Members Daily Post: 30/03/19 (complete)

section 1 (complete), test zone, Lincoln test tip + notes, + trainer pointers etc

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS 

Uttoxeter

2.10 –

Glimpse of Gold   (micro dist)  w1 H1 I3 11/2 

Kereman   (HcH, m dist)  ES+ 10/3 S3A 

3.20 – Cabaret Queen   (nov HcCh) 14  ES+ G3 13/2 S3A S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

3.55 –

Renwick   (HcH, m TJC) 14  w2  ES+ I1 4/1 S3A 

Land League   (m age) 9/1 

4.30 – Moonlight Dancer   (HcH, m TJC) 14 ES+ 7/1 S3A 

5.05 – Zamparelli   (m TJC) 14  w1  ES+ H1 9/4 S3A 

 

Stratford  

(2018 summer stats – yet to do 2019 Summer Jumps)

3.05 –

Roc D’Apsis   (m class) 14 H3 I3 4/1 

Viens Chercher   IHcCh, m TJC) G3 11/2 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

4.15 –

Sandy Boy   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 4/1 S3A 

Cintex   (HcH) G3 25/1 S1 S2A 

4.50 –

Blairs Cove   (m class) 6/1 

Keep Moving   (all Hc’s,HcCh) 14,30   ES+ H3 I3 G3 2/1 S3A# S4

 

FLAT (new stats) 

Doncaster 

2.25 –

Calling Out   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 40/1 S3A 

Fake News   (m age) 30 40/1 

3.35 – Wahash   (all Hc’s) 30 50/1 

5.20 – Central City   (m dist) H3 I3  11/2 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: +2.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 3/52,16p, -23)

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Flat Big Race Tips (TEST)

3.35 Doncaster

South Seas – 1 point EW – 14/1 (1/5, 5 places) general

that’s all for this race, write up below… please note the words TEST! 🙂 

 

Daily Tips

None on Sat.

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The Lincoln 

I thought i’d get off the fence given the stats/trends work below. I hope that one of those 3 systematic approaches below will work in time, but I should have a go at finding 1 or 2 EW bets in these races, eps now HRB has 48 decs, and being able to take a proper look on the Thursday does help. Last year I tipped up Bacchus 50s at Ascot, but that was the only joy on the flat really, (outside of Galway, jumps trainers!) and I spent the rest of the summer giving that flat profit back. These races are tough and I don’t have a consistent historical record of success, so plenty of caution advised. We shall see how I go. 

South Seas

The market may well guide on this one but he ticks all of my stats for this race and has an interesting profile in this. He was bought by current connections for 150k in October, and they spent that knowing full well there was no longer any breeding potential, having long since had the chop. So, if they’re to get a return, it will be through prize money. They have bought a Saturday horse and if P Kirby can take him forward a step this season, or return him to his best, they could have plenty of fun. This one has the best juvenile form in the race and by some way I think. He won the Solario Stakes at Sandown, a G3 (hacked up, eased down), and finished within 4L of Churchill in the Dewhurst. That was on the back of a decent run in France, not beaten far by Thunder Snow. He clearly had problems in 2017 and then failed to win in 2018. It could be he’s gone at the game. However there were plenty of promising/eye-catching efforts last season on various ground. They seemed to ride him very cold in plenty of races where the pace held up, and where he constantly ran into the back of horses with nowhere to go – he was ‘running on’ in plenty of them and finishing like a fresh horse. It could be he needs 10f in time, we shall see. 

Phil Kirby looks to be a trainer going places and his team are in red hot form at the moment. He’s done well at the track in recent months and I would like to think this has been the plan since they bought him. I could be wrong, and he may need it, with other targets down the line. They have booked Spencer which I found interesting given he rides this track very well, and has a good record over the 8f here, esp in big fields. I think he is drawn on the right side, if historical bias holds (it can switch of course) – in general it’s been hard to win drawn low over this CD on decent ground, in big fields , so we shall see if that is maintained. On paper there doesn’t look to be loads of pace/front runners, but an even enough spread of ‘pace pushers’ – you may not want to be held up right out he back in this. Kirby can ready one after a break and I just thought he looked one of the more intriguing ones at a price. If he’s here to run his race, and he does run to his best, I think Spencer will get him into the top 5 no problem. If they can ever get him back to his 2 year old best, he would make this sort of mark look generous enough. He’s a horse to keep an eye on as he does have a touch of class I think and it will be interesting to see what team Kirby can do with him, if anything at all. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

The Flat 

The Doyler

4.45 D – Just You Wait 

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R Hobson (33/1< guide) 

3.55 U – Defi Sacre 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

5.25 S – Hurricane Harvey 

Tom Lacey 

3.55 Uttox – Hes A Goer 

A Dunn

4.50 S – Envoi Toi 

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning trainers (8/1<) 

3.20 U – Cougars Gold 

Jockeys/Chasers (9/1< best) 

3.05 S – Viens Chercher

Trainers to follow

3.55 U – Hes A Goer 

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Adam Normans Little Black Book 

3.20 U – Treshnish / Valence DAumont 

5.05 U – Stylish Moment 

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Aintree Grand National 2019 Stats Pack: Complete… READ HERE>>>

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Big Meeting Notes: Doncaster Lincoln Meeting > trainer pointers + stats/trends for the big handicap >>> READ HERE>>> 

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Saturday’s Feature Flat Handicap Stats/Trends Analysis

3.35 Donc – The Lincoln Handicap 

Trainers (1/1, +9)

I’m experimenting here and that 1/1 figure above is from Naas last Sunday… but I try and use as few stats/trends as possible to narrow a race down, and the initial stats I used left 10. I thought i’d experiment by simply listing those from that list of 10 whose trainers had won the race previously. From last Sunday’s Naas long list there was only one, and he won. So, for this race…

  • Auxerre
  • Humbert
  • Safe Voyage
  • Waarif

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Longlist (1/7,3p, +3)

Simply the horses fired out by the 10/10 stats, of which this time there are x8 10/10 stats, leaving a ‘long list’ of 6. In some races I may have to use 9/10 stats etc to get a long list of 6-8 max. 

Saltonstall 10/1 / Kynren 9/1  / South Seas 12/1 / Humbert 11/1/ Beringer 16/1/ Raydiance 40/1

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Shortlist (0/4,1p, -4) 

There are 4 further stats i’ve used as a guide, ‘Not’ drawn 4-8, 2-7 runs in handicaps, 0-5 wins in handicaps, had ran a track LTO that’s been a guide to winners of this. Two of them – South Seas, and Raydiance, are 4/4 on those, and thus 12/12 on my ‘stats profile’ of sorts. 

My shortlist of 4, to use/ignore how you please…

  • Humbert 
  • Southseas
  • Raydiance
  • Saltonstall 

 

NOTE: The above is a bit experimental but I want to see how those 3 sections (Trainers/Long List/My Shortlist) perform over the Flat season, from a systematic perspective. None of those approaches may work in that way, but if nothing else hopefully some useful info to use in your own punting. 

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Doncaster Lincoln Meeting Trainer Stats Pointers (from report above) 

2.25

Brian The Snail (12/1<) 

Calvados (12/1<) 

3.00

Red Starlight (12/1<) 

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Sharja Bridge 

 

3.35 

Third Time Lucky (12/1<) 

Great Prspector (12/1<) 

Wahash (12/1<) 

Waarif

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Masham Star / Aquarium / Ventura Knight 

 

4.10 

Bendy Spirit (12/1<) 

Show Me Show Me (12/1<) 

4.45 

Allocator (12/1<) 

5.20 

Dark Devil (12/1<) 

Andok (12/1<) 

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

92 Responses

  1. Saturday tips part 1:

    2.40 KP, George Bowen, 2 points each way, some 8/1 about early. I am hoping George can blitz them over the 6F and go on to the better races this season.

    3.35 DON, Raydiance, 1/2 point each way, the rank outsider at present at 66/1. With the enhanced places available the selection can tuck into the pack and out run its odds for Karl Burke.

    1. Just one more from me – 2.25 Doncaster, Brian The Snail 1.5 points each way at 14/1 now. The horse has some good form and if putting his bets foot forward can be in the shake up.

      Good luck today.

  2. Lincoln: Ripp Orf and Ventura Knight both 1pt e/w 12/1 and 50/1 respectively

    Previously advised:
    Spring Mile: Petrus 1pt e/w 9/1

    Rest likely in the morning.

  3. New 2yo thread and the Brocklesby
    My foray into the National Hunt was a bit of a damp squib I started putting up bets in late November and from then to pre Cheltenham only put up 46 selections recording 9 winners and 7 placers mostly 1pt e/w. Total return 2pts so although not disastrous, not very exciting. Mainly the paucity of tips was due to the small fields resulting from fast ground conditions. Whether more opportunities would have resulted in better results who knows?

    For the new 2yo season I am resetting the kitty to 0 and rather than, as last year, writing reams of analysis for many races will just put up selections. I am however going to make an exception for the Brocklesby as my analysis, for those interested, will demonstrate my method. I plan to run this from now until toward the end of June, after that the quantity of 2yo races has tended to see a diminishing return in previous years.

    My method is based around, for want of a better word an algorithm based on my own scores for sire, trainer and jockey. These scores may vary according to month of the year in the case of trainers and sires and courses in the case of jockeys. Eg Trainer A only sends low graders to this course in early season to get a low mark for nurseries, sire B doesn’t get precocious 2yos so unlikely to have a winner before end of May or jockey H is useless around a bend at Goodwood. (my favourite). This has enabled me to get some good results with debutants in maidens.
    Eg
    Date & Title: 17th July 2017 Windsor 5f Novice
    4.25
    3.75 Tip Two Win
    3.5
    3.25 Spring Romance
    3 Expelled
    2.75 Running Cloud, Fiery Breath, Rustang, Cruel Clever Cat
    1.25 Zyzzyva
    Preview – Tip Two Win comes out top but is not getting any support and looks unlikely too as the RP says Teal does not get fto winners. He has only had 6 winners since 2009 but 2 of these have been fto so a 33% strike rate.
    Sire and jockey are ok, draw fairly immaterial. I’m not saying he is a likely winner, but it is not a strong race and may be worth a second look.

    I was at Windsor that night and took 33s after I had seen him. He was only small but his rivals were all yaks. He won 3.5l only shaken up.

    The Brocklesby.
    The ones of interest:-
    A big field of 17 this year. Charlie Hills Walton Thorns who cost 45k has been put in as tissue favourite by the RP. With C B Hills having had 3 winners from 4 runners recently he looks a likely candidate although it would be an unusually early 2yo winner for the stable. 17th April foal.

    Strong Power for George Scott with H Bentley up cost even more at 65k and is by prolific 2yo sire Kodiac. George Scott is hard to evaluate as yet, when he has had a good one such as James Garfield he gets them to win but as yet not first time out. Another April foal.

    Show Me Show Me is a late March Showcasing foal out of a Hungarian mare, costing 24k. One of two for Richard Fahey who has won it 3 times. since 2007. Iron hands Hanagan up so stable first string one assumes. His other runner is Bendy Spirit by Helmet with Tony Hamilton up. I prefer Hamilton to Hanagan on 2yos but of course he is unlikely to be on the best one. Also a late March foal.

    Birkenhead is a typical cheap Channon purchase, only 1k. I missed his winner last year on the grounds that he didn’t get fto winners this early! Watch out for a late move, but as he is by Captain Gerrard not very likely in my eyes. Mick trained her dam to win 2to as a 2yo.

    Coast of Dubai cost 29k, by Elzaam, foaled early April and trained by Kevin Ryan. Although I don’t think he has won this race before he will have his colt ready.

    Then we come to David Evans who has 4 entries, he has never won a Brocklesby and generally his come on for a run. Putting up Adam Kirby is often significant. What is worth watching out for is any of his very early season entries on 2 and 3to. What they do fto may well have no bearing on subsequent runs.

    Bill turner has a Hellvelyn colt Hell Of A Joker, he has won this 3 times but seems not to get the quality to compete in recent years.

    Of some interest is Paddy Elliot, a 9k January foal for Brian Ellison. He is not really a fto winner regular so probably not today.
    Scores
    4.25 Coast of Dubai, Show Me Show Me
    3.75 Bendy Spirit, Strong Power, Walton Thorns, Zulu Zander
    3.25 Paddy Elliot
    Given George Scott’s fto record and the short price of Strong Power despite having Harry Bentley up I must oppose. Similar comments apply to Walton Thorns.
    1pt win Show Me Show Me 13/2 Exchange, 1pt Win Coast Of Dubai 8/1
    Low rated danger Birkenhead as Mick can do wonders with sow’s ears.

    I am away skiing for a week from early tomorrow morning, no fool like an old fool.
    Good luck all.
    Hugh

    1. Really enjoyed reading your analysis last year. Hopefully if you have the time you can put up similar posts. Thanks for your efforts

  4. Evening,

    Tips and then write ups in morning,

    14:25 Doncaster
    ISOMER 22/1 PP 1pt e/w
    RAMPANT LION 9/1 1pt win

    15:35 Doncaster
    ZWAYYAN 14/1 gen 1pt e/w
    BERINGER 8/1 gen 1pt win
    SALTONSTALL 10/1 gen 1pt win

    write ups in morning.

    1. Morning,

      As my eyes are normally focused on the jumps. I`m going to try and shift my focus onto something new-ish. As everyone knows, my flat selections are nowhere near the standard of the jumps, so, i will focus on the main 2 handicaps of the main meetings and see how we go from there!
      So, to that end keep stakes light and hopefully we will get results, here goes.
      14:25 Doncaster
      ISOMER 22/1 gen 1pt e/w
      Now, I always like horses that run over further and are then dropped back, that goes for flat as well as jumps races, this fella has been running over 1m 2f over the all weather, can only assume to get air into his lungs ready for a drop back to 1m. Trainer in good form, 7lb claimer on board and the usual 22/1 is far too big for a place claim.
      RAMPANT LION 9/1 1 pt win
      First thing I do in these early season races is look what the top 3 jockeys from last flat season are on and then look if the horse has anything about them, sometimes the jockey booking is overlooked i always think. Anyways horse is quite adept within this sphere and trainer is bullish about this ones chances, the 9/1 has disappeared, so, grab the 8`s whilst you can, can`t see that lasting for long either.

      15:35 Doncaster
      ZWAYYAN 14/1 gen 1pt e/w
      Draw 1 could go either way here, hoping SDS can get him into a position and as he is Number 1 and has been sunning himself in Hong Kong, can only assume he has come back fitter and fresher this year! He won the Lincoln trial quite convincingly and if he has come on for that should have a good chance here!
      BERINGER 8/1 gen 1pt win
      As Josh said above, these early season flat handicaps are hard to predict, they either go to one of the market leaders, or, a complete outsider. Maybe I have looked at the wrong end of the market, but, cannot see anything apart from my three taking on the hotpot, who, to me has a couple of chinks in it`s armour. Alan King always likes a good flat horse and this one is thrown in down the bottom of the handicap with my favourite flat jockey probably not having any eggs and bakey this morning, really don`t know how they live off a digestive for breakfast? Has plenty of speed and hopefully should come with a wet sail!
      SALTONSTALL 10/1 gen 1pt win
      Always wary of what the irish send over and this is no exception, it seems strange that this fella has come over from Dublin to have a crack at one of the early season handicaps over here. The horse has won at 1m and all i can think is maybe the owners think this would be better than the Irish equivalent that was last week.
      Quotes from trainer are “Big run” and “Big race” bandied about, so, has he come for the craich!!

      As usual, hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.

  5. Given that I was concerned about system performance post March and this week has been poor, I am going to retire the system a couple of days early. Final tally to generally available 10am prices was +67.13 yo advised stakes.

    According to HRB if I had put up bets in intended odds range final results for 1 pointers was 26 winners from 74 bets (35% SR) + 67.84 BFSP (91.7% ROI)

    Results for 2 pointers to level stakes were 10 winners from 38 bets (26% SR) +4.52 BFSP (12% ROI).

    So to advised stakes about 77 points profit to BFSP (51% ROI) and 32% SR lthough there was one winner in there that wasn’t posted.

    HCAP CHASE BETS

    -5.72

    These were poor and are showing -4.78 to BFSP from 30 bets.

    Conscious some people may have only joined in for the system losers at the end but hopefully I won people more than I post them overall.

  6. Thank you chaps.

    It’s a seasonal thing Ken. The results, particularly for the 1 pointers seem to drop off outside what I would call the core NH season (October – March).

    Retirement was perhaps the wrong word, more of a vacation!

  7. Saturday tips part 1:

    2.40 KP, George Bowen, 2 points each way, some 8/1 about early. I am hoping George can blitz them over the 6F and go on to the better races this season.

    3.35 DON, Raydiance, 1/2 point each way, the rank outsider at present at 66/1. With the enhanced places available the selection can tuck into the pack and out run its odds for Karl Burke.

      1. They obviously do not fear Karl Burke at Southwell or Newcastle, but they should.

        System selections for Saturday (now + 50 points in 2019) :

        6.00 Sou, Thunder Buddy 3 points win, now 2/1 but BOG advisable if you can get it.

        6.30 Sou, Astro Jakk 2 points win, now 9/2, same as above.

    1. Just one more from me – 2.25 Doncaster, Brian The Snail 1.5 points each way at 14/1 now. The horse has some good form and if putting his bets foot forward can be in the shake up.

      Good luck today.

  8. Lincoln: Ripp Orf and Ventura Knight both 1pt e/w 12/1 and 50/1 respectively

    Previously advised:
    Spring Mile: Petrus 1pt e/w 9/1

    Rest likely in the morning.

  9. New 2yo thread and the Brocklesby
    My foray into the National Hunt was a bit of a damp squib I started putting up bets in late November and from then to pre Cheltenham only put up 46 selections recording 9 winners and 7 placers mostly 1pt e/w. Total return 2pts so although not disastrous, not very exciting. Mainly the paucity of tips was due to the small fields resulting from fast ground conditions. Whether more opportunities would have resulted in better results who knows?

    For the new 2yo season I am resetting the kitty to 0 and rather than, as last year, writing reams of analysis for many races will just put up selections. I am however going to make an exception for the Brocklesby as my analysis, for those interested, will demonstrate my method. I plan to run this from now until toward the end of June, after that the quantity of 2yo races has tended to see a diminishing return in previous years.

    My method is based around, for want of a better word an algorithm based on my own scores for sire, trainer and jockey. These scores may vary according to month of the year in the case of trainers and sires and courses in the case of jockeys. Eg Trainer A only sends low graders to this course in early season to get a low mark for nurseries, sire B doesn’t get precocious 2yos so unlikely to have a winner before end of May or jockey H is useless around a bend at Goodwood. (my favourite). This has enabled me to get some good results with debutants in maidens.
    Eg
    Date & Title: 17th July 2017 Windsor 5f Novice
    4.25
    3.75 Tip Two Win
    3.5
    3.25 Spring Romance
    3 Expelled
    2.75 Running Cloud, Fiery Breath, Rustang, Cruel Clever Cat
    1.25 Zyzzyva
    Preview – Tip Two Win comes out top but is not getting any support and looks unlikely too as the RP says Teal does not get fto winners. He has only had 6 winners since 2009 but 2 of these have been fto so a 33% strike rate.
    Sire and jockey are ok, draw fairly immaterial. I’m not saying he is a likely winner, but it is not a strong race and may be worth a second look.

    I was at Windsor that night and took 33s after I had seen him. He was only small but his rivals were all yaks. He won 3.5l only shaken up.

    The Brocklesby.
    The ones of interest:-
    A big field of 17 this year. Charlie Hills Walton Thorns who cost 45k has been put in as tissue favourite by the RP. With C B Hills having had 3 winners from 4 runners recently he looks a likely candidate although it would be an unusually early 2yo winner for the stable. 17th April foal.

    Strong Power for George Scott with H Bentley up cost even more at 65k and is by prolific 2yo sire Kodiac. George Scott is hard to evaluate as yet, when he has had a good one such as James Garfield he gets them to win but as yet not first time out. Another April foal.

    Show Me Show Me is a late March Showcasing foal out of a Hungarian mare, costing 24k. One of two for Richard Fahey who has won it 3 times. since 2007. Iron hands Hanagan up so stable first string one assumes. His other runner is Bendy Spirit by Helmet with Tony Hamilton up. I prefer Hamilton to Hanagan on 2yos but of course he is unlikely to be on the best one. Also a late March foal.

    Birkenhead is a typical cheap Channon purchase, only 1k. I missed his winner last year on the grounds that he didn’t get fto winners this early! Watch out for a late move, but as he is by Captain Gerrard not very likely in my eyes. Mick trained her dam to win 2to as a 2yo.

    Coast of Dubai cost 29k, by Elzaam, foaled early April and trained by Kevin Ryan. Although I don’t think he has won this race before he will have his colt ready.

    Then we come to David Evans who has 4 entries, he has never won a Brocklesby and generally his come on for a run. Putting up Adam Kirby is often significant. What is worth watching out for is any of his very early season entries on 2 and 3to. What they do fto may well have no bearing on subsequent runs.

    Bill turner has a Hellvelyn colt Hell Of A Joker, he has won this 3 times but seems not to get the quality to compete in recent years.

    Of some interest is Paddy Elliot, a 9k January foal for Brian Ellison. He is not really a fto winner regular so probably not today.
    Scores
    4.25 Coast of Dubai, Show Me Show Me
    3.75 Bendy Spirit, Strong Power, Walton Thorns, Zulu Zander
    3.25 Paddy Elliot
    Given George Scott’s fto record and the short price of Strong Power despite having Harry Bentley up I must oppose. Similar comments apply to Walton Thorns.
    1pt win Show Me Show Me 13/2 Exchange, 1pt Win Coast Of Dubai 8/1
    Low rated danger Birkenhead as Mick can do wonders with sow’s ears.

    I am away skiing for a week from early tomorrow morning, no fool like an old fool.
    Good luck all.
    Hugh

    1. I’ve decided to add in a .5pt e/w Bendy Spirit (12’s with BF and PP) to my other two win bets. I don’t worry about backing more than one in a race like this. If he drifts beyond 12’s it may be money wasted.
      Hugh

    2. Best of luck Hugh. Nice to see plenty posted in one single post instead of a million different comments.

    3. Really enjoyed reading your analysis last year. Hopefully if you have the time you can put up similar posts. Thanks for your efforts

  10. Evening,

    Tips and then write ups in morning,

    14:25 Doncaster
    ISOMER 22/1 PP 1pt e/w
    RAMPANT LION 9/1 1pt win

    15:35 Doncaster
    ZWAYYAN 14/1 gen 1pt e/w
    BERINGER 8/1 gen 1pt win
    SALTONSTALL 10/1 gen 1pt win

    write ups in morning.

    1. Morning,

      As my eyes are normally focused on the jumps. I`m going to try and shift my focus onto something new-ish. As everyone knows, my flat selections are nowhere near the standard of the jumps, so, i will focus on the main 2 handicaps of the main meetings and see how we go from there!
      So, to that end keep stakes light and hopefully we will get results, here goes.
      14:25 Doncaster
      ISOMER 22/1 gen 1pt e/w
      Now, I always like horses that run over further and are then dropped back, that goes for flat as well as jumps races, this fella has been running over 1m 2f over the all weather, can only assume to get air into his lungs ready for a drop back to 1m. Trainer in good form, 7lb claimer on board and the usual 22/1 is far too big for a place claim.
      RAMPANT LION 9/1 1 pt win
      First thing I do in these early season races is look what the top 3 jockeys from last flat season are on and then look if the horse has anything about them, sometimes the jockey booking is overlooked i always think. Anyways horse is quite adept within this sphere and trainer is bullish about this ones chances, the 9/1 has disappeared, so, grab the 8`s whilst you can, can`t see that lasting for long either.

      15:35 Doncaster
      ZWAYYAN 14/1 gen 1pt e/w
      Draw 1 could go either way here, hoping SDS can get him into a position and as he is Number 1 and has been sunning himself in Hong Kong, can only assume he has come back fitter and fresher this year! He won the Lincoln trial quite convincingly and if he has come on for that should have a good chance here!
      BERINGER 8/1 gen 1pt win
      As Josh said above, these early season flat handicaps are hard to predict, they either go to one of the market leaders, or, a complete outsider. Maybe I have looked at the wrong end of the market, but, cannot see anything apart from my three taking on the hotpot, who, to me has a couple of chinks in it`s armour. Alan King always likes a good flat horse and this one is thrown in down the bottom of the handicap with my favourite flat jockey probably not having any eggs and bakey this morning, really don`t know how they live off a digestive for breakfast? Has plenty of speed and hopefully should come with a wet sail!
      SALTONSTALL 10/1 gen 1pt win
      Always wary of what the irish send over and this is no exception, it seems strange that this fella has come over from Dublin to have a crack at one of the early season handicaps over here. The horse has won at 1m and all i can think is maybe the owners think this would be better than the Irish equivalent that was last week.
      Quotes from trainer are “Big run” and “Big race” bandied about, so, has he come for the craich!!

      As usual, hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.

  11. Given that I was concerned about system performance post March and this week has been poor, I am going to retire the system a couple of days early. Final tally to generally available 10am prices was +67.13 yo advised stakes.

    According to HRB if I had put up bets in intended odds range final results for 1 pointers was 26 winners from 74 bets (35% SR) + 67.84 BFSP (91.7% ROI)

    Results for 2 pointers to level stakes were 10 winners from 38 bets (26% SR) +4.52 BFSP (12% ROI).

    So to advised stakes about 77 points profit to BFSP (51% ROI) and 32% SR lthough there was one winner in there that wasn’t posted.

    HCAP CHASE BETS

    -5.72

    These were poor and are showing -4.78 to BFSP from 30 bets.

    Conscious some people may have only joined in for the system losers at the end but hopefully I won people more than I post them overall.

    1. Francis, you certainly did. Thank you very much for sharing these, I made a nice few quid following them. I hope you come back!

  12. Thank you chaps.

    It’s a seasonal thing Ken. The results, particularly for the 1 pointers seem to drop off outside what I would call the core NH season (October – March).

    Retirement was perhaps the wrong word, more of a vacation!

    1. I really enjoyed following your system Francis well done mate hope we see you posting again soon.

  13. today’s selections.
    Uttoxeter.
    2-10. Collodi 6-1
    3-55. He’s A Goer 17-2
    4-30. Dovils Date 10-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

  14. today’s selections.
    Uttoxeter.
    2-10. Collodi 6-1
    3-55. He’s A Goer 17-2
    4-30. Dovils Date 10-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

  15. Morning Josh , sorry if I’m being daft but I can’t seem to find the link for the key strategies for the FLAT. I can find all the ones for the jumps but I wanted to have a little read on the different ones for the flat in anticipation for the upcoming season. Could you point me in the right direction please. Cheers.

  16. Hi all, my three for today.

    DONCASTER 14:25 GULF OF POETS
    DONCASTER 15:35 SALTONSTALL
    SOUTHWELL 19:30 SHINE BABY SHINE

    G.L.

  17. todays darts

    Stratford
    3-05 cut the corner
    3-40 tea time fred

    uttoxeter
    3-20 treshnish
    5-05 the boss’s dream

    kempton
    4-25 jungle inthebungle

    good luck everyone

  18. one main bet today
    2.25 Donc Dawaaleeb each way 5 places
    interest bets
    5.20 Donc Staplegrove
    8.30 South Petra’s pony

  19. Morning Josh , sorry if I’m being daft but I can’t seem to find the link for the key strategies for the FLAT. I can find all the ones for the jumps but I wanted to have a little read on the different ones for the flat in anticipation for the upcoming season. Could you point me in the right direction please. Cheers.

    1. hi Stan, yep the link doesn’t appear to be anywhere! 🙂 I need to update it, apols.

      Last update to end Sept here… http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Flat-Advised-Strategies-2018-results-no.6-end-SEPT-2018.pdf

      (need to update those results to end of season, S6 had a losing run -25 or so to add onto that)

      I’m away from ‘the office’ until later this evening, I’ll sort it tomorrow. Flat Strategies S1 (double/treble top rated), S4 (treble) and S6 (any top rated, 6/1+ morning odds) were the main ones last year, esp S6 which will hopefully be another 50-75+ strategy again. – none of those today. S3A didn’t do that well and nor S3A#, which just wiped it’s face. Much of my flat systematic hope will be on S6. S1/S4 combined are only 20-35 points strategies but I suppose every little helps!

      Josh

      1. Interesting Josh. This clearly means (as i was not here for last Flat) that i need to re-think and prioritise my ‘best’ approaches to follow on yours. Once i eventually cut down on over betting i settled on only following Nick’s and your S1, S3A# and Big Race Tips. I will watch with interest to see which might be the best 2 or 3 to add to the BRT s. All the best.

        1. Thanks John. Oh I’m comfortable advising following S6, that’s been solid since inception and can be placed in morning , no BFSP factor in terms of price setting. Hopefully that’s a +50/60 points again this flat season as with last year. I’ll pull my finger out early next week and clarify etc.

          1. Thanks Josh, that’s great! B t w, and it s not a chase, but just to let you know i ve not seen anything in my Paypal A/C as yet. As said previously i will be donating mine to a Charity. Thanks.

  20. COLINS BETS
    Doncaster
    2.25 Calvados Spirit BOG 14/1
    5.20 Central City BOG 15/2
    Kempton
    2.40 George Bowen BOG 13/2
    2.40 Soldiers Minute BOG 10/3
    Uttoxeter
    4.30 Little Millie BOG 9/2
    ELITE BETS
    Doncaster
    2.25 Al Jellaby BOG 8/1
    Kempton
    3.15 Casper The Cub BOG 10/1
    3.15 Star Of Southwold BOG 40/1
    3.15 Dommerson BOG 25/1
    Uttoxeter
    5.05 Mahlermade BOG 4/1
    NEW METHOD
    Stratford
    1.55 Airton BOG 9/4
    4.50 Keep Moving BOG 2/1
    Uttoxeter
    2.10 Collodi BOG 4/1
    Southwell
    7.30 Royal Flag BOG 11/1
    8.30 Lukoutoldmakezebak BOG 7/1
    Colin

    1. Cracking day Colin! Landed some beauties there. Nearly 20 points up following Colin’s Bets today. Thank you.

  21. Meydan Madness.
    11-45. Mawahib @ 33/1
    12-15.Musawaat @ 50/1
    12-50. Red Galileo @ 50/1
    1-30. Ekhtiyaar @ 18/1
    5p ew L15

  22. 1:50 Equilateral
    2:10 Collodi
    2:25 Petrus
    3:35 Auxerre
    3:50 Eardley Road
    4:10 Show me show me
    4:30 Dovils Date

    £24 staked (10p e/ w)
    -£77.91

  23. George B and like-minded silly boys: I quite like Great Prospector and Safe Voyage at big prices for the Lincoln. At Kempton AW, I’m on the following:

    2.40 George B(owen):-)

    3.15 Forbidden Planet and Desert Wind

    Appreciate any system churn outs for Southwell tonite,we must surely be playing with bookies money!!

    Out till around 3pm, get on it 🙂

  24. Ok kiss of death time for these four, My e/w lucky 15.

    Stratford 1.55 Miss Mumtaz 7/1, I thought this one won with plenty in hand at Huntingdon and there are lots in here just having a runabout, I think this one and Peppay Le Pugh are a bit quirky as neither do a tap when they hit the front, good e/w chance.
    Uttoxeter 2.10 Agent Westy 16/1, early days for this one thought he ran a good race to the second last at Taunton, shocker last time but TongueTie on for first time and jockey I like.
    Stratford 5.25 Nothing Man 10/1, Now I read somewhere about the Trainer angle horses coming into form, good run at Ayr on heavy before changing stables, better ground and positive Jockey booking.
    Uttoxeter 5.35 Agent Valdez 12/1, This race might be to hot for this one but on it’s run at Wetherby it ran a bit green to my eyes Paddy Brennan gave her a couple of taps to straighten her up and she ran on ok, with the jockey taking off 7 I think this one is being overlooked.

    Good luck all.

  25. Hi all, my three for today.

    DONCASTER 14:25 GULF OF POETS
    DONCASTER 15:35 SALTONSTALL
    SOUTHWELL 19:30 SHINE BABY SHINE

    G.L.

  26. todays darts

    Stratford
    3-05 cut the corner
    3-40 tea time fred

    uttoxeter
    3-20 treshnish
    5-05 the boss’s dream

    kempton
    4-25 jungle inthebungle

    good luck everyone

  27. Lambourn Trainers
    Only one today from Charles Hills
    1.50 Doncaster Equilateral BOG 3/1
    No updates
    Colin

  28. one main bet today
    2.25 Donc Dawaaleeb each way 5 places
    interest bets
    5.20 Donc Staplegrove
    8.30 South Petra’s pony

  29. COLINS BETS
    Doncaster
    2.25 Calvados Spirit BOG 14/1
    5.20 Central City BOG 15/2
    Kempton
    2.40 George Bowen BOG 13/2
    2.40 Soldiers Minute BOG 10/3
    Uttoxeter
    4.30 Little Millie BOG 9/2
    ELITE BETS
    Doncaster
    2.25 Al Jellaby BOG 8/1
    Kempton
    3.15 Casper The Cub BOG 10/1
    3.15 Star Of Southwold BOG 40/1
    3.15 Dommerson BOG 25/1
    Uttoxeter
    5.05 Mahlermade BOG 4/1
    NEW METHOD
    Stratford
    1.55 Airton BOG 9/4
    4.50 Keep Moving BOG 2/1
    Uttoxeter
    2.10 Collodi BOG 4/1
    Southwell
    7.30 Royal Flag BOG 11/1
    8.30 Lukoutoldmakezebak BOG 7/1
    Colin

    1. Cracking day Colin! Landed some beauties there. Nearly 20 points up following Colin’s Bets today. Thank you.

  30. Meydan Madness.
    11-45. Mawahib @ 33/1
    12-15.Musawaat @ 50/1
    12-50. Red Galileo @ 50/1
    1-30. Ekhtiyaar @ 18/1
    5p ew L15

  31. 1:50 Equilateral
    2:10 Collodi
    2:25 Petrus
    3:35 Auxerre
    3:50 Eardley Road
    4:10 Show me show me
    4:30 Dovils Date

    £24 staked (10p e/ w)
    -£77.91

  32. George B and like-minded silly boys: I quite like Great Prospector and Safe Voyage at big prices for the Lincoln. At Kempton AW, I’m on the following:

    2.40 George B(owen):-)

    3.15 Forbidden Planet and Desert Wind

    Appreciate any system churn outs for Southwell tonite,we must surely be playing with bookies money!!

    Out till around 3pm, get on it 🙂

    1. nope ..no can do today 🙁 … bungle has told george to zip it !! 🙂
      end of month charging out !! ( may make more money this way 😉 )
      plus he is at the end of his winter rtp pass 🙁

      best regards
      geoffrey
      p.s. he likes 2.25 donc brian the snail e/w ( his time of year ? )

    2. ERRRRR….. WAKEY WAKEY ……….i have just made more money on de all weather thanks to you than charging out .. uda man !! 🙂 what a double get in 🙂
      ooooooopsss .. not too many messages now george …………. 🙁

      gb 🙂

  33. Ok kiss of death time for these four, My e/w lucky 15.

    Stratford 1.55 Miss Mumtaz 7/1, I thought this one won with plenty in hand at Huntingdon and there are lots in here just having a runabout, I think this one and Peppay Le Pugh are a bit quirky as neither do a tap when they hit the front, good e/w chance.
    Uttoxeter 2.10 Agent Westy 16/1, early days for this one thought he ran a good race to the second last at Taunton, shocker last time but TongueTie on for first time and jockey I like.
    Stratford 5.25 Nothing Man 10/1, Now I read somewhere about the Trainer angle horses coming into form, good run at Ayr on heavy before changing stables, better ground and positive Jockey booking.
    Uttoxeter 5.35 Agent Valdez 12/1, This race might be to hot for this one but on it’s run at Wetherby it ran a bit green to my eyes Paddy Brennan gave her a couple of taps to straighten her up and she ran on ok, with the jockey taking off 7 I think this one is being overlooked.

    Good luck all.

  34. George B, if you end up playing tonite I don’t have any strong fancies 🙁

    Gonna chance a few quid on Awa Bomber at 8.00 and Foxrush Takes Time in the last. Good day today, thanks to Nick for Petrus, a saver on Auxerre & the two I posted. Have a good evening, treat Mrs GB to a bag of chips 🙂

  35. all system positives
    6.00 Southwell AQUA LIBRA
    6.00 Southwell SOOQAAN
    6.00 Southwell THUNDER BUDDY
    6.30 Southwell SO HIGH SPEED
    7.00 Southwell HAMMER GUN
    7.30 Southwell KATIE GIRL ( Placed only @ best )
    8.00 Southwell AVA BOMBER
    8.00 Southwell BISCUIT QUEEN
    8.00 Southwell BUDAIYA
    8.00 Southwell GEOGRAPHY TEACHER

    have a good night .. respecccccctttt !!!

    gl/gb 😉
    and thanks

  36. Lambourn Trainers
    Only one today from Charles Hills
    1.50 Doncaster Equilateral BOG 3/1
    No updates
    Colin

  37. Nice one G, glad to see Awa Bomber on the list! Coming around to saving on Geography teacher….

    Catch you laters mi amigo 🙂

  38. Hi Guys,
    Had a cracking day today…best day ever

    8/10 winners

    Invincible Army
    Kereman
    Renwick
    Petrus
    Sharja Bridge
    George Bowen
    Auxerre/Flowery double from yesterday Rip Orf (place)
    Show me Show me
    2/3 on a trixie…Kereman/ Renwick/ Zamperelli

    thanks for all your posts
    Fitzpatrick

  39. George B, if you end up playing tonite I don’t have any strong fancies 🙁

    Gonna chance a few quid on Awa Bomber at 8.00 and Foxrush Takes Time in the last. Good day today, thanks to Nick for Petrus, a saver on Auxerre & the two I posted. Have a good evening, treat Mrs GB to a bag of chips 🙂

    1. yep not sure my man … great day thanks to nick and the 2 m.c.’s you and martin 😉
      good day so far .. might try and lose some at southwell ….. lets see 😉

  40. all system positives
    6.00 Southwell AQUA LIBRA
    6.00 Southwell SOOQAAN
    6.00 Southwell THUNDER BUDDY
    6.30 Southwell SO HIGH SPEED
    7.00 Southwell HAMMER GUN
    7.30 Southwell KATIE GIRL ( Placed only @ best )
    8.00 Southwell AVA BOMBER
    8.00 Southwell BISCUIT QUEEN
    8.00 Southwell BUDAIYA
    8.00 Southwell GEOGRAPHY TEACHER

    have a good night .. respecccccctttt !!!

    gl/gb 😉
    and thanks

  41. Nice one G, glad to see Awa Bomber on the list! Coming around to saving on Geography teacher….

    Catch you laters mi amigo 🙂

  42. Hi Guys,
    Had a cracking day today…best day ever

    8/10 winners

    Invincible Army
    Kereman
    Renwick
    Petrus
    Sharja Bridge
    George Bowen
    Auxerre/Flowery double from yesterday Rip Orf (place)
    Show me Show me
    2/3 on a trixie…Kereman/ Renwick/ Zamperelli

    thanks for all your posts
    Fitzpatrick

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