Members Daily Post: 23/03/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Bangor

2.15- Snougar   (HcH, micro going) 9/1

2.50 –

Flashjack   (all Hc’s)  w1 H1 I3 G1 15/8 S4 

Tawseef   (HcH, m’s dist,going,runs) 10/1 S2

4.35 –

Whiskey Chaser   (m going) 20/1 S2A

Spirit of Hale   (HcCh) 10/1 S2 

Tommy The Rascal   (HcCh) 40/1

 

Kelso

3.00 – Gold Opera   (m +class) I3 G3 16/1 S1 S2A UP

3.35 – Taxmeifyoucan   ( m +class) 16/1 S2A UP

4.10 – Alizee De Janeiro   (m -class)  w1 H1 I1 G1 3/1 S4  WON 4/1 

4.45 – Bennys Secret   (m dist) H3 I3 G3 6/1 S4  3rd 

5.20 –

Saint Freule   (m TJC)   w1 H1 I1 G3  11/2 S4 

Ballyanty   (m dist)  w2 H3 7/2 

 

Newbury

2.05 –

Strong Pursuit   (m class) 14,30  w2 H3 G3 3/1 PU

Luckofthedraw   (m runs) 14/1 S2 UP

Grand Vision   (all Hc’s) 20/1 S2A UP

2.40 –

Friend or Foe   (m runs)  w1 H3 9/4 UP

Legal History   (all Hc’s, m’s class and runs) G1 11/1 S1 S2 2nd 8/1 

3.50 – Foxtail Hill   (m’s class and runs) I3 10/3 UP

5.35 –

Lillington   (all Hc’s)  w1 H1 4/1 WON 4/1 

Master Work   (m’s class,dist and age)  I3 4/1 

 

Bonus Irish

Thurles

3.30 – Darling Miss   (HcH) 9/1 3rd 16/1

*

THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

*

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -3.4)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 3/52,16p, -23)

*

Daily Tips

2.05 Newbury – Kansas City Chief – 1 point win – 22/1 (UniB) 20/1 (Bet365/BetfS/BetF/WH) UP 6/1, well backed and I can only assume his owner may have had a nibble. It was over after 2 fences there, held up too far off the pace, never really sighted. His chase wins have come when racing prominently, I didn’t expect him to be anchored. Annoying given the support. Never mind. 

3.00 Kelso – Le Reve – 1 point win – 11/2 (betfS/BV/PP/BetF/Boyle) UP, ran his race, ground dried out bit too much for him, front two still a bit in hand it seems. ah. 

that will be all for today, 09.30, write ups to follow…

 

2.05 Newbury

There are a couple of stats pointers here, this the 9th renewal of this race. 7/8 had 1-2 chase wins, and 0-1 handicap chase wins… leaves 7/31,12p +42 in that time. 6 horses hit that profile… Strong Pursuit / Classic Ben / Salmanazar / Luck of The Draw / Kansas City Chief / Marcilhac

Kansas City Chief – I wanted to have a go at this one given his price and it may not amount to much but he’s going to bolt up again at some point when everything drops right. I’m pretty confident that he hates going RH over fences and certainly that last run can be ignored… he wasn’t the most fluent and I suspect he was on the wrong leg as they headed out for the final circuit – it’s a sharp bend there, he hung, didn’t handle it at all and then violently ran down the next fence to his left. He was pulled up straight after and didn’t have a hard race at all. At Sandown before that it was a more promising run, bang there after 4 out before fading. His run in the Welsh National wasn’t too bad, he was behind the main bunch as they left the back straight, having travelled/jumped ok, before fading. I also don’t think he likes it that soft – his two chase wins when trained in Ireland, one off 123, were both on yielding to soft. One of those wins was at Punchestown where again he went out to his left slightly. At Kilarney, in a good race, LH, 26f soft, he came second by 3 1/2 L off 130 to Auvergnat – who’s a decent chaser. He ran no sort of race in the X Country but had won a very good handicap chase the run before that. He soon moved to Neil Mulholland and in Jan 18 he hacked up at Doncaster in a C4 handicap hurdler, over 24f, off 120 – it was a 20 runner race and he won it on the bridle. Left handed galloping tracks seems to suit him. He started this season off 135 and is now down to 125.

So, he goes LH, on a more galloping track, and with some good in the going. His Dec-Feb runs were also when the yard were very quiet. I’ve no doubt he has the ability to win this, and he will win another handicap at some point. He’s lightly raced for his age and this is only his 9th handicap chase. This is his trip and I just couldn’t resist at the price. He may not run his race and his recent form is more indicative of an underlying problem. He may have also resented the tongue tie the last twice, and that’s been removed. The trainer does well enough with his handicap chasers here and we know Robbie Dunne rides this chase track well – Carole’s Destrier a fine example of that. I thought 20s was worth a stab here.

Now, he may run the race of his life and still not win of course. Strong Pursuit is a worthy fav, but he didn’t look over priced. He could ‘bounce’ and he does have stamina to prove. I think he will run a good race but he can beat me at the price. He is unexposed and should be the one to beat. Classic Ben is also progressive and a big run wouldn’t surprise me. There’s a chance he gets tapped for toe in these conditions but we shall see.

The two I deliberated over were Salmanazar and Luckofthedraw… the former is 11, he’s not proven to stay although runs as if worth a go over 26f.. but there’s also a niggle going LH, as he rarely races this way round and i’d suggest that’s been deliberate. He was tailed off the only time he went LH over fences at Uttoxeter. I tipped him LTO and no doubt he’ll bolt up now but at 9s or so I had a few niggles. Tom Cannon is now 0/60,11p at the track in the last 5 years, albeit the placed efforts in handicap chases are ok. I wasn’t convinced he’d relish this trip and I couldn’t wade in with two 11 year olds today!

Luckofthedraw is unexposed, and his better days are ahead of him. I decided I wasn’t sure as to the level of his chase form, and the two times he’s gone LH on decent ground over fences he’s been tailed off – at Aintree and then Haydock LTO. The ground should be fine but he does have the odd question. I think he’s worth a go at this trip and that run 2 starts back suggests he may relish it. He would be the clanger and the one I would be annoyed most at, but in the end I had a few too many doubts, even at 14s. Twister is only 1/40, 11p with his handicap chasers at the track in recent years. That run LTO was just a bit too poor, and I wasn’t sure what the excuse was – I couldn’t really see one.

I may not have mentioned the winner but Kansas will do for me.

*

Le Reve… in part i’ve gone with my instinct here as I thought 11/2 looked good and on the level of his form he could be 7/2 in this line up. I think he’s back to his best. His win two starts ago was decent and he hacked up LTO. He cruised around in that race. I had a look at the times… he ran that 3 1/2 miles, in soft, in 6m 32 second. Back in Feb 2016 he won a class 2 at Sandown, over 3m, on good to soft… in 6m 26 seconds. I’m not as hot on my times etc and need to do some work on that, but 6 seconds slower for an extra 1/2 furlong in softer ground, suggests to my eyes that at worse he’s run the same race there, as he did in Feb 2016. The blinkers have transformed him and he did used to be a 147 horse. He probably isn’t up to that level but Lingfield proved that going LH isn’t an excuse, and that’s a tight enough track in placed. He jumped very well there. He may not handle this track but I wanted to have a go at him here. He could well bring up the hat-trick.

I also fancied a go based on the others. One of the youngsters may win this.. but Blue Flight has to prove his stamina for this trip – I thought he was out on his feet over 23f here LTO – he’s gone up 14lb for that win which seems harsh, because he beat a below par Black Corton. If he defies this then fair enough, he’s clearly very smart if he does. Some Chaos is also up 11lb from his last run and he needs to step up again. 5s seemed fair, not overpriced, but he could just be progressing fast. Rons Dream didn’t look overpriced and I wasn’t sure as to the general level of her chase form. I do think this is about whether Le Reve runs his race- I see no reason why he wouldn’t and he’s the one to beat for me. I was happy to leave the rest.

*

That’s it from me today. Best of luck.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat/AW

The Doyler

2.35 L – Moftris

*

D McCain (14/1< guide)

2.50 B – Tawseef

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

2.40 N – Fanzio

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.00 B – Socksy

Saturday TJC 

3.50 N – Gala Ball

Tom Lacey 

3.15 N – Meep Meep

D Pipe PU LTO (14/1< guide, 11/1< best)

4.00 B – Dauphine Ereine

Irish Angles

5.15 T – Sizing Joshua (12/1< best)

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

LTO winning trainers

1.50 K – Tokaramore (10/1< guide)

2.05 N – Classic Ben (12/1< guide)

3.15 N – A  Little Chaos (12/1< guide)

Trainers to follow

3.00 K – Gold Opera (11/1< guide)

3.35 K – Taxmeifyoucan (11/1< guide)

3.15 N – Meep Meep

Jockeys/chasers

2.05 N – Grand Vision

3.00 K – Rons Dream

3.00 K – Some Chaos

4.00 B – The Bay Birch

LTO winning hurdlers 

2.15 B – Shanroe Tic Tec / Tigeralley

2.50 B- Flashjack

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)

4.10 K – Reverant Cust

*

Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

4.00 B- Biddy The Boss

4.35 B – Cadeau Du Bresil

Handicap H Starting Points 

5.20 K – Ballynanty

*

Adam Norman’s Little Black Book 

2.25 K – Saint Leo 7/1

*

NEW! Festival Tips 2019 

I thought I best track my 2019 ‘Festival Tips’, which so far includes Cheltenham only, but i’ll add in Aintree/Punch/Galway etc in time… most of them are generally at the unexposed end, bar the likes of Beware The Bear, and in theory should be showing more one day! It will be interesting to see how they go on their next 3 runs say, or indeed at next year’s Fetsivals – esp the hurdlers/youngsters. 

2.55 T – Scarpeta 7/4

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW!

Aintree Grand National 2019 Stats Pack: Complete… READ HERE>>>

This report includes stats/trends pointers for all 7 handicaps, and some stats/trainer pointers, including for those who’s horses last ran at The Cheltenham Festival. It’s likely I may send this report out for free, or a chunk of it anyway, and those stats will form the foundation of my analysis. Aintree is my ‘social’ meeting of the year, where I attend all three days, so my approach to tipping is more relaxed, but given Chelts this year i’ll attempt to work a bit harder. It’s not usually a meeting I do that well at (linked to that social element maybe!) but last year was profitable from the few tips I did advise. 

*

Play Scoop6

For those of you who may like a dabble on the Scoop 6, Friday’s email to the general list may be of interest HERE>>>

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

75 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Tips up for you early birds, then write ups in the morning, hell of a drift today!

    14:05 Newbury
    SALMANAZAR 10/1 gen 1pt win
    LUCKOFTHEDRAW 16/1 gen 1pt win

    15:15 Newbury
    ETAMINE DU COCHET 15/2 gen 1pt win
    OUR DOTS BABY 16/1 gen 1pt win

    14:25 KELSO
    INGLEBY HOLLOW 11/2 gen 1pt win
    ROYAL RESERVE 16/1 gen 1pt win

    15:00 KELSO
    LE REVE 6/1 gen 1pt win
    CLAUD AND GOLDIE 8/1 1pt win

    15:35 KELSO
    TEESCOMPONENTS LAD 8/1 gen 1pt win
    AYE RIGHT 8/1 gen 1pt win

    Write ups to follow tomorrow.

    Stewart 12/08/19 2:07 AM Reply


    • Maybe I have gone mad and I will keep the ramblings to a minimum, but, think there are a lot of false favourites today. Hence the amount that i have done… here goes with my thought process.
      14:05 Newbury
      SALMANAZAR 10/1 gen 1pt win
      Alan King in form at the moment, Tom Cannon a very able jockey and really only the horse let him down on our selection yesterday, has been threatening to win one of these races and is consistent, we shall see.
      LUCKOFTHEDRAW 16/1 1pt win
      Our old mate STD riding for his old fella, this one will like the ground drying out and if you scratch the lto at Haydock (which was run on good ground at Haydock in February?? trust me, heavy at Haydock is marsh like conditions elsewhere, but, never have I seen good ground at Haydock in February.)So, scratch that and at this longer trip he looks well in.

      15:15 Newbury
      ETAMINE DU COCHET 15/2 gen 1pt win
      The price has already shrunk on this one and it is a “wind op” horse, a lot has been made of these kind of horses and for me the jury is still out, some i think it works with, others i think it can be a bit like constantly changing trainers for a road race, if the horse isn`t any good, then just look at the races maybe it could win rather than trying this…my opinion and i know the stats will tell me otherwise…anyways, the horse i thought was thrown in here on this seasons form and i would have it nearer the 5/1 mark, so, the 15/2 is value.
      OUR DOTS BABY 20/1 gen 1pt win
      Definitely value in the race and a C and D winner, she will come on for her last run and at 20/1 is stand out value and the trainer is skeptical, which always makes me think they are trying to put us punters off, bold run expected!

      14:25 KELSO (Just a quick word about the track, if you have never been, go, it`s a quirky course, but, full of genuine racing people, bit like Hexham and the action is always top notch!)
      INGLEBY HOLLOW 11/2 gen 1pt win
      Decent jockey on board, form in the bag, progressive and should run a big race today, for me, should be around the 5/2 mark, so, value at 11/2 if you can get it.
      ROYAL RESERVE 16/1 gen 1pt win
      sometimes you look at a horse and say, that is overpriced and thrown in at the bottom of the weights, well, today there are a few and RR is one of them, the trainer does well at this track and if RR can reproduce the form he showed at Newcastle then this will be a shoe in.

      15:00 Kelso
      LE REVE 6/1 gen 1pt win
      Now this is a heart / head horse, having picked him lto i now look and say, should i / shouldn`t i….well I am in, he owes me nothing and seems to have found a new lease of life in the last few months, still under the handicappers radar i cannot see why he can`t take this valuable prize.I know Josh doesn`t like hunches, but, his form stands up quite well and he absolutely destroyed his field lto.
      CLAUD AND GOLDIE 10/1 gen 1pt win
      The only danger i can see is from this fella, he likes to make all and did so three weeks a go at the track, in a race that the jockey dictated the pace and had enough in hand to see it out, was tempted to do this one each way, but, he is such a big horse with a massive stride they may have trouble catching him again…

      15:25 Kelso
      TEESCOMPONETS LAD 8/1 gen 1pt win
      Ultra consistent this season and hasn`t been out of the frame all season, comes here in red hot form with speed figures to boot and should give a good account even though the only worry is he`s never been over this distance before, that is built in to the price though and 8/1 is value.
      AYE RIGHT 8/1 gen 1pt win
      Another who has been consistent all season, should enjoy the extra distance and is already a winner over the course, also can win a race at the end, has that guts and determination in a race and this is going to be needed as i can see a blanket finish with a few of these.

      As per usual, hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.

      Stewart 12/08/19 2:29 AM Reply


  • Tips up for you early birds, then write ups in the morning, hell of a drift today!

    14:05 Newbury
    SALMANAZAR 10/1 gen 1pt win
    LUCKOFTHEDRAW 16/1 gen 1pt win

    15:15 Newbury
    ETAMINE DU COCHET 15/2 gen 1pt win
    OUR DOTS BABY 16/1 gen 1pt win

    14:25 KELSO
    INGLEBY HOLLOW 11/2 gen 1pt win
    ROYAL RESERVE 16/1 gen 1pt win

    15:00 KELSO
    LE REVE 6/1 gen 1pt win
    CLAUD AND GOLDIE 8/1 1pt win

    15:35 KELSO
    TEESCOMPONENTS LAD 8/1 gen 1pt win
    AYE RIGHT 8/1 gen 1pt win

    Write ups to follow tomorrow.

    Stewart 22/03/19 9:16 PM Reply


    • Nice one today Stewart thanks.

      Mark Curtis 22/03/19 9:31 PM Reply


    • Maybe I have gone mad and I will keep the ramblings to a minimum, but, think there are a lot of false favourites today. Hence the amount that i have done… here goes with my thought process.
      14:05 Newbury
      SALMANAZAR 10/1 gen 1pt win
      Alan King in form at the moment, Tom Cannon a very able jockey and really only the horse let him down on our selection yesterday, has been threatening to win one of these races and is consistent, we shall see.
      LUCKOFTHEDRAW 16/1 1pt win
      Our old mate STD riding for his old fella, this one will like the ground drying out and if you scratch the lto at Haydock (which was run on good ground at Haydock in February?? trust me, heavy at Haydock is marsh like conditions elsewhere, but, never have I seen good ground at Haydock in February.)So, scratch that and at this longer trip he looks well in.

      15:15 Newbury
      ETAMINE DU COCHET 15/2 gen 1pt win
      The price has already shrunk on this one and it is a “wind op” horse, a lot has been made of these kind of horses and for me the jury is still out, some i think it works with, others i think it can be a bit like constantly changing trainers for a road race, if the horse isn`t any good, then just look at the races maybe it could win rather than trying this…my opinion and i know the stats will tell me otherwise…anyways, the horse i thought was thrown in here on this seasons form and i would have it nearer the 5/1 mark, so, the 15/2 is value.
      OUR DOTS BABY 20/1 gen 1pt win
      Definitely value in the race and a C and D winner, she will come on for her last run and at 20/1 is stand out value and the trainer is skeptical, which always makes me think they are trying to put us punters off, bold run expected!

      14:25 KELSO (Just a quick word about the track, if you have never been, go, it`s a quirky course, but, full of genuine racing people, bit like Hexham and the action is always top notch!)
      INGLEBY HOLLOW 11/2 gen 1pt win
      Decent jockey on board, form in the bag, progressive and should run a big race today, for me, should be around the 5/2 mark, so, value at 11/2 if you can get it.
      ROYAL RESERVE 16/1 gen 1pt win
      sometimes you look at a horse and say, that is overpriced and thrown in at the bottom of the weights, well, today there are a few and RR is one of them, the trainer does well at this track and if RR can reproduce the form he showed at Newcastle then this will be a shoe in.

      15:00 Kelso
      LE REVE 6/1 gen 1pt win
      Now this is a heart / head horse, having picked him lto i now look and say, should i / shouldn`t i….well I am in, he owes me nothing and seems to have found a new lease of life in the last few months, still under the handicappers radar i cannot see why he can`t take this valuable prize.I know Josh doesn`t like hunches, but, his form stands up quite well and he absolutely destroyed his field lto.
      CLAUD AND GOLDIE 10/1 gen 1pt win
      The only danger i can see is from this fella, he likes to make all and did so three weeks a go at the track, in a race that the jockey dictated the pace and had enough in hand to see it out, was tempted to do this one each way, but, he is such a big horse with a massive stride they may have trouble catching him again…

      15:25 Kelso
      TEESCOMPONETS LAD 8/1 gen 1pt win
      Ultra consistent this season and hasn`t been out of the frame all season, comes here in red hot form with speed figures to boot and should give a good account even though the only worry is he`s never been over this distance before, that is built in to the price though and 8/1 is value.
      AYE RIGHT 8/1 gen 1pt win
      Another who has been consistent all season, should enjoy the extra distance and is already a winner over the course, also can win a race at the end, has that guts and determination in a race and this is going to be needed as i can see a blanket finish with a few of these.

      As per usual, hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.

      Stewart 23/03/19 7:09 AM Reply


  • One for today Newbury 17.35. Lillington.

    silver 22/03/19 9:52 PM Reply


  • today’s selections.
    Newbury.
    2-05. Strong Pursuit 1pt win
    Kelso.
    2-25. Champagne City 6-1 1/2 pt ew
    3-35. Taxmeifyoucan 16-1 1/2 pt ew

    Martin Whittle 12/08/19 2:18 AM Reply


    • 2 more to add.
      Kelso 4-45. Bennys Secret 8-1 1/2 pt ew
      Bangor 2-15. Comber Mill 8-1 1/2 pt ew

      Martin Whittle 12/08/19 2:29 AM Reply


    • taken 7-2 on Strong Pursuit

      Martin Whittle 12/08/19 2:50 AM Reply


      • staked 5 pts, returns 7.8 pts , up 2.8 pts

        Martin Whittle 12/08/19 3:09 AM Reply


  • FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +74.99

    2pt win 3.00 K – Capard King
    2pt win 3.35 K – Aye Right

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT +0.28

    3.00 K – Le Reve

    Francis 12/08/19 2:29 AM Reply


  • ITV7. half a mill for 5p ew 🙂 (strains of Supertramp are heard in background)
    Strong Pursuit
    Race 1 – 14:05 Newbury
    Champagne City
    Race 2 – 14:25 Kelso
    Legal History
    Race 3 – 14:40 Newbury
    Tawseef
    Race 4 – 14:50 Bangor-on-Dee
    Capard King
    Race 5 – 15:00 Kelso
    Meep Meep
    Race 6 – 15:15 Newbury
    Taxmeifyoucan
    Race 7 – 15:35 Kelso

    Martin Whittle 12/08/19 2:29 AM Reply


  • Having a day off today. Mind boggled with my poor form.

    Warren Bottomley 12/08/19 2:29 AM Reply


  • today’s selections.
    Newbury.
    2-05. Strong Pursuit 1pt win
    Kelso.
    2-25. Champagne City 6-1 1/2 pt ew
    3-35. Taxmeifyoucan 16-1 1/2 pt ew

    Martin Whittle 23/03/19 4:06 AM Reply


    • 2 more to add.
      Kelso 4-45. Bennys Secret 8-1 1/2 pt ew
      Bangor 2-15. Comber Mill 8-1 1/2 pt ew

      Martin Whittle 23/03/19 7:32 AM Reply


    • taken 7-2 on Strong Pursuit

      Martin Whittle 23/03/19 12:04 PM Reply


      • staked 5 pts, returns 7.8 pts , up 2.8 pts

        Martin Whittle 24/03/19 1:20 AM Reply


  • I like Tazka Martin. That combo always potent at Newbury. NF last day plus pipes could be a nice tricast. Can always dream!!

    dougandnicky 12/08/19 2:29 AM Reply


    • just had a small ew on all 3 for something to watch and hopefully cheer home 🙂

      Martin Whittle 12/08/19 2:50 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    K 4.45 – Reivers Lodge on 6th run @ 12
    N 2.05 – Chic Name on 1st run @ 15/2
    Festival
    K 2.25 – Champagne City on 2nd run @ 6
    T 2.55 – Scarpeta on 1st run @ 15/8
    3m+
    K 3.00 – Capard King on 7th run @ 10
    GL

    Titus 12/08/19 2:29 AM Reply


  • Irish Roe Kelso 14:25 1pt e/w-14/1-This one has been highly tried but if you look at her record on left handed tracks away from class 1s it reads 5 wins and 2 2nds from 7 runs. I’m not in love with anything at the head of the market and she looks value. She ran a solid race in the Scottish Champion Hurdle this sort of time last year of a similar sort of break. She has had a wind op which should hopefully eke out just enough improvement to take this. She should be up there with the pace. The fact that her trainer is 2/8, 6p in handicaps at the track is a further bonus.

    Rocklander Kelso 15:35 1pt e/w-18/1-This one has had one or two issues as a chaser but has always been a solid hurdler so its a bonus he returns to this sphere of a really nice looking mark. He is 2/6, 5p in handicap hurdles in his career. George has a very good record at the track going 7/19, 11p lifetime and winning with 4 of his last 7 runners he has sent here. It interesting that he reaches for the first time cheekpieces given he has a solid 2/10, 5p in handicap hurdles. Everything that George has sent out recently has ran well with 8 of his last 10 runners finishing in the top 3 and 2 winning. Another who will either front run or be up there with the pace. I thought he looked overpriced here.

    Meep Meep Newbury 15:15 1pt e/w-14/1-She looks to have been let in on a very nice mark on her handicap debut given her Chepstow run (3L behind Annie who runs here off top weight and only 10L behind the now 140s rated Posh Trish). Highly thought of at home she ran well in a grade 2 bumper at Aintree last year. You can excuse her last 2 runs given the first one was too short and the 2nd too heavy. Lacey is 8/31, 16p +31 with handicap hurdle debutants which improves to 3/6, 4p in mares only races. She has ran her best races fresh so the break will have been a help not a hindrance. Lacey is 3/10, 4p in handicaps at the track and Tom is 2/5, 3p in handicap hurdles when riding for him (and has a 1st,3rd and 4th in 3 hurdle runs at the track for him) Another who should be up there near the pace.

    Prince Llywelyn Newbury 17:00 1pt e/w-9/1-Ok the favourite will likely win but given he is 2/5 this looks like a cracking little dirty bet. Both her 2nd and 1st runs have produced several winners behind and she is quite likely the pace angle and she should go hard to keep out of the places.

    nickmazur 12/08/19 2:38 AM Reply


    • Nick, I didn’t know till a couple of days ago that Lacey died on the 1st March (RIP) It’s doubtful his daughter will have the same strike rate and I wondered why a few were tailed off.

      chubnut 12/08/19 4:18 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    3.35 Kelso Aye Right BOG 15/2
    4.20 Lingfield Griggy BOG 10/3
    4.20 Lingfield Sundiata BOG 11/4
    4.35 Bangor Danboru BOG 4/1
    5.35 Newbury Master Work BOG 7/2
    NEW METHOD
    Newbury
    2.40 The Knot Is Tied BOG 8/1
    4.25 Sunrise Ruby BOG 9/4
    5.35 Rock On Rocky BOG 6/1
    Bangor
    4.35 Danboru BOG 4/1
    Colin

    cleafe 12/08/19 2:38 AM Reply


  • Hi all, my three for today!!!

    NEWBURY 15:15 THE WHITE MOUSE
    KELSO 15:35 TEESCOMPONENTS LAD
    NEWBURY 17:35 ROCK ON ROCKY

    G.L.
    Solent

    solentmagpie 12/08/19 2:50 AM Reply


  • FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +74.99

    2pt win 3.00 K – Capard King
    2pt win 3.35 K – Aye Right

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT +0.28

    3.00 K – Le Reve

    Francis 23/03/19 7:21 AM Reply


    • I should probably say (else we know what will happen) if claud and goldie went off 9/1 or under on betfair in the 3.00 that would also be a qualifier! And there is an S1 in the race too!

      Francis 23/03/19 7:28 AM Reply


      • Hcap Chase qualifier that is.

        Oops and I missed one from the system bets:

        1pt win 5.20 K – Sunny destination

        Francis 23/03/19 7:31 AM Reply


        • Good job you spotted that – battled on well, cheers Francis ……Steve

          stevet1859 23/03/19 5:31 PM Reply


  • Calling George B and any AW afficionados.

    Mr Scaramanga in 15.10 Lingfield.

    Win trixie on Sundiata 4.20 Ling, Nooshin 7.00 Kempton and Harry’s Bar 6.00 Kempton.

    Best of luck 🙂

    Mark Curtis 12/08/19 2:50 AM Reply


    • good morning my fellow la la land aw trooper :
      oh well so much for my 2 weeks of re vamping trimming and alround house work painstakingly administered to my new aw system yesterday … absolutely dejected .. but then again they were mostly outsiders and did unfortunately run like them as well 🙁
      onto today and the system churn out ( all stallion / course /draw /trainer ) trimmed
      certainties according to my commodore 64 computer printout :
      5.25 Kempton 6 Rambaldi (IRE)
      6.00 Kempton 1 Ghaith
      6.00 Kempton 2 Harrys Bar
      6.30 Kempton 2 Bequest = not system but just what probert has said about distance today ?
      7.30 Kempton 4 Crossing The Line = not system probert expects it to go close ?
      7.30 Kempton 3 Glendevon (USA)
      8.00 Kempton 5 Treacherous
      8.30 Kempton 3 Corinthian ( any price you like .. lol 🙂

      gl/gb 🙂
      just hoping all my efforts start paying dividends soon ? 🙁 / 🙂

      George B 12/08/19 4:18 AM Reply


    • and nudder fing mr mc :
      4.20 Lingfield 5 Fox Happy (IRE) = is really really and more really’s well bred especially for polytrack , Trainer thinks the world of it .. now dropped to C6 !!!! … let’s hope we get the forecast with sundiata ??? 🙂

      gl/gb 🙂

      George B 12/08/19 4:18 AM Reply


    • thanks i am hoping you can bring back into the land of winners today 😉
      keep up the good work .
      over n out
      star geezer george 🙂

      George B 12/08/19 4:18 AM Reply


  • ITV7. half a mill for 5p ew 🙂 (strains of Supertramp are heard in background)
    Strong Pursuit
    Race 1 – 14:05 Newbury
    Champagne City
    Race 2 – 14:25 Kelso
    Legal History
    Race 3 – 14:40 Newbury
    Tawseef
    Race 4 – 14:50 Bangor-on-Dee
    Capard King
    Race 5 – 15:00 Kelso
    Meep Meep
    Race 6 – 15:15 Newbury
    Taxmeifyoucan
    Race 7 – 15:35 Kelso

    Martin Whittle 23/03/19 7:52 AM Reply


  • Having a day off today. Mind boggled with my poor form.

    Warren Bottomley 23/03/19 7:53 AM Reply


  • i keep looking at the 2-40 at Newbury and with WH paying 6 places trying to find a biggie with a live chance, i do like Legal History but is now 8-1, in my tired old eyes that leaves Prabeni 18-1 on Noel Fehilys last day, Fanzio 22-1 and Tazka 25-1. any opinions gratefully received.

    Martin Whittle 23/03/19 8:37 AM Reply


  • I like Tazka Martin. That combo always potent at Newbury. NF last day plus pipes could be a nice tricast. Can always dream!!

    dougandnicky 23/03/19 8:43 AM Reply


    • just had a small ew on all 3 for something to watch and hopefully cheer home 🙂

      Martin Whittle 23/03/19 12:01 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    K 4.45 – Reivers Lodge on 6th run @ 12
    N 2.05 – Chic Name on 1st run @ 15/2
    Festival
    K 2.25 – Champagne City on 2nd run @ 6
    T 2.55 – Scarpeta on 1st run @ 15/8
    3m+
    K 3.00 – Capard King on 7th run @ 10
    GL

    Titus 23/03/19 8:50 AM Reply


  • Irish Roe Kelso 14:25 1pt e/w-14/1-This one has been highly tried but if you look at her record on left handed tracks away from class 1s it reads 5 wins and 2 2nds from 7 runs. I’m not in love with anything at the head of the market and she looks value. She ran a solid race in the Scottish Champion Hurdle this sort of time last year of a similar sort of break. She has had a wind op which should hopefully eke out just enough improvement to take this. She should be up there with the pace. The fact that her trainer is 2/8, 6p in handicaps at the track is a further bonus.

    Rocklander Kelso 15:35 1pt e/w-18/1-This one has had one or two issues as a chaser but has always been a solid hurdler so its a bonus he returns to this sphere of a really nice looking mark. He is 2/6, 5p in handicap hurdles in his career. George has a very good record at the track going 7/19, 11p lifetime and winning with 4 of his last 7 runners he has sent here. It interesting that he reaches for the first time cheekpieces given he has a solid 2/10, 5p in handicap hurdles. Everything that George has sent out recently has ran well with 8 of his last 10 runners finishing in the top 3 and 2 winning. Another who will either front run or be up there with the pace. I thought he looked overpriced here.

    Meep Meep Newbury 15:15 1pt e/w-14/1-She looks to have been let in on a very nice mark on her handicap debut given her Chepstow run (3L behind Annie who runs here off top weight and only 10L behind the now 140s rated Posh Trish). Highly thought of at home she ran well in a grade 2 bumper at Aintree last year. You can excuse her last 2 runs given the first one was too short and the 2nd too heavy. Lacey is 8/31, 16p +31 with handicap hurdle debutants which improves to 3/6, 4p in mares only races. She has ran her best races fresh so the break will have been a help not a hindrance. Lacey is 3/10, 4p in handicaps at the track and Tom is 2/5, 3p in handicap hurdles when riding for him (and has a 1st,3rd and 4th in 3 hurdle runs at the track for him) Another who should be up there near the pace.

    Prince Llywelyn Newbury 17:00 1pt e/w-9/1-Ok the favourite will likely win but given he is 2/5 this looks like a cracking little dirty bet. Both her 2nd and 1st runs have produced several winners behind and she is quite likely the pace angle and she should go hard to keep out of the places.

    nickmazur 23/03/19 9:00 AM Reply


    • Nick, I didn’t know till a couple of days ago that Lacey died on the 1st March (RIP) It’s doubtful his daughter will have the same strike rate and I wondered why a few were tailed off.

      chubnut 23/03/19 4:52 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    3.35 Kelso Aye Right BOG 15/2
    4.20 Lingfield Griggy BOG 10/3
    4.20 Lingfield Sundiata BOG 11/4
    4.35 Bangor Danboru BOG 4/1
    5.35 Newbury Master Work BOG 7/2
    NEW METHOD
    Newbury
    2.40 The Knot Is Tied BOG 8/1
    4.25 Sunrise Ruby BOG 9/4
    5.35 Rock On Rocky BOG 6/1
    Bangor
    4.35 Danboru BOG 4/1
    Colin

    cleafe 23/03/19 10:14 AM Reply


    • Unlucky yesterday Colin, didn’t see the race but gather fire fighting would have probably won with a clear run. You are definitely due some better fortune.

      Francis 23/03/19 10:23 AM Reply


      • Thanks Francis, saw 1.17 in running, so agree a tad unlucky.
        Saw a black cat yesterday morning supposed to bring you luck, that old wives tale does not work.
        Colin.

        cleafe 23/03/19 10:38 AM Reply


        • I backed him and thought that he should have won. I partly blame the jockey though as you need to sort yourself out on the all weather and plan ahead to get a clear run at the finish. You see too many instances of jockeys not putting themselves into a good position.

          martin colwell 23/03/19 11:45 AM Reply


        • Just watched the race on ATR and this is my view.
          Adam Kirby has ridden the AW so many times cannot put any blame on his riding, the slow pace which the commentator mentioned probably did not suit, and when an injection of pace was introduced Fire Fighting took time to get into full flow for he his now an 8yo.
          Remember a jockey only as a second to make a decision at racing pace and sometimes it does not work out, for us couch potatoes it is so easy and not in the position of the jockey traveling at 35 plus miles an hour.
          Lost £80 on Fire Fighting certainly do not blame Adam Kirby.
          Colin.

          cleafe 23/03/19 1:29 PM Reply


          • It is a game of opinions but Kirby could have done better. Every day I see a number of poor rides on the all weather. I guess it is what we have to expect on these courses? A lot of horses have no chance after a furlong. Perhaps if the prize money went up they may ride better?

            martin colwell 23/03/19 4:15 PM Reply


            • Martin
              The race in question was worth £11,972 to the winner not bad prize money in my opinion,Fire Fighter was ridden by a top jockey not only on the AW but Adam Kirby is having more rides through Godolphin on the turf flat last season.
              Mark Johnson won the race last year and he once again did his usual trick running Fire Fighter 7 days before the race, to ensure the horse was fit for this decent pot, he does this on a regular basis over the years, especially the big meetings Goodwood, Epsom etc, Handicaps are prone to this method.
              Colin

              cleafe 23/03/19 5:09 PM Reply


  • Hi all, my three for today!!!

    NEWBURY 15:15 THE WHITE MOUSE
    KELSO 15:35 TEESCOMPONENTS LAD
    NEWBURY 17:35 ROCK ON ROCKY

    G.L.
    Solent

    solentmagpie 23/03/19 10:30 AM Reply


  • Calling George B and any AW afficionados.

    Mr Scaramanga in 15.10 Lingfield.

    Win trixie on Sundiata 4.20 Ling, Nooshin 7.00 Kempton and Harry’s Bar 6.00 Kempton.

    Best of luck 🙂

    Mark Curtis 23/03/19 11:25 AM Reply


    • good morning my fellow la la land aw trooper :
      oh well so much for my 2 weeks of re vamping trimming and alround house work painstakingly administered to my new aw system yesterday … absolutely dejected .. but then again they were mostly outsiders and did unfortunately run like them as well 🙁
      onto today and the system churn out ( all stallion / course /draw /trainer ) trimmed
      certainties according to my commodore 64 computer printout :
      5.25 Kempton 6 Rambaldi (IRE)
      6.00 Kempton 1 Ghaith
      6.00 Kempton 2 Harrys Bar
      6.30 Kempton 2 Bequest = not system but just what probert has said about distance today ?
      7.30 Kempton 4 Crossing The Line = not system probert expects it to go close ?
      7.30 Kempton 3 Glendevon (USA)
      8.00 Kempton 5 Treacherous
      8.30 Kempton 3 Corinthian ( any price you like .. lol 🙂

      gl/gb 🙂
      just hoping all my efforts start paying dividends soon ? 🙁 / 🙂

      George B 23/03/19 1:05 PM Reply


    • thanks i am hoping you can bring back into the land of winners today 😉
      keep up the good work .
      over n out
      star geezer george 🙂

      George B 23/03/19 1:08 PM Reply


      • Well between us we must surely hit a couple 🙂 🙂

        Mark Curtis 23/03/19 1:14 PM Reply


        • not necessarily so 🙂 .. but i like your posidrivity ! 🙂

          George B 23/03/19 1:17 PM Reply


    • and nudder fing mr mc :
      4.20 Lingfield 5 Fox Happy (IRE) = is really really and more really’s well bred especially for polytrack , Trainer thinks the world of it .. now dropped to C6 !!!! … let’s hope we get the forecast with sundiata ??? 🙂

      gl/gb 🙂

      George B 23/03/19 1:16 PM Reply


      • Thanks for the update G, now not so confident on the trixie 🙁

        Mark Curtis 23/03/19 3:28 PM Reply


        • NAAHHHH .. you have forgotten more than i have yet to learn grasshopper
          gl / gb 🙂

          George B 23/03/19 3:40 PM Reply


          • Your faith is touching yet also misguided 🙂

            Mark Curtis 23/03/19 3:51 PM Reply


            • George my man, further insured the trixie with a double on Madame Tantzy and Kings Advice. Also agree with you on Treacherous but have a sneaky feeling Ms Kellaway is up to something with her runner so have saved EW.

              Best of luck Gmeister.

              Mark Curtis 23/03/19 4:11 PM Reply


              • well played sir .. i am not worthy ! .. good night 🙂
                gl/gb 🙂

                George B 23/03/19 10:31 PM Reply


  • Only one for this afternoon and is AW no hcp, is no jumps bets at all which was surprising given it’s by far the best day of the week……

    Ling’ 2.35 Moftris………. 8.0

    More on the AW later with an update at 4.30

    Tim Hanson 23/03/19 12:51 PM Reply


    • Still working on the novice races at Kempton so will be back at 5.15.

      Tim Hanson 23/03/19 4:35 PM Reply


      • Too many kinks in these Kempton races. Always a bad sign when I find myself spending too much time on them, so no bets for me today,

        Tim Hanson 23/03/19 5:17 PM Reply


  • Kempton 8.30 Central City 16/1

    According to sire stats the favourite’s least liked going by far will be standard/slow, within that the least liked course will be Kempton, so he has to be taken on.

    Course winner over 11f, Central City’s sire stats say he should easily stay this 12f. There’s a pace advantage here too and he can make all from stall 1.

    chrisiwyg 23/03/19 2:07 PM Reply


  • Lambourn Trainers
    3.15 Newbury She Mite Bite, NH, Think she has a right chance
    3.50 Got Away OS she will go very close
    4.25 Makety OS love to keep her novice for next year, but she is not going to be stopped from winning today
    4.20 Lingfield CH she should be tough to beat today
    Do with them what you will
    Colin

    cleafe 23/03/19 2:36 PM Reply


  • Is anyone else getting a bit tired of hearing Harry Redknapps voice now? ‘Is it bin day today Sandra, or is it tomorrow?’

    Damn you BV

    stanmellor 23/03/19 4:56 PM Reply


    • Dont you like jam roly poly Stan?

      Staple diet in London in back in the day. Vegan friendly poly available.

      martin colwell 23/03/19 5:15 PM Reply


    • Andred to one!

      Tim Hanson 23/03/19 5:20 PM Reply


    • You know Stan I so very nearly wrote exactly the same post as you earlier … I couldn’t give a sh£t when bin day is I’m bored to tears with this ad I wish ‘Sarn’ could tell Harry when it is and F*ck off!!
      Why on earth they punish us with such mind numbing claptrap which has absolutely nothing to do with betting is quite beyond me …. Rant over!!
      I suppose it could be more painful by having Derek Thompson or the king of cliches Nick Luck.

      Don’t ever get me started on ‘lads lads lads’ I might just explode!!

      Stuart Gray 23/03/19 10:01 PM Reply


  • One for today Newbury 17.35. Lillington.

    silver 12/08/19 2:07 AM Reply


  • Only one for this afternoon and is AW no hcp, is no jumps bets at all which was surprising given it’s by far the best day of the week……

    Ling’ 2.35 Moftris………. 8.0

    More on the AW later with an update at 4.30

    Tim Hanson 12/08/19 2:07 AM Reply


    • Still working on the novice races at Kempton so will be back at 5.15.

      Tim Hanson 12/08/19 2:07 AM Reply


  • Kempton 8.30 Central City 16/1

    According to sire stats the favourite’s least liked going by far will be standard/slow, within that the least liked course will be Kempton, so he has to be taken on.

    Course winner over 11f, Central City’s sire stats say he should easily stay this 12f. There’s a pace advantage here too and he can make all from stall 1.

    chrisiwyg 12/08/19 2:07 AM Reply


  • Is anyone else getting a bit tired of hearing Harry Redknapps voice now? ‘Is it bin day today Sandra, or is it tomorrow?’

    Damn you BV

    stanmellor 12/08/19 2:07 AM Reply


  • Lambourn Trainers
    3.15 Newbury She Mite Bite, NH, Think she has a right chance
    3.50 Got Away OS she will go very close
    4.25 Makety OS love to keep her novice for next year, but she is not going to be stopped from winning today
    4.20 Lingfield CH she should be tough to beat today
    Do with them what you will
    Colin

    cleafe 12/08/19 2:07 AM Reply


  • i keep looking at the 2-40 at Newbury and with WH paying 6 places trying to find a biggie with a live chance, i do like Legal History but is now 8-1, in my tired old eyes that leaves Prabeni 18-1 on Noel Fehilys last day, Fanzio 22-1 and Tazka 25-1. any opinions gratefully received.

    Martin Whittle 12/08/19 2:29 AM Reply


Post A Reply