Members Daily Post: 01/04/19 (complete)

Section 1 (complete) , test zone , updates…

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Ludlow

3.55 – Valseur Du Granval   (HcCh) H3 I3 G1 9/4 S4

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: +0.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 3/52,16p, -23, 2019 Flat TEST 0/1,0p, -2)

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No tips on Monday.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.55 L – Valseur Du Granval

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow

4.25 L – Talent To Amuse

3.20 L – Snapdragon Fire

4.25 L – Silk Run

Jockeys/Chasers (9/1< best)

2.50 L – Henllan Harri

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

3.55 L- Timoteo

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

YOUR Results Update’s Please 🙂 

Those of you who post regularly, or who we could describe as posting tips… can you give us an update for March and 2019 to date / and since posting if you would like. As a minimum this is simply to advised prices/prices that you get 🙂 The purpose is simply to allow us all to judge who we may back in time systematically, rather than say dipping in and out etc.

Nick Mazur

March… +31.6 points as advised (31% ROI)

2019 to date… + 30.13 points as advised, (2018 +534),  +1.42 BFSP

 

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Tipping Competition… it’s back for April, hopefully you can see the post where you can comment away. Same rules as Feb with a £50 cash prize to the winner. And the possibility of the odd discrationary cash prize for those who add to the community vibe etc. 

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Aintree Grand National 2019 Stats Pack: Complete… READ HERE>>>

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

119 Responses

  1. Results Colins bets
    March SP + 6.625 BOG + 12. 583 difference of + 5.958 to SP

    Elite bets first losing month this year
    SP – 12.341 BOG – 2.625 difference would have saved 9.716 in loses with BOG

    New Method
    1 to 8 march SP + 16.7 BOG +16.7 no bog recorded
    9 to 31 march + SP + 2.583 BOG + 21.151 an extra + 18.568 made by using bog against SP
    Total SP + 19.283 BOG + 37.851
    All 3 methods together
    SP + 13.567 BOG + 47.809 not bad for the month, over 200% up if you are able to use BOG, this is the reason for showing SP against BOG a difference of over 200% and this is why my accounts were closed.
    Colin.
    PS Adrian a bookmaking friend of over many years said that they worked on 2 to 3% of turnover, this is a few years ago, Chubnut believe you mentioned you had been a bookmaker in the past or still are, what are the percentages that they work on today, for it shows the 200% plus is massive.
    We will try and beat the enemy in April bets will be up later, just for you Mark off down Town only kidding.

    1. Hi Colin. Well done with your results for March. Just interested to know. You say you use Betfair Ex for your own bets because you can’t get BOG. How do you fare compared to BOG?

      1. Hi Ken
        Eye balls popping out my head at the moment with the keyboard warrior couple of hours, how my son wants to do computing for a living who knows.
        Will have a look over the next couple of days if have not come back by Friday give me another shout, not sparkling would imagine, it is very frustrating when to £100 stake
        SP £1,356.70 compared to BOG £4,780.90 from a good month to scraping by, may have to contact Neil and do a trial and get some income coming in for the tips, will still put them up here.
        Like the look of George for i am a stats man, Mark is also showing potential and believe he uses stats, Nick also gives decent prices and the larger ones can be 10 point plus on BFEXSP,Stewart is another who puts up decent prices which are often larger on the exchange.
        Here i go eye balls popping and taping away just like my feet on the dance floor.
        Colin.

  2. System selection – Emma Lavelle handicappers 5/1+ :

    4.25 Lud, Talent To Amuse, 12/1 now, 1 point each way.

    Tips – 5.30 Lud, Rose To Fame, 14/1 now, 1 point each way. Should improve for its initial run over hurdles and can step forward at a value price for Kim Bailey and David Bass.
    7.45 NC, Epeius, 14/1 now, 1 point each way. The trainer and jockey have strong course form and although going up in grade may be some value at the price.

    Results to date cumulative to end March:
    Tips – Minus 36.5 points (March minus 12 points).
    System selections – Plus 55 points (March plus 14.75 points).
    Golf tips (Free post) – Plus 0.25 points (March minus 10.25 points).
    Football tips (available on Twitter) – Plus 50.75 points (March plus 5.75 points).

  3. So another year ends and begins.
    Pissed as I am after a frantic game at the top of the table, my focus montarily has to be the nags. Watching for instance Uhlan not quite being on form is not dissimilar to Salah failing to pass to Milner on his own at the edge of the box which could have resulted in a goal.
    Each to there own, profit where it can be obtained, QUELL THE EMOTION.
    It could have cost me several paypackets today.
    Mike

    1. Gonna have a go at the AW tomoz
      N 5.45 Loud and Clear @ 9’s the odd 10’s
      7.45 – Inaam @7

      emotional double klipperty klopp and klopp. 1pint double. If you’re in the south then I guess that’s gonna be getting on for a Shakespeare.
      Mike

  4. Results Colins bets
    March SP + 6.625 BOG + 12. 583 difference of + 5.958 to SP

    Elite bets first losing month this year
    SP – 12.341 BOG – 2.625 difference would have saved 9.716 in loses with BOG

    New Method
    1 to 8 march SP + 16.7 BOG +16.7 no bog recorded
    9 to 31 march + SP + 2.583 BOG + 21.151 an extra + 18.568 made by using bog against SP
    Total SP + 19.283 BOG + 37.851
    All 3 methods together
    SP + 13.567 BOG + 47.809 not bad for the month, over 200% up if you are able to use BOG, this is the reason for showing SP against BOG a difference of over 200% and this is why my accounts were closed.
    Colin.
    PS Adrian a bookmaking friend of over many years said that they worked on 2 to 3% of turnover, this is a few years ago, Chubnut believe you mentioned you had been a bookmaker in the past or still are, what are the percentages that they work on today, for it shows the 200% plus is massive.
    We will try and beat the enemy in April bets will be up later, just for you Mark off down Town only kidding.

    1. Hi Colin. Well done with your results for March. Just interested to know. You say you use Betfair Ex for your own bets because you can’t get BOG. How do you fare compared to BOG?

      1. Hi Ken
        Eye balls popping out my head at the moment with the keyboard warrior couple of hours, how my son wants to do computing for a living who knows.
        Will have a look over the next couple of days if have not come back by Friday give me another shout, not sparkling would imagine, it is very frustrating when to £100 stake
        SP £1,356.70 compared to BOG £4,780.90 from a good month to scraping by, may have to contact Neil and do a trial and get some income coming in for the tips, will still put them up here.
        Like the look of George for i am a stats man, Mark is also showing potential and believe he uses stats, Nick also gives decent prices and the larger ones can be 10 point plus on BFEXSP,Stewart is another who puts up decent prices which are often larger on the exchange.
        Here i go eye balls popping and taping away just like my feet on the dance floor.
        Colin.

        1. Hi Colin, I play on the AW at the front end of the market using T/J stats and simple form reading with a feel you get (as you know) when following a particular discipline. But I am aided by George B’s HRB systems no end. I am definitely more successful when applying my techniques to George’s “shortlists” : -)

          1. Hi Mark
            Thanks for your insight and it is great to see two of you working together in your approach to beat the bookies and help others at the same time keep it up.
            Sadly for you the AW is on decline for summer flat, so be interesting to see how the ratings fair over this period.
            Colin.

  5. System selection – Emma Lavelle handicappers 5/1+ :

    4.25 Lud, Talent To Amuse, 12/1 now, 1 point each way.

    Tips – 5.30 Lud, Rose To Fame, 14/1 now, 1 point each way. Should improve for its initial run over hurdles and can step forward at a value price for Kim Bailey and David Bass.
    7.45 NC, Epeius, 14/1 now, 1 point each way. The trainer and jockey have strong course form and although going up in grade may be some value at the price.

    Results to date cumulative to end March:
    Tips – Minus 36.5 points (March minus 12 points).
    System selections – Plus 55 points (March plus 14.75 points).
    Golf tips (Free post) – Plus 0.25 points (March minus 10.25 points).
    Football tips (available on Twitter) – Plus 50.75 points (March plus 5.75 points).

  6. So another year ends and begins.
    Pissed as I am after a frantic game at the top of the table, my focus montarily has to be the nags. Watching for instance Uhlan not quite being on form is not dissimilar to Salah failing to pass to Milner on his own at the edge of the box which could have resulted in a goal.
    Each to there own, profit where it can be obtained, QUELL THE EMOTION.
    It could have cost me several paypackets today.
    Mike

    1. Gonna have a go at the AW tomoz
      N 5.45 Loud and Clear @ 9’s the odd 10’s
      7.45 – Inaam @7

      emotional double klipperty klopp and klopp. 1pint double. If you’re in the south then I guess that’s gonna be getting on for a Shakespeare.
      Mike

  7. March -18.00 and Cheltenham -17.00.

    February Bets 21, won 2, +4.77 bsp, +5.00 advised.

    Total Bets 56, won 2, -30.23 bsp, -30.00 advised since the tipping competition drew me in.

    That would be profit given a bit of luck. Would’ve helped if I’d posted everything I meant to.

    No, I don’t recommend following but I won’t give up either. At the prices I play 35 losers is nothing.

  8. full results update.
    March. staked 60.00 pts , returns 64.95 pts up 4 .95 pts
    Jan. -22.30
    Feb. +8.30
    year to date. – 9.05

    1. whoops cocked up yesterdays winner , did 1/8 of a point ew instead of 1/4 pt ew revised figures below:

      March. staked 60.00 pts , returns 69.65 pts up 9.65 pts
      Jan. -22.30
      Feb. +8.30
      March. +9.65
      year to date. – 4.35

  9. March -18.00 and Cheltenham -17.00.

    February Bets 21, won 2, +4.77 bsp, +5.00 advised.

    Total Bets 56, won 2, -30.23 bsp, -30.00 advised since the tipping competition drew me in.

    That would be profit given a bit of luck. Would’ve helped if I’d posted everything I meant to.

    No, I don’t recommend following but I won’t give up either. At the prices I play 35 losers is nothing.

  10. full results update.
    March. staked 60.00 pts , returns 64.95 pts up 4 .95 pts
    Jan. -22.30
    Feb. +8.30
    year to date. – 9.05

    1. whoops cocked up yesterdays winner , did 1/8 of a point ew instead of 1/4 pt ew revised figures below:

      March. staked 60.00 pts , returns 69.65 pts up 9.65 pts
      Jan. -22.30
      Feb. +8.30
      March. +9.65
      year to date. – 4.35

  11. today’s selections.
    Ludlow.
    3-20. Totterdown 10-1
    4-25. Field Exhibition 10-1
    both 1/4 pt ew

  12. ** SILLY BOYS CLUB : EARLY MORNING BULLETIN **

    First top be seen on my radar this morning ………….
    (63) SHOWCASING STALLION OFF SHOOTS POLYTRACK HANDICAPPERS
    2.00 Chelmsford City 4 Sundiata
    ( Stallion has good record on this surface 😉 )

    (66) MC GB ALL WEATHER HANDICAPPERS USUAL SUSPECTS
    3.05 Chelmsford City 4 Cool Echo
    (This is from our joint system compadre mc)

    laterz taterz
    nouveaucastel sur soir mon ami’s ………… 😉

    gl/gb 🙂

    1. Tres Bon G, just got in from dog walk will be looking at Chelmsford then Newcastle later on. Thanks for the bulletin :-), your class drop shortlist turned out some winners, merci.

  13. Something going wrong with the timings on this page, or I’m travelling through time backwards this morning J Dub. Very strange!

  14. COLINS BETS
    Chelmsford
    2.35 Maazel BOG 2/1
    3.05 My Girl Maise BOG 4/1
    Newcastle
    8.15 Klopp BOG 3/1
    ELITE BETS
    Ludlow
    2.50 Cresswell Legend BOG 6/4
    3.20 Thounder BOG 6/1
    4.10 Chelmsford Bubbelah BOG 11/2
    7.45 Newcastle Epeius BOG 14/1
    NEW METHOD
    3.20 Ludlow Thounder BOG 6/1
    3.05 Chelmsford My Girl Maise BOG 4/1
    Colin

    1. Elite bets there is now a N/R in the 2.50 will record as a bet.
      I will not back unless it drifts out which is very doubtful, it is not worth backing on the Exchange could well end up shorter than bookmakers SP and then deductions to come off.
      Colin.

  15. Lambourn Trainers
    Nothing today
    27 March to 31 march
    3 winners from 9
    SP + 3.75 BOG + 5.75
    Remember this is only my reading of certain trainers who quote on Lambourn trainers who i have watched for 4 months so a long way to prove if i will be successful in my reading in between the lines.
    Colin

    1. This is a valued addition to the boards Colin, much appreciated. I think you’re on the right lines- you’ll get to know what to look out for, and what certain language points to etc. Fingers crossed should work well.

  16. Oh Dear, full on hangover this morning! Can’t remember when I last felt like this. Had enough beers watching the footy without cracking a bottle of spiced rum when I got home.
    RECENT TIPS
    3m+
    L 2.50 – Fox Appeal on 6th run @ 10/3
    ………..Henllan Harri on 1st run @ 3
    GL

  17. Interplanetary message to all members :
    these are the untrimmed raw state ( yet to be trimmed or mc approved 😉 ) qualifiers from my hrb system :

    (29) ALL WEATHER HANDICAPPPERS
    7.15 Newcastle 7 Zoom Out
    (36) THE DOYLERS ON THE ALL WEATHER GAME
    6.45 Newcastle 1 Kinver Edge (USA)
    (82) NEWCASTLE REAL TAPPAS N SHUNTERS CLUB MEMBERS
    6.45 Newcastle 4 Hesslewood (IRE)
    (83) NEWCASTLE REAL TAPPAS N SHUNTERS CLUB MEMBERS
    6.15 Newcastle 3 Purdeys Gift
    (83) NEWCASTLE REAL TAPPAS N SHUNTERS CLUB MEMBERS
    6.15 Newcastle 5 Well Funded (IRE)
    (88) NEWCASTLE REAL TAPPAS N SHUNTERS CLUB MEMBERS
    8.15 Newcastle 2 Master Matt

    b.rgds
    the captain of the ship
    n.b. please wait for the ” M.C.” mc approved stamp
    be back much later for my updates & clarification from joint captain m.c. 🙂

    1. now i have had a look further into my qualifiers .. i am only having a go in the 18.15 newc both small e/w ( 4tbp)
      dry n powder springs to mind 😉

      gl tonight …. no pressure .. but i could do with an mc certaintitty 😉

      gb : )

        1. (please always post at the end of the thread 🙂 makes it so much easier, only for such comments where you’re returning with your ‘selections’ as such)

  18. Hi Peter,
    has your dad had his op and trust he his home, and hopefully he his on the road to recovery and to start off it is a hard road.
    He has been in my thoughts for the past few days, wish him well from me.

    Josh, sorry for this but did not want to put it up on the freepost for do not know who is reading it at least on the members board you have a feel who’s who.
    Colin.

    1. Hi Colin
      It’s actually Harry not Peter, but I’ve had worse!!
      Thanks for asking Colin. My dad had his operation last Tuesday all has gone well, he came home on Saturday, he lives with me since my mum died 3 years ago, slow going at the moment, but he is 84, has a real struggle to get upstairs with the crutches, grateful for any tips with that?
      Glad you are doing well, gives mke a bit of hope down the road

      1. Hi Harry
        sorry about the name, did have reservations about your dads age, obviously do not know how fit he is, i only ever used one crutch from day one, only thing i can suggest is use one crutch and use the banister rail for the other support and you walk behind him, or another angle can he sleep downstairs for a few days, till he becomes more confident.
        Only other thing i can say must do the exercises and walk about the lounge no good sitting down all day for he needs to build up his leg muscles sooner he does that then slow improvement will start, obviously he will not be able to progress as quick as me because of the age difference.
        Must be getting close to his first visit to see the physio who will give him first class advice and will show how to do exercises, only thing i can say for me it is a total new lease of life and over the next few weeks will get even better.
        Have not used a crutch for 3 weeks, for i have strong mentality and will to improve and become fit again.
        Hope this is of use to you if you are unsure then contact the hospital and they will advice you what is best for your dad, that is what they are there for to help, there is no easy way only exercise.
        Colin

  19. ** SILLY BOYS CLUB : EARLY MORNING BULLETIN **

    First top be seen on my radar this morning ………….
    (63) SHOWCASING STALLION OFF SHOOTS POLYTRACK HANDICAPPERS
    2.00 Chelmsford City 4 Sundiata
    ( Stallion has good record on this surface 😉 )

    (66) MC GB ALL WEATHER HANDICAPPERS USUAL SUSPECTS
    3.05 Chelmsford City 4 Cool Echo
    (This is from our joint system compadre mc)

    laterz taterz
    nouveaucastel sur soir mon ami’s ………… 😉

    gl/gb 🙂

    1. Tres Bon G, just got in from dog walk will be looking at Chelmsford then Newcastle later on. Thanks for the bulletin :-), your class drop shortlist turned out some winners, merci.

      1. snap .. just back from walking my 2 muts and the wife ………………..
        still working on end of month shipping figures .. back with some proper info asap … no more for chelmsford i don’t think ….. but a couple showing for newcastle why eye man 😉
        How are your investigations going ? .. anything for the poly n tappas clubs today ??

        gl gb 🙂

  20. Criteria for selections ..some thoughts on statistical choices. In 13.30 at Chelmsford Favs have 56% win record 25 wins from 45 runs and 2nd favs 20% win record with 8 wins from 45 runs making 76% in favour of one of these two winning …leaving 24% of the rest fighting for places or winning. Stats according to Betdaq form guide which uses a truncated version of Proform. On the Racing post stats for the race, Jenkins 18% wins (3/17) with level stakes profit £26.25 and runs Wadah at 150/1 and Guest 8-42 is 19% with profit £6.18 and is evens..was 11/10. With a 56% strike rate with favs for the race does represent value but in terms of trainer stats at 19% does not….So what is the base line for choosing what to back? At the prices cannot think of backing either…The fav may well win but at evens in the long term you have to have a strike rate above 50% this to make a profit long term. If your strike rate is say, 20% then anything from 4/1 up upwards is fair game..if it is 15% then you are looking for prices around the 11/2 mark plus. 10% strike rate 9/1 etc. Options are to leave the race alone or if you want a bet go for one of the other 24% of the runners to hit the frame or even win….So which one at bigger prices and as there only 7 runners each way is not an option…On 28th March I posted information on pace for Martin so using that criteria looked at the runners and the horse that caught my attention was Show Me The Bubbly..this did a 11.95 seconds per furlong …the fav Fan Breeze did 12.17 secs per furlong. Painted Dreams 12.16 spf, Alicia Dary 12.18 spf. Shorter Skirt has run 12.02 spf and 11.96 spf . The fav may well prove to be progressive and win and justify being the fav but at the price not for me. Shorter skirt trainer Houghton 1/10 and jockey Bishop 2/22 beign 10% 1nd 9% respectively so again not a backable price in terms of percentages…that leaves Show Me The Bubbly at 28/1 but trainer and Jockey stats, in particular hardly inspiring…trainer John O’Shea overall 2/45 = 4% ( 0/1 3 yo runner) Liam Jones jockey 4/74 overall and 1/24 on 3 y old horses equating to about 4% so a price of around 22/1 is value on that basis…the horse is currently 28/1 on industry prices and 2 places is around 7/1…3 places on BSP 3.85 around 11/4 so Show Me The Bubbly should be the pick. Will have a small win only bet and cover the stake on the place market..both at 2 and 3 places…worst case scenario all three bets go down…but as Silly Boys Club points out correctly only bet what you can afford to lose….all the best to whatever you are backing today.

    1. Well like all placed selections finished out the frame but Shorter Skirt hit two criteria raced 12.02 and 11.95 spf comparable with Show Me the Bubbly and did beat the short priced fav having run 12.16 LTO and dare I mention this, was a class dropper. returned 7/2 sp 2nd fav. Some vindication for some of the stats and figures. Just a pity I did not back it!

  21. Josh……. just posted but says it is posted 1 hour ago so assuming summer time blues affecting the system..

    1. Sorry guys…. changed my mind purely because I came across a killer stat, but for me a sire with only the one win from 53 AW starts is just too big a pill to swallow.

  22. Something going wrong with the timings on this page, or I’m travelling through time backwards this morning J Dub. Very strange!

  23. HURRAH!!!

    I’ve got my techie support friend to sort out the comments, was a coding fault I think (way above my capabilities!)

    Anyway, timings on comments are now correct 🙂 And much more helpful!

    Josh

  24. COLINS BETS
    Chelmsford
    2.35 Maazel BOG 2/1
    3.05 My Girl Maise BOG 4/1
    Newcastle
    8.15 Klopp BOG 3/1
    ELITE BETS
    Ludlow
    2.50 Cresswell Legend BOG 6/4
    3.20 Thounder BOG 6/1
    4.10 Chelmsford Bubbelah BOG 11/2
    7.45 Newcastle Epeius BOG 14/1
    NEW METHOD
    3.20 Ludlow Thounder BOG 6/1
    3.05 Chelmsford My Girl Maise BOG 4/1
    Colin

      1. Hi Francis
        Felt guilty yesterday for not mentioning you and your stats which proved very good over the jumps season, have you anything for the flat?
        For Colins bets needed that yesterday, for had added an extra rating over the past 6 or so months which proved a bad decision, and cut down on the shorter priced ones, if above evens and i think they will win will back them again, so hopefully should be a vast improvement on returns, fingers crossed.
        Colin.

    1. Elite bets there is now a N/R in the 2.50 will record as a bet.
      I will not back unless it drifts out which is very doubtful, it is not worth backing on the Exchange could well end up shorter than bookmakers SP and then deductions to come off.
      Colin.

  25. Lambourn Trainers
    Nothing today
    27 March to 31 march
    3 winners from 9
    SP + 3.75 BOG + 5.75
    Remember this is only my reading of certain trainers who quote on Lambourn trainers who i have watched for 4 months so a long way to prove if i will be successful in my reading in between the lines.
    Colin

    1. This is a valued addition to the boards Colin, much appreciated. I think you’re on the right lines- you’ll get to know what to look out for, and what certain language points to etc. Fingers crossed should work well.

  26. Hi all. my three for today.

    S.d.S. at Chelmsford

    14:00 ANTONIA CLARA @ 8.0
    15:05 SWISS CROSS @ 6.0
    15:40 JAUNITO CHICO @ 6.5

    My Numbers:

    MARCH 7/69 22p ROI -21.10%
    FEBRUARY 14/64 30p ROI 19.40%
    JANUARY 8/42 17p ROI 7.65%
    TOTAL 29/175 69p ROI 3.80&

    G.L. To everyone in April

  27. Hi Everyone I’ve only just got around to signing up.
    I love racing especially the flat however i’ve just bought into a jump horse so looking forward to looking more over the jumps the next few months.

  28. Oh Dear, full on hangover this morning! Can’t remember when I last felt like this. Had enough beers watching the footy without cracking a bottle of spiced rum when I got home.
    RECENT TIPS
    3m+
    L 2.50 – Fox Appeal on 6th run @ 10/3
    ………..Henllan Harri on 1st run @ 3
    GL

  29. Yes its cost me a couple of quid (literaly) but I’m gonna say it anyway, Grace McEntee’s ride on Malaysian Boleh is very odd.

    (whilst I’m here I wasn’t entirely sold on Jane Elliots on Secret Lightning)

  30. Interplanetary message to all members :
    these are the untrimmed raw state ( yet to be trimmed or mc approved 😉 ) qualifiers from my hrb system :

    (29) ALL WEATHER HANDICAPPPERS
    7.15 Newcastle 7 Zoom Out
    (36) THE DOYLERS ON THE ALL WEATHER GAME
    6.45 Newcastle 1 Kinver Edge (USA)
    (82) NEWCASTLE REAL TAPPAS N SHUNTERS CLUB MEMBERS
    6.45 Newcastle 4 Hesslewood (IRE)
    (83) NEWCASTLE REAL TAPPAS N SHUNTERS CLUB MEMBERS
    6.15 Newcastle 3 Purdeys Gift
    (83) NEWCASTLE REAL TAPPAS N SHUNTERS CLUB MEMBERS
    6.15 Newcastle 5 Well Funded (IRE)
    (88) NEWCASTLE REAL TAPPAS N SHUNTERS CLUB MEMBERS
    8.15 Newcastle 2 Master Matt

    b.rgds
    the captain of the ship
    n.b. please wait for the ” M.C.” mc approved stamp
    be back much later for my updates & clarification from joint captain m.c. 🙂

      1. Silly boys Update:

        Just Chelmers for now. Sundiata has favourites chance, trainer very confident but was 4/5 when I last checked so too short for me for a single. Cool Echo interesting, seems to like Kempton more and I think JJ and Mr P have a better record there? But I am always wary of this combo so will have a small EW bet, tho without a great deal of confidence. I have a sneaky feeling My Girl Maisie can go well too.

        My only other bets at Chelmers in the 5.15, Squire and Gas Monkey.

        Back later with pre Newcastle thoughts, I feel the pressure of expectation now G so watch the wheels fall off our bandwagon 🙂

          1. Yep , yep .. i am all over colin’s fancy as well now …… indeed i think “mgm” has better credentials for winning purposes and i will back “ce” on my beloved 4tbp 😉
            first time at chelmsford for “ce” … his “OR” is definitely a placeable one admittedly never won with this higher OR though … probert rides chemlmsford well i think ? it would make a nice forecast ? 😉
            back later for nuke 😉
            gl/gb
            p.s. and thanks for your thoughts

    1. now i have had a look further into my qualifiers .. i am only having a go in the 18.15 newc both small e/w ( 4tbp)
      dry n powder springs to mind 😉

      gl tonight …. no pressure .. but i could do with an mc certaintitty 😉

      gb : )

        1. (please always post at the end of the thread 🙂 makes it so much easier, only for such comments where you’re returning with your ‘selections’ as such)

  31. SILLY BOYS GO UP THE TOON 🙂

    Hi G and other aficionados. From the long list I’ve ignored the 6.45 (odds on fav) and 8.15 (non-runner).

    7.15 Zoom Out is interesting, will save on Blazing Dreams as trainer likes a winner here and it’s being backed.

    6.15 again, your selection Purdeys gift is interesting, up against a warm fav but yard in good form. Worth a little bet?

    Other selections tho not churned out by the GB system:

    7.45 Martineo looks the right favourite but am having an EW tickle on Epeius (agreeing with Colin, again) and Duke Cosimo.

    8.15 Magical Spirit looks a worthy alternative to Klopp.

    Not that inspiring a card tonite G but we’ll see. Best of luck.

  32. Hi Peter,
    has your dad had his op and trust he his home, and hopefully he his on the road to recovery and to start off it is a hard road.
    He has been in my thoughts for the past few days, wish him well from me.

    Josh, sorry for this but did not want to put it up on the freepost for do not know who is reading it at least on the members board you have a feel who’s who.
    Colin.

    1. Hi Colin
      It’s actually Harry not Peter, but I’ve had worse!!
      Thanks for asking Colin. My dad had his operation last Tuesday all has gone well, he came home on Saturday, he lives with me since my mum died 3 years ago, slow going at the moment, but he is 84, has a real struggle to get upstairs with the crutches, grateful for any tips with that?
      Glad you are doing well, gives mke a bit of hope down the road

      1. Hi Harry
        sorry about the name, did have reservations about your dads age, obviously do not know how fit he is, i only ever used one crutch from day one, only thing i can suggest is use one crutch and use the banister rail for the other support and you walk behind him, or another angle can he sleep downstairs for a few days, till he becomes more confident.
        Only other thing i can say must do the exercises and walk about the lounge no good sitting down all day for he needs to build up his leg muscles sooner he does that then slow improvement will start, obviously he will not be able to progress as quick as me because of the age difference.
        Must be getting close to his first visit to see the physio who will give him first class advice and will show how to do exercises, only thing i can say for me it is a total new lease of life and over the next few weeks will get even better.
        Have not used a crutch for 3 weeks, for i have strong mentality and will to improve and become fit again.
        Hope this is of use to you if you are unsure then contact the hospital and they will advice you what is best for your dad, that is what they are there for to help, there is no easy way only exercise.
        Colin

  33. Criteria for selections ..some thoughts on statistical choices. In 13.30 at Chelmsford Favs have 56% win record 25 wins from 45 runs and 2nd favs 20% win record with 8 wins from 45 runs making 76% in favour of one of these two winning …leaving 24% of the rest fighting for places or winning. Stats according to Betdaq form guide which uses a truncated version of Proform. On the Racing post stats for the race, Jenkins 18% wins (3/17) with level stakes profit £26.25 and runs Wadah at 150/1 and Guest 8-42 is 19% with profit £6.18 and is evens..was 11/10. With a 56% strike rate with favs for the race does represent value but in terms of trainer stats at 19% does not….So what is the base line for choosing what to back? At the prices cannot think of backing either…The fav may well win but at evens in the long term you have to have a strike rate above 50% this to make a profit long term. If your strike rate is say, 20% then anything from 4/1 up upwards is fair game..if it is 15% then you are looking for prices around the 11/2 mark plus. 10% strike rate 9/1 etc. Options are to leave the race alone or if you want a bet go for one of the other 24% of the runners to hit the frame or even win….So which one at bigger prices and as there only 7 runners each way is not an option…On 28th March I posted information on pace for Martin so using that criteria looked at the runners and the horse that caught my attention was Show Me The Bubbly..this did a 11.95 seconds per furlong …the fav Fan Breeze did 12.17 secs per furlong. Painted Dreams 12.16 spf, Alicia Dary 12.18 spf. Shorter Skirt has run 12.02 spf and 11.96 spf . The fav may well prove to be progressive and win and justify being the fav but at the price not for me. Shorter skirt trainer Houghton 1/10 and jockey Bishop 2/22 beign 10% 1nd 9% respectively so again not a backable price in terms of percentages…that leaves Show Me The Bubbly at 28/1 but trainer and Jockey stats, in particular hardly inspiring…trainer John O’Shea overall 2/45 = 4% ( 0/1 3 yo runner) Liam Jones jockey 4/74 overall and 1/24 on 3 y old horses equating to about 4% so a price of around 22/1 is value on that basis…the horse is currently 28/1 on industry prices and 2 places is around 7/1…3 places on BSP 3.85 around 11/4 so Show Me The Bubbly should be the pick. Will have a small win only bet and cover the stake on the place market..both at 2 and 3 places…worst case scenario all three bets go down…but as Silly Boys Club points out correctly only bet what you can afford to lose….all the best to whatever you are backing today.

    1. I like the time per furlong basis and will test it. With an approach/system it needs an added edge. If it appears to easy to operate it usually is and so fails. A factor for the all weather would be, if you could measure it, would be effort levels of the jockey on its previous run(s). I guess you can watch recordings if you have the time/inclination? Lots of joggers going around and kick when too late going on there.
      On the flat you need a decent size field to get more chance of the race being run at a pace. I would go up to a mile and a quarter and leave it there. Too much trundling around at the higher distances.

      1. Hi Martin…all valid points…on the all weather query…I did a retrospective on the Lincoln race and Auxerre did come out on top running 12.05 spf and that was calculated using the LTO run at Kempton on the AW…I factored in a going allowance of .17 (gd to firm) and the horse LTO clocked a speed of 37.71 mph. This compared with South Seas which ran 12.4spf LTO @ 36.29 mph. Berringer ran 12.20 spf LTO clocking 36.36 mph. Saltansfell ran 12.51 LTO clocking 35.96 , Another Batt ran 12.31 LTO clocking 36.52 mph so some validity on the resluts there. I agree regarding distances … you could argue up to 10 furlongs is valid….sprints are problematical, too , as fine margins in terms of time you are talking fractions of a second and mph…but as tool helps to eliminate the absolute plodders that have no chance whilst identifying those that may well be improving run to run. Horses trundling round can be a problem in falsely run races,that it is why it is important to check the times of the race you are taking figures from….you cannot assume the higher the class of race the better as have recorded lower class of race that has been run. faster than group one races and horses have beaten the G1 horse…and can only put this down to the pace the race has been run .fro Where you are taking the readings from LTO or on previous runs is important to get true comparisons Other factors like jockey capability etc do come into play as you point out and it is important to look at the race in question with other factors like form etc….as a guide the pace and mph angle gives you a good guide of what a horse is capable of achieving as well as determiiningif it is improving or regressing…like all “systems” should be taking as a guide in conjuction with other factors but does give measureable data that can be looked at critically other than totally subjective opinions. All good stuff and thanks for the comments.

    2. Well like all placed selections finished out the frame but Shorter Skirt hit two criteria raced 12.02 and 11.95 spf comparable with Show Me the Bubbly and did beat the short priced fav having run 12.16 LTO and dare I mention this, was a class dropper. returned 7/2 sp 2nd fav. Some vindication for some of the stats and figures. Just a pity I did not back it!

  34. Josh……. just posted but says it is posted 1 hour ago so assuming summer time blues affecting the system..

    1. oh the clock/timing aspects on these comments has always been a bit odd and I can’t work out how to fix it, but will have another play around!

    1. Sorry guys…. changed my mind purely because I came across a killer stat, but for me a sire with only the one win from 53 AW starts is just too big a pill to swallow.

  35. HURRAH!!!

    I’ve got my techie support friend to sort out the comments, was a coding fault I think (way above my capabilities!)

    Anyway, timings on comments are now correct 🙂 And much more helpful!

    Josh

  36. what a joke that 18.15 was ?? ….. it was like .. all of the other four jockeys had put down there sticks and waiting and looking behind for the odds on fav to catch them up ………. i am obviously looking at it with a sore wallet … but that race looked suspect … i know josh …. i know ….. no such thing as skullduggery in racing and that all horses and jockeys are trying their best …???????????? well not at 18.15 they weren’t !!
    bahh humbug !!! i want a stewards !! …lol 🙂
    mc what’s it all about !!!
    gl mc ….. glad stakes were low in any case
    on we go …. wounded but still going ! 🙂

    1. Hmm nothing Like bit of controversy to Stir up the Emotions
      Skullduggery, Never seen more of It in over 50 Years of Racing .
      And in the Main I finish in Front .
      Just have to be aware of it and Get on with it .
      It Does become Clear when you watch racing who the likely Culprits are .
      Remember Years ago
      When you Heard those awful words over The Tannoy “Stewards Enquiry” and Got ready to tear tickets up .
      Multiple tiimes on a Saturday .
      Not any More
      The Stewards are a Toothless Race Nowadays.

  37. Hi Everyone I’ve only just got around to signing up.
    I love racing especially the flat however i’ve just bought into a jump horse so looking forward to looking more over the jumps the next few months.

    1. Welcome Phil… THE jumps horse, Really Super! 🙂 I’m expecting you to take full advantage of the tipping comp, details above, should see the post when hitting ‘home’ hopefully. Josh

  38. Not expecting them to really colin thanks…just tongue firmly in cheek….. but it did look funny the other jockeys body language …it always looks worse when you are on the wrong end of the result ha ha ..ha ha ..one of mirst mentions won the next though ..but i didnt do it in the end tho

  39. Yes its cost me a couple of quid (literaly) but I’m gonna say it anyway, Grace McEntee’s ride on Malaysian Boleh is very odd.

    (whilst I’m here I wasn’t entirely sold on Jane Elliots on Secret Lightning)

    1. What was wrong with it?? I mean in the context that as yet she’s not the most competent of riders… 1/87 in her career, 0/69, 12p when riding for her (dad?, I assume) in last year. Horse had 1st Visor on, she’s tried to get a good prominent position but he’s not picked up early, she’s used up loads of gas in first 2f – he’s then over-racing, due to that effort, gets a position but 2/3 off fence, she’s then had to make an effort very wide, and he’s just ran out of gas hasn’t he? Admittedly her ‘handsy’ riding style in final 2 F could look more polished, but horse has just shot his bolt there for me. To my ‘post race hindsight’ eyes anyway!! 🙂

      1. Annoyingly I can’t watch it again but caught a couple of the replays on 365 and with my (untrained!!) eyes i found it strange to look for traffic at the business end. The fact that it seemed to travel so well (imo!) exacerbates it a bit. Will have look at the start if I can find a replay

        1. I may have been looking at the wrong horse haha – but I don’t think so- she was aggressive early, as i’d hope in 1st visor as no point holding up – he wasn’t quick enough to get a position that she wanted, so then just took her medicine and then tried to settle him – he pulled plenty to my eyes in the mid part of race – she hasn’t found traffic has she? Once she was in the position she found herself in (he wasn’t quick enough/well enough away to get a better one at start) , she had no choice but to swing wide- a few horses in front of her were coming back, she had to go around them wide on turn, as she was 3 off rail, and one on her inside forced her hand, and he also didn’t handle the bend very well. Well, that’s what it looks like to me anyway. Not sure Kirby would have got that one in the places today.

          She wasn’t anywhere near involved at business end?? He was near the back with a furlong to go, plodding home…

          1. (oh Jane elliot’s one… he seemed to have plenty of running left yep, but no gap/couldn’t seem to find a way through… the other one was well stuffed… my comments referring to McEntee’s, not Elliots horse/ride)

  40. Brilliant stuff my man …… just got my head into my hrb systems ….so not as attentive this evening as i shud be ….keep up the good work 😉

  41. SILLY BOYS GO UP THE TOON 🙂

    Hi G and other aficionados. From the long list I’ve ignored the 6.45 (odds on fav) and 8.15 (non-runner).

    7.15 Zoom Out is interesting, will save on Blazing Dreams as trainer likes a winner here and it’s being backed.

    6.15 again, your selection Purdeys gift is interesting, up against a warm fav but yard in good form. Worth a little bet?

    Other selections tho not churned out by the GB system:

    7.45 Martineo looks the right favourite but am having an EW tickle on Epeius (agreeing with Colin, again) and Duke Cosimo.

    8.15 Magical Spirit looks a worthy alternative to Klopp.

    Not that inspiring a card tonite G but we’ll see. Best of luck.

  42. Josh,

    It would be useful if you could also post a monthly update with the others to keep things nice and easy in one place, both for your own tips and the various strategy qualifiers.

    Cheers

  43. what a joke that 18.15 was ?? ….. it was like .. all of the other four jockeys had put down there sticks and waiting and looking behind for the odds on fav to catch them up ………. i am obviously looking at it with a sore wallet … but that race looked suspect … i know josh …. i know ….. no such thing as skullduggery in racing and that all horses and jockeys are trying their best …???????????? well not at 18.15 they weren’t !!
    bahh humbug !!! i want a stewards !! …lol 🙂
    mc what’s it all about !!!
    gl mc ….. glad stakes were low in any case
    on we go …. wounded but still going ! 🙂

    1. Just had a look on BHA stewards report nothing up at the moment to say that they are looking at the race, George have a look in 1 hour should be up by then either way.
      Colin

    2. Hmm nothing Like bit of controversy to Stir up the Emotions
      Skullduggery, Never seen more of It in over 50 Years of Racing .
      And in the Main I finish in Front .
      Just have to be aware of it and Get on with it .
      It Does become Clear when you watch racing who the likely Culprits are .
      Remember Years ago
      When you Heard those awful words over The Tannoy “Stewards Enquiry” and Got ready to tear tickets up .
      Multiple tiimes on a Saturday .
      Not any More
      The Stewards are a Toothless Race Nowadays.

  44. Not expecting them to really colin thanks…just tongue firmly in cheek….. but it did look funny the other jockeys body language …it always looks worse when you are on the wrong end of the result ha ha ..ha ha ..one of mirst mentions won the next though ..but i didnt do it in the end tho

  45. Why-eye, after Gas Monkey goes down by a head, Blazing does the biz, phew (relieved smiley).

  46. Brilliant stuff my man …… just got my head into my hrb systems ….so not as attentive this evening as i shud be ….keep up the good work 😉

  47. Josh,

    It would be useful if you could also post a monthly update with the others to keep things nice and easy in one place, both for your own tips and the various strategy qualifiers.

    Cheers

  48. Hi all. my three for today.

    S.d.S. at Chelmsford

    14:00 ANTONIA CLARA @ 8.0
    15:05 SWISS CROSS @ 6.0
    15:40 JAUNITO CHICO @ 6.5

    My Numbers:

    MARCH 7/69 22p ROI -21.10%
    FEBRUARY 14/64 30p ROI 19.40%
    JANUARY 8/42 17p ROI 7.65%
    TOTAL 29/175 69p ROI 3.80&

    G.L. To everyone in April

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