Members Daily Post: 10/03/19 (complete)

section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Musselburgh

3.35 –

Liva   (micro dist)  w2 H3 I1 G3 9/4  S4

Exit To Where   (HcH, m TJC)  ES+ 15/2 S3A

4.40 – Kelpies Myth   (HcH, m class)  ES+ H1 I1 G3 9/4 S3A# S4

5.10 –

Danceintothelight   (m dist) H1 I3 G3 9/2  S4

Max Liebermann   (HcH) 12/1 S2

 

Warwick

3.25 –

Tick Tock Boom   (m class) 14/1 S2

Kestrel Valley   (m class) G3 20/1 S1 S2A 

4.30 – Bahama Moon   (all Hc’s, m class)  ES+ H3 I1 G1 7/4 S3A# S4 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -6.9 )Best of Stats (29/153,68p, -1.2) Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 1/17,5p, -12)

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Nothing today. Next tips will be at Cheltenham, on Tuesday, in the special Fetsival Posts.

Apols for the brief outage this morning. The security certificate is meant to auto-renew every three months, but alas, it never does. Still to find a longer term fix, as it needs renewing every 3 months, but better happening today than Tuesday.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide)

3.35 M – Liva

5.10 M – Danceintothelight

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

2.50 W – Discko Des Plages

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)

4.10 M – Pinch of Ginger

Trainers to follow

2.30 M – Tetraites Style (11/1< guide)

3.05 M – Mixboy ”

4.40 M – Goldencard ”

Jockeys/Chasers

3.55 W – Cucklington

LTO winning trainers

3.35 M – Indian Opera (10/1<)

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

3.05 M – Elmono

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book 

4.30 W – Bahama Moon

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Chelt Festival Week ‘Master Post’ : HERE>>>

(inc the stats pack, approach to week, betting bank advice, tipping comp rules) 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

49 Responses

  1. Evening,

    Now I did a bit better across the water in Ireland today/yesterday, so , will give it one last go…

    16:50 NAAS
    MONBEG NOTORIUS 14/1 gen 1pt ew
    After a disastrous Saturday thought i would turn my attention to this “National” over the water, Monbeg needs it wet, this should be right up his street and although Wishmoor has been backed as though defeat is out of the question, i do believe this one is the main horse for gigginstown here.He was only a novice when winning the Thyestes the other year and should now know what it takes to win a race of this nature, over priced considering his form on this going and the booking of Jack Kennedy again for him in my eyes is significant!
    BELLOW MOME 16/1 gen 1pt ew
    Now everyone knows about my liking for the jock on this one, and the money is starting to come for the horse too, he is a bit of an unknown, but, beat General Principle over 2m 2f early on and is obviously no slouch, could be anything from back of tv to absolutely cantering up here…we shall see, but, at 14/ 16 to 1 he is worth a stab at ew.

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

  2. no selections tomorrow, there are a few might have’s,
    Muss 3-35. might have had a go with Green Zone ew if 8 or more runners.
    Muss 5-10. might of gone for Danceintothelight if 9-1 not 9-2
    a pretty good card at Warwick,
    2-50. Discko Des Plages up in trip and first time hood for handicap debut might of had a punt if a much bigger price
    3-25. might have gone for On Raglan Road but pu lto a big concern
    3-55. might of had a bet if i could make my mind up between Gardiners Hill/Optimistic Bias/Goodnight Charlie

  3. Evening,

    Now I did a bit better across the water in Ireland today/yesterday, so , will give it one last go…

    16:50 NAAS
    MONBEG NOTORIUS 14/1 gen 1pt ew
    After a disastrous Saturday thought i would turn my attention to this “National” over the water, Monbeg needs it wet, this should be right up his street and although Wishmoor has been backed as though defeat is out of the question, i do believe this one is the main horse for gigginstown here.He was only a novice when winning the Thyestes the other year and should now know what it takes to win a race of this nature, over priced considering his form on this going and the booking of Jack Kennedy again for him in my eyes is significant!
    BELLOW MOME 16/1 gen 1pt ew
    Now everyone knows about my liking for the jock on this one, and the money is starting to come for the horse too, he is a bit of an unknown, but, beat General Principle over 2m 2f early on and is obviously no slouch, could be anything from back of tv to absolutely cantering up here…we shall see, but, at 14/ 16 to 1 he is worth a stab at ew.

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

  4. no selections tomorrow, there are a few might have’s,
    Muss 3-35. might have had a go with Green Zone ew if 8 or more runners.
    Muss 5-10. might of gone for Danceintothelight if 9-1 not 9-2
    a pretty good card at Warwick,
    2-50. Discko Des Plages up in trip and first time hood for handicap debut might of had a punt if a much bigger price
    3-25. might have gone for On Raglan Road but pu lto a big concern
    3-55. might of had a bet if i could make my mind up between Gardiners Hill/Optimistic Bias/Goodnight Charlie

    1. Yep indeed! Keep being told it’s fixed/will auto renew, but it never does! Every 3 months. Never mind, at least it’s working etc!

  5. System bets were poor yesterday. Not too much damage if you assign 2 points to handicap chase bets as I have mentioned in the past.

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +69.48

    1pt win 4.30 W – Bahama Moon

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT +6.28

    3.05 M – Elmono
    4.10 M – Shaiyzar

    Grab the 9/2 and 5/2 if you can on those as unlikely to be available at 10am when I settle

  6. Hi Josh
    Looking through the stats for Cheltenham (ultima Hcp) states:

    10/10 had 3+ runs in this class or higher class (0-2: 0/66, 10p)

    Is this for chases only?

  7. Disappointing day yesterday for me too having not had a bet all week. Picked up a 2nd in the first only to be beaten a length by an out of form outsider and the first of the Hcp bets didn’t exactly set the pulse rating, but it averages out around 800 bets a year, most of which, as is the case with novices, appear during the turf season. So is lots to come on that one especially with less than 3 weeks to go till Doncaster kicks the ball away for the start of the new flat season.

    One thing I have decided to do with the handicap bets is to put up the odds that inform users as to the cut off point for historic value. This means the point at which from past record there has been no evidence of any value being had if you were to take a lower price. Most of them I’ve seen so far are in the range of 3/1 to 4/1 so no surprises there and is probably in accordance with the views of most of the handicap bet posters on here.

    Back at 1.00

  8. COLINS and ELITE BETS No bets
    The new method continued its good run in March with one winner BOG 9/2, SP 11/4 from 3 bets.
    Warwick
    1.50 Flash The Steel BOG 13/8
    3.55 The Boss’s Dream BOG 4/1
    Musselburgh
    2.00 Torrid BOG 9/4
    3.35 Desert Island Dusk BOG 9/1
    Do not back old method reviewed whist recovering at home, proven to me, you may want to give it till the end of may before investing.
    Mar, 11 winners from 30 bets SP + 17.5 not recorded BOG till yesterday 9/2 to 11/4 so again early/ bog will show higher points profit.
    Colin

    1. Only one short priced winner today SP 5/6 BOG 13/8 R4 25 pence, two 2nds from the other 3, the worst one 9/1 to 6/1 the jockey dropped his whip and only just failed by a SH.
      Colin.

  9. just raided my Cheltenham jar, i start in the new year and stick a bit in whenever i have a few quid spare, only £342 this year but i treat it as money for entertainment. so that’s my pot if i lose it all i’m not that bothered but obviously a few winners would be nice 🙂

  10. bugger wife’s just seen the money counted out on the table says we could have a nice weekend away with it :-0

  11. Today’s would be comp darts

    Naas
    2:40 Stooshie

    Musselburgh
    4:40 Kelpies Myth

    Warwick
    2:50 Diva Recounce
    3:55 Optimistic Bias
    5:30 Chantry House

    1. Yep indeed! Keep being told it’s fixed/will auto renew, but it never does! Every 3 months. Never mind, at least it’s working etc!

  12. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    M 5.10 – Avondhu Pearl on 6th run @ 9
    …………Reivers Lodge on 6th run @ 33
    W 3.55 – Goodnight Charlie on 2nd run @ 14
    Festival
    N 2.40 – Russian Bill on 1st run @ 16
    N 4.50 – Last Goodbye on 5th run @ 33
    GL

  13. System bets were poor yesterday. Not too much damage if you assign 2 points to handicap chase bets as I have mentioned in the past.

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +69.48

    1pt win 4.30 W – Bahama Moon

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT +6.28

    3.05 M – Elmono
    4.10 M – Shaiyzar

    Grab the 9/2 and 5/2 if you can on those as unlikely to be available at 10am when I settle

    1. Hi mate I emailed Josh about the charity bet a few days ago but not heard back so not sure quite how to sort this??

      1. I did email back?? Well I thought it did! Apols if not. You can send me it via PayPal, my email on that account is racingtoprofit@gmail.com
        Use the friends and family sending money option.
        In email I asked if there was a horse you wanted to throw into the bet?
        Yet to decide what to do but will place something tomorrow.
        Francis original pick was Sir Erec, which tried to talk out of after one preview I went to but then watched another where everyone seemed to agree he was a banker haha. So may go back to that one. Will see.
        If you pick a horse could do a Trixie or something.

        1. I’m now leaning towards Apple’s Jade 5/2 on exchanges so Tuesday morning probably the time to place it. Lots of hype about the Mullins horse as the best mare he’s ever trained but I’m sure Gord would say the same about AJ. The champ deserves respect but two weak renewals. If he makes it three then hats off….there is no knocking him!

        2. Josh I’ve not had an email I thought it might have ended up in my spam but it wasn’t anyway you should have 25 quid from my Paypal in there now … as for a trixie nice idea but my strongest bet is Apples Jade by some way so it looks like me and Francis are on the same page lets just keep it simple with a quality double I also think Paisley Park has major chance but I’ll play that one in running as I think he will trade much longer .

  14. Hi Josh
    Looking through the stats for Cheltenham (ultima Hcp) states:

    10/10 had 3+ runs in this class or higher class (0-2: 0/66, 10p)

    Is this for chases only?

    1. Hi Andy, no I think it will be in career to date. Those class stats I’ll definitely use HRB for to sift as some of the parameters can be tad confusing. On some of the class filters it’s very much class 1 2 3 4 etc. But on others it can treat a Listed to a Grade 3 .. that’s a class move of up 1. But both c1.
      I think that class stat you refer to is 1,2,3 etc. But when I do the stats shortlists I get HRB to do all the work against whatever trends filters I pick to avoid human error.
      Josh

  15. Disappointing day yesterday for me too having not had a bet all week. Picked up a 2nd in the first only to be beaten a length by an out of form outsider and the first of the Hcp bets didn’t exactly set the pulse rating, but it averages out around 800 bets a year, most of which, as is the case with novices, appear during the turf season. So is lots to come on that one especially with less than 3 weeks to go till Doncaster kicks the ball away for the start of the new flat season.

    One thing I have decided to do with the handicap bets is to put up the odds that inform users as to the cut off point for historic value. This means the point at which from past record there has been no evidence of any value being had if you were to take a lower price. Most of them I’ve seen so far are in the range of 3/1 to 4/1 so no surprises there and is probably in accordance with the views of most of the handicap bet posters on here.

    Back at 1.00

    1. It perhaps depends how you are backing them Tim. Generally I would agree there is a minimum price point if you are backing on exchanges close to the off. However, if you are backing systems BOG, as long as the system is close to breakeven point below say 3/1, they are maybe still worth backing as you will get a value bet on all steamers and often get close to the exchange price on the drifters…. plus the steamers are more likely to win! That’s my rationale for posting them anyway.

      Still not completely convinced there is any value on my systems once they go odds on tbh.

      1. Mine have to go up later in the day really as they are designed with exchange betting in mind. I’ve not had a bet with a bookie for several years now as eventually you realise that you are never going to make a living by dodging around all day with fivers and change when you’re having to replace accounts every month cos they all close you down in the end. This is the reason as to why there is little if any early liquidity on the exchanges in the first place. Layers aren’t stupid whether they are working from home on the exchanges or working for large corporates with thousands of outlets and there is no law that says that a bookie has to take your bet despite that old adage that bookies roll out that punters have the advantage because they don’t need to get involved in every race.

        If you want to make a living out of the game I’d say it’s nigh on impossible using bookies offers and early prices. There just aren’t enough hours in the day to do all the analysis and then spread a decent bet on with god knows how many bookmakers all in loose change.

        All my bets are researched and put together with the odds needed in order to guarantee a strategic return on the exchanges, which is why sometimes you just can’t get on. I’m not saying it is better or worse, but it is the only way I know to make a living in these times where bookies appear to have more information on you than your bank manager does.

        1. Thanks Tim, very insightful that. As someone who has had a torrid time over my first 3 months since December – i m NOT complaining and am leaning all the time (follow fewer people now), and predominantly uses Betfair, it sure isn’t easy. My philosophical side realises these opening months have been good for the discipline going forwards, and i feel very fortunate that there are so many excellent folk on here who share things. Onwards and upwards!

          1. John….. like many others I started out in the days when bookies were chalking prices up with real chalk and spent my time huddled around an Extel loud speaker in the corner of a smoke filled shop. In those days no one knew who you were or how much money you had in your pocket let alone how much you gambled.

            Having had some limited success as a saturday gambler I decided to give it a go after being made redundant when the company I worked for sold out to a major rival. At first playing with fivers and tenners is ok cos lets face it you have a substantial amount of redundancy money to fall back on to keep paying the bills with, but once you realise you are dipping it every month without fail despite having had a ‘good’ month with the bookies, simple mathematics tells you that it’s only a matter of 3 – 4 years before you run out if you can’t find a better way to increase your stakes and pro rata, your returns.

            Sometimes necessity really has to be the mother of invention.

          2. Tim, afraid they knew who was winning in the old days used to have a run out to Towcester with my bookie mates, would keep my eye on the prices and run and lay a bet for them.
            Adrian would shout he his coming would watch what this guy backed then run up the line to Adrians board, and he would promptly rub the price of that horse off the board, i would go up the line backing the horse for us, would say we collected 8 out of 10 times, and even in the shops new what the crack was, for it was their job.
            Happy days for as you become older they cannot take the good memories away, avoiding altzimers of course.
            Colin.

  16. COLINS and ELITE BETS No bets
    The new method continued its good run in March with one winner BOG 9/2, SP 11/4 from 3 bets.
    Warwick
    1.50 Flash The Steel BOG 13/8
    3.55 The Boss’s Dream BOG 4/1
    Musselburgh
    2.00 Torrid BOG 9/4
    3.35 Desert Island Dusk BOG 9/1
    Do not back old method reviewed whist recovering at home, proven to me, you may want to give it till the end of may before investing.
    Mar, 11 winners from 30 bets SP + 17.5 not recorded BOG till yesterday 9/2 to 11/4 so again early/ bog will show higher points profit.
    Colin

    1. Only one short priced winner today SP 5/6 BOG 13/8 R4 25 pence, two 2nds from the other 3, the worst one 9/1 to 6/1 the jockey dropped his whip and only just failed by a SH.
      Colin.

  17. just raided my Cheltenham jar, i start in the new year and stick a bit in whenever i have a few quid spare, only £342 this year but i treat it as money for entertainment. so that’s my pot if i lose it all i’m not that bothered but obviously a few winners would be nice 🙂

  18. bugger wife’s just seen the money counted out on the table says we could have a nice weekend away with it :-0

    1. That will teach you Martin… 🙂 Always keep it in the mattress, that way you know how much is there, apart from when the kids found mine the other year and i had £15 left for Cheltenham haha!!!

  19. Today’s would be comp darts

    Naas
    2:40 Stooshie

    Musselburgh
    4:40 Kelpies Myth

    Warwick
    2:50 Diva Recounce
    3:55 Optimistic Bias
    5:30 Chantry House

  20. Today’s……..

    1.50 Warw’ Espoire De Guye…. 11.0
    3.45 Naas Jetz…………………. 5.8

    1. Sorry guys…. we were busted there by the withdrawal of Deyrann De Car Jack shortly after I put them up. Wouldn’t be fair to recalculate the odds and repost with so little time before the race.

      1. I guess your right Nick…. and this why I keep banging on about the importance of getting a price that reflects the overall liability and some. If I’d have been taking everything I fancied at any price I’d have been out of the game yonks ago. Newbies take note!

  21. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    M 5.10 – Avondhu Pearl on 6th run @ 9
    …………Reivers Lodge on 6th run @ 33
    W 3.55 – Goodnight Charlie on 2nd run @ 14
    Festival
    N 2.40 – Russian Bill on 1st run @ 16
    N 4.50 – Last Goodbye on 5th run @ 33
    GL

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