Free Daily Post: 05/04/19 (Topham)

From the members’ post…

Stats/Trends Shortlist

4.05 

My 10/10 stats leave:

Call It Magic / Adrien Du Pont / Henryville / Forest Des Aigles / Doitforthevillage / Fact of the Matter / Indian Temple

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4.05 

Forest Des Aigles – 1 point win – 22/1 (WH/BV/Uni/Coral) 20/1 (others) (29.00 BetfExch)

Indian Temple – 1 point EW – 66/1 (WH/BetfS/PP/BV/Uni) 50s (others) (check place terms, 5 main bookies inc BetfS/PP, paying 1/5 6 places)

Kilcrea Vale – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen)  (as of 10.40)

4.05 

Blimey this race looks tough, no Ultragold this year sadly!

Forest – hits the trends profile and has experience of the fences from the Grand Sefton earlier in the season. His overall profile suggests he stays, but he seemed to stop rather quickly there. At 20s+, i’ll chance him. It could be he simply bottomed out, or there was an excuse i’m not sure. Anyway he should creep into this and he could be a better horse now, having developed in recent runs. The ground won’t be a problem for him and he looked a lively outsider. He should be thereabouts after the last, if still on his feet, and we shall see what happens after that!

Indian Temple – another trends pick. He ran 7th in this race last year, on what was officially heavier ground – i’m not sure it’s as testing as last year, but if it is, that EW bet may be out the window. He comes here after a prep run also, unlike last year, and he usually races prominently. He took to the fences well enough and I thought there was a decent chance of him being in the mix. He may not be good enough to win, or may be out-stayed but i’ll keep everything crossed that he makes the frame at worst.

Call It Magic is a worthy fav given his run in the Becher, but i’ve missed the 8/10s which would have been worth a go. Were he still that price it’s highly likely i’d have tipped him.  He should go very close, but is now 5s so i’ll leave him. Solid.

Janika – well another LTO festival tip and maybe i’ll get to the end of Day 2 wishing i’d just backed them all – but he’s got a bit weight to lug around in this ground, and is 13/2 or so- that didn’t feel overly generous but he should run his race.

The two biggies that were high on my list were Flying Angel and Kilcrea Vale – the former returned to form LTO, and has experience of the fences- although went backwards in this last year, having lost a position. Maybe he was just out of form them etc, and I will have a small nibble on him just in case. IF Kilcrea is in form (and not simply out of sorts which he may be, although ground may have been an excuse LTO), and he jumps (he can hit a few and has done around here) then he will place at worst. He should go very well here and I can see the case, and if mine fluff their lines i’ll be cheering him home…. UPDATE … as i’m writing this and having looked at him again,  it has just dawned on me how solid Kilcrea is in this , given his course form, and the ground has come for him. He’d have won the Grand Sefton but for a crucial error and I backed/tipped him that day. 16s is too big, and if he did win, that would be a sickener.

Right, that’s it. Of course I may not have mentioned the winner. It looks tough.

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2 Comments

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  • Most valuable race of the day

    Aintree
    3-25 POLITOLOGUE

    Warren Bottomley 11/08/19 9:58 PM Reply


  • Most valuable race of the day

    Aintree
    3-25 POLITOLOGUE

    Warren Bottomley 05/04/19 1:47 PM Reply


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