Members Daily Post: 20/03/19 (complete)

Tips x2 + preview, Section 1 (complete), test zone , newx2 reports/posts

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Chepstow

4.30 –

Lord Bryan   (all Hc’s, HcCh, micro TJC)  ES+ H3 I1 10/3 S3A#  3rd

Inaminna   (all Hc’s) H1 G3 4/1 WON 4/1>9/4 

5.05 –

Voodoo Doll   (HcH) 12/1 S2 UP

Dandolo Du Gite   (all Hc’s,HcH) I3 G1 10/1 S1 S2 UP

 

Haydock

4.20 –

Pressurize   (m TJC, going and runs) 9/1 2nd 

Hills of Dubai   (HcCh,m’s going and runs) 13/2  UP

 

Market Rasen

4.10 –

Ardera Cross   (all Hc’s, m class)  ES+ H3 I1 G3 7/2 S3A# S4 2nd 5/1 

Lets Get At It   (HcH)  w1 H1 I3 G3 2/1 S4 WON 2/1>11/10

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -0.4)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 3/52,16p, -23)

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Daily Tips

2.50 Chepstow

Pine Warbler – 1 point win – 9/1 (BV/Coral) 8/1 (the rest) UP

Sutters Mill – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) UP

well, nothing does surprise at this level, both very poor, the 16 race maiden taking it in 1st CP, giving his trainer his first winner in 5 years, improving on 0/53,3p in that time! Moving on, poor. 

that’s it for this race, 08.49, write up…

Pine Warbler… I tipped this one LTO where on reflection, looking back through his profile, i’ve decided he doesn’t like going RH! all his best efforts, including here, have been LH and while he’s still a maiden (lightly raced for age) he does try and his placed chase form is the best in this race, along with the other selection. I also think he may relish this extra 2f here as he looks an out and out galloper, who also may not have enjoyed the ups and downs of Exeter. He was going along fine there but his jockey had him behind a horse who kept jumping to his right, leaving him unsighted. Unable to really see the fence, or put off in any case, he made a shuddering error at the last down the back. Game over for me, and it probably knocked his confidence. That was also after a break and it’s not impossible this race has been pencilled in since December, given his form here. 5 starts back in a C4, much deeper than this, he ran with some credit, on heavy ground which may be too much for him. The front two there were rated 119/120 and good old Paddy The Oscar who was in front of him would win again. That was also just the 3rd chase run of his life. On his next start at Uttox, again in heavy, he ran ok but without doing much. It’s his next two runs that give me hope that, IF he runs up to his best, he’d beat this lot. Back here in a C4, beaten 7L, he stayed on well. He wasn’t stopping come the line, galloping at the same pace, but staying on, making me think this extra 2f could be just what he wants, and at a lower class. After 284 days off two starts back he ran a fine second, staying on over 24f, again in a deeper race than this, beaten by an in-form rival. And then he ran LTO after another 64 days as discussed. He should race prominently here, in the first 4/5, and be in the right spot, swinging wide off the turn and galloping up the long straight. He’s a sound jumper going this way round and there must be a reason they’re keeping him in training. I thought 8s was fair actually, as if he repeats those runs two/three starts back, he really won’t be far away against this lot. It could be he’s just got issues and won’t run his race, but if he’s going to get a win on the board over fences, it will be in these conditions/a race like this.

Sutter’s Mill… he does know how to win and does have the best chase form on offer in this, it’s just a case of whether he shows his best. He’s 1/3,3p in all class 5s and it’s his first run back at this level since Ffos Las in November, which was a deep race for the grade, the two horses he split there have won a few times between them since and are rated much higher. He then won NTO, beating The Ogle Gogle Man (form that ties in with Pine Warbler) at Ludlow, in conditions he wouldn’t have enjoyed, and that’s always a positive. He then ran a credible 2nd at Ffos Las in heavy, beaten by Steel Native who is decent enough at the level. He had a horse called Sideways behind him there, trained by Christian Williams, who’s 3/5,4p since that run, winning off 112 5 days ago. That looks a much stronger C5 than this. On his next start at Chepstow I suspect he may have just been tired- that was his 5th run in 10 weeks or so which is plenty for a staying chaser who’s been running in soft/heavy. Unsurprisingly they gave him 50 days off, where I suspect they put him in a field for 3/4 weeks and just let him relax. He returned 22 days ago at Ffos Las – importantly with no headgear on. His win and his FL 2nd came with CP on, and most of his better recent runs have been in CP. If he needed the run also, i’m happy to ignore that to a point. They go for the 1st time Visor here, Evan using them to good effect on Firebird Flyer (who he also owns) at Exeter, rejuvenating him over hurdles and going very close at 33s a few weeks back. I don’t think connections really know when this one will run a good race, so price/market support could be irrelevant but these look ideal conditions, and IF he takes to the headgear, he should race prominently enough – i’ll know within 2/3 fences I think if i’m getting a run for my money. I suspect they’re using Mitch B to take the 5lb off given his weight/rating (won off higher before), and I’d like to think Adam Wedge didn’t have the choice, but that’s possible. MB has won on him before, albeit not over fences as yet, but has placed, and knowing this horse is a positive. It wouldn’t surprise me if he rides him plenty at home. Anyway, 14s looked big enough IF he could return to his form 3/4/5 runs back. He’s won in March before (and never Dec/Jan/Feb) and I hope he takes to the headgear. He could outclass these if he does, and he’s the strongest stayer in the line up, with a win over 3m3f to his name. A live outsider, with valid excuses for his previous two runs. I hope they don’t hold him up here, his better chase runs have always been when ridden more prominently, and connections who hold up horses in 1st headgear need to have words with themselves.

So, that’s those two. It’s a C5 so clearly you never know what you’re going to get but I couldn’t resist.

The dangers…

Leith Hill Legasi was high up my list but his price started to go, suggesting he’s been tipped up somewhere. I can see the case esp as Charlie has hit some hot form since Saturday – this one is exposed but does know how to win, however has never won over this far and his wins have all been in smaller fields. I wouldn’t be shocked if he attempted to make all but I decided against him. He could have needed his last run and he ran well until 3 from home.

Big Time Frank – 4s was always short for this one given he just hates winning – he hits the front and pulls up – simple as that. Dicky may make the difference albeit I’m not sure this horse reacts well to aggressive rides. He will travel like the winner through this but it’s what he does after the last. If he carries on, given how consistent he is, then he may be the one to beat but he’s short. All these efforts will catch up with him eventually. Here’smynumber has small field wins at gaff tracks to his name (Sedgefield/Fakenham- no offence intended, Fakenham is a lovely little track/day out!!) and he can beat me at 5/1. Again he knows how to win which is worth plenty at this level but he wasn’t value.

Midnight Magic – he’s unexposed and ran well over fences LTO. I didn’t think 8s was big enough given they’ve generally kept him to good ground, he’s a hold up horse (or was LTO), the level of his hurdles form is rubbish, and I thought there may be stronger stayers over 26f here- I could be wrong on all those points but 8s just couldn’t tempt me in. He’s on the drift as I write. He does have upside potential unlike many in here so I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran well.

Eaton Miller hasn’t shown a great deal and he needs the 1st Blinkers to work – which that may do, but even if they did i’m not sure if he ran the race of his life his form/ability would be good enough. But 1st headgear can work wonders as we know, and esp at C5 level with horses who are generally on the ‘rogue’ end of the trying scale.

I was happy to leave the rest given their profiles and if something else wins then it will be clear (AGAIN!) why I should leave these C5s alone! Kilcrea Bridge has some good runs a few starts back but seems to have gone off the boil. Blackmill… I can’t back a David Dennis horse at the moment – they haven’t had a winner since the 9th October and I suspect they’ve had some virus issues. He could have plenty of well handicapped ones on his hands when they return to form – maybe a decent summer ahead.

Best of luck,

Josh

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

3.05 MR – Truckers Tangle

A Honeyball Mares

2.40 H – Shapiro

D McCain (14/1< guide)

2.30 MR – Toboggans Fire

4.55 H – Flemens Story

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

H Brooke (25/1< guide)

3.05 MR – Emerald Chieftan

3.40 MR – Thyne For Gold

LTO winning hurdlers

2.30 MR – Shanroe Tic Tec

Jockeys/Chasers

4.30 C – Lord Bryan

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

2.50 C- Kiwi Myth

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book 

2.00 MR – Just Call Me Al (long term)

4.55 H – Leskinfree (medium term)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

NEW!

1.  Report: THE Grand National 2019 – Stats/Trends Pointers : HERE>>>

2. Post: Cheltenham 2019 : My Review: HERE>>> 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

52 Responses

    1. I’ll put my crash helmet on ready, but VD looks more of good ground summer type no? 1 place from 5 runs on anything with soft in the going description.

      1. Well in handicaps he is 0/3, 1p; one was a head second, one was a listed race where he ran far better than he did the time after on fast ground and one was when ridden by Ring and the 3rd run was right handed. Actually that place was the only time he has placed in 9 goes right handed so potentially you mark it up. By breeding there is a fair chance he could be better on soft. If they didn’t think he would be fine on the ground they would have left the cheekpieces off.

  1. FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +78.99

    All the horses gave us a run for our money. Thankfully the Holding bashed Coopers Square won to limit the damage on the day.

    2pt win 2.30 MR – Dew Pond

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT +0.28

    1. I’ll put my crash helmet on ready, but VD looks more of good ground summer type no? 1 place from 5 runs on anything with soft in the going description.

      1. Well in handicaps he is 0/3, 1p; one was a head second, one was a listed race where he ran far better than he did the time after on fast ground and one was when ridden by Ring and the 3rd run was right handed. Actually that place was the only time he has placed in 9 goes right handed so potentially you mark it up. By breeding there is a fair chance he could be better on soft. If they didn’t think he would be fine on the ground they would have left the cheekpieces off.

  2. FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +78.99

    All the horses gave us a run for our money. Thankfully the Holding bashed Coopers Square won to limit the damage on the day.

    2pt win 2.30 MR – Dew Pond

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT +0.28

  3. today’s selections.
    Market Rasen
    2-30. Bowie 14-1
    Chepstow
    2-50. Kilcrea Bridge 11-1 bv 5 places
    4-30. Tara Bridge 10-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

  4. Morning,

    After everything that happened last week, it took me till today to work out how much i was up or down. Now, considering i didn’t count the shrapnel bets, finished the week just in profit, even with one more blip on the Saturday. It just goes to show what it means to actually get profit, but, because of all the furore and excitement, you don’t realise until the cold hard facts hit you, whether or not you are in profit or not. Because of the amount of selections i had, keeping track of them was really hard , especially by day 3…so, here are the stats for me personally.

    42 selections 4 winners and 2 places,
    Finishing
    -2.5pts at SP
    +6.5pts at early (reccomended) prices.
    My get out of jail was the 2pt win on Early Doors in lucky last at Cheltenham, so, maybe i should thank my lucky stars with that.
    My shrapnel found one or two during the week and i had a marvellous Wednesday thanks to Nick.
    I am just posting the above to show how fine lines between profit and loss affect our moods on a daily / weekly basis, if we stick with our principles though the profit will shine through eventually!
    Some of you will baulk at the winners to runners ratio, but, as the header goes, it’s profit we are after not how many winners we all have! All the best and see you on Friday potentially.

    1. Hi Stewart, well thankyou for that and all your effort you put in to this amazing site. I am still relatively new to RTP, just 4 months in and religiously follow your good self amongst others, Josh, Nick, Colin, Martin Francis plus a few random others. I have one betting bank for all (apologies to Colin the bank manager) and never look at ROI and those figures but happily jogging along having quadrupled my bank. Some fun, some smiles,( courtesy of Chubnut ) and a bit of profit!! What more can a man ask for…….happy days.

  5. Hi all, my three for today.

    CHEPSTOW 14:50 MIDNIGHT MAGIC
    HAYDOCK 16:20 HILLS OF DUBIA
    CHEPSTOW 17:05 SIZING AT MIDNIGHT

    3/43 9p

    G.L.
    Solent

  6. Today’s darts

    Market rasen
    4:10 Lets get at it

    chepstow
    4:30 Lord Bryan
    5:05 Klare castle

    Good luck everyone.

  7. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 4.30 – Lord Ballim on 2nd run @ 20
    C 5.05 – Shaws Cross on 1st run @ 14
    H 4.20 – Bob Ford on 1st run @ 11/2
    H 4.55 – Morning Royalty on 5th run @ 10
    Festival
    M 4.10 – Robinroyale on 7th run @ 10
    3m+
    H 4.20 – Halo Moon on 3rd run @ 7
    GL

  8. today’s selections.
    Market Rasen
    2-30. Bowie 14-1
    Chepstow
    2-50. Kilcrea Bridge 11-1 bv 5 places
    4-30. Tara Bridge 10-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

  9. COLINS BETS
    2.30 Market Rasen Shanroe Tic Tec BOG 2/1
    4.20 Haydock Bob Ford BOG 11/2

    ELITE BETS
    No bet
    NEW METHOD
    3.40 Market Rasen Picknick Park BOG 5/2
    Colin

  10. Morning,

    After everything that happened last week, it took me till today to work out how much i was up or down. Now, considering i didn’t count the shrapnel bets, finished the week just in profit, even with one more blip on the Saturday. It just goes to show what it means to actually get profit, but, because of all the furore and excitement, you don’t realise until the cold hard facts hit you, whether or not you are in profit or not. Because of the amount of selections i had, keeping track of them was really hard , especially by day 3…so, here are the stats for me personally.

    42 selections 4 winners and 2 places,
    Finishing
    -2.5pts at SP
    +6.5pts at early (reccomended) prices.
    My get out of jail was the 2pt win on Early Doors in lucky last at Cheltenham, so, maybe i should thank my lucky stars with that.
    My shrapnel found one or two during the week and i had a marvellous Wednesday thanks to Nick.
    I am just posting the above to show how fine lines between profit and loss affect our moods on a daily / weekly basis, if we stick with our principles though the profit will shine through eventually!
    Some of you will baulk at the winners to runners ratio, but, as the header goes, it’s profit we are after not how many winners we all have! All the best and see you on Friday potentially.

    1. Hi Stewart, well thankyou for that and all your effort you put in to this amazing site. I am still relatively new to RTP, just 4 months in and religiously follow your good self amongst others, Josh, Nick, Colin, Martin Francis plus a few random others. I have one betting bank for all (apologies to Colin the bank manager) and never look at ROI and those figures but happily jogging along having quadrupled my bank. Some fun, some smiles,( courtesy of Chubnut ) and a bit of profit!! What more can a man ask for…….happy days.

  11. Hi all, my three for today.

    CHEPSTOW 14:50 MIDNIGHT MAGIC
    HAYDOCK 16:20 HILLS OF DUBIA
    CHEPSTOW 17:05 SIZING AT MIDNIGHT

    3/43 9p

    G.L.
    Solent

  12. Today’s darts

    Market rasen
    4:10 Lets get at it

    chepstow
    4:30 Lord Bryan
    5:05 Klare castle

    Good luck everyone.

  13. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 4.30 – Lord Ballim on 2nd run @ 20
    C 5.05 – Shaws Cross on 1st run @ 14
    H 4.20 – Bob Ford on 1st run @ 11/2
    H 4.55 – Morning Royalty on 5th run @ 10
    Festival
    M 4.10 – Robinroyale on 7th run @ 10
    3m+
    H 4.20 – Halo Moon on 3rd run @ 7
    GL

  14. Lambourn Trainers
    just had a look and one trainer that i trust is Oliver Sherwood
    5.05 Chepstow Seaston Spirit was 16/1 now 12/1 or shorter
    O S said hes a cracking ew bet at the price, first time blinkers will love the track and ground.
    Do with it what you wish.
    Colin.

    1. Did not see race just read report badly hampered take worth putting in the tracker for they have it ready and must strike soon.
      Would it have been close to winning if not hampered?
      Colin.

      1. No would not have been close to the winner.

        Was impeded by a faller at the second last but Fergal’s horse had flown by then.

  15. Two HCP runners today but disappointingly they are both in the same race. I’m not a fan of backing 2 horses in the same race, but having spent some time checking them out they do make good profits over the long term.

    Chep’ 5.05 Dandolo De Gite HCP
    Chep’ 5.05 Seaston Spirit…..HCP

    For the record they will go down as a split (1/2 pt) stakes, but as usual you are free to play them as you wish.

    1. Either ‘great minds think alike’ OR…. ‘fools seldom differ’ Colin. I guess we’ll have to wait till later to find out. 😉

      1. Tim, Oliver Sherwood small stable impressed with his honesty and they are normally decent prices another is Brendan Powell small stable and been quite for a couple of weeks but have had two winners from 5 both around 8/1, and both recommended ew.
        More than likely fools will come to the fore, hope not.
        Colin.

        1. Forgot about Nick’s, Voodoo at the prices not bothered which one wins, provided one of the two does
          Colin

  16. COLINS BETS
    2.30 Market Rasen Shanroe Tic Tec BOG 2/1
    4.20 Haydock Bob Ford BOG 11/2

    ELITE BETS
    No bet
    NEW METHOD
    3.40 Market Rasen Picknick Park BOG 5/2
    Colin

  17. Lambourn Trainers
    just had a look and one trainer that i trust is Oliver Sherwood
    5.05 Chepstow Seaston Spirit was 16/1 now 12/1 or shorter
    O S said hes a cracking ew bet at the price, first time blinkers will love the track and ground.
    Do with it what you wish.
    Colin.

    1. Did not see race just read report badly hampered take worth putting in the tracker for they have it ready and must strike soon.
      Would it have been close to winning if not hampered?
      Colin.

      1. No would not have been close to the winner.

        Was impeded by a faller at the second last but Fergal’s horse had flown by then.

  18. Two HCP runners today but disappointingly they are both in the same race. I’m not a fan of backing 2 horses in the same race, but having spent some time checking them out they do make good profits over the long term.

    Chep’ 5.05 Dandolo De Gite HCP
    Chep’ 5.05 Seaston Spirit…..HCP

    For the record they will go down as a split (1/2 pt) stakes, but as usual you are free to play them as you wish.

    1. Either ‘great minds think alike’ OR…. ‘fools seldom differ’ Colin. I guess we’ll have to wait till later to find out. 😉

      1. Tim, Oliver Sherwood small stable impressed with his honesty and they are normally decent prices another is Brendan Powell small stable and been quite for a couple of weeks but have had two winners from 5 both around 8/1, and both recommended ew.
        More than likely fools will come to the fore, hope not.
        Colin.

        1. Forgot about Nick’s, Voodoo at the prices not bothered which one wins, provided one of the two does
          Colin

          1. Dandolo is an S1 also, i’d quite like that one to bolt up if Nick’s doesn’t, and if he does Nick’s can place at worst! Or as a worst case your Sherwood fancy. Interesting that you’ve both landed on the same one. Best of luck.

          2. Does not matter which of the 3 win, however Warren put up Klare Castle in the race so he will be hoping KC will win, backing all 4 at the prices will show a profit, provided one of them win!!!!
            Colin.

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