For Day 1, my Aintree ‘through the card’ notes from the Members’ post…
Aintree Day 1: Through The Card (+36, 1 point win, at Chelts)
1.45 – La Bague Au Roi
2.20 – Fakir D’Oudairies
2.50 – Members Tip
3.25 – Supasundae / Melon
4.05 – (Darran Pearce…) Road To Rome / Sir Jack Yeats / Topwood / Seefood
4.40 – Members Tips x2
5.15 – Miss Heritage / Farne / Timetochill
Notes for the above…
La Bague Au Roi – well she’s probably short enough but i’ve got my ‘i want winners eyes/price doesn’t matter’ head on, and she’s the one to beat. She has the best form, races prominently, has been aimed at this, and it will take a very good one to stop her. I’ll be cheering on Kalashnikov for Amy and the team of course, more heart than head i think – I do think this is more his trip and he’d have been top 3 in the Arkle but for being bumped into. Surely Spirit of The Games isn’t good enough for a G1?? But, strange things can happen at this meeting – it would be typical for me to tip him in a Festival handicap LTO, to place, and then to take a race like this at 9s!
2.20 – Fakir D’Oudairies – for my sins I nearly officially tipped this one- then I had a word with myself. Were he 6s I probably would have albeit what do I know about G1 Juvenile hurdles! – Andy Holding was very sweet on him at the Festival preview night – well, ‘on the clock’ he was far superior to Sir Erec, who we sadly lost. (that’s the same clock that pointed him to highlighting Pentland Hills’ chance in the triumph, a 20/1 winner for that day’s ‘through the card’) I fancy the Henderson horse over Band of Outlaws, just because the former won a G1, the latter a handicap. Both are clearly smart. HOWEVER- the pace set up here will be different – those were big field races, run at a solid pace. I thought this could turn a bit tactical and Fakir may benfit from that, and the fact they ran him in the Supreme suggested they liked him plenty. I could be wrong. I wouldn’t be backing him if I wasn’t going to the races, but I am, so at 4s he will do for me.
3.25 – The Fav may well take this again but Supasundae looked ok EW at 9s+, given he finished 2nd in this last year. That was on the back of a better run in the World Hurdle than this year, where he just didn’t get home at all. Aged 9, maybe he’s on the downgrade, but his runs before that over 16f suggested he needs at least 20f now. IF he runs his race, he should place, and then who knows. Melon may not be good enough but the step up in trip intrigued me. Only for change I think, as he runs as if he probably won’t get home! But, I can’t back odds -on shots, even when i’m racing – and yes I should probably leave the race alone – but who the hell does that when you’re track-side?! 🙂
4.05 – I’ve deferred to fiend of the blog Darran Pearce’s preview for this… which you can read HERE>>>
He’s been in fine form this Hunter Chase season… when looking myself I actually jotted down Road to Rome, Topwood and Seefood myself, so those three + DPs other one will do for me, for fun. The first named may be getting short enough for one that hasn’t raced around here- and that Chelt run may have taken plenty out of him. But, Sam W-C is one of the best jockeys over these fences, full stop, and he’ll be up in the van. Clearly not a race I have a strong view on but it would be fun if one of the three biggies romped home.
5.15 Miss Heritage / Farne / Timetochill
Again one of those races where unless you specialise, you probably shouldn’t touch unless you’re at the track. Miss Heritage – I just thought David Elsworth, legendary trainer that he is, wouldn’t tilt at windmills, and I thought it interesting that he’d booked Harry Cobden. She hacked up LTO, and her RPR figure is very good, her best yet (117) (the fav 125 LTO).
Farne – well the horse is in form, and I didn’t think she should be much bigger than Misty Whisky, given she was only beaten 1.5L come the line LTO – 7s plays 20s… ? Maybe that’s correct but the yard form caught my eye, and i’m playing with change, so she will do at a price. (i may have also seen a tweet from Gavin Priestly, which made me take a closer look at her, ahem) 🙂
Timetochill- that’s just about the trainer really – she’s a small yard to follow as seems to know the time of day, and this one is progressing and comes here after a break- suggesting this has been the plan. You get plenty of 14/1 +, 20/1+ winners in this race, so a few darts are advised, if you must.
If I haven’t had a winner come the mares bumper, well, I’ll need a stiff drink or five.