Members Daily Post: 16/03/19 (TIPsx3/Complete)

Mids Nat Tips x3, Mids Nat stats/pointers, Section 1 (complete) , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Fontwell

1.40 – Dulhallow Gesture   (all Hc’s)  w2  ES+ H1 I3 6/4  S3A#

2.15 –

Le Coeur Net   (all Hc’s)  w2  ES+ I1 G1 2/1  S3A#

Sky Full Of Stars   (micro runs)  w2 H1 I3 G3 5/2 S4

5.10 – She’s Gina   (m TJC) I1 12/1 S2 S5

 

Kempton

2.40 – Burrows Edge   (m TJC) 30 H3 5/2

3.15 –

El Terremoto   (HcCh) G1 11/2 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Onefortheroadtom   (m age)  5/2

 

Newcastle

3.45 – Bialeo   (nov HcH)  w1 H3 5/2

4.20 – Northern Girl   (m class)  w1 4/1

 

Uttoxeter

1.50 –

Diger Daudie   (m -class) H3 I1 G1 6/1 S4 S1 +S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Holdbacktheriver   (m runs) 14  w1 H3 7/1

2.25 – Aintree My Dream   (nov HcCh)  ES+ 14/1 S2 S3A

3.00 –

Shannon Bridge   (HcH, m TJC)  ES+ 20/1 S2A S3A

Wynford   (HcH)  ES+ 33/1 S3A

Bold Plan   (m runs) 14 w1 11/2

Stowaway Magic   (HcH, m age)  ES+ 50/1 S3A

3.35 –

Ballydine   (HcCh)  H1 11/1 S2

Get On The Yager   (m TJC)  ES+ 18/1

5.20 –

Tigerally   (HcH, m’s TJC and dist)  ES+ H1 15/8 S3A

Astra Via   (m runs) I3 5/2

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -5.9 )  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 1/14,4p, -7)

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Festival Week 2019  (2/35,11p, -13… 2/16 races)

3.35 Uttoxeter : Midland’s National TIPs

Arthur’s Gift – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)

Prime Venture – 1 point win – 22/1 (gen)

Jammin Masters  – 1 point win – 28/1 (BV/Betf) 25/1 (gen)

that’s all, 09.52, write ups on the way…

 

Well it’s been a crappy week in truth with plenty of placed horses and a handful of dodgy/wrong decisions. I’m desperately hoping (praying!) that I can find the fourth winner in the last five renewals of this race, which is probably my favourite/luckiest long distance handicap chase in the programme book.

Arthur’s Gift – i’ve used the stats pointers as a guide, and only that, and decided that I would go with three unexposed chasers who’s better days are ahead of them and who ‘may’ thrive in conditions. Twister’s chase has some decent form to his name and it was no surprise he won his first chase LTO stepping up in trip at a stiff track. He always ran over hurdles, inc in the mud, as if he’d want a proper test. Clearly it’s educated guesswork as to what will happen past 25f or so but I thought he was well worth a crack at this and 14s was too big. He jumped well LTO and cruised into the race, galloping on strongly through the line. The trainer won this in 2007 and if he could do so again would get back nearly all my week’s losses to date. However, i’d much prefer if one of the 20s+ shots won..

Prime Venture – he has muddy Ffos Las/Chepstow form which is never a bad thing when going into a race like this. His trainer is in fine form and has won the race previously. This horse had some decent enough hurdles form and has run well on his last two chases, chasing home the Welsh National 2nd two starts back. He hasn’t been given a hard time at the business end in those and he does run as if he’s well worth a go at a marathon trip. Maybe it will come too soon for him but I suspect they will creep away in mid division and he could be delivered to perfection over the last couple here. He has yet to win over fences but without days his best days are still ahead of him and that can’t be said for most in this race.

Jammin Master’s – well he does hit the trends, he’s unexposed, a case can be made and he’s 25s. Arguably his best run over hurdles was in heavy ground and Wincanton and his best chase run to date was at Ascot 3 starts back, which was on soft. That was a decent run considering he came from the back and I thought again, like the other two, he would enjoy conditions and they could bring about plenty of improvement. His trainer has only sent two horses to run in this, one placing, and on a busy day of racing it’s interesting that Gavin S is here. I don’t think he’s appreciated the better ground the last twice, nor being ridden so aggressively. If he gets into a jumping rhythm here he runs as if he’ll be grinding away come the line.

Fingers crossed one can go in!

Of the rest… well i’ve stayed away from the exposed ‘been there and done it’ brigade and if one wins so be it.  Folsom Blue and Milansbar have been well found in the market but i’m happy to take them on. Back To The Thatch was PU in this last year and his trainer could be in better form – 8s didn’t look overly generous I didn’t think. I’m not sure this ground will suit plenty in here and I was happy to leave the rest. Chef D’Oeuvre arrives in form but I thought there would be stronger stayers in here, in this ground. I could be wrong but he doesn’t strike me as a slogger.

Best of luck.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

R Hobson 

3.45 N – Lord Du Mesnil

2.25 U – Eureu Du Boulay

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.25 U – Late Romantic

4.45 U – Cuddles Mcgraw

3.00 U – Duarigle

A Honeyball/mares

1.40 F – Duhallow gesture

2.50 F – Shapiro

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning trainers

1.50 U – Solstice Star

4.10 U – Back On The Lash

3.00 U – Lord Napier

3.10 N – The Gipper

1.50 U – Holdbacktheriver

3.00 U – Bold Plan

Jockeys/Chasers

3.35 U – Ballydine

4.45 U – Reckless Behaviour

Trainers to follow

3.10 N – Vado Forte

2.25 N – Polydora

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points 

4.55 N – Graystown

Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

1.40 F – Miss Tynte

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

If you entered the tipping comp don’t forget to post your P/L to BFSP below, 1 point win. Prizes for top 3. 

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Midland’s National Stats Pointers

10/10 carried 11-5 or less

  • 11-6+ : 0/28, 6p (11-12 -0/10,4p)

10/10 yet to run beyond 4m in career (had : 0/67, 15p)

10/10 had 0-1 run at track (3+ : 0/34, 5p)

10/10 1-3 runs prev 90 days (0/22,4p outside this)

9/10 aged 6-9

  • 10: 0/33,6p
  • 11: 1/17,5p

8/10 had 18 or fewer career runs (19+: 2/87, 15p)

Other

  • French bred: 0/23,3p
  • 9 or fewer career runs: 3/11,4p
  • 0 handicap wins: 0/19,4p
  • 2 handicap chase wins only: 0/39,9p

Track LTO

  • Chepstow: 3/10, 4p
  • Newcastle: 0/23,3p

 

Trainers

  • D Pipe: 4/11,5p
  • X1: R Buckler/J Dreaper/Fergal O’Brien/E Williams/Jonjo ONeill

Shortlist

The 4 x 10/10 stats leave…

Folsom Blue / Ballydine / Arthur’s Gift / Prime Venture / Jammin Masters / Jetstream Jack

 

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BLESSED…

just a quick note to say I’m off to Wolvs later to watch her run in the 5.40 – we are trying her over 1m, in part as an experiment to see if she stays/it unlocks some improvement. I think she may get it just about but you never know. Her last run can just be ignored given the draw etc and we will be positive with her tonight. There’s only 4lb covering the field and if she can get a good position she’ll be there turning form home. We will see what happens in the final furlong! Sadly I’ve long missed her price, she was 25s, but now 8s! Some of my syndicate friends unloading on the machine no doubt!

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

145 Responses

  1. Well I had my best Cheltenham in recent years with a €230 loss and if I can emulate that at Aintree life will be great. Back to the belts and braces tomorrow. Sadly the books haven’t made any bollock drops on my selections so a careful day ahead.
    3.35 Uttox Chef D’Oeuvre 1.5 pts each way @ 10/1 7 places Billyhill.
    3.10 Newc Vado Forte 9/2 365
    4.55 Newc Mumgo’s debut 9/2 365
    1 pt each way double
    Waiting to see if there’s a bet in the 6.15 wolv

  2. RECENT TIPS
    Putting these up tonight without odds (will add them 0900 ish) for your perusal esp the 3.35. Pretty much tells it’s own story where Josh’s tips are concerned.

    Daily
    K 3.15 – Forth Bridge on 5th run
    K 4.25 – Hit The Highway on 4th run
    N 2.00 – See The Sea on 1st run
    U 3.00 – Air Horse One on 5th and 8th run
    U 3.35 – Jammin Masters on 4th run
    U 4.45 – Bob Ford on 1st run
    Festival
    K 2.40 – Star of Lanka on 2nd run
    U 3.35 – Ms Parfois on 3rd run
    …………Prime Venture on 7th run
    …………Milansbar on 3rd run
    …………Final Nudge on 4th and 5th run
    3m+
    N 2.35 – Onderun on 5th run
    U 3.35 – Dell Arca on 4th run
    …………Regal Flow on 3rd and 5th run
    …………Kilkishen on 1st run
    …………Jetstream Jack on 5th run
    …………Ballymalin on 4th run

    So half the Midlands field is made up from Josh’s past tips.
    Regal Flow won last year when tipped by Josh and has been tipped twice by him since.
    GL

  3. Hi Josh

    Tipping Comp i finished on + £85.29 over the 4 days on my calcs. Let me know if you require any further info

    Thanks Pige

    1. That looks good to me Martin, very well done. I suspect that £50 is winging its way to you haha. There are prizes for top 3 so post away folks. Josh

        1. +37.7 for me (sorry was off a couple pts earlier and had Lisp which doesn’t make the official stat figures)

  4. DECLOAKING THE VALUE CLOUD

    ( in a Universe where everyone is an expert )
    Another Redwine production

    One of the biggest influences in our brain is Conformation and no matter how confident one is in their evaluation it will always be sought from any quarter. We’ve all been there, we make a selection and immediately seek any opinion, data or reason to validate our own findings. Highlighting the pro’s and nonchalantly ignoring the con’s is only part of the thinking process. Nowadays the need to assure ourselves that we are making the right move requires more recent theories such as Mathematical evidence and one of the old chestnuts from the early days of salesmanship has remained firm, even infiltrating the “greenhorn” vocabulary.

    So the term “value” is bandied about regardless of any authenticity and a blanket of comfort is set in place. On another level the brain works in the background on ways of pre-empting the pain of being wrong, “bad luck” is the main contributor but the psyche now needs a more solid, scientific cause and “value” gives a justified safety net reasoning for the loss.

    Those who had inside info in the 1980s where beating early odds was commonplace had a wry saying “double the odds a loser” which reinforced the thinking that losses were only borrowed. “Value” conjures those same feelings of smugness in that by the mere utterance of the word, future profits are almost guaranteed. The truth is nobody has a clue what value is, some are delusional in their opinion, others optimistic and yet more subconsciously anchored by the books opening odds. The reverse happens to the majority of punters when the books open their selection at twice the expected odds, immediately doubt sinks in. Our brains are wired to join the Herd, believe the crowd. It’s incredible the stock people put in the markets ( no pun intended) Even while we all feel superior to the majority of bettors, when our selection drifts and loses, we feel mugged and foolish. On the other hand if it halves in odds and loses, in comes the value comfort blanket.

    So what’s the answer Uncle Chubnut? Are we doomed to never know the real value of our bets? Am I the only punter who thinks a price is value just to watch it double on oddschecker within minutes? Luckily for you ( this wont be posted on the free page) I will reveal all. Millions of years ago Man become aware of a psychical sign that warned of danger and although it wasn’t designed to pinpoint the odds value in a 3 mile h’cap chase, the mechanism which told Pete Marsh “get the f*** out of here” can also be used in finding value in betting. Between your nuts and arse is some soft tissue that hardens when fear hits the brain, simply feel that soft spot and ask yourself what odds you would lay the opposition to your selection. As the odds extend so will the tightness until a solid ( I dont know the medical name of it ) will have no give, the converse of this is the price that tells you the value of your choice.

    PS: Now you know why Men bet more than Women and why those that do are awful at assessing value

    Please do this value finding in private and be careful your finger doesn’t slip into your rectum as that is more a guide for staking rather than value. It’s been found the use of two fingers is better for 16 + runner h’caps. I will post the procedure for staking at a later date ( good luck smiley)

    1. Value is a subjective judgement on one’s part. In betting we should be looking for value. A common fault of humans is not in understanding value but sticking with it. How many humans would toss a coin 1,000 times at £1 a toss when they were getting 6/4 on heads? Sounds a good deal but most people would not be bothered.

      We can only judge what value is on the current price of a horse either based upon the judgement of ourselves or someone else we trust. This becomes harder at meetings such as the festival as it is very competitive, as whilst early prices look like value we will have to cope with significant volumes of money for various horses in big fields that will skew the market based upon factors such as if they are trained by Willie Mullins or are backed by Irish punters, who mostly go for Irish horses.

      Hopefully now we are back to normal for a few weeks we can judge value a bit better whilst being aware of confirmation bias?

    1. If I am to speak ten minutes, I need a week for preparation; if fifteen minutes, three days; if half an hour, two days; if an hour, I am ready now.

    1. tis eye 😉 alreet 🙂

      well yes … where are we ? ……….. been locked inside a darkened room for a week or so (seems like months ) to eradicate all my betting inadequacies and primarily re evaluate and amend/tighten up / screw down my existing hrb systems on file ( NH ones only so far flat and aw next to attack 😉 ) hope u been smashing it outta da park on the betting front ! ?. I have been following from a far , all the tips this week from the great opinionators …… been some corkers i was lucky enough to latch on 🙂 . Especially our Warren and i seem to come upon the same fancies sometimes ( e.g. crossfire 😉 ) ..so all good in the hood .. keeping betting low at the mo until i am happy i have all the systems racked down to almost perfection 😉 .
      Keep having fun …:)

      p.s. see Mr Winston (courtesy of Mr Ivory) is back for a run out tonight .. have they brought him back on a winner ? 😉
      yours in the back ground
      gl 🙂

  5. Not in contention, but happy to finish in profit 5/29 +9.9 BFSP (wins only)
    For Sat I go with one of my fav horses, Ms Parfois 3.35 Uttoxeter 7/1

    1. Ms Parfois – ran her heart out again, what a wonderful racehorse, some e/w return today and I’ll stick with her, deserves a good win soon!

  6. Hi Josh,
    Got mine to +55.12 points over 4 days (mainly thanks to Nick’s ‘Big ‘un’. to be honest 🙂 )

    Pity things didn’t work out better for you Nick, but like you said could have been worse. After my tough 3 month baptism and heavy losses i managed to increase my Bank by over 29 % over the 4 days which i m very pleased with – best uplift so far.
    All the best as we move forward.

  7. Primal Focus traded 1.01 in-running only to fluff his lines at the last and fall. Very frustrating! Clayton nearly paid for the 2 point loser returning 13/8 SP.

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +65.99

    2pt win – 4.20 N – Northern Girl
    2pt win – 4.20 N Arctic Road

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT +2.28

    3.15 K – Kayf Blanco

  8. Star Of Lanka Kempton 14:40 1pt e/w
    Scotchtown Uttoxeter 14:25 1pt e/w
    Chef DOeuvre Uttoxeter 15:35 1pt e/w

    One more bigger priced one to be posted in the morning

  9. Never can get my mind around this Value idea.
    More Reams of Waffle written about it over the Years . Than anything else
    Especially with Regard to Horses .
    Decided This year’s Festival
    To Use my 60pt Bank investing in Nicks Limited Selections
    10 Quid EW Returned over £500
    That to me Was Good Value .
    Are Contributers out there Going to Tell Me/ us That the Better Value was Gained by Those Tipping losers at what were perceived as Better Value
    Or that Nicks Bets didn’t represent Value .
    Profit is Profit to Me
    Obviously to me his Losers did not.
    Slightly Confused
    Cheers Nick

    R

  10. Thanks again Nick for your great work this week. Just wondering if at some point you might consider penning something on your take on the issue of ‘value’ ? 🙂

    1. I’d would say value is where you feel a horse should be shorter than it actually is. Although saying that you need to think it has a chance of winning. I’m going to partially disagree with the Prophet JustalittlebitNutz here in that if I tip a horse at 8/1 and it goes off at 3/1 since everyone has the option to lay off and guarantee a profit in that circumstance if they do chose to do so particularly as your money is worth over 250% of what it was when you placed the bet.

  11. Well I had my best Cheltenham in recent years with a €230 loss and if I can emulate that at Aintree life will be great. Back to the belts and braces tomorrow. Sadly the books haven’t made any bollock drops on my selections so a careful day ahead.
    3.35 Uttox Chef D’Oeuvre 1.5 pts each way @ 10/1 7 places Billyhill.
    3.10 Newc Vado Forte 9/2 365
    4.55 Newc Mumgo’s debut 9/2 365
    1 pt each way double
    Waiting to see if there’s a bet in the 6.15 wolv

  12. On the subject of value. I’d rather back a loser with a positive expected value than a winner with a negative expected value. Takes a while to get in to this mindset but when you do you’re halfway there.

  13. RECENT TIPS
    Putting these up tonight without odds (will add them 0900 ish) for your perusal esp the 3.35. Pretty much tells it’s own story where Josh’s tips are concerned.

    Daily
    K 3.15 – Forth Bridge on 5th run
    K 4.25 – Hit The Highway on 4th run
    N 2.00 – See The Sea on 1st run
    U 3.00 – Air Horse One on 5th and 8th run
    U 3.35 – Jammin Masters on 4th run
    U 4.45 – Bob Ford on 1st run
    Festival
    K 2.40 – Star of Lanka on 2nd run
    U 3.35 – Ms Parfois on 3rd run
    …………Prime Venture on 7th run
    …………Milansbar on 3rd run
    …………Final Nudge on 4th and 5th run
    3m+
    N 2.35 – Onderun on 5th run
    U 3.35 – Dell Arca on 4th run
    …………Regal Flow on 3rd and 5th run
    …………Kilkishen on 1st run
    …………Jetstream Jack on 5th run
    …………Ballymalin on 4th run

    So half the Midlands field is made up from Josh’s past tips.
    Regal Flow won last year when tipped by Josh and has been tipped twice by him since.
    GL

      1. Odds in order of above
        FB 9/1…HTH 11/2…STS 5/1…AHO 33/1…JM 25/1…BF 13/2
        SOL 7/1…MP 7/1…PV 25/1…M 10/1…FN 33/1
        O 12/1…DA 25/1…RF 33/1…K 16/1…JJ 100/1…B nr

  14. Hi Josh

    Tipping Comp i finished on + £85.29 over the 4 days on my calcs. Let me know if you require any further info

    Thanks Pige

    1. That looks good to me Martin, very well done. I suspect that £50 is winging its way to you haha. There are prizes for top 3 so post away folks. Josh

        1. +37.7 for me (sorry was off a couple pts earlier and had Lisp which doesn’t make the official stat figures)

        1. Hi all, my sad effort came in as:- (2/16 6p +6.5Pt)

          Overall, a good 4 days with listening and taking note of the best tipsters there is on here.

          Well done everybody,

          G.L.
          Solent

  15. DECLOAKING THE VALUE CLOUD

    ( in a Universe where everyone is an expert )
    Another Redwine production

    One of the biggest influences in our brain is Conformation and no matter how confident one is in their evaluation it will always be sought from any quarter. We’ve all been there, we make a selection and immediately seek any opinion, data or reason to validate our own findings. Highlighting the pro’s and nonchalantly ignoring the con’s is only part of the thinking process. Nowadays the need to assure ourselves that we are making the right move requires more recent theories such as Mathematical evidence and one of the old chestnuts from the early days of salesmanship has remained firm, even infiltrating the “greenhorn” vocabulary.

    So the term “value” is bandied about regardless of any authenticity and a blanket of comfort is set in place. On another level the brain works in the background on ways of pre-empting the pain of being wrong, “bad luck” is the main contributor but the psyche now needs a more solid, scientific cause and “value” gives a justified safety net reasoning for the loss.

    Those who had inside info in the 1980s where beating early odds was commonplace had a wry saying “double the odds a loser” which reinforced the thinking that losses were only borrowed. “Value” conjures those same feelings of smugness in that by the mere utterance of the word, future profits are almost guaranteed. The truth is nobody has a clue what value is, some are delusional in their opinion, others optimistic and yet more subconsciously anchored by the books opening odds. The reverse happens to the majority of punters when the books open their selection at twice the expected odds, immediately doubt sinks in. Our brains are wired to join the Herd, believe the crowd. It’s incredible the stock people put in the markets ( no pun intended) Even while we all feel superior to the majority of bettors, when our selection drifts and loses, we feel mugged and foolish. On the other hand if it halves in odds and loses, in comes the value comfort blanket.

    So what’s the answer Uncle Chubnut? Are we doomed to never know the real value of our bets? Am I the only punter who thinks a price is value just to watch it double on oddschecker within minutes? Luckily for you ( this wont be posted on the free page) I will reveal all. Millions of years ago Man become aware of a psychical sign that warned of danger and although it wasn’t designed to pinpoint the odds value in a 3 mile h’cap chase, the mechanism which told Pete Marsh “get the f*** out of here” can also be used in finding value in betting. Between your nuts and arse is some soft tissue that hardens when fear hits the brain, simply feel that soft spot and ask yourself what odds you would lay the opposition to your selection. As the odds extend so will the tightness until a solid ( I dont know the medical name of it ) will have no give, the converse of this is the price that tells you the value of your choice.

    PS: Now you know why Men bet more than Women and why those that do are awful at assessing value

    Please do this value finding in private and be careful your finger doesn’t slip into your rectum as that is more a guide for staking rather than value. It’s been found the use of two fingers is better for 16 + runner h’caps. I will post the procedure for staking at a later date ( good luck smiley)

    1. Value is a subjective judgement on one’s part. In betting we should be looking for value. A common fault of humans is not in understanding value but sticking with it. How many humans would toss a coin 1,000 times at £1 a toss when they were getting 6/4 on heads? Sounds a good deal but most people would not be bothered.

      We can only judge what value is on the current price of a horse either based upon the judgement of ourselves or someone else we trust. This becomes harder at meetings such as the festival as it is very competitive, as whilst early prices look like value we will have to cope with significant volumes of money for various horses in big fields that will skew the market based upon factors such as if they are trained by Willie Mullins or are backed by Irish punters, who mostly go for Irish horses.

      Hopefully now we are back to normal for a few weeks we can judge value a bit better whilst being aware of confirmation bias?

    1. If I am to speak ten minutes, I need a week for preparation; if fifteen minutes, three days; if half an hour, two days; if an hour, I am ready now.

      1. Can’t even get the biblical quote right, are you some pseudo intellectual who has kidnapped the real Chubnut? 🙂

        1. OMG Goldrush, how did you know quality street were my favourite sweets. You are a sage and we need your selections for tomorrow post haste. ( expectant smiley)

  16. After the madness that is Cheltenham just a couple of darts thrown at the midland national.

    3:35 Milansbar / Get on the yagar.

    1. tis eye 😉 alreet 🙂

      well yes … where are we ? ……….. been locked inside a darkened room for a week or so (seems like months ) to eradicate all my betting inadequacies and primarily re evaluate and amend/tighten up / screw down my existing hrb systems on file ( NH ones only so far flat and aw next to attack 😉 ) hope u been smashing it outta da park on the betting front ! ?. I have been following from a far , all the tips this week from the great opinionators …… been some corkers i was lucky enough to latch on 🙂 . Especially our Warren and i seem to come upon the same fancies sometimes ( e.g. crossfire 😉 ) ..so all good in the hood .. keeping betting low at the mo until i am happy i have all the systems racked down to almost perfection 😉 .
      Keep having fun …:)

      p.s. see Mr Winston (courtesy of Mr Ivory) is back for a run out tonight .. have they brought him back on a winner ? 😉
      yours in the back ground
      gl 🙂

      1. Good to see you back G. Look forward to the outcome of your system tinkering 🙂

        Will have a look at Mr Ivory’s runner.

        1. That’s Blesseds race! Surely Mr Ivory wouldn’t have the brass neck to beat Josh’s darling?!

          1. 😉 i’ll have a word in his “shell like” 🙂

            gl/gb

            p.s. i am looking : 1.50 Uttoxeter 5 Holdbacktheriver e/w ????
            i think it could mr mme . Evans day to day ??

            gl/gb 🙂

          2. Bloody Hell George is back! I thought you’d decided to Jack it, missing out on Cheltenham and all. Have one for you in the Fontwell 5.10, but can’t tell you what it is. Sworn to secrecy and all that. 😉 I know nooorrrrthing!

      2. Good to see you back George. Had a shocker of a CHELTENHAM. But I usually do so nothing new

        1. yep thanks Warren ….. when my system brought up about 20 qualifiers in each race .. i knew it was time to go and have a lie down 🙂 …. let’s hope we can start bashing the bookies once again 🙂 … loving your work 🙂
          p.s. i had a few nice places but very few winners at chelters ……. hey hum 🙁
          gl/gb 🙂

  17. Not in contention, but happy to finish in profit 5/29 +9.9 BFSP (wins only)
    For Sat I go with one of my fav horses, Ms Parfois 3.35 Uttoxeter 7/1

    1. Ms Parfois – ran her heart out again, what a wonderful racehorse, some e/w return today and I’ll stick with her, deserves a good win soon!

  18. Hi Josh,
    Got mine to +55.12 points over 4 days (mainly thanks to Nick’s ‘Big ‘un’. to be honest 🙂 )

    Pity things didn’t work out better for you Nick, but like you said could have been worse. After my tough 3 month baptism and heavy losses i managed to increase my Bank by over 29 % over the 4 days which i m very pleased with – best uplift so far.
    All the best as we move forward.

  19. Primal Focus traded 1.01 in-running only to fluff his lines at the last and fall. Very frustrating! Clayton nearly paid for the 2 point loser returning 13/8 SP.

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +65.99

    2pt win – 4.20 N – Northern Girl
    2pt win – 4.20 N Arctic Road

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT +2.28

    3.15 K – Kayf Blanco

  20. Star Of Lanka Kempton 14:40 1pt e/w
    Scotchtown Uttoxeter 14:25 1pt e/w
    Chef DOeuvre Uttoxeter 15:35 1pt e/w

    One more bigger priced one to be posted in the morning

  21. Never can get my mind around this Value idea.
    More Reams of Waffle written about it over the Years . Than anything else
    Especially with Regard to Horses .
    Decided This year’s Festival
    To Use my 60pt Bank investing in Nicks Limited Selections
    10 Quid EW Returned over £500
    That to me Was Good Value .
    Are Contributers out there Going to Tell Me/ us That the Better Value was Gained by Those Tipping losers at what were perceived as Better Value
    Or that Nicks Bets didn’t represent Value .
    Profit is Profit to Me
    Obviously to me his Losers did not.
    Slightly Confused
    Cheers Nick

    R

    1. Nick has been making an excellent profit on here for over a year. If he wasn’t making value selections he wouldn’t be able to maintain that for as long as he has. He is in the main betting horses at bigger prices than their true odds. It’s that simple.

      1. Well put. Value is not a difficult concept to understand. The difficulty is in determining what is and what isn’t a value bet in a particular contest, and determining it consistently is where skill comes in, and long-term profits are made. Following Nick’s bets is a valuable endeavour – the reward in doing so exceeds the expense 🙂

  22. Thanks again Nick for your great work this week. Just wondering if at some point you might consider penning something on your take on the issue of ‘value’ ? 🙂

    1. I’d would say value is where you feel a horse should be shorter than it actually is. Although saying that you need to think it has a chance of winning. I’m going to partially disagree with the Prophet JustalittlebitNutz here in that if I tip a horse at 8/1 and it goes off at 3/1 since everyone has the option to lay off and guarantee a profit in that circumstance if they do chose to do so particularly as your money is worth over 250% of what it was when you placed the bet.

      1. Thanks Nick, succinct and interesting. I would be lying if i said i hadn’t laughed out very loud at the name you gave our dear ‘Chubby’. 🙂 As a generalisation i (and i daresay many others) am really intrigued to see if he continues for a sustained period to post selections. I hope so, for me the thought of seeing how all of you profit – makers fare over a decent period of time would be great. 🙂

  23. On the subject of value. I’d rather back a loser with a positive expected value than a winner with a negative expected value. Takes a while to get in to this mindset but when you do you’re halfway there.

    1. It is always better to back a winner than a loser because you get paid out if you win and you lose your money if you lose. Your aim must be to make a profit over a long term period. Just try to do that.

      1. Exactly
        To me This “Value ” Losers
        Has always been a Nonsense
        But I Guess Chubnut would say that by agreeing with your Statement my Brains Recticular activation Systems were coming into play. With Regards to my own “Values and Beliefs .

        R

  24. After the madness that is Cheltenham just a couple of darts thrown at the midland national.

    3:35 Milansbar / Get on the yagar.

  25. looks a tough day so i’m being a bit cautious
    Kempton 3-15. Forth Bridge 10-1, 1/2 pt ew, could be his day after a string of seconds with Nico on board.
    Uttoxeter 3-00. Air Horse One 33-1 1/4 pt ew , couldn’t leave it alone at the price
    Newcastle 3-10. Vado Forte 9-2 1/2 pt win, will love the mud and with all the rain overnight it should be proper heavy

  26. Sorry no write ups today, still drained and hungover… 🙂
    15:00 Uttoxeter
    LORD NAPIER 8/1 gen 1pt win
    HILL SIXTEEN 12/1 1pt win

    15:35 Uttoxeter
    CHEF D`OUVRE 12/1 1pt win
    AMERICAN 12/1 1pt win

    As per usual hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with your selections today!

    1. Just read your post from yesterday and you did well at Cheltenham over the 4 days, you read the races well in your write ups, keep on finding them
      Colin

    2. Remember kids, don`t drink and then bet the day after, nearly as important is looking out of your window and realising you should have put a brick on the recycling bin lid as your fish and chip wrappers are blown every which way to wherever in your garden, but, your too hungover to go out and chase them, just in case some little Sh~~ has a phone aimed at you to put up on youtube later!

  27. Well done to everybody that contributed this week,and thanks for all the hard work put in by Josh, and everyone for sharing their thoughts and tips.

  28. Value is an exercise in perspective. If you put up a specific race with odds available and asked every one to study it and come back with a ‘value’ selection, despite the fact that we are all using the same yardsticks, we wouldn’t all come back with the same horse. This is because we are all looking at it from our own unique reference frame.

    For me I prefer the more mathematical approach which TBH isn’t good for every race, (Cheltenham is a great example of this), whereas folks like Nick appear to adopt a more gut instinct approach where after studying the competition they conclude that the odds of their selection are just too big. One thing is for sure that if you’re not finding the value along with the selection you will lose money long term. So calculate your returns for the past year and if you find you lost money, start thinking more seriously about what you are doing and what you can do to improve it from your own reference frame.

    Following others is ok in the short term but if you want to be successful at the game in the long term you need to understand the importance of finding the value as well as the hoss and accept whatever downsides that brings to the way you like to play. (Usually a significant reduction in frequency of bets along with a substantially lower strike rate). It’s tough going several days of doing all the work and coming up with zilch, but if it means long term profit you just have to take it.

  29. looks a tough day so i’m being a bit cautious
    Kempton 3-15. Forth Bridge 10-1, 1/2 pt ew, could be his day after a string of seconds with Nico on board.
    Uttoxeter 3-00. Air Horse One 33-1 1/4 pt ew , couldn’t leave it alone at the price
    Newcastle 3-10. Vado Forte 9-2 1/2 pt win, will love the mud and with all the rain overnight it should be proper heavy

  30. COLINS BETS
    1.50 Uttoxeter Too Many Chiefs BOG 14/1

    ELITE BETS
    3.15 Kempton Forth Bridge BOG 8/1
    3.35 Uttoxeter Jammin Masters BOG 25/1

    New method
    1.30 Kempton Ashutor BOG 9/2
    1.40 Fontwell Lostnfound BOG 11/2
    2.25 Uttoxeter De Rasher Counter BOG 7/2
    3.00 Uttoxeter Magoo 10/1 BOG 10/1
    4.55 Newcastle Rainy Day Dylan BOG 11/2
    Colin.

    1. Many thanks Colin. I have been following the elite selections since December. Initially into a losing run which I had determined I would fund through 50 bets,bet by bet as opposed to having a bank. I also generally go ew on the bigger priced (12/1 plus) at half stakes ew. After todays easy winner I am + 64 points although this does not include deductions for the early losers.

  31. Hmm I could have sworn I hit send but one more from me which I thought I posted at 9:35am

    Jammin Masters Uttoxeter 15:35 1pt e/w 28/1 (I will now settle at 25/1)

  32. Hi Josh and Nick
    Certainly not a tad tipsy last night, maybe tonight after 8 weeks without a beer, 1/2 pint should do the trick!!! Nick you had a different figure to the one that BFSPEX(I always put this stops any confusion)had given me, notice this morning that you have rectified the figure from 41.7 to 37.7 which still differ from what BFSPEX paid me 42.79, 5.93, 8.80 total 57.52 -19 = 38.52 then 5% deductions to come off.
    All this from mention how poor the place market on BFSPEX is compared to ew terms of bookmaker, so since backing your fine bets have only ever backed to win and once again thank you for putting them up.
    Cheers
    Colin

  33. Busy day today with a healthy splash of 7 HCP auto selections to go at. Is the first day of decent going coupled with decent meetings (Cheltenham excepted). I could have done with todays deluge a day sooner as I don’t believe Native River would have dropped out so tamely and never looked like he was really enjoying the tacky ground. Anyway is all history now.

    On to today….. is nothing after 6.00 for me but a fair amount late afternoon/early evening, so the update will be at or before 3.30 sharp.

    Font’ 1.40 Miss Tynte………… HCP
    DR 3.05 Pegase Amour…… HCP
    Newc’ 3.45 Sam’s Adventure.. HCP
    Kemp’ 3.50 Reserve Tank……. 5.5

    Notes: Sam’s Adventure has been backed in this morning into favouritism so for me the value has been had. If it drifts out to 4.0 I’ll be on but is very unlikely. So as usual it’s for you to decide. 🙂 Back with the rest at 3.30.

    1. Lim’ 4.05 Classic Concorde……. HCP
      Newc’ 4.20 Shtan On……………. HCP
      Kemp’ 5.00 Et Apres Thou…….. 10.0
      Font’ 5.10 Don’t Tell George…. HCP 😉
      Newc’ 5.30 Rock On Rocco……. 7.0

      That’s all folks!

  34. Sorry no write ups today, still drained and hungover… 🙂
    15:00 Uttoxeter
    LORD NAPIER 8/1 gen 1pt win
    HILL SIXTEEN 12/1 1pt win

    15:35 Uttoxeter
    CHEF D`OUVRE 12/1 1pt win
    AMERICAN 12/1 1pt win

    As per usual hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with your selections today!

    1. Just read your post from yesterday and you did well at Cheltenham over the 4 days, you read the races well in your write ups, keep on finding them
      Colin

    2. Remember kids, don`t drink and then bet the day after, nearly as important is looking out of your window and realising you should have put a brick on the recycling bin lid as your fish and chip wrappers are blown every which way to wherever in your garden, but, your too hungover to go out and chase them, just in case some little Sh~~ has a phone aimed at you to put up on youtube later!

  35. Today’s selections
    3.15 Kempton 1pt ew Peacocks Secret raced in Ireland lto, goes from the front. 18s on BF 14s generally.
    Hugh

  36. Thank you to everyone who posted up in Cheltenham week. I found it very hard to find those decent priced winners but there was, as always, some good quality comment on here.

    1. I agree Martin, and thanks to Josh, Nick, Stewart, Warren and all who put so much time and effort in to last weeks posts, much appreciated.

  37. Well done to everybody that contributed this week,and thanks for all the hard work put in by Josh, and everyone for sharing their thoughts and tips.

  38. Colins bets and value.
    Almost every bet this year have beaten the price last couple of bets 9/1 to 13/2 and 5/1 to 3/1and they both lost, this is my worst start for has long i can remember, yet every bet i am getting a value price.
    Ken McKenzie kindly records all my bets and sure he will vouch for what i have said about the bets always being backed so is this value?
    I for one prefer winners.
    Colin.

  39. Value is an exercise in perspective. If you put up a specific race with odds available and asked every one to study it and come back with a ‘value’ selection, despite the fact that we are all using the same yardsticks, we wouldn’t all come back with the same horse. This is because we are all looking at it from our own unique reference frame.

    For me I prefer the more mathematical approach which TBH isn’t good for every race, (Cheltenham is a great example of this), whereas folks like Nick appear to adopt a more gut instinct approach where after studying the competition they conclude that the odds of their selection are just too big. One thing is for sure that if you’re not finding the value along with the selection you will lose money long term. So calculate your returns for the past year and if you find you lost money, start thinking more seriously about what you are doing and what you can do to improve it from your own reference frame.

    Following others is ok in the short term but if you want to be successful at the game in the long term you need to understand the importance of finding the value as well as the hoss and accept whatever downsides that brings to the way you like to play. (Usually a significant reduction in frequency of bets along with a substantially lower strike rate). It’s tough going several days of doing all the work and coming up with zilch, but if it means long term profit you just have to take it.

  40. Good question, are horses that are backed but lose good value?
    I think not. I hear so many times that if you keep backing these types then the winners will come! I’m not sure that’s the case any more. I’ve seen plenty of markets where all prices are trimmed or all bar two or three rank outsiders. To me any price taken early doesn’t have the same value in such cases or none at all. I don’t watch markets enough to know what circumstances apply to these sort of markets or how often it happens. If it is happening a lot then my guess is that this could be why some have struggled to turn a profit in the last few months.

  41. COLINS BETS
    1.50 Uttoxeter Too Many Chiefs BOG 14/1

    ELITE BETS
    3.15 Kempton Forth Bridge BOG 8/1
    3.35 Uttoxeter Jammin Masters BOG 25/1

    New method
    1.30 Kempton Ashutor BOG 9/2
    1.40 Fontwell Lostnfound BOG 11/2
    2.25 Uttoxeter De Rasher Counter BOG 7/2
    3.00 Uttoxeter Magoo 10/1 BOG 10/1
    4.55 Newcastle Rainy Day Dylan BOG 11/2
    Colin.

    1. Many thanks Colin. I have been following the elite selections since December. Initially into a losing run which I had determined I would fund through 50 bets,bet by bet as opposed to having a bank. I also generally go ew on the bigger priced (12/1 plus) at half stakes ew. After todays easy winner I am + 64 points although this does not include deductions for the early losers.

  42. Hi Josh

    I am now back home from 4 very nice days at the Festival and would like to thank all the contributors on here especially Nick and yourself and all others who helped me achieve a profitable trip even if not as much as last year
    Just to let you know my share of the Scoop 6 win was £284 and thought we had the bonus with Eclair De Beaufeu taking the lead between the last two fences but not to be
    We were also in the paddock celebrating the Triumph win of Pentland Hills (very sad for connections of Sir Eric) as one of our syndicate members is one of the 3000 strong syndicate that own him so a very enjoyable day
    Once again thanks for all the hard work you all do to try and find winners

    Regards

    Peter

    1. Hi Peter
      Pentland Hills wow Nicky Henderson was very bullish of a good run on Lambourn Trainers, decided not to have a penny on, and if that sad horrible disaster had not befallen Sir Erec, he would have had to be something special to have beaten Pentland Hills, nothing should be taken away from the winner in my eye very impressive.
      Colin.

  43. Hmm I could have sworn I hit send but one more from me which I thought I posted at 9:35am

    Jammin Masters Uttoxeter 15:35 1pt e/w 28/1 (I will now settle at 25/1)

    1. Hi Nick, I’m sure you noticed that WH are paying out on 7 places but odds lower at 20/1. Do you generally take the higher odds for less places?

      1. When it’s a small difference in price I generally split my stakes yes (I have 30% of my stake at 25/1 7 places and 70% at 28/1 5 places) although not when it’s 5 points.

        1. Cheers. I generally go for more places as the SP often goes higher than the odds taken and with BOG you get the higher odds. Doesn’t always work but I hate missing a place if it gets in the extended frame!
          I’m sure there’s a statistician out there who’s worked out the best way to play these differences 🙂

    2. Avoiding others selections in the Midlands grand national I have it down to Milansbar and Get On The Jager and so will do the revers forecast. Wheelbarrow ready.

  44. Hi Josh and Nick
    Certainly not a tad tipsy last night, maybe tonight after 8 weeks without a beer, 1/2 pint should do the trick!!! Nick you had a different figure to the one that BFSPEX(I always put this stops any confusion)had given me, notice this morning that you have rectified the figure from 41.7 to 37.7 which still differ from what BFSPEX paid me 42.79, 5.93, 8.80 total 57.52 -19 = 38.52 then 5% deductions to come off.
    All this from mention how poor the place market on BFSPEX is compared to ew terms of bookmaker, so since backing your fine bets have only ever backed to win and once again thank you for putting them up.
    Cheers
    Colin

    1. I wish you would stop going on about this since it’s staring to piss me off if I am honest. I am not going to say anymore on the subject.

  45. Busy day today with a healthy splash of 7 HCP auto selections to go at. Is the first day of decent going coupled with decent meetings (Cheltenham excepted). I could have done with todays deluge a day sooner as I don’t believe Native River would have dropped out so tamely and never looked like he was really enjoying the tacky ground. Anyway is all history now.

    On to today….. is nothing after 6.00 for me but a fair amount late afternoon/early evening, so the update will be at or before 3.30 sharp.

    Font’ 1.40 Miss Tynte………… HCP
    DR 3.05 Pegase Amour…… HCP
    Newc’ 3.45 Sam’s Adventure.. HCP
    Kemp’ 3.50 Reserve Tank……. 5.5

    Notes: Sam’s Adventure has been backed in this morning into favouritism so for me the value has been had. If it drifts out to 4.0 I’ll be on but is very unlikely. So as usual it’s for you to decide. 🙂 Back with the rest at 3.30.

    1. Tim
      In the 3.45 race there is a N/R as of 10.33 Ask Paddington which was 6/1, now there are only 4 in the race, understand the 4.00 but was this before the N/R when you looked at the race, for myself will not back it will take your advice about the 4.00, hope you understand where i am coming from confusing myself not hard to do.
      Colin

      1. The 4.0 comes from the past history of the last 5 years in that below this point taking them all (even odds on), you roughly break even. I could run it again for equal or less than 4 runners……… hang on a mo’.

        1. I just ran it again Colin for fields of four runners and there has only been two occasions where this happened and both lost. So extended it to 10 years, and was still just the two runners. The thing about these bets is that over the long term they profit nicely to BFSP so I decided not to mess with them and just take them off the screen and post them as they are. I know that there is little if any value to be had below 4.0 so it’s really down to the individual to decide for themselves as to whether he/she wants to pursue them below the value pinch point. I can afford to just put them up and leave them knowing that in the long term they will break even below 4.0 without me having to put minimum odds restrictions on them, so that’s what I decided to do.

          If people would prefer I’ll give it as a minimum of (4.0) for all hcp hurdles and record them accordingly same as the non hcp races if it makes it easier for all.

          1. Tim
            you are a gentleman thanks for doing that will stick with 4.00 you know it make sense!!!
            Thanks again
            Colin

    2. Hi Tim,
      thanks for posting up your thoughts and your systems selections. I know that you said previously that you use Horseracebase, but do you use other software or your own programs? Apologies if you have already answered this question.

      1. They aren’t systematic selections Martin, I’m not a big fan of systems to be honest as they tend not to take long/short term trends into consideration. Not sure as to why you think I use Horseracebase although I do remember saying I’d take the free trial offer after I had that blow out with Traf 69 over the GeeGeez/statoftheday fiasco.

        I did give it a whirl but gives me less than I’m already getting from Proform. I also have some programs of my own designed for specific tasks that use data extracted from the Proform database using the ‘Export’ facility.

        1. OK thanks, yes Proform, I remember now. I did think that you were using something of your own.

          Good luck.

    3. Lim’ 4.05 Classic Concorde……. HCP
      Newc’ 4.20 Shtan On……………. HCP
      Kemp’ 5.00 Et Apres Thou…….. 10.0
      Font’ 5.10 Don’t Tell George…. HCP 😉
      Newc’ 5.30 Rock On Rocco……. 7.0

      That’s all folks!

  46. The Joys of Horse Racing Punting

    I studied the Midlands Grand National until my brain hurt. I then studied the wise words of a bunch of shrewdies I trust, eg Nick Hardiman, present company on here and several other very good NH specialists. I ended up with 11, yes ELEVEN well reasoned tips in the race. Thats more than half of the runners. The two that fought out the finish weren’t fancied by any of my people. (I hate watching a close finish involving the 2 horses I most resolutely didnt back!) You have to have balls of steel to survive this game! Personally Im used to this kind of thing but today’s was a fairly extreme example.

  47. Today’s selections
    3.15 Kempton 1pt ew Peacocks Secret raced in Ireland lto, goes from the front. 18s on BF 14s generally.
    Hugh

  48. Thank you to everyone who posted up in Cheltenham week. I found it very hard to find those decent priced winners but there was, as always, some good quality comment on here.

    1. I agree Martin, and thanks to Josh, Nick, Stewart, Warren and all who put so much time and effort in to last weeks posts, much appreciated.

  49. Colins bets and value.
    Almost every bet this year have beaten the price last couple of bets 9/1 to 13/2 and 5/1 to 3/1and they both lost, this is my worst start for has long i can remember, yet every bet i am getting a value price.
    Ken McKenzie kindly records all my bets and sure he will vouch for what i have said about the bets always being backed so is this value?
    I for one prefer winners.
    Colin.

    1. Well do not know what happened with Too Many Chiefs for 6 hurdle wins 4 on heavy and one on soft, never at the races today.
      Colin

  50. I guess it may had been mentioned somewhere in the 88 comments above but Hugh Taylor tipped your horse Josh. Thus the 20/1 > 9/1

  51. Good question, are horses that are backed but lose good value?
    I think not. I hear so many times that if you keep backing these types then the winners will come! I’m not sure that’s the case any more. I’ve seen plenty of markets where all prices are trimmed or all bar two or three rank outsiders. To me any price taken early doesn’t have the same value in such cases or none at all. I don’t watch markets enough to know what circumstances apply to these sort of markets or how often it happens. If it is happening a lot then my guess is that this could be why some have struggled to turn a profit in the last few months.

    1. The best measure of a horse’s chance is bsp. This is proved by any large sample of results you look at, the actual/expected at bsp is exactly 1.00.

      Thus if you can beat bsp then in the long term you cannot fail to win.

      The only question is how long is the long term.

    2. I agree with the opinions on value stated here. They are mostly saying the same thing (even Chubbers), however, value is a question before the off. After the race the question is resolved, definitively. One horse had value, the others did not.

      I think this is important. You can’t fool yourself by saying a succession of losers had value. They didn’t. Don’t think you are due a pay-off or have stored up some ‘value’ that will be realised later – you didn’t and it won’t. Backing horses that shorten in price is a generally a good sign, but it still doesn’t mean you have a winning strategy unless some actually win.

  52. The Joys of Horse Racing Punting

    I studied the Midlands Grand National until my brain hurt. I then studied the wise words of a bunch of shrewdies I trust, eg Nick Hardiman, present company on here and several other very good NH specialists. I ended up with 11, yes ELEVEN well reasoned tips in the race. Thats more than half of the runners. The two that fought out the finish weren’t fancied by any of my people. (I hate watching a close finish involving the 2 horses I most resolutely didnt back!) You have to have balls of steel to survive this game! Personally Im used to this kind of thing but today’s was a fairly extreme example.

    1. Think the weather put paid to a few there to be fair!! 6 finishers told the story! Scratch it off and move on I say! I had narrowed it down to 10 to be fair, so, you weren`t the only one..

    2. Sadly I think ‘us’ judges would struggle to back a marathon chaser who fell on last two starts and they were horror errors where guessed at fences. Ignoring those then his profile was good and was staying on in Eider and had form on heavy. I did think slower ground may help his jumping but sadly not enough to have a go.
      Christian Williams is on fire and clear that he is a very good trainer and places horses well. Given his history maybe no shock he can train stayers. That should be noted. The muddy Welsh fields clearly a good prep ground! Not impossible he becomes a venetia mark II

      1. Of all the bloody horses to win… Was convinced he’d win LTO but fell when going well, decided I was done with him and he goes and does this to me…I was on the runner up of course.

  53. I guess it may had been mentioned somewhere in the 88 comments above but Hugh Taylor tipped your horse Josh. Thus the 20/1 > 9/1

  54. Hi Josh

    I am now back home from 4 very nice days at the Festival and would like to thank all the contributors on here especially Nick and yourself and all others who helped me achieve a profitable trip even if not as much as last year
    Just to let you know my share of the Scoop 6 win was £284 and thought we had the bonus with Eclair De Beaufeu taking the lead between the last two fences but not to be
    We were also in the paddock celebrating the Triumph win of Pentland Hills (very sad for connections of Sir Eric) as one of our syndicate members is one of the 3000 strong syndicate that own him so a very enjoyable day
    Once again thanks for all the hard work you all do to try and find winners

    Regards

    Peter

    1. Hi Peter
      Pentland Hills wow Nicky Henderson was very bullish of a good run on Lambourn Trainers, decided not to have a penny on, and if that sad horrible disaster had not befallen Sir Erec, he would have had to be something special to have beaten Pentland Hills, nothing should be taken away from the winner in my eye very impressive.
      Colin.

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