1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs
2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)
3.Micro System Test Zone
4.Any general messages/updates etc
1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs
Chanceanotherfive (HcH) H3 13/2
Asking For Answers (all Hc’s) H3 I3 9/1 (S5 IF 11.00+ BFSP)
Blaydon (micro TJC) 12/1 S2
3.20 – Charmant (m dist) w2 H3 I3 G3 10/3 S4
Derriana Spirit (m runs) w1 w2 H1 I3 Evens
Talkofgold (all Hc’s) 25/1 S2A
Castaliera (HcH) G3 11/1 S1 S2
One For Harry (m runs) I3 12/1 S2 S5
Eternally Yours (HcH) w1 H3 I1 G1 6/1 S4 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)
Traditional Dancer (HcH) 14,30 G3 33/1 S1
5.05 – Glittering Love (m runs) w1 w2 H3 I1 13/8
One For Rosie (nov HcH) w1 10/1 S2
Muratello (nov HcH) H3 I1 22/1 S2A S5
Call Me Lord (HcH, m’s dist,going.age) w2 H1 I1 7/1
Dream On Grand Val (HcH, m’s dist,going,age) H3 I3 G3 7/1 S4 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)
Loose Chips (HcCh, m’s dist,going) 22/1 S2A
Salmanazar (m runs) H3 G3 I1 16/1 S1 S2A S4
4.45 – Duke Des Champs (m’s TJC,dist) 14 H3 G3 11/4
No stats profile
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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)
Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -5.9 )Best of Stats (29/153,68p, -1.2) Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 1/14,4p, -7)
5 tips below, 7 point outlay. That’s all for Saturday as of 08.55
#3 3.35 Sandown
Salmanazar – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)
Kansas City Chief – 1 point win – 11/1 (gen)
Big Race Tips
#1 2.25 Sandown
Call Me Lord – 1 point win – 8/1 (Lad/BetfS/PP/Boyle/888)
Solomon Grey – 1 point win – 14/1 NR
#2 1.50 Sandown
Russian Hawk – 1 point EW – 8/1 (bet365/WH) 15/2 (gen)
Trixster – 1 point EW – 16/1 (gen) (1/4, 4 gen, 1/5 5, WH 7 places 14s)
Call Me Lord – this one would be a stats buster of sorts but at 8s I wanted to have a go. He races here off top weight, as he did in this last year when going down close home, the front two miles clear. The winner that day raced wider, possibly on the better part of the track, and then carried him across the track to the rail. It was a brave effort. On only the 11th start of his life, and 8th in the UK, I think there’s every chance he’s even better than last year- well, on the figures he’s an 8lb better horse. He’s a winning machine, 5/10 in his career to date, unplaced just the twice, and he is just all class. No horse in the last 22 years has run in this rated higher than 152, so some of the stats have to be treated with caution. There are 4/5 places available in many places but as is my want i’ve gone on the nose. I don’t think he’ll be out of the places and whatever finishes ahead of him wins I think. This is a Grade 2, verging on a G1 horse in a handicap, one where there could still be more to come. He’s 3/4,4p at Sandown, this is his track, and I can only assume this has been the plan for the red hot Nicky Henderson team. On his final run last season he demolished a field of 150+ horses and made them look like trees. He returned at Ascot in the JLT hurdle over 24f where he was badly hampered early, had to come from further back than idea, travelled into it two out where he was carried violently to his right, probably losing 15+ lengths as the others were quickening up. He may have needed it also and may not have stayed. He seems to travel at the same pace whatever the trip and in this ground, with plenty of pace on paper to sit behind, he should go very well here- IF running his race/luck in running of course. I just had visions of one of those great handicap weight carrying performances and him demolishing this lot! At 8s i’ll pay to find out, but for those of you who prefer EW, I wouldn’t put you off. I can’t see him not placing here. I think he will run up to his mark, which means the rest have to find plenty, which some may do…
Solomon Grey – Non runner
Of the rest…well as always time for that clapped out RTP cliche – ‘i may not have mentioned the winner!’…
Monsieur Lecoq… I think he’s the right fav here and I wouldn’t put anyone off a saver say, if that’s your thing. I mean at 5s with 5 places, i’d be in total shock if he wasn’t near to the podium. He does feel the right price but he’s ever so progressive and may handle conditions better than some of the others around him in the market. Clearly track and trip are fine. What interested me is that the time of his win here LTO was near identical to the time of last year’s race, which Call Me Lord contested as above. It would indicate that he’s probably well handicapped still and he could be a graded horses in the making, who knows. He is inexperienced though especially for a big field like this and he’s had a break – he’ll be fit, but it’s not impossible he’s fresh/takes a pull, and that could cost him at the death. It could be nonsense of course but i’d have preferred Lizzy on. Chester is ok, but a race in these conditions, with this many runners etc, is a hard task for a 7lb claimer. That claim may help him scoot home but he’s been found in the market and I couldn’t tip him given I think he’s the right price, and I really need to stop dipping under 8/1 in these big Saturday handicaps. Were he 8s+ then he’d have been tipped, and i may have gone 3 handed.
I can leave Malaya at those odds, given she can take a tug, can hit a hurdle and I assume may be held up out the back, ridden cold. So she will need luck albeit on paper it’s hard not to anticipate a pace collapse here. She may travel like the winner but can be keen, and at 6s there just wasn’t enough there for me. I’d prefer the Williams horse for sure, who should race closer to the pace. In this going it’s always hard to make up ground from too far back, unless you’re chucked in/all class.
Dream Du Grand Val -he’s short enough given his best form in the UK/his improvement, appears to have come on a sounder surface and at this price I think you want a proven mudlark – he isn’t 14s. I have concerns over him getting home, and of course he needs to take a step forward I think, I’m not sure as to the level of his form as yet, but he’s clearly a nice horse in the making.
Benny’s Bridge is a danger- one of those at 8s, which has me on the fence a tad – i think he’s still well handicapped but this is a very deep race much deeper than LTO- that Chelt race fell apart a bit, they went hard and went too soon, and he received a decent ride cutting through them like a hot knife through butter (is anyone playing cliche bingo, full house soon :)) – he was ridden that way because he’s still keen but if he settles here off this pace (may ride him handier now he has experience) he could be a danger. He is out of the handicap and bottom/joint bottom weights haven’t won this in the last decade, and others have achieved more so far. Testing enough ground is a question for him also but I could see him slicing through them. I couldn’t be tempted in at 8s, and at the same price preferred the classier performer. I may have that wrong, but will cope with it.
Extra Mag is interesting because of connections and their record in this race but he’s hard to weigh up and everything above him in the market, and indeed a couple below, have achieved much more so far, yet are also open to improvement. It would be some performance to go from C4 novices to taking this race. Clearly one to track if he does!
First Flow… he’s interesting, i’ve no doubt he’s well handicapped, has class, and will relish conditions. And the yard are flying. But I’m not taking single figures in a race like this given it’s his first run for 361 days and he makes handicap debut, of which the stats could be better as per below. He can beat me at those odds and credit to Kim Bailey if he does.
I’ll be mildly surprised/bemused if something else takes this. I should mention Speredek who is on the stats shortlist at 20s. I know what happens now 🙂 Gulp. He’s been over fences for a while and given his crashing fall LTO this may be a run to boost his confidence. He isn’t going to get an easy lead here I don’t think, may not have the pace for this test over hurdles, and while his chase form is decent (but mainly in small fields), and he is well handicapped on that basis, his hurdles form before going chasing was only OK. I’d like to think one of the more progressive/lightly raced ones will have his measure here, but he may give it a good go from the front. He has nothing on his back with the 10lb claim and is maybe no forlorn hope to grab a place. I’ll be sitting in contemplative silence for 30 mins or so if he wins! (I think Chubnut fancies his chances at the price)
PACE… Totterdown / Our Merlin / Speredek all like to make all/push the pace hard. They don’t seem to know how to race any other way! I think this will be truly run. Monsieur Lecoq should track, as may First Flow and a few others, including Solomon Grey. Daryl may be more patient on mine but over this trip, given his class, I suspect he may have him just behind the pace, hopefully. Dream Du Grand Val made all LTO but i’d be surprised if they tried that again in this race.
So, that’s that. Happy with the picks at the prices and it would be welcome if one of them could fall in. We shall see if i’ve read them, and the dangers, correctly.
I spent a good chunk of my Friday evening watching the last couple of runs of every horse in this race- and sometimes I wonder why i’m still single! These two looked the most interesting/suited to this test I think and with 4 places to aim at i’ve gone EW which is rare for me, but baring an accident I thought both would be bang there…
Russian Hawk – it wasn’t lost on my that ‘Puppy’ is over here for just the one ride, especially given that Jessie has a handicap debutant at Gowran that he rode LTO (albeit it’s a mediocre race) and that’s he booked for two at Naas tomorrow. Trainer and jockey are 2/4,3p in hurdles at Sandown, Tizzard 5/23,10p with all hurdlers here in the last 2 years. The horse.. well he’s won over further at Exeter three starts back in what looked testing enough ground, and he did it under hands and heels from Diumede Des Mottes. It was a big field race and he runs like a stayer in the making – he could well be an RSA type next year, and maybe the next Elegant Escape or something! He’s since run twice at Ascot in small field, muddling affairs, on better ground. The pace etc really didn’t suit him, visibly outpaced twice turning for home but staying on in eye-catching enough fashion, not knocked about. That could happen again but in this big field, on what is a very testing hurdles track, I thought this may play to his strengths. He looks to be learning still, like most in here, but with enough experience already. He could be well handicapped off this mark and 9/10 winners of this were top 10 in the weights. I like Ascot form coming here as that’s a stiff climb to the line and rarely a bad race there. He’s yet to finish out of the top 3 in any race and he should be grinding away at the end here. It was noticeable yesterday that stayers came to the fore – Forza Milan is a 3 miler, and he powered away over 19f here yesterday, for example. Of those at the top of the market, 8, 9/1, he looked the most interesting to me – he looks the most dour stayer of the lot, and that’s what you’ll need here.
Trixster – how he is 16/1 is anyone’s guess and if he had a different trainer’s name next to him he’d be 10s< . He is ultra consistent (yet to be out the first 2 this season) , battle hardened, a mud lover, a stayer, a grinder and he’s tactically versatile – I think there’s a chance he tries to make all here. IF he’s a few lengths up turning for home he could well stay there. He’s been keen in a few of his races but must have some engine – he was staying on all the way to the line at Ascot LTO over 24f at Ascot, the front two miles clear, beaten by a progressive Nicholls’ horse. That was also a career best. Heavy ground holds no fears for him and if he runs his race i’m going to be shocked if he isn’t in the top 4 – that depends on me getting plenty of the other unexposed ones right in that I think plenty of them may find this all too much in conditions. This one is a solid jumper and a trier- he has a great head carriage under pressure and i should get a run for my money. His price is just wrong for one with this profile. The yard are going well also, 4/22, 9p in the last 14 days and this jockey knows him and looks decent enough – that 7lb off his back may count for plenty in these conditions, meaning he has 10-10 on his back in actual weight. A solid EW bet!
I could go through every other horse in this, but alas I don’t have the time, with a train to catch to the big smoke, but these are the two for me, given conditions. Clearly it’s packed with unexposed horses, many making handicap debut, and the likes of One For Rosie (ground concern), Third Wind, Garrettstown and Before Midnight are all interesting to some degree. Golden Whiskey should relish conditions and may grab a place but I thought there would be classier horses in this. Game on.
Salmanazar – it will be some party if this boy gets the job done given he’s also an S1, and an expensive race if he or the other one doesn’t prevail! Yes I know he’s 11 but it’s only the 8th chase run of his life. He’s had plenty of problems it would seem but they are getting a clear run at him now. A mark of 122 is starting to look tasty given his one chase win in Feb 15 at Exeter in the slop, came off 130. He went up to 140 after that and has some decent placed efforts over timber to his name off marks in the low 130s. He had 663 days off between April 16 and Jan 18. He probably isn’t as good as then but there’s been a lot to like about his two runs this season, especially LTO over CD. That came after 63 days off and it’s not impossible he needed it a tad. However he settled into a good position and jumped well, and he was staying on into 4th, beaten 11 lengths. That was a decent race with the 3 in front all ultra progressive. I don’t think this race is any stronger actually. He was unfancied that day, 20/1, so it will be interesting to see if he’s clipped in 12s<. He returns 22 days later here which I like, he has course form, and the trainer does well here. There’s a fair bit of pace on paper in this and if he can just sit off it,and pop away, he could sweep past as they all fall in a hole. He is a dour stayer who likes the mud and it did look testing enough yesterday, albeit the chase track is riding better than the hurdles. He looked overpriced here.
Kansas City – as does this one, who ran in the same Sandown chase LTO. He seemed to handle the track well and that was after a 50 day break when the yard were yet to fire. It’s fair to say they are in form now – 8/28, 11p in the last 14 days, trainer and jockey are 5/8 in the last 14. He ran well to a point in that race, still going ok after 4 out, before then seemingly getting tired on what was only the second chase start of the season, his first in the Welsh National. I thought it was eye catching to a point and he is starting to look well handicapped. Yes he’s 10 but again, lightly raced, only his 8th handicap chase. Some of his Irish form was decent – he ran a fine second in the Killarney National in May 17 off this mark, beaten by a horse called Auvergnat who recently won the big Leopardstown handicap chase, and may go ok in the X Country next week, into a place. If he repeats that run he’d be bang there. Hopefully Scu rides him a bit closer now, and again he was unfancied LTO. Again I thought he was overpriced.
I was happy to take on the rest at the prices. Venetia’s is interesting but this is a much deeper race and Charlie is at Hereford. He’s had a break, it’s his first chase
LH RH, and first go around here. He also won’t get an easy lead. He was the right price. As is Ami Desbois who I tipped LTO at bigger odds, was well backed, and only just got beat. He got outstayed there and has yet to win over 3m over fences- he also has 15lb more in actual weight on his back, and he doesn’t look the biggest. That was a hard race LTO also. It’s a drop in class but he’s not overpriced.
I couldn’t have the rest. I thought Favorito Bucks needs better ground and in any case he’s not overpriced,but clearly a danger given connections. Bob Mahler needs to step up and has a question going RH – he jumped out to his left at Kempton and it’s his first run here. He jumped poorly at Ascot also. Not for me at 8s. I don’t think The Bay Birch will get home around here in this ground and it’s such a deeper race than LTO. She’s also usually held up cold, so not for me. The TT did make a massive difference though and maybe that has transformed her staying abilities, and she did plug on over 22f at Newbury. But I have my doubts, and again, first chase run here. Horatio H is an exposed 11 year old and this is deeper than this race last year, where he ran with credit. Happy to leave at 8s. There’s not many left I haven’t mentioned but I can’t have them.
There are 3/4 who will get on with it here but hopefully my two will challenge after the pond fence and I can dream of them both battling it out after the last!
That’s the lot for today. Best of luck.
3.Micro System Test Zone
A Dunn (25/1< guide)
4.35 H – Envole Toi 18/1
4.15 G – Sizing Joshua 100/1 (That’s a 10 point job! ahem :))
Irish Raiders (16/1< guide)
3.55 A – Liffeydale Dreamer 5/1
D McCain (14/1< guide)
2.25 S – Chti Balko 33/1
4.30 A – Uppertown Prince 6/1
Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)
1.50 S – Champagne Well 16/1
2.25 S – Bennys Bridge 8/1
Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19
Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)
5.05 A – Strong Resemblance 9/2
LTO winning trainers
1.50 S – Golden Whiskey 18/1
3.35 S – The Bay Birch 11/1
2.50 H – Skewiff 11/2
Trainers to follow
5.35 A – Sidi Ismael 7/1
4.45 S – Lord Bryan (9/1< best) 10/3
3.35 S – The Bay Birch 11/1 (16/1<)
Handicap Chase System Starting Points
4.00 H – Northern Beau 9/2 / Top And Drop 9/4
Adam Norman’s Little Black Book
3.20 A – Saint Leo 9/2 / Treshnish 6/1
4.30 A – Silva Eclipse 15/2
4.15 Gow – The Big Galloper 25/1
4.35 H – Elixir Du Gouet 8/1
1.50 S – Garrettstown 9/1
4.Any general messages/updates etc
NEW! Chelt Festival Week ‘Master Post’ : HERE>>>
(inc the stats pack, approach to week, betting bank advice, tipping comp rules)
Saturday Big Race Stats/Trends/Shortlist
Only one trends race this Saturday…
2.25 Sandown: Imperial Cup
10/10 had 1-2 hurdle wins (0/78,12p outside this)
10/10 aged 8 or younger
- 4: 0/4,1p
- 9+ : 0/16, 1p
10/10 carried 11-2 or less exc claims
- 11-3+ : 0/44, 9p (11-12 – 0/10,5p)
10/10 – class move: Same or UP 3 classes max (outside this: 0/43,6p)
9/10 sent off 20/1 or shorter SP
9/10 had 2-5 runs this season (1/50, 7p outside this)
9/10 ran in a handicap LTO (Non handicap: 1/54, 8p)
- Novice hurdle or non handicap ‘hurdle’ (graded): 0/44, 6p)
8/10 had 3-8 hurdle runs
7/10 had 1-2 handicap hurdle runs (7/39, 13p, +87 BFSP)
6/10 were Irish Bred (6/60, 13p)
- GB: 3/70, 10p
- Fr: 1/47, 12p
- 0 handicap runs: 0/24, 4p
- 0 handicap hurdle runs: 0/37, 6p
- 3+ handicap hurdle wins: 0/17, 2p
- 5+7lb claiming jocks: 0/29, 3p
- Ran in race worth 4k or less LTO: 0/28, 4p
- Chelt: 2/12, 5p
- Newb: 2/33, 9p
- X1: Lud / Sand/Hunt/Kemp/Ascot/Newc
Trainers (22 years)
- Team Pipe : 7/39, 16p (Martin 4/22, David 3/17)
- NTD: 2/6, 2p
- X1: C Longsdon/ L Mongan/Dr Newland/I Williams/L Wadham/ N Henderson/P Hobbs/P Webber/ A L T Moore
Stats Shortlist… well thanks to HRB new 48 declarations….
The 4x 10/10 stats leave…
- Monsieur Lecoq – 5/1
- Dream Du Grandval – 7/1
- Malaya – 6/1
- Bennys Bridge – 8/1
- Solomon Grey – 14/1
- Speredek – 20/1
(two more with 1-2 hurdle wins only…so all those with 1-2 hurdle runs.. list above + Pyomaniac / All Yours)
The 9/10 and 8/10 stats leave 4 (8/36 runners, 12p last decade)… Monsieur Lecoq / Malaya / Bennys Bridge / Solomon Grey
The two with 1-2 handicap hurdle
wins RUNS (the 7/10 stat above)… Monsieur Lecoq / Bennys Bridge
Do with that as you please! 🙂