Members Daily Post: 09/04/19 (tipsx2/complete)

Tips x2, Section 1 (complete), test zone, updates inc D Skelton research

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Exeter

2.40 –

First Figaro   (micro class) 20/1 S2A

Legal History   (m dist)  w1 H1 I1 G3 8/13 S4  WON Evens 

3.10 – Nesterenko   (nov HcCh) H3 I3 G3 7/2 S4 UP

3.40 – Lanford Lad   (m runs) 40/1 

4.10 –

Tanrudy   (HcH) 10/1 S2

Urtheonethatiwant   (m’s TJC and class)  w2 H1 I3 G1 5/2 S4 WON 5/2>6/5 

 

Southwell

3.20 – Global Dream   (m class) H1 G3 10/3 UP

4.50 –

Hattaab   (m runs) 18/1 S2A 2nd 

Cock A Doodledo   (m age)  ES+ 11/2 S3A UP

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FLAT

Pontefract

2.00 – Billy Roberts   (all Hc’s, m class) H3 I3 G3 11/4  UP

5.30 – Regal Mirage   (m -class)   w2 H3 I1 5/1 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 5/43, 11p -5.4)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 3/65,17p, -36, 2019 Flat TEST 0/1,0p, -2)

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Daily Tips

5.15 Exeter 

Heluvagood – 1 point win – 13/2 (gen) PU, couple of bad blunders game over

Midnight Magic – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP…ah, so frustrating but there we go. Never knowing. Travelling well in 3rd having settled, gap to the rest, and then a race ending blunder before they headed for home, slithered on landing, game over. Too far out to know what he’d have done, but you have to jump. He’d have stayed, albeit may have over-raced in first 1/2 mile. The winner keeps getting away with errors, but it was a poor race. Scu needs to get on this one.

 

that’s all for today, 08.55, write ups…

This ground should be riding decent enough come 3pm, I doubt there will be much good to soft in it… but then my chance may rest on the weather as they are forecast some showers – it’s one of those, the clever thing to do is probably to sit it out, but if its good to soft at worst come this race, i’ll regret not having these two onside at the prices.

Heluvagood… if it is GS at worst, or if the showers miss them altogether, this one should be a bit shorter than 13/2 I think, i’d have him at 4s or so in this line up. This is the 7th chase of his life, and he has some of the best form in this lineup. On only his second chase start he won over CD in November on decent ground, idling a bit in the closing stages and value for more. That was only off 1lb lower but in a better race than this. He then ran a decent 3rd at Taunton, possibly on a track tight enough for him, beaten 15 1/2 lengths. But, the horses in front of him were rated 118 and 115, the winner was Walt, who two starts later would win that decent handicap at Kempton. He then ran a fine race at Chepstow in 5th, on ground on the easy side, and again that was a much better race than this. The 3rd and 4th would win on their next starts. I think a repeat of either of those two runs would be good enough to take this and on Racing Post Ratings, his recent figures are superior to anything in here, inc the fav, and indicate he’s still well handicapped – as does the level of his form. The ground went against him LTO, and if the rain is heavy and this somehow turns to soft, then he will be done for. He was still bang there turning for home though, suggesting he’s holding his form. I can’t really work out the jockey booking given James Best has ridden him plenty and is on Cap Horner in this, who definitely needs the rain and even if he gets it needs to step up, but he’s a LTO winner. Tom O’Brien is a very good jockey, no excuses on that front. When this horse won here he was ridden just behind the leading bunch, and I hope they do so again. He’s a sound jumper and on form is the one the fav should have to worry about most.

Midnight Magic… more of a poke here and he really won’t want rain but at 16s I thought i’d chance it. He hits the Pipe PU LTO angle below and since the start of 2014, his chasers PU LTO sent off 14/1< are 16/59, 22p, +81 BFSP. He’s 5/16,8p with 7 year olds, and in handicap chases / 0-3 runs in handicap chases he’s 7/19, 11p, +57. So, something to work with there. This one has a valid excuse for his PU LTO in that it was proper testing at Chepstow and he was never put into the race. He jumped fine though. His chance rests on building on his chase debut two starts ago, which was decent. He was held up there, given a gentle introduction, but crept into it and stayed on well. He wasn’t beaten far and the top 2 were unexposed there, the 2nd winning on her next start. The front 4 were miles clear. He has the odd decent hurdle run over 3m on decent ground also and as I write, these look to be his conditions. He’s unexposed and there should be more to come at some point. Again his two best runs on RPR, inc that run two starts ago, are as good if not better that what most in here have achieved. I thought he was an interesting outsider although I would like to see him nibbled into 12s/10s, to boost confidence.

Of the rest…well Coopers Square is the right fav but I don’t want to be diving in at 3s – the handicapper will get him eventually and he’s up another 8lb from his last win. He won’t want rain either and he can hit a fence. He will try and make all I suspect, but i’ll hope his winning spree is done with. He should be bang there but something could have more in hand, hopefully one of the two selections. We shall see if taking him on proves wise or foolish.

Of the rest… well it is a poor bunch…Kiwi Myth is a LTO winner who’s unexposed, but he also wants plenty of rain and this to turn soft. If it does his chance is improved but I preferred the Dartnall horse at similar prices given his level of form. He only won LTO because Big Time Frank doesn’t respond to pressure and pulls himself up in front. He runs in here also and will run his race, but isn’t to be trusted.

I did stare at Don’t Be Robin for a time but decided he really does need to show more. The blinkers appear to have helped and the UR LTO wasn’t his fault. The run before that was his best to date, staying on over 17f – I decided I wanted to see more over 2m4f first, despite his breeding suggesting 3m is his trip. He would be an irritating winner but too much guesswork for a yard that is 1/51 in the last year-  however I did note that winner was here. A decent run wouldn’t surprise me but he does need to improve plenty, and rely on a few mentioned not running their races.

So, fingers crossed there isn’t too much rain, if any.

Best of luck

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

5.15 E – Troika Steppes

D Pipe PU LTO (14/1< guide)

5.15 E – Midnight Magic

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow

3.40 E- Triopas

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My Festival Losing Tips

2.50 S – Style De Garde (x1)

7.10 G – Got Trumped (x1)

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book 

2.40 E – Megalodon (medium term,guide)

4.20 S- Just Call Me Al

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Welcome Info/Section 1 Strategies

Report 1 (previously shared) : Where to Begin? : READ HERE>>>

Report 2: Other ideas: READ HERE>>>

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Dan Skelton

Today I had a brief look at Dan Skelton after he had yet another handicap hurdle winner at a Festival, returning after a break. It’s clearly his MO for one who he thinks is well handicapped and he freshens them up for a target. 

Angle 1

Dan Skelton / Handicaps/ Hurdles/ Class 1 or 2 / ran 61+ days ago / running at a ‘Festival’ (as defined in HRB)… since 2014>

29 bets / 7 wins / 12p / 24% sr / +64 SP / +107 BFSP / AE 2.81

  • those aged 5+ : 7/25, 11p, +68, +108

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Angle 2

Dan Skelton / Handicaps / Hurdles / C1 or 2 / Not Aged 4 / Did NOT run 11-60 days ago (has odd winner making quick return) / Tracks: Aintree – Ayr – Chelt – Haydock – Market R – Musselburgh – Newbury – Uttoxeter

50 bets / 15 wins / 26p / 30% sr / +97 SP / +152 BFSP

  • At ‘festivals’ as defined in HRB: 8/28, 13p, +69, +112

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

81 Responses

  1. Afternoon,

    Figures for March, which i know are late, apologies for that, as i said think John Unitt sent me his germs, as i was literally floored till Friday last week.
    This makes some interesting reading though.

    MARCH TOTALS

    95 selections in total (mainly due to Cheltenham, so, won`t apologise for that) 9 wins and 5 places produced
    EP / advertised prices slight loss of -3.25pts
    SP loss of – 17.5 pts

    suppose that was bound to happen and if you take out the fact i cannot pick flat winners for toffee (that was 9 selections), there was a slight gain on the EP loss to be turned into profit!
    (p.s. i also blame the curse of Josh, for highlighting how i was doing…only joking Obi Wan, your Padawan ain`t doing too bad)

    Totals going into April are

    241 selections 35 wins 7 places
    EP / advertised + profit / – loss + 98.25 pts
    SP + profit / – loss – 3.50 pts

    There you go, everything laid bare. Still a couple of weeks to go and I ain`t doing too bad in April, we shall see how i get on, but, thanks for all the support and help along the way and keep picking those winners!!

    1. Not a bad set of results at all. Time for a well earned rest.
      I wouldn’t worry to much about the flat there are plenty of peeps on here that have that covered And even the all weather with George and the SBC are not doing to badly. I think we are all gonna have a pretty good summer. 🙂

    2. I keep saying it on here, following people is a recipe for doing your bollocks. Something always happens, went to bed early not feeling well ( nick tipped up one at 16s last night, 7s in the morning) I don’t get BOG, the early price was gone with my books, I couldn’t get 5 places on that EW bet, the dog swallowed the car keys. Suddenly award winning fanfair blowing +38 pts profit is a head scratching -2 pts loss.

      Personally I dont care how anyone does in their tipping, I use this website to read opinions and your’s are very thorough in their posts ( many thanks) Putting opinions together gives one a good picture of a race and over time a new member can build on his own experiences where they will become in total control of their bets. So thanks again Stewart, win or lose I very much appreciate your write ups. Josh’s bad run means nothing to my betting but this website would be worthless without solid analysis, every tidbit can be added to the puzzle as nobody has the magic key.

      Hugh Taylor is a prime example, following him constantly is just pushing a pea around a plate at the prices, you might be lucky to hit him at certain times. But make no mistake, the man is a genius at tipping hosses so use his findings to reduce a field, maybe see a false favourite but above all learn from his analysis. ( rant over smiley)

  2. Windsor 2yo race comments and photos
    Result
    Here is the link to the photos.
    https://imgur.com/a/cvyUbE4
    The 2yo maiden at Windsor was a poor heat. I had decided not to oppose the favourite with Gin Gembre when I saw him. Just too small, he was ready though and stuck on well. Might win a weak Northern maiden. Dorchester Dom was relatively strongly made and his shortening in the market seemed justified. Unfortunately he refused to enter the stalls and was w/d.
    In the race itself Gin Gembre, Copacabana Beach and Chasanda all took each other on early and as the pace collapsed Champagne Supanova and Out Of Breath trundled on to get places late on.
    Lexington Quest for Hannon was horribly over backed as forecast, small ready type but here to run into fitness rather than compete.
    The winner Chasandra was a typical Evans electric mouse. Plain type, whizzed up and properly fit, ran her heart out doing well to stay on having contested early pace. Lightly made but with a bit of back end strength , linkage a bit suspect. 63
    The biggest was Jamie Osborne’s Out Of Breath who might go on from his second here. Out paced and green early.Also unusually forward for Mr O at this time of year. 64
    Champagne Supernova, compact early season type, very green early and ran on ok as the penny dropped. Shame he got as far as third as there will probably be no value nto. 64
    Gin Gembre – 60
    Copacabana Dancer – Chunkier model, not that fit and ran out of steam late on. 59
    Lexington Quest – smaller model, lightly made. Not that fit, no appeal on the day but the Hannons may find a race for him, probably a nursery unless he comes out quick in a really bad aw heat. 58
    Fact Or Fable – Plain, not fit. 57
    Good Times Too – Poor photo makes him look big, he wasn’t. 53
    Dover Light – Tragic, should never have been put in training. 40
    Dorchester Dom – withdrawn 64
    Hugh

    1. Thanks Hugh, and informative read as always. I do like flicking through the photos alongside your assessment. Poor Dover Light 🙁

  3. Tips – 3.30 Pon, Wild Edric, 1.5 points each way at 9/1 now. A front runner with winning form for an in form trainer and jockey partnership. Hopefully he gets a free go up front and he stays there.
    4.40 Exeter, Halloween Harry, 2 points win at 6/1 now. going OK last time out when unseating. Open to improvement against not the greatest bunch of horses ever assembled. Hobbs and Johnson team up and if the jockey stays on board he can go close.

    Good luck.

  4. System selections – Emma Lavelle handicappers 5/1+ – 4.20 Southwell, Fortia, 14/1 now; 5.15 Exeter, Water Wagtail, 12/1 now. So 1/2 point win both and 1/2 point each way double.

    Good luck.

  5. Frankuus Pontefract 16:30 1pt e/w 10/1
    Blackmill Exeter 15:40 1pt e/w 11/1
    Saturdaynightfever Exeter 16:40 1pt e/w 8/1
    Chapelli Pontefract 15:30 1pt e/w 7/1

    1. Great to see someone turning the tables and making the Bookmakers bleed slowly instead of the punters. ( admiration smiley)

      1. Don’t get too excited Nige, he’s only just getting rolling this year!! 🙂 Haha. He does know how to find them, whatever the code / trip it seems!

  6. Afternoon,

    Figures for March, which i know are late, apologies for that, as i said think John Unitt sent me his germs, as i was literally floored till Friday last week.
    This makes some interesting reading though.

    MARCH TOTALS

    95 selections in total (mainly due to Cheltenham, so, won`t apologise for that) 9 wins and 5 places produced
    EP / advertised prices slight loss of -3.25pts
    SP loss of – 17.5 pts

    suppose that was bound to happen and if you take out the fact i cannot pick flat winners for toffee (that was 9 selections), there was a slight gain on the EP loss to be turned into profit!
    (p.s. i also blame the curse of Josh, for highlighting how i was doing…only joking Obi Wan, your Padawan ain`t doing too bad)

    Totals going into April are

    241 selections 35 wins 7 places
    EP / advertised + profit / – loss + 98.25 pts
    SP + profit / – loss – 3.50 pts

    There you go, everything laid bare. Still a couple of weeks to go and I ain`t doing too bad in April, we shall see how i get on, but, thanks for all the support and help along the way and keep picking those winners!!

    1. Not a bad set of results at all. Time for a well earned rest.
      I wouldn’t worry to much about the flat there are plenty of peeps on here that have that covered And even the all weather with George and the SBC are not doing to badly. I think we are all gonna have a pretty good summer. 🙂

    2. I keep saying it on here, following people is a recipe for doing your bollocks. Something always happens, went to bed early not feeling well ( nick tipped up one at 16s last night, 7s in the morning) I don’t get BOG, the early price was gone with my books, I couldn’t get 5 places on that EW bet, the dog swallowed the car keys. Suddenly award winning fanfair blowing +38 pts profit is a head scratching -2 pts loss.

      Personally I dont care how anyone does in their tipping, I use this website to read opinions and your’s are very thorough in their posts ( many thanks) Putting opinions together gives one a good picture of a race and over time a new member can build on his own experiences where they will become in total control of their bets. So thanks again Stewart, win or lose I very much appreciate your write ups. Josh’s bad run means nothing to my betting but this website would be worthless without solid analysis, every tidbit can be added to the puzzle as nobody has the magic key.

      Hugh Taylor is a prime example, following him constantly is just pushing a pea around a plate at the prices, you might be lucky to hit him at certain times. But make no mistake, the man is a genius at tipping hosses so use his findings to reduce a field, maybe see a false favourite but above all learn from his analysis. ( rant over smiley)

      1. It is OK to follow others tips here if you wish but you should be looking for long term success from them. Too many jump in if someone has a few winners and then they tail off and it is a loser overall. Some of the newer guys on here seem confident that they are going to go OK. Hopefully they will. We shall see once they accrue a decent sample of tips.
        Hugh Taylor does have a following and does do a good write up. His tipping success goes in peaks and troughs and I would advise only following him if you have a good sized bank to play with.
        If you are betting on horses you need to look for an edge, be it course form, micro angles, front runners who are allowed to dictate etc etc. The study of form, especially with recency bias, is not the sole answer, as others would have sussed that long ago.

      2. Of course something can happen to prevent you getting the same odds as the tipster but if you keep your own records to compare against the tipster you can see how you fare against their advertised odds, then make an informed decision whether to follow them or not. Paper trading is always a good idea before you follow in. It has also been known some occasions to get better odds than the tipster, so it’s not always a one-way street where the odds go downwards.

        I don’t see anything wrong with following tipsters, if you have records to show that they can make you a profit over time. It has certainly worked out OK for me in the last year or so.

        1. Completely agree with both of you, all good common sense. Just always trying to temper the occasional post that indicates this game is easy. The Hipster is a great asset to this website but I’m glad he dropped the Trainers chat crap, 98% of them haven’t a clue about gambling.

          1. Ah, but they do have a clue as to the wellbeing and chance of their horses. I have had a good few winners from reading between the lines on that Lambourn website.

            It’s definitely worth taking a few minutes to read it each day as part of your selection process.

          2. Thanks for your kind words, however Jamie Osbourne is totally open will tell you will not risk my money or the other day the stable said of one near a certainty you can have and it won at 5/1, his video is always outstanding and for myself it is great to see the stables and the horses and his dry sense of humour is worth the time.
            Charles Hills appears to be totally open and along with Jamie Osbourne look forward to their info over this flat season and would imagine you will end up in profit, and Charles Hills father Barry was head lad for a trainer name escapes me and he won enough money gambling to start out training in his own right and he certainly wasn’t bad at it, so would imagine his sons were brought up on the art of gambling.
            Colin.

          3. Barry Hills was a pikey who would turn his mother over for a fiver adoesn’t fall far from the tree with the rest of them.

          4. well another enjoyable topic to read through. The final comment made me laugh out loud 🙂

  7. Windsor 2yo race comments and photos
    Result
    Here is the link to the photos.
    https://imgur.com/a/cvyUbE4
    The 2yo maiden at Windsor was a poor heat. I had decided not to oppose the favourite with Gin Gembre when I saw him. Just too small, he was ready though and stuck on well. Might win a weak Northern maiden. Dorchester Dom was relatively strongly made and his shortening in the market seemed justified. Unfortunately he refused to enter the stalls and was w/d.
    In the race itself Gin Gembre, Copacabana Beach and Chasanda all took each other on early and as the pace collapsed Champagne Supanova and Out Of Breath trundled on to get places late on.
    Lexington Quest for Hannon was horribly over backed as forecast, small ready type but here to run into fitness rather than compete.
    The winner Chasandra was a typical Evans electric mouse. Plain type, whizzed up and properly fit, ran her heart out doing well to stay on having contested early pace. Lightly made but with a bit of back end strength , linkage a bit suspect. 63
    The biggest was Jamie Osborne’s Out Of Breath who might go on from his second here. Out paced and green early.Also unusually forward for Mr O at this time of year. 64
    Champagne Supernova, compact early season type, very green early and ran on ok as the penny dropped. Shame he got as far as third as there will probably be no value nto. 64
    Gin Gembre – 60
    Copacabana Dancer – Chunkier model, not that fit and ran out of steam late on. 59
    Lexington Quest – smaller model, lightly made. Not that fit, no appeal on the day but the Hannons may find a race for him, probably a nursery unless he comes out quick in a really bad aw heat. 58
    Fact Or Fable – Plain, not fit. 57
    Good Times Too – Poor photo makes him look big, he wasn’t. 53
    Dover Light – Tragic, should never have been put in training. 40
    Dorchester Dom – withdrawn 64
    Hugh

    1. Thanks Hugh, and informative read as always. I do like flicking through the photos alongside your assessment. Poor Dover Light 🙁

  8. Tips – 3.30 Pon, Wild Edric, 1.5 points each way at 9/1 now. A front runner with winning form for an in form trainer and jockey partnership. Hopefully he gets a free go up front and he stays there.
    4.40 Exeter, Halloween Harry, 2 points win at 6/1 now. going OK last time out when unseating. Open to improvement against not the greatest bunch of horses ever assembled. Hobbs and Johnson team up and if the jockey stays on board he can go close.

    Good luck.

  9. System selections – Emma Lavelle handicappers 5/1+ – 4.20 Southwell, Fortia, 14/1 now; 5.15 Exeter, Water Wagtail, 12/1 now. So 1/2 point win both and 1/2 point each way double.

    Good luck.

  10. Frankuus Pontefract 16:30 1pt e/w 10/1
    Blackmill Exeter 15:40 1pt e/w 11/1
    Saturdaynightfever Exeter 16:40 1pt e/w 8/1
    Chapelli Pontefract 15:30 1pt e/w 7/1

      1. Don’t get too excited Nige, he’s only just getting rolling this year!! 🙂 Haha. He does know how to find them, whatever the code / trip it seems!

    1. Great to see someone turning the tables and making the Bookmakers bleed slowly instead of the punters. ( admiration smiley)

  11. 5:00 Ponty – Obee Jo 16/1
    This one has popped up in my tracker. Was due to debut at Leicester in June last year and was touted by today’s jockey as well regarded and fancied, but was withdrawn and not seen since. Makes belated debut today.

  12. today’s selections.
    Pontefract 3-30. Dahawi 10-1
    Exeter 5-15. Heluvagood 7-1
    Southwell 4-50. Spader 12-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

  13. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    E 2.40 – Megalodon on 2nd run @ 8
    Festial/BRT
    S 2.50 – Style de Garde on 1st run @ 6/4
    G 7.10 – Got Trumped on 1st run @ 14
    GL

  14. Hello Josh,
    A useful snippet re. Dan Skelton. Any mileage in looking at race prizemoney as a reference rather than just ‘Festivals’ – if so it might give us something to look for all year round rather than the occasional Festival?
    Many thanks,
    Steve

    1. Hi Steve, yep to some degree I suppose…

      that second angle sort of covers that – they both look at Class 1 and Class 2 which in effect covers the prize money bit – the idea was to look at those class 1 (Listed/Grade 3) and C2 handicaps – we are playing with small numbers/stats here and its only so useful digging and digging etc. It’s apparent that there are certain races / tracks he seems to target and angle 2 looks at tracks as opposed to ‘festivals’ – that bullet point was just to show ‘festivals’ within that.
      Market Rasen will be all year for example, and one/two of those winners will be that big summer handicap hurdle I assume.

      Prize money is always a tricky one, given it can change year on year/sponsorship etc etc, albeit with defined minimums I think = albeit not too sure how that works
      Anyway, within angle 2…
      -those races worth under 13k (still C2)… 4/8, 8p
      – those races 40k+ … 7/17, 7p +126 (Aintree/Ayr/Chelt/Haydock)

      If looking at ALL handicaps / hurdles / 61+ days off / 2014>> …
      In races worth 40k+ … 7/22, 9p, +121 BFSP (all 7 winners at those tracks as detailed above, but may well have the odd one elsewhere in months/years to come)

      The general point I think is that any of his in these ‘big’ races are worth inspection, and more so if they’ve had 60+ days off, and could be classed as ‘unexposed’ – looks like he’d prefer to protect their mark and get them fit at home etc and he’s clearly some target trainer in these handicap hurdles, I think this spring has confirmed that, if we didn’t know it already. Now just to back some of the buggers!! 🙂

      Josh

    2. I have had a quick look and cannot see anything. I had a look at the split between hurdles and chases. Apart from ‘festivals’ it would only relate to Saturday handicaps I would have thought. I guess he may lat one out for races such as the Imperial Cup etc?

      1. I missed out the 61 days + as that had already been covered here. The 61+ days seems to be the key factor here and so the horse must be laid out for the race unless injured. Apologies for stating the obvious.

  15. 5:00 Ponty – Obee Jo 16/1
    This one has popped up in my tracker. Was due to debut at Leicester in June last year and was touted by today’s jockey as well regarded and fancied, but was withdrawn and not seen since. Makes belated debut today.

  16. today’s selections.
    Pontefract 3-30. Dahawi 10-1
    Exeter 5-15. Heluvagood 7-1
    Southwell 4-50. Spader 12-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

  17. like most of you i have an inbox full of people claiming to be the worlds best tipster or that system that just cannot lose.
    most of the tipster ad’s are a similar format so following that here is my ad remember every word is true:
    Would you like to follow a tipster in red hot form? over the last 8 days i have made my followers £725 ( to level £25 stake ) at an roi of 100%, how many others could claim to double your money in just 8 days, for just £40 a month you can have my selections in your inbox every morning blah blah blah etc etc.
    what hasn’t been said is one winner was 28-1 and without that the selections just about break even.
    that’s why i love it here everything is transparent no bullshit, so keep up the good work lads and keep this the best racing forum on the net.

  18. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    E 2.40 – Megalodon on 2nd run @ 8
    Festial/BRT
    S 2.50 – Style de Garde on 1st run @ 6/4
    G 7.10 – Got Trumped on 1st run @ 14
    GL

  19. 17.30 Pont. Average times seconds per furlong over comparable distance, course, and going adjustments.
    Sempre Presto. 13.42.
    Royal Mirage. 12.91
    Kajaki. 13.34/13.28
    Gemini. 13.16
    Archive. 13.03
    Raashdy. 13.07
    Love U Whatever 13.28
    Low Profile 13.43
    Bit Of A Quirke 13.62.

    Conclusion: Royal Mirage. win only
    Archive/Raashdy close match and each way value.
    Gd luck if playing.

    1. GL Silver, i’d be on if he was an S6, but alas not 6s+ this morning. He has badly needed/come on plenty for his seasonal reappearances to date, so will be interesting if he’s tuned up for this, or whether it’s about his next couple of starts. Won on 2nd start last year, and 3rd the year before that. Also the jockeys first ride here. Anyway, best of luck, always a tricky time of year, as if one doesn’t have a winning record fresh, guessing plenty 🙂
      Josh

    2. Well, that was interesting with Archive winning. The prices for the winner were 14/1 earlier returning ISP 8/1 and 11.2 BFSP. Not sure what to make of the times as the race itself was run slowly, even allowing for the good to firm going description, though it had been watered. The time was 161.46 secs , 6.46 secs above the standard course time of 155 secs, so suggests the going was softer than advertised (no surprises there if watering had indeed affected the going and the clerk had not factored this in to the official going description still declaring the going being good to firm). This begs the question, when trying to assess previous races to get accurate comparisons, how often is the going descriptions accurate? Punters are totally dependent on accurate going descriptions which is the only explanation for this particular race running in the slow time of 13.28 seconds per furlong. Either that it was just a slowly run race or was not that good in terms of form. Consequently, analysis of previous times, when factoring in going allowances of previous races, needs a decree of scepticism when taking at face value the going descriptions of clerks of courses. Archive was identified as the second best in terms of time but Regal mirage was 12.5 lengths behind the winner and as Josh pointed out, does run better 2nd or third time round. Sempre Presto was only beaten by a nk. and beat Gemini, Kajaki, Raashdy, and Luv U Whatever who all had run in times better than that horse and Bit Of Quirke who had the worst time of them all came in third so bit of a question mark over why this should be. Archive had not won at the distance before but had won in this class and had dropped down 1 class from LTO, had a good speed figure and this was the second run after wind operation so could be a combination of factors that enabled the horse to win. The horse had also won on the going if we take at face value the description of gd to firm. Overall, therefore, not sure what to make of the result and method of assessment, but given the 2nd best speed figure and the price available was a good each wager, so a punt was vindicated.

  20. COLINS BETS
    No bet since restricting the bets to 3/1 approx been a quite spell, and thank you Ken Mckenzie for keeping my records and one is never to old to accept change or take advice.
    ELITE BETS
    2.20 Southwell Zolfo BOG 7/1
    3.40 Exeter Dollnamix BOG 11/2
    4.00 Pontefract So Near So Farhh BOG 7/2
    NEW METHOD
    2.00 Pontefract Billy Roberts BOG 7/2
    4.50 Southwell Nachi Falls BOG 2/1
    Colin

  21. Hi Josh
    Had notification that one of our syndicate horses Caroline Charm has been declared to run at Warwick tomorrow if you have chance can you do a quick through the card for us thx

    Regards

    Peter

    1. Hi Peter, i’ll see what I can do 🙂 As always will come after the main post, and there’s a 3m5f marathon there tomorrow i’ll glance at, but not the best quality. So yep, i’ll try and get some brief thoughts up after 10, before 11, in section 4 at the bottom,
      Josh

  22. Hello Josh,
    A useful snippet re. Dan Skelton. Any mileage in looking at race prizemoney as a reference rather than just ‘Festivals’ – if so it might give us something to look for all year round rather than the occasional Festival?
    Many thanks,
    Steve

    1. Hi Steve, yep to some degree I suppose…

      that second angle sort of covers that – they both look at Class 1 and Class 2 which in effect covers the prize money bit – the idea was to look at those class 1 (Listed/Grade 3) and C2 handicaps – we are playing with small numbers/stats here and its only so useful digging and digging etc. It’s apparent that there are certain races / tracks he seems to target and angle 2 looks at tracks as opposed to ‘festivals’ – that bullet point was just to show ‘festivals’ within that.
      Market Rasen will be all year for example, and one/two of those winners will be that big summer handicap hurdle I assume.

      Prize money is always a tricky one, given it can change year on year/sponsorship etc etc, albeit with defined minimums I think = albeit not too sure how that works
      Anyway, within angle 2…
      -those races worth under 13k (still C2)… 4/8, 8p
      – those races 40k+ … 7/17, 7p +126 (Aintree/Ayr/Chelt/Haydock)

      If looking at ALL handicaps / hurdles / 61+ days off / 2014>> …
      In races worth 40k+ … 7/22, 9p, +121 BFSP (all 7 winners at those tracks as detailed above, but may well have the odd one elsewhere in months/years to come)

      The general point I think is that any of his in these ‘big’ races are worth inspection, and more so if they’ve had 60+ days off, and could be classed as ‘unexposed’ – looks like he’d prefer to protect their mark and get them fit at home etc and he’s clearly some target trainer in these handicap hurdles, I think this spring has confirmed that, if we didn’t know it already. Now just to back some of the buggers!! 🙂

      Josh

    2. I have had a quick look and cannot see anything. I had a look at the split between hurdles and chases. Apart from ‘festivals’ it would only relate to Saturday handicaps I would have thought. I guess he may lat one out for races such as the Imperial Cup etc?

      1. I missed out the 61 days + as that had already been covered here. The 61+ days seems to be the key factor here and so the horse must be laid out for the race unless injured. Apologies for stating the obvious.

  23. like most of you i have an inbox full of people claiming to be the worlds best tipster or that system that just cannot lose.
    most of the tipster ad’s are a similar format so following that here is my ad remember every word is true:
    Would you like to follow a tipster in red hot form? over the last 8 days i have made my followers £725 ( to level £25 stake ) at an roi of 100%, how many others could claim to double your money in just 8 days, for just £40 a month you can have my selections in your inbox every morning blah blah blah etc etc.
    what hasn’t been said is one winner was 28-1 and without that the selections just about break even.
    that’s why i love it here everything is transparent no bullshit, so keep up the good work lads and keep this the best racing forum on the net.

  24. 17.30 Pont. Average times seconds per furlong over comparable distance, course, and going adjustments.
    Sempre Presto. 13.42.
    Royal Mirage. 12.91
    Kajaki. 13.34/13.28
    Gemini. 13.16
    Archive. 13.03
    Raashdy. 13.07
    Love U Whatever 13.28
    Low Profile 13.43
    Bit Of A Quirke 13.62.

    Conclusion: Royal Mirage. win only
    Archive/Raashdy close match and each way value.
    Gd luck if playing.

    1. GL Silver, i’d be on if he was an S6, but alas not 6s+ this morning. He has badly needed/come on plenty for his seasonal reappearances to date, so will be interesting if he’s tuned up for this, or whether it’s about his next couple of starts. Won on 2nd start last year, and 3rd the year before that. Also the jockeys first ride here. Anyway, best of luck, always a tricky time of year, as if one doesn’t have a winning record fresh, guessing plenty 🙂
      Josh

      1. Hi Josh…thanks for the comments…realise I got the name wrong…should be Regal Mirage….apologies for that (senior moment) and have not used any other criteria other than time per furlong as just wanted a pure speed assessment and deliberately did not take in other aspects of form analysis, trainer etc. etc. (tempting as it always is) just to see if the figures stand up on their own …..don’t advise any to follow them though I have my money down as you have to have the courage of your own convictions….will be interesting to see how the figures stack up. Cheers

    2. Well, that was interesting with Archive winning. The prices for the winner were 14/1 earlier returning ISP 8/1 and 11.2 BFSP. Not sure what to make of the times as the race itself was run slowly, even allowing for the good to firm going description, though it had been watered. The time was 161.46 secs , 6.46 secs above the standard course time of 155 secs, so suggests the going was softer than advertised (no surprises there if watering had indeed affected the going and the clerk had not factored this in to the official going description still declaring the going being good to firm). This begs the question, when trying to assess previous races to get accurate comparisons, how often is the going descriptions accurate? Punters are totally dependent on accurate going descriptions which is the only explanation for this particular race running in the slow time of 13.28 seconds per furlong. Either that it was just a slowly run race or was not that good in terms of form. Consequently, analysis of previous times, when factoring in going allowances of previous races, needs a decree of scepticism when taking at face value the going descriptions of clerks of courses. Archive was identified as the second best in terms of time but Regal mirage was 12.5 lengths behind the winner and as Josh pointed out, does run better 2nd or third time round. Sempre Presto was only beaten by a nk. and beat Gemini, Kajaki, Raashdy, and Luv U Whatever who all had run in times better than that horse and Bit Of Quirke who had the worst time of them all came in third so bit of a question mark over why this should be. Archive had not won at the distance before but had won in this class and had dropped down 1 class from LTO, had a good speed figure and this was the second run after wind operation so could be a combination of factors that enabled the horse to win. The horse had also won on the going if we take at face value the description of gd to firm. Overall, therefore, not sure what to make of the result and method of assessment, but given the 2nd best speed figure and the price available was a good each wager, so a punt was vindicated.

  25. Hi Josh
    Had notification that one of our syndicate horses Caroline Charm has been declared to run at Warwick tomorrow if you have chance can you do a quick through the card for us thx

    Regards

    Peter

    1. Hi Peter, i’ll see what I can do 🙂 As always will come after the main post, and there’s a 3m5f marathon there tomorrow i’ll glance at, but not the best quality. So yep, i’ll try and get some brief thoughts up after 10, before 11, in section 4 at the bottom,
      Josh

  26. COLINS BETS
    No bet since restricting the bets to 3/1 approx been a quite spell, and thank you Ken Mckenzie for keeping my records and one is never to old to accept change or take advice.
    ELITE BETS
    2.20 Southwell Zolfo BOG 7/1
    3.40 Exeter Dollnamix BOG 11/2
    4.00 Pontefract So Near So Farhh BOG 7/2
    NEW METHOD
    2.00 Pontefract Billy Roberts BOG 7/2
    4.50 Southwell Nachi Falls BOG 2/1
    Colin

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