From the members’ post…
Saturday’s Feature Flat Handicap Stats/Trends Analysis
3.35 Donc – The Lincoln Handicap
Trainers (1/1, +9)
I’m experimenting here and that 1/1 figure above is from Naas last Sunday… but I try and use as few stats/trends as possible to narrow a race down, and the initial stats I used left 10. I thought i’d experiment by simply listing those from that list of 10 whose trainers had won the race previously. From last Sunday’s Naas long list there was only one, and he won. So, for this race…
- Safe Voyage
Longlist (1/7,3p, +3)
Simply the horses fired out by the 10/10 stats, of which this time there are x8 10/10 stats, leaving a ‘long list’ of 6. In some races I may have to use 9/10 stats etc to get a long list of 6-8 max.
Saltonstall 10/1 / Kynren 9/1 / South Seas 12/1 / Humbert 11/1/ Beringer 16/1/ Raydiance 40/1
Shortlist (0/4,1p, -4)
There are 4 further stats i’ve used as a guide, ‘Not’ drawn 4-8, 2-7 runs in handicaps, 0-5 wins in handicaps, had ran a track LTO that’s been a guide to winners of this. Two of them – South Seas, and Raydiance, are 4/4 on those, and thus 12/12 on my ‘stats profile’ of sorts.
My shortlist of 4, to use/ignore how you please…
NOTE: The above is a bit experimental but I want to see how those 3 sections (Trainers/Long List/My Shortlist) perform over the Flat season, from a systematic perspective. None of those approaches may work in that way, but if nothing else hopefully some useful info to use in your own punting.