Members Daily Post: 29/03/19 (complete)

Section 1 (complete) , Lincoln Handicap analysis, test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Fontwell

2.10 –

Soulsaver   (all Hc;s) 14,30   ES+ H1  11/2 S3A

Demon Fou   (all Hc’s) 14 13/2 

 

Wetherby

3.25 – Suggestion   (m class) 14,30  w2 G3 11/2 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: +2.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 3/52,16p, -23)

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Daily Tips

None on Friday. 

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NOTE: David Dennis... it may be worth taking note of his runners now, albeit after two recent winners at nice prices, maybe after the Lord Mayor’s show.  I’m sure they’ve had problems, as had been quiet for a few months, but they appear to be finding form again and could have a few well handicapped, and plenty fresh enough that he may not have been running if ill etc. His last 5 runners now… 1, 4 (17 runners), 2, 2, 1.  He runs Swissal at Lingfield on Friday, 2.30, and then four runners over the weekend.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning trainers

3.55 W – Flowery

4.30 W – Golden Jeffrey

Jockeys/Chasers

2.40 F – The Happy Chappy (9/1< best)

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

3.55 W – Flowery

Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

3.25 W – Falcon Sun

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book 

3.55 W – Flowery (short term)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Aintree Grand National 2019 Stats Pack: Complete… READ HERE>>>

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Big Meeting Notes: Doncaster Lincoln Meeting > trainer pointers + stats/trends for the big handicap >>> READ HERE>>> 

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Saturday’s Feature Flat Handicap Stats/Trends Analysis

3.35 Donc – The Lincoln Handicap 

Trainers (1/1, +9)

I’m experimenting here and that 1/1 figure above is from Naas last Sunday… but I try and use as few stats/trends as possible to narrow a race down, and the initial stats I used left 10. I thought i’d experiment by simply listing those from that list of 10 whose trainers had won the race previously. From last Sunday’s Naas long list there was only one, and he won. So, for this race…

  • Auxerre
  • Humbert
  • Safe Voyage
  • Waarif

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Longlist (1/7,3p, +3)

Simply the horses fired out by the 10/10 stats, of which this time there are x8 10/10 stats, leaving a ‘long list’ of 6. In some races I may have to use 9/10 stats etc to get a long list of 6-8 max. 

Saltonstall 10/1 / Kynren 9/1  / South Seas 12/1 / Humbert 11/1/ Beringer 16/1/ Raydiance 40/1

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Shortlist (0/4,1p, -4) 

There are 4 further stats i’ve used as a guide, ‘Not’ drawn 4-8, 2-7 runs in handicaps, 0-5 wins in handicaps, had ran a track LTO that’s been a guide to winners of this. Two of them – South Seas, and Raydiance, are 4/4 on those, and thus 12/12 on my ‘stats profile’ of sorts. 

My shortlist of 4, to use/ignore how you please…

  • Humbert 
  • Southseas
  • Raydiance
  • Saltonstall 

 

NOTE: The above is a bit experimental but I want to see how those 3 sections (Trainers/Long List/My Shortlist) perform over the Flat season, from a systematic perspective. None of those approaches may work in that way, but if nothing else hopefully some useful info to use in your own punting. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

103 Responses

  1. System selections:

    Emma Lavelle Handicappers 5/1+ – 2.10 FP, Celtic Joy, 1 point each way at 9/1.

    Karl Burke at Newcastle – 7.00, Robotique Danseur, 2 points win at 2/1.

  2. I forgot to mention BG and MC’s posts are the bollocks. Thats what make a great forum, well done guys ( sloppy but smile smiley)

  3. Martin Colwell
    For your project would include horse must be proven winner, 20% to 25% of all horses in training are only winners, the other 75/80% never win.
    Yesterday Colins bets said potential bet never won and to short, went off at 6/4 fav and lost.
    Another angle for flat racing is the draw, odd one win from a bad draw but not many.
    Colin.

  4. System selections:

    Emma Lavelle Handicappers 5/1+ – 2.10 FP, Celtic Joy, 1 point each way at 9/1.

    Karl Burke at Newcastle – 7.00, Robotique Danseur, 2 points win at 2/1.

    1. Robotique Danseur was given a favourable mention in Mark Howard’s Cheltenham update. Karl Burke believes she is very good and has her entered in the French 1000 Guineas.

      Chris R.

        1. In fairness it was Martin that put it up. I just added the comments I had read, but yes a nice drift to a more backable price.

          Chris R.

  5. today’s selections. albeit at reduced stakes.
    Fontwell 4-50. Turban 14-1,fast drying ground could benefit speculative 1/4 pt ew.
    Wetherby 3-55. Astracad 13-2 1/2 pt win

  6. GAME OF STONES
    Only the most innovative ploys will be successful
    (DA da’ da’ DA da, da da DA da)

    So, with two days to go to yet another War of the Flat it’s good to know the members of House Racing to Profit are equipping themselves with the latest in cerebral thinking and cutting edge innovation. Why go down untrodden paths of research to defeat the enemy when you can join the masses in tuning into the ramblings of a trainer who more than likely hasn’t even looked at the form of the other runners in the race. I’m sorry I’m the one who has to relay the bad news but betting jollies in any form or system is like standing in the main square and pulling your pants down. This website should be strong enough to put forlorn theories and plans to the sword within seconds of being posted before others get infected with the virus ( oh!! Sorry that’s another series ( embarrassing smiley) Before the inevitable post “ well you’re so good, you tell us how it’s done” I will remind people I pay Josh a subscription for access to a site I hope grows in stature, not to inform arse scratchers, what time is it, what day is it, let’s get a tip, a viable method of selecting winners.(grin)

    I think this Flat season will be the hardest ever as I believe the whole game of betting has moved so fast over the last year with almost every punter arming themselves with some sort of software that highlights certain losers and potential winners. While this is fine in principle, the problem is these stats produce early bets on bookmakers prices. As we know, the books don’t take significant money for long so prices are shortened for very little and a fairly solid market is therefore built on statistics. Betfair is just full of Bots now where most are just clueless punters that used to be losers are now trying their hand at laying in markets with no liquidity, then with 15 minutes to go the bigger boys move in with their trading. It’s only the last minute when the rats jump ship, where the trading money disappears that the real market surfaces. Very few big drifters win at this time.

    I really don’t see why members carry on with this farce of logging BOG or even early prices, it’s like the clowns trying to fool the idiots, I see our Leader in this instance has never once in my memory overstepped what was a most available price. My own very few selections have shown a 4 times over SP profit but there are many other bets I don’t make because of not getting the early price. So a new approach is needed, one which is totally contrarian. The Herd now has the technology, the books don’t even employ odds makers any more as we idiots form the market for peanuts. I personally think very few punters will survive this year as humans are programmed to believe data and certainly the younger of us are wired into the technology.

    A word on Class. Class is just one aspect of finding a winner and should be used only as a pointer to the bigger picture. Generally a drop in class means a loss of form or at times because a horse hasn’t had its optimum running traits. I feel it’s very rare a horse falls from Class 2 or 3 other than a loss of form, trainers cannot afford for these horses to drop. Horses dropping from class 4/5/6 should be taken taken with the (salt) this is the epitome of greyhound racing. Generally I mark a class dropper and a look at its form can usually tell the story. Look for bad draws, wrong ground, slow pace. If there are excuses then you have a potential bet, not a stat. Don’t forget the hoss that goes up in class, it could be an improver. Generally I’d say look at the market last time out, was it bet? Did it quicken to win ( BTW, if you see quicken in any form, make a note) Remember, PACE,PACE, PACE, everything else goes out the window if there’s none. Don’t bet unless you have an angle for no pass. GOING: most hoss’s go in anything so don’t be over tough unless there’s concrete evidence. DISTANCE: is purely down to pace and how hosses travel. Thats why I only bet Horses to 1 mile.

    Some of us are going to be lost on this new flat journey and only people who learn and improve their own betting will survive. Try to be contrarian and read between the form lines, 2 lengths loss in a group 3 can be lost in the stats becauce it shows 0/3 in a class 2 hcap. Don’t be that stupid loser that thinks a portfolio is the answer, it’s a curse. My advice is use this website as a place of informed opinion that you can use to build your own individual base for bets.

    1. Going most hoss’s go in anything, they may run in it but they do not perform to their best, why do trainers pull out their horses because of the going!!!
      Distance horses are bred for certain distance ie the Derby etc, and a 6 furlong horse rarely as the speed to win a 5 furlong race, nor the stamina to win a 7 furlong race the extra furlong is to far, odd exception of course there is.
      Class, a trainer will try his horse in higher grade to try and get Black Type for breeding purposes more money at stud, or for higher prize money for the owner and the trainers own %
      If the horse under performs at the higher grade then it is dropped back in class so it as a chance to win at the level that suits, and it also as come down the HC, having failed in the higher class.
      My own very few selections have shown a 4 times over SP profit.
      So in your results you count EP or BOG
      Many on this forum still have access to bookmakers and are able to take advantage of EP and BOG, that is why they are put up.
      Try having ago at Pricewise in the Racing Post about prices that he claims and no one can get a decent bet on, sure they will be delighted to hear from you.
      Colin.
      PS my mate used to run his horses over 2 1/2 miles knowing that they do not stay that distance, and after 4 or 5 runs would drop them to 2 mile having dropped in the HC and with 4 or 5 form figures of 00000 and a decent price it had a chance of win or a place.

    2. Footnote regarding yesterdays results.
      re class droppers: Diomede Des Mottes down 4 classes won @11/4 class 5
      Reflektor down in class won 12/1 class 3
      Rux Power down 2 classes won evens class 4
      Sepahi down in class won 5/1 class 6
      Mystical Moon down in class won 14/1 class 6
      19 races across the cards 8 favs won 42% 11 lost 58% Splitting jt fav race = .875 profit to £1.00 level stakes. About 30 % of favs win overall and about 70% or races are won by the first three in the betting overall, might be 75% but have not the exact figures and will be happy to be corrected. Favs are not overall profitable to bet because of the restricted price of favs. Personally I dislike betting favs as IU like betting bigger prices for each way options. I appreciate thos who dislike each way betting and prefer win only bets. It is a matter of personal preference.Like any selection you have to have the right criteria to strike a bet, be they short prices or at the other end of the market. Puttting up systems and exploring options is part of the journey you
      Conclusion: Stats are are a start because what you are looking for is a pattern that repeats to get some consistency and, of course, other factors are important as you mention. Yes, a horse going up in class can be progressive and cope with a rise in class as well as weight. Others cannot. Horses can drop in class to 4/5/6 and win so they are evidently have not lost their form.
      Don’t insult people by calling them arse scratchers or be hypercritical of others who are looking for ways of turning a profit by exploring systems or options that include short priced favs, top of the market where prices are short, or class droppers.
      Not all horses can cope with any going or any distance. Top class horses can perform on most going but most cannot and some are bred to sprint, for middle, and long distances…the whole business of breeding horses is predicated on the genetic endowment of sires and brood mares so your comments on Distance and Going needs some revision because it is clearly not correct. Tell the horse who is tailed off at the back that their inability to perform is down to pace and how “hosses travel” and not to genetics or the lack of capability to win at the distance or on the going, irrespective of the fact they may be having an off day….they are not machines after all. I am not sure what you mean by “don’t be that stupid loser that thinks a portfolio is the answer” as again it not very helpful or constructive and contrary to your stated purpose of using the website as place of informed opinion to use to build your own individual base for bets. Insulting those exploring options is not helpful as this may be discouraging to those who wish to explore systems, contrarian or otherwise and will not want to post for fear of criticism from you or other members. “This website should be strong enough to put forlorn theories and plans to the sword within seconds of being posted.” Bet you were down the docks in 1492 telling Columbus it was a “forlorn” venture going west as he would fall off the edge of the world and even if he did manage to survive there was nothing worth there to seeing anyway..oh and by the way Christopher your arse is hanging out your trousers.

      1. To some trying to come up with systems etc that may be successful is a hobby for some and a way of making money for others and of course both. This site is good for giving a portal for such to be discussed, based upon the experience and knowledge of subscribers. We should all be happy to post something up even if it is thrown to the Lions. We only learn form experiences.

        Please avoid systems backing favourites they do not work to any profit making extent. Nor do systems that involve backing volumes of horses each day. I am happy to be proved wrong and please point me to one that does work where the results are proofed independently.

        1. Hi Martin. I agree about backing favs not being profitable. That is not the real issue. When I put up the class dropper angle combined with favs both you and Traf69 gave positive feedback saying the stats are against the notion and both of you advised to look again and add more filters to find a system that may have a chance of working…that, to me, is the way to react as you were both being constructive in your criticism, not disparaging. That kind of response is extremely helpful and productive because it forces me to re-examine the criteria in a positive way. Under such circumstances no one should refrain from posting with ideas etc., that may or not work. No problem with that at all. Thanks again to you both for your constructive criticisms.

      2. Silver
        very well put, and for myself the forum is about helping one another if we can to beat the greedy accountants.
        Thought you would have known the World is FLAT Ha Ha
        Colin.

    3. Chubnut, I couldn’t agree more with this coming flat season being the most difficult and betting having changed so much in the last year. Things are certainly changing, tried and tested methods are creaking for many and need overhauling not tweaking. Will we be blaming the going and weather all summer again?

      1. I disagree that it will be the most difficult flat season to back winners. There is no logic to this unless you pin your hopes to the fact that bookmakers may decide to squeeze punters more than they do. The data available is there for all sides if they choose to look at it and know how to analyse it usefully.
        Punters such as us that you may consider to be beyond ‘mug punter’ status can surely share our thoughts and work together to be in that mythical 3% of punters who make a profit from betting. I can do it and I am no genius (yet, only joking!).

        Let us try to zag when others are zigging.

  7. I forgot to mention BG and MC’s posts are the bollocks. Thats what make a great forum, well done guys ( sloppy but smile smiley)

    1. hello mr cn think you may have put the word in “the” by mistake in the above wordings ….. i think ?????? ( if not you are the first to think so outside of the initial
      ” m.c.’s ” ) lol smiley slightly disbelief face
      gb 😉

  8. Aww, you are clearly a man of great insight :-). I think you mean GB tho? You big lunk you 🙂

  9. Martin Colwell
    For your project would include horse must be proven winner, 20% to 25% of all horses in training are only winners, the other 75/80% never win.
    Yesterday Colins bets said potential bet never won and to short, went off at 6/4 fav and lost.
    Another angle for flat racing is the draw, odd one win from a bad draw but not many.
    Colin.

    1. Yes Colin, previous winner fits most types of race well as a factor for selection. I guess we can swerve Maidens.

      Re the draw on the flat and the all weather, obviously this relates to course ran at as well. But….does a bad draw LTO become a good thing? How do you increase its rating because of the bad draw. How many extra lengths is it worth dependent on what course it previously ran at? Or is it just an excuse for a bad run? I am not expecting you to answer, just my head ticking it over.

      Thanks for your input.

      1. Its late but your bet today Maid Mille had a bad draw and it drifted like a barge not looked up to see if Luke Morris had ridden it before, sure he was on to get the feel of the horse for another day when the moneys down and a decent draw.
        All the best Martin and hope you come up trumps in your venture to benefit all of us.
        Colin.

  10. today’s selections. albeit at reduced stakes.
    Fontwell 4-50. Turban 14-1,fast drying ground could benefit speculative 1/4 pt ew.
    Wetherby 3-55. Astracad 13-2 1/2 pt win

    1. W3-55. a quick write up on why i’m taking on Flowery,Flowery up 26lbs for his last 4 runs has only won on soft and is unproven on good ground and over longer distance, Astracad gets top marks for consistency and gets good ground, although now 13 is still running to at least this grade was rated as high as 145 in his prime gets in here off a very workable 109 and has won over this distance, at 13-2 looks to be the value ( yes i said it) in the race.

      1. I see that Flowery is weak in the market but still 2/1. Would you not be better laying it than backing Astracad? I can see your case to be against Flowery but Astracad still has a fair bit to do here and you only have seven runners and so the each way value is not there.

  11. GB & HIS ALL WEATHER FANCIES TODAY( NO .. NOT TIPS OR TO BE LOGGED 🙂 )
    3.05 Lingfield 2 CAPTAIN LARS (SAF)
    all weather specialist Oisin back on board again ( since last march !) right month
    fair price i’d say ( and to get over evens for 4tbp will be too much for me to bare 😉 )

    No groaning but i will be back later with my Newcastle fancies

    gl / gb 🙂

    1. Hiya G, like your selection a lot, t/j stats of 36% win 54% place at the track last five years and 40%/50% in last year. I see Tathmeen as the main danger, he comes out well on several interconnected form lines so will save on him.

      My so called “tips” provided 2 winners from 4 selections at +5.30 BFSP last night so thinking of trying to wrestle your crown off you during April double lol.

      Today’s selections are:

      2.30 Ling Spirit of Zebedee and Tavener

      18.45 Dundalk Park Row

      All one point win .

      For fun you might like to hurl some change on Cherries at Dawn in the 4.40 Ling. Up against a Gosden hotpot but trainer thinks it might run a big race at a price and the t/j stats encouraging, would regret not backing it at 66/1 so that’s me on Ryvita and marmite for the weekend 🙂 back later with Newcastle thoughts, seeya G.

    2. hi “mc” in the mirror
      nope not at all .. i am glad when it might be a bit more than my eggscentical brain coming up with some crazy idea for horse race winner .. great minds n all that .

      gl/gb 🙂

    3. Bad news George, I like this one too, but I want 9/1 before I wade in. (Sideways looking greedy smiley)

  12. COLINS BETS
    2.00 Lingfield Golden Guest BOG 9/2
    6.30 Newcastle Insurplus BOG 7/2
    ELITE BETS
    2.30 Lingfield Kraka BOG 4/1
    4.10 Lingfield Albert Finney BOG 9/4

    NEW METHOD
    Fontwell
    2.40 The Happy Chappy BOG 7/2
    4.50 Truckers Tangle BOG 7/2
    Newcastle
    6.30 Insurplus BOG 7/2
    7.30 Rey Loopy BOG 5/1
    Colin

  13. Poor day yesterday, will catch up on results later.

    SYSTEM BETS

    1pt win – 2.20 W – Constancio
    1pt win – 3.45 F – Cybalko
    1pt win – 3.55 W – Lough Salt

    HCAP CHASE BETS

    2.40 F – Newtown Lad

  14. LAMBOURN TRAINERS
    2.00 Lingfield Bin Daahir BOG 9/1 Charles Hills
    Fontwell
    4.20 Manning Estate BOG 10/3 Oliver Sherwood
    5.20 Republican BOG 6/1 Oliver Sherwood
    Thats it for today no updates.
    Colin

  15. Hi all, my three for today.

    WETHERBY 15:25 SUGGESTION
    WETHERBY 16:30 CORNBOROUGH
    WETHERBY 17:05 BIBICAL

    G.L.

  16. emmmm …. my sensible and confused head on .. i was absorbing silvers and martins (and a few others) comments yesterday about handicap marks down yet the “OR” mark up ???
    Anyway can’t find away to show handicap marks being down on hrb ????
    but i came up with my gb alternative of :
    all weather / certain tracks / certain months
    weight carrying now = less
    but
    OR = higher
    and this is in non handicaps races ??????????? ( how does that work ??)

    Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races ROI(SP) P/L(BF)
    105 29 27.62 84.05 45 42.86 61 80.05 140.52

    answers on a postcard please ?? 🙂

    happily bemusing himself gb 🙂

  17. 4 placed yesterday so only an £8 loss!
    2:10 F Percy Prosecco
    3:05 L Captain Lars
    4:20 F Manning Estate
    4:30 W Cornborough
    5:05 W Biblical
    6:30 N Sulafat
    7:45 D Mutadaawel

    £24 staked (10p e/w)
    -£67.48

  18. GB & HIS ALL WEATHER FANCIES TODAY( NO .. NOT TIPS OR TO BE LOGGED 🙂 )
    3.05 Lingfield 2 CAPTAIN LARS (SAF)
    all weather specialist Oisin back on board again ( since last march !) right month
    fair price i’d say ( and to get over evens for 4tbp will be too much for me to bare 😉 )

    No groaning but i will be back later with my Newcastle fancies

    gl / gb 🙂

    1. Bad news George, I like this one too, but I want 9/1 before I wade in. (Sideways looking greedy smiley)

    2. Hiya G, like your selection a lot, t/j stats of 36% win 54% place at the track last five years and 40%/50% in last year. I see Tathmeen as the main danger, he comes out well on several interconnected form lines so will save on him.

      My so called “tips” provided 2 winners from 4 selections at +5.30 BFSP last night so thinking of trying to wrestle your crown off you during April double lol.

      Today’s selections are:

      2.30 Ling Spirit of Zebedee and Tavener

      18.45 Dundalk Park Row

      All one point win .

      For fun you might like to hurl some change on Cherries at Dawn in the 4.40 Ling. Up against a Gosden hotpot but trainer thinks it might run a big race at a price and the t/j stats encouraging, would regret not backing it at 66/1 so that’s me on Ryvita and marmite for the weekend 🙂 back later with Newcastle thoughts, seeya G.

      1. morning the real mc …… all points above noted thanks and absorbing process underway .. yes you carried on the baton well last night my man well done sir !!
        I really hope you are “Aprils” Tipster of the month as well …. you need broad shoulders mind …. there is a lot of pressure to it 😉 .. i have no doubts you are capable !! 😉

        Good luck to day and let’s see where we are later 🙂
        p.s. mr brisland has some more only one runner at the track sheenaneegans
        again tomorrow 😉

        p.s. shall we give chubnuts an “mc club ” a lifetime achievements award for sensen sensibility within the forum ? …….. we should put it to the board ! lol 🙂

        have a great day !
        gl/gb 🙂

    3. hi “mc” in the mirror
      nope not at all .. i am glad when it might be a bit more than my eggscentical brain coming up with some crazy idea for horse race winner .. great minds n all that .

      gl/gb 🙂

  19. first of about 3 races i am looking at tonight 😉 :

    7.00 Newcastle 1 Astonished (IRE)
    ( on system and worthy favourite )
    Newcastle 6 Hikayay
    (on system right month / track / trainer good draw big price .. i like it e/w 4tbp !)
    Newcastle 8 Maid For Life
    (on system fair enough draw )
    Newcastle 11 Under The Storm
    ( on system but not well drawn ?? )
    Newcastle 10 Robotique Danseur (FR)
    ( also on my “trimmed” k burke aw system and well drawn )

    gl/gb 🙂

    1. month/track/jockey /trainer / stallion / distance system runners
      Today 5.55 Up Ten Down Two (IRE) Newcastle (LH)
      ( not brilliantly but not badly drawn trainer loves a winner/gamble here 😉 )
      Today 7.30 Rey Loopy (IRE) Newcastle (Str)
      ( on system good draw )
      Today 7.30 Trinity Star (IRE) Newcastle (Str
      (on system not such a good draw ??? )
      Today 7.30 Testa Rossa (IRE) Newcastle (Str)
      (on system not such a good draw ??? )
      Today 8.00 Climax Newcastle (Str)
      ( on system ok drawn )
      Today 8.00 Novabridge Newcastle (Str)
      Today 8.00 Windforpower (IRE) Newcastle (Str)
      both on system good draw )
      Today 8.00 High Anxiety Newcastle (Str)
      ( on system but bad draw )

      pick the bones outta that little lot 😉
      gl/gb : )

    2. 7.00 Newcastle 10 Robotique Danseur (FR)
      ( correction it is not on my “trimmed” k burke aw system and well drawn … lol 🙁 )
      so of course it will now scoot up by a country mile !!

      gl/gb 🙂

      1. The one thing that stands out is that we both like Rey Loopy, plus Colin has tipped it 🙂 aside from that we differ completely!! I’m sensing few bets but will be back later.

  20. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    F 2.40 – The Happy Chappy on 1st run @ 4
    aw
    N 8.30 – Rantan on 4th run @ 12
    GL

  21. COLINS BETS
    2.00 Lingfield Golden Guest BOG 9/2
    6.30 Newcastle Insurplus BOG 7/2
    ELITE BETS
    2.30 Lingfield Kraka BOG 4/1
    4.10 Lingfield Albert Finney BOG 9/4

    NEW METHOD
    Fontwell
    2.40 The Happy Chappy BOG 7/2
    4.50 Truckers Tangle BOG 7/2
    Newcastle
    6.30 Insurplus BOG 7/2
    7.30 Rey Loopy BOG 5/1
    Colin

      1. Ken
        5 winners in total one duplicated.
        Colins bets Insurplus
        Elite 2 winners Kraka and Albert Finney
        New Method 2 winners Insurplus and Rey Loopy
        And you are recording the bets, the mind boggles or is it too much booze in Turkey!!!!
        Are the shoe shine boys still there, gave them equivalent to a £1 in 1992 and there was a mass punch up between them all, not a nice experience, although it was our fault giving them to much, just a £1.
        Did you receive the pictures of myself with Ruby Walsh at Cheltenham walking the course all 2 1/2 miles of it in slip on shoes, he took the -iss, but what a gentleman he was, bar he had a 7/1 winner and never mentioned it, what a banker! Ha Ha, no he was a lovely down to earth guy.
        Colin.

        1. I have a bit of catching up with recording them after a week in Turkey! I don’t count duplicates and I don’t bet below 3/1 as you know, so missed AF but well done. You’ve hit the crossbar a few times recently so nice to see a few go in.

          Fabulous trip to Turkey. Best golf holiday ever. Fantastic hotel and terrific standard golf courses. Can’t wait to go back next year. A few sherbets were drunk along the way but what goes on tour stays on tour haha. They do still have the shoeshine boys but I’m from Fife. We’re almost as tight as Yorkies so no business for them from us 🙂

          I did see your email while I was away but forgot to reply when I got home. Sounds like you had a great day.

  22. Poor day yesterday, will catch up on results later.

    SYSTEM BETS

    1pt win – 2.20 W – Constancio
    1pt win – 3.45 F – Cybalko
    1pt win – 3.55 W – Lough Salt

    HCAP CHASE BETS

    2.40 F – Newtown Lad

  23. LAMBOURN TRAINERS
    2.00 Lingfield Bin Daahir BOG 9/1 Charles Hills
    Fontwell
    4.20 Manning Estate BOG 10/3 Oliver Sherwood
    5.20 Republican BOG 6/1 Oliver Sherwood
    Thats it for today no updates.
    Colin

  24. Hi all, my three for today.

    WETHERBY 15:25 SUGGESTION
    WETHERBY 16:30 CORNBOROUGH
    WETHERBY 17:05 BIBICAL

    G.L.

  25. emmmm …. my sensible and confused head on .. i was absorbing silvers and martins (and a few others) comments yesterday about handicap marks down yet the “OR” mark up ???
    Anyway can’t find away to show handicap marks being down on hrb ????
    but i came up with my gb alternative of :
    all weather / certain tracks / certain months
    weight carrying now = less
    but
    OR = higher
    and this is in non handicaps races ??????????? ( how does that work ??)

    Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races ROI(SP) P/L(BF)
    105 29 27.62 84.05 45 42.86 61 80.05 140.52

    answers on a postcard please ?? 🙂

    happily bemusing himself gb 🙂

    1. grrr… copy n paste gone to pot .. also that was over a 3 year period and has made profit each year ???
      just saying 😉
      gl/gb

      1. You need to get your head out of hrb and get on with your shipping, or you’ll be getting a slap from Mrs GB 🙂

        1. emmm ……. hav u got hidden cameras in gb towers mr mc ???????????? hah ha ha ..lol .. u know it ! 😉
          gb 🙂

  26. Yo George B, I’ve just emerged from a darkened room with a wet towel round my head after looking at your longlist, plus ingestion of mind altering substances and I’m just about ready to respond…..lol.

    5.55, respect your Uptendowntwo but like Echo with Nevada the danger.

    6.30 Insurplus and Dream of Discovery although Seek the Moon might be worth EW?

    7.00 I think your list just proves this is too competitive for a bet -:(

    7.30 Rey Loopy the one, agree Testa Rossa EW. Worried about Thaayar and Trevithick.

    8.00 Of your list like Windforpower and Nova.

    Should say I am suffering from seconditis today so tread carefully my friend, be lucky and more importantly….be careful 🙂

    Laters G

    1. l.o. mc …………… well well ….brilliant work on cherries at dawn ….. nice windfall of them into my betfart account 🙂

      bestest rgds
      gb 😉

  27. 4 placed yesterday so only an £8 loss!
    2:10 F Percy Prosecco
    3:05 L Captain Lars
    4:20 F Manning Estate
    4:30 W Cornborough
    5:05 W Biblical
    6:30 N Sulafat
    7:45 D Mutadaawel

    £24 staked (10p e/w)
    -£67.48

  28. Chess grand master/sheisdiesel
    6:45 Dundalk
    Reverse forecast.

    Both are equal on my pace/speed system (still work in progress).
    I think chess grand master has edge on form but I don’t think sheisdiesel will not be far away
    Possible danger Chaparral Dream.

  29. first of about 3 races i am looking at tonight 😉 :

    7.00 Newcastle 1 Astonished (IRE)
    ( on system and worthy favourite )
    Newcastle 6 Hikayay
    (on system right month / track / trainer good draw big price .. i like it e/w 4tbp !)
    Newcastle 8 Maid For Life
    (on system fair enough draw )
    Newcastle 11 Under The Storm
    ( on system but not well drawn ?? )
    Newcastle 10 Robotique Danseur (FR)
    ( also on my “trimmed” k burke aw system and well drawn )

    gl/gb 🙂

    1. month/track/jockey /trainer / stallion / distance system runners
      Today 5.55 Up Ten Down Two (IRE) Newcastle (LH)
      ( not brilliantly but not badly drawn trainer loves a winner/gamble here 😉 )
      Today 7.30 Rey Loopy (IRE) Newcastle (Str)
      ( on system good draw )
      Today 7.30 Trinity Star (IRE) Newcastle (Str
      (on system not such a good draw ??? )
      Today 7.30 Testa Rossa (IRE) Newcastle (Str)
      (on system not such a good draw ??? )
      Today 8.00 Climax Newcastle (Str)
      ( on system ok drawn )
      Today 8.00 Novabridge Newcastle (Str)
      Today 8.00 Windforpower (IRE) Newcastle (Str)
      both on system good draw )
      Today 8.00 High Anxiety Newcastle (Str)
      ( on system but bad draw )

      pick the bones outta that little lot 😉
      gl/gb : )

    2. 7.00 Newcastle 10 Robotique Danseur (FR)
      ( correction it is not on my “trimmed” k burke aw system and well drawn … lol 🙁 )
      so of course it will now scoot up by a country mile !!

      gl/gb 🙂

      1. The one thing that stands out is that we both like Rey Loopy, plus Colin has tipped it 🙂 aside from that we differ completely!! I’m sensing few bets but will be back later.

  30. just noticed r brisland has sent 1 runner to newcastle 8.00 bluella ??? me old fave 4tbp .. for me i reckon ??
    the plot thickens 🙂
    gb

    1. Seems to have little chance on form? But pshaw, we have bunce to spare now Rey Loopy has gone in 🙂 🙂

  31. Yo George B, I’ve just emerged from a darkened room with a wet towel round my head after looking at your longlist, plus ingestion of mind altering substances and I’m just about ready to respond…..lol.

    5.55, respect your Uptendowntwo but like Echo with Nevada the danger.

    6.30 Insurplus and Dream of Discovery although Seek the Moon might be worth EW?

    7.00 I think your list just proves this is too competitive for a bet -:(

    7.30 Rey Loopy the one, agree Testa Rossa EW. Worried about Thaayar and Trevithick.

    8.00 Of your list like Windforpower and Nova.

    Should say I am suffering from seconditis today so tread carefully my friend, be lucky and more importantly….be careful 🙂

    Laters G

    1. l.o. mc …………… well well ….brilliant work on cherries at dawn ….. nice windfall of them into my betfart account 🙂

      bestest rgds
      gb 😉

        1. blimey again .. hail the new king of the aw .. well done mc .. you have set the evening up nicely 🙂 on y va !!

          gb 🙂 in awe 🙂

          1. u really have got cctv on me haven’t u …. now get back to your form figures man !! 😉
            keep up the good work !!!
            we’ve only got southwell again tomorrow night !!! 😉

            gl/gb 🙂

  32. just noticed r brisland has sent 1 runner to newcastle 8.00 bluella ??? me old fave 4tbp .. for me i reckon ??
    the plot thickens 🙂
    gb

    1. Seems to have little chance on form? But pshaw, we have bunce to spare now Rey Loopy has gone in 🙂 🙂

  33. GAME OF STONES
    Only the most innovative ploys will be successful
    (DA da’ da’ DA da, da da DA da)

    So, with two days to go to yet another War of the Flat it’s good to know the members of House Racing to Profit are equipping themselves with the latest in cerebral thinking and cutting edge innovation. Why go down untrodden paths of research to defeat the enemy when you can join the masses in tuning into the ramblings of a trainer who more than likely hasn’t even looked at the form of the other runners in the race. I’m sorry I’m the one who has to relay the bad news but betting jollies in any form or system is like standing in the main square and pulling your pants down. This website should be strong enough to put forlorn theories and plans to the sword within seconds of being posted before others get infected with the virus ( oh!! Sorry that’s another series ( embarrassing smiley) Before the inevitable post ” well you’re so good, you tell us how it’s done” I will remind people I pay Josh a subscription for access to a site I hope grows in stature, not to inform arse scratchers, what time is it, what day is it, let’s get a tip, a viable method of selecting winners.(grin)

    I think this Flat season will be the hardest ever as I believe the whole game of betting has moved so fast over the last year with almost every punter arming themselves with some sort of software that highlights certain losers and potential winners. While this is fine in principle, the problem is these stats produce early bets on bookmakers prices. As we know, the books don’t take significant money for long so prices are shortened for very little and a fairly solid market is therefore built on statistics. Betfair is just full of Bots now where most are just clueless punters that used to be losers are now trying their hand at laying in markets with no liquidity, then with 15 minutes to go the bigger boys move in with their trading. It’s only the last minute when the rats jump ship, where the trading money disappears that the real market surfaces. Very few big drifters win at this time.

    I really don’t see why members carry on with this farce of logging BOG or even early prices, it’s like the clowns trying to fool the idiots, I see our Leader in this instance has never once in my memory overstepped what was a most available price. My own very few selections have shown a 4 times over SP profit but there are many other bets I don’t make because of not getting the early price. So a new approach is needed, one which is totally contrarian. The Herd now has the technology, the books don’t even employ odds makers any more as we idiots form the market for peanuts. I personally think very few punters will survive this year as humans are programmed to believe data and certainly the younger of us are wired into the technology.

    A word on Class. Class is just one aspect of finding a winner and should be used only as a pointer to the bigger picture. Generally a drop in class means a loss of form or at times because a horse hasn’t had its optimum running traits. I feel it’s very rare a horse falls from Class 2 or 3 other than a loss of form, trainers cannot afford for these horses to drop. Horses dropping from class 4/5/6 should be taken taken with the (salt) this is the epitome of greyhound racing. Generally I mark a class dropper and a look at its form can usually tell the story. Look for bad draws, wrong ground, slow pace. If there are excuses then you have a potential bet, not a stat. Don’t forget the hoss that goes up in class, it could be an improver. Generally I’d say look at the market last time out, was it bet? Did it quicken to win ( BTW, if you see quicken in any form, make a note) Remember, PACE,PACE, PACE, everything else goes out the window if there’s none. Don’t bet unless you have an angle for no pass. GOING: most hoss’s go in anything so don’t be over tough unless there’s concrete evidence. DISTANCE: is purely down to pace and how hosses travel. Thats why I only bet Horses to 1 mile.

    Some of us are going to be lost on this new flat journey and only people who learn and improve their own betting will survive. Try to be contrarian and read between the form lines, 2 lengths loss in a group 3 can be lost in the stats becauce it shows 0/3 in a class 2 hcap. Don’t be that stupid loser that thinks a portfolio is the answer, it’s a curse. My advice is use this website as a place of informed opinion that you can use to build your own individual base for bets.

  34. Chess grand master/sheisdiesel
    6:45 Dundalk
    Reverse forecast.

    Both are equal on my pace/speed system (still work in progress).
    I think chess grand master has edge on form but I don’t think sheisdiesel will not be far away
    Possible danger Chaparral Dream.

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