Members Daily Post: 08/03/19 (Imperial Tipsx2/complete)

SAT Tips x2, Section 1 (complete), test zone, Sat stats/trends/shortlist

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

 

Leicester

3.25 – Bally Lagan  (all Hc’s) G1 12/1 S1 S2  2nd, 16/1 (painful, thought game over, great ride by Jack, and on winner. Damn!) 

4.30 – Dontminddboys  (all Hc’s) H3 G1 11/2  UP

 

Sandown

3.05 –

Dan McGrue   (micro runs)  14,30 w2 12/1 S2 3rd 

Pistol Whipped   (HcH, m’s going snd Hcdeb) 14,30 w1 H1 I3 G1 15/8 S4 UP

Magoo   (m runs) 14,30 11/2 2nd 

4.45 –

Its Got Legs   (nov HcH) H1 I3 7/1  UP

Gleno   (nov HcH)  w1 H3 G3 13/8  WON 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -5.9 )Best of Stats (29/153,68p, -1.2) Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 1/14,4p, -7)

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No tips on Friday.

Big Race Tips

SATURDAY 

2.25 Sandown 

Call Me Lord – 1 point win – 8/1 (Lad/BetfS/PP/Boyle/888)

Solomon Grey – 1 point win – 14/1 (Bet365/SkyB/BV/Uni Bet/888)

as of 12.58 Friday, write up on the way…

Call Me Lord – this one would be a stats buster of sorts but at 8s I wanted to have a go. He races here off top weight, as he did in this last year when going down close home, the front two miles clear. The winner that day raced wider, possibly on the better part of the track, and then carried him across the track to the rail. It was a brave effort. On only the 11th start of his life, and 8th in the UK, I think there’s every chance he’s even better than last year- well, on the figures he’s an 8lb better horse. He’s a winning machine, 5/10 in his career to date, unplaced just the twice, and he is just all class. No horse in the last 22 years has run in this rated higher than 152, so some of the stats have to be treated with caution. There are 4/5 places available in many places but as is my want i’ve gone on the nose. I don’t think he’ll be out of the places and whatever finishes ahead of him wins I think. This is a Grade 2, verging on a G1 horse in a handicap, one where there could still be more to come. He’s 3/4,4p at Sandown, this is his track, and I can only assume this has been the plan for the red hot Nicky Henderson team. On his final run last season he demolished a field of 150+ horses and made them look like trees. He returned at Ascot in the JLT hurdle over 24f where he was badly hampered early, had to come from further back than idea, travelled into it two out where he was carried violently to his right, probably losing 15+ lengths as the others were quickening up. He may have needed it also and may not have stayed. He seems to travel at the same pace whatever the trip and in this ground, with plenty of pace on paper to sit behind, he should go very well here- IF running his race/luck in running of course. I just had visions of one of those great handicap weight carrying performances and him demolishing this lot! At 8s i’ll pay to find out, but for those of you who prefer EW, I wouldn’t put you off. I can’t see him not placing here. I think he will run up to his mark, which means the rest have to find plenty, which some may do…

Solomon Grey – one from the stats/trends shortlist and he’s the one I like most at the prices. I do have a concern about the ground, which will be very testing I think. Connections have always made noises that they think he’s best on decent ground, but a couple of his best runs have been on soft – and at 14s I was happy to pay to find out. Because of that going doubt I don’t think he’s an EW option – if he handles it he should be bang there, if he doesn’t then he isn’t getting home. He is lightly raced and the yard enjoy targeting decent handicap hurdles. He ran well in The Lanzarote when last seen, where i tipped him (to win only of course!), just outpaced by one after the last, but he kept on. Lord Napier was behind him that day and he’s since hacked up in a decent handicap and the form, as it often does in that race, has a solid feel about it. In his novice days he was chasing home If The Cap Fits who’s now rated 155 and went close in the G2 National Spirit at Fontwell recently. I’ve no doubt this one will show himself to be well handicapped at some point soon, it’s just a question of when – it could be he’s one for Aintree or Ayr on better ground- maybe he’ll be their Scottish Champion Hurdle horse, a handicap they’ve done well in from memory.  He’s a strong travelling sort who clearly stays further, no bad thing here, but has plenty of pace to aim at. The early skirmishes will prove telling but if he’s travelling well, with Harry back on, then he should play a part up the straight. 14s was just big enough to tempt be in. Given the ground niggle I wouldn’t have touched him at single figure odds I don’t think.

Of the rest…well as always time for that clapped out RTP cliche – ‘i may not have mentioned the winner!’…

Monsieur Lecoq… I think he’s the right fav here and I wouldn’t put anyone off a saver say, if that’s your thing. I mean at 5s with 5 places, i’d be in total shock if he wasn’t near to the podium. He does feel the right price but he’s ever so progressive and may handle conditions better than some of the others around him in the market. Clearly track and trip are fine. What interested me is that the time of his win here LTO was near identical to the time of last year’s race, which Call Me Lord contested as above. It would indicate that he’s probably well handicapped still and he could be a graded horses in the making, who knows. He is inexperienced though especially for a big field like this and he’s had a break – he’ll be fit, but it’s not impossible he’s fresh/takes a pull, and that could cost him at the death. It could be nonsense of course but i’d have preferred Lizzy on. Chester is ok, but a race in these conditions, with this many runners etc, is a hard task for a 7lb claimer. That claim may help him scoot home but he’s been found in the market and I couldn’t tip him given I think he’s the right price, and I really need to stop dipping under 8/1 in these big Saturday handicaps. Were he 8s+ then he’d have been tipped, and i may have gone 3 handed. 

I can leave Malaya at those odds, given she can take a tug, can hit a hurdle and I assume may be held up out the back, ridden cold. So she will need luck albeit on paper it’s hard not to anticipate a pace collapse here. She may travel like the winner but can be keen, and at 6s there just wasn’t enough there for me. I’d prefer the Williams horse for sure, who should race closer to the pace. In this going it’s always hard to make up ground from too far back, unless you’re chucked in/all class.

Dream Du Grand Val  -he’s short enough given his best form in the UK/his improvement, appears to have come on a sounder surface and at this price I think you want a proven mudlark – he isn’t 14s. I have concerns over him getting home, and of course he needs to take a step forward I think, I’m not sure as to the level of his form as yet, but he’s clearly a nice horse in the making.

Benny’s Bridge is a danger- one of those at 8s, which has me on the fence a tad – i think he’s still well handicapped but this is a very deep race much deeper than LTO- that Chelt race fell apart a bit, they went hard and went too soon, and he received a decent ride cutting through them like a hot knife through butter (is anyone playing cliche bingo, full house soon :)) – he was ridden that way because he’s still keen but if he settles here off this pace (may ride him handier now he has experience) he could be a danger. He is out of the handicap and bottom/joint bottom weights haven’t won this in the last decade, and others have achieved more so far. Testing enough ground is a question for him also but I could see him slicing through them. I couldn’t be tempted in at 8s, and at the same price preferred the classier performer. I may have that wrong, but will cope with it.

Extra Mag is interesting because of connections and their record in this race but he’s hard to weigh up and everything above him in the market, and indeed a couple below, have achieved much more so far, yet are also open to improvement. It would be some performance to go from C4 novices to taking this race. Clearly one to track if he does!

First Flow… he’s interesting, i’ve no doubt he’s well handicapped, has class, and will relish conditions. And the yard are flying. But I’m not taking single figures in a race like this given it’s his first run for 361 days and he makes handicap debut, of which the stats could be better as per below. He can beat me at those odds and credit to Kim Bailey if he does.

I’ll be mildly surprised/bemused if something else takes this. I should mention Speredek who is on the stats shortlist at 20s. I know what happens now 🙂 Gulp. He’s been over fences for a while and given his crashing fall LTO this may be a run to boost his confidence. He isn’t going to get an easy lead here I don’t think, may not have the pace for this test over hurdles, and while his chase form is decent (but mainly in small fields), and he is well handicapped on that basis, his hurdles form before going chasing was only OK. I’d like to think one of the more progressive/lightly raced ones will have his measure here, but he may give it a good go from the front. He has nothing on his back with the 10lb claim and is maybe no forlorn hope to grab a place. I’ll be sitting in contemplative silence for 30 mins or so if he wins! (I think Chubnut fancies his chances at the price)

PACE… Totterdown / Our Merlin / Speredek all like to make all/push the pace hard. They don’t seem to know how to race any other way! I think this will be truly run. Monsieur Lecoq should track, as may First Flow and a few others, including Solomon Grey. Daryl may be more patient on mine but over this trip, given his class, I suspect he may have him just behind the pace, hopefully. Dream Du Grand Val made all LTO but i’d be surprised if they tried that again in this race.

So, that’s that. Happy with the picks at the prices and it would be welcome if one of them could fall in. We shall see if i’ve read them, and the dangers, correctly.

That will probably be it for Sat big race tips, but any more will likely be confirmed Sat morning.

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.50 L – Quantum Of Solace 2/1

A Dunn (28/1< guide)

4.10 S- Swift Crusador 13/2

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Trainers to follow

3.05 S – Full Irish 20/1

Jockeys/Chasers

3.25 L – The Captain (9/1< best) 5/2

4.10 S – Rock On Rocky (16/1<) 7/1

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

2.50 L – Quantum of Solace 2/1

4.30 L – Waitinonasunnyday 2/1

Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

3.05 S – Sussex Ranger 16/1

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW! Chelt Festival Week ‘Master Post’ : HERE>>>

(inc the stats pack, approach to week, betting bank advice, tipping comp rules) 

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Saturday Big Race Stats/Trends/Shortlist

Only one trends race this Saturday…

2.25 Sandown: Imperial Cup

10/190, 37p

10/10 had 1-2 hurdle wins (0/78,12p outside this)

10/10 aged 8 or younger

  • 4: 0/4,1p
  • 9+ : 0/16, 1p

10/10 carried 11-2 or less exc claims

  • 11-3+ : 0/44, 9p (11-12 – 0/10,5p)

10/10 – class move: Same or UP 3 classes max (outside this: 0/43,6p)

9/10 sent off 20/1 or shorter SP

9/10 had 2-5 runs this season (1/50, 7p outside this)

9/10 ran in a handicap LTO (Non handicap: 1/54, 8p)

  • Novice hurdle or non handicap ‘hurdle’ (graded): 0/44, 6p)

8/10 had 3-8 hurdle runs

7/10 had 1-2 handicap hurdle runs (7/39, 13p, +87 BFSP)

6/10 were Irish Bred (6/60, 13p)

  • GB: 3/70, 10p
  • Fr: 1/47, 12p

Other

  • 0 handicap runs: 0/24, 4p
  • 0 handicap hurdle runs: 0/37, 6p
  • 3+ handicap hurdle wins: 0/17, 2p
  • 5+7lb claiming jocks: 0/29, 3p
  • Ran in race worth 4k or less LTO: 0/28, 4p

Track LTO

  • Chelt: 2/12, 5p
  • Newb: 2/33, 9p
  • X1: Lud / Sand/Hunt/Kemp/Ascot/Newc

Trainers (22 years)

  • Team Pipe : 7/39, 16p (Martin 4/22, David 3/17)
  • NTD: 2/6, 2p
  • X1: C Longsdon/ L Mongan/Dr Newland/I Williams/L Wadham/ N Henderson/P Hobbs/P Webber/ A L T Moore

 

Stats Shortlist… well thanks to HRB new 48 declarations….

The 4x 10/10 stats leave…

  • Monsieur Lecoq – 5/1 
  • Dream Du Grandval – 7/1 
  • Malaya – 6/1 
  • Bennys Bridge – 8/1 
  • Solomon Grey – 14/1 
  • Speredek – 20/1 

(two more with 1-2 hurdle wins only…so all those with 1-2 hurdle runs.. list above + Pyomaniac / All Yours)

The 9/10 and 8/10 stats leave 4 (8/36 runners, 12p last decade)… Monsieur Lecoq / Malaya / Bennys Bridge / Solomon Grey

The two with 1-2 handicap hurdle wins RUNS (the 7/10 stat above)… Monsieur Lecoq / Bennys Bridge

Do with that as you please! 🙂

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

89 Responses

  1. FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +73.48

    No bets

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT +4.82

    4.10 S – Lickpenny Larry (But only if <9/1 near the off on Betfair – looking unlikely at the moment so unless you are committed to tracking the market, I would leave it)

  2. If any members done Mans Not Trot with paddys .They gave me my 60 pounds back with a free bet .Just in case anyone got a bet slip from them .

  3. Systems selection – Emma Lavelle handicapper at 5/1+.

    3.05 Sandown, Full Irish at 16/1, 1/2 point each way.

  4. FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +73.48

    No bets

    HANDICAP CHASE BETS
    RT +4.82

    4.10 S – Lickpenny Larry (But only if <9/1 near the off on Betfair – looking unlikely at the moment so unless you are committed to tracking the market, I would leave it)

  5. If any members done Mans Not Trot with paddys .They gave me my 60 pounds back with a free bet .Just in case anyone got a bet slip from them .

          1. Surprising I thought they wud do the same mate .Meant to be same firm. BTW .I owe you a few drinks mate .Your system bets been great so far .

          2. No worries mate! They make up their own rules that lot. Been withdrawing the minimum bet GUARANTEE from some punters I gather.

          3. I mostly use the shops or my paddys APP .I can still get on with the sports book on just now though .Not has a winner from them yet though .

  6. today’s selections.
    Sandown.
    3-40. Rathlin Rose 7-1
    4-10. Swift Crusador 8-1
    4-45. Mazalto 14-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

  7. with insomnia rearing it’s ugly head once again thought i would have another look at 1st race each day at Cheltenham for some value bets using skybets money back offer.
    Day 1. Rouge Vif 25-1
    Day 2. can’t find a biggie, i really like the chances of Battleoverdoyen 4-1 but Birchdale 10-1 could be better value.
    Day 3. Voix Du Reve 16-1, Castefoire 25-1
    Day 4. Surin 25-1, French Maid 33-1

    my son has a skybet account he only really uses for footy bets so will stick a £20 bet on so i could do 2 in each, can’t find another that really takes my fancy on Day 1 any ideas ?

    1. hmmm… I mean while it’s a free bet and you want to have something at a price, I think there are better options than Rouge V in the Supreme, to my dodgy G1 novice eyes anyway! I’d be surprised if top 4 don’t win, but Aramon or Vision D’honneur (esp if soft) look better options, but it’s your free bet!
      Day 2 and the Ballymore… well that’s all about battleoverdoyen… and Sam’s Profile for Mouse… who i’ve already had a nibble on at 16s EW 🙂 If you like the former, given how their form ties in, you have to give him a squeak (ahem). Just my thoughts, mainly from collating all the positive noises from the previews i’ve collated etc.

    2. I am on Elixir De Nutz at 14/1 and Champagne Platinum at 40/1. I do not like Al Dancer at the price. I will have a go on the day with another one. Fakir etc also looks to need to improve. Does Thomas Darby go in this? Could go well? Apologies, I have not had time to check the updated declarations yet.

      When I get time I will post up some notes form the London racing Club preview evening.

  8. Systems selection – Emma Lavelle handicapper at 5/1+.

    3.05 Sandown, Full Irish at 16/1, 1/2 point each way.

  9. today’s selections.
    Sandown.
    3-40. Rathlin Rose 7-1
    4-10. Swift Crusador 8-1
    4-45. Mazalto 14-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

  10. Morning,

    15:05 Sandown
    MAGOO 6/1 gen 1pt win
    Really just for the Nicholls factor this one, he is firing in anything and everything at the moment and with the jockey taking 7lb off here, he is thrown in on old form. 7/1 for a Nicholls runner is value atm, only worry is recent form, but, like i said when your winning everything and anything..plus, we all love a grey…
    SUSSEX RANGER 14/1 1pt e/w
    this one was progressing till it`s last run and if back to that form would romp all over all of these, hopefully after all the tinkering of taking headgear off, putting it on etc has now helped work out what is best for him, with his weight which may hinder him, am putting him up each way just in case.
    15:40 Sandown
    MR MERCURIAL 4/1 gen 1pt win
    Well don`t normally bother in these races as i always feel it is a bit of the old boys club horse racing, letting one of them get an early lead and the others then close in, just my opinion being an ex squaddie… This one and my other selection are the best on form i felt that a good dutch on the 2 for a return with one of them winning was too easy to miss..He does like sticking his head in front and may be hard to pass once he gets there, which is just what i like in a horse!!
    LE REVE 4/1 gen 1pt win
    This one loves soft going and with the handicapper finally giving him a chance last time out I`m hoping that will have stirred his will to win into action and he can follow up here! They have been very patient with him and he is a bit of a monkey, but, like i said lto win may have got the horse focussed!
    Now, I know both of these are short and like Josh has said to me in the past(and I agree), even 4/1 is value, so, apologies for those who know that 4/1 is my minimum bet and normally i wouldn`t bother, my reasoning is this.. If one of them wins I ma then in profit, yes, if the they both lose I`m out of pocket, but, isn`t taking the risk and gaining profit what this game is all about?

    As usual hope all the jockeys and horses come back safe and sound today and good luck with whatever your selections are today…damn the 7/1 on Nicholls horse has now gone, 6`s is still value, so, lump on..

  11. Today’s Would be comp darts

    Sandown
    2:00 Champagne poppy
    3:05 Dan McGrue

    Leicester
    2:20 Cobra De mai

    Newcastle
    5:55 Platinum Coast

    Dundalk
    7:45 Park Row

    Good luck

    Good luck

  12. Hi all, my three for today.

    SANDOWN 15:05 SUBCONTINENT @ 11.00
    SANDOWN 16:10 ROCK ON ROCKY @ 9.00
    NEWCASTLE 19:30 KLIPPERTY KLOPP @ 8.00

    Still on a poor run !! 1/15 2p

    G.L.
    Solent

  13. with insomnia rearing it’s ugly head once again thought i would have another look at 1st race each day at Cheltenham for some value bets using skybets money back offer.
    Day 1. Rouge Vif 25-1
    Day 2. can’t find a biggie, i really like the chances of Battleoverdoyen 4-1 but Birchdale 10-1 could be better value.
    Day 3. Voix Du Reve 16-1, Castefoire 25-1
    Day 4. Surin 25-1, French Maid 33-1

    my son has a skybet account he only really uses for footy bets so will stick a £20 bet on so i could do 2 in each, can’t find another that really takes my fancy on Day 1 any ideas ?

    1. hmmm… I mean while it’s a free bet and you want to have something at a price, I think there are better options than Rouge V in the Supreme, to my dodgy G1 novice eyes anyway! I’d be surprised if top 4 don’t win, but Aramon or Vision D’honneur (esp if soft) look better options, but it’s your free bet!
      Day 2 and the Ballymore… well that’s all about battleoverdoyen… and Sam’s Profile for Mouse… who i’ve already had a nibble on at 16s EW 🙂 If you like the former, given how their form ties in, you have to give him a squeak (ahem). Just my thoughts, mainly from collating all the positive noises from the previews i’ve collated etc.

        1. yea i’d be tended to agree, of the top 4 in the market he’d be the one for me I think, esp with the allowance. He’s hardy for his age.

    2. I am on Elixir De Nutz at 14/1 and Champagne Platinum at 40/1. I do not like Al Dancer at the price. I will have a go on the day with another one. Fakir etc also looks to need to improve. Does Thomas Darby go in this? Could go well? Apologies, I have not had time to check the updated declarations yet.

      When I get time I will post up some notes form the London racing Club preview evening.

  14. RECENT TIPS
    Daily AW
    L 2.40 – Maazel on 6th run @ 16
    3m+
    S 3.40 – Royal Palladium on 5th run @ 22
    ………..Vieux Lille on 6th run @ 18
    L 4.30 – Solid Strike on 4th run @ 16
    GL

  15. Nordic Combined Sandown 15:05 1pt e/w-12/1-The price of this one compared to the favourite makes no sense consider he beat him at Newbury and is 1lb better off. He ran 4 good races in novice hurdle races most of which have worked out fairly well before getting chucked in at the deep end in the Betfair Hurdle on handicap debut. He hated the new headgear (not a surprise as has hated anything he has worn in his career) which comes-off here. He drops back from a Grade 3 to a class 3 and looks to have been crying out for this step up in trip. He has shown he has no issues with heavy ground so that won’t be a problem either. I’ll count it officially as 3 but try and use Hills who are paying a silly 5 places in a 10 runner race!

    Its Got Legs Sandown 16:45 1pt e/w-We backed this one LTO when he was smashed in from 10/1 to 10/3 and really should have won his race before throwing it away. Another who has some excellent novice form particularly the one in October where he was less than a length behind Glen Forsa and ahead of Crooks Peak and Rouge Vif who are all 130-150 animals now so fairly confident its a case of when he will be winning off his current mark.

    1. Welcome back or buenos dias mes amigo.

      Unfortunately while you were away you were replaced by a Chinese robot, ‘Yu Pick Rell’.

    2. Welcome back Nick – hope you had a great time. No disrespect to the other guys but using a Footie analogy its rather like we suddenly have Lionel Messi returning to the starting line up after injury, and just before Cheltenham. 🙂

      1. John
        A very bold statement, since Josh introduced the tipping competition in Feb amazed at the outstanding quality of those who put up their tips, George B who i won £1109.25 for £20 stakes from BFEX, my old mucker Chubnut who in Mar has had 6 bets and using £20 per point he has won me £411.77, Warren, Francis Stewart and many more, and even on the Freepost we have Dee who i am looking forward to his Cheltenham bets.
        Colins bets very poor run at the moment
        Elite bets system based only Jan and Feb winning months and Mar is in profit.
        Josh stopped backing him couple of months ago will look at the Festival tips.
        Nick Mazur reduced my stake on his bets hopefully will be upping the stake again in time.
        Anyone tipping will always at some time have a poor run, and it does not matter who it is.
        Football term Team game and boy do we have team players on RTP, with my poor run others are keeping my banks afloat and a special thanks to them all.
        Colin.
        PS do not put all your eggs in one basket!!!

        1. All good stuff, and i guess with hind sight the Messi analogy was wrong choice 🙂 You are all right in terms of the excellent performances of many of the others – but with being new i am only aware of 12 month records for Nick, Colin and Josh. I m still well minus in my betting Banks over the 3 months since starting – as well know you just cant follow everyone! Should be interesting to see how they all perform relatively over the next 12 months – the long term acid tests. Should be really exciting 🙂

        2. Colin,
          a couple of points…

          Well done for backing George tips/system selections in Feb, but I wouldn’t have advised to diving in at that amount given i’d no idea how he would get on! Didn’t exactly have much to go on, historically, and he changed his approach a bit for the comp/refined his picks, and well done to him – but you could have easily lost 30 points given SR /odds etc, with no historical basis to go on?? Same with Warren, who again has done very well and on way to proving to be an astute tipster.
          Stewart – it’s fair to say that over sticks, since Nov, the evidence is now there that he knows his onions, as does Tim, and his results have mirrored his own personal success – and i’ll take his word on that.
          It’s very dangerous to dive into some approaches not proven in live play, including your Elite bets – I don’t follow those.
          Same with Francis – his system is clearly well researched and on paper, had done very well through said research, before he’s now been posting live for a few months – but again, right at the start, it was hard to dive in with any confidence – and after the run they have been on they’re due a dip , which i’m conscious of, and now may be wrong time to dive in, but if starting following early then well done.

          How the hell have you dropped stakes on Nick?? I assume you raised them just as he hit his wobble run, which still isn’t that bad. Surely if you had a bank etc and had built up X profit, you raise in line with that, and stick to it, or you raised too quickly? Always lessons for us all haha.

          I can’t expect new people, or even me, to dive in systematically backing X approaches without live historical evidence – i ballsed up with W1 there, but the starter advice is better now, more streamlined etc.

          Those figures mentioned are all very good if you have the faith, the banks etc, but I wouldn’t have expected John say, to dive into following X – he started with too many at the start, by his own admission, inc some of yours, and lost plenty – it will be fine in long run, but as always it’s a tricky balance and building up over time, working out who to bring into a portfolio as and when results materialise, and/or who to dip into etc.

          Anyway, just my thoughts, while some of those figures are great, the alternative if diving in with too much too soon, is much worse if starting on a bad run etc 🙂
          Josh

          p.s no free posts during Festival week.

          1. Josh
            Know where you are coming from remember i cannot back with bookmakers and can only back Nicks win only on BFSPEX and for a period of time he has not had a good run of winners only,and they lost in Jan and Feb, so decided to make a smaller bank and use some of the money in different areas, Stewart proven his for a fair time and deep down i am a stats man so delighted to see Francis doing so well and George been messing around with his stats on and off for a while did not back all his bets and missed out on a 20/1 winner and another double figure winner.
            Elite bets said in November that backed them for years and then stopped,then started watching them for the past couple of years and in October decided to back them again myself, so they have been proven and again they are stats based, they are easier to find via the computer now, and that is the reason gone back to backing them.
            Dee on the freepost is one that i will be keeping a close eye on if he puts up any bets at Cheltenham, very impressed with his bets in Dec, he did not put any up in Jan but in Feb he had 3 betting days 3 winners from 18 at SP 4/1, 12/1 and 9/2, did record his Dec bets and he was about 35 points up, threw them away for no bets in Jan thought he had gone never to be seen again, hopefully he will be at Cheltenham.
            Nick just dug out his win only figures for 2018 BFEXSP and he had 8 winning months out of 12, however noticed that the prices in general are becoming shorter as of late, so that is an angle to be looked at, and last year he did not have two losing months on the trot, where this year Jan/Feb are both losing months win only.
            Josh bets all where you put 1 point win etc from April 2, winning months from 9 win only
            Colins bets 2019 is my worst start ever and strongly belief the mild winter as cost me dear on the AW, last year Jan + 46.44, Feb + 38.22, Mar + 37.82, this year Jan/Feb both losing months.
            Now we have Trainers not running their horses at Arena courses and Jockeys refusing to ride their over the state of price money and i for one totally agree with them.
            Colin.

        3. The most important thing is those that did well in the competition last month need to keep on posting. As Josh has pointed out we have plenty of talent here but personally I wait before getting 3 months worth of stats before following so please do keep posting away.

    3. Welcome back Nick. Hope you’ve enjoyed your break. As others have said, plenty of others have been chipping in with lots of winners. Long may it continue. Josh is going to have a storming Cheltenham and hopefully next week we’ll all be a bit richer at the end of it (smiley face)

  16. COLINS BETS
    Newcastle
    7.00 Lukoutoldmakezebak BOG 7/2
    8.00 Star Cracker BOG 7/4 WH stand alone 15/8

    ELITE BETS
    No bet
    Colin

  17. Will be posting today at 1.00 and 4.30. Still no flags up for these new bets but given the general lack of quality it’s not surprising. Hoping to have a jumps version ready for next season, but given the time it’s taken wouldn’t be much point in attempting it for this season.

  18. Morning,

    15:05 Sandown
    MAGOO 6/1 gen 1pt win
    Really just for the Nicholls factor this one, he is firing in anything and everything at the moment and with the jockey taking 7lb off here, he is thrown in on old form. 7/1 for a Nicholls runner is value atm, only worry is recent form, but, like i said when your winning everything and anything..plus, we all love a grey…
    SUSSEX RANGER 14/1 1pt e/w
    this one was progressing till it`s last run and if back to that form would romp all over all of these, hopefully after all the tinkering of taking headgear off, putting it on etc has now helped work out what is best for him, with his weight which may hinder him, am putting him up each way just in case.
    15:40 Sandown
    MR MERCURIAL 4/1 gen 1pt win
    Well don`t normally bother in these races as i always feel it is a bit of the old boys club horse racing, letting one of them get an early lead and the others then close in, just my opinion being an ex squaddie… This one and my other selection are the best on form i felt that a good dutch on the 2 for a return with one of them winning was too easy to miss..He does like sticking his head in front and may be hard to pass once he gets there, which is just what i like in a horse!!
    LE REVE 4/1 gen 1pt win
    This one loves soft going and with the handicapper finally giving him a chance last time out I`m hoping that will have stirred his will to win into action and he can follow up here! They have been very patient with him and he is a bit of a monkey, but, like i said lto win may have got the horse focussed!
    Now, I know both of these are short and like Josh has said to me in the past(and I agree), even 4/1 is value, so, apologies for those who know that 4/1 is my minimum bet and normally i wouldn`t bother, my reasoning is this.. If one of them wins I ma then in profit, yes, if the they both lose I`m out of pocket, but, isn`t taking the risk and gaining profit what this game is all about?

    As usual hope all the jockeys and horses come back safe and sound today and good luck with whatever your selections are today…damn the 7/1 on Nicholls horse has now gone, 6`s is still value, so, lump on..

  19. Today’s Would be comp darts

    Sandown
    2:00 Champagne poppy
    3:05 Dan McGrue

    Leicester
    2:20 Cobra De mai

    Newcastle
    5:55 Platinum Coast

    Dundalk
    7:45 Park Row

    Good luck

    Good luck

  20. Hi all, my three for today.

    SANDOWN 15:05 SUBCONTINENT @ 11.00
    SANDOWN 16:10 ROCK ON ROCKY @ 9.00
    NEWCASTLE 19:30 KLIPPERTY KLOPP @ 8.00

    Still on a poor run !! 1/15 2p

    G.L.
    Solent

  21. RECENT TIPS
    Daily AW
    L 2.40 – Maazel on 6th run @ 16
    3m+
    S 3.40 – Royal Palladium on 5th run @ 22
    ………..Vieux Lille on 6th run @ 18
    L 4.30 – Solid Strike on 4th run @ 16
    GL

  22. Nordic Combined Sandown 15:05 1pt e/w-12/1-The price of this one compared to the favourite makes no sense consider he beat him at Newbury and is 1lb better off. He ran 4 good races in novice hurdle races most of which have worked out fairly well before getting chucked in at the deep end in the Betfair Hurdle on handicap debut. He hated the new headgear (not a surprise as has hated anything he has worn in his career) which comes-off here. He drops back from a Grade 3 to a class 3 and looks to have been crying out for this step up in trip. He has shown he has no issues with heavy ground so that won’t be a problem either. I’ll count it officially as 3 but try and use Hills who are paying a silly 5 places in a 10 runner race!

    Its Got Legs Sandown 16:45 1pt e/w-We backed this one LTO when he was smashed in from 10/1 to 10/3 and really should have won his race before throwing it away. Another who has some excellent novice form particularly the one in October where he was less than a length behind Glen Forsa and ahead of Crooks Peak and Rouge Vif who are all 130-150 animals now so fairly confident its a case of when he will be winning off his current mark.

    1. Who are you?? Who is this Nick posting?? 🙂 Welcome back. Hope you had a good trip! Refreshed, and you’ve picked out two winners for us. Ever committed. Best of luck.

    2. Welcome back or buenos dias mes amigo.

      Unfortunately while you were away you were replaced by a Chinese robot, ‘Yu Pick Rell’.

        1. I do not call it retirement, i call it becoming a philosopher and sharing your thoughts with your flock.

        2. no retirement is out of the question it’s back to the grindstone for you my lad :-), hope you had a great trip Nick.

    3. Welcome back Nick – hope you had a great time. No disrespect to the other guys but using a Footie analogy its rather like we suddenly have Lionel Messi returning to the starting line up after injury, and just before Cheltenham. 🙂

      1. What a cheek! While it is great to have Nick back we surely cannot disrespect Francis, Stewart and others who have kept my balance very healthy 🙂

        1. Ha, I mean Stewart has the best ‘tipping’ record of any of us this jumps season I think! Francis system flying, and Warren and a few others haven’t done too badly! I mean historically based on the whole of last year, the reference makes sense, but the last few months, maybe others deserve plenty more credit!

          1. As you’ve probably realised yourself, if you’re stuck in a rut you have to try new things Josh. 🙂

          2. Nick is a great tipster but some of the others are doing exceptionally well lest we quickly forget
            Don’t forget there are 11 in a football team – however good one man is if the others don’t support the main man they will still lose
            Anyway poor analogy with Messi… Pele was and will always be the best -)

      2. John
        A very bold statement, since Josh introduced the tipping competition in Feb amazed at the outstanding quality of those who put up their tips, George B who i won £1109.25 for £20 stakes from BFEX, my old mucker Chubnut who in Mar has had 6 bets and using £20 per point he has won me £411.77, Warren, Francis Stewart and many more, and even on the Freepost we have Dee who i am looking forward to his Cheltenham bets.
        Colins bets very poor run at the moment
        Elite bets system based only Jan and Feb winning months and Mar is in profit.
        Josh stopped backing him couple of months ago will look at the Festival tips.
        Nick Mazur reduced my stake on his bets hopefully will be upping the stake again in time.
        Anyone tipping will always at some time have a poor run, and it does not matter who it is.
        Football term Team game and boy do we have team players on RTP, with my poor run others are keeping my banks afloat and a special thanks to them all.
        Colin.
        PS do not put all your eggs in one basket!!!

        1. All good stuff, and i guess with hind sight the Messi analogy was wrong choice 🙂 You are all right in terms of the excellent performances of many of the others – but with being new i am only aware of 12 month records for Nick, Colin and Josh. I m still well minus in my betting Banks over the 3 months since starting – as well know you just cant follow everyone! Should be interesting to see how they all perform relatively over the next 12 months – the long term acid tests. Should be really exciting 🙂

        2. Colin,
          a couple of points…

          Well done for backing George tips/system selections in Feb, but I wouldn’t have advised to diving in at that amount given i’d no idea how he would get on! Didn’t exactly have much to go on, historically, and he changed his approach a bit for the comp/refined his picks, and well done to him – but you could have easily lost 30 points given SR /odds etc, with no historical basis to go on?? Same with Warren, who again has done very well and on way to proving to be an astute tipster.
          Stewart – it’s fair to say that over sticks, since Nov, the evidence is now there that he knows his onions, as does Tim, and his results have mirrored his own personal success – and i’ll take his word on that.
          It’s very dangerous to dive into some approaches not proven in live play, including your Elite bets – I don’t follow those.
          Same with Francis – his system is clearly well researched and on paper, had done very well through said research, before he’s now been posting live for a few months – but again, right at the start, it was hard to dive in with any confidence – and after the run they have been on they’re due a dip , which i’m conscious of, and now may be wrong time to dive in, but if starting following early then well done.

          How the hell have you dropped stakes on Nick?? I assume you raised them just as he hit his wobble run, which still isn’t that bad. Surely if you had a bank etc and had built up X profit, you raise in line with that, and stick to it, or you raised too quickly? Always lessons for us all haha.

          I can’t expect new people, or even me, to dive in systematically backing X approaches without live historical evidence – i ballsed up with W1 there, but the starter advice is better now, more streamlined etc.

          Those figures mentioned are all very good if you have the faith, the banks etc, but I wouldn’t have expected John say, to dive into following X – he started with too many at the start, by his own admission, inc some of yours, and lost plenty – it will be fine in long run, but as always it’s a tricky balance and building up over time, working out who to bring into a portfolio as and when results materialise, and/or who to dip into etc.

          Anyway, just my thoughts, while some of those figures are great, the alternative if diving in with too much too soon, is much worse if starting on a bad run etc 🙂
          Josh

          p.s no free posts during Festival week.

          1. Josh
            Know where you are coming from remember i cannot back with bookmakers and can only back Nicks win only on BFSPEX and for a period of time he has not had a good run of winners only,and they lost in Jan and Feb, so decided to make a smaller bank and use some of the money in different areas, Stewart proven his for a fair time and deep down i am a stats man so delighted to see Francis doing so well and George been messing around with his stats on and off for a while did not back all his bets and missed out on a 20/1 winner and another double figure winner.
            Elite bets said in November that backed them for years and then stopped,then started watching them for the past couple of years and in October decided to back them again myself, so they have been proven and again they are stats based, they are easier to find via the computer now, and that is the reason gone back to backing them.
            Dee on the freepost is one that i will be keeping a close eye on if he puts up any bets at Cheltenham, very impressed with his bets in Dec, he did not put any up in Jan but in Feb he had 3 betting days 3 winners from 18 at SP 4/1, 12/1 and 9/2, did record his Dec bets and he was about 35 points up, threw them away for no bets in Jan thought he had gone never to be seen again, hopefully he will be at Cheltenham.
            Nick just dug out his win only figures for 2018 BFEXSP and he had 8 winning months out of 12, however noticed that the prices in general are becoming shorter as of late, so that is an angle to be looked at, and last year he did not have two losing months on the trot, where this year Jan/Feb are both losing months win only.
            Josh bets all where you put 1 point win etc from April 2, winning months from 9 win only
            Colins bets 2019 is my worst start ever and strongly belief the mild winter as cost me dear on the AW, last year Jan + 46.44, Feb + 38.22, Mar + 37.82, this year Jan/Feb both losing months.
            Now we have Trainers not running their horses at Arena courses and Jockeys refusing to ride their over the state of price money and i for one totally agree with them.
            Colin.

        3. The most important thing is those that did well in the competition last month need to keep on posting. As Josh has pointed out we have plenty of talent here but personally I wait before getting 3 months worth of stats before following so please do keep posting away.

    4. Welcome back Nick. Hope you’ve enjoyed your break. As others have said, plenty of others have been chipping in with lots of winners. Long may it continue. Josh is going to have a storming Cheltenham and hopefully next week we’ll all be a bit richer at the end of it (smiley face)

  23. COLINS BETS
    Newcastle
    7.00 Lukoutoldmakezebak BOG 7/2
    8.00 Star Cracker BOG 7/4 WH stand alone 15/8

    ELITE BETS
    No bet
    Colin

  24. Will be posting today at 1.00 and 4.30. Still no flags up for these new bets but given the general lack of quality it’s not surprising. Hoping to have a jumps version ready for next season, but given the time it’s taken wouldn’t be much point in attempting it for this season.

  25. Anyone else given up on SP2A recently? I just can’t go on with them anymore, haha!! Just looked on Racing Index and they still have Placespotter recording results in the last month, I’ve not seen his name in months on the emails, I won’t go into the their shambolic website!!

    1. I suspect life just getting in the way, I do think he has a day job! (outside of posting comments on here haha) 🙂

      1. His last post suggested to me he had had enough after the negative comments he received. I wasnt expected him to be posting anytime soon after that

  26. Anyone else given up on SP2A recently? I just can’t go on with them anymore, haha!! Just looked on Racing Index and they still have Placespotter recording results in the last month, I’ve not seen his name in months on the emails, I won’t go into the their shambolic website!!

    1. I suspect life just getting in the way, I do think he has a day job! (outside of posting comments on here haha) 🙂

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