Members Daily Post: 19/03/19 (complete)

Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Huntingdon

4.45 – Flashman   (micro’s dist and runs) 13/2 

 

Taunton

2.50 – Passing Oceans   (m’s Hcdeb and runs) 12/1 S2 

5.05 – Gonnabegood   (all Hc’s)  w2H3 I3 G3 5/2 S4

 

Wetherby

2.10 –

Illaya   (m going) 16/1 S2A

Bonne Question   (m going if HVY)  w2 H1 I1 11/8 

3.15 – Isaccstown Lad   (all Hc’s)  w1 I3 G3 7/1 S1 +S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

4.20 –

Oak Vintage   (m class) H3 I3 13/2 

Caraline   (m going) 13/2 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: +1.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 3/52,16p, -23)

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Daily Tips

None on Tuesday, no 3m+ handicap chases I wish to attack. I’ll leave the open looking C4 novice handicap at Huntingdon. 

Another Venture did as I hoped, and nice to read a 7/2 shot correctly as being overpriced, that hasn’t always been a strength of mine! 8.5/9 points back over last two days from last week’s -16, and i’ll try and keep adding to it, and keep that Daily Tips pile in profit! Clearly refocusing on 3m+ handicap chases is having some positive returns in recent weeks, as that hit around -16 I think before I had a word with myself.

Maybe it wasn’t heavy enough for Bandon Rock but he clearly isn’t one to trust, but happy with the bet. St Erney winning at 16s SP was annoying – the type where if he was that in the morning instead of around 10s, i’d be furious for missing him – 3rd run of his life, he had a 2nd in a point on soft over 2m4f, and then two ok Novice runs, esp the first of those here, 8l behind Lil Rockerfeller (150s+) , Tobefair behind him, who didn’t take to chasing. At Chepstow he probably needed it. A tricky one around 10s when they’ve yet to get their head in front in their life, and guessing a tad as to whether they would stay in that ground – but he’s done it well enough actually, a turn of foot after the last. At 16s you can take more chances on such things I feel. But he had an unexposed profile – the yard were 0/19,0p at the track in the last year also, 4/68 in 5 years, so was hard to say it was a target venue albeit compared to their overall stats it probably is the place to focus. Also 2/102 with all runners in the last few years, and they’ve now doubled that tally. I believe everything they run in those colours is home-bred, so credit to connections as they’re the lifeblood of jumps racing. I’ll live with that one on morning odds. Venetia’s will learn plenty from that, he still looked a bit green mentally after the last, and that battle to the line will do him good. He clearly stays and likes soft ground, he will make all at some stage on that evidence.

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.20 W – Lough Salt 11/4

Tom Lacey 

2.10 W – En Meme Temps 5/1

A Dunn

3.25 T – Tactical Manoeuvre 6/1

A Honeyball/Mares

3.25 T – Drops of Jupitor 10/3

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

LTO winning trainers

2.50 T – Annie Bonny 7/4

Trainers to follow

2.10 W – En Meme Temps 5/1

2.50 T – Triopas

Jockeys/chasers

3.05 H – Itsamanslife 6/1

LTO winning hurdlers

2.50 T – Annie Bonny 7/4

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

3.40 H – Capone 6/4

4.00 T – Poucor 9/2

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book 

2.30 H – Ace Ventura (short term) 8/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Festival Tipping Comp Winners 

1. Martin (pige) +85.29  (£50 1st prize) 

2 Nick Mazur +37.7 (£20) 

3 ‘Woodster99’ +32.35 (£10)

2.Mike (Mikeydee) +41.19 (£20)  +28 (calculating error, very honest Mike!) 

 

Additional prize £10…

John Unitt (£10) ... +55… I had to put that to the disputes panel John!… as i’m not 100% convinced creaming some tips from others who posted was quite in the spirit of the competition, but even so it was a decent effort. I don’t feel comfortable with you finishing ahead of Nick given William Henry! 🙂

I’ll be in touch via email with you all.

IF any of you think you did better than those above, and i’ve missed results etc, or you didn’t post, do post a comment etc!

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

47 Responses

  1. Systems selection – Emma Lavelle handicapper if 5/1+ – 2.50 Tau, Dollnamix.

    Tip – 5.15 Huntingdon, Lantiern. This one won OK LTO and at 4/1+ is worth a go against the favourite for 2 points.

    Good luck.

  2. Systems selection – Emma Lavelle handicapper if 5/1+ – 2.50 Tau, Dollnamix.

    Tip – 5.15 Huntingdon, Lantiern. This one won OK LTO and at 4/1+ is worth a go against the favourite for 2 points.

    Good luck.

  3. Today’s would be comp darts

    Huntington
    2:30 Ace Ventura

    Wetherby
    2:40 Louis’ Vac Pouch

    Taunton
    4:00 Oxwich Bay

  4. Today’s would be comp darts

    Huntington
    2:30 Ace Ventura

    Wetherby
    2:40 Louis’ Vac Pouch

    Taunton
    4:00 Oxwich Bay

  5. no selections today.
    a few notes,
    Huntingdon
    2-30. Ace Ventura 8-1 popped up in my tracker from Adam Norman’s notebook
    4-10. It would be nice to see old boy Red Admirable run a good race and @ 18-1 wh might be worth an ew tickle
    4-45. Torrent Des Mottes 12-1 should come on from his chase debut and again a small ew
    Taunton.
    2-50. Agincourt Reef 20-1 i looked hard at this one but even off an attractive mark will probably find a couple to good
    so some small ew’s and a tiny ew L15 for a bit of fun is all i’m doing today.

  6. Josh i have just realised why my festival results on your tips were better not only did i do quite a few ew but i had the equivalent of a 2.5 pt win bet on City Island.

  7. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    H 2.00 – Bossinay Bay on 2nd run @ 13/2
    T 4.30 – Like The Sound on 1st run @ 6
    3m+
    T 4.30 – Calin Du Brizais on 2nd run @ 4
    GL

  8. I’ve got this as a HRB system and it states it has a 50% strike rate so I thought I’d share it with you in case it pops one in?
    Its a simple little format with only a few rules and the stats read
    5 years data, 14/28, 17p, +88 (+103BFSP). Also, the year on year stats read a profit every time, so its not just one year boosting the figures
    Obviously there are not many qualifiers each year so hopefully this is worth waiting for? I wouldn’t go mad if you do bet it though, it still has 50% chance of losing too of course.
    Weth 2.10 En Meme Temps 9/2

    Danny

    1. A small sample indeed and so could be just randomness? Patience required to stick with it.

      Are you going to continue to post any qualifiers, or tell us its basis so we can?

      Anyway, thanks for posting up something new.

      1. Martin, I’ll just post the qualifiers as they come up but like you say, it is a small sample so it could be a load of twaddle tbh.

  9. COLINS BETS
    2.50 Taunton Annie Bonny BOG 2/1

    ELITE BETS
    No bet

    New Method
    Taunton
    3.25 Midnight Owle BOG 7/1
    4.00 Midnight Midge BOG 9/2
    Wetherby
    3.15 Diamond Fort BOG 6/1
    Colin

    1. Oops, sorry Colin I’ve done 2 of yours. Must of been posting at the same time!! lets hope they get the job done.

      Solent

    2. Hi Colin, just a quick thank you for the ‘Colins Bets’ i did last week. Helped me, along with Nick’s to make a decent overall profit over the 4 days (except Friday) Also pleased to hear about how you are getting better after the op, which is great. On the footie I hope Richard Keogh isn’t causing you as many ulcers – disappointing how he must have slipped in recent times. He was brilliant at Cov (Player of season twice – previously same in 2 seasons with Carlisle ) and if my old brain is right at least 2 or 3 times for you?) Young Thomas loaned from you is playing well, and cant believe we are suddenly a point off play – off spot ! How ironic – given ground not sorted yet (even had a ministerial Parliament meeting about it last week) £”!$£%£%^& owners. Its 60 years since i first went to Highfield Rd and these Bar Stewards have taken us to the brink. roll up Karma! Take care.

      1. Thanks John for your kind word on Colins bets this year it as been a torrid time.
        Keogh gives 100% every game but he panics under pressure and make simple costly mistakes very often, said for 5 years will never gain promotion whilst he his captain.
        Early in the season playing fast attacking football, now captain Keogh has gone back to Chuckle brothers football to you to me to you 70% possession one shot on goal absolute rubbish, and the opposition puts him under pressure and its a goal.
        He his like marmite you love him or hate him, we had Paul McGrath centre half who had a job to kick the ball, did not train but one year he kept Derby in the Premiership by being an outstanding leader telling the other defenders where to go, for me Calamity Keogh is an average defender with no leadership skills, how he has had 7 seasons at Derby i have no idea.
        Football as a funny knack of working out not many clubs go under so hope Coventry survive, and sure they will.
        Colin.

        1. Thanks Colin, interesting stuff. And for wishing Cov well, yes we are all hoping they can sort it. Pity you haven’t got back to Prem – but who knows what the future holds. 🙂

  10. Hi all, my three for today.

    TAUNTON 15:25 MIDNIGHT OWLE
    TAUNTON 16:00 MIDNIGHT MIDGE
    WETHERBY 16:55 ELEANOR BOB

    3/40 9p

    G.L.
    Solent

  11. FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +79.74

    Andy Holding has been at it today!

    2pt win 3.15 W – Skipthescales 10/1
    1pt win 3.50 W – Mid day gun 7/1
    1pt win 4.10 H – Coopers Square 2/1

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT +0.28

    No bets

  12. Only the one HCP bet and a couple of non-hcp possibilities for me today. Yesterday was very frustrating but sh1t happens! Personally I believe it was poor training that cost us the race yesterday. I know that the media would have us believe that some horses get ‘lonely’ up front, but this in my mind is just a polite way of putting it. The temptation with young horses in training is to pull them up once they get their heads in front when working them on the gallops. Problem is of course that if you do it too often the horse thinks that getting to the front is as good as winning the race and expects to be pulled up as a reward for doing what you asked of them.

    Some trainers understand that horses have no concept of the term ‘winning line’ and others don’t. Which is why we have good novice trainers and others not so good. Another pet hate of mine is deliberately holding a keen novice horse up at the back of the field by sheer force on the rein such that it’s head is in its chest and its back end is tracking from side to side. Then 2 furlongs from the finish after the horse has settled, whacking the hell out of it cos you’re too far off the pace to get competitive. The horse has every right to be confused as to what the hell it is you want from it cos it confuses me just watching it.

    Just my 2 cents on the subject.

  13. no selections today.
    a few notes,
    Huntingdon
    2-30. Ace Ventura 8-1 popped up in my tracker from Adam Norman’s notebook
    4-10. It would be nice to see old boy Red Admirable run a good race and @ 18-1 wh might be worth an ew tickle
    4-45. Torrent Des Mottes 12-1 should come on from his chase debut and again a small ew
    Taunton.
    2-50. Agincourt Reef 20-1 i looked hard at this one but even off an attractive mark will probably find a couple to good
    so some small ew’s and a tiny ew L15 for a bit of fun is all i’m doing today.

  14. Josh i have just realised why my festival results on your tips were better not only did i do quite a few ew but i had the equivalent of a 2.5 pt win bet on City Island.

  15. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    H 2.00 – Bossinay Bay on 2nd run @ 13/2
    T 4.30 – Like The Sound on 1st run @ 6
    3m+
    T 4.30 – Calin Du Brizais on 2nd run @ 4
    GL

  16. I’ve got this as a HRB system and it states it has a 50% strike rate so I thought I’d share it with you in case it pops one in?
    Its a simple little format with only a few rules and the stats read
    5 years data, 14/28, 17p, +88 (+103BFSP). Also, the year on year stats read a profit every time, so its not just one year boosting the figures
    Obviously there are not many qualifiers each year so hopefully this is worth waiting for? I wouldn’t go mad if you do bet it though, it still has 50% chance of losing too of course.
    Weth 2.10 En Meme Temps 9/2

    Danny

    1. A small sample indeed and so could be just randomness? Patience required to stick with it.

      Are you going to continue to post any qualifiers, or tell us its basis so we can?

      Anyway, thanks for posting up something new.

      1. Martin, I’ll just post the qualifiers as they come up but like you say, it is a small sample so it could be a load of twaddle tbh.

  17. COLINS BETS
    2.50 Taunton Annie Bonny BOG 2/1

    ELITE BETS
    No bet

    New Method
    Taunton
    3.25 Midnight Owle BOG 7/1
    4.00 Midnight Midge BOG 9/2
    Wetherby
    3.15 Diamond Fort BOG 6/1
    Colin

    1. Oops, sorry Colin I’ve done 2 of yours. Must of been posting at the same time!! lets hope they get the job done.

      Solent

    2. Hi Colin, just a quick thank you for the ‘Colins Bets’ i did last week. Helped me, along with Nick’s to make a decent overall profit over the 4 days (except Friday) Also pleased to hear about how you are getting better after the op, which is great. On the footie I hope Richard Keogh isn’t causing you as many ulcers – disappointing how he must have slipped in recent times. He was brilliant at Cov (Player of season twice – previously same in 2 seasons with Carlisle ) and if my old brain is right at least 2 or 3 times for you?) Young Thomas loaned from you is playing well, and cant believe we are suddenly a point off play – off spot ! How ironic – given ground not sorted yet (even had a ministerial Parliament meeting about it last week) £”!$£%£%^& owners. Its 60 years since i first went to Highfield Rd and these Bar Stewards have taken us to the brink. roll up Karma! Take care.

      1. Thanks John for your kind word on Colins bets this year it as been a torrid time.
        Keogh gives 100% every game but he panics under pressure and make simple costly mistakes very often, said for 5 years will never gain promotion whilst he his captain.
        Early in the season playing fast attacking football, now captain Keogh has gone back to Chuckle brothers football to you to me to you 70% possession one shot on goal absolute rubbish, and the opposition puts him under pressure and its a goal.
        He his like marmite you love him or hate him, we had Paul McGrath centre half who had a job to kick the ball, did not train but one year he kept Derby in the Premiership by being an outstanding leader telling the other defenders where to go, for me Calamity Keogh is an average defender with no leadership skills, how he has had 7 seasons at Derby i have no idea.
        Football as a funny knack of working out not many clubs go under so hope Coventry survive, and sure they will.
        Colin.

        1. Thanks Colin, interesting stuff. And for wishing Cov well, yes we are all hoping they can sort it. Pity you haven’t got back to Prem – but who knows what the future holds. 🙂

          1. My uncle lived in Tile Hill area of Coventry and was a season ticket holder for many years.
            Have had too many managers who have not been up to standard McClaren doing well at QPR, Clement ended up doing well at Reading, Pearson after his escapades at Leicester how could you employ him, if he had been a fan would probably been locked up, both were well supported by the owner with money for players both these were sacked for misconduct, former for having affair with a players wife and the later for having a scuffle with the owner, but these and others bought sub standard players for silly money, stupid contracts and silly wages, they all ripped off one of the best owners Derby has ever had.
            Chris Martin 5 year contract £30,000 a week
            Anya came from Watford total disgrace £4 million 4 year contract £20,000 per week, 6 months on his contract left, Frank wanted him to go out on loan in Jan refused, he had a centre half to bring in,financial fair play which they have stuck by, so could not bring the centre half in.
            Butterfield useless £4 million 4 year contract £20,000 per week 4 year contract, went to Sheff Wed loan last year did not want him, now 6 month loan at Bradford really pulling up the trees i think not!
            and we have another 5 players like this, this is why Mel Morris is a fantastic owner of a championship side.
            Academy bringing through a lot of young players like Thomas, Jayden Bogle 18/19 year old full back played nearly every game in the Championship, Max Lowe season loan at Aberdeen and many more so Derby’s future under Frank Lambard looks very bright next season when all the dross as gone.
            Depressed till mentioning the Academy.
            Colin.

  18. Hi all, my three for today.

    TAUNTON 15:25 MIDNIGHT OWLE
    TAUNTON 16:00 MIDNIGHT MIDGE
    WETHERBY 16:55 ELEANOR BOB

    3/40 9p

    G.L.
    Solent

  19. FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +79.74

    Andy Holding has been at it today!

    2pt win 3.15 W – Skipthescales 10/1
    1pt win 3.50 W – Mid day gun 7/1
    1pt win 4.10 H – Coopers Square 2/1

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT +0.28

    No bets

  20. Only the one HCP bet and a couple of non-hcp possibilities for me today. Yesterday was very frustrating but sh1t happens! Personally I believe it was poor training that cost us the race yesterday. I know that the media would have us believe that some horses get ‘lonely’ up front, but this in my mind is just a polite way of putting it. The temptation with young horses in training is to pull them up once they get their heads in front when working them on the gallops. Problem is of course that if you do it too often the horse thinks that getting to the front is as good as winning the race and expects to be pulled up as a reward for doing what you asked of them.

    Some trainers understand that horses have no concept of the term ‘winning line’ and others don’t. Which is why we have good novice trainers and others not so good. Another pet hate of mine is deliberately holding a keen novice horse up at the back of the field by sheer force on the rein such that it’s head is in its chest and its back end is tracking from side to side. Then 2 furlongs from the finish after the horse has settled, whacking the hell out of it cos you’re too far off the pace to get competitive. The horse has every right to be confused as to what the hell it is you want from it cos it confuses me just watching it.

    Just my 2 cents on the subject.

      1. Hi Tim
        I’ve obviously missed some posts along the way and was wondering what your rationale is for a late cut-off for the Hc picks.
        Mike

        1. Mike….. Lazyness on my part I guess, but also it could get confusing for some if I start running two separate threads. One reason why it might be best to put ’em up same time as the non hcp races is that they are also calculated to BFSP, how much of the profit comes from taking earlies as opposed to late drifters is impossible to know from the figures, all I do know is that the BFSP long term ROI across the board is 100%+. ISP is considerably less but still shows reasonable profit.

          1. Thanks Tim, I did assume you were not backing bog and your answer covers that. When I get released from daily grandad duties I’ll be able to follow properly.
            Mike

          2. All my stuff Mike is exchanged based. I’m in the same boat as Colin and couldn’t really go back to the old days even if I wanted to.

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