Members Daily Post: 25/03/19 (complete)

Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Wincanton

3.15 – Quite By Chance   (HcCh)  ES+ I3 G1 7/1 S3A#  UP

3.45 – Lizzie Langton   (HcCh, micro’s dist and -class)  ES+ H3 I3 5/2 S3A# UP

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: +3.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 3/52,16p, -23)

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Daily Tips 

None on Monday. A 3m C5 chase at Wincanton, i’ll leave well alone! 

Nice to add another winner, 3m+ chase tips now 6/31, 10p, +19 since I refocused. I think it’s clear where my daily focus outside of Festivals should be. Good of Nick to follow me in also!! That boosted the coffers even further and well done to others who also fancied him. I didn’t think he’d be able to carry that extra weight of expectation but it was never in much doubt. It was a superb ride from Stan, he’s really come on in recent months esp over fences. He judged the pace well, letting others get on with it who he must have thought were doing too much/or matching them would take his out of comfort zone. He got him jumping , took it up and then filled him up turning for home. He let the others come to him and then kicked on. Brilliant.  He must be taking tips from Sean Bowen, who did a similar thing at Kelso on Kupatana, in what was a quite brilliant ride given her profile.

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3.30 Lingfield... anyone who backed that winner through Bet365 should have a free bet on this race to the same stake.

I’m using mine on Eden Rose, 9/2i’ll have to take fitness on trust but if she’s ready to roll she could blow this lot away. She looks the one for the future to take from this anyway, given the strength of her form and she’s by Dansili out of a Galileo mare, so her blood isn’t too bad. LTO, when she was staying on over 12f, (having hacked up over 14f the run before that) she split two subsequent winners. The horse who beat her that day hit an OR of 81, before not getting home over 16f when last seen. There’s plenty more to come from her and this trip promises to suit/could bring out further improvement. The yard are going ok and trainer/jockey are 8/39,13p, +15 when teaming up in the last year. Anyway she should prove well handicapped still at some point. The fav is well fancied it seems, but for a free bet this one will do. 

 

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Irish Lincoln… well that was a positive result for the stats approach, not that I backed the 9/1 winner or 40/1 2nd,  damn! I want to try and get a stats list of 2-4 for those races, but the 1st , 2nd and 4th were on the ‘longlist’ of 7. Note to self… i think moving forwards any horse on the long list who’s trainer has previously won the race, should be automatically in any shortlist. Ger Lyons had won the race before as per stats/trends listed, and that could have been enough to ensure his 9/1 winner was in the four.  Those are not races I wish to pour over with my ‘form eyes’, and it would be good to find a long term stats/trends method that works, requiring little thinking. Anyway, hopefully some of you may have used those stats to land on the winner…

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Jockeys/chasers

3.45 W – Lizzie Langton 5/2 UP

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

3.45 W – Findusatgorcombe 9/4 2nd

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Aintree Grand National 2019 Stats Pack: Complete… READ HERE>>>

This report includes stats/trends pointers for all 7 handicaps, and some stats/trainer pointers, including for those who’s horses last ran at The Cheltenham Festival. It’s likely I may send this report out for free, or a chunk of it anyway, and those stats will form the foundation of my analysis. Aintree is my ‘social’ meeting of the year, where I attend all three days, so my approach to tipping is more relaxed, but given Chelts this year i’ll attempt to work a bit harder. It’s not usually a meeting I do that well at (linked to that social element maybe!) but last year was profitable from the few tips I did advise. 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

64 Responses

  1. Results for Colins bets etc
    Colins bets SP – 12.375 BOG – 7.417

    Elite bets SP – 6.591 BOG + 0.625 won Jan and Feb

    New method
    1 to 8 March SP + 16.7 backed these but did not record BOG
    9 to 24 March SP + 8.083 BOG + 22.901
    Total for March SP + 24.783 BOG + 39.601 would have been higher if recorded BOG 1 to 8 March.
    Sat/Sun 6 bets and 2 winners SP 11/2 4/1 BOG 8/1 4/1
    Long way to go to prove this method will be successful again, positive start in March so far, so treat with care and time will tell.
    Colin

  2. ‘re free bets in 3.30 Leafy Lingfield, I would select Le Torrent. Good luck whatever you back 🙂

    1. Being a regular at Lingfield, the description “Leafy” isn’t one that springs to my mind. Bleak and soulless seem more appropriate!

  3. Results for Colins bets etc
    Colins bets SP – 12.375 BOG – 7.417

    Elite bets SP – 6.591 BOG + 0.625 won Jan and Feb

    New method
    1 to 8 March SP + 16.7 backed these but did not record BOG
    9 to 24 March SP + 8.083 BOG + 22.901
    Total for March SP + 24.783 BOG + 39.601 would have been higher if recorded BOG 1 to 8 March.
    Sat/Sun 6 bets and 2 winners SP 11/2 4/1 BOG 8/1 4/1
    Long way to go to prove this method will be successful again, positive start in March so far, so treat with care and time will tell.
    Colin

  4. Any opinions on the 3.30 Lingfield welcomed as I have a free bet and the AW is a mystery.

    Cheers

    Jim

  5. Well done today / yesterday Josh, refocusing always gives one`s head a wobble and when it straightens back up, you feel better!
    Thanks for all your hard work and guidance with certain things, Nick and all the others also, great site and long live the King!! Wizard of Id for anyone old enough to remember that!

  6. ‘re free bets in 3.30 Leafy Lingfield, I would select Le Torrent. Good luck whatever you back 🙂

    1. Being a regular at Lingfield, the description “Leafy” isn’t one that springs to my mind. Bleak and soulless seem more appropriate!

  7. Week ending 24/03/19 2wins/16bets -10.6
    March so far 15wins/80bets -4
    POOR……

    Today’s darts

    Wincanton
    2:15 Lady Longshot

    Lingfield

    3:30 Atomic Jack
    4:30 Chakrii

  8. FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +76.19

    The GMc runner was poor and looks woefully one pace. Disappointing run of form from the 2 pointers but hopefully they can finish with a flourish.

    No bets

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT -3.72

    These have never got off the ground. Two 2nds today. Ericas lad should have won in my opinion, certainly it seemed an odd decision to strike the front 4 out with one so quirky, particularly as he did little when he hit the front the time before.

    No bets

  9. Week ending 24/03/19 2wins/16bets -10.6
    March so far 15wins/80bets -4
    POOR……

    Today’s darts

    Wincanton
    2:15 Lady Longshot

    Lingfield

    3:30 Atomic Jack
    4:30 Chakrii

    1. just found i have rather a nice free bet on WH that has to be used today (high 5 ), so i’ll jinx yours Josh and stick it on that 🙂

        1. oh well done, that’s a nice dinner out! Or a few bottles of X! She hacked up there, was hoping she may be a class above that lot, could have a nice race in her, we shall see.

  10. no racing to speak of to look at so spent the time updating results of my selections.
    Jan. -22.30
    feb. + 8.30
    March to date. staked 43.50 pts, returns 53.60 pts, + 10.10

  11. In that 3.30 I like the very unexposed for a 9yo Music Man.

    Course winner, sire stats says 2m on flat or AW is OK, promising return last time after a long absence.

    I’ll make him a tip to go with the 13 losers so far this month.

    Back later with a couple more, you can’t wait can you?

  12. Is very poor stuff today. Can confirm there’s no HCP bets today and TBH I’m not expecting much in the way of non hcp races. Will update at 2.00

    1. As expected I’ve nothing to come for today. Hopefully better days and better opportunities are just around the corner.

  13. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    3.30 Lingfield Methag BOG 20/1
    3.30 Lingfield Atomic Jack BOG 2/1
    6.45 Wolverhampton Griggy BOG 4/1
    NEW METHOD
    2.15 Wincanton Belmont Jewel BOG 9/2
    3.30 Lingfield Atomic Jack BOG 2/1
    Colin

  14. Hi all. my three for today.

    WINCANTON 14:15 PRINCESS MIDNIGHT
    WOLVERHAMTON 18:15 GINGER MAX
    WOLVERHAMTON 19:45 LA SIOUX

    So close yesterday to all three going in!!!

    G.L.
    Solent

  15. no racing to speak of to look at so spent the time updating results of my selections.
    Jan. -22.30
    feb. + 8.30
    March to date. staked 43.50 pts, returns 53.60 pts, + 10.10

  16. In that 3.30 I like the very unexposed for a 9yo Music Man.

    Course winner, sire stats says 2m on flat or AW is OK, promising return last time after a long absence.

    I’ll make him a tip to go with the 13 losers so far this month.

    Back later with a couple more, you can’t wait can you?

    1. Could you maybe have a brilliant Lay system to market here? 🙂 I thought the other day if i had Lay bet everything i have followed on here since joining 5 th December i would be well in profit now, rather than loss making (Sorry guys tongue in cheek i m staying with Backing cos i know it will all come good in the end (yesterday was a step in right direction!

      1. Yes, John, I sometimes think that too.

        It’s too early with my selections on here to make a call about profitability back or lay. I go for longer prices in the main and losing runs of 30 or 40 are easily possible.

        Sod’s Law also seems to apply a lot with me. I thought I’d posted an 8/1 winner recently but hadn’t hit send.

        Worse, from time to time I decide that a system selection cannot possibly win so don’t back it, with inevitable results.

        You bet your sweet bippy if I put stuff on here to lay they’d be winning at 50/1 no problems.

  17. Alex Dunn gets 2 last chances, if she hasn’t had a decent priced winner by the end of the month I give up. There’s been a definite profile and this pair fit.

    Lingfield 3.00 Mr Minerals 25/1

    Wolverhampton 7.15 De Little Engine 40/1

  18. Is very poor stuff today. Can confirm there’s no HCP bets today and TBH I’m not expecting much in the way of non hcp races. Will update at 2.00

    1. As expected I’ve nothing to come for today. Hopefully better days and better opportunities are just around the corner.

  19. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    3.30 Lingfield Methag BOG 20/1
    3.30 Lingfield Atomic Jack BOG 2/1
    6.45 Wolverhampton Griggy BOG 4/1
    NEW METHOD
    2.15 Wincanton Belmont Jewel BOG 9/2
    3.30 Lingfield Atomic Jack BOG 2/1
    Colin

  20. Hi all. my three for today.

    WINCANTON 14:15 PRINCESS MIDNIGHT
    WOLVERHAMTON 18:15 GINGER MAX
    WOLVERHAMTON 19:45 LA SIOUX

    So close yesterday to all three going in!!!

    G.L.
    Solent

      1. Hi Kev,

        As from 12 Jan, when I started to post my daily THREE.

        R.O.I. PTS S/R
        -33.77% (-13.14) 7.41% MARCH 4/54 11p
        19.94% 13.16 21.88% FEBRUARY 14/64 30p
        37.27% 15.65 19.05% JANUARY 8/42 17p

        6.23% 28.81 16.25% 26/160 58p

        If Sir Ivan had won yesterday @ 20/1 this month would of been in profit also!!!

  21. The shrewd money has obviously come for Eden Rose, now in to 10/3, so I have resorted to the lucky pin for my free bet in the 3.30 Lingfield and it has landed on Navajo Star – each way at 22/1.

    Good luck everybody!

    1. ah well I wouldn’t call my money shrewd haha – I wonder who’s shrewd money it is, maybe she’s been tipped up somewhere or the yard know what they’ve got on their hands based on homework etc. Her form is some of best in race to my eyes, given how many of her races have turned out. But yep price getting short enough given the break and she’s not certain to stay! If she’s fit and does stay though (ran over 14f as if she would), the rest are in trouble.

  22. Alex Dunn gets 2 last chances, if she hasn’t had a decent priced winner by the end of the month I give up. There’s been a definite profile and this pair fit.

    Lingfield 3.00 Mr Minerals 25/1

    Wolverhampton 7.15 De Little Engine 40/1

    1. afternoon, don’t think so- well not my end, i’ve just refreshed it and cards etc working as they should. I’m using Chrome.

  23. Anyone who nabbed Eden Rose at 4s+, also now has a free bet on the 6.45 Wolvs. I’ve thrown mine at the Hannon horse at 10s – maybe the break has done him some good, not the best of draws mind but yard going ok and i’d best use one of these freebies on a bigger priced one.

  24. I put on a £6 win trixie yesterday 2 have gone in (Deauville dancer 8-1) and Gamain 11-2) have Distant Mirage to run in the 6:45

      1. Always thinks it depends how much you need the money but you’re guaranteed a return already not that far off the offer anyway. My experience of cashing out this year has cost me over £1000!

      2. Never cash out, certainly unless it’s life changing! I always ask myself in what situation would I be more annoyed, and i’d be more annoyed if I lost out on the 531, vs losing the lot – should just think of it as a £6 loss. Unless you place them regularly with the intention of trading out etc. You clearly thought they all had a decent chance winning/overpriced to do so, so should let it ride.
        Could always lay Distant Mirage to X, and to lock in X, etc. A few options.

          1. thanks guys…yes its a £1.50 trixie totalling £6…thanks for all your advice

  25. I put on a £6 win trixie yesterday 2 have gone in (Deauville dancer 8-1) and Gamain 11-2) have Distant Mirage to run in the 6:45

  26. Anyone who nabbed Eden Rose at 4s+, also now has a free bet on the 6.45 Wolvs. I’ve thrown mine at the Hannon horse at 10s – maybe the break has done him some good, not the best of draws mind but yard going ok and i’d best use one of these freebies on a bigger priced one.

  27. Well done today / yesterday Josh, refocusing always gives one`s head a wobble and when it straightens back up, you feel better!
    Thanks for all your hard work and guidance with certain things, Nick and all the others also, great site and long live the King!! Wizard of Id for anyone old enough to remember that!

  28. FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +76.19

    The GMc runner was poor and looks woefully one pace. Disappointing run of form from the 2 pointers but hopefully they can finish with a flourish.

    No bets

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT -3.72

    These have never got off the ground. Two 2nds today. Ericas lad should have won in my opinion, certainly it seemed an odd decision to strike the front 4 out with one so quirky, particularly as he did little when he hit the front the time before.

    No bets

    1. just found i have rather a nice free bet on WH that has to be used today (high 5 ), so i’ll jinx yours Josh and stick it on that 🙂

  29. The shrewd money has obviously come for Eden Rose, now in to 10/3, so I have resorted to the lucky pin for my free bet in the 3.30 Lingfield and it has landed on Navajo Star – each way at 22/1.

    Good luck everybody!

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