Members Daily Post: 04/04/19 (complete)

Trainer Pointers / Aintree Tips x3 + write ups, ‘through the card’ notes , Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Aintree

4.40 –

Theinval   (micro TJC) 12/1 S2

Molineux   (m class) G3 33/1 S1

 

Taunton

3.50 – Space Oddity   (m class) 14 G3 15/2 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP…remember you can set min odds BFSP, and leave it, no need to track prices) 

*

THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

*

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 5/38, 9p -0.4)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 3/52,16p, -23, 2019 Flat TEST 0/1,0p, -2)

*

JUMPS: BIG RACE TIPS

Aintree Day 1

2.50 – Road To Respect – 1 point win – 5/1 (gen- SkyB/WH/BetfS/PP) 9/2 (the rest)

4.40 –

Whatswrongwithyou – 1 point win – 16/1 (BV/Coral) 14/1 (gen) (16s could be gen in morning, or match bigger machine, possibly…)  

Revelyn Pleasure –  1 point win – 20/1 (gen)

that’s all for official big race tips on Day 1, as of 18.30, some ‘through the card’ thoughts below… write ups…

 

2.50 – part of my thinking with RtoR here is that it’s not impossible both Clans Des O and Bristol De Mai have left their seasons at Cheltenham, to my eyes having run their hearts out in another tough Gold Cup. In any case I don’t think they’re over-priced and if one of them blows this field away, then so be it. I can also leave Kemboy at the price, but can see the appeal.

I just thought 5s offered a bit of value for a hardy, classy horse, who looks to have ideal conditions here. Of course he may have left his race at Cheltenham also, however I don’t think the Ryanair was quite so gruelling. Sadly for him he lacks a trip a Cheltenham- the Gold Cup in soft appears to stretch him around there, however last year’s 4th was on a par with what the two above achieved this year. In the Ryanair, beaten 3L, he just lacked the pace on GS. He sat in the perfect position and kept battling, and it also transpires he lost a hind shoe, which can’t have helped. Anyway, it was another solid run from him and he rarely runs a shocker over fences, 6/16,11p in his career. 3 starts back he had a horrid run, having slipped up/caught heels twice on the flat and he did remarkably well to finish within 8L of Kemboy that day, who had an easy time on the front end. He’d have been giving him plenty to think about I think but for that. The yard are going well – they’ve been in decent form all season really – but are 3/11,5p in the last 14 days. Provided he jumps as he can, I saw no excuses here. It’s his big G1 day in the sun. (or rain/cold/over-cast)

Kemboy could be the main danger, if the other two do indeed burst, but this is effectively his first run since 28th December, however that freshness may help. There can be the odd shock in this race, but i’d be surprised if one of the other two takes this given recent form, but who knows.

I’m happy to play Road To Respect and hopefully he runs his race and out-runs his price.

*

4.40

This is a fiendishly tricky race on paper, and i’ll try and repeat Katachenko’s 16s>9/1 win from three years back, albeit my efforts in this race tend to be all or nothing, you have been warned. 🙂

The trends/stats are only useful to a point, and given some of the numbers, not that useful at all really! I think both the selections hit enough of them but it’s certainly a race to use them as a guide.

Whatswrongwithyou… well that could be an apt question come 4.50 but at 14s+ I wanted to have a go at this one, a race Henderson has targeted in recent years. His overall record is an uninspiring 0/18,3p, but those 3 places have come from his last 6 runners in the race, inc a close 2nd last year. This horse is unexposed, progressive over fences, and has a very high level of hurdles form – form that makes me think 144 may not be his ceiling as yet. His novice form was excellent, and he came a decent 3rd in an Imperial Cup in a bog, having been ridden far too cold. It could be argued he was ridden too patiently LTO also – the Grand Annual went to a make-all winner and the 2nd and 3rd (how did Bun Dorran fail to pass! urgh, the pain) were never too far away. He was in the wrong spot but ran well enough, plugging on at the end. I think this 16f cavalry charge, on this sharper, flatter, speedier track will suit him much better. I have the odd reservation about his attitude- he does need to be delivered late, but he does know how to win and has gone past horses to do so. His form is decent. I hope Nico rides him more aggressively, tracking what is likely to be plenty of pace, before pouncing after the last. He seems quietly confident in his blog, of a good run at least. He won’t mind if the ground softens further and he looked a live outsider to me.

Revelyn Pleasure – a bit of a poke here but the Irish have an OK record in this, as do those at the bottom of the weights, and the horse hasn’t run a bad race for a while now. He does need to find a bit but he’s still unexposed over fences and is another one who I thought may relish these conditions. I think this flat 16f will bring out the best in him, as will the better ground. I’m not expecting a bog tomorrow but it will be on the soft side. This one has been running out of puff over 17f at Leop (that was good ground, but stiff enough finish and faded late…he was ahead of De Bromhead’s there who’s a much shorter price in this) and 18f in soft at Gowran seemed to find him out also, having cruised to the front 3 out. Clearly he needs to improve but he’s a strong travelling sort who races prominently enough. If he can get into a rhythm and hold a position, he’ll give me some hope approaching 2 out.

Of the rest… I could mention 5/6 horses and maybe not land on the winner..

Eamon An Cnoic – well found in the market I won’t be falling off my seat if he wins, and if he cruises up 2 out, game over for the rest I fear. However he had a hard enough race LTO and Pipe is 0/6,0p in this race, most of them sent off Fav! The trip is a niggle, around here. His 16f win two starts back was at Chepstow, much more galloping, and he had to be wound up 3 out there, in a race that hasn’t worked out well as yet. He wasn’t done for stamina LTO, staying on I thought over 20f, the front 4/5 some way clear. That is decent form, but I thought he was worth taking on at 11/2. That may prove foolish.

It should be noted that in the last 11 renewals, 5 have been won by horses 16s+, and only 1 winner sent off under 8/1. Long term at least, in this race it should pay to keep throwing darts at biggies.

Brelan D’As… backed on his last two starts on these pages it would be typical for him to bolt up here, unbacked. He had every chance LTO and I still can’t believe he didn’t cruise past the other two. He possibly over-raced a tad and maybe all he wants is a flat track. He’s a strong traveller on the pace and I suspect he’ll look the winner at some stage, and he may even win! I did wonder if he’s actually handicapped to his best now. Anyway, I didn’t think 8s was overpriced but if he builds on that run LTO, he may leave me wincing.

Lady Buttons is admirable but I thought something may be better handicapped now.

Diego Du Charmil- I stared at him for an age but he has top weight and they have a poor record in this, he’s had 75 days off and has no big field chase experience to call on. Part of me thinks he could chew this lot up, spit them out and out-class them. Nicholls wasn’t very keen in his column which is unlike him (a ‘stiff task’) and reading between the lines maybe this is a prep for something else, who knows. I’m not sure he’s well handicapped as such but he won the G1 novice here last year (weak renewal though and it hasn’t worked out well) but not many/any in here could get as close to Altior as he did two starts back (even an eased down Altior). Anyway, at 8s/10s, I was on the fence and left him. Nicholls has won this race before, but he fires plenty of darts and his recent form in handicaps at this meeting is atrocious. He would be annoying, but I can live with it.

Of the bigger priced ones… i’ll mention Mcgroarty  who i’ll throw some change at on the machine, just in case. Only as he’s unexposed (but may not be good enough) and comes here fresh, having run over CD LTO. He would need to improve on that but it was at the end of a busy spell, and Newland has had a winner in recent days, having gone cold for a time. In the end the ground also put me off- i’m not sure he wants any cut, but he could be a different horse now and it’s more an unknown. You couldn’t say for sure he doesn’t handle softer ground. He would be the one winner in this that leaves me crying into my beer and I don’t think he’ll lack for fitness.

I really wasn’t that convinced by much else really. If Molineux wins for jumps S1, then it won’t be a bad result given his price! With my form eyes (the odd S1 wins that makes no sense on paper, as is the point of systems) I wasn’t sure he’d be good enough but the main concern was that this could all happen too quickly. Tizzard’s can usually be backed blind at this meeting in recent years, however the yard doesn’t look in the greatest of form, although Cucklington went close at Wincanton. Maybe they’re about to revive.

If something else wins that I haven’t mentioned – not impossible – i’ll be left scratching my head for a time 🙂

That’s the lot for day one, tipping wise.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.20 A – Fanfan Su Seuil

5.15 A – Mrs Hyde

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Jockeys/Chasers

4.40 A-  Molineux (9/1< best)

Adam Norman’s Little Black Book

1.45 A – Spiritofthegames

*

My Previous Losing Festival Tips (1/1, +2)

1.45 A – Spiritofthegames (1st run)

2.20 A – Fanfan Du Seuil (1st run)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Aintree Grand National 2019 Stats Pack: Complete… READ HERE>>>

*

Added 08.22…

Trainer Pointers from the report above

(I can’t promise this every day but will see what I can do…) 

Cheltenham LTO 3/1< (only if 3/1 or under) (not to back blind, a ‘way in’)

A) all those 3/1< that ran at Chelt LTO

B) those trainers listed, if Chelt LTO, 3/1 <

1.45 – Glen Forsa (a) / Kalashnikov (b)

2.20 – Pentland Hills (a/b) / Band of Outlaws (a) / Fakir (a)

2.5- – Clans D O (b) / Kemboy (b) / Bristol D M (b)

3.25 – Bubeur D’Air (a/b)

Trainers (ran at Chelt LTO, angles as listed in report)

1.45 – Mengli Khan (may be the one for track side change actually!)

2.20 – Pentland Hills / Fan Fan Du Seuil (10/1<) / Adjali (10/1<)

2.50 – Clans Des Obeaux / Elegant Escape

3.25 – Buveur D’Air / Verdana Blue (10/1<) /

4.40 – Whatswrongwithyou (10/1<)

**

 

Aintree Day 1: Through The Card (+36, 1 point win, at Chelts)

1.45 – La Bague Au Roi (Mengli Khan the price alternative hits GE angle above…) 

2.20 – Fakir D’Oudairies

2.50 – TIP

3.25 – Supasundae / Melon

4.05 – (Darran Pearce…) Road To Rome / Sir Jack Yeats / Topwood / Seefood

4.40 – TIPS x2

5.15 – Miss Heritage / Farne / Timetochill

*

Notes for the above to follow…

La Bague Au Roi – well she’s probably short enough but i’ve got my ‘i want winners eyes/price doesn’t matter’ head on, and she’s the one to beat. She has the best form, races prominently, has been aimed at this, and it will take a very good one to stop her. I’ll be cheering on Kalashnikov for Amy and the team of course, more heart than head i think – I do think this is more his trip and he’d have been top 3 in the Arkle but for being bumped into. Surely Spirit of The Games isn’t good enough for a G1?? But, strange things can happen at this meeting – it would be typical for me to tip him in a Festival handicap LTO, to place, and then to take a race like this at 9s!

2.20 – Fakir D’Oudairies – for my sins I nearly officially tipped this one- then I had a word with myself. Were he 6s I probably would have albeit what do I know about G1 Juvenile hurdles! – Andy Holding was very sweet on him at the Festival preview night – well, ‘on the clock’ he was far superior to Sir Erec, who we sadly lost. (that’s the same clock that pointed him to highlighting Pentland Hills’ chance in the triumph, a 20/1 winner for that day’s ‘through the card’) I fancy the Henderson horse over Band of Outlaws, just because the former won a G1, the latter a handicap. Both are clearly smart. HOWEVER- the pace set up here will be different – those were big field races, run at a solid pace. I thought this could turn a bit tactical and Fakir may benfit from that, and the fact they ran him in the Supreme suggested they liked him plenty. I could be wrong. I wouldn’t be backing him if I wasn’t going to the races, but I am, so at 4s he will do for me.

3.25 – The Fav may well take this again but Supasundae looked ok EW at 9s+, given he finished 2nd in this last year. That was on the back of a better run in the World Hurdle than this year, where he just didn’t get home at all. Aged 9, maybe he’s on the downgrade, but his runs before that over 16f suggested he needs at least 20f now. IF he runs his race, he should place, and then who knows. Melon may not be good enough but the step up in trip intrigued me. Only for change I think, as he runs as if he probably won’t get home! But, I can’t back odds -on shots, even when i’m racing – and yes I should probably leave the race alone – but who the hell does that when you’re track-side?! 🙂

4.05 – I’ve deferred to fiend of the blog Darran Pearce’s preview for this… which you can read HERE>>> 

He’s been in fine form this Hunter Chase season… when looking myself I actually jotted down Road to Rome, Topwood and Seefood myself, so those three + DPs other one will do for me, for fun. The first named may be getting short enough for one that hasn’t raced around here- and that Chelt run may have taken plenty out of him. But, Sam W-C is one of the best jockeys over these fences, full stop, and he’ll be up in the van. Clearly not a race I have a strong view on but it would be fun if one of the three biggies romped home.

5.15 Miss Heritage / Farne / Timetochill

Again one of those races where unless you specialise, you probably shouldn’t touch unless you’re at the track. Miss Heritage – I just thought David Elsworth, legendary trainer that he is, wouldn’t tilt at windmills, and I thought it interesting that he’d booked Harry Cobden. She hacked up LTO, and her RPR figure is very good, her best yet (117) (the fav 125 LTO).

Farne – well the horse is in form, and I didn’t think she should be much bigger than Misty Whisky, given she was only beaten 1.5L come the line LTO – 7s plays 20s… ? Maybe that’s correct but the yard form caught my eye, and i’m playing with change, so she will do at a price. (i may have also seen a tweet from Gavin Priestly, which made me take a closer look at her, ahem) 🙂

Timetochill- that’s just about the trainer really – she’s a small yard to follow as seems to know the time of day, and this one is progressing and comes here after a break- suggesting this has been the plan. You get plenty of 14/1 +, 20/1+ winners in this race, so a few darts are advised, if you must.

If I haven’t had a winner come the mares bumper, well, I’ll need a stiff drink or five.

Extended write ups across the board today that will no doubt get shorter as the week goes on!

*

Friday’s post will follow at some point, you’ll have to bear with me. I may not be back in the flat until 8/9 ish depending on post race plans. 

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

92 Responses

  1. Hi Josh, are you intending to post any qualifiers from the trainer micros in the Aintree stats pack, or are we to truffle them out ourselves? 🙂

  2. Another winner on Wednesday, only 8/1 though (humble brag) and so I have had a good go at Aintree on Thursday: (the prices quoted were available when I went through them on Oddschecker)

    1.45 no bet but Kalashnikov as a pick.
    2.20 Band Of Outlaws for 4 points at 15/8. I think that this horse can go on to greater things following his win at Cheltenham.
    2.50 Bristol De Mai for 2 points at 7/2. He can outstay the others if he sets a good pace and jumps well.
    3.25 Buveir D’Air for 6 points (but only if he goes odds against as I do not back odds on). He goes well at this distance and outclasses these).
    4.05 Wonderful Charm, 1 point each way at 16/1. This race looks very hard and so I have gone for some value. Paul Nicholls and Will Biddick team up on this one.
    4.40 Forest Bihan, 1 point each way at 14/1. this one has some very good course form and if getting back to that form goes well here. Also I am having 1/2 point each way on Molineaux at 33/1. Colin Tizzard has strong meeting form, James Bowen on board and only 10’4”.
    5.15 Farne, 1 point each way at 20/1. Open to improvement after just three runs and can reverse the form of his last race at a price.

    Good luck.

    1. Brilliant our martin .. always feel more comfortable wading in when your professional money is on as well .. great system / great pick 🙂
      gb 😉

  3. Cracking Find Aintree 16:40 1pt e/w 25/1-This looks like an odd race and not a lot appears to have much in hand and this one had close form with about a third of the field and shouldn’t be such a big price. Will be up with the front van and I think its a plus he stays further. Has solid form on good and soft so we don’t have to worry about just how much rain falls tomorrow.

  4. Can any one explain the craic with matchbook commission, I am only getting charged commission on winners but not losers – yet their model says you get charged irrespective of whether the horse wins?

  5. Thanks for the response Martin.

    It is this section of their T&Cs that has me confused:

    Will I get charged commission if my bet loses?

    Matchbook charges commission on volume so you will pay a small commission regardless of whether your bet wins or loses. The commission rate of 1.5%* or 0.75%* will be applied to the win amount on winning bets, or the lesser of the stake or potential win amount, for losing bets. In the case of a draw-no bet, you won’t pay any commission on that particular bet.

    1. They have never charged me on losers but I do know some of the guys at Matchbook and so in the past they may have cut me a deal? I just thought it was just the way they did things but maybe not? I did incur a premium of 7% at Betfair and so use Matchbook, Betdaq and Smarkets really. I spread the money around if I can. I am not surprised anyone introduces a premium. But as my annual profit target is £30K I can stay below upper limits by spreading bets around.
      I can also get on via Bet365, Bet Victor and Wiiliam Hill without restriction to a limit.

  6. Been full of man flu apologies for not putting up March stats, really bowled me over this flu and just got enough energy to put these out, so, must be getting better.
    Write ups to follow in the morning.
    16:05 Aintree
    MR MIX 22/1 lads 1pt e/w
    WONDERFUL CHARM 16/1 gen 1pt e/w

    16:40 Aintree
    LADY BUTTONS 8/1 gen 2pt win
    MOVIE LEGEND 16/1 gen 1pt e/w

    All the best, see you in the morning, may have one more, but, need sustenance first, what is it they say feed a flu, starve a cold…??

    1. MR MIX
      Now, he could not get anywhere near Hazel Hill at Warwick and majority of his runs have all been PTP`s, but, he posted a really good speed rating and if taking to these fences and seeing the way Hazel Hill destroyed all of these, this one should go close and at the morning 25/1 i may go in again as that is real value.Plus he`s a grey, who doesn`t love a grey??
      WONDERFUL CHARM
      Well, it was a toss up between this one and TOPWOOD , went with this fella as i think the jockey and horse are 3-3 and these National fences he has been over before, (although he was out of form this time last year). He won by an absolute mile at Donny in February, let`s hope there is more to come.

      16:40
      LADY BUTTONS
      Never really understood why they went to Cheltenham for a hurdle race with her when she had been jumping fences, this drop back in trip (which i always bang on about), is a plus and she will be in the vanguard once they straighten up for home. Value at 7-8/1 as she has been no better than 7/2 every time she has won.
      MOVIE LEGEND
      Now again within the 3 that i picked was this one and CRACKING FIND, both i felt were over priced, but, as i have been criticised for picking 3 I narrowed it down to these two, only to see NM had picked it…haha. Anyways Movie Legend has progressed twice since his wind op and there is no reason why he can`t figure here, 16/1 is too big for a horse progressing this quick and he is a steady ship that should stay on when all the others have cried foul.

      Hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today, mind how you go!

  7. Hi Josh, are you intending to post any qualifiers from the trainer micros in the Aintree stats pack, or are we to truffle them out ourselves? 🙂

    1. Truffle them I think, unless some kind soul wishes to do it and post them up in the comments –
      In fact i’ll happily send anyone some beer money – £15 ? – who wishes to do so, as I don’t think i’ll have the time, and certainly by this time tomorrow, the energy 🙂 I don’t have them saved in HRB either, room at a premium.
      Josh

  8. Another winner on Wednesday, only 8/1 though (humble brag) and so I have had a good go at Aintree on Thursday: (the prices quoted were available when I went through them on Oddschecker)

    1.45 no bet but Kalashnikov as a pick.
    2.20 Band Of Outlaws for 4 points at 15/8. I think that this horse can go on to greater things following his win at Cheltenham.
    2.50 Bristol De Mai for 2 points at 7/2. He can outstay the others if he sets a good pace and jumps well.
    3.25 Buveir D’Air for 6 points (but only if he goes odds against as I do not back odds on). He goes well at this distance and outclasses these).
    4.05 Wonderful Charm, 1 point each way at 16/1. This race looks very hard and so I have gone for some value. Paul Nicholls and Will Biddick team up on this one.
    4.40 Forest Bihan, 1 point each way at 14/1. this one has some very good course form and if getting back to that form goes well here. Also I am having 1/2 point each way on Molineaux at 33/1. Colin Tizzard has strong meeting form, James Bowen on board and only 10’4”.
    5.15 Farne, 1 point each way at 20/1. Open to improvement after just three runs and can reverse the form of his last race at a price.

    Good luck.

    1. Hi Martin great winner today to go with last couple of days good start to the month
      Is there any Golf Tips for this week coming on the Freepost ?
      Regards

      Peter

      1. Yes, Golf Tips for Texas will go up on the free blog for Thursday. I am running behind what with Aintree and other projects.

        1. I have posted them now on Wednesday but will re post them on Thursday in case anyone has missed them.

  9. Systems selection:

    Karl Burke at Southwell, 1.55 Sylviacliffs, 1 point each way, 13/2 now.

    Good luck

    1. Brilliant our martin .. always feel more comfortable wading in when your professional money is on as well .. great system / great pick 🙂
      gb 😉

  10. Cracking Find Aintree 16:40 1pt e/w 25/1-This looks like an odd race and not a lot appears to have much in hand and this one had close form with about a third of the field and shouldn’t be such a big price. Will be up with the front van and I think its a plus he stays further. Has solid form on good and soft so we don’t have to worry about just how much rain falls tomorrow.

  11. Can any one explain the craic with matchbook commission, I am only getting charged commission on winners but not losers – yet their model says you get charged irrespective of whether the horse wins?

    1. The winner pays the commission to matchbook and the loser just loses their stake. So £10 is laid by A and B takes the £10 as a bet. If B wins he gets £10 less 2% that goes to Matchbook, so £9.80 and A just loses their £10. I know this sounds obvious but I have never paid commission on a loser.

      1. Here is Matchbook’s commission.

        “Matchbook charges commission on volume so you will pay a small commission regardless of whether your bet wins or loses. The commission rate of 1.5%* or 0.75%* will be applied to the win amount on winning bets, or the lesser of the stake or potential win amount, for losing bets. ”

        But you are right Francis, they seem to have stopped charging it, I paid nothing today.

        Shhh! Don’t tell them.

        1. They do charge 1.7% on winners I’ve noticed. That is because we are in the UK and so they kindly levy a point of consumption tax, however if all losers are commission free that’s a pretty good deal. The liquidity on betfair during the day really is woeful now and not much better close to the off. Matchbook is pretty much at the same level. Seeing as most my betting has to be close to the off now, I think me and betfair will be parting company.

          1. Just to finish on this topic, I’ve read they have changed their commission structure to be the same model as the others i.e. commission only on winners – I think from 1st March. That means 2% on all sports except horse racing which is 1.5%. The point of consumption tax for UK residents is additional and makes effective commission 1.7% on horse racing.

            Tragically, they have also introduced a premium charge like betfair too, which allows them to take up to 60% of Net Profits per calendar month if you have lifetime profits over £20k. They are all as greedy as each other.

  12. Thanks for the response Martin.

    It is this section of their T&Cs that has me confused:

    Will I get charged commission if my bet loses?

    Matchbook charges commission on volume so you will pay a small commission regardless of whether your bet wins or loses. The commission rate of 1.5%* or 0.75%* will be applied to the win amount on winning bets, or the lesser of the stake or potential win amount, for losing bets. In the case of a draw-no bet, you won’t pay any commission on that particular bet.

    1. They have never charged me on losers but I do know some of the guys at Matchbook and so in the past they may have cut me a deal? I just thought it was just the way they did things but maybe not? I did incur a premium of 7% at Betfair and so use Matchbook, Betdaq and Smarkets really. I spread the money around if I can. I am not surprised anyone introduces a premium. But as my annual profit target is £30K I can stay below upper limits by spreading bets around.
      I can also get on via Bet365, Bet Victor and Wiiliam Hill without restriction to a limit.

  13. today’s selections.
    Taunton.
    2-05. Sadma 8-1 4 places
    3-10. Muthabir 10-1
    both 1/2 pt ew
    Aintree to follow

  14. Skybet have said goodbye to me! They let me back on but I am off again.

    They also sent me a message saying, reading between the lines, that their website/App may konk out on Saturday due to volume, but not mine obviously.

  15. just a comment but does The Flying Portrait 66-1 really deserve to be the rag in this race ? (A 4-40) should come on from run at Cheltenham and will bowl along up front at least as good if not better chance than half the field, might not be able to hang on for a place but in my eyes overpriced. £1 ew just in case.

  16. RECENT TIPS
    Festival/BRT
    A 1.45 – Spiritofthegames on 1st run @ 10
    A 4.40 – Brelan D’As on 1st and 2nd run @ 9
    aw
    C 7.00 – Auarium on 6th run @ 12
    3m+
    A 4.05 – Mr Mix on 4th run @ 25
    T 3.50 – Sporting Boy on 2nd run @ 8
    GL

  17. There’s a great bet on Fans bet – Tiger Roll and Tiger Woods both to finish in the top 5 places 8-1 max bet £25.00 get on it.

  18. COLINS BETS
    Chelmsford
    6.30 Samphire Coast BOG 7/2
    7.00 Aquarium BOG 11/1
    ELITE BETS
    4.15 Southwell Space War BOG 16/1
    6.30 Chelmsford Intrepidly BOG 7/2
    NEW METHOD
    Southwell
    1.55 Dolly Dupree BOG 7/2
    4.15 Dream Alley BOG 4/1
    5.30 Bonneville BOG 4/1
    Taunton
    2.05 Veiled Secret BOG 5/2
    4.25 Triple Chief BOG 5/2
    Chelmsford
    8.30 Top Rock Talula BOG 10/3
    Colin

  19. today’s selections.
    Taunton.
    2-05. Sadma 8-1 4 places
    3-10. Muthabir 10-1
    both 1/2 pt ew
    Aintree to follow

    1. Aintree.
      4-05. Mr Mix 25-1 4 places, 18-1 5 places
      4-40. Lady Buttons 8-1 5 places
      both 1/2 pt ew

  20. Lambourn Trainers
    Yesterday 2 placed yesterday out of 4 at decent prices, but only record win only.

    4.40 Aintree Whatswrongwithyou BOG 22/1
    4.40 ” Theinval BOG 12/1
    Both Nicky Henderson’s runners and he targets this, whatswrongwithyou missed Ascot for this, and Theinval been 2nd twice in the last two years.
    No more updates
    Colin

  21. i’ll have a go at answering that , i think i know what you mean . you can only set a minimum price and then decide whether to take bfsp (keep) or your not willing to take a lower price and just leave setting to cancel .

  22. Yo George B and any other SBC members.

    Been busy constructing plenty of Aintree bets (which I will not burden you with), so will post some Chelmsford thoughts later this pm 🙂

    1. blimey just came on and saw no decipels of the S.B.C. on or left messages 🙂
      and here you are ! .. glad your hard at work ready to pillage the bookies satchels this afternoon and evening 😉

      I have just got back from another hospital visit ( low blood platelets ) which may delay my lipoma excavation op in may .. i hope not 🙁 … but it’s hard to keep a good man down !!
      now got 2 tonne of southwell systems to look at .. be back asap …. don’t all groan at once !!! 🙂

      gl/ gb
      🙂

  23. Skybet have said goodbye to me! They let me back on but I am off again.

    They also sent me a message saying, reading between the lines, that their website/App may konk out on Saturday due to volume, but not mine obviously.

  24. As its my day off today and i have a little more time i thought i would post up my home brew speed/pace findings that i use everyday. i dont usually go through a card i will normally look to a way in on a race i.e josh’s section one qualifiers, trainer stats, jockey trainer combo, tracker horses anything that i feel sticks out and needs further investigation. i will shortlist the top three (which is what ive posted) if they coincide with my initial way in then that is my guide of my selection in that race. so i dont always pick what comes out on top but it helps me narrow the field and makes things easier for me.
    so below are my initial speed/pace top 3 for each race.

    1-45
    spirtit of the games 208
    glen forsa 199
    la bague au roi 193

    2-20
    pentland hills 195
    band of outlaws 188
    fakir d’ oudairies 186

    2-50
    clan des obeaux 211
    bristol de mai 206
    road to respect 199

    3-25
    buveur d’ air 206
    faugheen 190
    verdana blue 185

    4-05
    road to rome 172
    wonderfull charm 166
    kruzhlinin 161

    4-40
    theflyingportrait 197
    cracking find 193
    movie legend 188

    5-15
    minella meloby 149
    timetochill 146
    misty whisky 144

    they are not tips im just information sharing with my RTP family. 🙂

  25. just a comment but does The Flying Portrait 66-1 really deserve to be the rag in this race ? (A 4-40) should come on from run at Cheltenham and will bowl along up front at least as good if not better chance than half the field, might not be able to hang on for a place but in my eyes overpriced. £1 ew just in case.

    1. I’ve gone on Martin. Tipped and won @ good odds for both Josh and Nick in the last year along with Ben Aitken’s to follow list for summer 2018
      Mike

  26. NAAHH It’s ok with my platelets really …. i have half as many as i shud but lucky twice the size 😉 … they are just fascinated as to why my platelets are not very sticky / congeleable ( which helps the scabbing processing ) but not on any endangered list yet and op for lipoma goes ahead for 3rd may all being well 🙂

    JUST PUT MY STRONGER SOUTHWELL OPINIONS IN MY TIPPING COMPETITION ENTRANTS 🙂 ( JUST THE 16 🙂 )

    Quite like the idea of CAPTAIN LARS IN THE 8.00 AT CHELMERS TONIGHT

    Good luck to all horse and mankind this afternoon ;
    gl/gb 🙂

    1. JUST ONE MORE SHOWN UP FOR CHELMERS TONIGHT

      (45) FLAT ONE MAN AND HIS HORSE WENT RACING ALONE
      7.30 Chelmsford City 4 COLD FIRE (IRE) Brisland, Robyn 17/2
      TRAINER IS “HAVING IT” AT THE MOMENT 🙂 E/W I GUESS ???

      GL/GB 🙂

  27. RECENT TIPS
    Festival/BRT
    A 1.45 – Spiritofthegames on 1st run @ 10
    A 4.40 – Brelan D’As on 1st and 2nd run @ 9
    aw
    C 7.00 – Auarium on 6th run @ 12
    3m+
    A 4.05 – Mr Mix on 4th run @ 25
    T 3.50 – Sporting Boy on 2nd run @ 8
    GL

  28. There’s a great bet on Fans bet – Tiger Roll and Tiger Woods both to finish in the top 5 places 8-1 max bet £25.00 get on it.

  29. COLINS BETS
    Chelmsford
    6.30 Samphire Coast BOG 7/2
    7.00 Aquarium BOG 11/1
    ELITE BETS
    4.15 Southwell Space War BOG 16/1
    6.30 Chelmsford Intrepidly BOG 7/2
    NEW METHOD
    Southwell
    1.55 Dolly Dupree BOG 7/2
    4.15 Dream Alley BOG 4/1
    5.30 Bonneville BOG 4/1
    Taunton
    2.05 Veiled Secret BOG 5/2
    4.25 Triple Chief BOG 5/2
    Chelmsford
    8.30 Top Rock Talula BOG 10/3
    Colin

  30. Lambourn Trainers
    Yesterday 2 placed yesterday out of 4 at decent prices, but only record win only.

    4.40 Aintree Whatswrongwithyou BOG 22/1
    4.40 ” Theinval BOG 12/1
    Both Nicky Henderson’s runners and he targets this, whatswrongwithyou missed Ascot for this, and Theinval been 2nd twice in the last two years.
    No more updates
    Colin

  31. i’ll have a go at answering that , i think i know what you mean . you can only set a minimum price and then decide whether to take bfsp (keep) or your not willing to take a lower price and just leave setting to cancel .

    1. It was marvellous, more so how he settled him as he pulled so hard early. Once he put him to sleep on front end…well there is no-one better and everyone else in trouble.
      Crap ride on mine, holding him up like that and giving no chance but more rain has fallen then I expected and didn’t think it would be proper soft so quick. Still, decent race and that winner looks very smart esp when uncontested lead. On that evidence Willie may have had 1-2 in Gold Cup.

  32. Nice win josh. buveur d’ air slipped on a melon but I don’t think he would of got to the winner. Annoyingly backed supersundae at Cheltenham

  33. Yo George B and any other SBC members.

    Been busy constructing plenty of Aintree bets (which I will not burden you with), so will post some Chelmsford thoughts later this pm 🙂

    1. blimey just came on and saw no decipels of the S.B.C. on or left messages 🙂
      and here you are ! .. glad your hard at work ready to pillage the bookies satchels this afternoon and evening 😉

      I have just got back from another hospital visit ( low blood platelets ) which may delay my lipoma excavation op in may .. i hope not 🙁 … but it’s hard to keep a good man down !!
      now got 2 tonne of southwell systems to look at .. be back asap …. don’t all groan at once !!! 🙂

      gl/ gb
      🙂

  34. As its my day off today and i have a little more time i thought i would post up my home brew speed/pace findings that i use everyday. i dont usually go through a card i will normally look to a way in on a race i.e josh’s section one qualifiers, trainer stats, jockey trainer combo, tracker horses anything that i feel sticks out and needs further investigation. i will shortlist the top three (which is what ive posted) if they coincide with my initial way in then that is my guide of my selection in that race. so i dont always pick what comes out on top but it helps me narrow the field and makes things easier for me.
    so below are my initial speed/pace top 3 for each race.

    1-45
    spirtit of the games 208
    glen forsa 199
    la bague au roi 193

    2-20
    pentland hills 195
    band of outlaws 188
    fakir d’ oudairies 186

    2-50
    clan des obeaux 211
    bristol de mai 206
    road to respect 199

    3-25
    buveur d’ air 206
    faugheen 190
    verdana blue 185

    4-05
    road to rome 172
    wonderfull charm 166
    kruzhlinin 161

    4-40
    theflyingportrait 197
    cracking find 193
    movie legend 188

    5-15
    minella meloby 149
    timetochill 146
    misty whisky 144

    they are not tips im just information sharing with my RTP family. 🙂

    1. brilliant warren …. you are heading for S.B.C. form student of the month at this rate 😉

      I love to see how other approach this mind juggling “quandry” of an equine puzzle ….. be interesting going forward …………… 😉 keep up the good work 🙂

      gl/ gb 🙂

      1. Sorry to hear about your platelets G. Hope you’re feeling ok to attack the AW (will you have Wi-Fi in hospital? 🙂 🙂

  35. SBC Chelmsford Update

    Hi G and any other AW followers. Well, a few hours studying Aintree has made me look forward to the AW tonite!

    6.30 I fear the favourite but like Samphire Coast in this.

    7.00 Small split win stakes on Main Street and Swiss Srorm

    7.30 I see the GB Babbage Computer has spewed out Cold Fire. On horse form not keen but on trainer and George B form very keen. EW I think as fancy Arlechhinos Arc to win. Also keen on Polyissimo EW. Good T/J stats. First run for trainer and trying a new trip.

    8.00 I see where you’re coming from with Captain Lars but will also do Dynamo Walt.

    8.30 I like Apex Predator a lot, saving on Normandy Blue.

    So pick the bones out of that lot. If my Aintree form carries on tonite I’ll be in the Poorhouse by breakfast time 🙂

    1. blimey 10/10 for working on through detention after aintree !! 🙂
      Thanks for these sure things 😉 .. will go have some bets and savers on these now … and thanks for highlighting normandy blue .. i always back all the “normandy” horses – cheers my man 🙂
      did u see i made a scintillating £ 5.56 profit in the compo today 🙂 ..added 2 more for tonight there as well 😉

      keep up the good work team S.B.C. !
      One day soon we iz gonna smash them bookies back doors in and steal the lot from them ……………. well the money i had already lent them anyway 🙂
      rgds
      gb 🙂

  36. BTW G, Jenkins/Probert have Carvelas at Chelmers tonite,.into to 40/1 from 50/1 with Skybet, be annoying if it ran into a place, tho looking a bit donkey like of late?

  37. NAAHH It’s ok with my platelets really …. i have half as many as i shud but lucky twice the size 😉 … they are just fascinated as to why my platelets are not very sticky / congeleable ( which helps the scabbing processing ) but not on any endangered list yet and op for lipoma goes ahead for 3rd may all being well 🙂

    JUST PUT MY STRONGER SOUTHWELL OPINIONS IN MY TIPPING COMPETITION ENTRANTS 🙂 ( JUST THE 16 🙂 )

    Quite like the idea of CAPTAIN LARS IN THE 8.00 AT CHELMERS TONIGHT

    Good luck to all horse and mankind this afternoon ;
    gl/gb 🙂

    1. JUST ONE MORE SHOWN UP FOR CHELMERS TONIGHT

      (45) FLAT ONE MAN AND HIS HORSE WENT RACING ALONE
      7.30 Chelmsford City 4 COLD FIRE (IRE) Brisland, Robyn 17/2
      TRAINER IS “HAVING IT” AT THE MOMENT 🙂 E/W I GUESS ???

      GL/GB 🙂

    1. It was marvellous, more so how he settled him as he pulled so hard early. Once he put him to sleep on front end…well there is no-one better and everyone else in trouble.
      Crap ride on mine, holding him up like that and giving no chance but more rain has fallen then I expected and didn’t think it would be proper soft so quick. Still, decent race and that winner looks very smart esp when uncontested lead. On that evidence Willie may have had 1-2 in Gold Cup.

  38. Nice win josh. buveur d’ air slipped on a melon but I don’t think he would of got to the winner. Annoyingly backed supersundae at Cheltenham

  39. SBC Chelmsford Update

    Hi G and any other AW followers. Well, a few hours studying Aintree has made me look forward to the AW tonite!

    6.30 I fear the favourite but like Samphire Coast in this.

    7.00 Small split win stakes on Main Street and Swiss Srorm

    7.30 I see the GB Babbage Computer has spewed out Cold Fire. On horse form not keen but on trainer and George B form very keen. EW I think as fancy Arlechhinos Arc to win. Also keen on Polyissimo EW. Good T/J stats. First run for trainer and trying a new trip.

    8.00 I see where you’re coming from with Captain Lars but will also do Dynamo Walt.

    8.30 I like Apex Predator a lot, saving on Normandy Blue.

    So pick the bones out of that lot. If my Aintree form carries on tonite I’ll be in the Poorhouse by breakfast time 🙂

    1. blimey 10/10 for working on through detention after aintree !! 🙂
      Thanks for these sure things 😉 .. will go have some bets and savers on these now … and thanks for highlighting normandy blue .. i always back all the “normandy” horses – cheers my man 🙂
      did u see i made a scintillating £ 5.56 profit in the compo today 🙂 ..added 2 more for tonight there as well 😉

      keep up the good work team S.B.C. !
      One day soon we iz gonna smash them bookies back doors in and steal the lot from them ……………. well the money i had already lent them anyway 🙂
      rgds
      gb 🙂

  40. BTW G, Jenkins/Probert have Carvelas at Chelmers tonite,.into to 40/1 from 50/1 with Skybet, be annoying if it ran into a place, tho looking a bit donkey like of late?

  41. Been full of man flu apologies for not putting up March stats, really bowled me over this flu and just got enough energy to put these out, so, must be getting better.
    Write ups to follow in the morning.
    16:05 Aintree
    MR MIX 22/1 lads 1pt e/w
    WONDERFUL CHARM 16/1 gen 1pt e/w

    16:40 Aintree
    LADY BUTTONS 8/1 gen 2pt win
    MOVIE LEGEND 16/1 gen 1pt e/w

    All the best, see you in the morning, may have one more, but, need sustenance first, what is it they say feed a flu, starve a cold…??

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.