Members Daily Post: 07/04/19 (tipx2/complete)

Tips x2 + preview, Section 1 (complete) , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Ffos Las

2.00  –

General Allenby   (micro’s TJC and going)  ES+ H3 9/1 

Sign of War   (HcH, m’s dist and age)  ES+ 16/1  S2A S3A

3.05 –

Alf n Dor   (m’s TJC and going  w2  ES+ H3 11/2  S3A

Flight To Milan   (m’s dist and Hcdeb) G3 15/2  S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

3.40 –

Looks Like Power   (m dist) H3 I1 11/1 S2 S5

Lord Bryan   (m’s TJC and going)  ES+ I3 4/1 S3A

Holdbacktheriver   (m +class)  w2  ES+ H3 14/1 S2 S3A

4.10 –

Newtide   (m TJC) 14,30  ES+ 5/1 S3A

Trafalgar Rock   (m going) G1 16/1  S1 S2A

Radical Archie   (HcH)  w2 7/1

4.45 –

Point of Departure  (m’s going and Hcdeb) 9/1

Magical man   (m dist) 25/1 S2A

5.15 – Gilwen Grayson   (1st NHF) 20/1 S2A

 

Plumpton

2.15 –

Finnegans Garden   (all Hc’s)  w1 H1 I1 G3 3/1  S4

Hit The Highway   (m runs) I3 3/1

Mrs Burbridge   (HcCh, m dist) H3 I3 G1 9/2 S4

3.20 –

Mellow Ben   (HcH, m’s TJC and age)  ES+ H1 I1 G1 Evens S3A# S4

San Pedro De Senam   (HcH) H3 I3 13/2

Its Got Legs   (HcH) H3 I3 3/1

Harry Hazard   (all Hc’s) 22/1 S2A

3.55 – The Wicket Chicken   (HcCh, m class) H3 I3 5/1

4.25 –

Telegraph Place   (HcH, m’s TJC and age)  ES+ G3  10/1 S1 S3A

Age of Wisdom   (HcH) H3 9/2

Maisy Belle   (all Hc’s) 28/1

Marocchino   (HcH, m age) 20/1 S2A

5.00 –

Howlongisafoot   (m TJC)  ES+ I3 G3 13/2 S3A#  S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Brother Bennett   (all Hc’s) H3 I1 G1 6/1 S4 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 5/38, 9p -0.4)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 3/65,17p, -36, 2019 Flat TEST 0/1,0p, -2)

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Daily Tips 

3.40 Ffos Las

Looks Like Power – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365/BV) 11/1 (gen)

Ask The Weatherman – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen x5 bookies)

that’s all for today 9am, write up incoming…

Looks Like Power… a muddy staying handicap to get stuck into… i’m not sure how muddy it is, on the BHA they have it as soft rather than bottomless heavy, but it’s sure to be testing enough and if it’s drying it will likely be dead/tacky. This one is having the 11th handicap chase of his life and only the 4th over ‘his’ trip of 24f+. He’s 2/2 over fences/24f/soft-heavy and 12/1, 11/1 was just insulting as to his chance here, to my eyes anyway. 5 starts ago, on the 14th April 2018, he won like Tiger Roll in this year’s X Country chase. That was off 114 where he was clearly thrown in – you’ll rarely see a handicap chaser win so easily in such conditions- head in his chest, on the bridle. He could have gone around again. The question he has to answer is this handicap mark, now 125. Stan was on for that facile win, still claiming 3, so he is 11lb higher. 4 starts back he returned this season over fences, without his tongue tie on, after a break – he ran well there, beaten 4 1/2 L in a C3 at Exeter, on ground too quick. And he needed it, and he probably couldn’t breath over the last few, when under the pump. Albeit he wasn’t knocked around. He then ran at Chepstow in a C2 handicap hurdle, a solid 3rd off 122. He’s been kept over hurdles since – I can only assume that connections have been desperately waiting for a suitable soft ground handicap chase. They didn’t bother running him in Jan, he ran well at Ascot over hurdles, again on ground too quick, and he ran well LTO, 15 days ago. He should be spot on here and while he has to prove this mark is within reach, he’s yet to prove over fences that it isn’t. So, at his price, i’m more than happy to take a chance. He is a hold up chaser, so while not ideal I always want a price with those and at least, on paper at least, he has a fair bit of pace to aim at here. Plenty of these could fall in a hole late on, esp as a few have had hard seasons already and are looking in need of a summer at grass. I really wouldn’t be shocked if he demolished these, so i’ll pay to find out.

Ask The Weatherman… he’s very lightly lightly raced for his age under rules, this is only his 7th start since November 2017. This is only his 6th handicap chase. His last chase win was at Exeter in Nov 2017, a class 3, rated 132 and lumping 12-4 on his back. In that context it was quite a performance and he’s 2lb lower here with 11lb less on his back in actual weight. Jan to March 2018 was a write off – it doesn’t look like he appreciated running in the Welsh Nat and was PU again twice after. He returned in Dec after a break and won a novice hurdle (a weak enough race) and returned to fences in Feb – on ground far too quick for him he ran with credit and was in 3rd until after 2 out, before plodding on. That wasn’t a bad race, won by Some Chaos, who’s been one of the most progressive handicap chasers of the season. Given his profile, and how little he races, I can only assume he will be tuned up for this fully, and it looks like he’s best with a few weeks in between runs. He returns after 50 days here, with his yard going well enough and Nick Schofield jumps back on. On RPR that Exeter win was up there as on of the best amongst this field and if he repeats that level of form, he will out-run his price here. He’s a prominent racer who should track the pace and be in a ‘no excuses’ position. He can take some riding at times but 9s felt a few points too big.

The dangers… the fav is solid but 4s is short  enough for me for one who has to prove he fully sees out this trip, esp as he won’t get an easy lead. There are a few runs to suggest he may be fine/relish it, but it’s still a question and thus that price looks short enough, and I want to take him on. I won’t be shocked if he takes it,clearly.

Holdbacktheriver… he was on my final list of 3 and i have had 1/5 of a point on just in case, at 14s. He is unexposed, but he’s a hold up horse, and i’m not sure as to the level of his form. The two selections have a much higher level of chase form to date for me, but he is a big galloping sort. Evan Williams is only 1/29 in 3m handicap chases at the track also, and that did put me off a tad, for tipping purposes. He should have more races in him though but could find easier races than this.

I was happy to leave the rest. Milansbar / Shanroe Santos/Horation/Court F – well those four are too exposed… even for me! Ahem. If one of them bounces back to form, so be it, but they are not the profiles to be backing in this sort of race long term (as I try to keep reminding myself), outside of Vets races etc. Ami Desbois is flattering to deceive and with his big weight and his yard a bit cold, I can leave him. If he got back to that run two starts ago, he’d go close, but he won’t get an easy lead here either I don’t think. Those runs could be catching up with him but he’s a nice horse. At 7s I could leave. Achille had an irregular heartbeat LTO, hence that poor run. That makes you a bit anxious as it could happen again, but in any case it could affect him mentally, esp when asked for maximum effort. It may not of course but he is effectively 14lb higher than that win two starts ago, where he only scrambled home by 3/4 of a length, and would have lost if his opponent had his own resolution in a finish. So, he does need to improve again. Which he may do. 12s could be ok, but a couple of niggles there. I could leave Sparkling River given the PU two starts back and a crunching fall LTO. Not for me at 10s. Lightly enough raced so wouldn’t be a shock, but they reach for blinkers, and for a reason. His last 4 runs don’t inspire confidence. On The Road looks woefully out of form and has stamina to prove. That would be a shock result.

So, hopefully the two selections run up to their best and run their race. I think a few in here won’t, and if they do, one of them should be taking this, but in any case, they are overpriced to do so, to my subjective eyes.

Best of luck.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

4.25 P – Chasing Headlights

A Honeyball Mares

5.15 FL – Tara West

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/chasers

3.05 FL – Alf N Dor / Rock On Rocky

3.40 FL- Lord Bryan / Looks Like Power

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

I’ll ponder some Aintree thoughts at some point. An unpleasant Festival season so far with my official tipping. Aintree was rubbish, losing some focus on ‘the people’ maybe, given the races won by those usual Festival handicap suspects…  Elliot / Mullins/ Skelton (Nicholls rarely does well at Aintree in handicaps, certainly in recent years) / Henderson (none this year mind).. and I suppose De Bromhead should get a mention also, they need taking more seriously, i’ve said that before.

My race reading isn’t too shabby, annoyingly the ‘through the card’ efforts having had a great time of it, 5/20,10p, +24 at Aintree, 1 point win. +60 points across the two Festivals. My ‘think less’ / go with instinct more/ pace / ‘the people’ with some influence from thoughts from preview circuits etc, worked fairly well. Maybe there’s something in that, or it’s just been a lucky run. Anyway, there’s Punchestown and Galway to come before the year is out, Jumps festivals wise, and I will endeavour to keep the usual suspects for those meetings onside.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend, I’m off to Tabley Point to Point, the unofficial Day 4 of the Aintree meeting 🙂

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

37 Responses

  1. today’s selections.
    Plumpton
    4-25. Snippetydoodah 8-1 4 places
    Ffos Las
    2-00. Maguire’s Glen 12-1
    3-40. Achille 8-1
    4-10. Driftwood Haze 8-1 4 places

    1. think i might have missed one in the 2-00, Gone Platinum 14-1 having a rare outing over hurdles. bf finished 2nd back in january over c/d that form could be good enough even at 5lb higher, small ew saver.

      1. staked 4 pts, returns 6 pts, up 2 pts

        well i was right i did miss Gone Platinum when i first looked but the saver eased the pain

  2. today’s selections.
    Plumpton
    4-25. Snippetydoodah 8-1 4 places
    Ffos Las
    2-00. Maguire’s Glen 12-1
    3-40. Achille 8-1
    4-10. Driftwood Haze 8-1 4 places

    1. think i might have missed one in the 2-00, Gone Platinum 14-1 having a rare outing over hurdles. bf finished 2nd back in january over c/d that form could be good enough even at 5lb higher, small ew saver.

      1. staked 4 pts, returns 6 pts, up 2 pts

        well i was right i did miss Gone Platinum when i first looked but the saver eased the pain

  3. S.B.C. BULLETIN STAR DATE SUNDAY 07.04.19
    Some non-members will be disappointed to hear i just about survived yesterdays swash buckling betting frenzy . It felt like i had ” dutched” half of the national ( i had more or less 🙂 ) but luckily i made the brilliant & brave “tiger roll” as my break even horse and thanks to mc i had rathvinden e/w 🙂 ….. if magical light had found another gear ..then it was window ledge time for sure 😉 .. with the ” mrs gb ” pushing me … for sure . Also thanks to Warren for doubling up my confidence on “reserve tank” 😉 ( my gold cup winner 2021 🙂 ) the day was secured and as predicted the all weather was a wash out for me ….. i had backed my only real a.w. fancy ” wise words 8.30 w ” e/w at bfsp .. so clawed some of that back but not all of it 🙁
    no bets for me today .. day off and calm my nerves …… except my wifes dog is called alf and our friends dog is called dor ……. so will be having a full £ 1.00 e/w on ALF N DOR 3.05 Ffl 😉

    i will expect an a/w update and future winners from “mc” when it’s back on again ?

    Happy Sundaying !
    gb:)
    joint v.p.

    1. Good morning VPGB

      Glad you had a good day in the end. Even tho I lost on the GN I was chuffed for the Tiger.

      Yes. The AW was poor. I clawed some points back on Venturos as I was watching the betting and it was being nibbled at but too late to post up. A quiet day, will look at Josh and Nicks plus the ES qualifiers in the stats pack but can’t see me going large (or even medium).

      Have a good Sunday mi amigo, we shall reconvene the SBC tomorrow. Oh, by the way Warren, noticed your three qualifiers per race did quite well. Well done, thanks for sharing.

      1. yep i am also an avid disciple of ” our warren’s speed mongers ” and i made a wopping £ 2.26 on my own tipping competition results yesterday ( and that was the 5th winning day on the trot or trotting for me 😉 mind 😉 )

        a bientot !
        gb 🙂
        now heading for the nearest “harvester” … pure class aren’t i !! 😉
        …………………….. “still winning “

      2. cheers guys.
        unfortunately they take that long to do i fear a through the card wont be a regular occurance. maybe at the majour meetings.
        but i will post up the races i do do each day.
        If anyone finds them useful and wants the odd single race figures if time permits i would be happy to oblige.

        looked at 3 races today.

        fairyhouse
        2-55
        all for joy 169
        cash back 167
        eclair du beaufeu 164

        ffos las
        3-40
        looks like power 165
        lord bryan 164
        ask the weatherman 163

        4-10
        jubilani 149
        kayf moss 146
        whitley neill 144

        and again cheers everyone thats posting i had a fantatic aintree by best ever and that was down to everyone who runs and contributes.

  4. Lambourn Trainers
    2.00 F/L Shaugnessy BOG 5/2
    4.45 F/L Dara’s Present BOG 6/1
    4.25 Plumpton Sirobbie BOG 6/1
    Colin

  5. Mere Anarchy Ffos Las 14:00 1pt e/w-11/1-Tipped back in November when he finished 3rd. Has ran consistently well all season without getting his head in front with his best race coming on soft ground over 20f so I think its a plus he has similar conditions. Has a 1st and a 3rd from his only two runs on soft. Trainer had his first winner since December recently so yard coming back into some sort of form. Should be able to race up with the pace.

    Solighoster Ffos Las 16:10 1pt e/w-20/1-Neil took this race last year with Solomn Grundy (we were on) and the trainer looks to have a similar type here. Has clearly failed as a chaser although his run in a class 1 3 starts ago wouldn’t put him far away here however he is back over hurdles having had a tune up last time out on unsuitably fast ground and gets to race of his lowest mark in his career. His only run at the track which happened to be over course, distance and ground was his actual best chase effort destroying the likes of Joe Farrell and Back To The Thatch. That also happened to be the only time Best was on board so I thought it was interesting he gets the ride for the first time since than. They apply cheekpieces to bring some improvement also. I am concerned about some of the top of the market staying out this trip fully particularly as there is plenty of pace. Price just looked too big.

    1. Decided to add a 3rd

      Ask The Weatherman Ffos Las 15:40 1pt e/w 8/1-I looked at this one earlier and was on the fence but having had a second look his last run wasn’t too bad as he was only 5L behind the second given the winner followed up in a class 2 off 11lb higher. 2 other horses from the race have won. Trainer is also in much better form than before. Will be much better on this sort of ground and thought he was extremely solid at the price.

  6. As it is a quietish day and I will be posting up a lot about 2yos in the next few weeks I thought I’d put this up to help explain how I rate 2yos to anyone who wasn’t around last year.

    This was my preview of the 2018 running of the first 2yo race at Windsor
    Ratings
    1. Awake In Asia, Blown By the Wind
    2. Greeley
    Ratings Bets 1pt win both top rated, 1/2pt Rev Exacta, 1/6th pt Combo Trifecta.
    The obvious danger here is the current favourite b/f Artair from Michael Bell with JPS up. April debut winners from Mr Bell are very rare although he is perfectly capable of getting them ready if he has a precocious one. JPS can no longer be reliably expected to drop 2yos out the back which one could rely on in past seasons but these two factors are enough to let me take them on.
    Blown By The Wind for MJ has had a run and Awake In Asia for David Evans cost £65,000 and is owned by Munir and Souede. With James Doyle and John Egan respectively up and Oisin on Greeley they are definitively the best 2yo jocks in the race. The other one to mention is Solemes for Mick Channon. By Gregorian so will presumably need further and unlikely to be an early season girl.

    Post race review

    Windsor – Blown By Wind was a class above the rest both in appearance and performance. I have posted a picture of him on twitter @hughonthehill. Awake In Asia is a bit gross and will come on a lot but does not have the same ultimate potential. Artair is nicely put together but very much a now 2yo and should win his maiden. Greeley is about the same quality but was too green and boyish to do himself justice today.
    The ratings and my assumptions proved accurate for once. If you watch the replay Spencer having broken well on Artair then hauled him back behind the front line of four. It was almost inevitable that the Johnston horse would try to lead, so why disappoint the inexperienced colt and wrestle him back forfeiting ground that he would have to make up later? If he had let him run alongside Blown By Wind he would still have been beaten but not confused as well.
    Here are my estimates of OR for the principals. I will expand on how I use these when I have more time.
    Blown By Wind 85-90
    Awake In Asia 78
    Altair 74
    Greeley 70
    Here is a link to look at the photos https://imgur.com/a/oKPVe

    Today the principles ORs are
    Blown By wind 95
    Awake In Asia 60 ( my comment about his grossness perhaps explains this)
    Artair won of 74 Jan 2019 having been over-rated by the handicapper
    Greeley – ran up a hat trick finishing on 72 having been given an opening rating of 60 after 3 runs in novices. Put up here at 20’s for his first win!

    So I give a potential score pre-race and then if I have seen them my best guess of their OR potential as a 2yo. An example of how this can be used is illustrated by Greeley and Artair who I rated 70 and 74 respectively but the official handicappers marks were 60 and 83.

    Hope this is of some use to anyone taking an interest in my 2yo posts.
    Hugh
    ps I’ll post up the tomorrow’s Windsor review on tomorrow’s thread later.

    1. Hugh your posts are always useful. I for one always take note of anything you post.
      It takes a lot of effort and many thanks.

    2. Hi Hugh,
      I like Warren enjoy reading your musings and many thanks for them, I made some decent profit last year on young Greeley all from you well received notes.

      Cheers.

  7. S.B.C. BULLETIN STAR DATE SUNDAY 07.04.19
    Some non-members will be disappointed to hear i just about survived yesterdays swash buckling betting frenzy . It felt like i had ” dutched” half of the national ( i had more or less 🙂 ) but luckily i made the brilliant & brave “tiger roll” as my break even horse and thanks to mc i had rathvinden e/w 🙂 ….. if magical light had found another gear ..then it was window ledge time for sure 😉 .. with the ” mrs gb ” pushing me … for sure . Also thanks to Warren for doubling up my confidence on “reserve tank” 😉 ( my gold cup winner 2021 🙂 ) the day was secured and as predicted the all weather was a wash out for me ….. i had backed my only real a.w. fancy ” wise words 8.30 w ” e/w at bfsp .. so clawed some of that back but not all of it 🙁
    no bets for me today .. day off and calm my nerves …… except my wifes dog is called alf and our friends dog is called dor ……. so will be having a full £ 1.00 e/w on ALF N DOR 3.05 Ffl 😉

    i will expect an a/w update and future winners from “mc” when it’s back on again ?

    Happy Sundaying !
    gb:)
    joint v.p.

    1. Good morning VPGB

      Glad you had a good day in the end. Even tho I lost on the GN I was chuffed for the Tiger.

      Yes. The AW was poor. I clawed some points back on Venturos as I was watching the betting and it was being nibbled at but too late to post up. A quiet day, will look at Josh and Nicks plus the ES qualifiers in the stats pack but can’t see me going large (or even medium).

      Have a good Sunday mi amigo, we shall reconvene the SBC tomorrow. Oh, by the way Warren, noticed your three qualifiers per race did quite well. Well done, thanks for sharing.

      1. yep i am also an avid disciple of ” our warren’s speed mongers ” and i made a wopping £ 2.26 on my own tipping competition results yesterday ( and that was the 5th winning day on the trot or trotting for me 😉 mind 😉 )

        a bientot !
        gb 🙂
        now heading for the nearest “harvester” … pure class aren’t i !! 😉
        …………………….. “still winning “

      2. cheers guys.
        unfortunately they take that long to do i fear a through the card wont be a regular occurance. maybe at the majour meetings.
        but i will post up the races i do do each day.
        If anyone finds them useful and wants the odd single race figures if time permits i would be happy to oblige.

        looked at 3 races today.

        fairyhouse
        2-55
        all for joy 169
        cash back 167
        eclair du beaufeu 164

        ffos las
        3-40
        looks like power 165
        lord bryan 164
        ask the weatherman 163

        4-10
        jubilani 149
        kayf moss 146
        whitley neill 144

        and again cheers everyone thats posting i had a fantatic aintree by best ever and that was down to everyone who runs and contributes.

  8. Hi all,
    I am still learning the systems Josh recommends to start with (S1 S3A# S6)
    Can someone confirm I have this right please?

    Mellow Ben (HcH, m’s TJC and age) ES+ H1 I1 G1 Evens S3A# S4 not bet due to odds?

    Telegraph Place (HcH, m’s TJC and age) ES+ G3 10/1 S1 S3A BET due to 10/1 earlier

    Trafalgar Rock (m going) G1 16/1 S1 S2A BET at over 10/1

    Howlongisafoot (m TJC) ES+ I3 G3 13/2 S3A# S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) no bet due to odds at the moment
    Brother Bennett (all Hc’s) H3 I1 G1 6/1 S4 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) no bet due to odds at the moment

    thanks

    1. S1 and S3A# are for jumps

      Until you get your head around the rules (you may not wish to of course haha) you are simply looking for… After 8am..

      A Bold Black S1 or S3A# (they are clearly noted next to the horses above)

      OR for S1… S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) and you can set the main price of 11.00 in Betfair if that’s the instruction.

      All you need is next to the horse 🙂
      *

      Flat… Again looking for S6 in bold.

  9. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    2.00 Ffos Las Shaughnessy BOG 5/2
    NEW METHOD
    3.05 Ffos Las Vicenzo Mio BOG 10/3
    5.00 Plumpton Champion Chase BOG 4/1
    Colin

  10. Lambourn Trainers
    2.00 F/L Shaugnessy BOG 5/2
    4.45 F/L Dara’s Present BOG 6/1
    4.25 Plumpton Sirobbie BOG 6/1
    Colin

  11. As it is a quietish day and I will be posting up a lot about 2yos in the next few weeks I thought I’d put this up to help explain how I rate 2yos to anyone who wasn’t around last year.

    This was my preview of the 2018 running of the first 2yo race at Windsor
    Ratings
    1. Awake In Asia, Blown By the Wind
    2. Greeley
    Ratings Bets 1pt win both top rated, 1/2pt Rev Exacta, 1/6th pt Combo Trifecta.
    The obvious danger here is the current favourite b/f Artair from Michael Bell with JPS up. April debut winners from Mr Bell are very rare although he is perfectly capable of getting them ready if he has a precocious one. JPS can no longer be reliably expected to drop 2yos out the back which one could rely on in past seasons but these two factors are enough to let me take them on.
    Blown By The Wind for MJ has had a run and Awake In Asia for David Evans cost £65,000 and is owned by Munir and Souede. With James Doyle and John Egan respectively up and Oisin on Greeley they are definitively the best 2yo jocks in the race. The other one to mention is Solemes for Mick Channon. By Gregorian so will presumably need further and unlikely to be an early season girl.

    Post race review

    Windsor – Blown By Wind was a class above the rest both in appearance and performance. I have posted a picture of him on twitter @hughonthehill. Awake In Asia is a bit gross and will come on a lot but does not have the same ultimate potential. Artair is nicely put together but very much a now 2yo and should win his maiden. Greeley is about the same quality but was too green and boyish to do himself justice today.
    The ratings and my assumptions proved accurate for once. If you watch the replay Spencer having broken well on Artair then hauled him back behind the front line of four. It was almost inevitable that the Johnston horse would try to lead, so why disappoint the inexperienced colt and wrestle him back forfeiting ground that he would have to make up later? If he had let him run alongside Blown By Wind he would still have been beaten but not confused as well.
    Here are my estimates of OR for the principals. I will expand on how I use these when I have more time.
    Blown By Wind 85-90
    Awake In Asia 78
    Altair 74
    Greeley 70
    Here is a link to look at the photos https://imgur.com/a/oKPVe

    Today the principles ORs are
    Blown By wind 95
    Awake In Asia 60 ( my comment about his grossness perhaps explains this)
    Artair won of 74 Jan 2019 having been over-rated by the handicapper
    Greeley – ran up a hat trick finishing on 72 having been given an opening rating of 60 after 3 runs in novices. Put up here at 20’s for his first win!

    So I give a potential score pre-race and then if I have seen them my best guess of their OR potential as a 2yo. An example of how this can be used is illustrated by Greeley and Artair who I rated 70 and 74 respectively but the official handicappers marks were 60 and 83.

    Hope this is of some use to anyone taking an interest in my 2yo posts.
    Hugh
    ps I’ll post up the tomorrow’s Windsor review on tomorrow’s thread later.

    1. Hugh your posts are always useful. I for one always take note of anything you post.
      It takes a lot of effort and many thanks.

    2. Hi Hugh,
      I like Warren enjoy reading your musings and many thanks for them, I made some decent profit last year on young Greeley all from you well received notes.

      Cheers.

  12. Hi all,
    I am still learning the systems Josh recommends to start with (S1 S3A# S6)
    Can someone confirm I have this right please?

    Mellow Ben (HcH, m’s TJC and age) ES+ H1 I1 G1 Evens S3A# S4 not bet due to odds?

    Telegraph Place (HcH, m’s TJC and age) ES+ G3 10/1 S1 S3A BET due to 10/1 earlier

    Trafalgar Rock (m going) G1 16/1 S1 S2A BET at over 10/1

    Howlongisafoot (m TJC) ES+ I3 G3 13/2 S3A# S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) no bet due to odds at the moment
    Brother Bennett (all Hc’s) H3 I1 G1 6/1 S4 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) no bet due to odds at the moment

    thanks

    1. S1 and S3A# are for jumps

      Until you get your head around the rules (you may not wish to of course haha) you are simply looking for… After 8am..

      A Bold Black S1 or S3A# (they are clearly noted next to the horses above)

      OR for S1… S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) and you can set the main price of 11.00 in Betfair if that’s the instruction.

      All you need is next to the horse 🙂
      *

      Flat… Again looking for S6 in bold.

  13. Mere Anarchy Ffos Las 14:00 1pt e/w-11/1-Tipped back in November when he finished 3rd. Has ran consistently well all season without getting his head in front with his best race coming on soft ground over 20f so I think its a plus he has similar conditions. Has a 1st and a 3rd from his only two runs on soft. Trainer had his first winner since December recently so yard coming back into some sort of form. Should be able to race up with the pace.

    Solighoster Ffos Las 16:10 1pt e/w-20/1-Neil took this race last year with Solomn Grundy (we were on) and the trainer looks to have a similar type here. Has clearly failed as a chaser although his run in a class 1 3 starts ago wouldn’t put him far away here however he is back over hurdles having had a tune up last time out on unsuitably fast ground and gets to race of his lowest mark in his career. His only run at the track which happened to be over course, distance and ground was his actual best chase effort destroying the likes of Joe Farrell and Back To The Thatch. That also happened to be the only time Best was on board so I thought it was interesting he gets the ride for the first time since than. They apply cheekpieces to bring some improvement also. I am concerned about some of the top of the market staying out this trip fully particularly as there is plenty of pace. Price just looked too big.

    1. Decided to add a 3rd

      Ask The Weatherman Ffos Las 15:40 1pt e/w 8/1-I looked at this one earlier and was on the fence but having had a second look his last run wasn’t too bad as he was only 5L behind the second given the winner followed up in a class 2 off 11lb higher. 2 other horses from the race have won. Trainer is also in much better form than before. Will be much better on this sort of ground and thought he was extremely solid at the price.

  14. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    2.00 Ffos Las Shaughnessy BOG 5/2
    NEW METHOD
    3.05 Ffos Las Vicenzo Mio BOG 10/3
    5.00 Plumpton Champion Chase BOG 4/1
    Colin

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