Members Daily Post: 17/03/19 (complete)

Daily tip x1, section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Carlisle

3.50 – Straidnahanna   (HcCh, micro’s TJC and going) G3 15/2 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

4.25 – Strait Run   (HcH) I3 13/2 

 

Ffos Las 

Abandoned

 

Irish Bonus

Limerick

5.25 – Alto Esqua   (all Hc’s)  ES+

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -0.4 )  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 1/14,4p, -23)

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Daily Tips

3.50 C – Takingrisks – 1 point win – 11/2 (gen) WON 11/2

as of 09.24, write up to follow

I fancied this one LTO where he seemingly sweated up pre race, got agitated, and it was game over before the tapes went up. He never travelled or looked happy at all, so I’ll put a line through that. The Richard’s yard are in decent form and he’s 4/19,7p when applying CP first time in handicap chases/hurdles, 3/6,4p in 2018. With these veteran’s doing something different can be a positive, but of course they have to take to them.

I thought if he does, then 11/2 would look generous here given he’s proven in heavy ground over fences and has a CD win to his name. He will relish this climb to the line here and plenty of these have the odd questions. I fancied him LTO due to the strength of his form on his two starts before, which has since been boosted given Vintage Clouds and Lake View Lad finished 2nd/3rd in The Ultima. That Rowland Meyrick race at Wetherby is the best piece of recent handicap chase form on offer here. These conditions look ideal and IF he runs his race, he’ll go like a 3s shot, not 11/2.

I wouldn’t begrudge Houblon Des Obeaux another win but he is 0/8,0p in heavy ground over fences and has always seemed to prefer a sounder surface. Maybe he’ll be fine but at at 3s it was a niggle. Jepeck is being well backed but I thought he looked worth taking on at the prices. He’s 17lb higher than for a C4 win at Ffos Las two starts back and it’s his first run here over fences, a track where it can help to have experience. He was fancied to run better than he did LTO and his jumping has always been a bit hairy at times, often out to his right, whatever way round he runs. He is the most lightly raced of these and I can see the case, but I was happy to take him on at 7/4. He is the one to beat.

Silver Tassie is 2/31 over fences, has had a break and has a question at this class. A few niggles there. Straidnahanna and Rock On Fruity have to prove that heavy isn’t an issue, as they’ve looked happier on better ground.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide)

4.25 C – Wazowski

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow

3.20 C – Dorking Cock

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Handicap H Starting Points

3.20 C – Mountain Hawk

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

46 Responses

  1. Am I the only sad bastard staying in tonight ? surely the Hipster isn’t out dancing. Bit of a kerfuffle today with “the special one ” Nick giving the Hipster a shot across the bow ( smiling smiley) made Mark Curtis’s pea shoot at me look even more like friendly fire ( all’s good smiley) The boss is out drinking again at a time the barn door is getting bigger and how will tipping comps winners react to their new fame.

    1. Haha. Don’t worry I’m behaving. Just on the way back from wolves and can’t keep my eyes open! Much pondering to do but yes yes size of that barn door is a concern 🙂 Something needs to change.

      1. During a bad run betting the expectation is at some point a good run will surface but there’s nothing scientifically to prove that happens. A more realistic outcome is an upward swing that’s known as ” the drunkards walk” one I’m well aware of. By changing your approach you are putting yourself in a completely new cycle which could start with losses.
        Uncle Chubnut’s consultations are free to members, no sex questions please.

    2. Hipsters leaving home at 10.30 for town after 8 weeks,just listening to Elvis to get me in the mood to get them hips ready for moving, no pain killers for a week so can have 1/2 a pint will probably be enough to get me tipsy.
      Could be a dawn patrol for all you service men on here, for if Carlisle is on no bets from me Sunday.
      Chubnut you will have to let me know your address so can send the wooden spoon for you are a professional stirrer good job you are good at something for your tips were poor today, in fact you could say they were -iss, Smiley face semi colon whatever Ha Ha.
      Colin

  2. today’s selection.
    Carlisle 4-25. Instingtive 5-1 at the moment if it drifts i’ll do ew 1/2 pt if not 1/2 pt win

    1. Nice 2 pointer today Francis. Didn’t notice it first time I checked, so nice surprise when i checked again later when doing my daily round up. Cheers.

  3. today’s selection.
    Carlisle 4-25. Instingtive 5-1 at the moment if it drifts i’ll do ew 1/2 pt if not 1/2 pt win

  4. Instingtive Carlisle 16:25 1.5pt win-5/1-This looks like a bad race and given his form on heavy ground I thought this one should be favourite. He has ran one poor race in 7 starts on heavy since the start of 2018 and has been in the top 3 other than that including 122 at the track and that improves to 2 wins and a place in class 5s. He has been running consistently well in class 4s and even a class 2. He should be able to race prominently and given the conditions the fact he stays further can only be a plus. He gets to race off 10lbs lower than his chase mark.

  5. Hi all been a bit rushed off my feet due to family health problems but find myself with a spare couple of hours so i thought i would post my Cheltenham roundup .
    Firstly Josh i think you are being a bit hard on yourself admittedly i did do all your tips ew so my results where better .
    Again a big thanks to Nick who’s tips i do all the time.
    So after 4 days of up’s and down’s tragedy and joy my betting bank of £342 grew to £564 not the stellar results of the past 2 years but a very healthy profit and that doesn’t include using my Nephews Sky account which turned a starting bank of £0 into £112-20 due to their first race money back offer, brother ,nephews and wives are up for a visit in a couple of weeks so that will pay for a chinese for us all 🙂
    My selections although showing an improvement since January are yet to break even but i’ll keep plugging away.
    I have had time to read Chubnuts musings which have been very entertaining.
    Hope you are all keeping well and hopefully things will improve personally.

  6. Hi Edward Crisp
    Nice to hear that you are + 64 points up on Elite bets, and ew may be an avenue i should look at when putting the bets up, but i have always backed win only and now have little choice on the Exhanges for their ew and place terms are poor.
    Keep me informed in the future how you are progressing with the ew angle if you would.
    Cheers
    Colin

  7. Instingtive Carlisle 16:25 1.5pt win-5/1-This looks like a bad race and given his form on heavy ground I thought this one should be favourite. He has ran one poor race in 7 starts on heavy since the start of 2018 and has been in the top 3 other than that including 122 at the track and that improves to 2 wins and a place in class 5s. He has been running consistently well in class 4s and even a class 2. He should be able to race prominently and given the conditions the fact he stays further can only be a plus. He gets to race off 10lbs lower than his chase mark.

  8. Hi all been a bit rushed off my feet due to family health problems but find myself with a spare couple of hours so i thought i would post my Cheltenham roundup .
    Firstly Josh i think you are being a bit hard on yourself admittedly i did do all your tips ew so my results where better .
    Again a big thanks to Nick who’s tips i do all the time.
    So after 4 days of up’s and down’s tragedy and joy my betting bank of £342 grew to £564 not the stellar results of the past 2 years but a very healthy profit and that doesn’t include using my Nephews Sky account which turned a starting bank of £0 into £112-20 due to their first race money back offer, brother ,nephews and wives are up for a visit in a couple of weeks so that will pay for a chinese for us all 🙂
    My selections although showing an improvement since January are yet to break even but i’ll keep plugging away.
    I have had time to read Chubnuts musings which have been very entertaining.
    Hope you are all keeping well and hopefully things will improve personally.

    1. Hi Francis
      No nothing from me on such a poor day, have you heard when you are in Sheffield yet, had fantastic night overall danced for a good 2 hours and no ill effects today, so many said lost weight even 2 doormen! one who said that he had been stabbed at a bar called Coconut or Cocoon so anyone living in Sheffield avoid that bar/club.
      Everyone found it hard to believe only 7 weeks since the op
      Well you are a sly fox your method keeps churning out the winners, well done and long may it continue.
      Cheers
      Colin

  9. Hi Edward Crisp
    Nice to hear that you are + 64 points up on Elite bets, and ew may be an avenue i should look at when putting the bets up, but i have always backed win only and now have little choice on the Exhanges for their ew and place terms are poor.
    Keep me informed in the future how you are progressing with the ew angle if you would.
    Cheers
    Colin

  10. Of Course! No flies on me, ahem. Good on you Josh, the more so as it was at the head of the market which you normally swerve 🙂

    1. ha, well that’s clearly something I need to work on – have to take into consideration that it was a small field race – 11/2 in those conditions I view a tad differently to 16+ runner handicaps! Even 3/1 was probably value, he had a greater than 25% chance to my eyes, 2/1 probably par- fav made the market there, winner is just a classier horse at his best. Japek doesn’t get within 2L of Vintage Clouds, ever! for example. CP did the job, was clear after 1 fence he’d be going close if jumping, travelled much better than LTO.

  11. I find it easy to be discombobulated by a shortish price favourite in the big Cheltenham handicaps so for the first three days I had EW savers on some when 5 or 6 places were offered, so fuming I chickened out on Early Doors which was clearly a graded horse in a handicap.

    Oh no, I’m straying into value territory I’m shutting up before I rouse the Chubster 🙂

  12. Am I the only sad bastard staying in tonight ? surely the Hipster isn’t out dancing. Bit of a kerfuffle today with “the special one ” Nick giving the Hipster a shot across the bow ( smiling smiley) made Mark Curtis’s pea shoot at me look even more like friendly fire ( all’s good smiley) The boss is out drinking again at a time the barn door is getting bigger and how will tipping comps winners react to their new fame.

    1. Haha. Don’t worry I’m behaving. Just on the way back from wolves and can’t keep my eyes open! Much pondering to do but yes yes size of that barn door is a concern 🙂 Something needs to change.

      1. During a bad run betting the expectation is at some point a good run will surface but there’s nothing scientifically to prove that happens. A more realistic outcome is an upward swing that’s known as ” the drunkards walk” one I’m well aware of. By changing your approach you are putting yourself in a completely new cycle which could start with losses.
        Uncle Chubnut’s consultations are free to members, no sex questions please.

    2. Hipsters leaving home at 10.30 for town after 8 weeks,just listening to Elvis to get me in the mood to get them hips ready for moving, no pain killers for a week so can have 1/2 a pint will probably be enough to get me tipsy.
      Could be a dawn patrol for all you service men on here, for if Carlisle is on no bets from me Sunday.
      Chubnut you will have to let me know your address so can send the wooden spoon for you are a professional stirrer good job you are good at something for your tips were poor today, in fact you could say they were -iss, Smiley face semi colon whatever Ha Ha.
      Colin

  13. Of Course! No flies on me, ahem. Good on you Josh, the more so as it was at the head of the market which you normally swerve 🙂

    1. ha, well that’s clearly something I need to work on – have to take into consideration that it was a small field race – 11/2 in those conditions I view a tad differently to 16+ runner handicaps! Even 3/1 was probably value, he had a greater than 25% chance to my eyes, 2/1 probably par- fav made the market there, winner is just a classier horse at his best. Japek doesn’t get within 2L of Vintage Clouds, ever! for example. CP did the job, was clear after 1 fence he’d be going close if jumping, travelled much better than LTO.

  14. I find it easy to be discombobulated by a shortish price favourite in the big Cheltenham handicaps so for the first three days I had EW savers on some when 5 or 6 places were offered, so fuming I chickened out on Early Doors which was clearly a graded horse in a handicap.

    Oh no, I’m straying into value territory I’m shutting up before I rouse the Chubster 🙂

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