Members Daily Post: 09/03/19 (complete)

ALL TIPS x5,, Section 1 (complete), Imperial Cup tips, test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Ayr

2.45 –

Chanceanotherfive   (HcH) H3 13/2

Asking For Answers   (all Hc’s) H3 I3 9/1 (S5 IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Blaydon   (micro TJC) 12/1 S2 

3.20 – Charmant   (m dist)  w2 H3 I3 G3 10/3 S4 

3.55 –

Derriana Spirit   (m runs)  w1  w2 H1 I3 Evens 

Talkofgold   (all Hc’s) 25/1 S2A 

Castaliera   (HcH) G3 11/1 S1 S2 

4.30 –

One For Harry   (m runs)  I3 12/1 S2 S5 

Eternally Yours   (HcH)  w1 H3 I1 G1 6/1 S4 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Traditional Dancer   (HcH) 14,30  G3 33/1 S1 

5.05 – Glittering Love   (m runs)  w1  w2 H3 I1 13/8 

 

Sandown 

1.50 –

One For Rosie   (nov HcH)  w1 10/1 S2 

Muratello   (nov HcH) H3 I1 22/1 S2A S5 

2.25 –

Call Me Lord   (HcH, m’s dist,going.age)  w2 H1 I1 7/1 

Dream On Grand Val   (HcH, m’s dist,going,age) H3 I3 G3 7/1 S4 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

3.35 –

Loose Chips   (HcCh, m’s dist,going) 22/1 S2A 

Salmanazar   (m runs) H3 G3 I1 16/1 S1 S2A S4 

4.45 – Duke Des Champs   (m’s TJC,dist) 14 H3 G3  11/4 

 

Hereford 

No stats profile 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -5.9 )Best of Stats (29/153,68p, -1.2) Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 1/14,4p, -7)

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5 tips below, 7 point outlay. That’s all for Saturday as of 08.55

Daily tips

#3 3.35 Sandown 

Salmanazar – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)

Kansas City Chief – 1 point win – 11/1 (gen)

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Big Race Tips

#1 2.25 Sandown 

Call Me Lord – 1 point win – 8/1 (Lad/BetfS/PP/Boyle/888)

Solomon Grey – 1 point win – 14/1  NR

#2 1.50 Sandown 

Russian Hawk – 1 point EW – 8/1 (bet365/WH) 15/2 (gen)

Trixster – 1 point EW – 16/1 (gen) (1/4, 4 gen, 1/5 5, WH 7 places 14s)

 

Call Me Lord – this one would be a stats buster of sorts but at 8s I wanted to have a go. He races here off top weight, as he did in this last year when going down close home, the front two miles clear. The winner that day raced wider, possibly on the better part of the track, and then carried him across the track to the rail. It was a brave effort. On only the 11th start of his life, and 8th in the UK, I think there’s every chance he’s even better than last year- well, on the figures he’s an 8lb better horse. He’s a winning machine, 5/10 in his career to date, unplaced just the twice, and he is just all class. No horse in the last 22 years has run in this rated higher than 152, so some of the stats have to be treated with caution. There are 4/5 places available in many places but as is my want i’ve gone on the nose. I don’t think he’ll be out of the places and whatever finishes ahead of him wins I think. This is a Grade 2, verging on a G1 horse in a handicap, one where there could still be more to come. He’s 3/4,4p at Sandown, this is his track, and I can only assume this has been the plan for the red hot Nicky Henderson team. On his final run last season he demolished a field of 150+ horses and made them look like trees. He returned at Ascot in the JLT hurdle over 24f where he was badly hampered early, had to come from further back than idea, travelled into it two out where he was carried violently to his right, probably losing 15+ lengths as the others were quickening up. He may have needed it also and may not have stayed. He seems to travel at the same pace whatever the trip and in this ground, with plenty of pace on paper to sit behind, he should go very well here- IF running his race/luck in running of course. I just had visions of one of those great handicap weight carrying performances and him demolishing this lot! At 8s i’ll pay to find out, but for those of you who prefer EW, I wouldn’t put you off. I can’t see him not placing here. I think he will run up to his mark, which means the rest have to find plenty, which some may do…

Solomon Grey – Non runner

Of the rest…well as always time for that clapped out RTP cliche – ‘i may not have mentioned the winner!’…

Monsieur Lecoq… I think he’s the right fav here and I wouldn’t put anyone off a saver say, if that’s your thing. I mean at 5s with 5 places, i’d be in total shock if he wasn’t near to the podium. He does feel the right price but he’s ever so progressive and may handle conditions better than some of the others around him in the market. Clearly track and trip are fine. What interested me is that the time of his win here LTO was near identical to the time of last year’s race, which Call Me Lord contested as above. It would indicate that he’s probably well handicapped still and he could be a graded horses in the making, who knows. He is inexperienced though especially for a big field like this and he’s had a break – he’ll be fit, but it’s not impossible he’s fresh/takes a pull, and that could cost him at the death. It could be nonsense of course but i’d have preferred Lizzy on. Chester is ok, but a race in these conditions, with this many runners etc, is a hard task for a 7lb claimer. That claim may help him scoot home but he’s been found in the market and I couldn’t tip him given I think he’s the right price, and I really need to stop dipping under 8/1 in these big Saturday handicaps. Were he 8s+ then he’d have been tipped, and i may have gone 3 handed. 

I can leave Malaya at those odds, given she can take a tug, can hit a hurdle and I assume may be held up out the back, ridden cold. So she will need luck albeit on paper it’s hard not to anticipate a pace collapse here. She may travel like the winner but can be keen, and at 6s there just wasn’t enough there for me. I’d prefer the Williams horse for sure, who should race closer to the pace. In this going it’s always hard to make up ground from too far back, unless you’re chucked in/all class.

Dream Du Grand Val  -he’s short enough given his best form in the UK/his improvement, appears to have come on a sounder surface and at this price I think you want a proven mudlark – he isn’t 14s. I have concerns over him getting home, and of course he needs to take a step forward I think, I’m not sure as to the level of his form as yet, but he’s clearly a nice horse in the making.

Benny’s Bridge is a danger- one of those at 8s, which has me on the fence a tad – i think he’s still well handicapped but this is a very deep race much deeper than LTO- that Chelt race fell apart a bit, they went hard and went too soon, and he received a decent ride cutting through them like a hot knife through butter (is anyone playing cliche bingo, full house soon :)) – he was ridden that way because he’s still keen but if he settles here off this pace (may ride him handier now he has experience) he could be a danger. He is out of the handicap and bottom/joint bottom weights haven’t won this in the last decade, and others have achieved more so far. Testing enough ground is a question for him also but I could see him slicing through them. I couldn’t be tempted in at 8s, and at the same price preferred the classier performer. I may have that wrong, but will cope with it.

Extra Mag is interesting because of connections and their record in this race but he’s hard to weigh up and everything above him in the market, and indeed a couple below, have achieved much more so far, yet are also open to improvement. It would be some performance to go from C4 novices to taking this race. Clearly one to track if he does!

First Flow… he’s interesting, i’ve no doubt he’s well handicapped, has class, and will relish conditions. And the yard are flying. But I’m not taking single figures in a race like this given it’s his first run for 361 days and he makes handicap debut, of which the stats could be better as per below. He can beat me at those odds and credit to Kim Bailey if he does.

I’ll be mildly surprised/bemused if something else takes this. I should mention Speredek who is on the stats shortlist at 20s. I know what happens now 🙂 Gulp. He’s been over fences for a while and given his crashing fall LTO this may be a run to boost his confidence. He isn’t going to get an easy lead here I don’t think, may not have the pace for this test over hurdles, and while his chase form is decent (but mainly in small fields), and he is well handicapped on that basis, his hurdles form before going chasing was only OK. I’d like to think one of the more progressive/lightly raced ones will have his measure here, but he may give it a good go from the front. He has nothing on his back with the 10lb claim and is maybe no forlorn hope to grab a place. I’ll be sitting in contemplative silence for 30 mins or so if he wins! (I think Chubnut fancies his chances at the price)

PACE… Totterdown / Our Merlin / Speredek all like to make all/push the pace hard. They don’t seem to know how to race any other way! I think this will be truly run. Monsieur Lecoq should track, as may First Flow and a few others, including Solomon Grey. Daryl may be more patient on mine but over this trip, given his class, I suspect he may have him just behind the pace, hopefully. Dream Du Grand Val made all LTO but i’d be surprised if they tried that again in this race.

So, that’s that. Happy with the picks at the prices and it would be welcome if one of them could fall in. We shall see if i’ve read them, and the dangers, correctly.

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1.50 

I spent a good chunk of my Friday evening watching the last couple of runs of every horse in this race- and sometimes I wonder why i’m still single! These two looked the most interesting/suited to this test I think and with 4 places to aim at i’ve gone EW which is rare for me, but baring an accident I thought both would be bang there…

Russian Hawk – it wasn’t lost on my that ‘Puppy’ is over here for just the one ride, especially given that Jessie has a handicap debutant at Gowran that he rode LTO (albeit it’s a mediocre race) and that’s he booked for two at Naas tomorrow. Trainer and jockey are 2/4,3p in hurdles at Sandown, Tizzard 5/23,10p with all hurdlers here in the last 2 years. The horse.. well he’s won over further at Exeter three starts back in what looked testing enough ground, and he did it under hands and heels from Diumede Des Mottes. It was a big field race and he runs like a stayer in the making – he could well be an RSA type next year, and maybe the next Elegant Escape or something! He’s since run twice at Ascot in small field, muddling affairs, on better ground. The pace etc really didn’t suit him, visibly outpaced twice turning for home but staying on in eye-catching enough fashion, not knocked about. That could happen again but in this big field, on what is a very testing hurdles track, I thought this may play to his strengths. He looks to be learning still, like most in here, but with enough experience already. He could be well handicapped off this mark and 9/10 winners of this were top 10 in the weights. I like Ascot form coming here as that’s a stiff climb to the line and rarely a bad race there. He’s yet to finish out of the top 3 in any race and he should be grinding away at the end here. It was noticeable yesterday that stayers came to the fore – Forza Milan is a 3 miler, and he powered away over 19f here yesterday, for example. Of those at the top of the market, 8, 9/1, he looked the most interesting to me – he looks the most dour stayer of the lot, and that’s what you’ll need here.

Trixster – how he is 16/1 is anyone’s guess and if he had a different trainer’s name next to him he’d be 10s< . He is ultra consistent (yet to be out the first 2 this season) , battle hardened, a mud lover, a stayer, a grinder and he’s tactically versatile – I think there’s a chance he tries to make all here. IF he’s a few lengths up turning for home he could well stay there. He’s been keen in a few of his races but must have some engine – he was staying on all the way to the line at Ascot LTO over 24f at Ascot, the front two miles clear, beaten by a progressive Nicholls’ horse. That was also a career best. Heavy ground holds no fears for him and if he runs his race i’m going to be shocked if he isn’t in the top 4 – that depends on me getting plenty of the other unexposed ones right in that I think plenty of them may find this all too much in conditions. This one is a solid jumper and a trier- he has a great head carriage under pressure and i should get a run for my money. His price is just wrong for one with this profile. The yard are going well also, 4/22, 9p in the last 14 days and this jockey knows him and looks decent enough – that 7lb off his back may count for plenty in these conditions, meaning he has 10-10 on his back in actual weight. A solid EW bet!

I could go through every other horse in this, but alas I don’t have the time, with a train to catch to the big smoke, but these are the two for me, given conditions. Clearly it’s packed with unexposed horses, many making handicap debut, and the likes of One For Rosie (ground concern), Third Wind, Garrettstown and Before Midnight are all interesting to some degree. Golden Whiskey should relish conditions and may grab a place but I thought there would be classier horses in this. Game on.

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3.35 

Salmanazar – it will be some party if this boy gets the job done given he’s also an S1, and an expensive race if he or the other one doesn’t prevail! Yes I know he’s 11 but it’s only the 8th chase run of his life. He’s had plenty of problems it would seem but they are getting a clear run at him now. A mark of 122 is starting to look tasty given his one chase win in Feb 15 at Exeter in the slop, came off 130. He went up to 140 after that and has some decent placed efforts over timber to his name off marks in the low 130s. He had 663 days off between April 16 and Jan 18. He probably isn’t as good as then but there’s been a lot to like about his two runs this season, especially LTO over CD. That came after 63 days off and it’s not impossible he needed it a tad. However he settled into a good position and jumped well, and he was staying on into 4th, beaten 11 lengths. That was a decent race with the 3 in front all ultra progressive. I don’t think this race is any stronger actually. He was unfancied that day, 20/1, so it will be interesting to see if he’s clipped in 12s<. He returns 22 days later here which I like, he has course form, and the trainer does well here. There’s a fair bit of pace on paper in this and if he can just sit off it,and pop away, he could sweep past as they all fall in a hole. He is a dour stayer who likes the mud and it did look testing enough yesterday, albeit the chase track is riding better than the hurdles. He looked overpriced here.

Kansas City – as does this one, who ran in the same Sandown chase LTO. He seemed to handle the track well and that was after a 50 day break when the yard were yet to fire. It’s fair to say they are in form now – 8/28, 11p in the last 14 days, trainer and jockey are 5/8 in the last 14. He ran well to a point in that race, still going ok after 4 out, before then seemingly getting tired on what was only the second chase start of the season, his first in the Welsh National. I thought it was eye catching to a point and he is starting to look well handicapped. Yes he’s 10 but again, lightly raced, only his 8th handicap chase. Some of his Irish form was decent – he ran a fine second in the Killarney National in May 17 off this mark, beaten by a horse called Auvergnat who recently won the big Leopardstown handicap chase, and may go ok in the X Country next week, into a place. If he repeats that run he’d be bang there. Hopefully Scu rides him a bit closer now, and again he was unfancied LTO. Again I thought he was overpriced.

I was happy to take on the rest at the prices. Venetia’s is interesting but this is a much deeper race and Charlie is at Hereford. He’s had a break, it’s his first chase LH RH, and first go around here. He also won’t get an easy lead. He was the right price. As is Ami Desbois who I tipped LTO at bigger odds, was well backed, and only just got beat. He got outstayed there and has yet to win over 3m over fences- he also has 15lb more in actual weight on his back, and he doesn’t look the biggest. That was a hard race LTO also. It’s a drop in class but he’s not overpriced.

I couldn’t have the rest. I thought Favorito Bucks needs better ground and in any case he’s not overpriced,but clearly a danger given connections. Bob Mahler needs to step up and has a question going RH – he jumped out to his left at Kempton and it’s his first run here. He jumped poorly at Ascot also. Not for me at 8s. I don’t think The Bay Birch will get home around here in this ground and it’s such a deeper race than LTO. She’s also usually held up cold, so not for me. The TT did make a massive difference though and maybe that has transformed her staying abilities, and she did plug on over 22f at Newbury. But I have my doubts, and again, first chase run here. Horatio H is an exposed 11 year old and this is deeper than this race last year, where he ran with credit. Happy to leave at 8s. There’s not many left I haven’t mentioned but I can’t have them.

There are 3/4 who will get on with it here but hopefully my two will challenge after the pond fence and I can dream of them both battling it out after the last!

That’s the lot for today. Best of luck.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

4.35 H – Envole Toi 18/1

Irish Angles 

4.15 G – Sizing Joshua 100/1 (That’s a 10 point job! ahem :)) 

Irish Raiders (16/1< guide)

3.55 A – Liffeydale Dreamer 5/1

D McCain (14/1< guide)

2.25 S – Chti Balko 33/1

4.30 A – Uppertown Prince 6/1

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

1.50 S – Champagne Well 16/1

2.25 S – Bennys Bridge 8/1

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Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)

5.05 A – Strong Resemblance 9/2

LTO winning trainers

1.50 S – Golden Whiskey 18/1

3.35 S – The Bay Birch  11/1

2.50 H – Skewiff 11/2

Trainers to follow

5.35 A – Sidi Ismael 7/1

Jockeys/Chasers

4.45 S – Lord Bryan (9/1< best) 10/3

3.35 S – The Bay Birch 11/1   (16/1<)

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points

4.00 H – Northern Beau 9/2 / Top And Drop 9/4

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book 

3.20 A – Saint Leo 9/2 / Treshnish 6/1

4.30 A – Silva Eclipse 15/2

4.15 Gow – The Big Galloper 25/1

4.35 H – Elixir Du Gouet 8/1

1.50 S – Garrettstown 9/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

NEW! Chelt Festival Week ‘Master Post’ : HERE>>>

(inc the stats pack, approach to week, betting bank advice, tipping comp rules) 

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Saturday Big Race Stats/Trends/Shortlist

Only one trends race this Saturday…

2.25 Sandown: Imperial Cup

10/190, 37p

10/10 had 1-2 hurdle wins (0/78,12p outside this)

10/10 aged 8 or younger

  • 4: 0/4,1p
  • 9+ : 0/16, 1p

10/10 carried 11-2 or less exc claims

  • 11-3+ : 0/44, 9p (11-12 – 0/10,5p)

10/10 – class move: Same or UP 3 classes max (outside this: 0/43,6p)

9/10 sent off 20/1 or shorter SP

9/10 had 2-5 runs this season (1/50, 7p outside this)

9/10 ran in a handicap LTO (Non handicap: 1/54, 8p)

  • Novice hurdle or non handicap ‘hurdle’ (graded): 0/44, 6p)

8/10 had 3-8 hurdle runs

7/10 had 1-2 handicap hurdle runs (7/39, 13p, +87 BFSP)

6/10 were Irish Bred (6/60, 13p)

  • GB: 3/70, 10p
  • Fr: 1/47, 12p

Other

  • 0 handicap runs: 0/24, 4p
  • 0 handicap hurdle runs: 0/37, 6p
  • 3+ handicap hurdle wins: 0/17, 2p
  • 5+7lb claiming jocks: 0/29, 3p
  • Ran in race worth 4k or less LTO: 0/28, 4p

Track LTO

  • Chelt: 2/12, 5p
  • Newb: 2/33, 9p
  • X1: Lud / Sand/Hunt/Kemp/Ascot/Newc

Trainers (22 years)

  • Team Pipe : 7/39, 16p (Martin 4/22, David 3/17)
  • NTD: 2/6, 2p
  • X1: C Longsdon/ L Mongan/Dr Newland/I Williams/L Wadham/ N Henderson/P Hobbs/P Webber/ A L T Moore

 

Stats Shortlist… well thanks to HRB new 48 declarations….

The 4x 10/10 stats leave…

  • Monsieur Lecoq – 5/1 
  • Dream Du Grandval – 7/1 
  • Malaya – 6/1 
  • Bennys Bridge – 8/1 
  • Solomon Grey – 14/1 
  • Speredek – 20/1 

(two more with 1-2 hurdle wins only…so all those with 1-2 hurdle runs.. list above + Pyomaniac / All Yours)

The 9/10 and 8/10 stats leave 4 (8/36 runners, 12p last decade)… Monsieur Lecoq / Malaya / Bennys Bridge / Solomon Grey

The two with 1-2 handicap hurdle wins RUNS (the 7/10 stat above)… Monsieur Lecoq / Bennys Bridge

Do with that as you please! 🙂

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

80 Responses

  1. I will post the rest later but this one is getting backed:

    14.25 Sand – Solomon Grey Sandown 11/1 – 1pt e/w-Looks to have an excellent chance. The form of his 2nd LTO has been franked with the 3rd hosing up in a class 1 race. I suspect this might have been the plan given Harry gets on board for the first time this season. Fits all the trends. Trainer in form. Barring his re-appearance this season he hasn’t be out of the places in his whole career and I expect him to go very close.

    1. Better Getalong Ayr 16:30 1pt e/w 15/2-Despite being 8 he is pretty unexposed with only 2 handicap hurdle runs this season with both being in high classes. On re-appearance he chased home Ballymoy who went on to win a Grade 3 which this horse also ran in but the ground would have been a little to quick. With rain all day tomorrow I am expecting somewhere between soft and heavy. The step up in trip should suit. He is 3/3 at the track. Trainer in good form. Outside of class 1s he has only finished 1st or 2nd in 7 runs winning 4 of them. Trainer is in excellent form and does well here. Thought he had an excellent chance.

  2. looks like the early moneys coming managed to get 11’s now 10’s , sorry Nick and Josh but it will be one of my selections as well when i put them up.

  3. What’s everyone’s thoughts on the Friday club on Ruk? I think it’s terrible , not nearly as good as the betting lab.

    Question 2. Is everyone discounting Thistlecrack for the GC? I’ve hardly heard his name mentioned by anyone at all but it’s a great ew chance if you ask me. 11/1 seems a tad generous to me. Ran a good race boxing day , struggled a bit at the fences, loses a bit each time but always manages to make up the yards lost no problem, if the little breather has done it’s job and the jumping has been cleaned up a bit he must be there at the finish or am I crackers?

  4. Interesting discussion re. tipsters and who to follow. It feels like 2019 has been great for the cavalier investor and if you are one of those genuinely ‘well done’ but not great for those following tried and tested contributors.

    Personally I follow Josh, Nick, Colin’s bets and brought Tim on board quite recently. I am probably a combined 60-70 points down so far in 2019. The only mistake I made in truth was not cutting off Josh’s top of the market test sooner. I waited for his results to look reliable and then as soon as they did, there was a drawdown or 40 odd points. That’s the name of the game though and I’m big enough and ugly enough to take it.

    I guess there is a school of thought which says that if people are taking the time to post on here they are probably worth following but that’s a bit too aggressive for my mentality. Still best to be prudent and follow those whose figures are statistically reliable in my opinion. Stewart will mostly likely be welcomed onto the panel with open arms for the next NH season – fantastic results!

    Anyway, bets for tomorrow:

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +73.48

    2pt win 1.40 H – Head Lad
    1pt win 3.20 A – Treshnish
    1pt win 5.05 A – Strong Resemblance

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT +4.82

    4.00 H – Too and Drop
    3.35 S – The Bay Birch (only if <9/1 BFSP)

  5. 1.50 Sandown, Before Midnight steps into handicaps for Hendo and Nico. It is a competitive race but at 10/1 in places we can take a chance at 1 point each way.

    2.25 Sandown, Benny’s Bridge has had some knockers in comments in various places but he has bottom weight and a turn of foot. His last race may have cut up and made his win look better than some think but at 8.1 i will go 1 point each way.

    Good luck.

  6. I will post the rest later but this one is getting backed:

    14.25 Sand – Solomon Grey Sandown 11/1 – 1pt e/w-Looks to have an excellent chance. The form of his 2nd LTO has been franked with the 3rd hosing up in a class 1 race. I suspect this might have been the plan given Harry gets on board for the first time this season. Fits all the trends. Trainer in form. Barring his re-appearance this season he hasn’t be out of the places in his whole career and I expect him to go very close.

    1. Better Getalong Ayr 16:30 1pt e/w 15/2-Despite being 8 he is pretty unexposed with only 2 handicap hurdle runs this season with both being in high classes. On re-appearance he chased home Ballymoy who went on to win a Grade 3 which this horse also ran in but the ground would have been a little to quick. With rain all day tomorrow I am expecting somewhere between soft and heavy. The step up in trip should suit. He is 3/3 at the track. Trainer in good form. Outside of class 1s he has only finished 1st or 2nd in 7 runs winning 4 of them. Trainer is in excellent form and does well here. Thought he had an excellent chance.

          1. Son?? I was reading form in Bagdad while you were still in your Dad’s bag. (smiley) so the saying goes ( double smiley)

          2. Great stuff Chubnut and thank you….to be honest I don’t know what you are on about half the time, whether its serious, tongue in cheek,or what, but you certainly know how to pick a horse. Cheers ….please keep posting…and I’m sure I’ll make head or tail of some of your other stuff soon too.

        1. Chubnut, Very thankful for Desert Doctor 9/1 which avoided me having a ‘total wipeout’ today 🙂

  7. looks like the early moneys coming managed to get 11’s now 10’s , sorry Nick and Josh but it will be one of my selections as well when i put them up.

    1. Oh good lord, he’s the combined extra stone on his back with us all, which he doesn’t need in that ground haha

  8. What’s everyone’s thoughts on the Friday club on Ruk? I think it’s terrible , not nearly as good as the betting lab.

    Question 2. Is everyone discounting Thistlecrack for the GC? I’ve hardly heard his name mentioned by anyone at all but it’s a great ew chance if you ask me. 11/1 seems a tad generous to me. Ran a good race boxing day , struggled a bit at the fences, loses a bit each time but always manages to make up the yards lost no problem, if the little breather has done it’s job and the jumping has been cleaned up a bit he must be there at the finish or am I crackers?

    1. You are crackers, not up to this. They will go at it. You need a good stayer for the Gold Cup as Native River proved that last year. save your money. Native River, Native River, Native River. By the way Pete The Feat ran and fell today. I remember when he beat the so called beast Clan Des Obeaux! I know others will say ‘Clan Des Obeaux has improved since then’ which he has but there you go.

  9. Interesting discussion re. tipsters and who to follow. It feels like 2019 has been great for the cavalier investor and if you are one of those genuinely ‘well done’ but not great for those following tried and tested contributors.

    Personally I follow Josh, Nick, Colin’s bets and brought Tim on board quite recently. I am probably a combined 60-70 points down so far in 2019. The only mistake I made in truth was not cutting off Josh’s top of the market test sooner. I waited for his results to look reliable and then as soon as they did, there was a drawdown or 40 odd points. That’s the name of the game though and I’m big enough and ugly enough to take it.

    I guess there is a school of thought which says that if people are taking the time to post on here they are probably worth following but that’s a bit too aggressive for my mentality. Still best to be prudent and follow those whose figures are statistically reliable in my opinion. Stewart will mostly likely be welcomed onto the panel with open arms for the next NH season – fantastic results!

    Anyway, bets for tomorrow:

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +73.48

    2pt win 1.40 H – Head Lad
    1pt win 3.20 A – Treshnish
    1pt win 5.05 A – Strong Resemblance

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT +4.82

    4.00 H – Too and Drop
    3.35 S – The Bay Birch (only if <9/1 BFSP)

    1. Eh what about the guy with th 73.48 points profit .With no made up prices .He is quite good as well mate . If I remember you take your price at 11am .

    2. Francis
      very nicely put and i hate it when my bets are losing feel for everyone who has backed them, would be tempted to half your Colins stake and put half on Elite bets for a 20/1 to 40/1 is due, and over 12 months will be shocked if Elite does not show a good profit.
      Anyway hope you have a few winners today.
      Colin.

      1. Nah that bloke is rubbish Penders – even a broken clock is right twice a day.

        You don’t need to feel for me Colin. I don’t have great records of points profit from last year because the stake size wasn’t constant but you supplied me with somewhere between 150-200 points profit. I am surprised you haven’t bemoaned your luck more than you have because you have had a wretched time of it this year. Kraka was a great example the other night – was clearly the best handicapped horse in the race but pulled for his head the whole way round and got beaten a nose! Just about sums it up, the luck will turn. I just have to hope my portfolio comes to the rescue when my various systems have a dry patch!

        Noted regarding Elite – they were already scheduled in for an April 1st start date!

        1. Kraka won a class 2 previous March and it was in a class 4 when losing by a nose did fancy Kraka strongly in my mind that day, however it lost and only back to win.
          Bookmakers certainly know what they are doing when close you down very hard to win on exchanges for never any money till close to the off, and all the value prices have long gone.
          What is frustrating this year is nearly every bet i put up is heavily backed but they are not winning.
          Todays bet strongly fancy won in class 2 before and last time out back in HC company running a fine 2nd to the heavily backed Royal Birth going down by a neck.
          Colin

    3. Follow yourself, Tim, Stewart and Nick.

      Elite Colin is getting there.

      Also, next week, follow Josh’s festival tips and his micro’s for smaller stakes.

      Keep up the good work.

      1. Hi Martin,
        You were at the London Racing preview last night? Any gooD ? first one I’ve missed in 10 years. Usually very enjoyable.

        1. I will post some notes when I get the chance. Phil Smith was good value now he is no longer chief handicapper and Maddy Playle was very good for a 21 year old. Matt Tombs said that Willie Mullins said that Laurina is the best horse he has ever trained!!!!!

  10. today’s selections.
    Sandown 2-25. Solomon Grey 11-1 (when i backed it early doors)
    Sandown 3-35. The Bay Birch 11-1
    both 1/2 pt ew
    Ayr 2-45. Another Mattie 9-2 1 pt win

  11. 1.50 Sandown, Before Midnight steps into handicaps for Hendo and Nico. It is a competitive race but at 10/1 in places we can take a chance at 1 point each way.

    2.25 Sandown, Benny’s Bridge has had some knockers in comments in various places but he has bottom weight and a turn of foot. His last race may have cut up and made his win look better than some think but at 8.1 i will go 1 point each way.

    Good luck.

  12. So this is bust or bust time…. haha
    This is the start of a crazy week where if we don`t remain focused for all of it we will lose the “edge” and be sat there looking into the bottom of our coffee / beer / insert whatever utensil for holding liquid in, wondering why didn`t i back that and why did i back this… Remember, go easy, there are another 361 days in the year, but, enjoy this feast of top class chasers / hurdlers and Uncle Tom Cobley and all!!
    Most of all enjoy the Craic that will bring us all together for this sporting occasion that in my eyes is like no other!! Good luck to one and all!
    Onto tomorrow / today’s.
    13:50 Sandown
    GOLDEN WHISKY 16/1 gen 1pt win
    Judging by the going out there today (Friday) you need horses that can win in soft as soft can get going, he really ran a bit green and I believe there is more to work on with this fella, 16/1 is way to big and I hope Sean Bowen will come cantering into it as Mr J O`Neill jnr did today on the one that beat my selection Magoo…
    BEFORE MIDNIGHT 10/1 gen 1 pt win
    Nico De Boinville /Nicky Hendo / Hurdler / Sandown what is not to like about that line up and with the horse liking a right handed track I think this one should be nearer the favourite than it is. Most of Hendos have been running on / off since the flu scare break etc, but, will now be at peak in preparation for next week. He may not be the best at the moment prize money wise, but, he will have his horses ready, you can guarantee that!

    14:25 Sandown
    DREAM DU GRAND VAL 15/2 gen 1pt win
    So, again, i go for a quick fire double hopefully for Messers De Boinville and Henderson, this horse is big and rangy and looks a fine hurdling prospect, by his own admission, Mr Henderson has said he has left a lot to work on and in this hurly burly race i feel he may have the best credentials!
    EXTRA MAG 9/1 gen 1pt win
    Now, those of us old enough to remember, will know that the Pipe / Scudamore combination in this race goes back to the start of racing on an old colour tv with Peter O`Sullivan commentating on how a plot was forming for the unique double between this and one of the hcp hurdles at Cheltenham the following week, this is no exception and is entered in two hcp hurdles the following week including the one that used to always be won by a Pipe horse the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle. we shall see, but, this horse does fit the bill and with Mr Tom in the saddle, we shall see..

    15:35 Sandown
    BOB MAHLER 9/1 gen 1pt win
    After looking at this race over and over again i finally decided on two of the mudlarks as i think the racing by this time will be run in a quagmire, his record in soft is two 3rds, three 2nds a win and a fifth, so, he has form on this going, just maybe not getting his head in front when needed, a worry, but, at 9/1 that worry has been inbuilt to the price.
    THE BAY BIRCH 11/1 1pt win
    Now the price is already dropping for this one, she should have come on for her last run as she absolutely ran them ragged, thinking the same here and 11/1 is too big for one that actually revels, form a bit like the above couple of 2nds and thirds with a win thrown in, at 11/1 i will take a chance and see how the coffers either fill or deplete after this race!!

    15:40 Gowran Park
    DOCTOR PHOENIX 13/2 gen 1pt win
    Another who will relish soft ground and even though this one is top weight he should quite happily give all that away and still give them a good trouncing into the bargain!! Just as his Engish counterpart Mr Henderson will do, so does Mr Elliott in Ireland, his horses will be ready and able to run a decent race wherever they are going!
    GOULANE CHOSEN 12/1 365 1pt win
    Donal McInerney is an up and coming jockey in Ireland and he is hopefully going to be using his claim to good effect here, he is a Course and Distance winner and coming back on ground he likes he should go close, 12/1 is too big for one who has been there, seen it done it.

    Phew… I am drained after that and it`s only the first big couple of races this week…
    As per usual, hope all jockeys and horses get home safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select this coming Saturday and the week ahead!

    1. AAARGH!! the cursed non runners… replace EXTRA MAG with MONSIEUR LE COQ at 5/1 he was short enough, but, some of the bookies have him as 3rd favourite, try for the 5/1 with some of them and have 1 pt win.

    2. Seemed a weird days racing that….Doctor Phoenix ran no sort of race and i wondered whether something was amiss, maybe my wheels have come off too, onward to tomorrow and the Leinster National. Pretty poor from me, apologies for those following me!? Bad day at the office….

  13. today’s selections.
    Sandown 2-25. Solomon Grey 11-1 (when i backed it early doors)
    Sandown 3-35. The Bay Birch 11-1
    both 1/2 pt ew
    Ayr 2-45. Another Mattie 9-2 1 pt win

  14. RECENT TIPS
    Daily AW
    W 2.05 – Third time Lucky on 1st run @ 10
    Festival
    S 2.25 – Our Merlin on 1st run @ 33
    Aw
    W 2.05 – Aquarium on 5th run @ 25
    3m+
    A 5.05 – Capard King on 7th run @ 4
    S 3.35 – Ami Desbois on 1st run @ 9/2
    ………..Favourito Bucks on 1st run @ 13/2
    G 4.50 – Thunder and Roses on 6th run @ 20
    GL

  15. RT -6 this month. Tt would have helped if I’d hit the Post Comment button yesterday on my desktop.

    Wrote the post and then went off and used my iPad for the rest of the day. The horse won of course.

    These two fit the profiles of long-priced winners from the trainers so I will speculate.

    Gowran Park 3.05 Power Sail 22/1

    Hereford 4.35 Envole Toi 18/1

  16. Today’s would be comp darts

    Sandown
    1:50 Before Midnight
    2:25 Storm rising

    Ayr
    2:45 Chanceanotherfive
    3:20 charmant

    Hereford
    2:50 Saintemilion

    Good luck

  17. One to boost the Cheltenham pot! Benny’s Bridge 14.25 Sandown 7/1 e/w – expect it to come late, low weight and should like the hill GL

  18. Well things are perking up here after what has been one of the dryest spells for me for a while. One this afternoon and one for sure later as there are no odds requirement to meet cos it’s the very first bet for the handicapped novices methodology I’ve been working on this past month or two. Is an all year round thing based on five years of data with the potential for 1000+ points over the next year. (Has happened twice during the test period). Is only flat turf and AW at the moment but hoping to develop something similar for hurdles over the summer for next years jumps.

    Back to this afternoon……
    Wolv’ 3.15 Island Of Life…….9.0

    Back at 4.30 with Kempton and will definitely be at least the one bet.

  19. Whilst recovering from my operation been going through some more of my old methods and another one like Elite is showing that time as not past it by.
    Do not back these for they are not proven only to me, so lets give it 3 months to see how it performs live.
    Take my word for the earlier bets this month where there as been 10 winners from 27 bets and SP prices were 11/2, 3/1, 2/1, 6/5, 11/4, 7/2, 11/4, 4/1, 6/1, 3/1 for a + 16.7 profit at SP only.
    Wolverhampton
    4.25 Corinthia Knight BOG 11/2
    Kempton
    6.30 Singing Sherriff BOG 9/2
    8.30 Glory Of Paris BOG 6/1
    DO NOT BACK give it 3 months to the end of May and see how it performs, there is a part two to this method and i will continue to record them myself, it as had 4 winners from 13 for + 5 points profit at SP.
    Both parts together this month 14 winners from 40 bets for + 21.7 points profit at SP.
    Colin

  20. 1.50 Sandown
    Before midnight ew
    2.05 wolverhampton
    EE
    2.25 Sandown
    Call me lord ew
    3.00 Sandown
    Silver forever ew
    3.15 wolverhampton
    Documenting ew
    3.35 Sandown
    Commodore ew

  21. RECENT TIPS
    Daily AW
    W 2.05 – Third time Lucky on 1st run @ 10
    Festival
    S 2.25 – Our Merlin on 1st run @ 33
    Aw
    W 2.05 – Aquarium on 5th run @ 25
    3m+
    A 5.05 – Capard King on 7th run @ 4
    S 3.35 – Ami Desbois on 1st run @ 9/2
    ………..Favourito Bucks on 1st run @ 13/2
    G 4.50 – Thunder and Roses on 6th run @ 20
    GL

  22. RT -6 this month. Tt would have helped if I’d hit the Post Comment button yesterday on my desktop.

    Wrote the post and then went off and used my iPad for the rest of the day. The horse won of course.

    These two fit the profiles of long-priced winners from the trainers so I will speculate.

    Gowran Park 3.05 Power Sail 22/1

    Hereford 4.35 Envole Toi 18/1

  23. Today’s would be comp darts

    Sandown
    1:50 Before Midnight
    2:25 Storm rising

    Ayr
    2:45 Chanceanotherfive
    3:20 charmant

    Hereford
    2:50 Saintemilion

    Good luck

  24. One to boost the Cheltenham pot! Benny’s Bridge 14.25 Sandown 7/1 e/w – expect it to come late, low weight and should like the hill GL

  25. Well things are perking up here after what has been one of the dryest spells for me for a while. One this afternoon and one for sure later as there are no odds requirement to meet cos it’s the very first bet for the handicapped novices methodology I’ve been working on this past month or two. Is an all year round thing based on five years of data with the potential for 1000+ points over the next year. (Has happened twice during the test period). Is only flat turf and AW at the moment but hoping to develop something similar for hurdles over the summer for next years jumps.

    Back to this afternoon……
    Wolv’ 3.15 Island Of Life…….9.0

    Back at 4.30 with Kempton and will definitely be at least the one bet.

    1. Tim
      Must say that the price figure is very difficult to back at times the other day 7.00 was the price just before the off went to the price of 7.00 clicked onto BFEX already set up and waiting for the click to bet came back market closed and they were not even off.
      Never liked price sensitive betting so look forward to your new method, just ordered a larger wheel barrow, for mine as only a couple of coins in the bottom at the moment.
      Good luck with your new method and thanks for sharing with us all.
      Cheers
      Colin

      1. Colin…. I know the figure isn’t always easy to get. I suggested on here a couple of weeks back that it’s only intended as a guide. The bets I’ve put up so far have returned well over 100% ROI so it’s not essential you get exactly the minimum, it just gives you something to aim that also gives you the comfort of knowing that you are getting the value as well as the tip. All tipsters should have to do this. A tip is worthless if the guy that gives it to you doesn’t tell you what he believes it’s worth.

        The methodology I’m using for the handicaps won’t work for the non handicapped races, these will have to remain the same. So I’ve not completely solved that problem. The reason being that using the tissue as an input appears to be ok when you have previous form to work with, but the tissue is of no use for horses that have yet to set foot on a racecourse or maybe just the one or two runs under their belt.

    2. Best of luck Tim. Sorry if I’ve missed this but when you put the odds next to the selection does that mean that’s the minimum odds you need to take? I’ve only just seen this post and when I’ve looked its currently 6.8 , does that mean it’s a no bet? Cheers.

      1. Hi Stan… Yes the bet won’t go on the record unless the BFSP is equal to or greater the odds I post. (See the post I wrote to Colin above this one). These new bets I’m posting alongside them are specifically for unexposed novices in Handicap races. So from now on if I post a horse as a bet, if it has a minimum price alongside it you need to follow it cos it’s not a handicap race, if it doesn’t then you are clear to just get the best price you can.

          1. Evening update….. only the one for tonight and it’s a HANDICAP so no minimum odds required you’re free to get whatever you consider to be a good price. I will record them to BFSP however if only for transparency, only difference being they all go on the record irrespective of the odds. As usual I’m advising caution along with all the usual bank stuff….. yada yada yada. Thinking that you can run both the normal bets and my new bets from the same bank is certainly not recommended and would be very naive. If you have to do it, halve your stake!

            7.00 Kemp’… Tenedos…………… HCP

            From the investigations I’ve carried out so far a lot of these bets seem to win without giving any clues, particularly at the longer odds. The methodology does not include Trainers or jockey/trainer combinations etc,etc, so when I look at them on paper there isn’t much to go on and most all of them don’t exactly slap me in the face. My strategy is to back them all for level stakes 1pt win only, but I guess EW could be considered for the longer odds shots. It’s up to you how you play.

  26. Whilst recovering from my operation been going through some more of my old methods and another one like Elite is showing that time as not past it by.
    Do not back these for they are not proven only to me, so lets give it 3 months to see how it performs live.
    Take my word for the earlier bets this month where there as been 10 winners from 27 bets and SP prices were 11/2, 3/1, 2/1, 6/5, 11/4, 7/2, 11/4, 4/1, 6/1, 3/1 for a + 16.7 profit at SP only.
    Wolverhampton
    4.25 Corinthia Knight BOG 11/2
    Kempton
    6.30 Singing Sherriff BOG 9/2
    8.30 Glory Of Paris BOG 6/1
    DO NOT BACK give it 3 months to the end of May and see how it performs, there is a part two to this method and i will continue to record them myself, it as had 4 winners from 13 for + 5 points profit at SP.
    Both parts together this month 14 winners from 40 bets for + 21.7 points profit at SP.
    Colin

  27. 1.50 Sandown
    Before midnight ew
    2.05 wolverhampton
    EE
    2.25 Sandown
    Call me lord ew
    3.00 Sandown
    Silver forever ew
    3.15 wolverhampton
    Documenting ew
    3.35 Sandown
    Commodore ew

  28. Im backing 2 at Kempton in the 7.30 simply on the basis of following a respected judge who I know from experience has a way of finding ridiculously big priced winners on the all weather. I dont have the reasoning, just the bets. If you are feeling in need of something to bet on this evening have a pound each way on Atletico 66/1 and Ultimate Avenue 20/1.

  29. Oh. Well that’s wasn’t very good. -6. Moving on, most backed which is half the battle but only that. Would appears Venetias was a good thing at 6s or so. Nearly given back Thursday’s profit. Damn. Tough afternoon. That will be it until Tuesday.

  30. Im backing 2 at Kempton in the 7.30 simply on the basis of following a respected judge who I know from experience has a way of finding ridiculously big priced winners on the all weather. I dont have the reasoning, just the bets. If you are feeling in need of something to bet on this evening have a pound each way on Atletico 66/1 and Ultimate Avenue 20/1.

  31. So this is bust or bust time…. haha
    This is the start of a crazy week where if we don`t remain focused for all of it we will lose the “edge” and be sat there looking into the bottom of our coffee / beer / insert whatever utensil for holding liquid in, wondering why didn`t i back that and why did i back this… Remember, go easy, there are another 361 days in the year, but, enjoy this feast of top class chasers / hurdlers and Uncle Tom Cobley and all!!
    Most of all enjoy the Craic that will bring us all together for this sporting occasion that in my eyes is like no other!! Good luck to one and all!
    Onto tomorrow / today’s.
    13:50 Sandown
    GOLDEN WHISKY 16/1 gen 1pt win
    Judging by the going out there today (Friday) you need horses that can win in soft as soft can get going, he really ran a bit green and I believe there is more to work on with this fella, 16/1 is way to big and I hope Sean Bowen will come cantering into it as Mr J O`Neill jnr did today on the one that beat my selection Magoo…
    BEFORE MIDNIGHT 10/1 gen 1 pt win
    Nico De Boinville /Nicky Hendo / Hurdler / Sandown what is not to like about that line up and with the horse liking a right handed track I think this one should be nearer the favourite than it is. Most of Hendos have been running on / off since the flu scare break etc, but, will now be at peak in preparation for next week. He may not be the best at the moment prize money wise, but, he will have his horses ready, you can guarantee that!

    14:25 Sandown
    DREAM DU GRAND VAL 15/2 gen 1pt win
    So, again, i go for a quick fire double hopefully for Messers De Boinville and Henderson, this horse is big and rangy and looks a fine hurdling prospect, by his own admission, Mr Henderson has said he has left a lot to work on and in this hurly burly race i feel he may have the best credentials!
    EXTRA MAG 9/1 gen 1pt win
    Now, those of us old enough to remember, will know that the Pipe / Scudamore combination in this race goes back to the start of racing on an old colour tv with Peter O`Sullivan commentating on how a plot was forming for the unique double between this and one of the hcp hurdles at Cheltenham the following week, this is no exception and is entered in two hcp hurdles the following week including the one that used to always be won by a Pipe horse the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle. we shall see, but, this horse does fit the bill and with Mr Tom in the saddle, we shall see..

    15:35 Sandown
    BOB MAHLER 9/1 gen 1pt win
    After looking at this race over and over again i finally decided on two of the mudlarks as i think the racing by this time will be run in a quagmire, his record in soft is two 3rds, three 2nds a win and a fifth, so, he has form on this going, just maybe not getting his head in front when needed, a worry, but, at 9/1 that worry has been inbuilt to the price.
    THE BAY BIRCH 11/1 1pt win
    Now the price is already dropping for this one, she should have come on for her last run as she absolutely ran them ragged, thinking the same here and 11/1 is too big for one that actually revels, form a bit like the above couple of 2nds and thirds with a win thrown in, at 11/1 i will take a chance and see how the coffers either fill or deplete after this race!!

    15:40 Gowran Park
    DOCTOR PHOENIX 13/2 gen 1pt win
    Another who will relish soft ground and even though this one is top weight he should quite happily give all that away and still give them a good trouncing into the bargain!! Just as his Engish counterpart Mr Henderson will do, so does Mr Elliott in Ireland, his horses will be ready and able to run a decent race wherever they are going!
    GOULANE CHOSEN 12/1 365 1pt win
    Donal McInerney is an up and coming jockey in Ireland and he is hopefully going to be using his claim to good effect here, he is a Course and Distance winner and coming back on ground he likes he should go close, 12/1 is too big for one who has been there, seen it done it.

    Phew… I am drained after that and it`s only the first big couple of races this week…
    As per usual, hope all jockeys and horses get home safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select this coming Saturday and the week ahead!

    1. AAARGH!! the cursed non runners… replace EXTRA MAG with MONSIEUR LE COQ at 5/1 he was short enough, but, some of the bookies have him as 3rd favourite, try for the 5/1 with some of them and have 1 pt win.

    2. Seemed a weird days racing that….Doctor Phoenix ran no sort of race and i wondered whether something was amiss, maybe my wheels have come off too, onward to tomorrow and the Leinster National. Pretty poor from me, apologies for those following me!? Bad day at the office….

  32. Oh. Well that’s wasn’t very good. -6. Moving on, most backed which is half the battle but only that. Would appears Venetias was a good thing at 6s or so. Nearly given back Thursday’s profit. Damn. Tough afternoon. That will be it until Tuesday.

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