Members Daily Post: 28/03/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Newcastle

2.00 –

Rubytwo   (all Hc’s) 30 H3 I3 G3 2/1 S4  UP

Lady Kyria   (micro class) 14 G3 9/2 WON

2.30 –

Straidnahanna   (m dist) 5/1 UP

Jet Master   (m TJC)  w2 H3 G3 10/1 S1 S2 fell

3.05 –

Christmas in Usa   (m’s TJC and class)  w1  w2 H1 I1 11/2 

Dance of Fire   (m class) 16/1 S2A

3.35 – Harleys Max   (m’s TJC and class) 16/1 S2A

 

Warwick

3.15 –

A Little Magic   (all Hc’s, m LTO)  w2 H3 G1 11/2 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Bandsman   (m dist) I3 11/2 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

4.50 – Maitree Express   (1st NHF) 13/2 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: +2.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 3/52,16p, -23)

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Daily Tips

2.40 Warw – Turbotim – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365/888) 14/1 (gen) PU 10/1..ah well it was a poke, but clearly he’s just a bit disappointing at the moment, beaten a long way out sadly, fading as they hit the back straight second time. A good run from the 3rd, who must have a chase in him. Stayed well enough, wonder if they may be more aggressive NTO.

that’s all for today, 08.50, write up …

 

This one needs some explaining and it’s very much a stats based case, and that of the trainer’s MO. Firstly he appeared in one of my micros I track – it’s a simple one, M Scudamore Handicap Chases (inc novice), NOT between April-Sept (so the ‘main’ jumps season… 20/1< SP guide –  34/127, 56p, +108 BFSP in recent years. That was the ‘way in’.

When digging a bit further… in Novice handicap chases with those yet to run over fences – he’s 8/32, 13p, +25.  So, he knows how to ready one for chase debut and interestingly doesn’t mess around in novice chases with some of these lower grade handicappers. He’s also 9/25,13p, +14 with his 6 year old handicap chasers, and the rest pattern is fine, a positive if nothing else… he’s 12/65, 25p, +15 with handicap chasers returning 60+ days in the last 5 years, that improves to 5/19,8p, +8 when they return over 24f. I think they have been waiting for better ground…

The horse…

Well i’ll start with the Sire, as it’s all about fences with his offspring, and it’s all about decent ground. His sire’s offspring are 15/68, 23p over fences in the last two years, 11/56, 18p in handicap chases. The stats are so much better than over hurdles/NHF. Looking through those winners, nearly all of them have been on good ground and given the sire is USA bred, that’s no surprise.

The horse is doing a few things different – he runs over fences for the first time (and having watched his last few runs back, he’s some unit – definitely a chaser). His mark is dropping, Tom Scu jumps back on, he’s had his break, it’s his 2nd run after a wind op and he also gets 1st blinkers for good measure. They have raced him prominently on recent starts and I can only assume they’ll be aggressive on him here.

He has shown some ability- that Hereford run 3 starts back was his best, and his only run on proper decent ground. There was promise there. He was 10l behind the winner who got an opening mark of 123, and he was 3 1/4 L behind a Hobbs horse who got a mark of 117. Now, they haven’t run well enough since to suggest those marks are lenient, but even still, it makes his 85 look appealing, for when it all clicks. His run LTO in soft ground which he’d have hated, wasn’t too bad. He was in there pitching as they turned for home.

Clearly he has plenty of questions to answer here and it’s a dart. 14s is just ok – his price started moving having been a bit bigger – but market support is a positive with theirs I think, and one with this profile anyway – their handicap chasers sent off 22/1+ are 2/128 since 2003, so if he drifts back out that could be a concern. I still think his price is ok, as IF it all clicks, which everything above suggests it might, then he could be thrown in here.

Of course, he may clatter the first, hate the blinkers, and he may not even stay. But, I thought he looked interesting at a price, in a pretty rubbish race.

Of the rest… I looked at Daneur Du Large for a time as he’s won a few points on decent ground and does run as if he has to go LH. Interesting that Sam is on when his dad has a runner in this. The yard are a bit hit and miss and if you take out Dawson’s City, they’re not the most prolific of outfits. I just wanted to see a bit more from this one and I wasn’t sure if he was well handicapped or how he good he is. But he does race up there, and of the other double figure priced ones is interesting.

Silent Encore is interesting but he’s a maiden, and taking single figure odds on those is always a danger – but his trainer’s last 4 runners have all won (that could be the reason for his price, more so than the horse’s chance) but he may have hated soft LTO. He has been held up in his races, which I don’t like at the best of times but certainly not here over fences. He could go well but i’ll leave him.

Magic River could be a proper poke at 25s- you don’t have much to go on, bar the trainer being 4/10,6p with all his chasers in the last 2 years – very selective, but effective it would seem. This one is a point winner though, who goes chasing under rules for first time, CP on, up in trip, 3rd run back after a lengthy absence – there was some promise LTO having watched it back. I may have some change on the machine just in case, but he has enough questions. If he starts to be backed he could be even more interesting.

I was happy to take on the top 3 in the market in a race like this. Webber’s horse has a stamina question, and so is short enough. Fifty Shades would be the one for me of the top 3 but he’s now on a career high mark, can be ridden further back than ideal and Warwick is a bit different to Fakenham. But he’s in form, and generally jumps well. And he stays. So, he is the solid one in this but he’s open to attack from anything that may now take a leap forward. I can take on Cooper’s Square and if he wins so be it, but his jumping has been suspect on all recent chase runs. If he jumps well, then he’ll go close, but if you get out of sync around here, you’re in trouble.

best of luck

Josh

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.40 W – Vouvray

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

3.45 W – Coup De Pinceau

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Aintree Grand National 2019 Stats Pack: Complete… READ HERE>>>

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Big Meeting Notes: Doncaster Lincoln Meeting > trainer pointers + stats/trends for the big handicap >>> READ HERE>>> 

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AINTREE TICKETS AVAILABLE….

Due to a change in my race-day plans at Aintree, i’ve got two tickets now spare, that i’m happy to re-sell at face value…

1. Thursday/Day 1: Princess Royal Roof £55

2. Saturday/Day 3/ GN Day: Lord Sefton Terrace £100.00

If you would like either/both of them, do get in touch, racingtoprofit@gmail.com . First come first serve. If noone on here wants them, i’ll try other avenues but thought i’d offer as i’ll no longer be using them.

Josh

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Blessed To Empress… she goes again on Thursday, at Chelmsford. She’s still to prove she stays, but this is 142 yards shorter than LTO, and she faded late. It looks a tough race, with a few progressive/in form horses in this who could be better than their current marks. She didn’t get in a race earlier in the week over 7f, so we are just going to run her in this. I think she may get 8f at somewhere like Brighton, downhill, but 7f does look her trip. I couldn’t recommend you backing her, but as I own a share, obviously i’ll be having an EW nibble at 12s/14s, but more so in hope than expectation. She should be bang there entering the final furlong, and then we shall see. I suspect there are stronger stayers in this, and she is what she is, around this mark. I recorded a video preview for members of the syndicate that you can watch below if you wish. It’s ‘only’ 12 minutes long, which is good for me 🙂 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

107 Comments

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  • I am thinking of starting a project with a friend, who is a programmer, to build our own ratings algorithm to provide horse racing tips. I know a bit of SQL and he knows SQL and Python. It will be a bit trial and error and we will have to see how it goes re being profit making. I will be happy to share the selections on here.

    I wanted to generally pick some brains. I do not want to over complicate it and so only pick up on the more relevant factors to build into the algorithm. I have my own ideas but what do you think that the most relevant elements are for the algorithm to put into the mix? Form is obviously one but what are the others?

    What about data sources to use? I have personal preferences but would like to know what others think is the best source to take data from?

    Thanks Martin

    martin colwell 11/08/19 11:40 PM Reply


    • Hi Martin…sounds interesting I can only suggest criteria I use in making selections regarding horses: 1. won at the same distance. 2. won at the race course. 3. won on the going. 4. won at a higher class or won at the same class. 5. won or had a good run (placed ) within last 40 days. 6. Well handicapped i.e has won or been placed within 6 to 14lbs of current days rate. Have recently been tracking horses dropping 1 class (see todays qualifiers below) which go off favs on the day, so would include horses dropping one class. I like checking trainers and jockeys who do well in certain races and use the free Racing Post information on each race to see who has the best percentages. Hope this is useful. All the best with the project.

      silver 12/08/19 1:16 AM Reply


      • OK thanks, most helpful. I had some similar thoughts to you but also need something enlightening that is extra to make it more successful than the stuff that is out there already. It will be trial and error in testing to get it to work. I do have a data source to interrogate but would be interested if anyone else likes a particular data source. I need to write a project plan and hopefully start mid/late April onward?

        martin colwell 12/08/19 4:28 AM Reply


        • Hi Martin, not sure whether this is the sort of thing that you’re thinking of but I believe you to be a Geegeez gold subscriber and they’ve just introduced rpr on their racecards. This morning sp2a gave a tip in the 4.50 and when I looked at the card I noticed that on last run rpr had gone up and hcap rating had gone down . I thought t o myself that might be an angle worth exploring and lo and behold it won! Now, there may well be hundreds of these “qualifiers” every day making it a totally unviable proposition but just in case there aren’t and it’s the sort of thing you were thinking of I thought I’d mention it. Good luck and I look forward to your trial results.

          westy2 12/08/19 12:18 PM Reply


    • Hi Martin..As promised here are the details of pace and speed ratings calculations i worked out around 8 years ago. Apologies for the length but there is no short cut.
      The basic principal was to assess the average time a horse runs over a certain distance and on certain ground and at different race courses. I use the free racing post site for race times.
      1. Divide rp times by exact distances eg. 5f 7yds = 1107 yds (220 yds = 1furlong)=5.031 furlongs. Run time =61.10 secs. Divide by 5.031 = 12.144 seconds per furlong average run time over the distance. Sectional timing would reveal if the pace was slow early on and reveal which horse quickened during the course of the race.
      2. Factoring in going allowances. Firm going can actually slow horses down as some horses are sensitive and will not let themselves down as it hurts them so ADD .2 secs. per furlong. gd/firm subtract .17spf. good subtract .2 spf. gd/yld and gs/soft subtract .3 spf. yld subtract .45 spf. soft subtract .65 spf. very soft subtract .925 spf. heavy subtract 1.2 spf.
      These are not exact but give a good guide to times of races when checking them against racing post standard times.
      3. Weight Allowances. Not much of a believer in weight stopping a horse except in soft and heavy going over longer distances but have included this. Weight allowance calculated at one pound additional weight = 0.0001897 seconds lost per yard or .167 seconds per length which equates to 2.5lbs per length on handicapping figures.

      Worked example: 5f 7yds =5.031 furlongs run on gd/soft = rpstd time for the race = 58.65 secs (11.65 secs per furlong). The actual run time = 61.10 secs. Race distances 5.031 f x .3 gd/soft going allowance = 1.5093. Subtract from actual run time = 59.59. Divide this by distance of 5.031f = 11.84 secs per furlong average run time. Subtract the standard time of 11.65spf from actual run time of 11.84spf (which includes going allowance calculation) and we can see that this was a slower than average race by .19 spf. or .95 secs slow over the distance in relation to the standard time the should have been run at.
      Nick Mordin in his book “On Time” uses Universal Standard Times over different distances to form a base line of comparison i.e 5 furlong races = 0.58 secs = 11.62 spf = 38.72 mph. He use class of race to factor in speed of race based on secs per mile as lowere class races are generally run by slowere horses but this can be misleading. Additionally he makes a calculation for Fillies and Mares races run by 2 yo at different times of the year. You would have to factor in course adjustments, too, over every distance and over every uk and Irish race course…NH and Flat, to get accurate comparable times. For example, over 5 fulongs Epsom std time = 54.90 whereas Windsor = 58.57 over the same distance , Sandown = 59.47 etc .
      Quite an undertaking, Martin and wish you all the very best and if you want further info from me about the above figures will be happy to help if I can.

      silver 12/08/19 1:06 AM Reply


  • Tips – 2.20 WOL, Maid Millie, 2 points each way at 8/1. An unexposed horse who stayed on at six furlongs last time out and now steps up to seven furlongs. Robert Cowell trained and Luke Morris on board. Likely to be out paced and come with a rattle at the end. Hopefully the horse will get a clear round.
    5.05 WOL, Herm, 2 points win at 5/1 and being backed. The horse returns to a tapeta surface that it prefers. Stepping up in distance which should suit.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 11/08/19 11:40 PM Reply


  • Lambourn Trainers, well that went to plan 3 mentions and 3 winners what a start, from the trainers i trust.
    11/4 ,SP 9/4
    4/1 SP 5/2
    2/1 SP 5/1 what a drift, this one was put up late from the Osborne yard, so for evening meetings would check on here an hour before first race to see if any late updates.
    Colin.

    cleafe 11/08/19 11:40 PM Reply


    • Excellent Colin – what a start, very encouraging for you 🙂

      John Unitt 12/08/19 1:16 AM Reply


  • I have been tracking horses dropping one class and which go off as favs. This gives a way in to try and find short priced winners…I have excluded odds on selections. Todays selections are as follows together with prices at 21.30 last night.

    14.10. Warwick. Juge Et Parti. 2/1
    15.35. Newc. Bafana Blue: 5/4
    16.10. Newc. Oscar Wilde: 2/1
    16.20. Warw. Marinero: 1/1
    16.30. Wolvs: Ustath: 7/4.

    Initial results need to be monitored but would hope that this will prove a reliable way of making short priced selections profitable. Caution advised. Gd lck if playing.

    silver 11/08/19 11:40 PM Reply


    • You’ll need more filters than favs dropping down a grade, Silver.
      That approach isn’t profitable at SP or BSP, I’m afraid.

      traf69 12/08/19 1:16 AM Reply


    • As a general point my experience tells me that systems involving backing favourites do not make a profit. The hit rate is too high in a competitive sport such as horse racing.

      martin colwell 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


    • Not a system to follow given the results and very important info from Martin and Traf69. The class drop system does have legs though with Reflektor winning the 15.55 Wolvs and Diomede Des Mottes winning 14.10 Warwick….this was down 4 classes…just a question of finding a way into class droppers along with other criteria (trainer, jockey etc) so search continues.

      silver 12/08/19 12:44 AM Reply


  • I am thinking of starting a project with a friend, who is a programmer, to build our own ratings algorithm to provide horse racing tips. I know a bit of SQL and he knows SQL and Python. It will be a bit trial and error and we will have to see how it goes re being profit making. I will be happy to share the selections on here.

    I wanted to generally pick some brains. I do not want to over complicate it and so only pick up on the more relevant factors to build into the algorithm. I have my own ideas but what do you think that the most relevant elements are for the algorithm to put into the mix? Form is obviously one but what are the others?

    What about data sources to use? I have personal preferences but would like to know what others think is the best source to take data from?

    Thanks Martin

    martin colwell 27/03/19 7:06 PM Reply


    • Hi Martin…sounds interesting I can only suggest criteria I use in making selections regarding horses: 1. won at the same distance. 2. won at the race course. 3. won on the going. 4. won at a higher class or won at the same class. 5. won or had a good run (placed ) within last 40 days. 6. Well handicapped i.e has won or been placed within 6 to 14lbs of current days rate. Have recently been tracking horses dropping 1 class (see todays qualifiers below) which go off favs on the day, so would include horses dropping one class. I like checking trainers and jockeys who do well in certain races and use the free Racing Post information on each race to see who has the best percentages. Hope this is useful. All the best with the project.

      silver 27/03/19 9:18 PM Reply


      • OK thanks, most helpful. I had some similar thoughts to you but also need something enlightening that is extra to make it more successful than the stuff that is out there already. It will be trial and error in testing to get it to work. I do have a data source to interrogate but would be interested if anyone else likes a particular data source. I need to write a project plan and hopefully start mid/late April onward?

        martin colwell 27/03/19 9:41 PM Reply


        • Hi Martin, not sure whether this is the sort of thing that you’re thinking of but I believe you to be a Geegeez gold subscriber and they’ve just introduced rpr on their racecards. This morning sp2a gave a tip in the 4.50 and when I looked at the card I noticed that on last run rpr had gone up and hcap rating had gone down . I thought t o myself that might be an angle worth exploring and lo and behold it won! Now, there may well be hundreds of these “qualifiers” every day making it a totally unviable proposition but just in case there aren’t and it’s the sort of thing you were thinking of I thought I’d mention it. Good luck and I look forward to your trial results.

          westy2 27/03/19 10:20 PM Reply


          • OK thanks. Yes I have taken a look at rpr on geegeez and will give it some further thought. I need to give it some thought as to how such things would fit in to an algorithm based selection process. I dont want it turning out volumes of selections each day. I would prefer 5 to 10 selections on average each week.

            martin colwell 27/03/19 10:34 PM Reply


            • I can imagine price as a yearling could be very predictive in a horse’s first ten runs or so (probably not FTO), perhaps in conjunction with the number of runners the trainer has in a year (fewer the better). That would be quite a unique factor for your algorithm although how easily you can source the data is another matter.

              Francis 28/03/19 8:07 AM Reply


              • That is very interesting Francis. I think that data can be got and tested potentially. You only know when you try with these type of projects. Thanks for your thoughts.

                martin colwell 28/03/19 8:58 AM Reply


                • It’s an area I might become increasingly interested in Martin. I plan to do an introductory machine learning course in the summer. If I can get a basic proficiency then I work closely with a couple of very keen machine learners. Certainly if there propensity to lapse insurance model is anything to go by, they should be able to create something pretty powerful!

                  Francis 28/03/19 9:21 AM Reply


                  • I think that there is a gap in the market for something that actually does make a consistent profit. I do not think that there is anything out there that truly does this? I would be happy to be pointed in the direction of one that does though. I do have a potential backer if it works initially.
                    The guys on here do a great job with their tipping work, but even the best go in peaks and troughs and there is a need for something more consistent through a calendar year.
                    There is some thought that such algorithms work better on the all weather but I am not so convinced. Please pass on to me any thoughts you have on this subject area.

                    martin colwell 28/03/19 9:43 AM Reply


                • Hi Martin,
                  When I first started on my 2yo obsession about 10 years ago I used price as a yearling as one of my stats. After 2 seasons I decided it was almost completely useless. If anything the situation is now probably worse as with so many of the big operations having lots of home breds running at lower grades.

                  Similarly for 2yos DOB is only important in April May and June.

                  For 2yos it is sire and the calendar of that sires runners, trainer and jockey that are the strongest indicators, clearly as the season matures form and experience also comes into it but for debutants up to the end of June sire, trainer and jockey are the keys.
                  Hugh

                  alpha2 28/03/19 1:38 PM Reply


                  • Agree with everything you say there Hugh. I think where the yearling price might come into it is a bit later down the line, perhaps as a 3YO. Once a horse has had a few runs, I think the majority of punters will evaluate their chance purely on that, which is likely a mistake!

                    What made me think of it is there is an exceptional tipster on Twitter who says that price as a yearling is the first thing he looks at when he is having a bet. Maybe the horse has shown nothing and he sees a glimmer of promise from an expensive yearling on a recent run. Or perhaps a stable has been out of form…it is the expensive yearlings that are the ones he focuses on when they return to form.

                    If I was Martin I would be tempted to focus on a particular race type. Personally I find maidens and bumpers to be my most profitable races by some way.

                    Francis 28/03/19 7:20 PM Reply


            • Sounds like a very interesting project Martin, I love this kind of stuff. I did a mini investigation into ratings several years ago (they weren’t Geegeez to be fair), and found that their integrity (in terms of usefulness for selection purposes), was highly correlated to the race conditions that the rating in question was achieved in. Very difficult routine to automate it has to be said.

              Not saying that ratings are of no use, just saying that they have to be taken into the context of the race conditions on the day. Same as most all other factors I guess.

              Tim Hanson 28/03/19 10:33 AM Reply


    • Hi Martin..As promised here are the details of pace and speed ratings calculations i worked out around 8 years ago. Apologies for the length but there is no short cut.
      The basic principal was to assess the average time a horse runs over a certain distance and on certain ground and at different race courses. I use the free racing post site for race times.
      1. Divide rp times by exact distances eg. 5f 7yds = 1107 yds (220 yds = 1furlong)=5.031 furlongs. Run time =61.10 secs. Divide by 5.031 = 12.144 seconds per furlong average run time over the distance. Sectional timing would reveal if the pace was slow early on and reveal which horse quickened during the course of the race.
      2. Factoring in going allowances. Firm going can actually slow horses down as some horses are sensitive and will not let themselves down as it hurts them so ADD .2 secs. per furlong. gd/firm subtract .17spf. good subtract .2 spf. gd/yld and gs/soft subtract .3 spf. yld subtract .45 spf. soft subtract .65 spf. very soft subtract .925 spf. heavy subtract 1.2 spf.
      These are not exact but give a good guide to times of races when checking them against racing post standard times.
      3. Weight Allowances. Not much of a believer in weight stopping a horse except in soft and heavy going over longer distances but have included this. Weight allowance calculated at one pound additional weight = 0.0001897 seconds lost per yard or .167 seconds per length which equates to 2.5lbs per length on handicapping figures.

      Worked example: 5f 7yds =5.031 furlongs run on gd/soft = rpstd time for the race = 58.65 secs (11.65 secs per furlong). The actual run time = 61.10 secs. Race distances 5.031 f x .3 gd/soft going allowance = 1.5093. Subtract from actual run time = 59.59. Divide this by distance of 5.031f = 11.84 secs per furlong average run time. Subtract the standard time of 11.65spf from actual run time of 11.84spf (which includes going allowance calculation) and we can see that this was a slower than average race by .19 spf. or .95 secs slow over the distance in relation to the standard time the should have been run at.
      Nick Mordin in his book “On Time” uses Universal Standard Times over different distances to form a base line of comparison i.e 5 furlong races = 0.58 secs = 11.62 spf = 38.72 mph. He use class of race to factor in speed of race based on secs per mile as lowere class races are generally run by slowere horses but this can be misleading. Additionally he makes a calculation for Fillies and Mares races run by 2 yo at different times of the year. You would have to factor in course adjustments, too, over every distance and over every uk and Irish race course…NH and Flat, to get accurate comparable times. For example, over 5 fulongs Epsom std time = 54.90 whereas Windsor = 58.57 over the same distance , Sandown = 59.47 etc .
      Quite an undertaking, Martin and wish you all the very best and if you want further info from me about the above figures will be happy to help if I can.

      silver 28/03/19 11:47 AM Reply


      • Excellent stuff. Well done on what you have done. I think we need to keep any algorithm tidy without too many steps but what you have said is most useful.

        martin colwell 28/03/19 12:20 PM Reply


        • You are welcome. Totally agree about keeping things as simple as possible and not over complicating criteria…getting the balance is the tricky bit.

          silver 28/03/19 1:56 PM Reply


  • Tips – 2.20 WOL, Maid Millie, 2 points each way at 8/1. An unexposed horse who stayed on at six furlongs last time out and now steps up to seven furlongs. Robert Cowell trained and Luke Morris on board. Likely to be out paced and come with a rattle at the end. Hopefully the horse will get a clear round.
    5.05 WOL, Herm, 2 points win at 5/1 and being backed. The horse returns to a tapeta surface that it prefers. Stepping up in distance which should suit.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 27/03/19 8:02 PM Reply


  • Lambourn Trainers, well that went to plan 3 mentions and 3 winners what a start, from the trainers i trust.
    11/4 ,SP 9/4
    4/1 SP 5/2
    2/1 SP 5/1 what a drift, this one was put up late from the Osborne yard, so for evening meetings would check on here an hour before first race to see if any late updates.
    Colin.

    cleafe 27/03/19 8:49 PM Reply


    • Excellent Colin – what a start, very encouraging for you 🙂

      John Unitt 27/03/19 8:55 PM Reply


  • I have been tracking horses dropping one class and which go off as favs. This gives a way in to try and find short priced winners…I have excluded odds on selections. Todays selections are as follows together with prices at 21.30 last night.

    14.10. Warwick. Juge Et Parti. 2/1
    15.35. Newc. Bafana Blue: 5/4
    16.10. Newc. Oscar Wilde: 2/1
    16.20. Warw. Marinero: 1/1
    16.30. Wolvs: Ustath: 7/4.

    Initial results need to be monitored but would hope that this will prove a reliable way of making short priced selections profitable. Caution advised. Gd lck if playing.

    silver 27/03/19 9:32 PM Reply


    • You’ll need more filters than favs dropping down a grade, Silver.
      That approach isn’t profitable at SP or BSP, I’m afraid.

      traf69 28/03/19 12:09 AM Reply


      • Hi Traf 69…Appreciate the info as always a bonus to get feed back…if favs not profitable I did notice horses priced up 10/1 or lower were more likely to win though the other day a 20/1 shot went in….so could put on odds filter on the selections…usually the head of the market i.e first three in the betting come in but have no way of verifying this…wanted something easy and simple but if the favs not profitable perhaps there is another way ?? Thanks for the feedback.

        silver 28/03/19 10:27 AM Reply


    • As a general point my experience tells me that systems involving backing favourites do not make a profit. The hit rate is too high in a competitive sport such as horse racing.

      martin colwell 28/03/19 10:13 AM Reply


      • Hi Martin…Thanks for input….just replied to Traf69 about putting in some filters odds 10/1 or less and including those at the head of the market i.e. first three in the betting to see how this goes but have no historical stats to verify if doing this is a way forward so will have to be trial and error. Further to your venture I have details of speed rating criteria and pace calculations I worked out if you are interested in going down that route…I know there are lots of systems based on this around but will do a separate post later today once I have all my workings out sorted into a readable document explaining the logic. If such info is helpful then fine , if not the genral info may be of value to members. All the best

        silver 28/03/19 10:37 AM Reply


        • Many thanks for your thoughts and in what you are looking at. I think that if you can attack horses priced between 5/1 and 20/1 you can reduce your target hit percentage and make a decent profit. I am always interested in others work. I think speed ratings do come in somewhere but I do worry about the lower level races that get run at a pace that would not be out of place in a park accompanied by chubby joggers. How do we identify those easily?
          You can email me at mcolwell1959@aol.com.

          martin colwell 28/03/19 11:12 AM Reply


          • Hi Martin…just posted a reply to original post detailing the way I have worked out pace and speed of horses. Thanks for this input, really helpful. Agree totally with what you are trying to achieve, consistency to eliminate the “gambling ” aspect to reduce the loss. Your thoughts about the class drop method very helpful and appreciated.

            silver 28/03/19 11:55 AM Reply


    • Not a system to follow given the results and very important info from Martin and Traf69. The class drop system does have legs though with Reflektor winning the 15.55 Wolvs and Diomede Des Mottes winning 14.10 Warwick….this was down 4 classes…just a question of finding a way into class droppers along with other criteria (trainer, jockey etc) so search continues.

      silver 28/03/19 4:58 PM Reply


  • just one selection today.
    Newcastle 3-05. Green Zone 8-1 1/2 pt ew, c+d winner dropping back in class acts on going, sky 4 places.

    Martin Whittle 11/08/19 11:40 PM Reply


    • BV going 9-1 4 places

      Martin Whittle 12/08/19 1:16 AM Reply


  • FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    +73.19

    I think I’ve used up my luck on these. Another low trade 1.06 yesterday.

    1pt win 2.40 W – boughtbeforelunch
    1pt win 4.40 N – theflickeringlight
    1pt win 4.50 W – thegallantway

    HCAP CHASE BETS

    -4.72

    Francis 12/08/19 12:44 AM Reply


    • This is really stupid of me but I forgot to check the price on thegallantway. If ou are yet to place your bed I would omit that one.

      Francis 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


  • Quiet Penny Newcastle 15:05 1pt e/w-I want to chance on this one at a big price. Ran OK in a hot looking bumper back in November where the 1st, 2nd and 6th won NTO and a number of the rest have placed. That was crucially the last time she ran on good ground which it should be pretty close to come 3PM today. She makes her handicap debut of an OK looking mark even based on some of her recent form against a largely exposed field I didn’t think she should be a 40/1 shot. Trainer does OK at the track and jockey is no mug for his 7lbs.

    nickmazur 12/08/19 12:44 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    No bet last few days got it right and today potential bet never won and way to short in the betting.
    ELITE BETS
    3.25 Wolverhampton Yusra BOG 7/2
    5.30 Chelmsford Benjamin Thomas BOG 10/1
    NEW METHOD
    3.05 Newcastle Lostock Hall BOG 7/2
    3.45 Warwick King Of Realms BOG 9/4
    Colin

    cleafe 12/08/19 12:44 AM Reply


  • Lambourn Trainers
    No bet today
    Had a good think about putting these up for some days the trainers put their thoughts up late, more than likely an issue in the stable causes this so no set time.
    Will put the trainers that i trust having watched them all for approx 4 months, by 10.30 if i can but check the forum 30 mins before the afternoons first race and then 30 mins before the evening meetings first race, more often than not they will be up by 10.30/11.00.
    After yesterdays success hopefully it will be wort the messing about, but time will tell, cannot get over Capofaro winning at 5/1 from 2/1, go onto luke harvey @leglockluke, think he won a few bob!!!
    Colin.

    cleafe 12/08/19 1:06 AM Reply


  • Today’s darts

    Newcastle
    2:00 Lady kyria

    Wolverhampton
    2:50 Gantier

    Chelmsford
    7:00 White coat
    7:30 Indian tygress

    Warren Bottomley 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


  • just one selection today.
    Newcastle 3-05. Green Zone 8-1 1/2 pt ew, c+d winner dropping back in class acts on going, sky 4 places.

    Martin Whittle 28/03/19 7:09 AM Reply


    • BV going 9-1 4 places

      Martin Whittle 28/03/19 7:31 AM Reply


      • bog 10-1,staked 1 pt ,returns 1.5 pts , up 0.5 pts

        Martin Whittle 28/03/19 6:48 PM Reply


  • 2:30 Newc Jet Master
    3:05 Newc Green Zone
    2:40 Warw Boughtbeforelunch
    2:20 Wolv Cheap Jack
    5:05 Wolv Herm
    8:00 Chelm Le Manege Enchante
    8:30 Chelm Kyllukey

    £24 stake (10p e/w)
    To date -£59.48.

    zico10 11/08/19 9:33 PM Reply


  • Anyone have any thoughts on the new geegeez features. I use TS and rpr ratings and is one of the reasons I don’t subscribe to gold personally as I can get them for free but being in one place is handy. Will it save time. Do I subcribe. Is there value in it because it’s not cheap.
    The bet tracker does look rather good.

    Warren Bottomley 12/08/19 1:06 AM Reply


    • This could come across as a sales pitch but I have no affiliation, honest ! Geegeez Gold is gold in my opinion. The existing features are great even though I don’t use them all and the ones that I do are probably not used to best effect but their real strength lies in their continual improvements and additions for me. Matt in particular seems to listen and act upon requests given from members/users and the more people with good ideas the more the site will develop I think.

      westy2 12/08/19 1:06 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    None

    Titus 28/03/19 9:08 AM Reply


  • FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    +73.19

    I think I’ve used up my luck on these. Another low trade 1.06 yesterday.

    1pt win 2.40 W – boughtbeforelunch
    1pt win 4.40 N – theflickeringlight
    1pt win 4.50 W – thegallantway

    HCAP CHASE BETS

    -4.72

    Francis 28/03/19 9:13 AM Reply


    • This is really stupid of me but I forgot to check the price on thegallantway. If ou are yet to place your bed I would omit that one.

      Francis 28/03/19 10:24 AM Reply


      • Or bets*

        Francis 28/03/19 10:24 AM Reply


  • 2.00 Newc’ Keep The River….. HCP

    That’s all for HCP today. Will be back about 3.30 with Non hcp prospects if any.

    Tim Hanson 11/08/19 9:33 PM Reply


  • Quiet Penny Newcastle 15:05 1pt e/w-I want to chance on this one at a big price. Ran OK in a hot looking bumper back in November where the 1st, 2nd and 6th won NTO and a number of the rest have placed. That was crucially the last time she ran on good ground which it should be pretty close to come 3PM today. She makes her handicap debut of an OK looking mark even based on some of her recent form against a largely exposed field I didn’t think she should be a 40/1 shot. Trainer does OK at the track and jockey is no mug for his 7lbs.

    nickmazur 28/03/19 9:19 AM Reply


  • “Well hello everyone , the wind is blowing, the sun is shining” and it’s busy morning here on the downs as the first batch go past me …………. well it is the south downs and it was only a couple of shetlands chasing a pony and trap. But hey ho on to today’s winners fresh from my probably ignored feast of winners from the frowned upon long list of runners yesterday 😉 (a bfsp profit most people would have been proud of 😉 )
    ………………….Nothing from me today …unless your name has the initials m.c. 😉

    George B 28/03/19 9:31 AM Reply


    • Murrell, Christopher anticipatory smiley.

      chrisiwyg 28/03/19 9:56 AM Reply


    • You had a stormer yesterday G, amazing. Glad we chose the same ona couple, boosted my bank 🙂

      Out now but looking at the AW later, laters potaters

      Mark Curtis 28/03/19 10:51 AM Reply


      • always a plaisir to work with some like minded amigo’s 🙂

        George B 28/03/19 11:40 AM Reply


    • NOT TIPS …… JUST MY USUAL MUSINGS OF A HUMBLE MAN 😉
      ok then .. as you asked so nicely 🙂 for all you mc’s out there :
      all signs positive are as follows according to my fisher price compooter :
      2.50 Wolverhampton No.4 Caplin 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
      3.55 Wolverhampton No.3 Areen Heart 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 ( E/W)
      4.30 Wolverhampton No.2 Mawakib 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
      and if i have any money left after these little shining diamonds …….
      5.05 Wolverhampton No.8 Captain Kissinger 🙂 ( e/w or tbp only = everything is ok except draw and month possibly ??:( )

      enjoy my all weather favourite learned friends you 🙂
      gl/gb 🙂
      keep on ……………………. 🙂
      p.s. can you please send back a winner to me mc mer sea …… just incase the above goes pete tong 🙁

      George B 28/03/19 11:37 AM Reply


      • Just an initial reslonse, Captain K hits 60% win 100% place stats for T/J over five years at course 🙂

        Mark Curtis 28/03/19 12:58 PM Reply


        • G, nothing much from me today. As I said, I like the t/j stats for Captain K although form not that inspiring?

          Agree on Areen Heart (t/j 50/60 over year ) but Fares Kodiac looks the danger so will save (40/60) over five years at course.

          Gonna double up Caplin and Mawakib, might have one last look at Chelmsford later, good luck amigo 🙂

          Mark Curtis 28/03/19 1:27 PM Reply


          • PAHH !! who cares about form my man !! …..( lol well most serious punters really .. but hey i like to sail against the wind whenever possible ……….. and just tac back whenever needed 🙂 ) Yep just some small acca’s for me ..let’s see 🙂
            Thanks for your input always welcome and always needed, appreciated 😉
            gl/gb 🙂

            George B 28/03/19 1:48 PM Reply


  • Had a little e/w nibble on
    Schnapps in the 2:20 wolves.

    Warren Bottomley 11/08/19 9:33 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    No bet last few days got it right and today potential bet never won and way to short in the betting.
    ELITE BETS
    3.25 Wolverhampton Yusra BOG 7/2
    5.30 Chelmsford Benjamin Thomas BOG 10/1
    NEW METHOD
    3.05 Newcastle Lostock Hall BOG 7/2
    3.45 Warwick King Of Realms BOG 9/4
    Colin

    cleafe 28/03/19 10:04 AM Reply


  • Hi all, my three for today.

    WOLVERHAMTON 14:20 FRENCH TWIST
    WARWICK 14:40 FIFTY SHADES
    WOLVERHAMTON 14:50 PARADISE BOY

    G.L.
    Solent

    solentmagpie 28/03/19 10:50 AM Reply


  • Lambourn Trainers
    No bet today
    Had a good think about putting these up for some days the trainers put their thoughts up late, more than likely an issue in the stable causes this so no set time.
    Will put the trainers that i trust having watched them all for approx 4 months, by 10.30 if i can but check the forum 30 mins before the afternoons first race and then 30 mins before the evening meetings first race, more often than not they will be up by 10.30/11.00.
    After yesterdays success hopefully it will be wort the messing about, but time will tell, cannot get over Capofaro winning at 5/1 from 2/1, go onto luke harvey @leglockluke, think he won a few bob!!!
    Colin.

    cleafe 28/03/19 10:51 AM Reply


  • Today’s darts

    Newcastle
    2:00 Lady kyria

    Wolverhampton
    2:50 Gantier

    Chelmsford
    7:00 White coat
    7:30 Indian tygress

    Warren Bottomley 28/03/19 11:07 AM Reply


  • 2:30 Newc Jet Master
    3:05 Newc Green Zone
    2:40 Warw Boughtbeforelunch
    2:20 Wolv Cheap Jack
    5:05 Wolv Herm
    8:00 Chelm Le Manege Enchante
    8:30 Chelm Kyllukey

    £24 stake (10p e/w)
    To date -£59.48.

    zico10 28/03/19 11:19 AM Reply


  • Hi Warren. It is only just under £5 a week if you pay annually. In my humble opinion
    it is worth every penny. It is a mine of information. Nearly as good as RTP.

    jc3152 11/08/19 9:33 PM Reply


  • Mothership to George B and any AW followers, I fancy a 4 point outlay at Chelmsford.

    5.30, Compass Point and My Town Chicago

    7.30, Puds and Rose Berry.

    Best of Luck, if Mawakib lands the Caplin double at 4.30 may increase the bet 🙂

    Mark Curtis 12/08/19 1:16 AM Reply


  • Anyone have any thoughts on the new geegeez features. I use TS and rpr ratings and is one of the reasons I don’t subscribe to gold personally as I can get them for free but being in one place is handy. Will it save time. Do I subcribe. Is there value in it because it’s not cheap.
    The bet tracker does look rather good.

    Warren Bottomley 28/03/19 12:06 PM Reply


    • Hi Warren, well I am biased as I don’t think anything compares to it – but then I do say that as someone who also uses HRB, and I subscribe to RP, mainly for the paper etc- but i have been using the analysis tools more, and for the video replays as all in one place – I have started using RPR more, after I watched a video Paul Kealy did with star sports I think, and I’ve tried to implement some of those ideas – in fact Beware The Bear and Coningsby would be two examples of me trying to use RPR better, given their LTO ratings were career bests, stood out in the races etc, and some indication their marks were fine etc.
      So, i’m pleased they are now in Gold as makes it so much quicker for me to see at a glace, if based on RPR say, a horse is improving on recent runs, or in what conditions their best figure was etc. An in fact, analysis wise, there’s probably no need for the RP now, for me anyway.

      I don’t think anything matches the gold cards – but at the same time if you have an approach that works for you using free resources, there’s a decision to be made. You can trial for £1 for 30 days still I think, plenty of time to get stuck in and work out if for you, and there are monthly options, so no long term commitment, and if you got to stage where you wanted to upgrade to annual, that’s a fair bit cheaper than monthly.
      The bet tracker will be a superb addition for sure.

      The only way to know is to try it for yourself. It may not be for you, but i’m pretty sure it will save time.

      You can take a look at link below.. yes yes, it’s an affiliate link, helps pay some of the bills haha. 🙂

      http://www.horseracingexperts.co.uk/affiliates/idevaffiliate.php?id=148_9_1_13

      Josh 28/03/19 12:35 PM Reply


    • I always think that Geegeez Gold is value for a serious punter. It does help me sort the wheat from the chaff. The rpr looks good but I have to give it more time to work out its real benefit.
      I think that the bet tracker is a bit time consuming for users and you have to fit your betting to suit it. Will people use it and keep it up to date? I have a spreadsheet that does the job and I can manipulate it and sort it and turn it into graphs etc. I think it does the job of reporting but not as pretty and as clear as the Geegeez product. Maybe because I update daily and re run my spreadsheet I have less of a need for this tracker? But I commend Geegeez for providing it to its subscribers. I would be interested in coming back to it three months down the line.

      martin colwell 28/03/19 12:39 PM Reply


    • Simple answer, Warren is that following Stat of the day will cover your subs, so you effectively get a free service, happy days. The new bet tracker isn’t as good as the one I built though!!

      chris 28/03/19 1:26 PM Reply


    • This could come across as a sales pitch but I have no affiliation, honest ! Geegeez Gold is gold in my opinion. The existing features are great even though I don’t use them all and the ones that I do are probably not used to best effect but their real strength lies in their continual improvements and additions for me. Matt in particular seems to listen and act upon requests given from members/users and the more people with good ideas the more the site will develop I think.

      westy2 28/03/19 3:04 PM Reply


  • Nice double up G 🙂

    Mark Curtis 11/08/19 9:33 PM Reply


    • ha ha ………. shorties i’ll give u that ……… but they still need finding 😉
      wd/gb 🙂

      George B 11/08/19 10:23 PM Reply


  • just going to have some loose shrapnel e/w and 4tbp on the gallantway in 16.50 w … price just too big for a brennan/o’brien runner for my liking ????
    gb 🙂

    George B 11/08/19 9:45 PM Reply


  • 2.00 Newc’ Keep The River….. HCP

    That’s all for HCP today. Will be back about 3.30 with Non hcp prospects if any.

    Tim Hanson 28/03/19 1:17 PM Reply


    • No more for from me today.

      Tim Hanson 28/03/19 3:37 PM Reply


  • well done mr mc 🙂
    We can do no wrong today … but tomorrow is another day of course 🙂
    well done on compass point ine runner sent there .. in it bolts .. terrific ride btw 🙂

    wd/gb 🙂

    George B 12/08/19 1:06 AM Reply


  • rice n chips tonight for me then …. back tomorrow by popular demand no doubt ? 😉 thanks for your help and confidence boosting today mc been good fun again for me ….. couldn’t / wouldn’t wanna do this without ya … ha ha 🙂
    now how does that millwall ditty go …….. something something …something .. i don’t care ! 🙂 lol gotta laugh 🙂
    goodnight ……………….

    George B 12/08/19 12:44 AM Reply


  • Had a little e/w nibble on
    Schnapps in the 2:20 wolves.

    Warren Bottomley 28/03/19 1:48 PM Reply


    • Hi Warren ,
      Don’t you mean tipple 🙂 .. got nothing in that race so i will have a look thanks 🙂
      and on the geegeez finggy …… I am still in love with hrb at the mo .. but when i grow up i guess ……. I will move into the professional grown ups world of geegeez .. i have heard it’s brilliant ? 🙂

      George B 28/03/19 1:54 PM Reply


      • I think it had a tipple before it run lol.

        Warren Bottomley 28/03/19 2:27 PM Reply


  • Hi Warren. It is only just under £5 a week if you pay annually. In my humble opinion
    it is worth every penny. It is a mine of information. Nearly as good as RTP.

    jc3152 28/03/19 3:48 PM Reply


  • Mothership to George B and any AW followers, I fancy a 4 point outlay at Chelmsford.

    5.30, Compass Point and My Town Chicago

    7.30, Puds and Rose Berry.

    Best of Luck, if Mawakib lands the Caplin double at 4.30 may increase the bet 🙂

    Mark Curtis 28/03/19 3:53 PM Reply


    • YEEBERS .. I NEARLY RETIRED THEN 🙂 / 🙁
      reading you loud and clear wingman mc 😉
      just didn’t get the split did it !! grrrrrrrr !!!!
      yep had just honed in on compass point ..brisland one runner at track ditty .. but he is much better for this on the flat than aw …. but in for a penny !!! 🙂
      let’s keep cracking on my man !!
      🙂
      gl/gb 🙂

      George B 28/03/19 4:01 PM Reply


      • message correction : nope gotta thata wronga .. better on the aw than flat … all systems go compass now pointing in the right direction ..lol 🙂
        gb/gl

        George B 28/03/19 4:20 PM Reply


    • 🙂

      George B 28/03/19 4:33 PM Reply


  • Nice double up G 🙂

    Mark Curtis 28/03/19 4:36 PM Reply


    • ha ha ………. shorties i’ll give u that ……… but they still need finding 😉
      wd/gb 🙂

      George B 28/03/19 4:38 PM Reply


  • just going to have some loose shrapnel e/w and 4tbp on the gallantway in 16.50 w … price just too big for a brennan/o’brien runner for my liking ????
    gb 🙂

    George B 28/03/19 4:39 PM Reply


  • well done mr mc 🙂
    We can do no wrong today … but tomorrow is another day of course 🙂
    well done on compass point ine runner sent there .. in it bolts .. terrific ride btw 🙂

    wd/gb 🙂

    George B 28/03/19 5:35 PM Reply


    • Well backed too. Onwards and upwards, still got a few to run tonight 🙂 as for tomorrow, you never can tell!

      Mark Curtis 28/03/19 5:39 PM Reply


  • rice n chips tonight for me then …. back tomorrow by popular demand no doubt ? 😉 thanks for your help and confidence boosting today mc been good fun again for me ….. couldn’t / wouldn’t wanna do this without ya … ha ha 🙂
    now how does that millwall ditty go …….. something something …something .. i don’t care ! 🙂 lol gotta laugh 🙂
    goodnight ……………….

    George B 28/03/19 5:46 PM Reply


    • Likewise G,really appreciate your one million systems and overall good eggness :-). Back tomorrow

      Mark Curtis 28/03/19 5:57 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    None

    Titus 12/08/19 12:44 AM Reply


  • Hi all, my three for today.

    WOLVERHAMTON 14:20 FRENCH TWIST
    WARWICK 14:40 FIFTY SHADES
    WOLVERHAMTON 14:50 PARADISE BOY

    G.L.
    Solent

    solentmagpie 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


  • “Well hello everyone , the wind is blowing, the sun is shining” and it’s busy morning here on the downs as the first batch go past me …………. well it is the south downs and it was only a couple of shetlands chasing a pony and trap. But hey ho on to today’s winners fresh from my probably ignored feast of winners from the frowned upon long list of runners yesterday 😉 (a bfsp profit most people would have been proud of 😉 )
    ………………….Nothing from me today …unless your name has the initials m.c. 😉

    George B 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


    • NOT TIPS …… JUST MY USUAL MUSINGS OF A HUMBLE MAN 😉
      ok then .. as you asked so nicely 🙂 for all you mc’s out there :
      all signs positive are as follows according to my fisher price compooter :
      2.50 Wolverhampton No.4 Caplin 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
      3.55 Wolverhampton No.3 Areen Heart 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 ( E/W)
      4.30 Wolverhampton No.2 Mawakib 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
      and if i have any money left after these little shining diamonds …….
      5.05 Wolverhampton No.8 Captain Kissinger 🙂 ( e/w or tbp only = everything is ok except draw and month possibly ??:( )

      enjoy my all weather favourite learned friends you 🙂
      gl/gb 🙂
      keep on ……………………. 🙂
      p.s. can you please send back a winner to me mc mer sea …… just incase the above goes pete tong 🙁

      George B 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


      • Just an initial reslonse, Captain K hits 60% win 100% place stats for T/J over five years at course 🙂

        Mark Curtis 12/08/19 1:16 AM Reply


    • You had a stormer yesterday G, amazing. Glad we chose the same ona couple, boosted my bank 🙂

      Out now but looking at the AW later, laters potaters

      Mark Curtis 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


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