support I can’t figure out! He has had a wind op and gets a 1st visor, but even if they work, his best form has been in soft/heavy. Not for me, and certainly at those odds. If he wins then so be it. Silver Man is 12 and returns after 284 days, i’ll pass. Blue Kascade is 12 and looks out of form, that would be a surprise result and even at his best may not be good enough to take this. Never Up is short enough given his best form is in softer , he’s up in class and up in trip by 4f- he’s never struck me as a strong stayer but you never know. I couldn’t have him at 13/2. Bafana Blue – another who’s been nibbled at that I couldn’t understand. I’m not sure on what form he’s entitled to go close off 101 here, unless everything else just doesn’t show up.

So that’s that. Lough Salt is the overpriced one to my eyes, and I just hope he repeats his last run here under Leighton, as that should be good enough to put him bang there, possibly duelling with the fav as they approach the last! Hopefully his race fitness may help win the day. A muggy 6 to beat 9 forecast (reverse…) for small change may be an option, for fun, if I have read this right…

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Fifty Shades took the staying chase at Warwick, enhancing his trainer’s record in staying handicaps.

I have now noted that in chases / handicaps / 25f or further … Christian Williams is now 9/35, 14p, +33 SP, +71 BFSP or so.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide)

3.25 W – Morraman

4.00 W – Quids In

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.15 H – Zalvados

Irish Angles

5.20 L – Sizing Joshua (12/1< best)

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2019/18 

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)

2.55 W – Fair Loch

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book

5.40 W – Wig Wam Wiggle (short term, guide)

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Welcome Info/Section 1 Strategies

Report 1 (previously shared) : Where to Begin? : READ HERE>>>

Report 2: Other ideas: READ HERE>>>

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NEW x1

 Stats/Trends Report : HERE>>>

  • Scottish National stats/trends
  • Newbury Spring Cup stats/trends
  • Scottish National Meeting Trainer Pointers
  • Newmarket’s Craven Meeting (next week) Trainer Pointers

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NEW x2

Trainer Track Profiles: Summer Jumps 2019 READ HERE>>>

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

80 Responses

    1. Put up Tues and Wed on FREE POST as normal only time they appear on members post is when Josh does not put up Freepost because of the big racing festivals
      Colin

    2. (hit ‘home’ at the top and you’ll see all posts, inc free, guest, members etc. Other members/readers Golf Tips always in Free posts – the green ones- on Tues/Wed, outside of Chelt Fest when there are no free posts)

    1. Put up Tues and Wed on FREE POST as normal only time they appear on members post is when Josh does not put up Freepost because of the big racing festivals
      Colin

    2. (hit ‘home’ at the top and you’ll see all posts, inc free, guest, members etc. Other members/readers Golf Tips always in Free posts – the green ones- on Tues/Wed, outside of Chelt Fest when there are no free posts)

  1. Matt Fitzpatrick
    This year his new caddie is the experienced Billy Foster who for many years was Lee Westwoods caddie and had the bag twice when Westwood finished 2nd twice at Augusta, he also caddied for Ballesteros, Garcia, Bjorn, Darren Clarke and one week only Tiger Woods.
    Knew Matt won the US Amateur in 2013, did not realize that he was the first Englishman to win it in over 100 years.
    So with Billy alongside him with his wealth of Knowledge can young Matt go up another level by the end of the year ?
    Colin.

      1. Not thinking put it down to old age, had watched the local news and they did a good review of him, will you transfer it to Freepost when you put it up, for have put him up at 110/1 this week.
        No doubt someone will name a horse after him in the future.
        Colin.

  2. today’s selections.
    Wetherby.
    3-25. Steel Wave 7-1
    4-00. Jack Lamb 13-2
    5-05. Tanit River 12-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

  3. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    H 1.40 – See The Sea on 1st run @ 9
    H 2.10 – Bossingey Bay on 3rd run @ 6
    W 4.00 – Jack Lamb on 1st run @ 15/2
    GL

  4. ….ouch hammered a bit to much into the celtic machine e/w last night ..lol .. a couple of winners and a whole hat full of places yesterday and i thought i was barney curley last night …it’s good to be brought down to earth .. but still a profit after the free love we were spreading yesterday ! so here we go again ……
    S.B.C. ROPEY RUNNERS TODAY :
    2.00 Chelmsford City 8 Dont Do It (IRE)
    3.35 Chelmsford City 4 Bye Bye Hong Kong (USA)
    3.35 Chelmsford City 5 Certain Lad
    3.35 Chelmsford City 6 Dark Vision (IRE)
    3.35 Chelmsford City 7 Fanaar (IRE)
    3.35 Chelmsford City 9 U S S Michigan (USA)
    4.10 Chelmsford City 8 Waqaas
    4.40 Chelmsford City 2 Viola Park
    5.15 Chelmsford City 8 Admiral Rooke (IRE)
    5.15 Chelmsford City 7 Hurricane Alert
    5.15 Chelmsford City 5 Shackled N Drawn (USA)
    5.30 Newcastle 5 Embers Glow
    5.50 Chelmsford City 3 Cash N Carrie (IRE)
    5.50 Chelmsford City 5 Clement (IRE)
    6.00 Newcastle 6 Employer (IRE)
    6.00 Newcastle 5 Grandee (IRE)
    6.30 Newcastle 1 Distant Mirage
    7.00 Newcastle 2 What Will Be (IRE)
    7.00 Newcastle 6 Zoom Out
    7.30 Newcastle 2 Classy Cailin (IRE)
    7.30 Newcastle 13 Sylviacliffs (FR)
    8.00 Newcastle 6 Alnasherat
    8.00 Newcastle 7 Bataar (IRE)
    8.00 Newcastle 8 Conaglen
    8.00 Newcastle 11 Lewis Slack
    8.00 Newcastle 12 Siglo Six
    All untrimmed just initial spurt out from the sooper commputer
    that’s all team sbc ! 😉
    You know the drill !!
    gl/gb
    v.p. gb 😉

    1. Thanks G, very frustrating last night, Foxrush running very well a few necks away from winning. At least May Sonic and Zorros did well.

      Doing Chelmsford this morning, will post back here later. I’m already liking the look of your computer reflux burping 🙂

      1. SBC Chelmsford Update

        Well VP G, the 3.35 looks a hot race for Chelmers. I think your compooter has definitely picked the winner the only question being which damn one? Obvs Aidan hasn’t come over just to look around the town and have a coffee so you have to fear his runner but my beloved T/J stats go for Bye Bye Hong Kong 50% win/62% place over last year.

        2.00 – I like Don’t Do It but he has not been at his best lately. He could well pop up but does Compass Point appeal? Is it a Brisland one runner special? (must admit haven’t counted lol). Also I see our old friend Carvelas is running and the Hipster has selected him. Probert not on, but this monkey will come in again at some point. Usher is quite keen on Chantresse, could run into a place. Tricky, not one to go mad on.

        4.10 – yours looks interesting EW at a price, also like Quick Breath (trainer keen on the Lambourn website) and Unforgiving Minute (Hipster again!) for the win.

        4.40- really like Viola Park in this (Colin has also tipped, he’s inside my head today lol). Usher thinks Mezmaar could outrun his odds so will save on that one.

        5.15 – don’t like Shackled but Admiral Rooke and Hurricane Alert look appealing. The Admiral looks well drawn to burn them off dropping down to 5f.

        5.50 – your magic machine hasn’t burped any out for this one but I like Tha’ir very speculatively EW. Our winner Clement runs again so is a live danger if yesterday didn’t take too much out of him.

        Quite a few T/J selections of interest at Newcastle tonite so will have a closer look during the afternoon.

        Adios for now 🙂

        1. cheers will be a great help for this arvers 🙂 report back later .
          Yes colin’s ( the god father in my eyes and must be obeyed or at least respected 🙂 ) duplicates are very very interesting to me 😉

          gl/gb

        2. Hi Mark
          Looked at Admiral Rooke for Colins bets but its record over 5 furlongs, ran only 3 times
          4th from 8 runners
          7 from 10
          6 from 11
          Ran a total of 26 races and never won, wished never looked at the race again for would not have put it up on the other 2 lines.

          Nothing for me to risk my money even at 3/1, before everyone shouts because have put it up on the other 2 lines, i have backed him on both for my stakes are smaller than my Colin bet stakes and the other 2
          methods are system based and i do get it wrong, and Appleby is a very clever trainer.
          Colin.

      2. mc all weather magician …………
        Up against it today old bean … work mainly .. 🙁 .. and i am taxi for the mrs who needs to go to the vet …………………………………… well for our dog obviously 🙂 ( merlin has lumps and bumps everywhere and now has a swollen jaw bone 🙁 ) … not sure how much refining i can do before chelms starts .. but as you know i work like well oiled machine so lets see if time is kind to me 🙂

        gl/gb

  5. today’s selections.
    Wetherby.
    3-25. Steel Wave 7-1
    4-00. Jack Lamb 13-2
    5-05. Tanit River 12-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

  6. COLINS BETS
    Chelmsford
    2.00 The Lords Walk BOG 10/1
    2.00 Carvelas BOG 14/1
    5.50 Clement BOG 3/1
    ELITE BETS
    5.15 Chelmsford Admiral Rooke BOG 3/1
    Newcastle
    5.30 Canford Thompson BOG 14/1
    6.30 Distant Mirage BOG 11/2
    6.30 Kodi Dream BOG 16/1
    NEW METHOD
    Chelmsford
    4.10 Unforgiving Minute BOG 4/1
    4.40 Viola Park BOG 10/3
    5.15 Admiral Rooke BOG 3/1
    Wetherby
    5.05 Newtown Lad BOG 8/1
    Newcastle
    6.00 Employer BOG 5/1
    Colin

  7. Nothing in the first half of the day but do have a couple for the update which I’ll post here at 4.30.

  8. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    H 1.40 – See The Sea on 1st run @ 9
    H 2.10 – Bossingey Bay on 3rd run @ 6
    W 4.00 – Jack Lamb on 1st run @ 15/2
    GL

  9. Thoughts on the 15.15 Newbury Spring Mile Saturday based on Josh’s stats and average speed times over distance. The fav Ripp Orf on time of 11.98spf is fractionally better than everything else and at current price of 13/2 is good e/w value. An outsider to consider is South Seas running 12.00 spf. @ 33/1 is for me, a good e/w bet….closely matched with Chief of Chiefs, Masham Star…..South Seas ran a good race behind Masham Star in the Coral Challenge Hdcp run at Sandown in July 2017 off 9st 10lbs. running in a time of 11.91 spf in a fast run race just faster than the course standard time when going allowance was factored in. As the horse met a good few criteria on Josh’s stats for the race thought it was worth bet at 33/1 ew at industry prices. Gd lck with whatever you decide on backing .

    1. All makes sense and I have had a go at 33/1 each way. If it wins I owe you a pint or a Mr Whippy 99, your choice?
      My algorithm project is under way. It is expected to go live end May.

      1. Hope the bet comes in…I have backed both so a return would be good and if faith in the analysis is justified no need to buy a pint or Mr Whippy 99!!…just enjoy the challenge of trying to decipher the variables in picking a winner, sad anorak that I am!! ….very much looking forward to the outcome of your algorithm and hope this proves a success.

        1. South Seas needs give and the drying ground at Donny scuppered any chance. Dropped 2 lb for that it appears the ground is again going against him and likely good come Saturday.

      2. I tipped him LTO, in the ‘test’ – I mean he was woeful, it wasn’t a run of any promise as yet! He probably needed it, maybe, but I do wonder if he wants softer ground, and/or now needs 10f+ . Albeit that was a crawl LTO with the make all Appleby winner- well I assume it wasn’t frantic anyway. He does need a very strong pace to aim at, so we shall see. I do think he’s got one of these races in him this season but that’s based on the idea that at some point he will rediscover some of his past form, as he’s thrown in if he does- but he could have just regressed. Time will tell.

        1. Hi Josh…true he was woeful and looking at his best runs South Seas best form is on ground with a bit of cut on good to soft and soft and Ripp Orf was fifth in the same race….South Seas may well have regressed but at 33/1 think the price is too big to ignore….just hope that this is not a case of wishful thinking and I get some kind of good run this time around with the bonus being the horse wins!!

        2. just checked the time of the Auxerre race times…run 96.20 (.82 slow) going allowance -1.6 = 95.22. Standard time for race is 96 spf so the actual race was run faster than the standard time so not sure about that race being run at a crawl @11.90 spf for the winner Auxerre…South Seas was .44 spf slower than the winner and has 2.88 seconds (over 8 furlongs) to make up with Ripp Orf overall so not a forlorn hope given the horse dwelt and Jamie Spencer was on board who likes to come from the back with a flourish to win…Spencer was also on George of Hearts when running in the Ascot Brittanic Stakes in June 2018…that was also a race run in a good time 97.49 secs which was 1.11 sec below standard time when the going allowance was factored in…when making a course adjustment (Newmkt runs 2.6 secs slower than Ascot over the same distance) you get a time of 11.95 spf and 12.17 spf on another occasion so is not without a shout given that the winner Ostillo went on to win a Group 2 in Longchamp….tied in with that winner is Firebrigade running 12.07 spf…. South Seas selection was based on price and Josh stats regarding winners being 1lb lower/2lb higher last time out…both Ripp Orf and South Seas fitted that criteria hence the choices. Hope this clarifies things but at the end of the day it is down to opinions and subjective choices. All the best to whatever you decide to back.

  10. ….ouch hammered a bit to much into the celtic machine e/w last night ..lol .. a couple of winners and a whole hat full of places yesterday and i thought i was barney curley last night …it’s good to be brought down to earth .. but still a profit after the free love we were spreading yesterday ! so here we go again ……
    S.B.C. ROPEY RUNNERS TODAY :
    2.00 Chelmsford City 8 Dont Do It (IRE)
    3.35 Chelmsford City 4 Bye Bye Hong Kong (USA)
    3.35 Chelmsford City 5 Certain Lad
    3.35 Chelmsford City 6 Dark Vision (IRE)
    3.35 Chelmsford City 7 Fanaar (IRE)
    3.35 Chelmsford City 9 U S S Michigan (USA)
    4.10 Chelmsford City 8 Waqaas
    4.40 Chelmsford City 2 Viola Park
    5.15 Chelmsford City 8 Admiral Rooke (IRE)
    5.15 Chelmsford City 7 Hurricane Alert
    5.15 Chelmsford City 5 Shackled N Drawn (USA)
    5.30 Newcastle 5 Embers Glow
    5.50 Chelmsford City 3 Cash N Carrie (IRE)
    5.50 Chelmsford City 5 Clement (IRE)
    6.00 Newcastle 6 Employer (IRE)
    6.00 Newcastle 5 Grandee (IRE)
    6.30 Newcastle 1 Distant Mirage
    7.00 Newcastle 2 What Will Be (IRE)
    7.00 Newcastle 6 Zoom Out
    7.30 Newcastle 2 Classy Cailin (IRE)
    7.30 Newcastle 13 Sylviacliffs (FR)
    8.00 Newcastle 6 Alnasherat
    8.00 Newcastle 7 Bataar (IRE)
    8.00 Newcastle 8 Conaglen
    8.00 Newcastle 11 Lewis Slack
    8.00 Newcastle 12 Siglo Six
    All untrimmed just initial spurt out from the sooper commputer
    that’s all team sbc ! 😉
    You know the drill !!
    gl/gb
    v.p. gb 😉

    1. Thanks G, very frustrating last night, Foxrush running very well a few necks away from winning. At least May Sonic and Zorros did well.

      Doing Chelmsford this morning, will post back here later. I’m already liking the look of your computer reflux burping 🙂

      1. SBC Chelmsford Update

        Well VP G, the 3.35 looks a hot race for Chelmers. I think your compooter has definitely picked the winner the only question being which damn one? Obvs Aidan hasn’t come over just to look around the town and have a coffee so you have to fear his runner but my beloved T/J stats go for Bye Bye Hong Kong 50% win/62% place over last year.

        2.00 – I like Don’t Do It but he has not been at his best lately. He could well pop up but does Compass Point appeal? Is it a Brisland one runner special? (must admit haven’t counted lol). Also I see our old friend Carvelas is running and the Hipster has selected him. Probert not on, but this monkey will come in again at some point. Usher is quite keen on Chantresse, could run into a place. Tricky, not one to go mad on.

        4.10 – yours looks interesting EW at a price, also like Quick Breath (trainer keen on the Lambourn website) and Unforgiving Minute (Hipster again!) for the win.

        4.40- really like Viola Park in this (Colin has also tipped, he’s inside my head today lol). Usher thinks Mezmaar could outrun his odds so will save on that one.

        5.15 – don’t like Shackled but Admiral Rooke and Hurricane Alert look appealing. The Admiral looks well drawn to burn them off dropping down to 5f.

        5.50 – your magic machine hasn’t burped any out for this one but I like Tha’ir very speculatively EW. Our winner Clement runs again so is a live danger if yesterday didn’t take too much out of him.

        Quite a few T/J selections of interest at Newcastle tonite so will have a closer look during the afternoon.

        Adios for now 🙂

        1. cheers will be a great help for this arvers 🙂 report back later .
          Yes colin’s ( the god father in my eyes and must be obeyed or at least respected 🙂 ) duplicates are very very interesting to me 😉

          gl/gb

        2. Hi Mark
          Looked at Admiral Rooke for Colins bets but its record over 5 furlongs, ran only 3 times
          4th from 8 runners
          7 from 10
          6 from 11
          Ran a total of 26 races and never won, wished never looked at the race again for would not have put it up on the other 2 lines.

          Nothing for me to risk my money even at 3/1, before everyone shouts because have put it up on the other 2 lines, i have backed him on both for my stakes are smaller than my Colin bet stakes and the other 2
          methods are system based and i do get it wrong, and Appleby is a very clever trainer.
          Colin.

          1. Hi Colin

            I take your point in AR ‘s 5f form but with that draw and the excellent jock he could blast off and not be caught – I wish 🙂 🙂

      2. mc all weather magician …………
        Up against it today old bean … work mainly .. 🙁 .. and i am taxi for the mrs who needs to go to the vet …………………………………… well for our dog obviously 🙂 ( merlin has lumps and bumps everywhere and now has a swollen jaw bone 🙁 ) … not sure how much refining i can do before chelms starts .. but as you know i work like well oiled machine so lets see if time is kind to me 🙂

        gl/gb

  11. COLINS BETS
    Chelmsford
    2.00 The Lords Walk BOG 10/1
    2.00 Carvelas BOG 14/1
    5.50 Clement BOG 3/1
    ELITE BETS
    5.15 Chelmsford Admiral Rooke BOG 3/1
    Newcastle
    5.30 Canford Thompson BOG 14/1
    6.30 Distant Mirage BOG 11/2
    6.30 Kodi Dream BOG 16/1
    NEW METHOD
    Chelmsford
    4.10 Unforgiving Minute BOG 4/1
    4.40 Viola Park BOG 10/3
    5.15 Admiral Rooke BOG 3/1
    Wetherby
    5.05 Newtown Lad BOG 8/1
    Newcastle
    6.00 Employer BOG 5/1
    Colin

  12. SBC Newcastle Update

    Afternoon G and whoever’s listening 🙂

    5.30 – totally with you on Embers Glow, EW on Dizoard.

    6.00 – Prefer Employer, saving on Illustrisimo

    6.30 – agree Distant Mirage

    7.00 – trickiest heat of the night IMO. The favourite looks strong but a bit short for betting purposes. Zoom Out has the whiff of a Nigel Tinkler plot. Blazing Dreams trainer and jock are good round here (34% win/57% place over 5 years) but is the hoss good enough? And to cap it all I like the look of Mac’s Blessing! I’m gonna do MB and Zoom Out, I think.

    7.30 – I respect Sylviacliffs (T/J are 26/36 over 5 years) but it is its first go on this surface. I do like the look of Classy Cailin but Blazing Dreams trainer likes a winner here and if that one doesn’t oblige I think Midnight Vixen may go in.

    8.00 – I am so swerving this one!

    Good Luck if you play tonight (G who I am I kidding I know you will! 🙂 🙂

    1. Afternoon G and whoever’s listening

      5.30 – totally with you on Embers Glow, EW on Dizoard.
      NO GOOD 🙁

      6.00 – Prefer Employer, saving on Illustrisimo
      EMPLOYER GRANDEE F/C FOR ME .. AND YOUR SAVER 😉

      6.30 – agree Distant Mirage
      YEP CAN’T GET AWAY FROM IT REALLY

      7.00 – trickiest heat of the night IMO. The favourite looks strong but a bit short for betting purposes. Zoom Out has the whiff of a Nigel Tinkler plot. Blazing Dreams trainer and jock are good round here (34% win/57% place over 5 years) but is the hoss good enough? And to cap it all I like the look of Mac’s Blessing! I’m gonna do MB and Zoom Out, I think.
      ZOOM OUT IS INDEED A TYPICAL M.O. N. TINKLER PLOT … RIGHT AGE & HE IS 2/8 I THINK FOR THIS TYPE OF AGE / CLASS PLOT AT NEWCASTLE ??

      7.30 – I respect Sylviacliffs (T/J are 26/36 over 5 years) but it is its first go on this surface. I do like the look of Classy Cailin but Blazing Dreams trainer likes a winner here and if that one doesn’t oblige I think Midnight Vixen may go in.
      YEP I WILL LEAVE THIS ONE WELL ALONE !¬

      8.00 – I am so swerving this one!
      YOU KNOW ME SO WELL 🙂
      LEWIS SLACK E/W DUTCHED WITH CONAGLEN / SIGLO SIX

      Good Luck if you play tonight (G who I am I kidding I know you will!
      AND YOU BRAVE LITTLE THING YOU ! 🙂

      THANK GOODNESS FOR HURRICANE ALERT WHILE I WAS AT VETS !! ..HURRAH !!! .. MIND YOU LOADS OF ANTI-BIOTICSA LATER FOR HIS TEETH .. BET JUST ABOUT PAID FOR IT ALL 😉

      LATERZ 🙂

      1. OINK .. Mc ….. Just seen betfair taken my money back out cos Hurricane Alert got demoted !! .. boo !!!! very expensive vets bill now “”
        laterz 😉

      2. Glad he’s ok hope Bye Bye Hong Kong contributed too as your system shortlisted it! BTW did you fall asleep on your caps lock? 🙂

  13. Nothing in the first half of the day but do have a couple for the update which I’ll post here at 4.30.

  14. Thoughts on the 15.15 Newbury Spring Mile Saturday based on Josh’s stats and average speed times over distance. The fav Ripp Orf on time of 11.98spf is fractionally better than everything else and at current price of 13/2 is good e/w value. An outsider to consider is South Seas running 12.00 spf. @ 33/1 is for me, a good e/w bet….closely matched with Chief of Chiefs, Masham Star…..South Seas ran a good race behind Masham Star in the Coral Challenge Hdcp run at Sandown in July 2017 off 9st 10lbs. running in a time of 11.91 spf in a fast run race just faster than the course standard time when going allowance was factored in. As the horse met a good few criteria on Josh’s stats for the race thought it was worth bet at 33/1 ew at industry prices. Gd lck with whatever you decide on backing .

    1. All makes sense and I have had a go at 33/1 each way. If it wins I owe you a pint or a Mr Whippy 99, your choice?
      My algorithm project is under way. It is expected to go live end May.

      1. I tipped him LTO, in the ‘test’ – I mean he was woeful, it wasn’t a run of any promise as yet! He probably needed it, maybe, but I do wonder if he wants softer ground, and/or now needs 10f+ . Albeit that was a crawl LTO with the make all Appleby winner- well I assume it wasn’t frantic anyway. He does need a very strong pace to aim at, so we shall see. I do think he’s got one of these races in him this season but that’s based on the idea that at some point he will rediscover some of his past form, as he’s thrown in if he does- but he could have just regressed. Time will tell.

        1. Hi Josh…true he was woeful and looking at his best runs South Seas best form is on ground with a bit of cut on good to soft and soft and Ripp Orf was fifth in the same race….South Seas may well have regressed but at 33/1 think the price is too big to ignore….just hope that this is not a case of wishful thinking and I get some kind of good run this time around with the bonus being the horse wins!!

          1. haha well I wrote that looking at the sunshine out of my window assuming it would be on the quick side! But does appear plenty of cut at moment albeit will dry out. I’ll take a look at the pace maps etc but the harder they go the better for them and i suspect he did need it LTO as was weak enough. best of luck.

        2. just checked the time of the Auxerre race times…run 96.20 (.82 slow) going allowance -1.6 = 95.22. Standard time for race is 96 spf so the actual race was run faster than the standard time so not sure about that race being run at a crawl @11.90 spf for the winner Auxerre…South Seas was .44 spf slower than the winner and has 2.88 seconds (over 8 furlongs) to make up with Ripp Orf overall so not a forlorn hope given the horse dwelt and Jamie Spencer was on board who likes to come from the back with a flourish to win…Spencer was also on George of Hearts when running in the Ascot Brittanic Stakes in June 2018…that was also a race run in a good time 97.49 secs which was 1.11 sec below standard time when the going allowance was factored in…when making a course adjustment (Newmkt runs 2.6 secs slower than Ascot over the same distance) you get a time of 11.95 spf and 12.17 spf on another occasion so is not without a shout given that the winner Ostillo went on to win a Group 2 in Longchamp….tied in with that winner is Firebrigade running 12.07 spf…. South Seas selection was based on price and Josh stats regarding winners being 1lb lower/2lb higher last time out…both Ripp Orf and South Seas fitted that criteria hence the choices. Hope this clarifies things but at the end of the day it is down to opinions and subjective choices. All the best to whatever you decide to back.

      2. Hope the bet comes in…I have backed both so a return would be good and if faith in the analysis is justified no need to buy a pint or Mr Whippy 99!!…just enjoy the challenge of trying to decipher the variables in picking a winner, sad anorak that I am!! ….very much looking forward to the outcome of your algorithm and hope this proves a success.

        1. South Seas needs give and the drying ground at Donny scuppered any chance. Dropped 2 lb for that it appears the ground is again going against him and likely good come Saturday.

  15. SBC Newcastle Update

    Afternoon G and whoever’s listening 🙂

    5.30 – totally with you on Embers Glow, EW on Dizoard.

    6.00 – Prefer Employer, saving on Illustrisimo

    6.30 – agree Distant Mirage

    7.00 – trickiest heat of the night IMO. The favourite looks strong but a bit short for betting purposes. Zoom Out has the whiff of a Nigel Tinkler plot. Blazing Dreams trainer and jock are good round here (34% win/57% place over 5 years) but is the hoss good enough? And to cap it all I like the look of Mac’s Blessing! I’m gonna do MB and Zoom Out, I think.

    7.30 – I respect Sylviacliffs (T/J are 26/36 over 5 years) but it is its first go on this surface. I do like the look of Classy Cailin but Blazing Dreams trainer likes a winner here and if that one doesn’t oblige I think Midnight Vixen may go in.

    8.00 – I am so swerving this one!

    Good Luck if you play tonight (G who I am I kidding I know you will! 🙂 🙂

    1. Afternoon G and whoever’s listening

      5.30 – totally with you on Embers Glow, EW on Dizoard.
      NO GOOD 🙁

      6.00 – Prefer Employer, saving on Illustrisimo
      EMPLOYER GRANDEE F/C FOR ME .. AND YOUR SAVER 😉

      6.30 – agree Distant Mirage
      YEP CAN’T GET AWAY FROM IT REALLY

      7.00 – trickiest heat of the night IMO. The favourite looks strong but a bit short for betting purposes. Zoom Out has the whiff of a Nigel Tinkler plot. Blazing Dreams trainer and jock are good round here (34% win/57% place over 5 years) but is the hoss good enough? And to cap it all I like the look of Mac’s Blessing! I’m gonna do MB and Zoom Out, I think.
      ZOOM OUT IS INDEED A TYPICAL M.O. N. TINKLER PLOT … RIGHT AGE & HE IS 2/8 I THINK FOR THIS TYPE OF AGE / CLASS PLOT AT NEWCASTLE ??

      7.30 – I respect Sylviacliffs (T/J are 26/36 over 5 years) but it is its first go on this surface. I do like the look of Classy Cailin but Blazing Dreams trainer likes a winner here and if that one doesn’t oblige I think Midnight Vixen may go in.
      YEP I WILL LEAVE THIS ONE WELL ALONE !¬

      8.00 – I am so swerving this one!
      YOU KNOW ME SO WELL 🙂
      LEWIS SLACK E/W DUTCHED WITH CONAGLEN / SIGLO SIX

      Good Luck if you play tonight (G who I am I kidding I know you will!
      AND YOU BRAVE LITTLE THING YOU ! 🙂

      THANK GOODNESS FOR HURRICANE ALERT WHILE I WAS AT VETS !! ..HURRAH !!! .. MIND YOU LOADS OF ANTI-BIOTICSA LATER FOR HIS TEETH .. BET JUST ABOUT PAID FOR IT ALL 😉

      LATERZ 🙂

      1. Glad he’s ok hope Bye Bye Hong Kong contributed too as your system shortlisted it! BTW did you fall asleep on your caps lock? 🙂

      2. OINK .. Mc ….. Just seen betfair taken my money back out cos Hurricane Alert got demoted !! .. boo !!!! very expensive vets bill now “”
        laterz 😉

  16. Well fortunately I was right about Blazing Dream’s trainer but only backed the Vixen Gonna follow you in on the lucky last 🙂 .

  17. Nice one G, did your Conaglen in a single with Siglo so I’m a happy bunny, thanks!

    Have a good evening, catch you tomorrow.

    Yes, I’m the Rebel MC
    Float like a ninja
    Sting like a bee
    Etc etc:-)

    1. ouch ouch and more ouches ……… i think you came out of the evening a little less scaved than me . Just not my day from dickie falling off in the first race for me and hurricane getting disqualified and demoted 2nd and horrific vet bills 🙁 ……… you know when it’s not gonna be your day ! ( again conaglen saved most of my betting bank losses.. so phewwww )

      but guess what ………… today/tomorrow is another day !!

      we fight on brudder !!!
      gl gb 🙂

  18. Well fortunately I was right about Blazing Dream’s trainer but only backed the Vixen Gonna follow you in on the lucky last 🙂 .

  19. Nice one G, did your Conaglen in a single with Siglo so I’m a happy bunny, thanks!

    Have a good evening, catch you tomorrow.

    Yes, I’m the Rebel MC
    Float like a ninja
    Sting like a bee
    Etc etc:-)

    1. ouch ouch and more ouches ……… i think you came out of the evening a little less scaved than me . Just not my day from dickie falling off in the first race for me and hurricane getting disqualified and demoted 2nd and horrific vet bills 🙁 ……… you know when it’s not gonna be your day ! ( again conaglen saved most of my betting bank losses.. so phewwww )

      but guess what ………… today/tomorrow is another day !!

      we fight on brudder !!!
      gl gb 🙂

  20. Matt Fitzpatrick
    This year his new caddie is the experienced Billy Foster who for many years was Lee Westwoods caddie and had the bag twice when Westwood finished 2nd twice at Augusta, he also caddied for Ballesteros, Garcia, Bjorn, Darren Clarke and one week only Tiger Woods.
    Knew Matt won the US Amateur in 2013, did not realize that he was the first Englishman to win it in over 100 years.
    So with Billy alongside him with his wealth of Knowledge can young Matt go up another level by the end of the year ?
    Colin.

      1. Not thinking put it down to old age, had watched the local news and they did a good review of him, will you transfer it to Freepost when you put it up, for have put him up at 110/1 this week.
        No doubt someone will name a horse after him in the future.
        Colin.

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