3.Micro Systems/Angles: Qualifiers
4.TIPS: Race Previews (inc shortlists)
5.Any Other Thoughts
1.TIPS: Summary (COMPLETE)
PLEASE REMEMBER… to REFRESH THE PAGE... to check the Section 1 heading above and the brackets next to Tips: Summary… until you read (COMPLETE) in those brackets, there is the possibility of more tips, with a 10.30 am cut off on the day of racing. If you want to make sure , then check in after 10.30 am on the day if you can, before race 1. I tried to make that clear on Day 1 🙂
THAT IS IT. ALL TIPS x8 PLEASE READ BELOW CAREFULLY : POSTED. 10.00 AM.
#1 Samburu Shujaa – 1 point win – 12/1 (betfS/BV/Coral) 11/1 (others) UP
#2 Cool Cody – 1 point EW – 50/1 (1/5, SkyB/BV/BlackT/Boyle) 40/1 (others) UP
#3 Cuneo – 1 point win – 16/1 (WH/PP/Boyle) 14/1 (gen) 4th
(as of 07.47 Thursday)
#4 Janika – 1 point win – 9/2 (gen) 2nd
#5 Spiritofthegames – 1 point win – 8/1 3rd
#6 Speaker Connolly – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) (15.5 Betfx) UP
#7 The Young Master – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen) (28.00 Betfx) 3rd 22/1
Any other races
#8 Posh Trish – 1 point win – 6/1 (betfS/PP) 11/2 (gen) UP
THAT IS IT. ALL TIPS x8 (9 points) POSTED. 10.00 AM.
Running total: 2/16, 3p, +8 (2/7 races)
Ah.. a solid if unspectacular start to the meeting. It’s the big priced handicap winners that make or break my week and annoying not to land on one on Day 2, but two full days to go and it could be worse. Still, ‘Festival Week’ since start of 2017 is now +162 points and counting. Well done to regular ‘tipster’ Nick M for landing on William Henry at 33s/40s. Superb. For the non-regulars, Nick pulled in +534 points profit on here last year, which was some effort and he deserved a big winner like that after a frustrating year to date, I doubt he’s done with yet this week. A shout out to those of you who put that winner in the tipping comp – 40 of you are playing regularly, and a few of you landed on him. Well done. There’s looking like being some big totals in there come the end of the meeting. Plenty for me to reflect on re William Henry – fair to say I was blinkered with that PU LTO, but the wind op clearly worked and 33s was big simply based on his 2L defeat in the race last year, his lightly raced profile and who trains him. Damn, I did think something with more in hand would have him – however I clearly need to pay more attention to those weight stats. 8/10 had been won by those 2nd-8th in the weights, and I only had one on my side from that band. And the classy top-weight nearly won. A race for class it would seem and sadly no repeat of last year. Still, I didn’t nab the Stable Plate winner or the Pertemps winner in 2018 so I’ll look to find those this year…
All those Fred Winter horses have bumped into a graded horse, which I feared they may have as the money poured on.
I’ve two days in which to land on some biggies myself, and it won’t be for the want of trying. Onto Day 3.
The usual suspects are coming to the fore… Nicholls, Henderson, Mullins and now Elliot.
3.Micro Systems/Angles: Qualifiers
Aaron Lad (m3, 12/1< guide)
Not Many Left (m6, 12/1<)
Samburu Shujaa (m6)
Walk To Freedom (m2, 25/1<, m9 (
Azzerti (m6, 12/1<)
Siruh Du Lac (m3)
Spirit of The Games (m3, 12/1<)
Elusive Belle (m4)
Sancta Simona (m4)
Ah Littleluck (m1)
Any Second Now (m1)
Kilfilum Cross (m6, 12/1<)
Perfect Candidate (m3, 12/1< guide)
Rogue Angel (m1)
Treakle Tart (m6, 12/1<)
4.TIPS: Race Previews (inc shortlists)
#1 Samburu Shujaa – 1 point win – 12/1 (betfS/BV/Coral) 11/1 (others)
#2 Cool Cody – 1 point EW – 50/1 (1/5, SkyB/BV/BlackT/Boyle) 40/1 (others)
#3 Cuneo – 1 point win – 16/1 (WH/PP/Boyle) 14/1 (gen)
(as of 07.47 Thursday)
Samburu Shujaa… ticks all my stats pointers and Hobbs won this with Fingal Bay a few years ago, on the back of a LTO win and off top weight. This race is usually won by future staying chasers, hardy, galloping sorts and this one ticks those boxes. Conditions look fine, he jumps well and just appears to be getting better. I thought 12s was fair. I hope Dicky isn’t ultra aggressive on him but he should be prominent enough and he runs as if he’ll relish this hill. The Hobbs yard are going ok and I thought there was a lot to like about him. If he’s ahead of the last it will take a good one to get by him.
Cool Cody… I don’t want to curse him, but… part of me is going to be rather disappointed if he isn’t in the top 5 here. So, that’s 6th nailed on!! He is a silly silly price here and actually I re-ran some of the stats below, and tinkered, and he hits a stats profile for this. He’s a hardy bugger and comes here on the back of a fine run at Sandown (a race with decent ‘hot handicap form lines’) in ground far too heavy for him – it was also his first run without the hood and I think he’s finally grown up. He’s a strong traveller who has some decent course form. He will race prominent, he will jump and keep galloping. There is some rain around but his course win was in very soft and the ground should be fine. This track shouldn’t be as testing as the Old Course given it’s fresh ground but we shall see. It could be he won’t be good enough or that his last race has bottomed him out but he’s had 40 days off and I wouldn’t be shocked if this has been the plan all year, since they scrapped chasing in December. He is just twice the price he should be here, he could win, but if he placed i’d be delighted. I’m not that good at knowing when to go EW, but with 40s+ shots I have to really and I made the right call on one such horse last year.
Cuneo… the ‘morning eyes’ pick… I had him, Boyhood and NotwahatIam on my shortlist… IF the fav doesn’t win, then I think it’s between these 5. I’ve gone with him because I think he’s open to the most progress from those, will appreciate the softer ground, is in good form and is certainly a staying chaser in the making. Gigginstown won this last year and I thought it prudent to have one Irish pick onside. Those owners could do with a winner also, and they could have thrown plenty at this race I suspect. Henry De Bromhead is in form, a Festival winner already this week, and he’s only run 2 horses in this before – they were both 33/1 pokes and both ran 5th. This horse won some bumpers/novices in heavy ground, marking him out as a slogger in the making. He won on handicap debut two starts back at Leop on good/yielding. He wasn’t stopping come the line. He ran 5th LTO but I don’t think conditions suited – the ground was fast at that meeting and they didn’t go much of a pace – it turned into a sprint turning form home where he was flat footed, and I also suspect he didn’t fully put down on the ground. It could pay to be more patient here but I think these conditions could bring out plenty of improvement and he looks the best handicapped of the Irish to my eyes.
Dangers… clearly the Fav is well fancied and maybe he hacks up but he’s a 7 race maiden still and is an unproven stayer. That makes 9/2 in a race like this quite ridiculous. I’ve no doubt he’s got stacks in hand, and he may bolt up, but JP hasn’t done well with his handicap hurdlers here for a while, and nor in this race in recent years. The horse has had a longer than ideal break historically in this race and he can beat me. If he does, hopefully Cool Cody is in the places.
NotwhatIam is interesting but I concluded that others would stay up this hill far better and were a bit more unexposed. I could be wrong there and I won’t be shocked if Nick has got this one right again, but I had a couple of niggles. I decided that Boyhood wasn’t well handicapped and he still looks wayward – he drifts, needs niggling along and given his profile has clearly had problems. He may run into a place, and hopefully I haven’t got him wrong.
I should mention A Toi Phil.. he may get some small change at BFSP but I wanted to be with younger legs, more unexposed. He’s been chasing for ages and is high class at his best, but his best may be behind him now. He also has a stamina question, and I decided to leave him.
I couldn’t have the rest for various reasons but of course i may have got the odd one wrong but i’d best not go through them all!
#4 Janika – 1 point win – 9/2 (gen)
#5 Spiritofthegames – 1 point win – 8/1
These poor horses… I apologise in advance but I’ve never been so bullish on a Festival handicap chase. I didn’t want to curse either of them with an official 1.5 or 2 point bet and I hope after the race I regret not doing so. There are reverse forecast options here for fun, and combo tricasts along with Siruh Du Lac – clearly they’re all buggered now, so apologies!
Janika – this is a weak race to my eyes, I think he will run up to his mark, is unexposed and could be a Grade 1 horse in a handicap. No top weights with his profile have run in this before from what I can see and only 4 carrying 11-12 have run in this sent off under 9/1… they have finished 2nd, 5th, 3rd (Henderson) and 4th. Nicky has won this race before and I thought there was so much to like about his last run, esp as he was lit up a bit on the outside. There could be a stronger pace on here which could help and conditions will be ideal. It’s always tough under top weight but he really could be in a different class to these and he carried 11-11 LTO, when just losing narrowly, so carrying weight isn’t a problem. He also ran at trials day LTO… and Henderson/Nicholls are 7/22 with their trials day runners that run at the Festival on their next start. So, that’s a positive. I thought 9/2 was fair, IF i’m right about him – he could blitz them if I am.
Spiritofthegame – in a way I hope he doesn’t blitz them as at the odds clearly i’d prefer this one to win. Nick and I have been keeping tabs on this one for a couple of months now, if not longer. Such is the strength of his handicap hurdle form/efforts, he was always going to look interesting over a fence – we have also been waiting for the CP to return – his best hurdle runs were in this headgear and he hasn’t run over fences in it yet. He ran a fine race LTO, after a short break, and should be spot on here. He jumped well that day but could be under more pressure today. He may need some luck, as do both of them, and of course they need to jump well – but if this one runs his race, he wont be out of the places. I just can’t see how he doesn’t go very close here and maybe the 9lb less on his back will be decisive against the fav come the line.
The dangers… well Siruh Du Lac will run his race again and just beat the fav LTO – i’d like to think his winning may be done now and he won’t be able to dictate through the second half of the race as he did LTO – well, i hope not anyway! If he does dictate then he will go close but i preferred the other two, as they both should have more in hand over fences.
Eamon An Cnoic – he should run his race and I can see why there’s some money. He hits my stats shortlist and Pipe has a good record in this. However, I had niggles over this trip at this track, in this field size, and I didn’t think he looked like having 10lb+ in hand- I could be very wrong there. The yard are a bit quiet also. I thought the selections would run up to their marks, or surpass them, and as such most of those in this have loads to find.
Didero Vallis- he’s on the shortlist also and Venetia does well in this but I concluded his chase form wasn’t that great and the handicapper should have him now. I could be wrong but he needs much more. An annoying one at 20s but I decided to be against him. Change on the machine at a big price maybe…
I really couldn’t have the rest. River Wyle is short for one who fell LTO and this will be a completely new test. He’s unexposed if he jumps around. I like Azzerti but decided he doesn’t as yet have the chase experience necessary for this test yet. He looks a nice horse in the making though. I looked at Kolondra but he’s usually held up right out the back, his recent form is iffy and there should be better handicapped ones in this. I could leave him, but he’s interesting.
Anyway, you get the idea.
#6 Speaker Connolly – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) (15.5 Betfx)
#7 The Young Master – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen) (28.00 Betfx)
The first thing to say is that I missed the price on Any Second Now. He would have been tipped if 10/1 when I got to him but alas that’s gone, and he’s now too short to my eyes – he’s still a chase maiden, he has a stamina question, and his jumping was iffy LTO. He also has blinkers and i’m not a fan of restricted vision for one that may not race prominently/make all, esp given his jumping. He walked through the last LTO although that was a decent race. Anyway, he hits all my stats and has one of best jockeys in race on him, so I can see why people fancy him. He is a danger for sure. I couldn’t touch the 11 year old Measureofmydreams at 4s, and he can happily beat me, and well done to connections if he does win. Not for me at the price. Silly season.
Speaker Connolly – only 10 six year olds have run in this in recent years but two have placed and his last two runs entitle him to a go in this. His jumping has got better with experience however I won’t be shocked if he hits one, and doesn’t complete. That’s a danger for a few in here, including Any Second Now. However, given he’s on the trends list, his trainer is in form and knows how to train a Festival chase winner, and the horse’s profile, I couldn’t resist at 12s. If he jumps I think he will be storming up this hill. He’s run the last twice as if he will relish this trip and he does want it softer. He won two starts ago having been held up out the back, making ground in the manner of a very smart chaser in the making. LTO he got outpaced on that ground in a race not run to suit but he was doing all his best work late on. I’ve no doubt he’s still thrown in, it’s just a case of when he shows it. Hopefully today but if not he’s one to track. I could see him rocking up in next year’s Ultima if handling the track, and certainly one for the Irish spring festivals.
The Young Master – I just couldn’t resist at 20s. Horses that are 10, and indeed that PU LTO have won this race so no worries, stats wise, on that front. I decided I wanted one with Cheltenham chase form on my side here, and there’s only two of them in this with winning form here- Perfect Candidate the other one. He seemed rejuvenated before Christmas, which I think coincided with a change in tactics – they rode him much more prominently in those races. I hope they may try and be front rank again. He’s got Festival form, and in 2016 ran on in the Ultima on soft ground. Yes I do think he wants better ground and tis may be too soft, but it’s officially good to soft, soft in places. I’d like to think this has been the plan, he goes well here, he goes well fresh and the yard are in-form. He has one of the better jockeys on his back in this also. If this ground is a slog/tacky then it’s probably a wasted bet but his price lured me in. IF he could get jumping near the front end he could take this up at the top of the hill and would be hard to pass if doing so as he won’t want for stamina. The most interesting outsider to my eyes.
Of the others… Kilfilum Cross is interesting but I decided he was too inexperienced over fences and this course is a bit harder than Ludlow LTO. Just A Sting got a look but again he’s inexperienced for a test like this and the handicapper could have him (or something could have more in hand). He is definitely better on better ground also. I was happy to leave but he could go well. I was happy to leave the rest and if they beat me then so be it. Arkwrisht would be a good horse if he could jump. A clear round and he’d out-run his odds but that’s a big question for him.
Any other races
#8 Posh Trish – 1 point win – 6/1 (betfS/PP) 11/2 (gen)
I couldn’t leave this one here. I think she’s massively overpriced even at these odds. She’s ultra progressive and when PN says it’s one of his best chances of the week, I like to take note. She will stay further also so I expect her to be very prominent. She travels, jumps, has class and I don’t think they are anywhere near the bottom of her yet. I think there’s more to come and on official ratings she’s the best of these on what they have done to date. I think she is the one to beat here and i hope we see a special performance.
The fav is a clear danger but she has looked very green and this is a big step up. I prefer the experience/hardiness of the selection and she’s short enough. The occasion may get to her and she will struggle if not settling here – they have reached for a hood which makes sense, but indicates they have those concerns also.
Fingers cross Posh Trish can get the job done.
2.10 – Pertemps
Not drop in class, mx run 24-26f, ran in non major race LTO, ran in handicap hurdle or novice hurdle LTO…
that gives us 10/128, 31p in the last decade.
That profile only knocks out 9 or so leaving a long list…
Sir Du Berlais / First Assignment / Samburu Shujaa / NotwhatIam / Aaron Lad / Walk to Freedom / A Toi Phil / Not Many Left / Thermistocles / Boyhood / Flemcara / Tobefair / Wait for Me / Culture De Sivola / Apen Colarado
Combing those 10/10 and the 8/10 stats… there are 8 in total.
There are three horses that hit 8/8 on the pointers, having hit the initial 4 10/10 stats I used…
Samburu Shujaa – unexposed, prominent racer, stayer, more to come. Hobbs has won this before and is in form. Interesting one. I’m not sure there’s loads of pace on paper in this albeit they often go quicker in handicap hurdles than I assume. A Dicky special maybe.
Not Many Left – unexposed and in form, i’m not sure as to the strength of his form, Huntingdon isn’t the best of prep tracks and Robbie Power seemingly jumps ship. Interesting, but after a quick glance I prefer the one above and…
Thermistocles – unexposed for JOB, kept fresh after qualifying for this. Looks sure to relish this sort of pace/test and ground… I think. Interesting. I’d like to see some of his trainer’s horses running a bit better though.
A Toi Phil... he’s 7/8 and is thrown in on his classy chase form. An interesting contender for connections that should always be feared.
Anyway, that’s the initial stats work and brief thoughts after a 5 minute look…
4.10 Stable Plate
Top 2 at least once last 3 / Highest class win was G1 or no higher than C2 / 0-3 runs at the track / placed at least once last three / 0-3 runs in the class / 0-4 runs max at this class or higher
That profile gives us 10/67, 17p, +210 BFSP in the last decade and leaves us just 5…
Eamon An Cnoic / Azzerti / Kauto Riko / Some Buckle / Didero Vallis
There are a further 5 stats pointers I looked at…. 0 wins G3 level / 0 wins at the track / handicap chase or novice chase LTO / carried 10-4-10-13 / 2-7 runs higher distance.
Eamon An Cnoic and Didero Vallis hit all of those.
Azzerti is unexposed.. I’m not sure I can have Kauto Riko and Some Buckle given their profiles.
Eamon and Didero represent the two winning most trainers of this in last decade… 3/24 for Pipe, 3/27 for Venetia.
I mean whether I end up tipping them or not, they deserve some support just on that basis I think! Again i’ll look at the race from scratch later on.
5.30 – The Kim Muir
OR 134 or higher / 11-4+ on back exc claims / 3-7 runs last 365 days / 4 or fewer runs in class… that profile leaves 10/72, 23p, +85 the last decade
That leaves 9…
Any Second Now / The Young Master / Kilfilum Cross / Squouateur / Speaker Connolly / Just A Sting / Out Sam / Arkwrist / Crievehill
You could use further stats to filter… 2-6 runs this season, aged 7-9, 0-2 handicap chase wins, non claiming jockeys…
Six of those have an 8/8 profile…
Any Second Now (Derek O’Connor!) / Kilfilum Cross / Squouateur / Just A Sting / Arkwrist / Crievehill
5.Any Other Thoughts
‘Through The Card’
1.30 – No strong views really… I like Defi Du Seuil and he should go close. A concern over the form of the Tizzard yard makes me cautious on the second fav. I did think it was between them… the one lurker at a price is Pravalaguna – and if you have a Skybet account and don’t like backing shorties with the free bet, she could be interesting at 11s.
2.40 – again no strong views. I hope Frodon wins for Nick, and my bank balance, but I had a fear he may get outclassed against these – over this trip, which is the important bit. They may be more patient with him, I’m not sure. I hope he wins. Of the rest, it’s unoriginal but i do think Road To Respect is the one to beat.
3.30 – Paisley Park … to short for me but I think if he jumps, he wins. I think he will bolt up here personally, and win this very well! It would be emotional if he wins given his/connections story, as it would if Faugheen comes back to his best – it may be the moment of the week if he could some how win but I don’t fancy him with my logical head on. Kilbricken Storm EW may be the interesting outside and if he got back to his best should be running into the places, and who knows after that.
I think that’s the lot. Best of luck with any bets, as always.
I think this day will decide my fate this week, gulp! 🙂