Members Daily Post: 31/03/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ascot

2.45 –

Scaramanga   (micro’s class,age,runs and HcHdeb) 14,30  w1 10/3

Deadline Diva   (m’s class,age and runs) 14,30  20/1 S2A 

Honorable   (m TJC) 25/1 S2A

3.20 – Favorito Bucks   (m’s class and dist) 14,30 G3 6/4 

4.30 – Josses Hill   (m TJC) 4/1

5.05 – Peak To Peak   (m class) 14,30 7/1 

 

Bonus Irish

Limerick

4.40 – Alto Esqua   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 11/1 S2 S3A 

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FLAT

Doncaster

2.00 –

Saluti   (m age) 8/1

Start Time   (m age) H3 22/1 

3.10 – Buridan   (all Hc’s) I3 6/1 

 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: +2.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 3/52,16p, -23, 2019 Flat TEST 0/1,0p, -2)

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Daily Tips

4.30 Ascot 

Junction Fourteen – 1 point win – 5/1 (gen) UP 7/1 – no excuse, travelled well, had a perfect spot, generally jumped well, didn’t find much when asked, just not good enough on the day,.

Loose Chips – 1 point win – 16/1 (Bet365/Skyb/BV) 14/1 (the rest) PU, hmm, moving on.

Not a great race for the tips. I wasn’t close to the winner in truth, I thought he’d want better ground, didn’t like how he never went a yard LTO (and jumping was shoddy), but he had run well the race before, and won the race last year. I thought he wanted it much softer, but more a case of him having not run on a sound surface since 2015. I’ve got him very wrong, a very good ride, and the Pipes are having a purple spell, their first for a while! These Vets chases are tough, often depending on the mood of the horse on the day to a point, and maybe bar the Final at Sandown, I should leave them alone.

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Ascot ‘through the card’ 

2.10 – Baddesley Prince 10/3 / 3/1

2.45 – Praeceps 5/1 UP

3.20 – Volt Fact 4/1 UP

3.55- Highway One O One 2/1

4.30 – tips above

5.05 – Peak To Peak UP

5.40 – referring to Darran Pearce’s preview … Virak to beat Arrears  1 point FC, Virak to beat Queen Olivia 1/2 point FC

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4.30 – write up…

Junction Fourteen…

I thought he deserved to be competing for favouritism in this and should be a 7/2, 4s shot, given that he’s one of the few in here who will enjoy the ground conditions, has very solid course form, and arrives in form – on RPR his was the best LTO run in this, and by quite some way compared to a few of these. That Donny run was decent enough. No shame in losing to Looking Well there, the rest stuffed out of sight. That horse would  have won the Borders National I suspect, but for capsizing a couple out, and on his last start he would have been a solid second in The Grimthorpe, again but for falling at the last. Junction F is a lightly raced 10 year old, who’s had a light campaign, and that’s generally the sort of profile I like to keep onside in these Vets races. He’s clearly had his issues but could come on for that last run and he responded to pressure there, staying on well come the line. You have to go back a little while to find his very good runs, but if he got back to anything like the level of that 4th at Newbury in 2017, or the 2nd here over CD in Oct 16, then he’d brush this lot aside I think, esp given the ground here. He’s a prominent racer who usually jumps well, and I suspect he’ll track Loose Chips, before trying to take it up over the last couple. He can throw in the odd shocker, like most in here now in their advancing years, but if he builds on his run LTO, he’s the one to beat to my eyes.

Loose Chips…

I suspect this will be the final time I ever back this horse, as he is 13 now, but at 16s/14s I couldn’t help myself. His best runs have been on decent ground and he does arrive in form I think- he has the 2nd best LTO RPR in this, that Sandown 5th is good ‘on the figures’ – and I suspect it’s because he went well for a long way, in a pace battle for most of it, up against younger/progressive rivals. However, he did rally and plug on, he didn’t fall out the back of the TV and the front 5 were some way ahead of the rest here. We know what they will try and do  – it will be an all or nothing front running effort. IF he can get a lead, and I hope Junction F may just sit off him rather than taking him on (that’s what he usually does in bigger fields) he could get this lot on the stretch, especially if he jumps as well as he can. With any luck he’s the one to pass as they turn for home and I can see him just staying there, winging the last to put it to bed! He will give his all, and this could be some swansong. Another CD win would be just superb!

Of the rest… Bigbadjohn is fancied and I can see why to a point. However he was woeful LTO and i’m not sure as to the depth of his recent better efforts. He’s had 140 days off and as yet hasn’t won after such a break but I suppose if he repeated that Wincanton run, he would be in there pitching. He was 17L behind Junction F in that Ascot chase in Dec 17 (and what a race that was… Gold Present/Frodon/Walk In The Mill/OO Seven/Singlefarmpayment/ Yala Enki the top 6, JF in 7th, BigBadJ a further 17L back in 8th). In any case, I didn’t think 5s was overpriced, whereas I thought it was for JF. Horatio H is out of the handicap and i’m sure he’s better on softer ground- he has that to prove anyway and is just very hard to win with. He does arrive in form, but is usually more patiently ridden, and JF beats him if running up to his mark. Again I didn’t think he looked overpriced. Josses Hill is just frustrating. He shapes these days as if this could be his trip but his jumping is still an issue – I fancied him LTO and he was still travelling when coming to grief – he can be very guessy at his fences and you don’t want that around here. He’s had a break also. He was 4s when looking and that wasn’t generous enough.

Exitas – he’s being backed and if he returned to that Aintree form, he’d go close. I can see the case but he’s had a busy old season and it could just be catching up with him. Lorcan W is back on which I thought interesting and he could be the main danger to my two.

For various reasons I was more than happy to leave the rest and if i’ve got one of them wrong, then so be it.

Best of luck.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

The Flat/AW

The Doyler

2.35 D – Country

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D McCain (14/1< guide)

2.45 A – Liva

Tom Lacey 

2.10 A – En Meme Temps

Irish Raiders (16/1<guide)

2.45 A – Quantatmental

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Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Trainers to follow

5.05 A – Gunfleet (14/1<)

2.10 A – En Meme Temps

Jockeys/Chasers

3.20 A-  Favorito Bucks

4.30 A – Horatio Hornblower

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Team RTP round up…

Well the flat is back! …and the AW, albeit that never went away, but maybe something in the classy card at Kempton and members doing well… Martin C with a cracker in George Bowen, who Mark C also put up, along with the 1-3 I think in the 3.15 … building on a good few days for him from memory- and certainly when Mark Cs selections cross over with any of George Bs all-weather system selections, they seem to go well.

Nick’s been giving the impression he’s been waiting for the return of the flat (albeit his Festival wasn’t too shabby!) and banged in a 9/1 winner, 14/1 placed effort, to get his turf season off to a good start. We will be in clover if he can repeat last summer – no pressure (he hates when I say that) But his ability in straight track flat handicaps is the best on these pages, on the evidence available anyway.

HUGH! …who’s maybe drinking a beer/wine on the slopes as I type – well he’s our resident flat juvenile expert, as he showed again with his winner at Donny. His posts are always educational and while it appears the in-depth write ups won’t be as frequent, hopefully still plenty to absorb in the weeks ahead. He does epitomise ‘specialisation’ which is arguably important in this game.

A final thanks to Francis, who’s jumps system is now on vacation until October time. Personally I haven’t been following them systematically, as I awaited evidence in live play to build up, but given those results, whatever his system is, it appears to work! So, I look forward to that returning next jumps season proper, where I can give it the kiss of death by following them. (apols in advance)

Well done to anyone else who landed on a few winners, I think Colin may well have done, and he deserves some luck. Chubnut’s main EW bet ran with credit into the places. I could go on 🙂

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This coming week, likely Monday, I’ll tidy up the Flat Strategies document and bring the results up to date from back end of last season. I’m hoping S6 (that’s any flat qualifier in section 1, that’s top rated – H1 and/or I1 and/or G1, 6/1+ on morning odds) does as well as last year, as that has been a solid 40-50+ point system, and what with Jumps S1/S3A# , they are the three strategies that most of my systematic hopes rest on, over time. (100-200 points a calendar year)

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Flat Big Race Analysis

Well my Test poke on the Phil Kirby horse didn’t go to plan, I think he tailed in last – not sure if an issue, as he was in trouble before fitness would have been a question – maybe he does need cut now he’s got older, or in what may have been a slowly run race (well the winner made all, but could be a group horse) over 8f, he just didn’t have the change of gears to pick up. Anyway, IF they ever find the key, he will be bolting up in a decent race so i’ll be watching closely. He could just be a dud now though, time will tell, but i’d like to think he’s got a decent handicap in him, maybe over 10f, maybe on softer ground, maybe at Ascot. Using Spencer was a sign of intent I think.

Early promise for the ‘trainers’ pointers section, having found the winner of the Irish Lincoln last week, and ‘The’ Lincoln on Saturday. That’s simply when I apply my race stats/trends, and cross reference with those trainers that have previously won the race. Simple. We will see how these three ideas below develop as the season progresses..

Trainers : 2/4, 2p, +11 

Longlist: 1/13, 5p, -3 (placed horses offering hope) 

Shortlist: 0/8, 1p, -8 (early days! 🙂 ) 

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Right, I think that’s enough from me.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

114 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Hi Josh,

    Any chance of an Ascot through the card for tomorrow? No worries if you are too busy
    Cheers
    Doug

    dougandnicky 11/08/19 9:45 PM Reply


    • Hi Doug,
      as above in section 2, and below for convenience. That’s worth a beer next time we are track side watching Blessed, (even if they all bomb out, ahem) 🙂

      Ascot ‘through the card’ 

      2.10 – Baddesley Prince 10/3 / 3/1

      2.45 – Praeceps 5/1

      3.20 – Volt Fact 4/1

      3.55- Highway One O One 2/1

      4.30 – tips above

      5.05 – Peak To Peak

      5.40 – referring to Darran Pearce’s preview … Virak to beat Arrears  1 point FC, Virak to beat Queen Olivia 1/2 point FC

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      Josh 11/08/19 10:11 PM Reply


  • 2.00 Donc Right Action 1pt
    last year’s winner of this race coming back 1lb lower.
    SDS is back on board too. first time since its win last year.

    Andy G 11/08/19 9:57 PM Reply


    • Missed off the price!. It was 10/1 when I posted but now 8/1. 🙂

      Andy G 11/08/19 10:12 PM Reply


    • Well done Andy. Top stuff. Are you another who’s been crying out for a return of the turf?? 🙂 Great start.

      Josh 11/08/19 10:11 PM Reply


      • On balance, yes.
        But my greatest problem is time or lack of it.
        I did look through the 3.10 Done too and my shortlist consisted of:
        Tommy Taylor
        Upstaging
        Ower Fly
        Naadir

        Upstaging & Tommy are closely matched on their runs at Ascot last September. Upstaging has changed stables and the new trainer hasn’t a good record with newbies.
        Tommy T has run in valuable handicaps throughout 2018 so this is a drop in grade and value.
        Naadir was the winner of this race last year and is only 2lb higher. A threat.
        Ower Fly is handicapped to win and in the correct grade. If James Sullivan didn’t ride like a knitted dolly I’d be more confident.
        So, Tommy T 1pt
        Naadir 1/2 pt
        Ower Fly 1/2 pt

        Andy G 11/08/19 10:12 PM Reply


  • Nice to kick off the new flat season with a winner. Hopefully it continues tomorrow:

    Mutafarrid Doncaster 14:00 1pt e/w 12/1
    Tommy Taylor Doncaster 15:10 1pt e/w 12/1

    nickmazur 11/08/19 9:57 PM Reply


    • Thanks Nick for another good month, managed to get a couple of places so a very profitable day. Cheers

      Chris Sengelow 11/08/19 10:12 PM Reply


    • A professional bettor friend of mine is very keen on Muterfarrid. I will have another look at him

      chubnut 11/08/19 10:12 PM Reply


  • Tip – 2,45 Ascot, Quantamental, 2.5 points each way. 8/1 now on Bet365 and 7/1 generally. Gavin Cromwell brings this one over. Improving with runs and missed Cheltenham to go for something easier. Worth a go at the price.

    Systems selections – Emma Lavelle handicappers 5/1+.
    4.30 Ascot, Junction Fourteen (if it drifts in price from 9/2); 5.50 Ascot, Gunfleet, 6/1 now.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 11/08/19 9:57 PM Reply


    • The systems selections are both 2 points win.

      martin colwell 11/08/19 10:11 PM Reply


    • Quantamental on the drift or what?? Must have had a big night out on Saturday and is on its uppers? Wheelbarrow job if it goes in at current prices.

      martin colwell 11/08/19 10:11 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Any chance of an Ascot through the card for tomorrow? No worries if you are too busy
    Cheers
    Doug

    dougandnicky 30/03/19 6:40 PM Reply


    • Hi Doug,
      as above in section 2, and below for convenience. That’s worth a beer next time we are track side watching Blessed, (even if they all bomb out, ahem) 🙂

      Ascot ‘through the card’ 

      2.10 – Baddesley Prince 10/3 / 3/1

      2.45 – Praeceps 5/1

      3.20 – Volt Fact 4/1

      3.55- Highway One O One 2/1

      4.30 – tips above

      5.05 – Peak To Peak

      5.40 – referring to Darran Pearce’s preview … Virak to beat Arrears  1 point FC, Virak to beat Queen Olivia 1/2 point FC

      *

      Josh 31/03/19 10:27 AM Reply


  • 2.00 Donc Right Action 1pt
    last year’s winner of this race coming back 1lb lower.
    SDS is back on board too. first time since its win last year.

    Andy G 30/03/19 7:31 PM Reply


    • Missed off the price!. It was 10/1 when I posted but now 8/1. 🙂

      Andy G 30/03/19 8:19 PM Reply


    • Well done Andy. Top stuff. Are you another who’s been crying out for a return of the turf?? 🙂 Great start.

      Josh 31/03/19 2:08 PM Reply


      • On balance, yes.
        But my greatest problem is time or lack of it.
        I did look through the 3.10 Done too and my shortlist consisted of:
        Tommy Taylor
        Upstaging
        Ower Fly
        Naadir

        Upstaging & Tommy are closely matched on their runs at Ascot last September. Upstaging has changed stables and the new trainer hasn’t a good record with newbies.
        Tommy T has run in valuable handicaps throughout 2018 so this is a drop in grade and value.
        Naadir was the winner of this race last year and is only 2lb higher. A threat.
        Ower Fly is handicapped to win and in the correct grade. If James Sullivan didn’t ride like a knitted dolly I’d be more confident.
        So, Tommy T 1pt
        Naadir 1/2 pt
        Ower Fly 1/2 pt

        Andy G 31/03/19 2:48 PM Reply


  • Nice to kick off the new flat season with a winner. Hopefully it continues tomorrow:

    Mutafarrid Doncaster 14:00 1pt e/w 12/1
    Tommy Taylor Doncaster 15:10 1pt e/w 12/1

    nickmazur 30/03/19 7:43 PM Reply


    • Thanks Nick for another good month, managed to get a couple of places so a very profitable day. Cheers

      Chris Sengelow 30/03/19 8:23 PM Reply


    • A professional bettor friend of mine is very keen on Muterfarrid. I will have another look at him

      chubnut 31/03/19 2:22 AM Reply


  • Tip – 2,45 Ascot, Quantamental, 2.5 points each way. 8/1 now on Bet365 and 7/1 generally. Gavin Cromwell brings this one over. Improving with runs and missed Cheltenham to go for something easier. Worth a go at the price.

    Systems selections – Emma Lavelle handicappers 5/1+.
    4.30 Ascot, Junction Fourteen (if it drifts in price from 9/2); 5.50 Ascot, Gunfleet, 6/1 now.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 30/03/19 9:06 PM Reply


    • The systems selections are both 2 points win.

      martin colwell 31/03/19 10:32 AM Reply


    • Quantamental on the drift or what?? Must have had a big night out on Saturday and is on its uppers? Wheelbarrow job if it goes in at current prices.

      martin colwell 31/03/19 12:37 PM Reply


  • today’s selections.
    Ascot.
    2-45. Le Milos 12-1
    4-30. Exitas 9-1
    5-05. Sir Will 14-1
    all 1/2 pt ew
    Doncaster.
    2-00. Capriolette 14-1
    3-10. Foolaad 25-1
    4-20. Falmouth Light 25-1
    all 1/4 pt ew

    Martin Whittle 11/08/19 3:51 PM Reply


    • Nice find Martin

      nickmazur 11/08/19 10:11 PM Reply


  • WHEN TWO TRIBES GO TO WAR
    (the conflict between the left and right hemispheres of the brain)

    So a new flat season begins and with the memory of many gone by, the obvious is to not get excited and start betting anything that you suddenly find has hidden form from previous years which at double figure prices offer easy money and glorious adulation from your fellow successful bettors. However, regardless of this maturity of thought we still struggle with each look at the form book. It seems one minute we are being cautious, questioning the smallest details and then in an instant, boldly deciding to play maximum stakes. While this sort of mental turmoil is more acute at certain times, it’s always there in the background at all times.

    The brains two hemispheres work independently so we cannot make stupid decisions, although some of the bets one sees question this. Unlike limbic thought like walking and chewing that doesn’t need confirmation, any other action requires the left side to agree with the right. ( that’s why anyone with a damaged corpus callosum, the strip that parts the two sides, cannot make a decision even when both sides are healthy) and so the conflict begins. When you decide to have a bet on a race without any focus or deep consideration( form reading) the other side of the brain is under the impression that the decision does not matter whereas an hour of study gives that side input in the outcome and create questions

    Now you at least know why you can have an impulse tenner on a TV race but question having £20 on a well perceived, long thought out bet. To combat this is just a matter of reversing the thought process and ask yourself several times if the impulse bet is justifiable while making light of the well conceived selection. Even calling them bet and selection alters perception. Of course for those who still feel vulnerable after some practice, they can always revert to the back of the balls technic.

    Working example: yesterday in the first race without even looking at the form in any depth I had £15 on a loser. After looking at the 2pm race today for over an hour I am questioning having £30 ew.and I’m the one who is fully aware of the psychology. The hosses form is far superior to any in the race, it has what appears ideal conditions, draw, weight, odds etc. Yet in no time at all, will it be fit ? why did it go for that race last year if the conditions didn’t suit ? etc etc. Decisions are a fine balance of impulse and thoughtfulness and knowing why we feel the way we do helps us make better ones.
    Pepperoni or double cheese ? ( indecisive smiley)

    PS: Will post the selection later after finalising the conflict

    chubnut 11/08/19 9:58 PM Reply


    • “Ah but Sir Chubbynuts” the little boy said. “Isn’t that why we should always bet to level stakes since even the best judges get their staking levels wrong more often than not?” (little boy eager for life knowledge smiley face)

      nickmazur 11/08/19 10:12 PM Reply


      • LOL Level stakes are for level headed people like yourself Nick. Her in doors is getting spoiled rotten today by the saucepan lids while Father’s day is just another day to them. Level stakes wont be enough to ease the resentment and a press up is in order.

        chubnut 11/08/19 10:12 PM Reply


    • SILLY BOYS CLUB RULE No.1 (WELL ONE OF THEM ANYWAY 😉 )
      Never should a bet be that critical that it effects the way you eat !
      Always buy your food first and bet with the remainder !!
      Never let your bet be able to bring you out in a cold sweat or indigestion !!
      You must always be able to enjoy the bet come win draw or lose and be able to burp in the face of whatever is the outcome 😉 !
      DON’T LET THE BOOKIES GRIND YOU DOWN !! ( A bookie loves a desperate man – make no mistake ! )
      and finally ..
      NEVER RUN WHEN YOUR EATING .. ALWAYS LEARN TO EAT AT A WALKING PACE FIRST ….. and build your betting and eating habits up gradually !!
      ahem 🙂
      gb 🙂

      George B 11/08/19 10:12 PM Reply


      • Hi George

        I note the general point you make about not making any bet more than you can afford to lose so it remains a fun pastime
        There is another chain of thought that all bets you put on are risking your hard earned (or otherwise) … therefore every bet placed which loses should be by definition a kick in the solar plexus … I suppose its a question of what you have and what you bet!
        I’ve done the latter in accepting the potential pain and admit it does hurt in every sense

        gilly56 12/08/19 3:50 AM Reply


      • Excellent advice George ( applauding smiley) I’m so happy you and MC allowed me to join the silly boys club ( cheering smiley)

        chubnut 11/08/19 10:12 PM Reply


  • today’s selections.
    Ascot.
    2-45. Le Milos 12-1
    4-30. Exitas 9-1
    5-05. Sir Will 14-1
    all 1/2 pt ew
    Doncaster.
    2-00. Capriolette 14-1
    3-10. Foolaad 25-1
    4-20. Falmouth Light 25-1
    all 1/4 pt ew

    Martin Whittle 31/03/19 2:14 AM Reply


    • Nice find Martin

      nickmazur 31/03/19 3:25 PM Reply


  • WHEN TWO TRIBES GO TO WAR
    (the conflict between the left and right hemispheres of the brain)

    So a new flat season begins and with the memory of many gone by, the obvious is to not get excited and start betting anything that you suddenly find has hidden form from previous years which at double figure prices offer easy money and glorious adulation from your fellow successful bettors. However, regardless of this maturity of thought we still struggle with each look at the form book. It seems one minute we are being cautious, questioning the smallest details and then in an instant, boldly deciding to play maximum stakes. While this sort of mental turmoil is more acute at certain times, it’s always there in the background at all times.

    The brains two hemispheres work independently so we cannot make stupid decisions, although some of the bets one sees question this. Unlike limbic thought like walking and chewing that doesn’t need confirmation, any other action requires the left side to agree with the right. ( that’s why anyone with a damaged corpus callosum, the strip that parts the two sides, cannot make a decision even when both sides are healthy) and so the conflict begins. When you decide to have a bet on a race without any focus or deep consideration( form reading) the other side of the brain is under the impression that the decision does not matter whereas an hour of study gives that side input in the outcome and create questions

    Now you at least know why you can have an impulse tenner on a TV race but question having £20 on a well perceived, long thought out bet. To combat this is just a matter of reversing the thought process and ask yourself several times if the impulse bet is justifiable while making light of the well conceived selection. Even calling them bet and selection alters perception. Of course for those who still feel vulnerable after some practice, they can always revert to the back of the balls technic.

    Working example: yesterday in the first race without even looking at the form in any depth I had £15 on a loser. After looking at the 2pm race today for over an hour I am questioning having £30 ew.and I’m the one who is fully aware of the psychology. The hosses form is far superior to any in the race, it has what appears ideal conditions, draw, weight, odds etc. Yet in no time at all, will it be fit ? why did it go for that race last year if the conditions didn’t suit ? etc etc. Decisions are a fine balance of impulse and thoughtfulness and knowing why we feel the way we do helps us make better ones.
    Pepperoni or double cheese ? ( indecisive smiley)

    PS: Will post the selection later after finalising the conflict

    chubnut 31/03/19 2:18 AM Reply


    • “Ah but Sir Chubbynuts” the little boy said. “Isn’t that why we should always bet to level stakes since even the best judges get their staking levels wrong more often than not?” (little boy eager for life knowledge smiley face)

      nickmazur 31/03/19 8:25 AM Reply


      • LOL Level stakes are for level headed people like yourself Nick. Her in doors is getting spoiled rotten today by the saucepan lids while Father’s day is just another day to them. Level stakes wont be enough to ease the resentment and a press up is in order.

        chubnut 31/03/19 10:59 AM Reply


    • SILLY BOYS CLUB RULE No.1 (WELL ONE OF THEM ANYWAY 😉 )
      Never should a bet be that critical that it effects the way you eat !
      Always buy your food first and bet with the remainder !!
      Never let your bet be able to bring you out in a cold sweat or indigestion !!
      You must always be able to enjoy the bet come win draw or lose and be able to burp in the face of whatever is the outcome 😉 !
      DON’T LET THE BOOKIES GRIND YOU DOWN !! ( A bookie loves a desperate man – make no mistake ! )
      and finally ..
      NEVER RUN WHEN YOUR EATING .. ALWAYS LEARN TO EAT AT A WALKING PACE FIRST ….. and build your betting and eating habits up gradually !!
      ahem 🙂
      gb 🙂

      George B 31/03/19 9:55 AM Reply


      • What a great slogan that is:”RTP: burping in the face of the bookies”! Josh, you can use that on the next publicity drive for a small royalty 🙂

        Mark Curtis 31/03/19 11:03 AM Reply


      • Hi George

        I note the general point you make about not making any bet more than you can afford to lose so it remains a fun pastime
        There is another chain of thought that all bets you put on are risking your hard earned (or otherwise) … therefore every bet placed which loses should be by definition a kick in the solar plexus … I suppose its a question of what you have and what you bet!
        I’ve done the latter in accepting the potential pain and admit it does hurt in every sense

        gilly56 31/03/19 11:03 AM Reply


      • Excellent advice George ( applauding smiley) I’m so happy you and MC allowed me to join the silly boys club ( cheering smiley)

        chubnut 31/03/19 11:12 AM Reply


  • Just selections today and i really wouldn`t put that much on…
    I`m under the weather, bubble has well and truly burst and i will be on hot toddy`s from the moment i can get a rest…damn pesky Mothers day dinner to do…grumble…moan…sassafrazzin…
    14:00 Doncaster
    PORTLEDGE 1/2 pt e/w 20/1
    CAPRIOLETTE 1/2 pt e/w 14/1
    15:10 Doncaster
    LOUIE DE PALMA 1/2 pt e/w 16/1
    OWER FLY 1/2 pt e/w 25/1
    16:30 Ascot
    BIGBADJOHN 1pt win 13/2 sky/vc
    UHLAN BUTE pt win 12/1 hills

    Hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound, good luck with all your selections and mind how you go!

    Stewart 11/08/19 9:57 PM Reply


  • SILLY BOYS CLUB MESSAGE :
    FOR INTEREST ONLY :
    Just trying out a “work in progress” System : CLASS DROP OUTS ( All these lowered in class today) :
    2.00 Doncaster 13 Prevent Doyle, James Williams, Ian
    2.00 Doncaster 11 Right Action Sousa, Silvestre De Fahey, R A 4.20 Doncaster 8 Bacacarat (IRE) Sousa, Silvestre De Balding, A M
    4.55 Doncaster 3 Good Birthday (IRE) Sousa, Silvestre De Balding, A 4.55 Doncaster 9 Mrs Hoo (IRE) Hanagan, Paul Fahey, R A

    This worked really well over the jumps … now trying to see how it works on the flat ??

    Happy Mothers Day !
    gb 🙂

    George B 11/08/19 9:57 PM Reply


    • Egad G, you were up early doors! Will track with interest.

      Good luck 🙂

      Mark Curtis 11/08/19 10:11 PM Reply


      • Mark, you had another winner last night didn’t you, after I wrote the above in section 4… ?? I’m now on the look for when George throws up his AW system bets, and then you follow up with a ‘horse X is on my list of fancies today’ – early days, but you’ve had a good week on that front I think??! Well done. True teamwork on the sand.

        Josh 11/08/19 10:12 PM Reply


        • Hi Josh, yes we had Awa Bomber overnight after a cracking week. Without this forum GB and I would never have got together to look at the AW, so thanks for providing the opportunity.

          Who knows how it will pan out but it will be fun seeing 🙂

          Mark Curtis 12/08/19 3:50 AM Reply


          • here hear hear !! …………….. my mum always said two half wits have a good chance of becoming a complete wit ( or she might have said .. “twit ” ?

            quiet mums day for me
            gl/gb 🙂
            Newcastlle tomoz !! 🙂

            George B 12/08/19 9:29 AM Reply


    • Classy George.
      Another winner thanks again, and an out of form class drop to some not to you thank goodness, and trainers keep dropping them to the class they can win at!!! amazing, smiley faces.
      You said that this method was successful last year any chance of you revealing the figures.
      Keep them coming George!
      Cheers
      Colin

      cleafe 11/08/19 10:22 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    D 2.00 – Esprit de Corps on 7th run inc AW, however 1st run on turf ?? @ 7
    D 3.10 – Daniels Flyer on 7th run @ 16
    Festival
    D 3.10 – Green Power on 1st and 2nd run @ 12
    3m+
    A 3.20 – Favorito Bucks on 2nd run @ 6/4
    A 4.20 – Regal Flow on 5th and 7th run @ 33
    A 5.05 – Ballyheigue Bay on 6th run @ 16
    GL

    Titus 11/08/19 9:58 PM Reply


  • just the one dart today

    ascot
    2-45 praecepts

    Warren Bottomley 11/08/19 9:58 PM Reply


    • Good luck Warren – i’d like to think if he repeats that Festival run he takes this – not sure he’d even need to improve by much – a chance that has bottomed him out, but he prefers better ground and was bang there a couple out. I think this track/finish will suit him, we shall see!

      Josh 11/08/19 10:11 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    No bet today, yesterday turned a miserable month into a joyous month with 3 winners from 5 at 8/1, 7/1 and 7/2 all SP, know now whats been missing got home from town at 4 am Saturday morning felt rough for hardly had a drink for 10 weeks, taxi already booked for Friday!!!!

    ELITE BETS
    4.20 Doncaster Armandihan BOG 33/1
    4.20 Doncaster Mapped BOG 20/1
    5.05 Ascot Unblinking BOG 15/2

    NEW METHOD
    No bet
    Colin

    cleafe 11/08/19 10:11 PM Reply


    • Great stuff Colin, well done indeed 🙂 Just about to post a brief note to you in a couple of mins on the Free thread.

      John Unitt 11/08/19 10:11 PM Reply


      • Yes, you are on a roll Colin.Any chance you can go drinking every night? 🙂

        Mark Curtis 11/08/19 10:12 PM Reply


  • There will be no bets from me today.

    Tim Hanson 11/08/19 3:51 PM Reply


  • Nothing from me today,

    Duty calls taking Mothering Law out for lunch.
    So ends a miserable month for my three a day picks.

    Onwards to the flat!!!

    G.L.

    solentmagpie 11/08/19 3:51 PM Reply


  • with no watering at Donny any thoughts I had have been scuppered. However, it provides EXITAS 4.30 Ascot with favoured ground and a return to form. Around the 9/1 mark on the machine. Each way may be tempting fate but I’m determined to press up on Mothers day.

    chubnut 11/08/19 3:51 PM Reply


  • Just selections today and i really wouldn`t put that much on…
    I`m under the weather, bubble has well and truly burst and i will be on hot toddy`s from the moment i can get a rest…damn pesky Mothers day dinner to do…grumble…moan…sassafrazzin…
    14:00 Doncaster
    PORTLEDGE 1/2 pt e/w 20/1
    CAPRIOLETTE 1/2 pt e/w 14/1
    15:10 Doncaster
    LOUIE DE PALMA 1/2 pt e/w 16/1
    OWER FLY 1/2 pt e/w 25/1
    16:30 Ascot
    BIGBADJOHN 1pt win 13/2 sky/vc
    UHLAN BUTE pt win 12/1 hills

    Hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound, good luck with all your selections and mind how you go!

    Stewart 31/03/19 7:50 AM Reply


  • Lambourn Trainers
    4.30 Ascot Josses Hill BOG 11/2
    5.05 Ascot Kings Ryde BOG 5/4 Nicky Henderson said Massive Chance 5/4 a little skinny but 100% on returns provided it wins, which banks offer returns of this nature for £10, and their high interest portfolios come with mega risk!
    Colin.

    cleafe 11/08/19 3:51 PM Reply


  • SILLY BOYS CLUB MESSAGE :
    FOR INTEREST ONLY :
    Just trying out a “work in progress” System : CLASS DROP OUTS ( All these lowered in class today) :
    2.00 Doncaster 13 Prevent Doyle, James Williams, Ian
    2.00 Doncaster 11 Right Action Sousa, Silvestre De Fahey, R A 4.20 Doncaster 8 Bacacarat (IRE) Sousa, Silvestre De Balding, A M
    4.55 Doncaster 3 Good Birthday (IRE) Sousa, Silvestre De Balding, A 4.55 Doncaster 9 Mrs Hoo (IRE) Hanagan, Paul Fahey, R A

    This worked really well over the jumps … now trying to see how it works on the flat ??

    Happy Mothers Day !
    gb 🙂

    George B 31/03/19 8:29 AM Reply


    • Egad G, you were up early doors! Will track with interest.

      Good luck 🙂

      Mark Curtis 31/03/19 11:05 AM Reply


      • Mark, you had another winner last night didn’t you, after I wrote the above in section 4… ?? I’m now on the look for when George throws up his AW system bets, and then you follow up with a ‘horse X is on my list of fancies today’ – early days, but you’ve had a good week on that front I think??! Well done. True teamwork on the sand.

        Josh 31/03/19 11:34 AM Reply


        • Hi Josh, yes we had Awa Bomber overnight after a cracking week. Without this forum GB and I would never have got together to look at the AW, so thanks for providing the opportunity.

          Who knows how it will pan out but it will be fun seeing 🙂

          Mark Curtis 31/03/19 11:44 AM Reply


          • here hear hear !! …………….. my mum always said two half wits have a good chance of becoming a complete wit ( or she might have said .. “twit ” ?

            quiet mums day for me
            gl/gb 🙂
            Newcastlle tomoz !! 🙂

            George B 31/03/19 12:24 PM Reply


            • Think your mum was very wise 🙂

              Have a relaxing day so we’re ready to burp in the face of the bookies at Newcastle tomorrow!

              Mark Curtis 31/03/19 12:38 PM Reply


    • Classy George.
      Another winner thanks again, and an out of form class drop to some not to you thank goodness, and trainers keep dropping them to the class they can win at!!! amazing, smiley faces.
      You said that this method was successful last year any chance of you revealing the figures.
      Keep them coming George!
      Cheers
      Colin

      cleafe 31/03/19 2:30 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    D 2.00 – Esprit de Corps on 7th run inc AW, however 1st run on turf ?? @ 7
    D 3.10 – Daniels Flyer on 7th run @ 16
    Festival
    D 3.10 – Green Power on 1st and 2nd run @ 12
    3m+
    A 3.20 – Favorito Bucks on 2nd run @ 6/4
    A 4.20 – Regal Flow on 5th and 7th run @ 33
    A 5.05 – Ballyheigue Bay on 6th run @ 16
    GL

    Titus 31/03/19 8:53 AM Reply


  • Just looked through the Brett Love results spreadsheet. It appears that he bases all his profits on advised prices which to me is awful. If a tipster expects his customers to survive on advised prices which are never always achievable and not use level stakes then it’s going to be very tough to turn a profit. Maybe he does turn a profit to SP but the spreadsheet is so badly set up ( not a formula in sight ) I can’t be bothered to re-write it to find out. If he were to proof his results on racing index or somewhere like that it would be much clearer. Definitely one to avoid for now for me. Up your game Mr Love!

    handbag 11/08/19 3:51 PM Reply


    • I get your general points but in this instance, because of his mo, I’ve no issue with the advised prices element. He’s not tipping in a week day class 6 AW race, advising stand out price at 6pm the evening before. The focus is mainly on big field and c3/2 Saturday/weekend /Festival /big flat meeting handicaps where liquidity is solid esp on the machine and getting decent stakes on is fine. Many of the emails /selections are sent out on the morning, a few Friday evening before a big Sat. From my experience prices hold fine.
      Anyone who turns a decent profit to BFSP level stakes has the game nailed but those folk are hard to find.
      Anyway you can make your own judgement with the evidence available and that’s the whole point 🙂
      Staking is debatable area also. I’m of the 1 point level stakes school of thought and to be consistent but that’s because I’m rubbish at judging when to say do 2 point bets.
      If a tipster /professional has a consistent method of knowing when to double stakes etc then good on them, and that is an edge. Many pro punters have a scale, often betting more on bigger odds /if horse drifts etc as they trust their tissues.
      I know that’s separate from judging a service. I may go through that spreadsheet and work it out roughly to 1 point win. But it’s a 0.5 to 2 point scale I thought. Not as like results are masked by a 5 point win bet on. 33s shot say.
      On the evidence in live play for over year I clearly don’t think it’s one to avoid but clearly we differ on that! 🙂

      Josh 11/08/19 10:12 PM Reply


      • You can still make a profit at BFSP from low grade A/W racing tipped at 6pm the night before, so I’m told 😉

        traf69 11/08/19 10:12 PM Reply


        • haha, well you’re doing well if you can! You know what I mean with that point… advise a 16s shot available with 1 firm early evening, that goes in 10 mins, and results are declared to that price rather than the generally available 12s etc!

          Josh 12/08/19 3:50 AM Reply


          • I do know what you’re getting at.

            I’m talking about 4/1 and shorter generally, mind.

            traf69 12/08/19 9:29 AM Reply


    • Hi Handbag, seems rather strange hi to an handbag!!!
      Thanks for the post and your words are very relevant for why i put up SP and BOG alongside my bets to show how difficult it is to make a profit at SP.
      Sadly for many tipsters recording at SP would show in most cases only a small profit and this would not attract new subscribers for what some of them charge.
      On RTP the tipsters who tip only go for Early Prices bar for Nick who records at BFEXSP and myself cannot think of anyone else who does this on the site.
      Chubnut finds it hard to understand why i put up SP and BOG and only the other day made reference to BOG again!!! for me clear as a bell called Honesty and transparency afraid not many tipsters in the real world have this.
      Request can you drop the handbag,BOOM,BOOM.
      Colin.

      cleafe 11/08/19 10:12 PM Reply


      • Hipster, you forgot to mention to briefcase the dreaded 100 pt bank. ( expectation of fun smiley)

        chubnut 12/08/19 3:50 AM Reply


        • Hipsters have leather branded man bags!

          martin colwell 12/08/19 9:29 AM Reply


        • Carry my own money, have a minion for that, don’t we all!!!
          Colin

          cleafe 12/08/19 9:29 AM Reply


      • I don’t get all this nonsense.

        There are two sides to this debate, one valid, the other I can’t get my head around…

        Firstly, clearly the idea of trusting the tips, and horses being available at general prices you can get, or indeed close to, and not a case where prices collapse and prices cannot be obtained – that is always a valid concern/question. I’m not sure profit to SP is a good guide as such. The point is, plenty of these services that have been around for a while (and there are some good ones who have been, and keep going year on year) would not exist if the customer base couldn’t get on – the market will work just fine in that regard. I don’t knowing promote anyone who’s results I don’t think are legit, and obtainable, and often enough (as with BL) know the tipster, or those who help run the service (marketing/admin etc).
        I do think it’s important to differentiate between weekday lower class race markets, and big handicaps/weekend racing.

        Secondly… there can’t be many who make a profit to SP, consistently, over a long period of time? One year or two isn’t a long period of time, given no. bets etc. BFSP is the truest reflection we have of actual chance – it’s the fairest indicator we have of the price the market thinks the horse should be. So, while in a short time frame betting to BFSP will work, and maybe over 200/400/600 bets it may work, but to do so forever more just won’t in the long term, as, you know, you’re not getting value and beating the true price.
        Now, clearly some are going to target and do well in races where the market is wrong more often than not? Playing BFSP in big handicaps for example may work.

        However, surely the best way, if you have no accounts, is to try and take a price on the machine, as close to the advised price as possible. We should all be following people who we think consistently beat the market price over time- hence why they are any good

        Also, if a tipster is successful to BFSP or SP, they will naturally attract more customers. Depending on that customer base or the amount bet, said service could affect BFSP in target races, and for example, and that BFSP reduces over time.

        So, they go from being profitable at BFSP to not very profitable at all, but their approach to tipping/success to early odds, is the same.

        For me the key is the ability to get on at or near to advised price. For some, restricted only to the exchanges, (albeit we could probably all go into shops if we had to, unless we had a known ‘face’!) then it could be in time that playing in the big handicaps/g1 races is the way forward, as only place you can get matched at good odds/stakes.

        However, someone not declaring to SP or whatever isn’t always a sign of skulduggery, or the fact they are crap. If anyone is any good, and/or has a large following, i just don’t know how winning long term to BFSP is possible. Tim isn’t BFSP, for example, in the sense he has an advised minimum price. It’s still a value call. Betting to BFSP/SP, is hoping that the market will get the true price wrong, plenty of times. That seems dangerous to me. You must try and take a price close to or on advised price, given that whoever you are following deems that as value – if you don’t have bookie accounts/bog. There are many tipsters where I suspect if you got 20% below advised price, consistently, you’d still do very well.

        Anyway, they are two distinct points. No one (who charges) should be tipping at prices, and declaring them, that are not around 45-60 mins after posting IMO. Had Loose Chips won (he’s still running) he’d have been declared at 14s, as that price was around for 5+ hours, 16s didn’t last an hour I don’t think.

        Josh

        Josh 11/08/19 10:12 PM Reply


        • Profit to SP is not a good guide then why do bookmakers put you on restrictions for constantly beating the price, they know you will struggle to make a profit at SP in most cases, so anyone who can make a profit at SP are good then why do tipsters not use it.
          These are my experiences what i have come across in my life, and try to pass on so others do not make the same mistakes.
          Josh please contact 5 tipsters will give you two Steve Lewis Hamilton and Henry Rix and ask these 5 to send you their results for the past two years, and you will receive nothing, SLH sent me a list of a few winners but certainly not the full results.
          Whatever it is with tipsters people appear to put their trust in them with little or no research,and i am not talking about the ones who you promote for has we know your honesty and integrity is without doubt, and years ago i did, so as i say talking from experience.
          Timeform are one of the largest companies who use SP alongside their advised prices and they are very brave in doing it, cannot think of any of the large established ones who do.
          If this is nonsense then wait till your accounts are closed then please come back and say its nonsense, yes i look at it all from a different view point, for at this moment in time you have not experienced.
          Colins bets would say 90% plus beat the bookmakers price, and Ken Mckenzie records my bets and sure he could confirm the 90% or there about, if you are constantly beating SP and making a good profit over a year or so your accounts will be closed, it was between 5 and 8 years for them to close me down after taking up betting seriously, and the first one was the punters best pals PP, best pals according to their adverts only whilst you are losing, all bookmakers ads should have mugs only.
          Anyway we will differ on SP but for me it is very important in results.
          Cheers
          Colin

          cleafe 12/08/19 3:50 AM Reply


          • We are on the same page as to the importance of beating SP! We are all buggered long term if we don’t do that IMO, as even if you are doing it there will be a time when that edge soon goes – beating SP, or betting to SP/BFSP is an even finer game of margins.
            My point was it’s use as a valid way (and the only way) of judging performance and whether anyone is worth following or not. Logically in my mind, if someone is successful at SP, and then loads of people start following etc, over time they may be less so, or the market will iron out that SP edge etc. i could be totally wrong there mind. Always possible.

            Of those you follow on the exchanges, do you try and get nearest price? Say Nick’s tips, do you look at price tipped and try and match close to it, knowing full well he’s a fine value judge, or bet everything to BFSP? Taking price when you can is probably better i’d have thought but maybe talking nonsense there.

            Josh 12/08/19 9:29 AM Reply


        • I came across BL in the past. I took a 14 day free trial once. The thing that stopped me wasn’t not getting on at advised prices , it was the ludicrous money he wanted each month to be a member.

          stanmellor 12/08/19 3:50 AM Reply


          • Oh i agree, the 59.99 was silly imo, far too steep, the 39.99 offer was better, the 179 for the flat season through to mid November better still. that’s just about manageable if min £10 stakes, but at original monthly cost it’s more of a high rollers service really.

            Josh 12/08/19 9:29 AM Reply


  • just the one dart today

    ascot
    2-45 praecepts

    Warren Bottomley 31/03/19 9:39 AM Reply


    • Good luck Warren – i’d like to think if he repeats that Festival run he takes this – not sure he’d even need to improve by much – a chance that has bottomed him out, but he prefers better ground and was bang there a couple out. I think this track/finish will suit him, we shall see!

      Josh 31/03/19 11:35 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    No bet today, yesterday turned a miserable month into a joyous month with 3 winners from 5 at 8/1, 7/1 and 7/2 all SP, know now whats been missing got home from town at 4 am Saturday morning felt rough for hardly had a drink for 10 weeks, taxi already booked for Friday!!!!

    ELITE BETS
    4.20 Doncaster Armandihan BOG 33/1
    4.20 Doncaster Mapped BOG 20/1
    5.05 Ascot Unblinking BOG 15/2

    NEW METHOD
    No bet
    Colin

    cleafe 31/03/19 10:10 AM Reply


    • Great stuff Colin, well done indeed 🙂 Just about to post a brief note to you in a couple of mins on the Free thread.

      John Unitt 31/03/19 12:04 PM Reply


      • Yes, you are on a roll Colin.Any chance you can go drinking every night? 🙂

        Mark Curtis 31/03/19 1:15 PM Reply


  • There will be no bets from me today.

    Tim Hanson 31/03/19 10:29 AM Reply


  • Nothing from me today,

    Duty calls taking Mothering Law out for lunch.
    So ends a miserable month for my three a day picks.

    Onwards to the flat!!!

    G.L.

    solentmagpie 31/03/19 11:17 AM Reply


  • with no watering at Donny any thoughts I had have been scuppered. However, it provides EXITAS 4.30 Ascot with favoured ground and a return to form. Around the 9/1 mark on the machine. Each way may be tempting fate but I’m determined to press up on Mothers day.

    chubnut 31/03/19 11:24 AM Reply


  • Lambourn Trainers
    4.30 Ascot Josses Hill BOG 11/2
    5.05 Ascot Kings Ryde BOG 5/4 Nicky Henderson said Massive Chance 5/4 a little skinny but 100% on returns provided it wins, which banks offer returns of this nature for £10, and their high interest portfolios come with mega risk!
    Colin.

    cleafe 31/03/19 12:04 PM Reply


  • Just looked through the Brett Love results spreadsheet. It appears that he bases all his profits on advised prices which to me is awful. If a tipster expects his customers to survive on advised prices which are never always achievable and not use level stakes then it’s going to be very tough to turn a profit. Maybe he does turn a profit to SP but the spreadsheet is so badly set up ( not a formula in sight ) I can’t be bothered to re-write it to find out. If he were to proof his results on racing index or somewhere like that it would be much clearer. Definitely one to avoid for now for me. Up your game Mr Love!

    handbag 31/03/19 12:56 PM Reply


    • I get your general points but in this instance, because of his mo, I’ve no issue with the advised prices element. He’s not tipping in a week day class 6 AW race, advising stand out price at 6pm the evening before. The focus is mainly on big field and c3/2 Saturday/weekend /Festival /big flat meeting handicaps where liquidity is solid esp on the machine and getting decent stakes on is fine. Many of the emails /selections are sent out on the morning, a few Friday evening before a big Sat. From my experience prices hold fine.
      Anyone who turns a decent profit to BFSP level stakes has the game nailed but those folk are hard to find.
      Anyway you can make your own judgement with the evidence available and that’s the whole point 🙂
      Staking is debatable area also. I’m of the 1 point level stakes school of thought and to be consistent but that’s because I’m rubbish at judging when to say do 2 point bets.
      If a tipster /professional has a consistent method of knowing when to double stakes etc then good on them, and that is an edge. Many pro punters have a scale, often betting more on bigger odds /if horse drifts etc as they trust their tissues.
      I know that’s separate from judging a service. I may go through that spreadsheet and work it out roughly to 1 point win. But it’s a 0.5 to 2 point scale I thought. Not as like results are masked by a 5 point win bet on. 33s shot say.
      On the evidence in live play for over year I clearly don’t think it’s one to avoid but clearly we differ on that! 🙂

      Josh 31/03/19 1:54 PM Reply


      • You can still make a profit at BFSP from low grade A/W racing tipped at 6pm the night before, so I’m told 😉

        traf69 31/03/19 7:46 PM Reply


        • haha, well you’re doing well if you can! You know what I mean with that point… advise a 16s shot available with 1 firm early evening, that goes in 10 mins, and results are declared to that price rather than the generally available 12s etc!

          Josh 31/03/19 8:00 PM Reply


          • I do know what you’re getting at.

            I’m talking about 4/1 and shorter generally, mind.

            traf69 01/04/19 1:39 AM Reply


    • Hi Handbag, seems rather strange hi to an handbag!!!
      Thanks for the post and your words are very relevant for why i put up SP and BOG alongside my bets to show how difficult it is to make a profit at SP.
      Sadly for many tipsters recording at SP would show in most cases only a small profit and this would not attract new subscribers for what some of them charge.
      On RTP the tipsters who tip only go for Early Prices bar for Nick who records at BFEXSP and myself cannot think of anyone else who does this on the site.
      Chubnut finds it hard to understand why i put up SP and BOG and only the other day made reference to BOG again!!! for me clear as a bell called Honesty and transparency afraid not many tipsters in the real world have this.
      Request can you drop the handbag,BOOM,BOOM.
      Colin.

      cleafe 31/03/19 2:11 PM Reply


      • Hipster, you forgot to mention to briefcase the dreaded 100 pt bank. ( expectation of fun smiley)

        chubnut 31/03/19 3:50 PM Reply


        • Hipsters have leather branded man bags!

          martin colwell 31/03/19 4:21 PM Reply


        • Carry my own money, have a minion for that, don’t we all!!!
          Colin

          cleafe 31/03/19 4:50 PM Reply


      • I don’t get all this nonsense.

        There are two sides to this debate, one valid, the other I can’t get my head around…

        Firstly, clearly the idea of trusting the tips, and horses being available at general prices you can get, or indeed close to, and not a case where prices collapse and prices cannot be obtained – that is always a valid concern/question. I’m not sure profit to SP is a good guide as such. The point is, plenty of these services that have been around for a while (and there are some good ones who have been, and keep going year on year) would not exist if the customer base couldn’t get on – the market will work just fine in that regard. I don’t knowing promote anyone who’s results I don’t think are legit, and obtainable, and often enough (as with BL) know the tipster, or those who help run the service (marketing/admin etc).
        I do think it’s important to differentiate between weekday lower class race markets, and big handicaps/weekend racing.

        Secondly… there can’t be many who make a profit to SP, consistently, over a long period of time? One year or two isn’t a long period of time, given no. bets etc. BFSP is the truest reflection we have of actual chance – it’s the fairest indicator we have of the price the market thinks the horse should be. So, while in a short time frame betting to BFSP will work, and maybe over 200/400/600 bets it may work, but to do so forever more just won’t in the long term, as, you know, you’re not getting value and beating the true price.
        Now, clearly some are going to target and do well in races where the market is wrong more often than not? Playing BFSP in big handicaps for example may work.

        However, surely the best way, if you have no accounts, is to try and take a price on the machine, as close to the advised price as possible. We should all be following people who we think consistently beat the market price over time- hence why they are any good

        Also, if a tipster is successful to BFSP or SP, they will naturally attract more customers. Depending on that customer base or the amount bet, said service could affect BFSP in target races, and for example, and that BFSP reduces over time.

        So, they go from being profitable at BFSP to not very profitable at all, but their approach to tipping/success to early odds, is the same.

        For me the key is the ability to get on at or near to advised price. For some, restricted only to the exchanges, (albeit we could probably all go into shops if we had to, unless we had a known ‘face’!) then it could be in time that playing in the big handicaps/g1 races is the way forward, as only place you can get matched at good odds/stakes.

        However, someone not declaring to SP or whatever isn’t always a sign of skulduggery, or the fact they are crap. If anyone is any good, and/or has a large following, i just don’t know how winning long term to BFSP is possible. Tim isn’t BFSP, for example, in the sense he has an advised minimum price. It’s still a value call. Betting to BFSP/SP, is hoping that the market will get the true price wrong, plenty of times. That seems dangerous to me. You must try and take a price close to or on advised price, given that whoever you are following deems that as value – if you don’t have bookie accounts/bog. There are many tipsters where I suspect if you got 20% below advised price, consistently, you’d still do very well.

        Anyway, they are two distinct points. No one (who charges) should be tipping at prices, and declaring them, that are not around 45-60 mins after posting IMO. Had Loose Chips won (he’s still running) he’d have been declared at 14s, as that price was around for 5+ hours, 16s didn’t last an hour I don’t think.

        Josh

        Josh 31/03/19 5:40 PM Reply


        • Profit to SP is not a good guide then why do bookmakers put you on restrictions for constantly beating the price, they know you will struggle to make a profit at SP in most cases, so anyone who can make a profit at SP are good then why do tipsters not use it.
          These are my experiences what i have come across in my life, and try to pass on so others do not make the same mistakes.
          Josh please contact 5 tipsters will give you two Steve Lewis Hamilton and Henry Rix and ask these 5 to send you their results for the past two years, and you will receive nothing, SLH sent me a list of a few winners but certainly not the full results.
          Whatever it is with tipsters people appear to put their trust in them with little or no research,and i am not talking about the ones who you promote for has we know your honesty and integrity is without doubt, and years ago i did, so as i say talking from experience.
          Timeform are one of the largest companies who use SP alongside their advised prices and they are very brave in doing it, cannot think of any of the large established ones who do.
          If this is nonsense then wait till your accounts are closed then please come back and say its nonsense, yes i look at it all from a different view point, for at this moment in time you have not experienced.
          Colins bets would say 90% plus beat the bookmakers price, and Ken Mckenzie records my bets and sure he could confirm the 90% or there about, if you are constantly beating SP and making a good profit over a year or so your accounts will be closed, it was between 5 and 8 years for them to close me down after taking up betting seriously, and the first one was the punters best pals PP, best pals according to their adverts only whilst you are losing, all bookmakers ads should have mugs only.
          Anyway we will differ on SP but for me it is very important in results.
          Cheers
          Colin

          cleafe 31/03/19 7:08 PM Reply


          • We are on the same page as to the importance of beating SP! We are all buggered long term if we don’t do that IMO, as even if you are doing it there will be a time when that edge soon goes – beating SP, or betting to SP/BFSP is an even finer game of margins.
            My point was it’s use as a valid way (and the only way) of judging performance and whether anyone is worth following or not. Logically in my mind, if someone is successful at SP, and then loads of people start following etc, over time they may be less so, or the market will iron out that SP edge etc. i could be totally wrong there mind. Always possible.

            Of those you follow on the exchanges, do you try and get nearest price? Say Nick’s tips, do you look at price tipped and try and match close to it, knowing full well he’s a fine value judge, or bet everything to BFSP? Taking price when you can is probably better i’d have thought but maybe talking nonsense there.

            Josh 31/03/19 7:47 PM Reply


            • Some good points Josh, it used to be great when click on the button at 10 am take the BOG price and forget about racing and go out for the day, now it is a pain in the bum.
              Have put up my results for March and the difference for BOG against SP is over 200%, just trying to show how difficult when the bookmakers close you down, and it will happen to all when you are successful.
              Unibet advert over 14 million customers world wide so this year they close 100,000 winning accounts, there are more new 18 year olds future losers joining in the same year, afraid the accountants will always close successful accounts and in there position so would i.
              Colin

              cleafe 31/03/19 8:15 PM Reply


        • I came across BL in the past. I took a 14 day free trial once. The thing that stopped me wasn’t not getting on at advised prices , it was the ludicrous money he wanted each month to be a member.

          stanmellor 31/03/19 7:10 PM Reply


          • Oh i agree, the 59.99 was silly imo, far too steep, the 39.99 offer was better, the 179 for the flat season through to mid November better still. that’s just about manageable if min £10 stakes, but at original monthly cost it’s more of a high rollers service really.

            Josh 31/03/19 7:44 PM Reply


            • Yes, George B and I will certainly pitch our Silly Boys AW service lower than that (hysterical laughing yet despairing smiley)

              Mark Curtis 31/03/19 8:29 PM Reply


  • I see Brett Love has just tipped Stonific at Donny, 14/1 SP, 20/1 this morning.

    Mark Curtis 11/08/19 10:11 PM Reply


    • Indeed, and that 20s was around in a few places for ages, as was 18s 🙂

      Josh 11/08/19 10:12 PM Reply


  • Distance, the importance of proven distance for a horse.
    We had a filly called Quite Victory, and she was the only horse Dai ever mentioned about me buying or owning a share, you will make money, however declined for owners who he ever lost was mainly over gambling and the horse losing, and QV did make money placed only, i had shares with other trainers, and believe that by never having a horse in training with Dai have kept our friendship for 35 years, do not gamble on his horses even in his hey day.
    QV he thought 6 furlongs was her distance and one night 6 lengths clear entering the final furlong, had won the race caught on line and she never won over 6 furlongs, other than once on a stiff course, up to 7 furlongs did not have the stamina to see out 7 furlongs, so even 1/2 furlong can make all the difference.
    Knowing the Northern courses, i suggest running 6 furlong at Beverley or Pontefract with their stiff up hill finish, she ran at Pontefract if i remember and she managed to win, and within a week or so she was sold.
    Never write off the importance of distance.
    Colin

    cleafe 11/08/19 3:51 PM Reply


  • Put your feet up Josh and have a drink. Its been a busy week

    chubnut 11/08/19 10:11 PM Reply


  • I see Brett Love has just tipped Stonific at Donny, 14/1 SP, 20/1 this morning.

    Mark Curtis 31/03/19 5:15 PM Reply


    • Indeed, and that 20s was around in a few places for ages, as was 18s 🙂

      Josh 31/03/19 5:20 PM Reply


  • Distance, the importance of proven distance for a horse.
    We had a filly called Quite Victory, and she was the only horse Dai ever mentioned about me buying or owning a share, you will make money, however declined for owners who he ever lost was mainly over gambling and the horse losing, and QV did make money placed only, i had shares with other trainers, and believe that by never having a horse in training with Dai have kept our friendship for 35 years, do not gamble on his horses even in his hey day.
    QV he thought 6 furlongs was her distance and one night 6 lengths clear entering the final furlong, had won the race caught on line and she never won over 6 furlongs, other than once on a stiff course, up to 7 furlongs did not have the stamina to see out 7 furlongs, so even 1/2 furlong can make all the difference.
    Knowing the Northern courses, i suggest running 6 furlong at Beverley or Pontefract with their stiff up hill finish, she ran at Pontefract if i remember and she managed to win, and within a week or so she was sold.
    Never write off the importance of distance.
    Colin

    cleafe 31/03/19 5:17 PM Reply


  • Put your feet up Josh and have a drink. Its been a busy week

    chubnut 31/03/19 6:50 PM Reply


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