Festival DAY 4: Main Post (complete)

‘through the card’ ALL TIPS x11, write ups, stats/trends

1.TIPS: Summary

2.Intro/re cap

3.Micro Systems/Angles: Qualifiers

4.TIPS: Race Previews (inc shortlists)

5.Any Other Thoughts

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1.TIPS: Summary (COMPLETE) 

PLEASE REMEMBER… to REFRESH THE PAGE... to check the Section 1 heading above and the brackets next to Tips: Summary… until you read (COMPLETE) in those brackets, there is the possibility of more tips, with a 10.30 am cut off on the day of racing. If you want to make sure , then check in after 10.30 am on the day if you can, before race 1. 

 

PLEASE READ THE BELOW CAREFULLY. 

There are 11 tips in total, including a morning addition to the 2.10. 12 point outlay… it’s an all or nothing approach but we have to wait another year after today so best give it a good go…

 

2.10 

#1 Mr Adjudicator- 2 point win – 12/1 (gen)

#2 Pingshou – 1 point win – 33/1 (gen)

#11 Countister – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365/BV/Coral/Boyle) 14s (others)

 

2.50

#3 First Approach – 1 point win – 40/1 (gen) 50.00 (betfexch)

#4 Salscretta – 1 point win – 25/1 (betfS/PP) 20/1 (gen) (28.00 betfexch)

 

 

4.50 

#5 Bun Doran – 1 point win – 16/1 (uniB/Boyle) 14/1 (gen)

#6 Brelan D’As – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)

 

5.30

#8 Getareason – 1 point win – 16/1 (betfS/PP) 14/1 (gen) 18.00 Betfexch

#9 Style De Garde – 1 point win – 33/1 (betfS/BV/PP/WH/Boyle) 28/1 (others)

#10 Coolanly – 1 point win – 33/1 (gen)

 

Other

#7 Caid Du Berlais – 1 point win – 8/1 (Skyb/Lad/Coral/Boyle) 15/2 (others)

 

That’s all for Friday, ALL tips now posted, there will be no more. 07.43. Some thoughts on other races to follow in section 4. 

 

2.Intro/re cap

running total: 2/24, 7p, -1 point (2/11 races) 

Well a fabulous day’s racing with stories aplenty.

Sadly I couldn’t add any winners to proceedings in what was a poor day. A few placed efforts and enough hitting the board but I won’t spend much time here looking back in a mood of anguish as there’s one more day to go and the Midland’s National and plenty of winners to be found. The only glimmer of fun was mentioning the combo tricast in the 4.10 which paid 90/1, and a couple of short enough winners in the ‘through the card’ notes. The winner of the last race summed up my day, but that’s my fault and you’re in your right to throw rotten fruit at me for that one. I should have put him up at 10s last night but alas had a break, missed the price, and the rest is history. Still, it could be worse, and there’s much to play for.  The stats/trends shortlists are generally doing their job, and with any luck the stars will align on Friday! 🙂 

 

 

3.Micro Systems/Angles: Qualifiers

2.10 

Capitaine (m6, m10)

Countister (m3)

Crooks Peak (m6)

Due Reward (m2)

Mitchouka (m2/m9/m8)

Mohayayed (m8)

Mr Adjudicator (m9, m8)

Pingshou (m9)

We Have A Dream (m6)

Whiskey Sour (m8)

2.50 

Darlac (m4)

4.50 

All Set To Go (m3)

Brelan Das (m6)

Bun Doran (m3)

Caid Du Lin (m6)

Magic Saint (m6)

Minds Eye (m2)

Not Another Muddle (m6)

Whatswrongwithyou (m6)

5.30 

Acapella Bourgeois (m8)

Big Time Dancer (m6)

Cartwright (m1)

Dallas Des Pictons (m1/m6)

Daybreak Boy (m6)

Doctor Dex (m6)

Early Doors (m2)

Pym (m6)

 

 

4.TIPS: Race Previews (inc shortlists)

Oh well, this is the day! I’m buzzing, which is probably down to the litre of coffee i’ve just had. This is going to be one of the greatest day’s at the Festival i’ve ever had… or one of the worst! But, i’m bullish. The top of the market has dominated for the last day and a half, and if it does so again today, esp in the handicaps, clearly i’ll be relying on another 25/1 winner of the Midland’s National to pull me out of a hole. With any luck there is one monster priced winner below which will make it a good week. There hasn’t been any rain yet so the track should be good to soft. I don’t think it’s a day for the sloggers – what i’d call no excuses jumping ground.  Let’s crack on…

 

2.10 

#1 Mr Adjudicator- 2 point win – 12/1 (gen)

#2 Pingshou – 1 point win – 33/1 (gen)

#11 Countister – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365/BV/Coral/Boyle) 14s (others)

 

Mr Adjudicator – i’ve burdened the poor sod with 2 points here such is my confidence in a 26 runner handicap hurdle! I thought that if I am right about this horse, he has stacks in hand and could win this well. So, I thought i’d back that view up. He has the sort of profile from Mullins that I like in handicap hurdles… he’s lightly raced over timber and yet to finish out of the first two. Two starts back last April he got within 2L of his stablemate  – Saldier. He, Saldier and Espoir D’Allen (CHAMPION HURDLE winner!) ran at Naas in November. Saldier may have won that but for falling at the last and clearly the winner has improved all season, going into this Festival off a mark in the low 160s. This horses best hurdle run came in a big field maiden hurdle and given how he travels and gallops, I think he will relish this test – the pace, the climb to the line and his flat speed could be important in the final 3f, and for tactical positioning. Townend has always ridden him so there is nothing in the jockey bookings. Mullins has won this race before, (winning most trainer last decade with 4 wins) he’s done it with highly rated horses and with those after a break. The horse has won after this length of absence before and I can only think they have kept him back for this. Solid. A Graded horse in a handicap, he will prove better than 149 at some stage. (today!)

Pingshou – clearly a poke but with no rain overnight I don’t think he has an excuse ground wise. He may want proper spring ground but at this price I can afford to take a chance. After a quiet week last year Tizzard came to life on the Friday and Lostintranslation ran well enough yesterday to suggest he may do so again. As with the selection above, this horse is a G1 winner over hurdles, the only two in the field. He has class and he’s much better than 142. That Aintree win was impressive as was his run at Punchestown in April 2017 in their Champion Novice hurdle. He was 3 1/2 lengths behind Melon (rated 165, 2nd in the Champion Hurdle)  there, and the winner Cilaos Emery hit a mark of 153. It was also a slowly run race/dominated by the front two.  He had an issue after that, off for 572 days. They tried him over fences twice before abandoning that plan. He returned to hurdles LTO at Haydock where he didn’t run that well, but it was in Jan – and in this season of all seasons I can forgive any horse a poor run in that month what with flu jabs etc. He ticks the trends profile below…and he’s doing a few things different – Tizzard has reached for the Tongue Tie and Blinkers – he’s clearly here to run his race, as they want that equipment to spark him into life. It may not work of course, but if it does, and he runs his race – he’s no 33/1 shot against this lot. It’s time for Tizzard and Robbie to have a winner.

Countister – added this morning I was just waiting on the weather as wasn’t sure she’d want a proper slog, especially given it’s her first run in 365 days. Now, this one really could be anything and Henderson’s quote in the RP suggests she has been aimed at this. She WILL be much better than this mark. It maybe a case she shows it at Aintree say, but I think she could be a 150s horse in the making. 3 starts back at Donny she hacked up hard held in a C3 novice, making horses now in the 140s look like trees. She was a lucky winner NTO where the slow pace and soft ground didn’t help, benefiting from a late faller but she’d have been second. She ran in the G2 Mares race here last year, again the soft finding her out up the hill. She’s clearly had problems but Henderson knows what it takes to win this race and he’s trained a 4L 4th in this race before with one returning after 300+ days off. He trained My Tent Or Yours if my memory is correct to place in the Champion off a similar break, and Mullins won this with one returning 400+ days off two years back. It’s not impossible and 16s just deserved the play. I thought it interesting that she’s JPs only runner in this and he’s – 0/20,5p in the last decade, so due a winner. BG is riding at the top of his game again- I thought he may be on the downgrade but both of his winning rides yesterday were out of the very top draw. She will appreciate what should be a relentless gallop here and could approach the last on the bit, hard held, before sprinting away.

Eclair De beaufeu is a danger here and he was on my shortlist. I wasn’t sure he was well handicapped, and I thought something may have more in hand. I could be wrong on that but with these Irish Cappers i like to see some graded form and he’s ‘just’ got maiden/handicap form – I thought LTO may have been as good as he is, but he could improve again, so I won’t be surprised if he goes well.

I should mention Mitchouka – I mean I don’t need any more bets today but he will get £2-£5 BFSP, ‘just in case’ – Davy hasn’t ridden a winner here yet this week! He ticks a few of my micros. I mean I think he just looks a bit crap/out of form, so expect very little, but it’s the Festival, and it’s Elliot/Russell in a handicap at 40s+.

I DO NOT like the other British challengers one bit, and didn’t think anything looked well handicapped – i’m prepared to be very wrong on that.

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2.50

#3 First Approach – 1 point win – 40/1 (gen) 50.00 (betfexch)

#4 Salscretta – 1 point win – 25/1 (betfS/PP) 20/1 (gen) (28.00 betfexch)

I’ve kept this simple! Last year my 10 10/10 stats pointed to 2 horses, both 50/1, and we know the rest. I also found the 50/1 winner of this in 2014 and…

First Approach… like that 2014 winner, Very Wood, this one is trained by Noel Meade and has a similar profile to him. He has a decent level of form and was running on over 2m6f LTO – he finished best of the rest and was 3rd with Commander of Fleet winning. I’m not sure why the disparity in price – the front two there looked out on their feet come the line to my eyes – I think this one is going to relish this trip, and the pace. I can dream anyway, but he hit the stats, the yard are in superb form, you can make a case and he was 40s, 50.00 on the machine.

Salscreeta … she also hits all the stats, Mullins trained the winner of this last year and she looks like a stayer. She UR LTO when unsighted but that may be a blessing here. That win at Limerick over 20f in soft/heavy screamed ‘stayer’ . She’s battle hardened enough with a few runs in France and I thought she was a lively outsider here. Mr Blobby, ‘I like a bit of Libor, and my firm has just stitched up punters’, could do with a winner to lift his mood!

It may be wise to have something on the other two 10/10 qualifiers but I didn’t think Dorrell’s P would stay – or didn’t look like a stayer, and Commander of Fleet is a single figure price. But, this is the hardest race of the year for Novices and it will find out plenty. A bet on the machine on Dorrell’s P just in case may be called for. That would be an annoying one but I wasn’t tipping 3 in this.

What with Nick’s pick, that’s 3 juicy outsiders in this, and can you imagine the scenes if one of them wins! We can dream. Fingers crossed.

I do like Lisnagar Oscar but he’s short enough and doesn’t appear on my stats. But he could run a nice race.

 

4.50 

#5 Bun Doran – 1 point win – 16/1 (uniB/Boyle) 14/1 (gen)

#6 Brelan D’As – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)

 

Now i’ve yet to win this race but i’m fairly confident, with luck in running and decent jumping, that these two will cruise into contention approaching the last. We shall see what happens up the hill!

Bun Doran – he hits my trends profile and i’ve stuck with two horses here who have course form. In this frenetic race – they always go hard and there are a few front runners today -I think that’s important, as is the ability to travel – and boy can this horse travel, and jump (usually!) He’s a better horse this season, for a ‘summer at grass’ (cliche bingo again!) and he returned here on the Old Course in November and hacked up, like a very nice chaser in the making. 5 subsequent winners have come out of that so he wasn’t beating trees. LTO he returned within 30 days, and ran well. However he’s now 0/5 when making such a quick return and his profile suggests he’s much the best when running fresh. I think that beat him rather than his handicap mark, and clearly this has been the plan – you can’t say that about a few in here, i think some connections just want a day out! Provided he gets round I think he will run a cracker and the ground has come right for him.

Brelan D’As.. well this horse is much better than 136 for me and one day he will show it. I’ve had him on my radar since his Newbury 2nd 4 starts back where he ran well, in a race won by a progressive stablemate. Next time at Haydock he beat Whatswrongwithyou – and i’m entitled to ask that of the traders here – how is that one shorter than the selection? He also has no experience of this track or form in a decent field size. His next run at Cheltenham was very eye-catching – he tanked through that race and swung into it as they headed for the second last – in the race won by Siruh Du Lac/Janika 2nd (form franked!) – before tiring. He didn’t stay but in any case he does seem to go much better for Bryony, and that’s not the only chaser you can say that about. He had a confidence boosting spin around Fakenham where he won, and such is the tight/speedy nature of that track it probably sharpened him up. The horse he beat there has since won at Sandown and he’s a decent one in the making. He will relish this gallop, able to settle off it, pop away and storm home after the last. I do have a niggle about whether his jumping will hold but at 14s i’ll trust Bryony to get him into a rhythm and keep him out of trouble.

I didn’t like anything else in this. I can see the case for Nick’s selection, and have backed all his as always, the visor may work wonders, his a nice profile for his age, and the ground has come right I think. I didn’t like anything else in this.

Magic Saint is a talking horse and just doesn’t have enough experience, and no run here. That makes 5/1 very short. If he’s a Grade 1 horse already at this stage and handles it, and bolts up, then fair enough. I can also leave Not Another Muddle given he’s never run here either and this will be a completely different test. I’d want course form for one at those odds. If he handles it, clearly he’s progressive and would go close.

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5.30

#8 Getareason – 1 point win – 16/1 (betfS/PP) 14/1 (gen) 18.00 Betfexch

#9 Style De Garde – 1 point win – 33/1 (betfS/BV/PP/WH/Boyle) 28/1 (others)

#10 Coolanly – 1 point win – 33/1 (gen)

 

Getareason – well… this one makes handicap hurdle debut… Mullins has won this race 3 times (3/10,5p), and guess what they all had in common- yep, handicap hurdle debutants. The dream is alive! Maybe it will transpire that he should have been the 2 pointer, ahem. He ticks my stats profile below and is at the right end of the handicap historically. He’s been running in some decent graded races, with his wins coming in big field maidens – so, he may appreciate conditions here and the pace the go at. Some of his form looks very tasty – at Galway in August, he was 3l behind CITY ISLAND (who was subsequently demoted) – I mean that form reads well now and he’s been in and around Sam’s Profile who ran 5th in the Ballymore, and of course Battle over Doyen (albeit he PU in that, something amiss). In any case, i’ve no doubt in my mind that 140 will look lenient at some stage. Mullins only runs two in this which I like, and this jockey would have had the choice I think, 1/4 for Mullins with R Doyle having never ridden for him. Big chance to my eyes.

Style De Garde – I’ll dream of one of these two 33/1 pokes doing the business and I’m excited – as I think they are both going to run stormers here. This one is 10/10 on my stats profile and is 33/1. As such I was looking for reasons not to back him, rather than for reasons for why I should. He came second in last year’s Fred Winter, arguably the best run of his life – and I think that’s because he got a strong pace to settle off. This one is a keen bugger but he’s been running in small field races where a) he hasn’t settled and b) he’s lacked a change of gear late on. He’s been running as if he’s crying out for a test like this now and he’s related to stayers. He arrives fit and in form. I have a fear that there may not be much pace in this, we shall see. That won’t help this one or the next.. but IF he settles, he could give Henderson another winner in this. Ned Curtis has ridden in the race twice, with a 5th and a 6th, both of those were running on, suggesting he knows how to ride this hurdles course – he’s a better jockey now and with any luck doesn’t leave it too late!

Coolanly – I’m in shock that this one is 33/1. I simply do not understand. It’s a x2 price over-reaction to his last run. He should be 12s/14s in here given the level of his form. On paper he’s the best of the Brits by some way I think. This could be a 150s horse in a handicap. 3 starts back he stuffed Pym here in a Grade 2, hacking up – Pym was 16s in this. Odd. Now, his next two starts, where he’s had excuses…  in that Grade 2 win he was held up, settled and cruised into it. Two starts back there was no pace in the race and he made all- he was lit up there and couldn’t quicken – but he did bump into Champ (2nd in the Ballymore) and Brewin Upastorm, (4th in the Ballymore). On his last start he returned after 54 days (prob had all the jabs/down time etc) and again they made the running – he ran with the choke out the whole way, and it was probably remarkable for him to finish as close as he did. He’s got plenty of class and like Getareason makes handicap debut here – 5/10 winners were doing such a thing. His course form is a plus and I just pray that they ride him off the pace, as that suits him best. If they bomb forward and he’s lit up they are idiots. Surely they wont.

Of the rest… well Dallas Des Pictons may hack up, and I fear he may dawdle on the front end a bit like last year’s winner – given he stays further, if he’s ahead approaching the last that will be game over. But, he is 7/2, in a 24 runner handicap, so I have to take him on. Surely not another handicap shorty going in!

I like Defi Bleu , he was high up on my shortlist, but was 36 L behind Getareason LTO – I was struggling to work out why he’d be ahead of him here, unless that just wasn’t his running. Donna Meyler would have had the choice. 

I couldn’t have the rest – i’m pleased Nick has gone for Not That Fuisse as he was high up on my list. I concluded that I didn’t think he’d quite get home/would be out-stayed by something. He over-raced LTO and can’t afford to do that here and there was some pace on that day – but if he settles he’s a chance and I can certainly see him placing – and if they have a chance of placing, they have a chance of winning. I may have got him wrong.

Clearly we want Coolanly to win, but i’d hope between the 4 picks we have this race sewn up!! (you have to be confident!)

 

Other

#7 Caid Du Berlais – 1 point win – 8/1 (Skyb/Lad/Coral/Boyle) 15/2 (others)

This one is smart and ran a fine 5th in this last year on softer ground than ideal- well soft is fine but he only just gets this trip I think – well the last 2f are a niggle – but if he’s going to stay, it will be on today’s better ground. I hope they ride him further forward than last year as he was given a lot to do and made a couple of errors. He bolted up in a point recently and is trained by one of Nicholls’ work riders – she uses his facilities etc, and it’s not a bad team to bounce ideas off and to help you with prepping a horse! I thought 8s was fair.

 

I think that’s it, apols for any typos, I’ve ran out of energy to proof read! Getting up at 6 isn’t natural for me! 🙂 

Have a great day and best of luck. 

 

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The Handicaps

2.10 County Hurdle

0-3 runs 90 days / 21< runs / 11< hncp runs / 1-5 career wins / 0-2 hncp wins / 0-3 places (inc wins) hncp h… leaves 10/123,22p … leaves 8

Chitibello (10/13), Cross Peak (12/13), Mr Adjudicator (12/13), Countister (10/13), Cut The Mustard (10/13), Due Reward (13/13), Lisp (12/13), Pingshou (10/13)

The other 7 stats as a guide, making up 13 in total… C1/2 LTO (for UK runners only.. Cross Peak falls down on that), 9th or lower in the weights, won at least once last 4, jockey ridden horse previously (all tick that), Age 5 or 6 , NOT age 7 Countister/Cut The Mustard are 7), Not 0 runs in handicaps.

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4.50 Grand Annual

9 or younger, had run G1/2 level, 4-8 runs prev 365 days, ran 26+ days ago… leaves 10/79, 19p

Le Prezien / Minds Eye/ Bun Doran / Marracudja / Forest Bihan 

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5.30 Martin Pipe

7 or younger, Moving in class , 0-1 run at track, ran 21-60 days ago.. leaves 10/77, 22p… leaves 10..

Dallas Des Picton (10/10), Cartwright (5/10), Pym (9/10), Defi Bleu (10/10), Discordantly (8/10), Getareason (9/10), Doctor Dex (9/10), Style De Garde (10/10), If You Say Run (8/9) , Champagne Court (9/10) 

The other 6 stats I’ve used as a guide, making 10 in total, 7/1 or shorter LTO, 0-2 wins LH, 8< hurdle runs, 0-2 hurdle wins, Top 9 in the weights (8/34 within the profile), 1-2 wins this season

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2.50 Albert Bartlett

There are 4 horses who hit the 10 10/10 stats which served us well last year…

Commander of Fleet / Dorrells Pierji / Salscretta / First Approach. 

Honourable mentions for… Bichdale / Derrinriss / Rhinestone / Cap York

 

 

5.Any Other Thoughts

 

‘Through The Card’

well annoyingly these have been doing rather well! Clearly with hindsight I should have tipped more of the buggers. Never mind, hopefully some of you have had change on, winners mentioned (underlined!) at 6/1, 10/1, 7/2, 15/2, and 7/4 (and  few losers to boot) anyway…

1.30 

All about the talking horse in this , Sir Erec – The clock, his profile, the talk, all suggests he’s the Irish banker of the week (even more so than Tiger Roll!) But, I can sit and just watch at that price…

Pic D’orhy EW 10/1 – maybe it isn’t soft enough but this one is second in on official ratings, trained by Nichools, 10s. That will do for small interest as will…

Pentland Hills – EW – no idea on this one, he was just mentioned a few times on the preview circuits by ‘judges’ – so, that will do!! Surely i haven’t inadvertently mentioned a forecast/tricast with the fav… hmmm… 🙂 (you never know!)

 

3.30 – The Gold Cup

Well bar the year Coneygree won this isn’t a race I often attack with much vigour and I haven’t done so again this year. I only really backed him that year because I do like a front runner over fences on this New Course especially. Idiotically I didn’t lump on Native River last year when the ground came in his favour…

Clans Des Obeaux – dues to the lack of proper soft ground (officially at least) – he would be my pick of the three at the top of the market. I mean he’s ultra progressive and hasn’t done much wrong, and has run well here in the past, over too short a trip and when inexperienced. He’s become a man this season and his last two wins have been impressive. 5/1 for this season’s King George winner. I’ll play that for interest.

Elegant Escape – EW or Place – I mean he will sit far back I imagine, potter away, and stay on up the hill. The race may be long gone by then but equally he has guts and stamina and is in decent form – I mean Frodon franked his last run. He will relish every yard of this trip/the pace. Maybe the play is to back him for the Grand National now! As if he gets anywhere near to the places, his price can only shorten and he may give Tiger Roll something to think about.

Of the rest… I’d love to see Native River win but I fear on this ground he may not be able to get away from them, or I should say it may favour the closers more. I could be horribly wrong and he just demolishes them. I don’t have strong views either way.

I don’t like Presenting Percy’s prep and can’t touch him at his price. Clearly I won’t fall off my seat if he wins, and just may the trainer will be happy to be interviewed after that. People’s horse my arse. (to coin a phrase of sorts from tony Keenan)

I may not have mentioned the winner but those two above would be it for me.

If ever there is a race to take your own view and go with it, it’s this.

Best of luck and have a great day, I’m off to a pub for the afternoon.

Saturday’s normal daily members’ post is highly likely to be up Sat morning. I still need to do the trends for The Midland’s National, and Blessed To Empress runs in the 5.40 Wolvs, so I’ll be training down to see her run I think!

I’ve everything crossed for a very good day, I couldn’t have done anymore when attacking today’s card, so it won’t be for the lack of effort. If nothing else the sodding write ups deserve a winner! 🙂

Onwards, to Friday Festival Glory!

Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

83 Responses

  1. Hi Josh

    As always thanks for all the hard work you put into this week along with Nick it’s a good week so far back to the racecourse tomorrow for day 4 of the annual trip
    Did you invest in the Scoop 6 Syndicate for the festival as it has won £16,500 plus a chance at the bonus tomorrow
    Could end up being an extremely good week
    Regards

    Peter

  2. Hi Josh
    I wish !!!! No that’s what the company has won I paid the £120 for the 4 days and they said they will work out individual share after the bonus race and tomorrow’s Scoop 6 in case we win again don’t no how many are in the syndicate but will let you know how much I get
    Thanks I will enjoy tomorrow anyway whatever happens and yes we have Midlands National on Sat
    Regards

    Peter

  3. Lovely to keep the run going. Tomorrow is trickier without any obviously “safe” bets but I found a few which look very big:

    Eclair De Beaufeu Cheltenham 14:10 1pt e/w 11/1
    Rockpoint Cheltenham 14:50 1pt e/w 33/1
    Diakali Cheltenham 16:50 1pt e/w 33/1
    Coolanly Cheltenham 17:30 1pt e/w 33/1
    Not That Fuisse Cheltenham 17:30 1pt e/w 25/1

    1. Well done on tipping this week Nick.
      Any thoughts on Triumph Hurdle, I’ve had no luck in the first
      Races this week but been using Sky’s offer
      Thanks
      Peter

  4. No write ups sorry, absolutely drained form this week, need to just enjoy tomorrow, rather than putting up reasoning. I doff my cap to you Josh, doing this is full time…so, from start to finish here we go.
    14:10
    MONSIEUR LE COQ 12/1 1pt win
    ECLAIR DE BEAUFEU 12/1 1pt win

    14:50
    ALLAHO 8/1 1pt win gen
    AYE AYE CHARLIE 1/2 pt e/w

    15:30
    KEMBOY 11/1 2pt win
    ELEGANT ESCAPE 16/1 1 pt e/w

    16:10
    UCELLO CONTI 1pt win 5/1 gen
    HAZEL HILL 1pt win 6/1 gen

    16:50
    WHATSWRONGWITHYOU 9/1 gen 1pt win
    LE PREZIEN 11/1 gen 1pt win

    17:30
    EARLY DOORS 6/1 gen 2pt win
    DEFI BLEU 12/1 gen 1pt win

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with all your selectons today/tomorrow.

    1. Looks like everyone abandoned me, can`t blame them, but, two winners on last day i will take, as one of them was my banker of the week……EARLY DOORS did the business, but, as I`m not the main fella!! haha, 🙂

  5. Hi Josh

    You have complete in the brackets now, I think it needs removing, a bit unlucky today but heads up and go again tomorrow. Best of luck!

    Steve

    1. Ah yes thanks, just copied that over from yesterday! Oh my head is up don’t you worry. A bit of clouded thinking – well mainly annoyed at Frodon as could have landed on him, but can live with the rest. Maybe on another day I back the Plate winner – but if Harry S has a far more prominent possy through that he goes a hell of a lot closer, and the winner of the last is just bad luck / idiocy on my part. I read the race well enough just missed the sodding price. One of those. Been a frustrating week but plenty of time to drag us into profit – and well at least long term followers of Nick, me included, are having a good week! 🙂

      1. As mentioned before Josh, even reading your explanation of why you fancied then rejected a horse is helpful as today I saved on Any Second. So it’s not just about your final tips.

        By the way, a key stat in the County is that all winners bar Arctic Fire in the last 12 years were rated in the 130s. Not sure why that stat doesn’t figure in your musings? It’s given me the last few winners bar AF. Good luck tomorrow 🙂

        1. Ah that’s a selective approach to stats haha – in the last 21 years, 2 horses have won this off 150s, and the selection could be a class above – I mean he was 11l behind the champion hurdle winner etc, but i’ll cover all that in the write up. I think those in the 140s< , bar my other poke, are a mediocre bunch and I don't think they have a hidden 10lb up their sleeve - that stat won't be included for one reason or another and ratings/OR stats only ever a guide - especially when it comes to mullins. There's been an increase in recent years of classy horses near the top of the handicap doing well in Festival handicaps- we saw that with Wicklow Brave and William Henry etc. We will see. I've no doubt got the odd one down there wrong! I'll look again at that race with morning eyes and see.

  6. Hi Josh

    As always thanks for all the hard work you put into this week along with Nick it’s a good week so far back to the racecourse tomorrow for day 4 of the annual trip
    Did you invest in the Scoop 6 Syndicate for the festival as it has won £16,500 plus a chance at the bonus tomorrow
    Could end up being an extremely good week
    Regards

    Peter

    1. Good stuff Peter… as in that’s your share of Scoop6 ??? Or what they’ve got back/.. what’s your share, if you don’t mind me asking? Sadly I didn’t, in part I forgot, but also the £120 off the bat didn’t entice me in but I probably should have given it a go! Sounds like a good week.
      And thanks.. hopefully it all pays off tomorrow and in Midland’s Nat, we will see!
      Have fun tomorrow. I’m spending the day in a pub, so hopefully I can cheer something on.
      Best
      Josh

  7. Hi Josh
    I wish !!!! No that’s what the company has won I paid the £120 for the 4 days and they said they will work out individual share after the bonus race and tomorrow’s Scoop 6 in case we win again don’t no how many are in the syndicate but will let you know how much I get
    Thanks I will enjoy tomorrow anyway whatever happens and yes we have Midlands National on Sat
    Regards

    Peter

  8. Well I think people’s reaction to the Ryanair would readily distinguish between true racing fans and the Cheltenham once a year brigade. WHAT A PERFORMANCE! It just doesn’t get any better than that. The class and guts to do what he did. I’m still buzzing now and road of respect would have been better financially for me!

    And the exchange activity….crazy! After the well fancied horses went in in the first few races, aside from epatante and Posh Trish you could literally have any price you liked on the other runners. Take indefatigable for example, BFSP was 15 times the price of Posh Trish yet her form was very closely tied with that rival. You thought that was crazy, flick over to the Kim Muir and kid you not Measureofmydreams was nearly 2-1 and any second now nearly 4/1. That’s about even money on the top 2 in the market in a 24 runner handicap!! Granted the latter won but the bookies were prepared to reduce their liabilities by backing the well fancied runners down to frankly ridiculous prices. It was only when Epatante and Posh Trish got beat did the prices in the Kim Muir become a bit more sensible. Laddys Coral down £4.5m today apparently.

    Poor week on the system front. Hopefully people’s attention have been elsewhere.

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +66.36

    1pt win – 1.20 F – Clayton
    2pt win – 4.35 F – Primal Focus

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT +2.28

    4.50 C – Whatswrongwithyou (only if 9/1 or under BFSP)

    P.S. well done to Nick and Colin for the last couple of days and Josh for the first couple. Josh – I hope Liverpool win the champions league now or we will all be appealing for a 10 point deduction from next season’s subs, which means a free membership for me

    1. Forgot to add my smiley. Need chubnuts help on that one.

      Thanks for the charity update Josh, need to salvage something after Jadey bombed out. Well done on PP. Stuart mentioned backing him in-running, hope you got on mate. Top IR price was only 3.9, punters seemingly wise to the “flat spot”!

      1. i was at the festival yesterday and the average punter was piling on the favourites like I had never seen. You may not have heard the roars on TV but Defi and Paisley Park coming up the hill was deafening. However some favourites went very short and were terrible value. Bryony and Lizzie Kelly also had a good deal of followers.
        So, obviously, get on early today as SP’s are no value.

        Good luck.

      2. I layed Paisley at 2.5 pre race and had a back in running at 4.0 I kid you not … as they say FFS!!!! Lol.

  9. Lovely to keep the run going. Tomorrow is trickier without any obviously “safe” bets but I found a few which look very big:

    Eclair De Beaufeu Cheltenham 14:10 1pt e/w 11/1
    Rockpoint Cheltenham 14:50 1pt e/w 33/1
    Diakali Cheltenham 16:50 1pt e/w 33/1
    Coolanly Cheltenham 17:30 1pt e/w 33/1
    Not That Fuisse Cheltenham 17:30 1pt e/w 25/1

    1. Well done on tipping this week Nick.
      Any thoughts on Triumph Hurdle, I’ve had no luck in the first
      Races this week but been using Sky’s offer
      Thanks
      Peter

      1. I haven’t the foggiest. If you’re going e/w I would say Babylon Gardens given they have Quel Distin at half the price as everyone else. Personally I have just been using them as a freebet and going win only so decided to take a total punt on the Mullins second string (French Made). Just a clear point in case anyone has missed it but BOG does not apply on the race with Sky.

        1. I have been going well on the money back in the 1.30 £20 finding 2 out of 3 so far. I have had a go on Quel Destin today.

  10. No write ups sorry, absolutely drained form this week, need to just enjoy tomorrow, rather than putting up reasoning. I doff my cap to you Josh, doing this is full time…so, from start to finish here we go.
    14:10
    MONSIEUR LE COQ 12/1 1pt win
    ECLAIR DE BEAUFEU 12/1 1pt win

    14:50
    ALLAHO 8/1 1pt win gen
    AYE AYE CHARLIE 1/2 pt e/w

    15:30
    KEMBOY 11/1 2pt win
    ELEGANT ESCAPE 16/1 1 pt e/w

    16:10
    UCELLO CONTI 1pt win 5/1 gen
    HAZEL HILL 1pt win 6/1 gen

    16:50
    WHATSWRONGWITHYOU 9/1 gen 1pt win
    LE PREZIEN 11/1 gen 1pt win

    17:30
    EARLY DOORS 6/1 gen 2pt win
    DEFI BLEU 12/1 gen 1pt win

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with all your selectons today/tomorrow.

    1. Looks like everyone abandoned me, can`t blame them, but, two winners on last day i will take, as one of them was my banker of the week……EARLY DOORS did the business, but, as I`m not the main fella!! haha, 🙂

        1. Thanks Nick, shrapnel on yours too, but, made the week special, especially Bryony and Frodon, was well worth the wait for that one!!

  11. 3 good days so far, let’s hope we can round a brilliant week off in style. Defi Du Seuil Frodon, Sire Du Berlais and a front running master class from Siruh Du Lac were good moments yesterday but nothing will top a fortuitous win in the 4:50. 2 months ago I went to oddchecker to place a bet on Defi Du Seuil to win any race at the festival. He was abouts a 10s shot. In my haste, I used Ctrl + F to locate “Du Seuil”, in the betting and put a tenner on with Hills. I text my mate saying they’d priced up at 20s and he should get on. He couldnt get the 20s and text back telling me to check my bet, I subsequently found that I’d backed Eglantine Du Seuil for any race. No worries, top up on Defi and put it down to laziness. Fast forward a couple of months and she rocks up in the mares @ 66s. I thought to myself, there’s no way I can have money on at 20s and not have more on at 66s, so I duly topped up yesterday prior to the off and watching her finish up that hill gave me the biggest priced winner I’ve ever backed, without a single piece of form reading and a huge stroke of luck.

    Sometimes racing does have it’s good luck stories and that one definitely brought a smile to my face.

  12. gone for my long shots in tipping competition(i have backed them all to small ew stakes) so thought i would post my main bets here.
    1-30. Sir Eric sky £20 x 2, i still have one more shot and was going to do Quel Destin not sure yet
    2-10. Mr Adjudicator
    2-50. Lisnagar Oscar
    3-30. Bellshill
    4-10. Caid Du Berlais
    4-50. Not Another Muddle
    5-30. haven’t a clue, i’ve backed Nick’s 2 and might leave it at that

  13. 3 good days so far, let’s hope we can round a brilliant week off in style. Defi Du Seuil Frodon, Sire Du Berlais and a front running master class from Siruh Du Lac were good moments yesterday but nothing will top a fortuitous win in the 4:50. 2 months ago I went to oddchecker to place a bet on Defi Du Seuil to win any race at the festival. He was abouts a 10s shot. In my haste, I used Ctrl + F to locate “Du Seuil”, in the betting and put a tenner on with Hills. I text my mate saying they’d priced up at 20s and he should get on. He couldnt get the 20s and text back telling me to check my bet, I subsequently found that I’d backed Eglantine Du Seuil for any race. No worries, top up on Defi and put it down to laziness. Fast forward a couple of months and she rocks up in the mares @ 66s. I thought to myself, there’s no way I can have money on at 20s and not have more on at 66s, so I duly topped up yesterday prior to the off and watching her finish up that hill gave me the biggest priced winner I’ve ever backed, without a single piece of form reading and a huge stroke of luck.

    Sometimes racing does have it’s good luck stories and that one definitely brought a smile to my face.

    1. Top stuff Lee, I mean that was probably the only way she was being found haha. Great result. Just shows you the impact of pace/those big fields, unlocking ability in horses as yet seen – however on reflection her form was decent, and of course Mullins likes winning the race – maybe the case that when there is no Mullins superstar in that, to just have some shrapnel on his outsiders. We will have to remember that for future years! You can’t beat backing a winner at those prices, doesnt get much better.

      1. I did look retrospectively at her and was priced according the the PU last time and the break between races. As we all know Mullins can ready one, especially mares (Quevega, BDD, AP) for a festival target. So it is not at all a bad option. I’m quite keen on the mullins filly in the Albert Bartlett, no Mare has ever won but the form of the defeat of Felix Desjy looks pretty decent in view of his 5th in the supreme and again, she is priced on the most recent PU, rather than that form. Whether or not she is good enough remains to be seen, but there is clear logic there and definitely represents value in that race

  14. gone for my long shots in tipping competition(i have backed them all to small ew stakes) so thought i would post my main bets here.
    1-30. Sir Eric sky £20 x 2, i still have one more shot and was going to do Quel Destin not sure yet
    2-10. Mr Adjudicator
    2-50. Lisnagar Oscar
    3-30. Bellshill
    4-10. Caid Du Berlais
    4-50. Not Another Muddle
    5-30. haven’t a clue, i’ve backed Nick’s 2 and might leave it at that

    1. done Josh’s in 5-30 as well (ew) so i’ll be cheering on Coolanly as i would win more than my starting bank for the week 🙂

      1. sky going 9-2 Quel Destin 10-1 most other places and with no bog i’m going to go silly and put the £20 on French Made @33’s

  15. Small profit yesterday of 5pts mainly due to backing selectively Josh’s tips each way : namely Spirit of the Games, Didero Vallis, Young Master, Eamon An Croic…Defi U Seuil won along with Paisley Park and, of course, Frodon with Aso also placing…cannot fully understand why e/w is not on option Josh but respect your win only stance..personally without selections from your stats and your tips placing, their would have been no profit so thanks again Josh for all the hard work. On to the final day:

    13.30. Sir Erec looks the likely winner though 10/11 not for me; one at a better price to place is Pic D’orhy or back without the fav.
    14.10. A hdcp hurdle….just dandy! Anway being the last day, even though I hate these races, giving it a go…Nicks’ pick Eclair De Beaufeu looks a solid chance. One at 40/1 is Mitchouka…ridden by a 7lb claimer LTO has Davy Russell up this time so in a race that can produce big priced winners worth a shot at that price. Others are Monsieur Le Coq,Thistle Do Nicely and Josh’s pick Mr Adjudicator (too high in the weights for me but that may prove to be wrong). Gd lck.
    14.50. Birchdale and Lisnagar Oscar look the likely winners.
    15.30. Kemboy, Clans Des Obeaux.
    16.10. Cousin Pete, Hazel Hill, Shantou Flyer, Topwood.
    16.50. Whatswrongwithyou, Le Prezien.(agreeing with Stewart so apologies to you Stewart if I have jinxed them) Looked at Not Another Muddle but horses that have won a hdcp chase do not have a gd record(ATR info) so was excluded.
    17.30. Final race is a hdcp hurdle so here goes: Dallas Des Picton…10/10 on Josh’s stats and is top on my criteria for making selections so has to be the pick..others are Early Doors, Defi Blue (Josh’s stats 10/10) Get A Reason (9/10 Josh’s stats)…final criteria was to look at horses dropping in trip and the selections fitted that criteria. Well hopefully a few will win and place for a profit. Good luck with whatever you back.

  16. Hi excitement here at alpha2 Towers with my 50/1 antepost on Clans Des Obeaux struck just after the Betfair finally reaching fruition. It’s been a tough week I somehow missed Nick’s great winner yesterday despite backing the others but Frodon has meant I am marginally ahead so it all rests on CdO. Also my leg in Swaffham Bulbeck will be shuffling around Fakenham in the 2.35. Only 4 runners, two on debut, could this be the day?
    Today’s selection Clan Des Obeaux!
    Hugh

  17. Its probably a little late to count it in official figures but with the rain coming I would have something on Lisp in the County. Personally I am having my usual 1pt e/w stake.

  18. Small profit yesterday of 5pts mainly due to backing selectively Josh’s tips each way : namely Spirit of the Games, Didero Vallis, Young Master, Eamon An Croic…Defi U Seuil won along with Paisley Park and, of course, Frodon with Aso also placing…cannot fully understand why e/w is not on option Josh but respect your win only stance..personally without selections from your stats and your tips placing, their would have been no profit so thanks again Josh for all the hard work. On to the final day:

    13.30. Sir Erec looks the likely winner though 10/11 not for me; one at a better price to place is Pic D’orhy or back without the fav.
    14.10. A hdcp hurdle….just dandy! Anway being the last day, even though I hate these races, giving it a go…Nicks’ pick Eclair De Beaufeu looks a solid chance. One at 40/1 is Mitchouka…ridden by a 7lb claimer LTO has Davy Russell up this time so in a race that can produce big priced winners worth a shot at that price. Others are Monsieur Le Coq,Thistle Do Nicely and Josh’s pick Mr Adjudicator (too high in the weights for me but that may prove to be wrong). Gd lck.
    14.50. Birchdale and Lisnagar Oscar look the likely winners.
    15.30. Kemboy, Clans Des Obeaux.
    16.10. Cousin Pete, Hazel Hill, Shantou Flyer, Topwood.
    16.50. Whatswrongwithyou, Le Prezien.(agreeing with Stewart so apologies to you Stewart if I have jinxed them) Looked at Not Another Muddle but horses that have won a hdcp chase do not have a gd record(ATR info) so was excluded.
    17.30. Final race is a hdcp hurdle so here goes: Dallas Des Picton…10/10 on Josh’s stats and is top on my criteria for making selections so has to be the pick..others are Early Doors, Defi Blue (Josh’s stats 10/10) Get A Reason (9/10 Josh’s stats)…final criteria was to look at horses dropping in trip and the selections fitted that criteria. Well hopefully a few will win and place for a profit. Good luck with whatever you back.

  19. Hi excitement here at alpha2 Towers with my 50/1 antepost on Clans Des Obeaux struck just after the Betfair finally reaching fruition. It’s been a tough week I somehow missed Nick’s great winner yesterday despite backing the others but Frodon has meant I am marginally ahead so it all rests on CdO. Also my leg in Swaffham Bulbeck will be shuffling around Fakenham in the 2.35. Only 4 runners, two on debut, could this be the day?
    Today’s selection Clan Des Obeaux!
    Hugh

  20. Its probably a little late to count it in official figures but with the rain coming I would have something on Lisp in the County. Personally I am having my usual 1pt e/w stake.

      1. He’s not had many chances and most have ran ok. I’m pretty sure he would have been chuffed with Sceau’s 3rd in the QM. A couple have just missed out on the places at big prices.

        1. Top trainers like Alan King and top Jockeys winning is more important than places, people only remember winners not places, so Alan King has had a poor 2019 Cheltenham.
          Some top footballers give their runner up medals away for they only want to be winners, along with any top sportsman.

      1. Yeah I appreciated the irony of Eclair falling given fair chance he would have finished ahead of him.

  21. Good Lord Josh, terrible luck for your two to be beaten by a stat busting 12yo at 66s!
    You can join me bemoaning the fates.
    Hugh

  22. Well that was a disappointing week. Apols all. That’s how it goes. Probably a correction after last two years. But that’s the game. So many shorties winning Festival handicaps. I don’t know if that’s a trend with an obvious one. Onto Sat. Ahhh. -12.

  23. Not counting Lisp I finished the Festival with 3 winners and 7 places from just the 19 picks and a 138% ROI +52.35 (40.70 to 1pt win bets to BFSP) Pretty chuffed with that.

  24. A poor week unfortunately but this game isn’t easy
    I ‘ve lost money and I’m sure others have
    We try again tomorrow

  25. Good Lord Josh, terrible luck for your two to be beaten by a stat busting 12yo at 66s!
    You can join me bemoaning the fates.
    Hugh

  26. Well that was a disappointing week. Apols all. That’s how it goes. Probably a correction after last two years. But that’s the game. So many shorties winning Festival handicaps. I don’t know if that’s a trend with an obvious one. Onto Sat. Ahhh. -12.

  27. And thank you Josh …you put in a tremendous effort with all the stats and coordinating the site, it was a big enough job (tho enjoyable) just reading the posts and deciding which ones to follow…reflecting back sounds like you went to a good preview night too….Andy Holding had a good festival. Cheers, Steve

    1. Only 5 have tried from memory. Could be wrong but I did check. In that race I simply follow the stats profile. It’s found 2x 50/1 winner in the last 5 years. That’s the game. Poor week and no one is more frustrated than I am. Sadly last two years couldn’t be repeated.

  28. Not counting Lisp I finished the Festival with 3 winners and 7 places from just the 19 picks and a 138% ROI +52.35 (40.70 to 1pt win bets to BFSP) Pretty chuffed with that.

    1. Well done Nick you have had a good four days at Cheltenham, sadly not being able to back with the bookies ew is out the window, and place on exchanges not very good in my eyes been looking at place for golf and not impressed by them.
      Colin

        1. Said Place only not win are you taking a price on exchange early if there is any money in the pot maybe Cheltenham there is but normally there is none till close to the off, and so i tend to take Betfair Exchange SP, maybe have to review major meetings.

          1. Afraid not everyone cannot get BFSP, PP took over Betfair and promptly closed my account and can only back with Betfair Exchanges so it is not BFSP i am talking about it is BFSPEX

          2. Huh?? I mean I’m a tad tipsy by Nick is referring to Betfair exchange SP is he not not the sportsbook ???

          3. Yeah definitely the Betfair Exchange SP. That’s before deductions but you’re only talking about 5% less at most.

    2. Very well done Nick excellent performance in a very difficult festival brilliant many thanks for posting
      mike

  29. A poor week unfortunately but this game isn’t easy
    I ‘ve lost money and I’m sure others have
    We try again tomorrow

  30. And thank you Josh …you put in a tremendous effort with all the stats and coordinating the site, it was a big enough job (tho enjoyable) just reading the posts and deciding which ones to follow…reflecting back sounds like you went to a good preview night too….Andy Holding had a good festival. Cheers, Steve

  31. Hi Josh

    You have complete in the brackets now, I think it needs removing, a bit unlucky today but heads up and go again tomorrow. Best of luck!

    Steve

  32. Well I think people’s reaction to the Ryanair would readily distinguish between true racing fans and the Cheltenham once a year brigade. WHAT A PERFORMANCE! It just doesn’t get any better than that. The class and guts to do what he did. I’m still buzzing now and road of respect would have been better financially for me!

    And the exchange activity….crazy! After the well fancied horses went in in the first few races, aside from epatante and Posh Trish you could literally have any price you liked on the other runners. Take indefatigable for example, BFSP was 15 times the price of Posh Trish yet her form was very closely tied with that rival. You thought that was crazy, flick over to the Kim Muir and kid you not Measureofmydreams was nearly 2-1 and any second now nearly 4/1. That’s about even money on the top 2 in the market in a 24 runner handicap!! Granted the latter won but the bookies were prepared to reduce their liabilities by backing the well fancied runners down to frankly ridiculous prices. It was only when Epatante and Posh Trish got beat did the prices in the Kim Muir become a bit more sensible. Laddys Coral down £4.5m today apparently.

    Poor week on the system front. Hopefully people’s attention have been elsewhere.

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +66.36

    1pt win – 1.20 F – Clayton
    2pt win – 4.35 F – Primal Focus

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT +2.28

    4.50 C – Whatswrongwithyou (only if 9/1 or under BFSP)

    P.S. well done to Nick and Colin for the last couple of days and Josh for the first couple. Josh – I hope Liverpool win the champions league now or we will all be appealing for a 10 point deduction from next season’s subs, which means a free membership for me

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