Members Daily Post: 08/04/19 (complete)

Tipsx1, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Kelso

2.40 –

Rivabodiva   (micro -class) 9/1

Bennys Secret   (m +dist) H3 I3 G1 3/1 S4

3.10 – Left Back   (m dist) 8/1

5.10 – Royal Reserve   (m TJC) 14 H1 I1 G1 Evens

 

FLAT

Windsor

4.50 – Mr Mac   (all Hc’s)  10/1

 

Redcar

none.

 

*

THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

*

 

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 5/41, 11p -3.4)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 3/65,17p, -36, 2019 Flat TEST 0/1,0p, -2)

*

Daily Tips

3.40 Kelso – Valadom – 1 point win – 5/1 (gen) 2nd, i’m not sure how 🙁 . That nearly went to plan.  Maybe the jockey failed to get a breather in there, beaten by the 12YO Cultram Abbey who’d been pulled up the last twice, but bounced back to form here, staying on dourly. Valadom looked the winner for most of that but never mind. He jumped superbly and forced errors from everything else. Painful viewing after the last. A good ride on the winner, his first over fences, and it won’t be the last. Positives there, plenty of these 3m+ (non vets/C5! -5) chasers running well since re-focusing on 22nd Feb… 5/17,9p, +11. (2m7f+, C4+, non veteran’s chases). Something to build on. I’m only saying that to make myself feel better, can’t believe he’s go caught there. 

 

that’s all for today, 08.55, write up…

Famous last words but i thought this looked a 3 horse race if Another Venture, Midnight Shot and the selection run their races. 5s looks a couple of points to big to me and his consistency in recent starts could be rewarded today.

Yes I know he’s 10, but he had enough time off before this season and and there are no thoroughly unexposed hot-pots in this who look thrown in, given the race conditions. 3m and decent ground are his chase conditions, and he’s 2/6 in those and he’s now 11lb below his last winning mark. I think his last 3 chase runs are the best form on show in this. That Donny run was decent enough, beaten 5L, with three subsequent winners coming out of that. Classic Ben, who’d win a decent chase at Sandown, wasn’t too far ahead of him. On his next start at Fakenham, over a trip too short, he split a couple of subsequent winners. He beat Sideways back in third there, who ‘thumped’ Midnight Shot LTO. His run at Newbury was his first after a wind-op. I can’t think it was a major one given the 35 day break, but he must have had a few quiet days and it’s not impossible he tightens up from that, returning 17 days later here. That was a decent effort also, staying on at the end. The winner was progressive, the three in behind in a heap but he wasn’t stopping come the line. He travels on the pace, touch-wood is a superb jumper, will relish this drying ground (baking sun all day, I can’t think there will be much soft in this come 3.40) and he will appreciate this slight step up in trip, and the stiffer finish. I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t out-run these odds, and the yard are ticking along better than they were.

The dangers… well Another Venture is the right fav and I tipped him on here LTO, partly as I thought he’d make-all against horses with plenty of questions to answer. He won’t get such an easy lead here, he’s on a career high mark, he jumped out to his right at times there, and this may well be the quickest ground he’s run on over fences. There’s also a chance the visor doesn’t work again. Clearly I won’t be shocked if he wins this, but it is a deeper race to my eyes, and he does need to improve again. He is the one to beat but didn’t look over-priced to do so.

I could leave Midnight Shot at his price. Another that wouldn’t be a shock result, but the only time he’s seen out this trip fully was at Fakenham, and I do think there are stronger stayers in this. He may well come on for that last run. I did think Paul O’Brien may have had the choice between him and the selection, given he rode both LTO. I didn’t think he was as good as the selection, provided he runs up to the level of his recent runs, or maybe improves on them.

Of the rest…well Cultram Abbey is too exposed/old, even for me! As is Lowanbehold, rated 102- i’m not sure why he suddenly starts beating 120+ rated rivals. The same with King Golan, who’s rated 105. He is 8 and he’s in decent form – but there’s nothing to suggest he has the ability to beat the market leaders here. Of course all three may fail to run their race, and then it is much more open. But I struggled to see that. I didn’t think he was overpriced anyway at 11/2 or so, given he needs to step up.

That leaves Well Above Par – he’s unexposed and his yard are in form. He’s yet to race on anything better than soft which is his big question, as well as needing to prove he stays. The odd run doesn’t suggest he will see this trip out and he didn’t run that well LTO. The ground/trip however are more unknowns and maybe he’s just been getting away with softer ground and all he’s ever wanted is Good. If that’s the case, then I can see him going very very well, but on his form profile to date, in these conditions, I was happy to leave him.

So, an interesting little contest. On paper there’s a fair bit of pace on here but I suspect they’ll sort themselves out within a couple of furlongs. Valadom will be up there- tracking Another Venture I suspect, and in the right place to pounce. King Golan will be up there, just a case of whether his legs are quick enough to keep strides with the other two, without blowing a gasket. Midnight Shot should track, with the others following behind him I imagine.

There should be no excuse for mine. I don’t think he has to lead but I hope he takes it up as they turn for home, and out-stays them on this ground.

Best of luck.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)

3.10 K – Lovely Schtuff

Trainers to follow

4.10 K – Sporting Press

*

Handicap Chase System Starting Points

4.10 – Sporting Press

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

39 Responses

  1. 8th April
    Windsor 5f Novice
    As pointed out in the comments for The Brocklesby, David Evans runners from the first week of the season are worth following 2nd and 3to. In the subsequent week Zulu Zander won for him under Adam Kirby at Musselburgh having finished 3rd in The Brocklesby.
    Today the 4th from the same race, also trained by David Evans, Dorchester Dom runs against 9others all making their debut. His experience along with a good draw and Adam Kirby up should make him very hard to beat. He also looked a decent size.
    Who is most likely to give him something to think about? In order of preference they are
    Gin Gembre – Dandy Man colt for Karl Burke drawn even better in 3. Slight caveat is that Clifford Lee has only ever had one ride at Windsor, but as all he has to do is get Gin Gembre out well and hold his position to be competitive then this should not be much of a problem. It will be interesting to watch ‘take no prisoners Kirby’ try to gun Dorchester Dom to the front early and get over to the rail to cut off Gin G.
    If these two take each other on too much which I consider unlikely then who might benefit later on?
    Lexington Quest for Richard Hannon with Sean Levey up, drawn 6, probably will only be here to run his race unless he is a good one in which case he may be very short. If he isn’t a good one might pick up the pieces in the event of a mad duel between the first two mentioned.
    Champagne Supanova – Camacho colt from Richard Spencer, who has a decent fto win rate. His go to jock is Tom Queally who gets the ride here.
    Good Times Too – a Captain Gerrard colt for Mick Channon, drawn 11 with Charles Bishop up. CB has not got a great record here and that together with the draw is against this one.
    Chasanda – a second runner for David Evans with Tom Marquand up, both the fact that this one is fto and up against the stables favourite militate against this one. Drawn in the middle so if she does not get a good start might easily be squeezed back by those outside her coming across.
    Scores
    4.25 Gin Gembre
    3.75 Dorchester Dom, Lexington Quest
    The early market has Dorchester Dom at just above even money which in my mind is too short. Yes, a clear case can be made as he is the only one with any form but The Brocklesby is often shown to be a poor race and the form given undue weight long into the season when its use probably does not extend beyond early May. It is a heat for the very precocious and little ones that their trainers are trying to get out early as it is the only chance they may have to get a win or place before they are overtaken by bigger types.
    Lexington Quest is 2nd favourite at 4’s and will no doubt get lots of mentions along the lines of Hannon at Windsor must be backed and their fantastic record. This is usually over-weighted in the market.
    Gin Gembre is currently 4th fav at 7s and this early in the season Karl Burke is more likely to be chasing a fto winner.
    I am going so won’t have a bet until I’ve seen them, but the value looks to lie with Gin Gembre ew.
    I might save with a .5pt rev exacta on Gin Gembre and Dorchester Dom if Lexington Q only looks ordinary.
    Hugh

      1. Well done Nick – a free bet with 365 in the 3.30 at Ponty tomorrow I believe, for those of us still lucky enough to have an account with them.

  2. Tips – 5.20 Windsor, Barasti Dancer, 1 point each way at 20/1 available now. Karl Burke is in form and this one, although it has top weight to carry, at the price can go well. Four runs over a shorter trip and the step up to a mile may suit,

  3. 8th April
    Windsor 5f Novice
    As pointed out in the comments for The Brocklesby, David Evans runners from the first week of the season are worth following 2nd and 3to. In the subsequent week Zulu Zander won for him under Adam Kirby at Musselburgh having finished 3rd in The Brocklesby.
    Today the 4th from the same race, also trained by David Evans, Dorchester Dom runs against 9others all making their debut. His experience along with a good draw and Adam Kirby up should make him very hard to beat. He also looked a decent size.
    Who is most likely to give him something to think about? In order of preference they are
    Gin Gembre – Dandy Man colt for Karl Burke drawn even better in 3. Slight caveat is that Clifford Lee has only ever had one ride at Windsor, but as all he has to do is get Gin Gembre out well and hold his position to be competitive then this should not be much of a problem. It will be interesting to watch ‘take no prisoners Kirby’ try to gun Dorchester Dom to the front early and get over to the rail to cut off Gin G.
    If these two take each other on too much which I consider unlikely then who might benefit later on?
    Lexington Quest for Richard Hannon with Sean Levey up, drawn 6, probably will only be here to run his race unless he is a good one in which case he may be very short. If he isn’t a good one might pick up the pieces in the event of a mad duel between the first two mentioned.
    Champagne Supanova – Camacho colt from Richard Spencer, who has a decent fto win rate. His go to jock is Tom Queally who gets the ride here.
    Good Times Too – a Captain Gerrard colt for Mick Channon, drawn 11 with Charles Bishop up. CB has not got a great record here and that together with the draw is against this one.
    Chasanda – a second runner for David Evans with Tom Marquand up, both the fact that this one is fto and up against the stables favourite militate against this one. Drawn in the middle so if she does not get a good start might easily be squeezed back by those outside her coming across.
    Scores
    4.25 Gin Gembre
    3.75 Dorchester Dom, Lexington Quest
    The early market has Dorchester Dom at just above even money which in my mind is too short. Yes, a clear case can be made as he is the only one with any form but The Brocklesby is often shown to be a poor race and the form given undue weight long into the season when its use probably does not extend beyond early May. It is a heat for the very precocious and little ones that their trainers are trying to get out early as it is the only chance they may have to get a win or place before they are overtaken by bigger types.
    Lexington Quest is 2nd favourite at 4’s and will no doubt get lots of mentions along the lines of Hannon at Windsor must be backed and their fantastic record. This is usually over-weighted in the market.
    Gin Gembre is currently 4th fav at 7s and this early in the season Karl Burke is more likely to be chasing a fto winner.
    I am going so won’t have a bet until I’ve seen them, but the value looks to lie with Gin Gembre ew.
    I might save with a .5pt rev exacta on Gin Gembre and Dorchester Dom if Lexington Q only looks ordinary.
    Hugh

      1. Well done Nick – a free bet with 365 in the 3.30 at Ponty tomorrow I believe, for those of us still lucky enough to have an account with them.

  4. Tips – 5.20 Windsor, Barasti Dancer, 1 point each way at 20/1 available now. Karl Burke is in form and this one, although it has top weight to carry, at the price can go well. Four runs over a shorter trip and the step up to a mile may suit,

  5. today’s selections.
    Redcar
    4-30. Kilbaha Lady 13-2 4 places
    Windsor.
    4-20. Lightening Charlie 12-`1 4 places
    4-50. Hackbridge 8-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

  6. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    2.20 Windsor Cobweb Catcher BOG 5/1 was 10/1 at 7am today with most bookmakers
    NEW METHOD
    2.40 Kelso Uptown Harry BOG 7/2
    Colin

  7. AW and Turf warning.
    Quite day and having backed on the AW for years many including journalists and TV presenters run away with the idea that early in the season the AW form will translate to the turf and in some cases it will but only a small percentage.
    The turf ground for me to be GD/FIRM or FIRM or even HARD before will look at AW form on the turf.
    This is my experience over the years and hope it helps when you are looking for your bets.
    Colin.

  8. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    2.20 Windsor Cobweb Catcher BOG 5/1 was 10/1 at 7am today with most bookmakers
    NEW METHOD
    2.40 Kelso Uptown Harry BOG 7/2
    Colin

  9. AW and Turf warning.
    Quite day and having backed on the AW for years many including journalists and TV presenters run away with the idea that early in the season the AW form will translate to the turf and in some cases it will but only a small percentage.
    The turf ground for me to be GD/FIRM or FIRM or even HARD before will look at AW form on the turf.
    This is my experience over the years and hope it helps when you are looking for your bets.
    Colin.

  10. Lambourn Trainers
    Jamie Osbourn and Charles Hills not come up has i type at 12.35, this is the only pain with this site so i am going to pull the plug on this one and anyone interested look at the site yourself.
    Jamie Osbourne
    Charles Hills
    Oliver Sherwood
    Brendan Powell
    Mark Usher
    Nicky Henderson mainly grade 1 tracks,decent prices.
    Are some i trust with their assessments on site there are others and will make a list and put it up in a few days
    Colin.

  11. today’s selections.
    Redcar
    4-30. Kilbaha Lady 13-2 4 places
    Windsor.
    4-20. Lightening Charlie 12-`1 4 places
    4-50. Hackbridge 8-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

  12. Lambourn Trainers
    Jamie Osbourn and Charles Hills not come up has i type at 12.35, this is the only pain with this site so i am going to pull the plug on this one and anyone interested look at the site yourself.
    Jamie Osbourne
    Charles Hills
    Oliver Sherwood
    Brendan Powell
    Mark Usher
    Nicky Henderson mainly grade 1 tracks,decent prices.
    Are some i trust with their assessments on site there are others and will make a list and put it up in a few days
    Colin.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.