Members Daily Post: 24/03/19 (tipx1/complete)

Tip x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone, Irish Lincoln pointers

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Carlisle

3.30 – Amberose   (micro class) 14 H3 I3 G3 5/1 S4  WON 9/2 

4.00 –

Granville Island   (HcCh) 14/1 S2 

Du Soleil   (m age) G3 5/2 

4.35 – Longhousesignora   (m age) I3 G3 11/2 S1 + S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

 

Exeter

3.15 –

Trans Express   (m class) H3 I1 G3 15/2 S4  –  S1 + S5  WON 11.00 BFSP , 8/1 

Silverhow   (m dist) 12/1 UP

4.20 – Dusky Lark   (HcCh) H1 I1 7/1 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

 

Irish Bonus

Down Patrick

3.50 –

Out Sam   (HcCh) H1 4/1  UP

Space Cadet   (HcCh) 12/1 S2 UP

4.25 – Smoking Dixie   (HcCh)  11/4 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: +3.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 3/52,16p, -23)

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Daily Tips

4.20 Exeter – Coningsby – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) WON 7/1>5/1 

that’s all for today, 09.30, write up…

Looking through this race I narrowed it down to the top 3 in the market in this as they do look the most interesting. I’ve gone for the unexposed point winner who ran a decent race LTO from the front, in 1st time blinkers. Of course there’s always a chance they don’t work again but I thought he should get an easy enough time of it on the front – Dusky Lark can race up there but he’s got stamina to prove, so they may hold him up. I’d be surprised if Dicky is ultra-aggressive on his but there’s always a chance of that. Anyway, he ran well enough there, leading for a long way into the race, over 25f, in soft, and after 99 days off. I’d like to think he’ll come on for the run and it’s interesting they come back here, a track where he ran well in a maiden hurdle. His point win was on better ground and with any luck he can get this lot on the stretch. He hits a few test zone micros also and on the basis of that last run he’s 2-3 points too big here. His best days should be ahead of him and if he builds on that last run, where he responded to pressure also, he should be the one to pass as they turn for home.

Lacey’s have been going ok, and contrary to some reports in the comments (Chubnut!) I can’t find any evidence that he passed away in early March! He wrote a blog post yesterday 🙂 You must be thinking of someone else.

I was tossing a coin whether to go with the selection or Fortunate George but in the end went for the more unexposed one, and the pace/make-all angle. However, when this one last ran over fences he did so off 133, and now races of 120 here. He would be thrown in if getting back to the form of his Ascot chase win where he demolished a field of solid horses off 123. That was in Nov 17. He’s been running over hurdles since Feb 18, and returned to some sort of form LTO, staying on well enough. Adam Wedge is back on for the first time in a while and he’s ridden him to victory before. I wouldn’t put anyone off a saver on him, but he is open to attack from younger legs. This is only his 7th chase start though but he’s spent so long over hurdles he may have forgotten how to jump fences! He is looking dangerously handicapped though, for his in-form yard.

For Good Measure probably is the right fav but he’s short enough on what he’s done. He did run well here back over hurdles LTO but hasn’t won since Dec 15 and this is only his 8th start in around 2 years – he’s clearly had plenty of issues and that would temper some enthusiasm at 3/1, as it’s hard to know if he will build on his promising return. He is unexposed over fences so I won’t be shocked if he goes well for his red hot yard, however he does also have to prove he fully sees out 24f.

I was happy to leave the rest for one reason or another. Duel At Dawn should be showing more one day as he does have ability but the wheels have come off this season. The yard are quiet but they try 1st blinkers here, so it will be interesting if they spark him up. He promised to be a decent handicapper chaser but it just hasn’t happened yet. One to keep an eye on for when he shows more.

Best of luck,

Josh

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

D Pipe PU LTO (14/1< guide)

4.20 E – You Say What

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.20 E – Vice Et Vertu

D McCain (14/1< guide)

4.35 C – Rainy City

Tom Lacey 

4.20 E – Coningsby

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow

2.40 E – Misty Bloom (14/1<)

4.20 E – Coningsby

Jockeys/chasers

3.50 DP – Teachers Pet  (16/1<)

4.20 E – Sandy Beach

4.20 E- Coningsby

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Handicap Chase System (10/1< best)

4.55 E – Ericas Lad

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book

2.55 C – Elixir Du Gouet (long term, guide)

3.30 C – Sweet Vinetta (long term, guide)

4.00 C – Du Soleil (short term, guide)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

4.10 Naas: Irish Lincoln 

10/10 8-7+

  • 8-6< : 0/51, 3p

10/10 running same or drop in trip (Up 1f+ : 0/33, 3p)

10/10 had won 8f+ (had not: 0/35, 5p)

10/10 sent off 14/1< LTO (16/1+ : 0/51, 5p)

10/10 made debut over 7f+ (Did not: 0/65, 6p)

9/10 had 1+ track run (0: 1/54,6p)

9/10 had been ridden by jockey previously (had not: 1/90, 13p)

8/10 had 1-3 runs over track/distance (0: 2/100, 15p)

8/10 made racing debut aged 3 (8/57, 14p, vs 2 YO -2/127, 24p)

7/10 ran in non-handicap LTO (7/90, 17p)

Other

  • 1 handicap win only: 0/46, 4p
  • Ran in race worth more than 25k LTO: 0/33,5p

Stalls

  • Drawn 19+ : 0/27, 1p
  • Drawn 6-13: 0/75, 14p

Trainers

  • P D Deegan: 2/7, 5p
  • T Stack : 2/8, 4p
  • X1: M Mulvany / J Oxx / A J McNamara / T Carmody / D Weld / G Lyons
  • J Bolger: 0/11,2p
  • R Fahey: 0/12,2p

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Shortlist:

Well the ‘long list’ worked! Promising at least...

The 10/10 stats leave 10/63, 23p… but leave plenty. Applying the draw stats above (Not 6-13, and not 19+) leaves 7…

Theobold / Karawaan 8/1 WON 9/1  / Warnaq / Calvados Spirit 12/1 / Tony The Gent / Trading Point 40/1 2nd 40/1 / Set In Stone 

Looking at those with 1 + track run / ridden by jockey 1+ / 1-3 runs track|dist / made debut aged 3.. that’s 14 stats in total…

Those 12/14 or higher…

  • Warnaq (14/14)  14/1 4th
  • Theobold (13/14) 11/1 UP
  • Tony The Gent (13/14) 20/1  UP
  • Set In Stone (12/14) 40/1 / 28/1  UP

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I won’t be tipping in these races this year, I need to ponder my approach to the flat (albeit plenty of Summer Jumps! ahem) plenty but i’d like to look at 1-2 ‘trends handicaps’ each week, which I did last season to a point, esp sprint handicaps. I’ll try and keep track of how the ‘shortlists’ get on, especially those in bold, as it would be quite good if they could be backed blind, but i’ve no idea if that will be successful or not long term! Still, it’s information to use in your own deliberations if nothing else. 

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

77 Responses

  1. I am off out on Saturday evening but Chubnut can hold the fort.

    Systems selections – Emma Lavelle handicappers 5/1 + : if 8/1 or more then 1 point each way, if 5/1 to less 15/1 then 2 points win.

    2.40 Exeter, Misty Bloom. 4.20 Exeter, Fortunate George.

  2. FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +78.19

    Have settled the winner at 9/1 with a 20p rule 4. 10s were available in places at 10am but try and make odds settlement as fair as possible.

    2pt win 2.40 E – Telson Barley

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT -1.72

    I managed to avoid Claud and Goldie myself but have settled as a loser as did go off <9/1 on BF. Money must have been late, very late!

    4.55 E – Ericas Lad
    5.10 C – Solid Strike – wouldn’t bother with the 3s tonight as seems almost certain to drift.

    Flat season proper starts in Ireland! Used to think I preferred the jumps but can’t wait to see the back of it this year. Maybe it was a lack of rain, I’m not sure but it’s been a struggle!

  3. Hi Steve, yes the performance of these bets have been more than OK. Like most on here I operate a portfolio of tipsters too and it’s been tough going on that front for a good 6 months I reckon!

    I do have some flat systems but I will be taking a break from posting at the end of the month. I may be back though…

  4. I am off out on Saturday evening but Chubnut can hold the fort.

    Systems selections – Emma Lavelle handicappers 5/1 + : if 8/1 or more then 1 point each way, if 5/1 to less 15/1 then 2 points win.

    2.40 Exeter, Misty Bloom. 4.20 Exeter, Fortunate George.

  5. FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +78.19

    Have settled the winner at 9/1 with a 20p rule 4. 10s were available in places at 10am but try and make odds settlement as fair as possible.

    2pt win 2.40 E – Telson Barley

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT -1.72

    I managed to avoid Claud and Goldie myself but have settled as a loser as did go off <9/1 on BF. Money must have been late, very late!

    4.55 E – Ericas Lad
    5.10 C – Solid Strike – wouldn’t bother with the 3s tonight as seems almost certain to drift.

    Flat season proper starts in Ireland! Used to think I preferred the jumps but can’t wait to see the back of it this year. Maybe it was a lack of rain, I’m not sure but it’s been a struggle!

    1. Have you got system(s) for the flat Francis ? Still think you’ve done well with the jumps ….cheers, Steve

  6. Hi Steve, yes the performance of these bets have been more than OK. Like most on here I operate a portfolio of tipsters too and it’s been tough going on that front for a good 6 months I reckon!

    I do have some flat systems but I will be taking a break from posting at the end of the month. I may be back though…

  7. today’s selections.
    Exeter.
    3-15. Ebony Gale 6-1
    4-20.Coningsby 7-1 4 places
    Carlisle.
    3-30. Canny Style 16-1
    4-35. Rivabodiva 10-1 4 places
    all 1/2 pt ew

  8. As the ground dries out, all winter form now starts to disappear, so, the start of the flat is almost upon us. I will have a small dabble on the Irish Lincoln, but, it is only shrapnel.
    Tough going yesterday and like I think Josh mentioned on proper winter good to soft some of those horses would have done better.
    Well done to Mr Fehily , good luck to him in whatever ventures he wants to take now, he has had a rough time of it and i have backed many of his over the years, tough and reliable, wasn`t Billy Big B###ocks, just got on with things and was workmanlike, least he left on his own terms, we have seen loads that don`t…All the best!

    16:10 NAAS

    WARNAQ 14/1 pp 1/2pt e/w
    SET IN STONE 40/1 1/2 pt e/w

    Hope all horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

    1. Out of curiosity Stewart what are your stats like for the flat since plan on expanding the portfolio from April.

      1. Not bad on flat, but, prefer jumps. Seem to lose my focus as I’m not good when there are more than 2-3 races to look at. It would be wise to watch and shoot…watch and shoot!

  9. Having a go on Largy Park 4/1 in the bumper at Carlisle purely on stats. Hughes is 4 from 7 (5 places) riding Crawford’s bumper horses at the track. Not a great first run but 1st time TT applied.

  10. Just a couple of musings this fine Sunday morning.
    Sat was a disaster Francis saved me with his late Sunny Destination. Thanks.
    Sorry to see you won’t be posting after this month followed you with much success.

    1. Note R Fahey has 3 in the Irish Lincoln and one earlier on. Read on RTP to watch for uk trainers going to Ireland in sprints, I take it 1m is just outside?
    2. VW has 2 at Carlisle in HEAVY going. She can win on other going but seems heavy is her specialty.
    3. Coningsby has been mentioned 3 times in S3 above I have noted when this happens winners have appeared. No stats just my observations.

    Now of for a game of golf.

    Mike

  11. today’s selections.
    Exeter.
    3-15. Ebony Gale 6-1
    4-20.Coningsby 7-1 4 places
    Carlisle.
    3-30. Canny Style 16-1
    4-35. Rivabodiva 10-1 4 places
    all 1/2 pt ew

  12. Sorry about the utter shite yesterday.

    Pretty Miss Mahler Carlisle 17:10 1pt e/w 13/2
    Coningsby Exeter 16:20 1pt e/w 13/2

    1. PHEWW thanks for rescuing my bank once again nick and josh and all the others that built the confidence for me 🙂 …. i got more to lose next week now 🙂

      a relieved and “fortunate george” … lol 🙂

      gl/gb

    2. Francis, Nick
      Thanks for your comments, re R Fahey, noted, re going at Carlisle was from sat racing paper not enough time to check properly.
      R Fahey Wasntexpectinthat ew 4th at 16s, sp 10s. PROFIT!!.

      Mike

  13. 4.20 Exeter
    For Good Measure defo there to win this with last run and Johnson booked. Think Stamp your Feet could be a bit of a suprise stepped up in trip. Finished first chase start very strong and then was still going wen brought down past time out 11/1 think il have that ew

  14. COLINS BETS
    4.55 Exeter Erica’s Lad BOG 15/8

    ELITE BETS
    4.20 Exeter Garrane BOG 10/1

    NEW METHOD
    Exeter
    2.40 Apple Mack BOG 10/1
    3.45 Saintemilion BOG 10/3
    Colin

  15. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 3.30 – Avondhu Pearl on 7th run @ 11/4
    C 4.00 – Quest For Life on 5thr un @ 8
    C 5.10 – Solid Strike on 4th run @ 4
    Flat
    N 4.45 – Satisfy on 2nd run @ 200
    Festival
    E 4.20 – Duel At Dawn on 4th run @ 14
    3m+
    C 5.10 – Onderun on 5th run @ 9
    GL

  16. Hi all, my three for today,

    EXETER 15:15 SIR IVAN
    CARLISLE 15:30 AMBROSE
    EXETER 16:20 CONINGSBY

    G.L.
    Solent

  17. As the ground dries out, all winter form now starts to disappear, so, the start of the flat is almost upon us. I will have a small dabble on the Irish Lincoln, but, it is only shrapnel.
    Tough going yesterday and like I think Josh mentioned on proper winter good to soft some of those horses would have done better.
    Well done to Mr Fehily , good luck to him in whatever ventures he wants to take now, he has had a rough time of it and i have backed many of his over the years, tough and reliable, wasn`t Billy Big B###ocks, just got on with things and was workmanlike, least he left on his own terms, we have seen loads that don`t…All the best!

    16:10 NAAS

    WARNAQ 14/1 pp 1/2pt e/w
    SET IN STONE 40/1 1/2 pt e/w

    Hope all horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

    1. Out of curiosity Stewart what are your stats like for the flat since plan on expanding the portfolio from April.

        1. Obviously each to his own and all that but my trial with Cleeve was very underwhelming. It was Royal Ascot last year and my own selections did better (which is saying something 🙂 ).

          I found their selections predictable and unoriginal, but if it works for you…

          1. I think as with most services they have good and bad patches personally I think they are too inconsistent I think this is a discussion for the free posts (As Josh will soon let us know )

      1. Not bad on flat, but, prefer jumps. Seem to lose my focus as I’m not good when there are more than 2-3 races to look at. It would be wise to watch and shoot…watch and shoot!

          1. yes indeed Nick..like the curse of Josh saying how good you are and then…….

          2. haha, no it’s a well known curse of mine! 🙂 He’s still in profit for 2019, and even more so after today just not his usual crazy high standards but that just means he’s cleaning up on the flat again!

  18. Having a go on Largy Park 4/1 in the bumper at Carlisle purely on stats. Hughes is 4 from 7 (5 places) riding Crawford’s bumper horses at the track. Not a great first run but 1st time TT applied.

  19. Just wondering (and don’t mean to sound in any way provocative but just too many to monitor) Apart from Nick is anyone into Profit just for March? Thanks John

  20. Just a couple of musings this fine Sunday morning.
    Sat was a disaster Francis saved me with his late Sunny Destination. Thanks.
    Sorry to see you won’t be posting after this month followed you with much success.

    1. Note R Fahey has 3 in the Irish Lincoln and one earlier on. Read on RTP to watch for uk trainers going to Ireland in sprints, I take it 1m is just outside?
    2. VW has 2 at Carlisle in HEAVY going. She can win on other going but seems heavy is her specialty.
    3. Coningsby has been mentioned 3 times in S3 above I have noted when this happens winners have appeared. No stats just my observations.

    Now of for a game of golf.

    Mike

    1. Thanks Mike. March is a natural end point for the system I am posting. Pleased to hear it has made you a bob or two.

      Fahey is a very solid start of season trainer. Horses of his running in March and April on the flat with an OR between same and -2 vs last race are +380 points from 610 bets since 2009. Profit in every year and 19% strike-rate. Not really my thing to follow that sort of angle but his horses definitely worth a second look. 0 from 19 in Ireland in that subset but wouldn’t necessarily put me off.

  21. Sorry for the late post but been one of those mornings where life (and all those folks that have regular Monday – Friday jobs), get in the way. Nothing for me in the early part of the afternoon, but chances in the national hunt flat races later. No HCP races either, so post the update at 4.00

  22. Sorry about the utter shite yesterday.

    Pretty Miss Mahler Carlisle 17:10 1pt e/w 13/2
    Coningsby Exeter 16:20 1pt e/w 13/2

    1. lets hope we are all right about Coningsby between you,Josh, me and a couple of other places it’s my biggest bet for quite a while, squeaky bum time 🙂

    2. Francis, Nick
      Thanks for your comments, re R Fahey, noted, re going at Carlisle was from sat racing paper not enough time to check properly.
      R Fahey Wasntexpectinthat ew 4th at 16s, sp 10s. PROFIT!!.

      Mike

    3. PHEWW thanks for rescuing my bank once again nick and josh and all the others that built the confidence for me 🙂 …. i got more to lose next week now 🙂

      a relieved and “fortunate george” … lol 🙂

      gl/gb

  23. 4.20 Exeter
    For Good Measure defo there to win this with last run and Johnson booked. Think Stamp your Feet could be a bit of a suprise stepped up in trip. Finished first chase start very strong and then was still going wen brought down past time out 11/1 think il have that ew

  24. COLINS BETS
    4.55 Exeter Erica’s Lad BOG 15/8

    ELITE BETS
    4.20 Exeter Garrane BOG 10/1

    NEW METHOD
    Exeter
    2.40 Apple Mack BOG 10/1
    3.45 Saintemilion BOG 10/3
    Colin

  25. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 3.30 – Avondhu Pearl on 7th run @ 11/4
    C 4.00 – Quest For Life on 5thr un @ 8
    C 5.10 – Solid Strike on 4th run @ 4
    Flat
    N 4.45 – Satisfy on 2nd run @ 200
    Festival
    E 4.20 – Duel At Dawn on 4th run @ 14
    3m+
    C 5.10 – Onderun on 5th run @ 9
    GL

  26. Hi all, my three for today,

    EXETER 15:15 SIR IVAN
    CARLISLE 15:30 AMBROSE
    EXETER 16:20 CONINGSBY

    G.L.
    Solent

  27. Just wondering (and don’t mean to sound in any way provocative but just too many to monitor) Apart from Nick is anyone into Profit just for March? Thanks John

  28. Sorry for the late post but been one of those mornings where life (and all those folks that have regular Monday – Friday jobs), get in the way. Nothing for me in the early part of the afternoon, but chances in the national hunt flat races later. No HCP races either, so post the update at 4.00

    1. I can’t seem to find anything that’s clearly a bet right now. I guess we must be scraping the bottom of the barrel. Roll on the flat. See you tomorrow.

  29. Yes, good stats for the Irish Lincoln Josh, promising for our own flat season. And well done on Conigsby, thank God you didn’t go for Fortunate George 🙂

  30. Well done on Coningsby, thank you Nick, Josh, Martin W (not forgetting SP2A).
    I expect a few members have now got a free bet on the 3.30 at Lingfield tomorrow, any advice would be very welcome.

  31. Yes, good stats for the Irish Lincoln Josh, promising for our own flat season. And well done on Conigsby, thank God you didn’t go for Fortunate George 🙂

    1. ha cheers, yep I mean longer term it’s the unexposed ones with some solid chase or point form already which is place to focus and i’d tipped a few too many 10yo+ in recent days! And Fortunate was exposed enough generally, had plenty of racing, and he does wear a visor for a reason – moody bugger! He didn’t fancy it today, he may have decided he doesn’t like chasing now.

  32. Well done on Coningsby, thank you Nick, Josh, Martin W (not forgetting SP2A).
    I expect a few members have now got a free bet on the 3.30 at Lingfield tomorrow, any advice would be very welcome.

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