Members Daily Post: 03/04/19 (complete)

Tip x1+ write up, Section 1 (complete), test zone, updates…

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Market Rasen

2.00 – Eolian   (HcH) G3 3/1  2nd 

3.05 –

Troubled Soul   (micro class) 14 H3 5/1 2nd 

Dartford Warbler   (m TJC) H1 G3 3/1 UP

Showem Silver   (m class) 14 16/1 S2A UP

4.05 –

Rebel Royal   (m dist) 12/1 S2 UP

Collooney   (HcH)  w2 H3 4/1  3rd, 7/1 

4.35 –

Carrolls Milan   (m class) 14 w1 H1 G3 10/3  WON 

Big Penny   (m -class) G3 10/1 S1 S2 UP

 

Wincanton

3.15 –

Bally Longford   (HcCh)  ES+ H3 8/1 S3A  2nd 12/1 

Saintemilion   (m Hcdedut)  w1 H1 6/4 UP

3.45 –

Wizards Bridge   (HcCh)  ES+ H3 13/2 S3A UP

Cucklington   (HcCh, m -class)  ES+ 3/1 S3A 2nd 

4.45 – Tomorrow Mystery   (m hcdebut) 6/4 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 5/38, 9p -0.4)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 3/52,16p, -23, 2019 Flat TEST 0/1,0p, -2)

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Daily Tips 

(wins/bets/places added in daily tips results summary above… 5/37, 9p, +0.6… in the daily tips since I tried to refocus on 3m+ handicap chases, 22nd Feb, in said races.. 5/19,6p, +9… if i’d left C5s + Vets races alone … it’s 5/14, 6p, +14) 

3.45 Wincanton – PINK GIN – 1 point win – 9/2 (gen) UP 5/2, oh well he blew the start, having rushed the tape, had to stop, it then went up and he lost 6L+.  tried to play catch up but for one who likes to be more prominent and in a rhythm , i’m not sure that helped but given the effort after i’m not sure it mattered to much, could never seem to get into it, odd scrappy jump, tired up the straight. Damn. River of Intrigue did look the other interesting one at the odds, but I didn’t rate his run LTO on bare form – he split horses in their 80s. However , is racing post rating was 117 – Pink Gin’s was 114 when he won, so maybe need to put even more weight on that as an indicator to level of performance. Beating the SP the only ‘positive’ there. 

that’s all for today, 8.21, write up..

A case could be made that Pink Gin should be vying for favouritism in this and I certainly don’t think he should be bigger than 3/1, as his chance of winning this to my eyes is at least 25%, if not higher. Two starts ago, on decent ground over CD, he somewhat bolted up to my eyes, off 105. He had plenty left at the end there and could have kept going, somewhat sprinting (relatively) away from the last. The fourth from that race then followed up in an ok race, off 113, now rated 119. I fancied him LTO at Exeter to cause a shock of sorts but the rain came and I think it went a tad too soft for him – in any case I think he may have just been outclassed also, given that was a 0-125, this is a 0-110, two of the horses in front of him there were rated 125/122, and they were in-form. He was bang there at 2 out, before tiring a tad, and it was after 59 days off. I’m not sure if they had an issue but he could strip fitter for it, and be sharper here.

Today he drops back in class, into a much weaker race, back to a CD where he has a good record – including in softer ground. It is Good (good to soft in places) which is perfect for him, with the chance of the odd shower. They have thrown 27mm of water on this in recent days so they could be playing silly buggers with the going – it may well actually be softer, guessing a bit, but he goes on soft no problem. Despite his age, in the context of this race, he’s actually one of the least exposed over fences. This is only his 12th chase start, and only his 4th on going with Good in the description. On Racing Post Ratings his win two starts back matched his career high, so on that score he certainly isn’t regressing. That was off 105. With today’s 5lb claim he now runs off 103, which is actually the lowest he’s ever run off over fences, yet he’s arguably in the form of his life. The booking of Zac Baker is a positive I think- that 5lb will help – he doesn’t know the horse which is always a niggler but Trainer/Jockey are…

  • 14/65, 24p +13 SP in all handicaps together
  • 9/40, 16p in handicap chases… that improves to 8/23,13p, +18 in ALL class 4 handicaps… 4/9,6p when over fences.
  • They are 4/14,6p when teaming up in the last year.

So, stats wise, nothing to complain about there. Zac has only had 4 rides in handicaps at the track, placing 3 times.

The horse likes to race prominently, as do a few in here – he doesn’t have to lead, so i’m relying on Zac being sensible. But on this ground, given the form he’s in, he may have too much pace for some of these. When he won here his jumping was superb, he took lengths out of the field at the odd fence, and he if can hold a prominent position and jump as he can, he will be bang there at the death. Twisters are going along just fine also, no issues with the yard form, unlike a few trainers in this…

To me he looked the overpriced in this, and I didn’t want to be on anything else.

Of the rest…

Well Toosey isn’t overpriced I don’t think. He is still unexposed to a point I think but is on a career high chase mark, 12lb above that Ayr win. He did bolt up there in a race that has worked out well for the grade, but he does have to prove he is as effective going RH, and he arrives on the back of a break. I won’t be shocked if he improves again, but I can take him on at 11/4. The yard are 0/14,4p in the last 14 days, so ok.

I can leave the Tizzard pair also – much may depend on which side of the bed they get out of as they are both moody enough. They have the ability to take this for sure, and Cucklington looks to be the main hope – he won this last year, but this hasn’t exactly been a plan. Anyway, he’s 3/1, and with his profile I can happily leave him at those odds. If he’s on a going day, then so be it. The Tizzard form is a concern, especially with Aintree starting tomorrow – a meeting in recent years where, as per my report below, you can effectively just back them blind. However they are 1/17 in the last 14 days, 2/65 in the last month – there could be issues there, as plenty at the shorter end haven’t been seeing out their races. They could be fine, we shall see. I wouldn’t mind seeing some positive signs from their 4 runners today esp as all are 13/2 or shorter.

I can leave the rest. River Of Intrigue isn’t the most consistent but ran well LTO. I think Pink Gin is a better horse, if he runs his race and having watched his run LTO , I didn’t like the way he jumped- not the most fluent at times. He is in form though, but did have a hard race there in softening ground. 7s may be a tad too big but given his overall profile i’ll leave. Copperfacejack is just unpredictable, plenty of letters in his profile, and not the sort to be backing regularly, over time. The break suggests an issue but at his best he has the ability to take a race like this, but I can’t chance him. A bit too much guessing, inc fitness. Fearsome Fred just shouldn’t be good enough, he needs every other horse to not run their race, which is asking a bit too much I think.

So, that’s that. Pink Gin was 6s in the odd place last night which is annoying, and 5s this morning when I started looking – but he’s either been tipped up somewhere or team Twister are looking to pay for their summer hols. 🙂 I still thought 9/2 was value, and even 4s. That could be 1, 1.5 points, too big still. Famous last words but he looks sure to run his race here, and I couldn’t say that about many of the others with confidence.

Best of luck.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.05 MR – Troubled Soul

Tom Lacey 

4.05 MR – Johnbb

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning hurdlers

4.05 MR – Ice Gallery

Trainers to follow

4.05 MR – The Sweeney (14/1<)

4.05 MR – Johnbb

Jockeys/chasers

3.45 W – Cucklington

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

3.15 W – Saintemillion

4.15 W – Midnight Owle

Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

4.05 MR – Monty’s Award

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book 

2.30 MR – Garrettstown (long term, guide)

4.05 MR – Regarding Ruth (short term, guide)

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Results Updates 

I will bring everything up to speed after Aintree and I need to update/tidy up plenty in The Key/welcome info. As always this is a hectic time of year, what with Chelt, Aintree, Punch, doing the stats for the Flat etc, and such admin finds it’s way to the bottom of the pile. In section 2 above, as always, basic ‘tipping’ results are there.

Spreadsheet… of various things inc all the strategies, daily tips, etc can be found HERE>>> 

I’ll provide an updates one for the ‘big race’ tips after Aintree but again the overall results are in Section 2.

Below is an update to the advised strategies for 2019.

I’ll be pulling together a doc with a ‘next best’, having looked back at some results etc. And this will mainly be Jumps S3A and W2, and Flat S1, S3A# and S4. That will include historical results to date.

As always if you have any questions, post away, or email me.

 

IMPORTANT!

Section 1: Advised Strategies 2019 : READ HERE>>>

I’m busy updating results etc but have tidied up the above document, incorporating the Flat.

Flat S6 is ‘the’ strategy there, along with jumps S1 and S3A#. In 2018 they collectively pulled in +225 points in live play. Jumps S1/S3A# have been treading water so far in 2019, but 9 months to go for those to pick up!

Please read the document above, even if an old hand. A refresher is never a bad thing 🙂

If it doesn’t mean anything, just wait as always until around 8am on the day of racing when I add those black symbols next to relevant qualifiers!

 

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A note on jumps w2, which is starting to look promising… 

Since the start of 2018, Jumps W2 (horse won two starts back, denoted by w2 ) are, as of end of March> 

167 bets / 52 wins / 99 places (inc wins) / +61.76 points (early odds, 8am on day)

They are starting to look more solid. It may make logical sense why the w1 (won LTO) offer little value, and for why w2 may do well, given the horse could still be in form/well handicapped, may have been unlucky LTO (may have won LTO also) etc, and the trainer is running them at a track they do well at (hence why in section 1 in first place) Anyway, absorb those as you please. I may let them run for a few more months before nailing my flag to the mast. In any case, those w2 qualifiers are another good ‘starting point’ that makes logical sense.

The Flat…

S6 is the main strategy to follow, based on evidence in live play over two full years. It looks to be a solid 50-80 points per year strategy that can be backed to BFSP. Fingers crossed it can perform as it did last year. It did drop off in Oct/November and that may be something to consider next Autumn, depending on how it’s performed.

Flat S1 and S4 – i’m not sure they are worth following in truth, but certainly their return has been better than the bank – if not a bit underwhelming.

In 2018 those two combined, inc multiple qualifiers, were… 269 bets / 63 wins / 125 places (inc wins) / +22.25 points. It’s a bit of a boring approach to follow really, and may well depend on the odd biggie making or breaking a season.

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Tipping Competition… it’s back for April, hopefully you can see the post where you can comment away. Same rules as Feb with a £50 cash prize to the winner. And the possibility of the odd discrationary cash prize for those who add to the community vibe etc. 

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Aintree Grand National 2019 Stats Pack: Complete… READ HERE>>>

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

101 Responses

  1. Tips – 4.05 MR, Ballyvic Boru, 1 point each way, 16/1 now. A front runner who seems to stay this distance. Brian Ellison puts up Danny Cook. I do fear Earlofthecotswolds off top weight but at the price I will have a go on Ballyvic Boru.

    7.15 KP, Dono Di Dio, 1 point each way, 8/1 now. Drops back in distance after a run of seconditis. Only a four year old and so room for improvement and with a 7LB claimer on board taking weight off. Some course form from the trainer.

    System selections:
    Emma Lavelle handicappers 5/1 + – 4.05 MR, The Sweeney, 1 point each way, 8/1 now.
    Karl Burke at Southwell – 4.55 Southwell, Baron Run, 1 point each way, 9/1 now.

  2. COLINS BETS
    Winner 6/4 stayed 6/4
    2nd 13/2 to 9/2
    unplaced 9/2 to 9/4
    unplaced 5/2 to 2/1
    most of my bets are normally well backed, anyway decision day later.

      1. They are fascinating results. It makes perfect logical sense why value would be non existent at the top end, under 3/1.
        Colin you should be proud of those profit figures in Ken’s 3/1-12/1 range, with some freedom for those a bit higher, for Colin’s Bets.

        82 points at early odds/bog (and you’re posting on day most of time, not snaffling unobtainable stand out evening odds) from July to End March 19 is very solid, at a 24% ROI.
        Leaving those under 3s maybe the way forward and just backing those in said price range at time of posting.

        As looks like those under 3s run at a hefty enough loss and even if best case was wiping their face, it’s an awful lot of bets that can be removed. Whatever your approach is it seems to be finding plenty of value horse in that range, that beat SP , and given your historical results may be profitable to SP still.
        As I said in my reply to Ken that 3/1 cut off is something I need to look at, and at some point in m
        May I’ll trawl through the s3a /s3a# as I suspect leaving all those under 3s on morning odds could improve things for next winter jumps season. Makes sense that horse’s that short the bookies may have priced up more correctly and there is much less room for manoeuvre , price wise. Plenty to ponder anyway. And all of our approaches on here can always be improved. and looks like Ken’s superb recording efforts have found an easy way to improve yours without changing the selection method.

        1. Hi Josh
          very well put and yes one item i certainly do stand by is that my bets have always gone on between 10 and 10.30 when the markets have settled and many N/R have been announced, and the majority are able to achieve the price which is quoted, not the fantasy night before prices, where you would find it impossible to place £100 on the selection.
          I know that there are many small punters out there but i have always set out my stall to be honest and above board to all punters, and yes i could claim outrageous night before prices and probably have another 30/40% on the figures but that is not me.
          Have seen over the years the tricks and antics tipsters do to inflated their figures for marketing purposes.
          When had my tipping lines all i had to do was email the bets to them and they did all the marketing and putting the bets on the computer which suited me fine.
          Ken who i knew was recording my bets for which you and myself have had our eyes opened and a big thank you.
          Colin.

        2. For those of us without access to bookie accounts the shorter prices on the machine are also much tighter to SP. Can usually beat SP by a point or 3 when moving up the odds range but not with the shorties.
          Mike

  3. Tips – 4.05 MR, Ballyvic Boru, 1 point each way, 16/1 now. A front runner who seems to stay this distance. Brian Ellison puts up Danny Cook. I do fear Earlofthecotswolds off top weight but at the price I will have a go on Ballyvic Boru.

    7.15 KP, Dono Di Dio, 1 point each way, 8/1 now. Drops back in distance after a run of seconditis. Only a four year old and so room for improvement and with a 7LB claimer on board taking weight off. Some course form from the trainer.

    System selections:
    Emma Lavelle handicappers 5/1 + – 4.05 MR, The Sweeney, 1 point each way, 8/1 now.
    Karl Burke at Southwell – 4.55 Southwell, Baron Run, 1 point each way, 9/1 now.

  4. COLINS BETS
    Winner 6/4 stayed 6/4
    2nd 13/2 to 9/2
    unplaced 9/2 to 9/4
    unplaced 5/2 to 2/1
    most of my bets are normally well backed, anyway decision day later.

      1. They are fascinating results. It makes perfect logical sense why value would be non existent at the top end, under 3/1.
        Colin you should be proud of those profit figures in Ken’s 3/1-12/1 range, with some freedom for those a bit higher, for Colin’s Bets.

        82 points at early odds/bog (and you’re posting on day most of time, not snaffling unobtainable stand out evening odds) from July to End March 19 is very solid, at a 24% ROI.
        Leaving those under 3s maybe the way forward and just backing those in said price range at time of posting.

        As looks like those under 3s run at a hefty enough loss and even if best case was wiping their face, it’s an awful lot of bets that can be removed. Whatever your approach is it seems to be finding plenty of value horse in that range, that beat SP , and given your historical results may be profitable to SP still.
        As I said in my reply to Ken that 3/1 cut off is something I need to look at, and at some point in m
        May I’ll trawl through the s3a /s3a# as I suspect leaving all those under 3s on morning odds could improve things for next winter jumps season. Makes sense that horse’s that short the bookies may have priced up more correctly and there is much less room for manoeuvre , price wise. Plenty to ponder anyway. And all of our approaches on here can always be improved. and looks like Ken’s superb recording efforts have found an easy way to improve yours without changing the selection method.

        1. For those of us without access to bookie accounts the shorter prices on the machine are also much tighter to SP. Can usually beat SP by a point or 3 when moving up the odds range but not with the shorties.
          Mike

        2. Hi Josh
          very well put and yes one item i certainly do stand by is that my bets have always gone on between 10 and 10.30 when the markets have settled and many N/R have been announced, and the majority are able to achieve the price which is quoted, not the fantasy night before prices, where you would find it impossible to place £100 on the selection.
          I know that there are many small punters out there but i have always set out my stall to be honest and above board to all punters, and yes i could claim outrageous night before prices and probably have another 30/40% on the figures but that is not me.
          Have seen over the years the tricks and antics tipsters do to inflated their figures for marketing purposes.
          When had my tipping lines all i had to do was email the bets to them and they did all the marketing and putting the bets on the computer which suited me fine.
          Ken who i knew was recording my bets for which you and myself have had our eyes opened and a big thank you.
          Colin.

  5. today’s selections.
    Wincanton.
    2-10. Tempuran 12-1 1/2 pt ew
    3-45. Wizards Bridge 6-1 1/2 pt win
    4-15. Sprogzilla 12-1 1/4 pt ew
    Market Rasen.
    2-00. Bowie 12-1 1/4 pt ew
    4-05. Johnbb 5-1 1/2 pt win

  6. today’s selections.
    Wincanton.
    2-10. Tempuran 12-1 1/2 pt ew
    3-45. Wizards Bridge 6-1 1/2 pt win
    4-15. Sprogzilla 12-1 1/4 pt ew
    Market Rasen.
    2-00. Bowie 12-1 1/4 pt ew
    4-05. Johnbb 5-1 1/2 pt win

  7. hi, if following the S3A # for jumps there is no bets today correct? only S3A? thanks (still trying to get my head around the bets)

    1. yep jumps is S3A# (none of those today), and S1 (Big Penny Quals as an S1 as per Section 1), tracking W2 closely given the results detailed in section 4 above.

      No flat racing today, but for Flat i advise S6

      Josh

      1. Am I to assume from that response Josh that a horse that has both S1 AND S2 is thus not an S1 qualifier? As I have been following any jumps horse with S1 next to it such as Big Penny in the 3.45 today

        I thought I had got this figured out!!!

        1. SORRY! IGNORE THAT PREVIOUS COMMENT!

          I’m clearly not awake haha –

          Big Penny is an S1 as per the S1 next to it’s name…

          All ‘S’ symbols to be treated independently.

          Apols for that.

          Josh

  8. COLINS BETS
    Southwell
    4.55 Mama Africa BOG 7/2
    4.55 Majestic Moon BOG 9/1
    5.25 Port Soif BOG 7/2
    ELITE BETS
    2.00 Market rasen Murchison River BOG 6/1
    4.15 Wincanton Chivers BOG 11/4
    NEW METHOD
    2.00 M/R Eolian BOG 5/2
    6.15 Kempton Scorched Breath BOG 6/1
    7.15 Dono Di Dio BOG 10/1
    8.15 Optima Petamus BOG 11/2
    Colin

  9. I have just been on oddschecker going through the Aintree races prices that are up on the site. The bookies do not seem to be very generous so far. I guess they are going to offer enhanced places on certain races on the day and keep the prices available down? The Grand National is an exception as they will inflate prices on the morning and then reduce them come mid morning.
    I am still restricted apart from Bet365, Bet Victor and Start Sports and so will scour the exchanges for win bets.

  10. On my mates the bookmakers heard about this yesterday, reading todays Daily Mail page 27, they are at it again PP and BetFred introduced new crack game where the punter can lose £500 every two minutes.
    Read the article only way to stop these is to revoke their licence to trade and the others would soon toe the line, too simple.
    Angry Colin

    1. Hi Colin,

      What medium is this trough? Given the crackdown and £2 in the High Street Bookies, i assume its online ?

      1. According to the article they have found a loophole in the regulations and exploiting to the max
        Responsible gambling they cry total bull——
        Colin

  11. Shout out to George B – good results last night, International Law did us both a favour.

    Haven’t got much for Southwell but some potential for Kempton tonite. I won’t be posting these till after 3.30 as off to do the big fortnightly shop soon 🙁

    At Southwell trainers are keen on Rock of Estonia in the 2.55 and Motajassid in the 4.55. I think Gang Warfare is of EW interest in the 4.55 too. Good trainer/jock stats but looks a competitive race stuffed with refugees from the jumps.

    Anyhoo

  12. Fat Fingers hit post before ending lol.

    Meant to say anyhoo, post any lists for tonite as and when you can, catch you later alligator.

    VP MC SBC

  13. Lambourn Trainers
    2.55 Southwell Rock Of Estonia BOG 5/1 CH could be well HC
    4.55 ” Motajaasid BOG 9/2 RH would write off his last run, good chance today
    3.05 M/R Zen Master BOG 8/1 CM EW chance won here before
    5.10 Kempton Miss Enigma BOG 12/1 RH fair better in HC company with blinkers on 1st time
    just one winner will do me
    Colin

  14. hi, if following the S3A # for jumps there is no bets today correct? only S3A? thanks (still trying to get my head around the bets)

    1. yep jumps is S3A# (none of those today), and S1 (Big Penny Quals as an S1 as per Section 1), tracking W2 closely given the results detailed in section 4 above.

      No flat racing today, but for Flat i advise S6

      Josh

      1. Am I to assume from that response Josh that a horse that has both S1 AND S2 is thus not an S1 qualifier? As I have been following any jumps horse with S1 next to it such as Big Penny in the 3.45 today

        I thought I had got this figured out!!!

        1. SORRY! IGNORE THAT PREVIOUS COMMENT!

          I’m clearly not awake haha –

          Big Penny is an S1 as per the S1 next to it’s name…

          All ‘S’ symbols to be treated independently.

          Apols for that.

          Josh

  15. COLINS BETS
    Southwell
    4.55 Mama Africa BOG 7/2
    4.55 Majestic Moon BOG 9/1
    5.25 Port Soif BOG 7/2
    ELITE BETS
    2.00 Market rasen Murchison River BOG 6/1
    4.15 Wincanton Chivers BOG 11/4
    NEW METHOD
    2.00 M/R Eolian BOG 5/2
    6.15 Kempton Scorched Breath BOG 6/1
    7.15 Dono Di Dio BOG 10/1
    8.15 Optima Petamus BOG 11/2
    Colin

  16. I have just been on oddschecker going through the Aintree races prices that are up on the site. The bookies do not seem to be very generous so far. I guess they are going to offer enhanced places on certain races on the day and keep the prices available down? The Grand National is an exception as they will inflate prices on the morning and then reduce them come mid morning.
    I am still restricted apart from Bet365, Bet Victor and Start Sports and so will scour the exchanges for win bets.

  17. A TOUCH OF CLASS
    ( a Silly Boys Club production )

    There seems to be a lot of interest lately in class droppers so I thought I’d post a few points on the topic. I’ll stick to the All Weather but the principles are generally the same for all codes. One only has to see that with about 18 h’cap qualifiers on the AW alone today, blanket betting is out of the question. Just a quick word about selecting bets within an odds range. I feel odds are only a perception with too many variable circumstances and using them for certain ranges shows yet again our need to box things neatly for our logical brain. Rather than a long winded explanation from me it would be better to google “horse racing class chart” which shows that in each class there is two grades, this is very important to remember.

    My opinion is there are two types of horse in this, one a class mover and the other, a class dropper. A class mover to me is a horse who’s rating enables it to move between classes EG: One rated 76-80 would not only qualify for class 3 races but both class 4 races and all trainers use this not so much as an advantage but a way of having options involving, going, trip, travel etc. Clearly when weighing up the merits of these horses it can be seen that their chances of winning involve more than just a class drop. On many occasions a horse could actually be dropping into a more competitive race regardless of class and only a perusal of the form will show it. ( here again geegeez instant expert shows this immediately) Whatever the situation, a thorough read of the formbook is required.

    The other horse, the class dropper has a totally different profile in that not only does a drop in rating allow it into a lower class but restricts it running in the higher ones. Firstly I’d say trainers are generally wary of letting their horses slide into lower classes, especially classes 2 & 3 because of the better prize money available ( running on wrong going could let a horse drop hence more non runners in higher classes) Secondly a drop in rating has to be done by the handicapper and make no mistake, nobody is more aware of the consequences of certain drops, which are not done lightly. Invariably a drop in class rating means a loss of form/ age regression or just plain bad luck ( although the handicapper is no mug in this scenario) it’s last 5,6 race draws would give an indication. Running over different distances can be a sign of desperation rather than skullduggery and I would note the trainer more than the horse. A good recent but difficult to unearth example was GOSSIPING who the handicapper finally relented in lowering him enough to enter class 5. Bet from 10s to 13/8 the rest is history.

    While I do look at every drop (easy thanks to geegeez) I feel the theory is given far too much kudos and is certainly not as easy to maneuver as some would think. Personally I think searching for improvers is an easier proposition. With eyes everywhere nowadays trainers have been forced to turn their skills from blunt skullduggery to sharp innovative ways of getting a horse well handicapped. Saturdays winner AUXERRE was a fine example of legally getting horses handicapped on the All weather before going onto the Turf a stone better off. A horse going into a H’cap after 3 runs with another stable is another ploy. The new trainer just shrugs his shoulders and shows the sales receipt when the stewards ask for an explanation while the old trainer praises the training prowess of the new one. Trainers not only in Ireland now make a living on passing on exposed (unexposed) horses so much so that the h’capper is putting them up 10 lb before they run.

    Like everything else in betting horses, class is just part of the jigsaw and sadly it’s not one of those 6 piece jigsaws 5 year olds get for Xmas. I fully understand people looking for easy tricks, I spent most of my life looking for the very same ones but alas it’s fools gold which are used so expertly by spivs and tipping merchants ( stay safe smiley)

    1. I look for class droppers but only after they have demonstrated their ability in that particular class, i.e. a horse wins a cl4 hcp, it then runs in a cl3 but is out the places or even places, connections then run it in cl2 hcps and after a string of lacklustre efforts its hcp mark starts to drop (all planned of course b/c trainer & owners know it’s cl4/3 horse). The horse may run again in cl3s and cl4s afterwards as its OR is dropping but still its OR maybe too high
      Horse finally gets its conditions again and its OR has dropped sufficiently to be competitive in its grade its won in before.
      I followed just this route in selecting Right Action to win at Doncaster on Sunday.
      Won off OR82 March 2018…eleven runs later it’s back to OR81 & wins again.
      Every animal has a ceiling to its ability

      1. 100% agree with your strategy Andy, it’s the only way to assess them. It’s just a matter then of other conditions being right.

    2. Good stuff Chubnut and Andy G has a valid point regarding every horse has a ceiling in ability…just as dropping horses in weight will not make them run faster if the ability is not there in the first instance, so each horse has a class ceiling and will not be win if it is entered in a higher class than its ability to win in such. Many factors involved, as you point out, and if a horse has its conditions to win again, be it in class( up or down), a drop in weights or has demonstrated it is progressive and can handle a weight increase, or going up in class with going and distance same as last win then it is a logical selection. No doubt the debate will continue and Andy G’s point is a sensible way forward in selection potential winners as are your well reasoned arguments.

  18. On my mates the bookmakers heard about this yesterday, reading todays Daily Mail page 27, they are at it again PP and BetFred introduced new crack game where the punter can lose £500 every two minutes.
    Read the article only way to stop these is to revoke their licence to trade and the others would soon toe the line, too simple.
    Angry Colin

    1. Hi Colin,

      What medium is this trough? Given the crackdown and £2 in the High Street Bookies, i assume its online ?

      1. According to the article they have found a loophole in the regulations and exploiting to the max
        Responsible gambling they cry total bull——
        Colin

  19. Shout out to George B – good results last night, International Law did us both a favour.

    Haven’t got much for Southwell but some potential for Kempton tonite. I won’t be posting these till after 3.30 as off to do the big fortnightly shop soon 🙁

    At Southwell trainers are keen on Rock of Estonia in the 2.55 and Motajassid in the 4.55. I think Gang Warfare is of EW interest in the 4.55 too. Good trainer/jock stats but looks a competitive race stuffed with refugees from the jumps.

    Anyhoo

    1. indeed smashed into international law last night ( there was no mention of it on rp text until it suddenly said it swept passed and gone on in the last furlong ..???? 🙂 happy days 🙂 )
      Yep catch later top pundit mc 😉 happy shopping( i have trained the m.i.l. to do it with the wife boss instead 😉 )
      i am your polar opposite got too many for southwell and not enough for
      kempton 🙁
      did have 2 qualifiers for the sbc system at kempton .. but not in the right class or distance ?
      catch ya laterz
      gl/gb 😉
      a more reserved reigned in gb today .. we hope 😉

  20. Fat Fingers hit post before ending lol.

    Meant to say anyhoo, post any lists for tonite as and when you can, catch you later alligator.

    VP MC SBC

  21. Lambourn Trainers
    2.55 Southwell Rock Of Estonia BOG 5/1 CH could be well HC
    4.55 ” Motajaasid BOG 9/2 RH would write off his last run, good chance today
    3.05 M/R Zen Master BOG 8/1 CM EW chance won here before
    5.10 Kempton Miss Enigma BOG 12/1 RH fair better in HC company with blinkers on 1st time
    just one winner will do me
    Colin

  22. SBC UPDATE

    6.15 Kempton: the MJ trained favourite is up 5lbs for a neck success which equals vulnerable in my eyes (naturally it will win like Shergar now 🙂 ). I like Scorched Breath as an alternative. He is well drawn, has course form and much more unexposed than the favourite. As ever, fitness must be taken on trust but at 5/1 for four places with B365 I’m in. For George B place betting fun I suggest John Betjamin and Gold at Midnight. The former has been gelded since last season and wears a first time hood, while the latter has course form and has been dropped 3lbs. Overpriced at 22/1 and 28/1 respectively.

    7.15 I like two with good T/J stats, my weakness as you know. Magic Mirror (50% win/66% place at track over five years) and Voi (50/83 over one year) have interconnected form lines and fancy them both EW.

    VP GB, let me know what the electronic winner finding machine says for tonite, good luck if you’re having a crack.

    1. It was my way in on magic mirror but it also hit top score on my pace/speed home brewed system I use. So it’ll probably finish second as the system as of late has an uncanny knack of finding second places. I’ve already had 2 today and 3 yesterday.

        1. HELLO CHAPS 🙂
          had a good day again ……. lot of my places came in and 1 winner i tink .. betfair balance is higher now than after i had placed all my bets earlier anyway 🙂
          just looking at kempton now 🙂
          gl/gb 🙂
          some great e/w given out by team sbc so far … excellento !

  23. THE SBC ALL WEATHER HANDICAPPING USUAL SUSPECTS
    5.45 Kempton 1 Gregorian Girl
    5.45 Kempton 2 Nefyn Beach (IRE)
    BUT BOTH NOT SHOWING AS RIGHT CLASS MONTH OR DISTANCE ??

    My Systems (V4) (45) KEMPTON PARK ALL WEATHER POLY N CERTAINTIES 6.15 Kempton 13 Broughtons Flare (IRE)
    EXCELLENT E/W CHANCE
    My Systems (V4) (45) KEMPTON PARK ALL WEATHER POLY N CERTAINTIES 6.15 Kempton 4 Regular
    SYSTEM SAYS YES
    My Systems (V4) (56) THE DOYLERS ON THE GAME
    6.15 Kempton 4 Regular
    SYSTEM SAYS NO ???????? I AMN AS CONFUSED YOU ARE ..LOL 🙂

    My Systems (V4) (45) KEMPTON PARK ALL WEATHER POLY N CERTAINTIES 6.15 Kempton 6 Scorched Breath
    EXCELLENT E/W CHANCE
    My Systems (V4) (24) AW TIFS N JIFS NON HCP MONTHLY CLASS PURPLE PATCH 6.45 Kempton 8 Ocala
    TOO SHORT NO VALUE FOR ME ????????????
    My Systems (V4) (56) THE DOYLERS ON THE GAME
    7.15 Kempton 4 Rashdan (FR)
    NOT RIGHT CLASS RACE ETC AND DRAW … NO BET FOR ME ??????
    My Systems (V4) (20) AW TIFS N JIFS NON HCP MONTHLY CLASS PURPLE PATCH
    7.45 Kempton 2 Cash N Carrie (IRE)
    NOT A GREAT DRAW ????????

    thats all i have folks 🙂
    gb 🙂

    1. Great work G, relieved you’ve got Scorched Breath on the list, could be today’s International Law, Colin has picked it too! Would have liked to see Voi churned out but you can’t have everything!

      Good Luck mi amigo 🙂

  24. gutted i put you off gregorian girl ( probably) … i did do it .. but only because i had a few quid over today .. it was on our trainer jockey class / track system .. but didn’t totally hit all qualifiers .. but the bugger still went in .. soz 🙁 .. there be plenty more don’t worry 😉
    gb 🙂

  25. Oh yeah don’t worry about me missing some of your winners, you back enough of my losers, thus the universe is in balance 🙂

  26. A TOUCH OF CLASS
    ( a Silly Boys Club production )

    There seems to be a lot of interest lately in class droppers so I thought I’d post a few points on the topic. I’ll stick to the All Weather but the principles are generally the same for all codes. One only has to see that with about 18 h’cap qualifiers on the AW alone today, blanket betting is out of the question. Just a quick word about selecting bets within an odds range. I feel odds are only a perception with too many variable circumstances and using them for certain ranges shows yet again our need to box things neatly for our logical brain. Rather than a long winded explanation from me it would be better to google “horse racing class chart” which shows that in each class there is two grades, this is very important to remember.

    My opinion is there are two types of horse in this, one a class mover and the other, a class dropper. A class mover to me is a horse who’s rating enables it to move between classes EG: One rated 76-80 would not only qualify for class 3 races but both class 4 races and all trainers use this not so much as an advantage but a way of having options involving, going, trip, travel etc. Clearly when weighing up the merits of these horses it can be seen that their chances of winning involve more than just a class drop. On many occasions a horse could actually be dropping into a more competitive race regardless of class and only a perusal of the form will show it. ( here again geegeez instant expert shows this immediately) Whatever the situation, a thorough read of the formbook is required.

    The other horse, the class dropper has a totally different profile in that not only does a drop in rating allow it into a lower class but restricts it running in the higher ones. Firstly I’d say trainers are generally wary of letting their horses slide into lower classes, especially classes 2 & 3 because of the better prize money available ( running on wrong going could let a horse drop hence more non runners in higher classes) Secondly a drop in rating has to be done by the handicapper and make no mistake, nobody is more aware of the consequences of certain drops, which are not done lightly. Invariably a drop in class rating means a loss of form/ age regression or just plain bad luck ( although the handicapper is no mug in this scenario) it’s last 5,6 race draws would give an indication. Running over different distances can be a sign of desperation rather than skullduggery and I would note the trainer more than the horse. A good recent but difficult to unearth example was GOSSIPING who the handicapper finally relented in lowering him enough to enter class 5. Bet from 10s to 13/8 the rest is history.

    While I do look at every drop (easy thanks to geegeez) I feel the theory is given far too much kudos and is certainly not as easy to maneuver as some would think. Personally I think searching for improvers is an easier proposition. With eyes everywhere nowadays trainers have been forced to turn their skills from blunt skullduggery to sharp innovative ways of getting a horse well handicapped. Saturdays winner AUXERRE was a fine example of legally getting horses handicapped on the All weather before going onto the Turf a stone better off. A horse going into a H’cap after 3 runs with another stable is another ploy. The new trainer just shrugs his shoulders and shows the sales receipt when the stewards ask for an explanation while the old trainer praises the training prowess of the new one. Trainers not only in Ireland now make a living on passing on exposed (unexposed) horses so much so that the h’capper is putting them up 10 lb before they run.

    Like everything else in betting horses, class is just part of the jigsaw and sadly it’s not one of those 6 piece jigsaws 5 year olds get for Xmas. I fully understand people looking for easy tricks, I spent most of my life looking for the very same ones but alas it’s fools gold which are used so expertly by spivs and tipping merchants ( stay safe smiley)

    1. I look for class droppers but only after they have demonstrated their ability in that particular class, i.e. a horse wins a cl4 hcp, it then runs in a cl3 but is out the places or even places, connections then run it in cl2 hcps and after a string of lacklustre efforts its hcp mark starts to drop (all planned of course b/c trainer & owners know it’s cl4/3 horse). The horse may run again in cl3s and cl4s afterwards as its OR is dropping but still its OR maybe too high
      Horse finally gets its conditions again and its OR has dropped sufficiently to be competitive in its grade its won in before.
      I followed just this route in selecting Right Action to win at Doncaster on Sunday.
      Won off OR82 March 2018…eleven runs later it’s back to OR81 & wins again.
      Every animal has a ceiling to its ability

      1. 100% agree with your strategy Andy, it’s the only way to assess them. It’s just a matter then of other conditions being right.

    2. Good stuff Chubnut and Andy G has a valid point regarding every horse has a ceiling in ability…just as dropping horses in weight will not make them run faster if the ability is not there in the first instance, so each horse has a class ceiling and will not be win if it is entered in a higher class than its ability to win in such. Many factors involved, as you point out, and if a horse has its conditions to win again, be it in class( up or down), a drop in weights or has demonstrated it is progressive and can handle a weight increase, or going up in class with going and distance same as last win then it is a logical selection. No doubt the debate will continue and Andy G’s point is a sensible way forward in selection potential winners as are your well reasoned arguments.

      1. Chubnut, if you carry on talking sense we will have no alternative to ejecting you from the SBC 🙂

  27. SBC UPDATE

    6.15 Kempton: the MJ trained favourite is up 5lbs for a neck success which equals vulnerable in my eyes (naturally it will win like Shergar now 🙂 ). I like Scorched Breath as an alternative. He is well drawn, has course form and much more unexposed than the favourite. As ever, fitness must be taken on trust but at 5/1 for four places with B365 I’m in. For George B place betting fun I suggest John Betjamin and Gold at Midnight. The former has been gelded since last season and wears a first time hood, while the latter has course form and has been dropped 3lbs. Overpriced at 22/1 and 28/1 respectively.

    7.15 I like two with good T/J stats, my weakness as you know. Magic Mirror (50% win/66% place at track over five years) and Voi (50/83 over one year) have interconnected form lines and fancy them both EW.

    VP GB, let me know what the electronic winner finding machine says for tonite, good luck if you’re having a crack.

    1. It was my way in on magic mirror but it also hit top score on my pace/speed home brewed system I use. So it’ll probably finish second as the system as of late has an uncanny knack of finding second places. I’ve already had 2 today and 3 yesterday.

        1. HELLO CHAPS 🙂
          had a good day again ……. lot of my places came in and 1 winner i tink .. betfair balance is higher now than after i had placed all my bets earlier anyway 🙂
          just looking at kempton now 🙂
          gl/gb 🙂
          some great e/w given out by team sbc so far … excellento !

  28. THE SBC ALL WEATHER HANDICAPPING USUAL SUSPECTS
    5.45 Kempton 1 Gregorian Girl
    5.45 Kempton 2 Nefyn Beach (IRE)
    BUT BOTH NOT SHOWING AS RIGHT CLASS MONTH OR DISTANCE ??

    My Systems (V4) (45) KEMPTON PARK ALL WEATHER POLY N CERTAINTIES 6.15 Kempton 13 Broughtons Flare (IRE)
    EXCELLENT E/W CHANCE
    My Systems (V4) (45) KEMPTON PARK ALL WEATHER POLY N CERTAINTIES 6.15 Kempton 4 Regular
    SYSTEM SAYS YES
    My Systems (V4) (56) THE DOYLERS ON THE GAME
    6.15 Kempton 4 Regular
    SYSTEM SAYS NO ???????? I AMN AS CONFUSED YOU ARE ..LOL 🙂

    My Systems (V4) (45) KEMPTON PARK ALL WEATHER POLY N CERTAINTIES 6.15 Kempton 6 Scorched Breath
    EXCELLENT E/W CHANCE
    My Systems (V4) (24) AW TIFS N JIFS NON HCP MONTHLY CLASS PURPLE PATCH 6.45 Kempton 8 Ocala
    TOO SHORT NO VALUE FOR ME ????????????
    My Systems (V4) (56) THE DOYLERS ON THE GAME
    7.15 Kempton 4 Rashdan (FR)
    NOT RIGHT CLASS RACE ETC AND DRAW … NO BET FOR ME ??????
    My Systems (V4) (20) AW TIFS N JIFS NON HCP MONTHLY CLASS PURPLE PATCH
    7.45 Kempton 2 Cash N Carrie (IRE)
    NOT A GREAT DRAW ????????

    thats all i have folks 🙂
    gb 🙂

    1. Great work G, relieved you’ve got Scorched Breath on the list, could be today’s International Law, Colin has picked it too! Would have liked to see Voi churned out but you can’t have everything!

      Good Luck mi amigo 🙂

  29. gutted i put you off gregorian girl ( probably) … i did do it .. but only because i had a few quid over today .. it was on our trainer jockey class / track system .. but didn’t totally hit all qualifiers .. but the bugger still went in .. soz 🙁 .. there be plenty more don’t worry 😉
    gb 🙂

  30. Oh yeah don’t worry about me missing some of your winners, you back enough of my losers, thus the universe is in balance 🙂

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