Members Daily Post: 21/03/19 (complete)

Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Chepstow

2.20 – Agent Westy   (HcH) 12/1 S2 UP

 

Ludlow

4.10 – Valseur du Granval   (HcCh) 12/1 S2 2nd

5.50 – Shantou Express   (1st NHF)  4/1 

 

Sedgefield

2.05 –

Calliope   (all Hc’s)  ES+H3  9/2 S3A UP

Whiteoak Stroller   (micro class and runs)  ES+ 9/1 S3A UP

Molliana   (all Hc’s)  w1 H1 7/4 3rd

3.45 – I’m To Blame   (HcH)  w1  w2 H1 I3 5/4 2nd 

4.55 – Onwiththeparty   (all Hc’s)  ES+I3 8/1 S3A S5 UP 28/1 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -0.4)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 3/52,16p, -23)

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Nothing today

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.10 L – Valseur Du Granval

D McCain (14/1< guide)

2.05 S – Whiteoak Stroller

Tom Lacey 

2.50 C – Fair Kate

A Honeyball Mares

2.50 C – Free

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow

3.10 S – Tetraites Style

3.45 S – I’m To Blame

4.00 C – Albertos Dream

Jockeys/Chasers

4.00 C-  Norse Legend

4.00 C – Irish Octave

LTO winning hurdlers

4.45 L – Musical Slave

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Handicap H Starting Points (16/1<)

4.45 L – Beltor / Defintelyanoscar

Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1<)

5.25 S – Djin Conti / Fly Rory Fly

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book

3.25 C – Pleney

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

1.  Report: THE Grand National 2019 – Stats/Trends Pointers : HERE>>>

2. Post: Cheltenham 2019 : My Review: HERE>>> 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

52 Responses

  1. Rollercoster Chepstow 14:20 1pt e/w-8/1-Looks well treated based on his Bangor run. Now makes his handicap debut in a class 5. Trainer is 12/47, 18p +36.38 with handicap hurdle debutants. This improves to 2/5, 3p +8 at Chepstow.

  2. Rollercoster Chepstow 14:20 1pt e/w-8/1-Looks well treated based on his Bangor run. Now makes his handicap debut in a class 5. Trainer is 12/47, 18p +36.38 with handicap hurdle debutants. This improves to 2/5, 3p +8 at Chepstow.

  3. no selections today.
    old boy Paddy The Oscar 16-1 runs in the 4-00 Chepstow and i’ll have a small ew

    1. just got 40-1 WH on Forever Gold Cork 5-00 don’t think it will last long 20’s most other places

      1. price on Forever Gold holding on wh ,28-1 sky,bv, 20-1 bfsb.
        the reason i rushed putting up the price is that a mate is a personal friend of owner/trainer Edward Cawley and they are more than bullish about his chances for the Irish National and we have had a fair bet @ 40-1 for that, today is his prep race and won’t be holding back as doesn’t have to protect handicap mark.
        I’m always a bit loath to put up “inside info” but we had a good bet last year and he came 3rd.

  4. no selections today.
    old boy Paddy The Oscar 16-1 runs in the 4-00 Chepstow and i’ll have a small ew

    1. just got 40-1 WH on Forever Gold Cork 5-00 don’t think it will last long 20’s most other places

      1. price on Forever Gold holding on wh ,28-1 sky,bv, 20-1 bfsb.
        the reason i rushed putting up the price is that a mate is a personal friend of owner/trainer Edward Cawley and they are more than bullish about his chances for the Irish National and we have had a fair bet @ 40-1 for that, today is his prep race and won’t be holding back as doesn’t have to protect handicap mark.
        I’m always a bit loath to put up “inside info” but we had a good bet last year and he came 3rd.

  5. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 2.20 – Boutan on 2nd run @ 12
    L 5.15 – Hidden Cargo on 4th run @ 18
    S 5.05 – Avondhu Pearl on 7th run @ 16
    3m+
    C 4.00 – Western Climate on 8th run @ 20
    GL

  6. Hi all, my three for today.

    SEDGEFIELD 14:05 WHITEOAK STROLLER
    LUDLOW 16:45 DEFINTELYANOSCAR
    CHEPSTOW 17:05 JUST GONE MIDNIGHT

    3/43 9p
    G.L.
    Solent

  7. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    No bet
    NEW METHOD
    3.00 Ludlow Midnight Chill BOG 5/1
    3.45 Sedgefield Dans Le Vert BOG 10/3
    4.35 Chepstow Treasure Dillion BOG 5/2
    Colin

  8. As today seems to be one of those ‘would you rather watch paint dry’ kind of days can i just ask a Q re Adam Normans’ Little Black Book. Just wondering if anyone has any overall result figures for a decent period for these, and or W/L and P or L figures? Also just wondering Josh ( and apologies if i have missed it !) when you list one – as with Pleny above – would i be right in thinking that any such listing is one straight from Adam’s list of ALL ‘qualifiers’, or (probably less likely? ) one that has been analysed more in depth after he has listed them? Thanks.

    1. Hi John, first off Pleney is just a qualifier, no analysis. I haven’t got a breakdown of bets but I’ve followed quals since 1/11 with a p/l of 60+ @ morning bog. There has been the odd one here and there that I swerved as a no-hoper in that particular race (pleney today for instance) which has on occasion been a wrong decision although probably not much affect on overall profit. I have a suspicion that using S2/S2a criteria would enhance the p/l. Someone may already doing that and have the figures. Hope that helps a bit.
      Mike

        1. Hi John,
          In 2019 to date, as of 18th March, all LBB horses posted are 6/32, 13p, +30 to morning odds I think/some SP possibly.
          I simply track them from his articles and post them when they run, that simple. No sifting etc and i’m not ‘stopping at a winner’, it is primarily information but given the work he puts into them, and the notes we have, a case could be made that if there was just one element of the content you wanted to use as your own ‘starting points’ before deciding a bet etc, those could be it. At this stage I don’t know how long I should keep posting certain horses for etc, most of them are youngsters who should develop and will keep popping up every now and then.
          Josh

  9. FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +76.99

    1pt win 3.10 S – Tetraites Style 6/4
    1pt win 4.35 C – Brigadier Bob 13/2

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT +0.28

  10. as it’s a quite day thought i would ask if anyone else had noticed how uncompetitive B365 have become on the horse racing markets, nearly every price i compare is 1,2 or more points below other bookies to the extent that i hardly ever use them anymore.

    1. They are noncompetitive across the board. I play the football and boxing markets and it is the same there. It is not such an issue on football as there is volume in the market but boxing is a much smaller pool and so is limiting on me. I am restricted on horse racing on 365 to peanut sized wagers.

      1. I agree and bar the odd exception where 365 are 1/2 or 1 point better i find that BF current prices invariably are better. Sometimes with such as Nick’s in the evening i have found BF 2 to 4 points higher. I am not as yet staking high so can usually get those better prices matched.

        1. Hi all, I have also noticed the poor horse prices at BET365 but their Ice Hockey prices are very good.

  11. Wouldn’t it be great if Tim posts the fav in the penultimate race at Sedgefield today? Sheer poetry 🙂

      1. That should have been ‘Pinspot’. Can’t even get the names right at the moment never mind find the winner.

  12. Today’s darts

    Cork
    2:25 Dolciano dici

    Ludlow
    3:00 Gortroe Joe

    Sedgefield
    4:55 Top man Tim

    Good luck

    1. Far from ‘Top Man’ at the moment Stan. Couldn’t even pick my nose the way this month has gone.

  13. Today’s woeful tale…… 😉

    Cork 2.45.. Poly Rock……… 6.0
    Chep’ 4.45 Brigadier Bob… HCP 1/2 Pt
    Chep’ 4.45 El Hageb Rose.. HCP 1/2 Pt

  14. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 2.20 – Boutan on 2nd run @ 12
    L 5.15 – Hidden Cargo on 4th run @ 18
    S 5.05 – Avondhu Pearl on 7th run @ 16
    3m+
    C 4.00 – Western Climate on 8th run @ 20
    GL

  15. Hi all, my three for today.

    SEDGEFIELD 14:05 WHITEOAK STROLLER
    LUDLOW 16:45 DEFINTELYANOSCAR
    CHEPSTOW 17:05 JUST GONE MIDNIGHT

    3/43 9p
    G.L.
    Solent

  16. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    No bet
    NEW METHOD
    3.00 Ludlow Midnight Chill BOG 5/1
    3.45 Sedgefield Dans Le Vert BOG 10/3
    4.35 Chepstow Treasure Dillion BOG 5/2
    Colin

  17. As today seems to be one of those ‘would you rather watch paint dry’ kind of days can i just ask a Q re Adam Normans’ Little Black Book. Just wondering if anyone has any overall result figures for a decent period for these, and or W/L and P or L figures? Also just wondering Josh ( and apologies if i have missed it !) when you list one – as with Pleny above – would i be right in thinking that any such listing is one straight from Adam’s list of ALL ‘qualifiers’, or (probably less likely? ) one that has been analysed more in depth after he has listed them? Thanks.

    1. Hi John, first off Pleney is just a qualifier, no analysis. I haven’t got a breakdown of bets but I’ve followed quals since 1/11 with a p/l of 60+ @ morning bog. There has been the odd one here and there that I swerved as a no-hoper in that particular race (pleney today for instance) which has on occasion been a wrong decision although probably not much affect on overall profit. I have a suspicion that using S2/S2a criteria would enhance the p/l. Someone may already doing that and have the figures. Hope that helps a bit.
      Mike

        1. Hi John,
          In 2019 to date, as of 18th March, all LBB horses posted are 6/32, 13p, +30 to morning odds I think/some SP possibly.
          I simply track them from his articles and post them when they run, that simple. No sifting etc and i’m not ‘stopping at a winner’, it is primarily information but given the work he puts into them, and the notes we have, a case could be made that if there was just one element of the content you wanted to use as your own ‘starting points’ before deciding a bet etc, those could be it. At this stage I don’t know how long I should keep posting certain horses for etc, most of them are youngsters who should develop and will keep popping up every now and then.
          Josh

          1. Thanks Josh, that’s interesting and impressive. As you say a lot of work going into them by him and will keep monitoring and decide whether at some point to include in my (now reduced) people to follow. Tend to have this fear now that anyone i put into that chosen list to follow will immediately go into ‘free fall’ ! It ‘s nonsense of course that my following them can adversely affect results but since i joined it sure feels like it. 🙂 Look forward to when the big uplift comes – hopefully through the Flat.

          2. Oh i wouldn’t follow them blind personally, I don’t, not sure that makes logical sense long term given the approach, and fact Adam often details conditions where they’re likely to do well. A good way in, maybe they will be fine backing blind longer term but the question is when to stop etc. Maybe after they have won makes sense.

  18. FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +76.99

    1pt win 3.10 S – Tetraites Style 6/4
    1pt win 4.35 C – Brigadier Bob 13/2

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT +0.28

  19. as it’s a quite day thought i would ask if anyone else had noticed how uncompetitive B365 have become on the horse racing markets, nearly every price i compare is 1,2 or more points below other bookies to the extent that i hardly ever use them anymore.

    1. They are noncompetitive across the board. I play the football and boxing markets and it is the same there. It is not such an issue on football as there is volume in the market but boxing is a much smaller pool and so is limiting on me. I am restricted on horse racing on 365 to peanut sized wagers.

      1. I agree and bar the odd exception where 365 are 1/2 or 1 point better i find that BF current prices invariably are better. Sometimes with such as Nick’s in the evening i have found BF 2 to 4 points higher. I am not as yet staking high so can usually get those better prices matched.

        1. Hi all, I have also noticed the poor horse prices at BET365 but their Ice Hockey prices are very good.

  20. Wouldn’t it be great if Tim posts the fav in the penultimate race at Sedgefield today? Sheer poetry 🙂

      1. That should have been ‘Pinspot’. Can’t even get the names right at the moment never mind find the winner.

  21. Today’s darts

    Cork
    2:25 Dolciano dici

    Ludlow
    3:00 Gortroe Joe

    Sedgefield
    4:55 Top man Tim

    Good luck

    1. Far from ‘Top Man’ at the moment Stan. Couldn’t even pick my nose the way this month has gone.

  22. Today’s woeful tale…… 😉

    Cork 2.45.. Poly Rock……… 6.0
    Chep’ 4.45 Brigadier Bob… HCP 1/2 Pt
    Chep’ 4.45 El Hageb Rose.. HCP 1/2 Pt

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