Members Daily Post: 18/03/19 (complete)

Comp update…Daily Tips x2 + preview, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

 

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Exeter

2.10 – Arqalina   (micro age)  w1 H1 I3 11/10 

4.45 – Hands of Stone   (all Hc’s, m class) 14  H3 G1 9/2 

5.15 –

Billy Bronco   (nov HcCh) 14  w1 H3 3/1 

Snuff Box   (nov HcCh) 6/1

 

Plumpton

3.25  – Morney Wing   (all Hc’s) H1 I3 G3 9/4 S4  2nd 9/2 

3.55 – Goldslinger   (HcH, m -class) H3 I3 13/2 

4.25 – Vicenzo Mio   (nov HcCh) I3 G3 6/1 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

 

Southwell

2.00  – Reckless Behaviour   (m class) 30 11/2 

 

*

THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

*

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: +1.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 3/52,16p, -23)

*

Daily Tips

3.25 Plumpton – Another Venture – 1 point win – 7/2 (gen) WON 3/1 (dec) > 7/4 

5.15 Exeter – Bandon Roc – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) UP, travelled well early, but then threw in towel, clearly Rh/Ground not working, simply guessing with him when on going day it seems, so one to just leave and take it on chin when he wins!

that’s all for today, as of 08.27, write ups on the way…

 

The good news.. maybe… since I attempted to de-clutter my head from 22nd Feb and go back to basics and focus on ‘3m’ + handicap chases, across the daily tips, those at the Festival and in the free post (big Sat marathon chases), i’m 4/24,8p, +14 points to 1 point win. Placed horses at 16s, 20s, 22s. That’s more like it and what I should be doing in my fav race type of choice, and maybe it’s clear where my tipping focus (outside of Festivals/ week) needs to remain. Had I not taken a break to go to the pub and watch the Reds (apols!) that would have been +25 with the Kim Muir winner, who’s price I missed. Doh. Anyway, with any luck one of these two today can do the business…

Another Venture… 7/2 looks VALUE! to my eyes… those odds suggesting he has a 22% chance of winning this – I think he should be 2/1 or shorter, based on my assessment of him and the opposition, so, in I go.

He arrives here in form, having run well until around 3 from home in the Devon National, a trip, based on his previous run in the race the year before also, that he doesn’t stay. Still, he was bang there for a long way through that. That was his first run in a C3 since winning at Hereford last Jan, off the same mark. He went up to 135 after that, competed in some hot enough races (that Ascot 3rd NTO in a listed handicap was decent), and has now dropped 7lb back to 128. He races prominently at his best and gets a 1st time visor – given Bailey is 5/22,9p in recent years with all chasers in 1st Visor, I though that was intriguing enough. It should help sharpen him up and i’d be surprised if they didn’t try and make all here. He still has upside potential which can’t be said about many in this, Bailey is 1/4 at the track and Mikey Hamill is here – it’s not impossible he had the choice between this one and my other Bailey tip at Exeter.

His chance is strengthened, IF he runs his race, by my assessment of the others…

Morney Wing…well he’s probably the right fav based on that last run but it was a slog – he’s had some tough races this season and there’s a chance that Eider effort took plenty out of him. It may not have done of course but in any case he’s still open to attack from younger legs. He wasn’t overpriced and is worth taking on.

Holly Bush Henry just looks out of form to my eyes, and Graasten has stamina to prove. The former may bounce back to form and the latter may stay but i’m not taking 5s/11/2 to find out on either.

Enjoy Responsibly is 10, is having the 30th chase run of his life and has yet to win beyond 21f. I can leave him at 4s and if he takes this then so be it – he could win by default if mine doesn’t run his race, nor Morney Wing.

To Exeter…

Bandon Roc – i’ll have a stab here at 9s as if he returned to the form of his demolition job at Hereford two starts back he’s be bang there over the last and run like a 3s shot here. The question then is why should he do that?? Well, this horse hates going left handed to my eyes, bar one ok run at Wetherby but then he never looked happy there either, and he really is best at galloping tracks in soft ground – his Towcester form would indicate as much and even at Hereford it was a bit tight for him according to his jockey. I think he will really enjoy this track/test, and on a going day he’d track the pace (or even lead if Venetia’s doesn’t, but suspect Charlie may be aggressive as is his want) and keep grinding away.

It could be that he’s scrubbed along early and just never looks happy. That’s a possibility but hopefully Another V has won by then and in any case at 9/1 I was happy to take a chance- I think there’s a valid excuse for his run LTO, and it was in Jan- possibly after a jab etc. He’s still unexposed in handicap chases I think and Bailey is 0/10,5p here with his 3m handicap chasers, 0/5,3p when Bass is riding – they’ve had plenty of 2nds, and about time they won one. The yard are going along fine and I just thought he was overpriced. I’ll roll the dice at those odds that he bounces back to form.

Of the rest… well it’s soft enough here today with some showers due – any rain can turn this track very testing and Moving In Style has a question in a bog, esp in the context of his price. I’m not sure what he beat LTO but he is progressive and stays well- but he may hate the going if this is on the soft side and as such 9/4 looks short enough.

Billy Bronco is clearly a danger but that was a hard enough race here only 13 days ago, and really Lithic should have won if he had the head for competition – he was the best horse in that race, and Billy only won because that rival couldn’t go through/past him, despite his jockey producing him superbly. a 6lb rise could look harsh enough although the front two were clear. I’d fancy him ahead of Mulholland’s and isn’t a bad saver option at 3s I suppose. Another Venture at 7/2 in his race looks a much better bet than him at 3s though, and i’ll see if I have that right.

Snuff Box…well he ‘could be anything’ but was poor when last seen, i’d want to see more under rules from him over fences given he’s 11/2, and he does have to prove his stamina. He is the sort that may just bolt up with seemingly stacks in hand, but you are guessing really at that price and just going on connections, and the fact they may try and make all.A danger, but i’ll watch him for now.

I couldn’t have the rest this time. Vodka All The Way was out of form when last seen and he has a going/stamina question, but the yard are in form and he’s unexposed. So you never fall off your seat when those types win, but I can leave him given his profile. St Erney is unexposed, and could step forward, but again plenty of guessing there. 11s may be generous enough mind but he does come up against a few battle hardened ones. I wouldn’t be shocked if he cruised into this though but I wanted to see a bit more in a race like this before diving in – it’s his first run under rules in proper soft – I think this will be testing enough. I can leave Dartnall’s on this ground.

So, that’s the lot, hopefully one of them can go in, and you never know…

best of luck.

Josh

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.25 P – Beet Topper  40/1

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

2.10 E – Foxy Lass 33/1

A Honeyball Mares

2.50 P – Urca De Lima 7/1

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning trainers

5.15 E – Bily Bronco  3/1

jockeys/chasers

2.00 S – Reckless Behaviour  11/2

*

Adam Norman’s Little Black Book 

2.40 E – Voila Eric 40/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Festival Tipping Comp Winners 

1. Martin (pige) +85.29  (£50 1st prize) 

2 Nick Mazur +37.7 (£20) 

3 ‘Woodster99’ +32.35 (£10)

2.Mike (Mikeydee) +41.19 (£20)  +28 (calculating error, very honest Mike!) 

 

Additional prize £10…

John Unitt (£10) ... +55… I had to put that to the disputes panel John!… as i’m not 100% convinced creaming tips from others who posted was quite in the spirit of the competition, but even so it was a decent effort. I don’t feel comfortable with you finishing ahead of Mike, and thus demoting Nick out the places!! 🙂

I’ll be in touch via email with you all.

IF any of you think you did better than those above, and i’ve missed results etc, or you didn’t post, do post a comment etc!

*

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

57 Responses

  1. no selections but 2 biggies i’m having a small ew on.
    15:55 Plumpton. Sweep Of Diamonds 25-1 sky/bv 4 places
    2-10 Exeter. Foxy Lass 33-1

  2. Had a tough week last week but so far in March we have
    13wins/62bets +6.66 10.74 ROI

    Onto today

    Southwell
    2:00 Riddlestown

    Navan
    4:00 Cadmium

    Exeter
    4:45 Kavanaghs corner

    Good luck

  3. Still no news about Sheffield Colin. Great to hear you are in full recovery mode though. There’s no stopping by the sounds of it!

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +71.99

    1pt win 4.45 E – Ericas Lad (can’t remember seeing a much lower jumps rating than 69 – system must be desperate for action!)
    1pt win 4.55 P – First Lord de Cuet

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT +1.28

    Not really got going these but things can change quickly.

    2.30 S – Deise Vu

      1. Really P155es me off when that happens. All those sheep following him in at any price. Suckers!

          1. I don’t think so Chris. Besides I’ve already been ‘Solented’ by Solent in the 2.10. Currently 12.0 on B/f, but if you can’t get on later we all know who to blame. 😉

          2. Hi Tim,
            I wouldn’t worry too much. As for March I’ve been poor so far,
            with figures of 3/37 8p ROI -42.5%

            Solent

          3. Is usually my toughest month Mr Magpie. Too many maiden hurdles races full of cliff hangers just loitering with intent to skint the desperate along with Hunter Chases etc etc. The figures for the handicappers appear to be ok in March but not brilliant. Roll on the flat I say.

        1. Recorded Hugh Taylor for approx 18 months you would be unable to get anywhere near the prices he quotes gone within seconds normally and at SP you will be lucky to break even.
          Will always be plenty of sheep to follow these tipsters for we all myself included at some time have backed them thinking that they are better than us.
          Taking time and recording them shows how poor they are and the bookmakers love them.

          1. ….and just to add insult to injury the Hugh Taylor horse comes in. Meh…. just one of those days I guess.

          2. Well done Francis for putting it up. Josh aside I think you’ve posted the only winner of the day.

          3. Must have been a ridiculous in-running price after the first few furlongs.

            Cheers Francis

          4. In fairness he went off bigger than he was before Taylor tipped him. Anyone do the forecast?

  4. no selections but 2 biggies i’m having a small ew on.
    15:55 Plumpton. Sweep Of Diamonds 25-1 sky/bv 4 places
    2-10 Exeter. Foxy Lass 33-1

  5. Had a tough week last week but so far in March we have
    13wins/62bets +6.66 10.74 ROI

    Onto today

    Southwell
    2:00 Riddlestown

    Navan
    4:00 Cadmium

    Exeter
    4:45 Kavanaghs corner

    Good luck

  6. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    S 2.00 – Riddlestown on 1st run @ 16
    Festival
    N 4.30 – Russian Bill on 1st run @ 9
    3m+
    E 5.15 – Billy Bronco on 4th run @ 3
    GL

  7. Hi all, my three for today.

    SOUTHWELL 14:00 MIDNIGHT BLISS
    EXETER 14:10 HOT RYAN
    PLUMPTON 15:55 GOLDSLINGER

    Good Luck
    Solent

  8. Better day today with three HCP bets up this morning. All Class 5’s, which TBH is the worst performing group as far as strike rate is concerned at 15.2%. ROI is decent though, so I’m still betting them all blind for now. A couple of possibilities in the non-hcp races, but is very quiet on the exchanges so will review them midday.

    Back about 1.00 with the afternoon bulletin. No evening for today but Windsor’s first of the regular Monday summer evening meets is scheduled for 3 weeks today! Tempus fugit!

    1. Exe’ 2.10 Hot Ryan……………. HCP
      Exe’ 3.15 Dolphin Square……. 10.0
      Nav’ 3.30 Caravation………….. 6.0
      Plum’ 3.55 Good Improvement HCP
      Exe’ 4.15 Hot Smoked………… HCP
      Sou’ 4.35 Cucumber Gin…….. 12.0

  9. COLINS BETS
    2.00 Southwell Reckless Behavior BOG 6/1

    ELITE BETS
    2.00 Southwell Reckless Behavior BOG 6/1
    3.55 Plumpton Ermyn’s Emerald BOG 7/2
    4.15 Exeter Get Wishing BOG 7/2

    New Method
    3.05 Southwell Bazooka BOG 11/1
    3.55 Plumpton Collodi BOG 11/4
    Will do update on profit and loss later today
    Colin

  10. Colin results
    Colins bets SP – 8.625 BOG -4.417

    Elite bets SP – 0.841 BOG + 6.375

    New method from 9th March SP – 2.292 BOG + 7.401
    from 1st March SP + 14.408 BOG + 24.101 only recorded BOG from 9th March so overall BOG figure would be higher than + 24.101.
    Once again the figures show how hard it is to beat the bookmaker at SP, and whilst you have no restrictions make hay.
    Unibet advert 14 million customers world wide so restricting and closing a 100,000 winning accounts is good business for them, for plenty of new losers joining every week.
    Colin.

  11. After coming second in the Cheltenham comp. TBH that was a real surprise against all these pro’s on this site. I did use my full 56 bets allowed so some had to stick.
    Roll on 2020. Lol.

    While I am on a roll, ha ha. I have a couple for today.
    4.25 P The Tin Miner win. 11/2
    D Bridgewater is +34 with chasers running in first time headgear.
    4.55 P This Might Work ew 20/1…only 7 runners
    Emma Lavelle +15 with only one runner on the card (bumpers) .

    Josh
    I see Another Venture is now 2/1

    Mike

  12. Josh, just a heads-up, you haven’t tweeted about today’s tips – that usually alerts me and so may do others?

  13. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    S 2.00 – Riddlestown on 1st run @ 16
    Festival
    N 4.30 – Russian Bill on 1st run @ 9
    3m+
    E 5.15 – Billy Bronco on 4th run @ 3
    GL

  14. Hi all, my three for today.

    SOUTHWELL 14:00 MIDNIGHT BLISS
    EXETER 14:10 HOT RYAN
    PLUMPTON 15:55 GOLDSLINGER

    Good Luck
    Solent

  15. Better day today with three HCP bets up this morning. All Class 5’s, which TBH is the worst performing group as far as strike rate is concerned at 15.2%. ROI is decent though, so I’m still betting them all blind for now. A couple of possibilities in the non-hcp races, but is very quiet on the exchanges so will review them midday.

    Back about 1.00 with the afternoon bulletin. No evening for today but Windsor’s first of the regular Monday summer evening meets is scheduled for 3 weeks today! Tempus fugit!

    1. Exe’ 2.10 Hot Ryan……………. HCP
      Exe’ 3.15 Dolphin Square……. 10.0
      Nav’ 3.30 Caravation………….. 6.0
      Plum’ 3.55 Good Improvement HCP
      Exe’ 4.15 Hot Smoked………… HCP
      Sou’ 4.35 Cucumber Gin…….. 12.0

          1. Was never totally convinced it was home but great picks nonetheless, results don’t do it justice today

          2. A lot of paint scraped off the crossbar today but that’s racing. It’s a long term which ever way you choose to play it.

          3. Unlucky Tim, welcome aboard the 1.01 in-running club! Tbf I’m sure you are seasoned member by now!

  16. COLINS BETS
    2.00 Southwell Reckless Behavior BOG 6/1

    ELITE BETS
    2.00 Southwell Reckless Behavior BOG 6/1
    3.55 Plumpton Ermyn’s Emerald BOG 7/2
    4.15 Exeter Get Wishing BOG 7/2

    New Method
    3.05 Southwell Bazooka BOG 11/1
    3.55 Plumpton Collodi BOG 11/4
    Will do update on profit and loss later today
    Colin

  17. Colin results
    Colins bets SP – 8.625 BOG -4.417

    Elite bets SP – 0.841 BOG + 6.375

    New method from 9th March SP – 2.292 BOG + 7.401
    from 1st March SP + 14.408 BOG + 24.101 only recorded BOG from 9th March so overall BOG figure would be higher than + 24.101.
    Once again the figures show how hard it is to beat the bookmaker at SP, and whilst you have no restrictions make hay.
    Unibet advert 14 million customers world wide so restricting and closing a 100,000 winning accounts is good business for them, for plenty of new losers joining every week.
    Colin.

  18. After coming second in the Cheltenham comp. TBH that was a real surprise against all these pro’s on this site. I did use my full 56 bets allowed so some had to stick.
    Roll on 2020. Lol.

    While I am on a roll, ha ha. I have a couple for today.
    4.25 P The Tin Miner win. 11/2
    D Bridgewater is +34 with chasers running in first time headgear.
    4.55 P This Might Work ew 20/1…only 7 runners
    Emma Lavelle +15 with only one runner on the card (bumpers) .

    Josh
    I see Another Venture is now 2/1

    Mike

  19. Josh, just a heads-up, you haven’t tweeted about today’s tips – that usually alerts me and so may do others?

    1. oh balls, no I haven’t, head in the clouds apologies – normal daily members post always complete at 10am on day, 11am weekends, so always worth checking, and Daily Tips – TBC was up at 8am, to indicate something may be coming. Sorry, completely forgot. Another Vs price has gone, but Bandon still holding.
      Josh

  20. Very fair comment Josh re my ‘competition’ entry. Never expected to get anywhere in positive territory to be honest and take your point re other tipsters. Slightly in my defense i did oppose the ‘big tipsters’ quite a bit and hit one or two good ‘uns as’ well as the ‘plagiarised ‘ ones 🙂 I will be donating my prize to a worthwhile charity. Apologies for replying so late but long journey back home form Granddaughter’s Birthday week- end. Thanks anyway Josh.

  21. Thanks Josh re the comp. I’m staggered to have scored that return and hopefully by beating the legend Nick into 2nd will just inspire him to many more winners. Not in doubt !

  22. Very fair comment Josh re my ‘competition’ entry. Never expected to get anywhere in positive territory to be honest and take your point re other tipsters. Slightly in my defense i did oppose the ‘big tipsters’ quite a bit and hit one or two good ‘uns as’ well as the ‘plagiarised ‘ ones 🙂 I will be donating my prize to a worthwhile charity. Apologies for replying so late but long journey back home form Granddaughter’s Birthday week- end. Thanks anyway Josh.

    1. ha, no worries, I thought you deserved some sort of prize to an extent! I mean even deciding which ones to pick is some skill, and it was a bit of fun, but hope you understand why couldn’t officially put you into second, thought that would be a tad cheeky! 🙂
      Best
      Josh

  23. Thanks Josh re the comp. I’m staggered to have scored that return and hopefully by beating the legend Nick into 2nd will just inspire him to many more winners. Not in doubt !

  24. Still no news about Sheffield Colin. Great to hear you are in full recovery mode though. There’s no stopping by the sounds of it!

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +71.99

    1pt win 4.45 E – Ericas Lad (can’t remember seeing a much lower jumps rating than 69 – system must be desperate for action!)
    1pt win 4.55 P – First Lord de Cuet

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT +1.28

    Not really got going these but things can change quickly.

    2.30 S – Deise Vu

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.