Members Daily Post: 02/04/19 (complete)

Section 1 (complete), test zone, important updates

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Please NOTE that these are FLAT qualifiers, and the strategy codes are different from the Jumps. Flat S6 is ‘the’ strategy to follow on the flat imo, further details in section 4 below. 

Musselburgh

2.45 – Pammi   (micro -class) 6/1  2nd 

5.15 –

Our Place In Loule   (m dist)  w1  w2 H1 2/1  WON 2/1>5/1 

Lord of the Glen   (m -class) (R1 T1)  I1 G1 15/2 S1 S6 UP

Astraea   (4yo+)  ES+ I3 8/1 S3A UP

Foxy Boy   (m dist) G3 7/1 UP

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NOTE: R1 + T1 We all have free access to top level, in race-card, Racing Post Ratings and Top Speed Ratings I think, but what with the addition of them into Geegeez, it makes it a bit easier to use… you can see in brackets next to Lord of The Glen that i’m experimenting with just detailing those that are top rated – either top rated RPR (R1) or top rated TS (T1). At this stage you can use that as added information – it may be that they get incorporated into the current Flat S6, but time will tell. I like to test a few things in live play, as it’s important to be trying to improve any systematic approaches etc. I always thought top-level RPR and TS are more likely to be considered in the odds etc, eroding value, given how widely available they are, but I could be wrong. 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: +0.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 3/52,16p, -23, 2019 Flat TEST 0/1,0p, -2)

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No Tips on Tuesday.

There will be plenty of action at Aintree with any luck. Last year wasn’t too bad, the official tips pulling in +30 points, from 6 races covered. I intend to attack all 7 handicaps, and maybe the odd other race, we shall see. It would be nice to repeat or better that haul and i’ll be trying my best to do so. This year’s jumps big race tipping pile could do with it! There’s Punchy and Galway also.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

I’ll try and come up with a focused ‘flat portfolio’ in which to track/use as starting points, but that most likely won’t be until the start of May.

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

IMPORTANT!

Section 1: Advised Strategies 2019 : READ HERE>>>

I’m busy updating results etc but have tidied up the above document, incorporating the Flat.

Flat S6 is ‘the’ strategy there, along with jumps S1 and S3A#. In 2018 they collectively pulled in +225 points in live play. Jumps S1/S3A# have been treading water so far in 2019, but 9 months to go for those to pick up!

Please read the document above, even if an old hand. A refresher is never a bad thing 🙂

If it doesn’t mean anything, just wait as always until around 8am on the day of racing when I add those black symbols next to relevant qualifiers!

 

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I will pull together a ‘next best’ document of other strategies you could consider, with results updated, including Jumps S2A, S3A and W1/W2. And Flat S1 and S4

Since the start of 2018, Jumps W2 (horse won two starts back, denoted by w2 ) are, as of end of March> 

167 bets / 52 wins / 99 places (inc wins) / +61.76 points (early odds, 8am on day)

They are starting to look more solid. It may make logical sense why the w1 (won LTO) offer little value, and for why w2 may do well, given the horse could still be in form/well handicapped, may have been unlucky LTO (may have won LTO also) etc, and the trainer is running them at a track they do well at (hence why in section 1 in first place) Anyway, absorb those as you please. I may let them run for a few more months before nailing my flag to the mast. In any case, those w2 qualifiers are another good ‘starting point’ that makes logical sense.

The Flat…

S6 is the main strategy to follow, based on evidence in live play over two full years. It looks to be a solid 50-80 points per year strategy that can be backed to BFSP. Fingers crossed it can perform as it did last year. It did drop off in Oct/November and that may be something to consider next Autumn, depending on how it’s performed.

Flat S1 and S4 – i’m not sure they are worth following in truth, but certainly their return has been better than the bank – if not a bit underwhelming.

In 2018 those two combined, inc multiple qualifiers, were… 269 bets / 63 wins / 125 places (inc wins) / +22.25 points. It’s a bit of a boring approach to follow really, and may well depend on the odd biggie making or breaking a season.

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YOUR Results Update’s Please 🙂 

Those of you who post regularly, or who we could describe as posting tips… can you give us an update for March and 2019 to date / and since posting if you would like. As a minimum this is simply to advised prices/prices that you get 🙂 The purpose is simply to allow us all to judge who we may back in time systematically, rather than say dipping in and out etc.

Nick Mazur

March… +31.6 points as advised (31% ROI)

2019 to date… + 30.13 points as advised, (2018 +534),  +1.42 BFSP

 

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Tipping Competition… it’s back for April, hopefully you can see the post where you can comment away. Same rules as Feb with a £50 cash prize to the winner. And the possibility of the odd discrationary cash prize for those who add to the community vibe etc. 

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Aintree Grand National 2019 Stats Pack: Complete… READ HERE>>>

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

124 Responses

  1. Tips _ A good start to April with a 14/1 winner and a loser on Monday. On Tuesday:

    3.15 Musselburgh, Tanasoq, 16/1 about now, 1 point each way, This horse disappointed mostly last season but before that had some winning form. So if the break has done him any good he may go off here at some value.
    4.00 Lingfield, Tan, a bit of 14/1 about now, a course and distance winner who should get an uncontested lead here.

    Good luck.

  2. I had a look at the 2.15 from Musselburgh and think that the market is about right. The main reservation about the favourite Alminoor would be that Sheikh Hamdan does not like his debutants pushed too hard. Both Baileys Freedom by Muharaar and War Of Clans by Ivawood look worthy adversaries from totally credible trainers for early season wins. Impossible to pick.
    Hugh

  3. MARCH RESULTS
    20win/99bets -5.25BFSP -5.31ROI

    YTD
    37wins/170bets +72.14BFSP 42.43ROI

    only been recording my results since feb when the tipping comp started.
    march selections were posted on the main page as there wasnt a full tipping comp.
    my selections will be posted on the tipping comp page in april. (i dont feel my results merit going onto the main page in future)
    pretty much all my selections are based on my pace/speed strategy i use.
    it may need a few tweaks here and there but im convinced over time it will do ok.

    dont know how many of noticed (Given results not many)
    ive been posting a selection in the most valuable race of the day over on the free page.

    for march it ended up 6wins/29bets -3.07

    it may seem an odd thing to do but im doing it to help me understand reading form better. everyday you get a different set of parameters it could be one day a 6f sprint on the all weather and the next day a 3m slog over fences.
    you dont get to pick and choose thats the puzzle for the day.
    as you can see from the results above probably not best to follow.
    but hopefully in time i may get better.

  4. today’s selections.
    Musselburgh.
    2-45. Pammi 15-2
    3-15. Tanasoq 16-1
    4-15. Navajo Star 20-1
    5-15. Lord Of The Glen 8-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

  5. Tips _ A good start to April with a 14/1 winner and a loser on Monday. On Tuesday:

    3.15 Musselburgh, Tanasoq, 16/1 about now, 1 point each way, This horse disappointed mostly last season but before that had some winning form. So if the break has done him any good he may go off here at some value.
    4.00 Lingfield, Tan, a bit of 14/1 about now, a course and distance winner who should get an uncontested lead here.

    Good luck.

  6. I had a look at the 2.15 from Musselburgh and think that the market is about right. The main reservation about the favourite Alminoor would be that Sheikh Hamdan does not like his debutants pushed too hard. Both Baileys Freedom by Muharaar and War Of Clans by Ivawood look worthy adversaries from totally credible trainers for early season wins. Impossible to pick.
    Hugh

  7. MARCH RESULTS
    20win/99bets -5.25BFSP -5.31ROI

    YTD
    37wins/170bets +72.14BFSP 42.43ROI

    only been recording my results since feb when the tipping comp started.
    march selections were posted on the main page as there wasnt a full tipping comp.
    my selections will be posted on the tipping comp page in april. (i dont feel my results merit going onto the main page in future)
    pretty much all my selections are based on my pace/speed strategy i use.
    it may need a few tweaks here and there but im convinced over time it will do ok.

    dont know how many of noticed (Given results not many)
    ive been posting a selection in the most valuable race of the day over on the free page.

    for march it ended up 6wins/29bets -3.07

    it may seem an odd thing to do but im doing it to help me understand reading form better. everyday you get a different set of parameters it could be one day a 6f sprint on the all weather and the next day a 3m slog over fences.
    you dont get to pick and choose thats the puzzle for the day.
    as you can see from the results above probably not best to follow.
    but hopefully in time i may get better.

    1. Morning Warren 🙂

      Yep good stuff .. i have been following your methodology since you joined … and i don’t know if i was just lucky .. but whenever i have placed money on one of your selections .. then i have done alright 🙂 ( especially crossfire on the sand during cheltenham week ) … so thank you and keep on going and keep on posting very interesting and profitable to me anyhow ( thumbs up smiley)
      If you don’t watch it you will be getting a ” Silly Boys Club ” application in the post 🙂 )

      gl/gb

      1. Hi George.

        Many thanks for your kind words.
        You’ve not done to shabby yourself and neither have I off some of your selections.

          1. yep dot dot close brackets 2u n all Warren 😉 now sit back and think how you are going to spend all your winnings 🙂

            gl/gb 🙂

          2. I’m aiming for a Norwegian cruise. But may end a week on the grand union.
            Only time will tell 🙂

  8. today’s selections.
    Musselburgh.
    2-45. Pammi 15-2
    3-15. Tanasoq 16-1
    4-15. Navajo Star 20-1
    5-15. Lord Of The Glen 8-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

  9. Hi, can anyone point me to a good excel spreadsheet for keeping records and tracking bets please? thanks

  10. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    M 5.15 – Jessie Allen on 4th run inc 2 x aw @ 25
    W 6.00 – Foxtrot Knight on 5th and 6th run @ 18
    GL

  11. S.B.C. EARLY MORNING BULLETIN : NOT TIPS …… JUST SYSTEM FIRST STAGE QUALIFIERS FOR TODAY :

    (56) FLAT NON HANDICAPPED CLASS TWO DROP OUTS
    3.15 Musselburgh 1 El Astronaute (IRE)

    (66) THE SBC ALL WEATHER HANDICAPPERS USUAL SUSPECTS
    4.00 Lingfield 2 Red Alert

    (45) FLAT ONE MAN AND HIS HORSE WENT RACING ALONE
    4.15 Musselburgh 4 Navajo Star (IRE)

    (53) FLAT HANDICAPPED CLASS FIVE DROP OUTS
    4.45 Musselburgh 7 City Tour

    (53) FLAT HANDICAPPED CLASS FIVE DROP OUTS
    4.45 Musselburgh 1 Silver Dust (IRE)

    (32) WOLVERHAMPTON REAL TAPPAS N HANDICAPPERS CLUB TEAM
    5.25 Wolverhampton 6 Pike Corner Cross (IRE)

    (32) WOLVERHAMPTON REAL TAPPAS N HANDICAPPERS CLUB TEAM
    6.00 Wolverhampton 10 Red Invader (IRE)

    (32) WOLVERHAMPTON REAL TAPPAS N HANDICAPPERS CLUB TEAM
    6.00 Wolverhampton 7 Tonis A Star

    (32) WOLVERHAMPTON REAL TAPPAS N HANDICAPPERS CLUB TEAM
    6.30 Wolverhampton 1 Redemptorist (IRE)

    (24) AW TIFS N JIFS NON HCP MONTHLY CLASS PURPLE PATCH
    7.00 Wolverhampton 1 Blood Eagle (IRE)

    (24) AW TIFS N JIFS NON HCP MONTHLY CLASS PURPLE PATCH
    7.00 Wolverhampton 2 Eagles By Day (IRE)

    (32) WOLVERHAMPTON REAL TAPPAS N HANDICAPPERS CLUB TEAM
    8.00 Wolverhampton 4 International Law

    Will all S.B.C. members report back with any agreements please 😉
    Have a good day ….. and above all keep safe out there !!
    b.rgds
    GB 😉
    p.s. i hope this bally well ” copy n paste ” is behaving did morning ……………….

    1. NOW STRIPPED AND BUFFED VERSION

      (56) FLAT NON HANDICAPPED CLASS TWO DROP OUTS
      3.15 Musselburgh 1 El Astronaute (IRE)
      NOT THE BEST OF DRAWS OVER 5F HERE …. NO BET FOR ME 🙁

      (66) THE SBC ALL WEATHER HANDICAPPERS USUAL SUSPECTS
      4.00 Lingfield 2 Red Alert
      SAD TO SAY BUT NOT THE RIGHT MONTH FOR PROFITS 🙁

      (45) FLAT ONE MAN AND HIS HORSE WENT RACING ALONE
      4.15 Musselburgh 4 Navajo Star (IRE)
      SYSTEM SAYS “YES” E/W (4TBP)

      (53) FLAT HANDICAPPED CLASS FIVE DROP OUTS
      4.45 Musselburgh 7 City Tour
      4.45 Musselburgh 1 Silver Dust (IRE)
      BOTH DRAWN OK..ISH 😉 ACCORDING TO SYSTEM ( SYSTEM DOES IMPROVE WITH 10 OR UNDER RUNNERS ??? )

      (32) WOLVERHAMPTON REAL TAPPAS N HANDICAPPERS CLUB TEAM
      5.25 Wolverhampton 6 Pike Corner Cross (IRE)
      NOT A GOOD MONTH FOR THIS SYSTEM 0/14 SO FAR 🙁

      (32) WOLVERHAMPTON REAL TAPPAS N HANDICAPPERS CLUB TEAM
      6.00 Wolverhampton 10 Red Invader (IRE)
      ALL GOOD E/W (4TBP) RUDE NOT TO ???

      (32) WOLVERHAMPTON REAL TAPPAS N HANDICAPPERS CLUB TEAM
      6.00 Wolverhampton 7 Tonis A Star
      ALL OK EXCEPT NOT QUITE AS “GOODA” DRAW AS RED INVADER

      (32) WOLVERHAMPTON REAL TAPPAS N HANDICAPPERS CLUB TEAM
      6.30 Wolverhampton 1 Redemptorist (IRE)
      ALL OK TO ME EXCEPT DRAW NOT BRILLIANT ..BUT JOCKEY MAY HAVE TIME TO ADJUST IN THIS DISTANCE OF RACE ???

      (32) WOLVERHAMPTON REAL TAPPAS N HANDICAPPERS CLUB TEAM
      8.00 Wolverhampton 4 International Law
      🙂 : ALL LOOKS GOOD TO ME E/W (4TBP) BET TO NOTHING ????

      (24) AW TIFS N JIFS NON HCP MONTHLY CLASS PURPLE PATCH
      7.00 Wolverhampton 1 Blood Eagle (IRE)
      7.00 Wolverhampton 2 Eagles By Day (IRE)
      CAUTION : SYSTEM SEEMS TO WORK BETTER AT LINGFIELD AND SOUTHWELL ? ?

      1. Hi G, thanks for buffed longlist!

        I take your point in the 5.25 but I do like the chances of Pike Corner Cross. Also right with you on Toni’s a Star and Red Invader in the 6.00.

        We differ in the 6.30, while I respect the chances of Redemptorist, I prefer the chances of Singing Sheriff and Spiritual Man e/w.

        I don’t play in races like the 7.00. However I’m in complete agreement with you in the 8.00 re International Law but must do Arlecchinos Leap in view of trainers comments as picked out by Colin.

        So we agree on a lot! Should I break open the MC Piggy Bank and shovel it on? Good luck mi amigo 🙂

        1. i don’t think the bookies will take any old pennys or farthing tho nowadays mc …. how long you had the piggy bank ???? lol ….. in for a penny …….. 🙂
          let’s keep chipping away at the bank of the bookies 🙂

          gl gb 🙂

  12. COLINS BETS
    Lingfield
    4.00 Global Tango BOG 6/4
    5.00 Make Good BOG 5/2
    Wolverhampton
    5.25 False Id BOG 13/2
    8.00 Dark Alliance BOG 9/2
    ELITE BETS
    2.00 Lingfield Shining BOG 11/1
    8.00 Wolverhampton Decoration Of War BOG 4/1
    NEW METHOD
    Musselburgh
    3.45 Love Dreams BOG 9/4
    Lingfield
    5.00 Make Good BOG 5/2
    Wolverhampton
    6.30 Arabic Culture BOG 5/2
    8.00 Dark Alliance BOG 9/2
    Colin

  13. Lord of the Glen has S1 and S6 next to the name, is this correct? or am i missing something..cheers

    1. Yep that’s correct – they are Flat qualifiers – the strategy codes are different (bar S3A/S3A#) from the Jumps qualifiers – treat them both as separate.
      Please read the ‘important’ note in section 4 above also.
      S1 on the Flat is any horse that is double (or treble) top rated. Results explained above also.
      S6 is any Flat horse that is top rated x1 or more (H1/I1/G1) and is 6/1+ on widely available morning odds I add at around 8am.
      From the existing flat strategies much of my hope rests on S6, as with any luck that will have another 50-80 points season, which would be nice.
      Josh

  14. Lambourn Trainers
    8.00 wolverhampton Arlecchino’s Leap BOG 9/1
    Mark Usher running over the RIGHT TRIP and he runs very well under Jason Watson, coming into himself now so he should have an EW chance.
    Missed two of Marks EW chances recently because looked at the races and decided in my opinion could not win sadly both did one at 7/1 the other cannot remember,so not looked into this one, will just back it win or lose.
    Charles Hills not come on the website with a review about his Lingfield runners yet, have to go out if anything will be up about 1.30.
    Colin

  15. Can I make a comment on the present state of tipping? I thought that members put forward their tips and that was that. But today we have George B with 12 “indications” and Mark Curtis with 7 “indications”. Now, are these tips and will be accounted for at the month’s end or just “indication2 from which bets will be extracted at a later time? Further when do these “indication” become full blown bets? Could we not have everybody just putting up their tips with or with a short explanation so that we all know where we are. I like the site very much but as an “oldie” I am getting confused. Views would be apprreciated

  16. Hi Gordon, tips will be on the tipping comp page ; George and I just chat through his long list and make our own minds up what we back, and other members can choose to back them or ignore them depending on how they read our chat!

    My solo picks at the end of my reply to G are what I’m backing, I also said I’d be backing a couple of his, make of it it what you will, you can see we are not really tipsters in the Nick and Colin etc sense 🙂

  17. as far as i am concerned this is not primarily a tipping site ? more of a forum and font of knowledge for me ….. a place to read digest take-away learn and make YOUR OWN mind up.
    PLEASE DON’T FOLLOW ME – YOU WILL ONLY GET UPSET 🙂
    I’d say if you can’t make your own mind up ………… give up ! 😉

    bestest regards
    gb – (sitting on the fence)

  18. Lambourn Trainers
    4.00 Lingfield Global Tango
    Charles Hills if blinkers work again hard to beat
    No more updates
    Colin

  19. Hi, can anyone point me to a good excel spreadsheet for keeping records and tracking bets please? thanks

  20. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    M 5.15 – Jessie Allen on 4th run inc 2 x aw @ 25
    W 6.00 – Foxtrot Knight on 5th and 6th run @ 18
    GL

  21. S.B.C. EARLY MORNING BULLETIN : NOT TIPS …… JUST SYSTEM FIRST STAGE QUALIFIERS FOR TODAY :

    (56) FLAT NON HANDICAPPED CLASS TWO DROP OUTS
    3.15 Musselburgh 1 El Astronaute (IRE)

    (66) THE SBC ALL WEATHER HANDICAPPERS USUAL SUSPECTS
    4.00 Lingfield 2 Red Alert

    (45) FLAT ONE MAN AND HIS HORSE WENT RACING ALONE
    4.15 Musselburgh 4 Navajo Star (IRE)

    (53) FLAT HANDICAPPED CLASS FIVE DROP OUTS
    4.45 Musselburgh 7 City Tour

    (53) FLAT HANDICAPPED CLASS FIVE DROP OUTS
    4.45 Musselburgh 1 Silver Dust (IRE)

    (32) WOLVERHAMPTON REAL TAPPAS N HANDICAPPERS CLUB TEAM
    5.25 Wolverhampton 6 Pike Corner Cross (IRE)

    (32) WOLVERHAMPTON REAL TAPPAS N HANDICAPPERS CLUB TEAM
    6.00 Wolverhampton 10 Red Invader (IRE)

    (32) WOLVERHAMPTON REAL TAPPAS N HANDICAPPERS CLUB TEAM
    6.00 Wolverhampton 7 Tonis A Star

    (32) WOLVERHAMPTON REAL TAPPAS N HANDICAPPERS CLUB TEAM
    6.30 Wolverhampton 1 Redemptorist (IRE)

    (24) AW TIFS N JIFS NON HCP MONTHLY CLASS PURPLE PATCH
    7.00 Wolverhampton 1 Blood Eagle (IRE)

    (24) AW TIFS N JIFS NON HCP MONTHLY CLASS PURPLE PATCH
    7.00 Wolverhampton 2 Eagles By Day (IRE)

    (32) WOLVERHAMPTON REAL TAPPAS N HANDICAPPERS CLUB TEAM
    8.00 Wolverhampton 4 International Law

    Will all S.B.C. members report back with any agreements please 😉
    Have a good day ….. and above all keep safe out there !!
    b.rgds
    GB 😉
    p.s. i hope this bally well ” copy n paste ” is behaving did morning ……………….

    1. SBC Vice-President checking in…..

      Gonna do Wolverhampton later, so Lingfield and Muss:

      3.15 M El Astronaute has a favourites chance althought at this stage of the flat fitness is clearly the big unknown.

      4.00 Ling Red alert has a poor draw I think so depends how strong your system is?

      4.15 M Navajo Star I am cold on so will hose up 🙂

      4.45 Muss like both your selections so will do both.

      MC solo pics for this pm:

      3.45 M Lualiwa (T/J are 31% win/59% place at track last 5 years)

      16.30 Ling Love to Breeze (60/80 over year at track)

      5.15 Muss Gamesome, looks to have a strong chance.

      G, I really,really hope your systems are actually called what you have headed them up on your post, top work!

      Back for Wolvs later vice P GB

      1. yep they are the titles indeed ( sad aren’t i ? – don’t answer that ! ) ..lol .. great aren’t they ( i’ve just re-named the SBC one it was the mc and gb joint one etc etc 😉 )

        okee dokes ……. just finished my boring work for today and now on to strip down the qualifiers … as usual you have lightened my load considerably 😉
        cheers over n out
        gb 🙂

      2. gee whizz . wee iz both getting places for fun … we just need to go to more winning places !! 🙂

    2. Class drop was the angle I went in on el astronaute at muss. Didn’t hit my top speed qualifier that went to tarboosh by a couple of points but I think the class drop and a draw advantage tipped the scales toward el astronaute.
      I’ve now doomed it to fall out the back of the telly and tarboosh to hack up.

    3. NOW STRIPPED AND BUFFED VERSION

      (56) FLAT NON HANDICAPPED CLASS TWO DROP OUTS
      3.15 Musselburgh 1 El Astronaute (IRE)
      NOT THE BEST OF DRAWS OVER 5F HERE …. NO BET FOR ME 🙁

      (66) THE SBC ALL WEATHER HANDICAPPERS USUAL SUSPECTS
      4.00 Lingfield 2 Red Alert
      SAD TO SAY BUT NOT THE RIGHT MONTH FOR PROFITS 🙁

      (45) FLAT ONE MAN AND HIS HORSE WENT RACING ALONE
      4.15 Musselburgh 4 Navajo Star (IRE)
      SYSTEM SAYS “YES” E/W (4TBP)

      (53) FLAT HANDICAPPED CLASS FIVE DROP OUTS
      4.45 Musselburgh 7 City Tour
      4.45 Musselburgh 1 Silver Dust (IRE)
      BOTH DRAWN OK..ISH 😉 ACCORDING TO SYSTEM ( SYSTEM DOES IMPROVE WITH 10 OR UNDER RUNNERS ??? )

      (32) WOLVERHAMPTON REAL TAPPAS N HANDICAPPERS CLUB TEAM
      5.25 Wolverhampton 6 Pike Corner Cross (IRE)
      NOT A GOOD MONTH FOR THIS SYSTEM 0/14 SO FAR 🙁

      (32) WOLVERHAMPTON REAL TAPPAS N HANDICAPPERS CLUB TEAM
      6.00 Wolverhampton 10 Red Invader (IRE)
      ALL GOOD E/W (4TBP) RUDE NOT TO ???

      (32) WOLVERHAMPTON REAL TAPPAS N HANDICAPPERS CLUB TEAM
      6.00 Wolverhampton 7 Tonis A Star
      ALL OK EXCEPT NOT QUITE AS “GOODA” DRAW AS RED INVADER

      (32) WOLVERHAMPTON REAL TAPPAS N HANDICAPPERS CLUB TEAM
      6.30 Wolverhampton 1 Redemptorist (IRE)
      ALL OK TO ME EXCEPT DRAW NOT BRILLIANT ..BUT JOCKEY MAY HAVE TIME TO ADJUST IN THIS DISTANCE OF RACE ???

      (32) WOLVERHAMPTON REAL TAPPAS N HANDICAPPERS CLUB TEAM
      8.00 Wolverhampton 4 International Law
      🙂 : ALL LOOKS GOOD TO ME E/W (4TBP) BET TO NOTHING ????

      (24) AW TIFS N JIFS NON HCP MONTHLY CLASS PURPLE PATCH
      7.00 Wolverhampton 1 Blood Eagle (IRE)
      7.00 Wolverhampton 2 Eagles By Day (IRE)
      CAUTION : SYSTEM SEEMS TO WORK BETTER AT LINGFIELD AND SOUTHWELL ? ?

      1. George
        I believe blood eagle at wolves later is a balding horse. He has a handy strike rate there might find some value against the favourite.

      2. Hi G, thanks for buffed longlist!

        I take your point in the 5.25 but I do like the chances of Pike Corner Cross. Also right with you on Toni’s a Star and Red Invader in the 6.00.

        We differ in the 6.30, while I respect the chances of Redemptorist, I prefer the chances of Singing Sheriff and Spiritual Man e/w.

        I don’t play in races like the 7.00. However I’m in complete agreement with you in the 8.00 re International Law but must do Arlecchinos Leap in view of trainers comments as picked out by Colin.

        So we agree on a lot! Should I break open the MC Piggy Bank and shovel it on? Good luck mi amigo 🙂

        1. i don’t think the bookies will take any old pennys or farthing tho nowadays mc …. how long you had the piggy bank ???? lol ….. in for a penny …….. 🙂
          let’s keep chipping away at the bank of the bookies 🙂

          gl gb 🙂

  22. COLINS BETS
    Lingfield
    4.00 Global Tango BOG 6/4
    5.00 Make Good BOG 5/2
    Wolverhampton
    5.25 False Id BOG 13/2
    8.00 Dark Alliance BOG 9/2
    ELITE BETS
    2.00 Lingfield Shining BOG 11/1
    8.00 Wolverhampton Decoration Of War BOG 4/1
    NEW METHOD
    Musselburgh
    3.45 Love Dreams BOG 9/4
    Lingfield
    5.00 Make Good BOG 5/2
    Wolverhampton
    6.30 Arabic Culture BOG 5/2
    8.00 Dark Alliance BOG 9/2
    Colin

    1. Colin, do you think that there is any value in setting minimum odds on your selections? I have not done the maths on your selections but maybe a minimum of 3/1 for a bet gives you a better P/L return?
      Just a thought.

      1. Martin
        Ken Mckenzie is recording all my bets at 3/1 and he emailed me yesterday and have not had time to digest it, for feeling under the weather past couple of days, and with golf and my bets time is running out Lambourn to look at later.
        My overall view is i have changed Colins bets and have missed out on some winners under 3/1, again if the said horse ticks all the boxes and it is 6/4 why should you not back it, not into all this value to have a bet for me a winner is a winner, and again sometimes the short price give you confidence and keeps the Bank ticking over(Bank enjoyed that).
        Elite and New Method are total system/method approaches and with both will not back odds on willingly.
        Colins bets have kicked myself up the bum and as of 1st April gone back to my old proven way of backing there will be more bets, if 3/1 is a cut off price there can be late N/Rs or withdrawn just before the off, which will affect the price do you not back the horse because it is now 2/1, and you watch it romp home, but you smile to yourself it wasn’t 3/1 so was not value i am happy.

        This is always a difficult area of what is right and what is wrong, for me always wanted to put my bets on early with any bookmaker who had the best price of BOG, then switch off totally until later when checked the results, sadly this avenue was closed to me some time ago
        For myself if the horse ticks all the boxes and it is evens and above will more than likely back it.
        This was going to be a short reply.
        Colin.

        1. OK no worries. What I think is a good idea generally with a system/micro is to record performance based upon all runners and say those within a price available criteria, such as between 3/1 and 20/1 for instance. Then see how both perform. My historic data tells me the latter pays better win only for me.

          1. I’ve recorded all of Colin’s bets from July 18 to current date. The optimum odds range for Colins Bets works out at 3/1 to 12/1 for that period. I will post the profits when I get back from golf.

          2. Further to my earlier post regarding Colin’s tips, I personally don’t bet below 3/1 but I have recorded all his tips since July 18. The figures I have recorded are as follows:

            Colin’s Bets (1 Jul 18 to 31 Mar 19)
            All Bets: 489 bets, Profit to BOG 25.71pts, ROI 5.26%
            3/1 to 12/1 : 347 bets, Profit 82.17pts, ROI 23.68%
            Only one winner above 12/1

            Elite Bets (1 Nov 18 to 31 Mar 19)
            All Bets: 233 Bets, Profit 24.48pts, ROI 10.50%
            9/4 to 10/1: 180 bets, Profit 62.45pts, ROI 34.69%
            No winners above 10/1 yet

            Those are the optimum odds ranges for each type of bet. I do, however, place some bets higher than 10/1 as I would hate to miss out on a biggie 🙂 Some I do EW or 1/2pt win.

            Hope that’s of some use to you.

          3. Thanks Ken – so Colins Bets – by leaving those under 3s, you’re winning +57 more points or so – or another way, those under 3s have lost around 57 points? (well that may not be quite correct given odd winner above 12s maybe) but does show how tough it is at that shorter end, and how generally those under 3s with Colins method may offer no value. Well that’s how i’d read it. Obviously hard/impos to track prices as such, so more a case of maybe following those 3/1+ (or 3s-12s) on the prices Colin posts at.

            I suspect that may be something similar for some of my strategies- esp S3A#, and poss S1 and S4 on the flat – when I get some down time I’m going to have to look back over the jumps S3A# in every post and see what those 3/1< on morning odds do. May be a way to improve that approach possibly. Thanks for that. Josh

          4. Hi Josh. Probably not as much a 57pts as I still do some higher odds bets for fear of missing the big one haha, but if you stuck to 3/1 – 12/1 over that period then yes that would’ve been the difference.

            Hi Colin, you should be getting that IT expert son of yours to give you a crash course in MS Excel so you can record and filter them yourself haha but for now I’m happy to keep recording them and send you updates from time to time.

          5. Hi Ken
            Thanks for that will totally review looks like could be 5/2 to 3/1 in future, sometimes it is hard to change so even with a very poor Jan and Feb the figures you have look good.
            Cheers
            Colin

  23. Lord of the Glen has S1 and S6 next to the name, is this correct? or am i missing something..cheers

    1. Yep that’s correct – they are Flat qualifiers – the strategy codes are different (bar S3A/S3A#) from the Jumps qualifiers – treat them both as separate.
      Please read the ‘important’ note in section 4 above also.
      S1 on the Flat is any horse that is double (or treble) top rated. Results explained above also.
      S6 is any Flat horse that is top rated x1 or more (H1/I1/G1) and is 6/1+ on widely available morning odds I add at around 8am.
      From the existing flat strategies much of my hope rests on S6, as with any luck that will have another 50-80 points season, which would be nice.
      Josh

  24. Thanks for all the comments. I expected a response and pleased to read them all. I have been following Francis and made enough plus Colin’s Elite bets but it just seemd over the last days that we were getting a lot of “indications” and couldn’t understand why. So thanks again for the the explanations and replies.

  25. Lambourn Trainers
    8.00 wolverhampton Arlecchino’s Leap BOG 9/1
    Mark Usher running over the RIGHT TRIP and he runs very well under Jason Watson, coming into himself now so he should have an EW chance.
    Missed two of Marks EW chances recently because looked at the races and decided in my opinion could not win sadly both did one at 7/1 the other cannot remember,so not looked into this one, will just back it win or lose.
    Charles Hills not come on the website with a review about his Lingfield runners yet, have to go out if anything will be up about 1.30.
    Colin

  26. I have a well thumbed notebook with (allegedly) profitable micro angles for the flat gleaned from various sources over the years. However, not having HRB, Proform or other whizzy applications I have no idea whether I am deluding myself or not.

    So if anyone is interested, I propose to post these micros at the appropriate times of the flat season (or perhaps a bit in advance) should anyone have the time or inclination to check out whether they are worth following from past seasons data they may have available to them.

    The first two angles are for flat turf racing during the month of April.

    1. Back all J Quinn 3 and 4 yo runners, especially at Ponterfract and Newmarket.

    2. Back all Mick Easterby runners in handicaps that are 3-6 yo and last raced on turf.

    As I said, these could all be drivel but it might be fun finding out and you never know some may end up being useful.

    Cheerio

      1. When you are not churning out winners for us of course! I have micros all the way thru to the Leger, be good to know if they are gold or tat. 🙂

  27. gawd …… hit the crossbar again 🙁 🙂 … got the f/c with the fav !! 🙂
    gb 🙂 naughty boy mcdoanld didn’t grab hold of the reigns quick enough .. bad steering ! …………… apart from that very pleased 🙂

    gl / gb

  28. Can I make a comment on the present state of tipping? I thought that members put forward their tips and that was that. But today we have George B with 12 “indications” and Mark Curtis with 7 “indications”. Now, are these tips and will be accounted for at the month’s end or just “indication2 from which bets will be extracted at a later time? Further when do these “indication” become full blown bets? Could we not have everybody just putting up their tips with or with a short explanation so that we all know where we are. I like the site very much but as an “oldie” I am getting confused. Views would be apprreciated

    1. Hi Gordon,

      There are no rules as to what gets posted in the comments, in terms of racing content and I don’t like the idea of everything having to be viewed as a ‘tip’ – i mean you’d be mad to follow everything posted in the comments religiously in my view, that wouldn’t be much fun at all! You’re free to ignore plenty haha.

      When the tipping comp is running, as with this month, there are those posts, and said tips. But there are not many on these pages that have the historical record built up in live play where I would be comfortable recommending diving in with your hard earned!

      My job is to try and help navigate through those, and i’ve long said if you’re to follow one ‘tipster’ in these comments, then Nick M is the main one.

      Stuart since Oct has proved himself somewhat with his jumps/national hunt tips.

      Tim’s postings with his min BFSP can be seen as ‘tips’ and while a poor month in March, has been doing just fine since posting.

      Francis’ Jumps system proved itself , but that returns in Oct now.

      Hugh has been posting his juvenile musings, and ‘tips’ (as per Sat) on these pages for 2/3 flat seasons now, and i’ve no doubt they’ll tick along just fine again, such is his specialism in that area.

      In my opinion you really don’t want to be following more than 2 or 3, but that’s just my view. Having 10/20/30 bets a day isn’t for me personally so you have to be selective, and as with most things on these pages, live with missed winners etc, and be content with your own banks progress over time.

      *
      I don’t view George’s musings as Tips – they are useful starting points from his collection of systems – you can’t back them – for one i’ve no idea how they’ve got on historically and I don’t like backing systems without knowing the rules. – which is part is why I tracked Francis’ approach but those results seem to have proved that whatever method he has, it worked, for this last jumps season anyway.

      Mark C likes betting on the sand and cross references his thoughts with George Bs, that’s all it is. I don’t view them as tips as such, but I suppose if he wanted he could start highlighting them as such, but I don’t like making demands on people who freely post their views etc!

      Colin seems to have played around with Colins Bets looking at the various discussions and Elite / New Method are still proving themselves in live play imo.

      The worst thing you can do is dive into something too early etc, a lot of the content here is useful info, thought provoking, interesting to read.

      1. Josh
        Does not matter how long you have been race reading, when a slump comes along you have self doubt and loss of confidence, this year with the mild winter there was very few abandoned NH so no extra AW meetings, normally Jan/Feb/Mar make hay on the AW
        2018
        Jan + 46.44
        Feb + 38.22
        Mar + 37.82
        2019
        Jan – 15.25 BOG – 9.5
        Feb – 17.5 BOG -14.0
        Mar + 6.625 BOG + 12.583
        Every year Jan to Mar returns are normally similar to 2018 so something went amiss, so start of Feb started tinkering as you do, but strongly believe the mild winter had a major role to play.
        What i put in place was an extra rating hoping that it would produce bigger priced bets, it produced the odd one but not enough, anyway back to the proven method and if their is a 5/4 and it ticks all the boxes it will be backed and the extra rating as gone.
        Colin

        1. Fair enough. Out of interest what were the SP figures for whole of 2018 if you have them? I don’t follow them personally, as too many at t he top of the market for my liking and i get anxious with approaches that don’t consider odds/a value judgement (in eye of beholder) at all. The elite look more interesting to me maybe, but I need to plug myself in to what is doing best etc – and again, I get anxious when not knowing why something is selected to a point, but understand folk not wanting to reveal necessarily.

  29. Well done buddy, I followed you in EW after your bullish update! I replied to your buffed list at 3.39 under your reply to Warren 🙂

  30. Hi Gordon, tips will be on the tipping comp page ; George and I just chat through his long list and make our own minds up what we back, and other members can choose to back them or ignore them depending on how they read our chat!

    My solo picks at the end of my reply to G are what I’m backing, I also said I’d be backing a couple of his, make of it it what you will, you can see we are not really tipsters in the Nick and Colin etc sense 🙂

      1. i say i’ve got no sense at all old bean !!!
        i just don’t think the reigning monthly tipster is getting enough respect form the forum adjudicator … 101 ..( cheek firmly tongue .. not in that order 🙂 )

        bestest regards
        gb 🙂
        IF ANYONE OUT THERE CANT MAKE MONEY FROM :
        josh
        martin c
        nick m
        stewart
        francis
        colin/elite
        mark c ( obviously)
        and lots more who i’ve forgotten (it’s my age)

        then ut ‘ol !!!!!! ………………… game over 🙂

        1. and tim of course ( told ya it’s my age) 🙂 … tres magnifique rodderney .. bonnet et douche … pardonner moi …Tim 😉

  31. as far as i am concerned this is not primarily a tipping site ? more of a forum and font of knowledge for me ….. a place to read digest take-away learn and make YOUR OWN mind up.
    PLEASE DON’T FOLLOW ME – YOU WILL ONLY GET UPSET 🙂
    I’d say if you can’t make your own mind up ………… give up ! 😉

    bestest regards
    gb – (sitting on the fence)

    1. I could not have put it better, except perhaps in fewer instalments 🙂 🙂

      I do not follow anybody on this site blind, I always look at what’s been put up and then decide. I miss some winners but at least it was my own responsibility. Phew, far too serious, back with the SBC forum chat ‘re Wolverhampton laters.

      1. that is why you are our club (S.B.) spokesman Brother Curtis !… “sinsinctly” put straight to the point ……. Where as i am happily and increasingly deluded and confuzzed by the world i am surrounded by 😉

        good afternoon chaps … have fun ….. may the best horse win .. ( as long as it’s got my money on it! )
        gb 🙂

    1. well ..i talked myself out of it in the end .. thought race was too competitive ..just done the 2 in the forecast .. but not to be …. got a bit messy in da final furlong ?

      on we go 🙂

  32. Lambourn Trainers
    4.00 Lingfield Global Tango
    Charles Hills if blinkers work again hard to beat
    No more updates
    Colin

  33. Thanks for all the comments. I expected a response and pleased to read them all. I have been following Francis and made enough plus Colin’s Elite bets but it just seemd over the last days that we were getting a lot of “indications” and couldn’t understand why. So thanks again for the the explanations and replies.

      1. Ah, just fallen in. Martin Colwell is going to have to change his name 🙂 great pick Martin.

  34. I have a well thumbed notebook with (allegedly) profitable micro angles for the flat gleaned from various sources over the years. However, not having HRB, Proform or other whizzy applications I have no idea whether I am deluding myself or not.

    So if anyone is interested, I propose to post these micros at the appropriate times of the flat season (or perhaps a bit in advance) should anyone have the time or inclination to check out whether they are worth following from past seasons data they may have available to them.

    The first two angles are for flat turf racing during the month of April.

    1. Back all J Quinn 3 and 4 yo runners, especially at Ponterfract and Newmarket.

    2. Back all Mick Easterby runners in handicaps that are 3-6 yo and last raced on turf.

    As I said, these could all be drivel but it might be fun finding out and you never know some may end up being useful.

    Cheerio

      1. When you are not churning out winners for us of course! I have micros all the way thru to the Leger, be good to know if they are gold or tat. 🙂

  35. gawd …… hit the crossbar again 🙁 🙂 … got the f/c with the fav !! 🙂
    gb 🙂 naughty boy mcdoanld didn’t grab hold of the reigns quick enough .. bad steering ! …………… apart from that very pleased 🙂

    gl / gb

  36. Well done buddy, I followed you in EW after your bullish update! I replied to your buffed list at 3.39 under your reply to Warren 🙂

    1. well ..i talked myself out of it in the end .. thought race was too competitive ..just done the 2 in the forecast .. but not to be …. got a bit messy in da final furlong ?

      on we go 🙂

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