Members Daily Post: 07/03/19 (complete)

Tips x2, + write ups, Section 1 (complete), test zone, updates

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Carlisle

2.20 –

The Sting   (HcH) 12/1 S2 3rd 

Strike West   (HcH) H1 I3 G3 7/2 S4 2nd

3.25 – Thomas Do   (nov HcCh) 13/2

3.55 – Byronegetonefree   (nov HcH) 14/1 S2 

4.30 – Never Up   (HcCh, micro’s TJC and going)  G3 7/2 

 

Wincanton

1.40 – Pemberley   (HcH) (added info: hncp h debut) I3 15/8 3rd

2.40 –

Quite By Chance   (HcCh)  ES+ H3 I1 13/2 S3A# UP

Wizards Bridge   (HcCh)  ES+ 25/1 S2A S3A  3rd 

4.55 – Rescued Glory   (nov HcCh) 14/1 S2

 

Bonus Irish

Thurles

4.45 – Getaway John   (HcH)  w2 7/2 

 

*

THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

*

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -5.9 )Best of Stats (29/153,68p, -1.2) Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 1/14,4p, -7)

*

Daily Tips

2.10 Winc – Champagne Champ – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) 4th 11/2… backed, ran ok, held up bit too far back for my liking, but didn’t matter, a plodding on 4th, maybe that trip in that ground just stretched him, and/or bumped into better handicapped rivals. Nicky Henderson/Kim Bailey in fine form. He should pick up a handicap hurdle at some point.

2.40 Winc – Barbrook Star – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) WON 8/1>7/1… phew, a nice confidence boosting winner in my fav race type. That all went perfectly to plan, lovely ride, booted into every fence and he responded. A proper soft ground grinder.

that’s all for today, 09.13..write ups…

The first thing to mention is the going, and I’m assuming it may be soft enough. It’s officially good to soft, soft in places, with a further 3mm in the last 24 hours. On Tuesday the going stick was 5.00, and at the odd meeting last year, a going stick of 5.2 was Heavy/soft in places! The mind boggles. Maybe they have a new stick, or the person pushing it into the ground has changed! 🙂 In any case, they are due some further showers and a few reports have 60% chance of rain through the day, and before racing. So, i’ve assumed it will be soft I suppose, and you’ll need to handle it. I could be wrong, as I was at Exeter, but that’s the nature of the beast…

Champagne Champ – he is the most interesting in this race at the prices and I thought i’d try and get some match practice into my handicap hurdle eyes. With 4 places with some bookies he probably is a solid EW bet, in the sense that i’d have him a very short price to place and if he jumps around, i’d be very surprised if he wasn’t in the top 3. This one ran 12 days ago on handicap hurdle debut where he received a very interesting ride! I think the Millman’s must have forgotten to back him! Ahem. LA held him up which is rare for this horse, and kept him wide. He was still tanking down the straight but LA seemed keen to teach him how to race – or in any case, given his inexperience, he didn’t throw him at the last two hurdles. He sat up, and let the horse pop them – while everything in front was being vigorously ridden. James Milman was on RUK that day and I thought he was an eye-catcher, and that also he’d said something that sparked my interest – from memory (prompted by the RP analysis report!) he’s had a flu jab very recently, and had missed some work/could have been a bit lacklustre. He’s hard fit anyway from spins on the AW, is a multiple flat winner, but still lightly raced, and is 1/4,3p over hurdles – having won a 19.5f maiden at Chepstow in soft. Some of his form does stack up pretty well and he’ll be here to run his race. I think he could have a bit in hand and will relish these conditions. The one niggle, despite the fact he clearly knows how to win, is he can carry his head a tad high at times. That didn’t stop him at Chepstow where he did respond for pressure, and at the odds I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. He also has course form, beaten by a horse that day who’s now in the high 130s/low 140s. That last race at Kempton was better than this also, and he was last off the bridle there. The yard are in form, the jockey knows the horse – he’s in form and rides the track very well also. There’s a bit of pace to track and he can be delivered late after the last. I was tempted to go EW but in reality that just isn’t my style and i’m not very good at it, so i’ll go on the nose.

The dangers… Vards is interesting and I can see why money is coming, on handicap hurdle debut. He’s a former point winner who should enjoy this step up in trip. It’s hard to get a grip on whether he’s well handicapped and if mine runs up to his mark he has a bit to find – which he may do. Conditions should be fine but the selection just has a better level of hurdles form already, and at the similar prices, that swung it. The fav is solid but if this is on the soft side that poses a question, and he’s open to attack from something with more in hand – but he’s still lightly raced himself. Given his form he’s the right price/the right fav I think. The Nicholl’s horse is unexposed but PU after a lengthy absence LTO- he no doubt badly needed it and could take a monster step forward now- clearly a danger but he didn’t seem overpriced, and neither did Henderson’s given the break. Skelton’s has a ground questions, and was fancied LTO where he ran like a non stayer over this trip. I could leave him but he is unexposed. I was happy to leave the rest for one reason or another.

*

Barbrook Star… I just couldn’t ignore that Chepstow run here, given his price. Clearly Glen Forsa has boosted the form of that run somewhat and the 2nd is a solid yardstick. I can only think this one will show a mark of 116 to be lenient enough at some point. Yes he’s no Glen Forsa but he could be a high 120s beast. That was his best chase run to date, it was on the softest ground he’s faced, and Tom O’Brien was riding. He jumps back on now, the horse should get softer ground I think, and the CP go on – clearly Hobbs thinks he needs some help but he knows when to put this headgear on a handicap chaser – 13/48, 24p, 27% + 65 BFSP since 2003, 5/23, 11p in the last 5 years. The horse has yet to win a race, so until they do there’s always a question there, but these look ideal conditions and he may relish this extra yardage also. He has an ok hurdles run here but it is the first time he’s gone RH over fences. There’s probably nothing to that as yet and he’s jumped straight enough on recent starts. On his second chase run he went to Warwick where he didn’t seem happy. The fences can come quick there, he made a few howlers, but miraculously for me was still upsides jumping two out, before then fading. Again the ground may have been quick enough also. LTO I don’t know what happened, the ground was reported ‘tacky’ that day which he may not have liked, having travelled and jumped well enough again until 3/4 out, before seemingly getting outpaced. It was also a dodgy run in Jan and I don’t know when/if the Hobbs yard vaccinate. He may have been quiet enough the also but the yard are going better now- of their last 14 runners, 4 have won, 3 have finished 2nd, so a 50% top 2 SR is solid. He tends to race prominently and I couldn’t resist a stab here. Trainer/jockey do well together and are 2/8 here in handicap chases. IF he returned to that Chepstow form, 8s would look massive. Given the above, I thought it was worth chancing that he would. He will be winning handicap chases soon enough.

The dangers… Quite By Chance would be the one I think and there has been some money for him – he does run as if this is his trip now albeit still has it to prove and he is 10. If i’m right about the ground that’s a question also, esp over this distance, and he has an inexperienced chase jockey on, only his 9th ride over fences. This is one of the easier races he’s been in for a while, ratings wise, and with the 10lb off I can see the case. If mine runs his race, i hope he gets stuck in the mud, but on his second start after a wind-op he did show promise LTO here, and he has a very good record at the track. He is a danger, but 6s wasn’t overpriced to my eyes – he is exposed (albeit ‘unexposed’ over this trip) and there is a ground niggle. He is an S3A# qualifier and financially, if mine doesn’t win, I hope he does!

Team Geegeez have the fav in this and Honeyball’s record with stable newcomers is superb and he can get them fit. But he is 10 and has had 300+ days off, against race fit rivals. It’s hard to say 2s is overpriced here. Maybe he’ll have lbs in hand but I sense it’s a fact finding mission for connections also. I hope he goes well for them, and wins, if mine is a failure today, or indeed Quite By Chance doesn’t get home. But I can’t touch him at the odds, even if he is lightly raced for his age.  Neither can I touch One of Us at the prices, he isn’t overpriced. He’s unexposed and was in form when last seen, but has had 70 odd days off, and has to prove it outside of class 4. So does mine, but I get 8s. I’m not sure as to the level of his form and think there will be something better in here. Len Brennan is interesting but 4s, and now 5s, couldn’t tempt me in. I won’t be shocked if he wins and his form is stacking up. Beaten by two good horses at Plumpton, and by a good one at Carlisle. But, visually at least, he isn’t the biggest of chasers to my eyes and I wonder how he’ll cope with 11-12 on his back – and that was a hard enough race 17 days ago. I’m also yet to be convinced by his jumping, he’s yet to win a race and has been held up on recent starts. Maybe now he has more experience they will be more aggressive, we will see. So, a few questions, but if i’m wrong on all those points and he builds on his run LTO, he’d be bang there over the last. I was happy to leave the rest.

That’s the lot for today. Fingers crossed I can get a confidence boosting winner.

 

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Tom Lacey 

4.55 Winc – Triopas 15/2

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)

3.25 C – Vasco Dycy 7/2

5.05 C – Djebel Rome 11/1

Trainers to follow

4.55 W – Triopas 15/2

*

Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

4.30 C – Molly Carew 10/11

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

IMPORTANT… If you are reading this message, and are an existing member, you have full access to Festival Week as part of your subscription. Just in case there was any confusion. 🙂

 

*

NEW! Chelt Festival Week ‘Master Post’ : HERE>>>

(inc the stats pack, approach to week, betting bank advice, tipping comp rules) 

*

Strategy Results update… is in Wednesday’s post, section 4, for those interested.

*

Good news… Chris at Horse Race Base towers has added a ’48 hour declarations’ function, for both racecards, and system qualifiers. This makes sad folk like me very happy. This will make a big difference, especially next week… it will mean I can get ‘phase 1’ done earlier (race stats/trends shortlists against my stats profiles + micro system qualifiers), freeing up the mind/ more time for analysis. Whether that makes any difference to my performance, only time will tell!! 🙂 But, for those of you who like to use my info etc as starting points, it will help also – more time. In theory by early Monday afternoon the first two days ‘stats work’ will be complete.

*

SATURDAY Big Race Stats/trends to follow later today  .. The Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle will be the stats focus of the day.

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

75 Responses

  1. Tip – 3.15 Win, Illuminated Beauty, 1 point each way at 25/1. Trainer in form. The horse has had an initial run over hurdles. The Hendo horse has fallen last two runs. OK the Nicholls horse could be anything but we are running for a place as well.
    5.30 Win, Saint De Reve, 1 point each way at 13/2. Nicholls is in top form at present. The horse has had two runs to acclimatise itself now. The Hendo hot pot has won its only race well but its a short price.

    Good luck.

  2. AW Inform System Builder Bets.
    Chelmsford 19.55 Francoplilia 7/1 Bet365
    20.25 Archdeacon 8/1 Skybet.

    Good Luck All.

  3. Would be comp darts

    Wincanton
    2:40 Mystical Knight

    Chelmsford
    6:25 Higher Power
    8:25 Colony Queen

    Good luck.

  4. today’s selections.
    Wincanton.
    1-40. Hold Me Tight 35-1 b365 4 places
    2-10. Silver Kayf 12-1 BV 4 places
    2-40. Quite By Chance 7-1

  5. Tip – 3.15 Win, Illuminated Beauty, 1 point each way at 25/1. Trainer in form. The horse has had an initial run over hurdles. The Hendo horse has fallen last two runs. OK the Nicholls horse could be anything but we are running for a place as well.
    5.30 Win, Saint De Reve, 1 point each way at 13/2. Nicholls is in top form at present. The horse has had two runs to acclimatise itself now. The Hendo hot pot has won its only race well but its a short price.

    Good luck.

  6. AW Inform System Builder Bets.
    Chelmsford 19.55 Francoplilia 7/1 Bet365
    20.25 Archdeacon 8/1 Skybet.

    Good Luck All.

  7. Would be comp darts

    Wincanton
    2:40 Mystical Knight

    Chelmsford
    6:25 Higher Power
    8:25 Colony Queen

    Good luck.

  8. i had Robinsfirth in my notebook for the Ultima at Cheltenham but he’s bypassing for a shot at the Midlands GN which seems a bit odd as he has never gone over 3m4f before, i suppose Colin Tizzard must know what he’s doing, any thoughts people.

    1. That’s the right call for me. I mean most horses when running over these extreme trips have to do so for first time at some point! His run/win LTO suggests well worth a go at it. Screams a thorough stayer. Ultima may have happened too quickly for him/get going too late, and would put his jumping under more pressure the pace they would go. Can be scrappy at odd one.
      Ground will be interesting. Don’t think he wants it proper soft but could be wrong.

    2. From a prize money perspective it is likely a sound choice as the racing at the festival will be very competitive, whereas in the Midland GN it will be less so. I do not know if the owners need the prize money but if it was me I would go down this route. The horse may well stay and I guess that uncle Colin thinks it will.

      Get on now.

  9. today’s selections.
    Wincanton.
    1-40. Hold Me Tight 35-1 b365 4 places
    2-10. Silver Kayf 12-1 BV 4 places
    2-40. Quite By Chance 7-1

  10. Hi all, my three for today,

    WINCANTON 14:10 MYPLACEATMIDNIGHT @ 5.00
    WINCANTON 14:40 QUIET BY CHANCE @ 6.50
    WINCANTON 16:55 TIGERALLY @ 6.00

    1/12 02p

    G.L.
    Solent

  11. FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +70.48

    13.40 W – Amzac Magic 1pt
    16.30 C – Pookie Pekan 1pt

    HCAP CHASE BETS

    RT +4.82

    No bets

    1. your system is in ridiculous form, another goes in. Whatever the rules are, you appear to have researched something very good. Well done. A mad purple patch.

      1. Oh, we appear to agree! Where’s my wheelbarrow haha. (apols in advance for the dreaded curse, if he jumps around he won’t be out the places, I think he’s the one to beat)

        1. i do hope you both are right as it happens to be my biggest bet of the day (tipped in 3 places) 🙂

  12. Well this new venture of mine is off to a very slow start with no bets yesterday and guess what?…. nothing today either. I wouldn’t care but it’s not as if I’ve been bombed out with the non handicapped novice races either. Is probably down to the current lack of runners cos it does tend to favour competitive fields.

    Back later with my usual offerings about 1.00 (if any), and the later update at 4.30.

  13. i had Robinsfirth in my notebook for the Ultima at Cheltenham but he’s bypassing for a shot at the Midlands GN which seems a bit odd as he has never gone over 3m4f before, i suppose Colin Tizzard must know what he’s doing, any thoughts people.

    1. That’s the right call for me. I mean most horses when running over these extreme trips have to do so for first time at some point! His run/win LTO suggests well worth a go at it. Screams a thorough stayer. Ultima may have happened too quickly for him/get going too late, and would put his jumping under more pressure the pace they would go. Can be scrappy at odd one.
      Ground will be interesting. Don’t think he wants it proper soft but could be wrong.

    2. From a prize money perspective it is likely a sound choice as the racing at the festival will be very competitive, whereas in the Midland GN it will be less so. I do not know if the owners need the prize money but if it was me I would go down this route. The horse may well stay and I guess that uncle Colin thinks it will.

      Get on now.

  14. COLINS BETS
    5.25 Chelmsford Mans Not Trot BOG 6/1
    Yesterday winner 4/1 to 5/2 and 2nd lost by a nose 5/2 to 7/4
    ELITE BETS
    2.40 Wincanton Barbrook Star BOG 8/1
    4.30 Carlisle Pookie Pekan BOG 7/1
    5.25 Chelmsford Mans Not Trot BOG 6/1
    Colin

  15. Stowaway Magic 2.00 Wincanton 25/1 ew. Theres some theory about second run after a wind op 🙂

  16. Very poor fare on the jumps again today.AW can be tricky too at this time of year with fair weather jockeys coming back and horses getting a run in for turf campaign so a trio of speculative bets at Chelmsford.

    17.25 Atalanta Queen 25/1
    17.55 Charming Guest 12/1
    20.25 Lady Wolf 12/1

    Its AW so no real need to delve into the form,the trainers are in good form,do well at track

  17. I hate to go against Francis but Lisa Harrison is very good with horses on a fairly recent turnround that are up in distance about 4f. This one has good form on heavy too.

    Carlisle 4.30 Instingtive 14/1

  18. Hi all, my three for today,

    WINCANTON 14:10 MYPLACEATMIDNIGHT @ 5.00
    WINCANTON 14:40 QUIET BY CHANCE @ 6.50
    WINCANTON 16:55 TIGERALLY @ 6.00

    1/12 02p

    G.L.
    Solent

  19. FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +70.48

    13.40 W – Amzac Magic 1pt
    16.30 C – Pookie Pekan 1pt

    HCAP CHASE BETS

    RT +4.82

    No bets

    1. your system is in ridiculous form, another goes in. Whatever the rules are, you appear to have researched something very good. Well done. A mad purple patch.

      1. Oh, we appear to agree! Where’s my wheelbarrow haha. (apols in advance for the dreaded curse, if he jumps around he won’t be out the places, I think he’s the one to beat)

        1. i do hope you both are right as it happens to be my biggest bet of the day (tipped in 3 places) 🙂

  20. Well this new venture of mine is off to a very slow start with no bets yesterday and guess what?…. nothing today either. I wouldn’t care but it’s not as if I’ve been bombed out with the non handicapped novice races either. Is probably down to the current lack of runners cos it does tend to favour competitive fields.

    Back later with my usual offerings about 1.00 (if any), and the later update at 4.30.

    1. Ha, cheers. Well, since I tried to focus a bit more, back to 3m+ handicap chases, Quarenta 13/2 plus him at 8s, and a handful of losers/placed horses, has lifted the mood if nothing else! Nice to read one right at a price there- lovely ride and it all came together – had all the ingredients – horse unexposed over fences but with some decent form already / hot form indicating he should be well handicapped – Glen Forsa form is pretty decent! and front three miles clear in that / and a reason for bouncing back today – softer ground / jockey switch / CP on with good trainer stats to back up. And he races prominently/jumps well. Was clear after 3 fences he’d go close, given how he went, and thankfully front two took each other on. Couldn’t have gone better. Anyway, a confidence booster if nothing else, and a well timed one!

  21. COLINS BETS
    5.25 Chelmsford Mans Not Trot BOG 6/1
    Yesterday winner 4/1 to 5/2 and 2nd lost by a nose 5/2 to 7/4
    ELITE BETS
    2.40 Wincanton Barbrook Star BOG 8/1
    4.30 Carlisle Pookie Pekan BOG 7/1
    5.25 Chelmsford Mans Not Trot BOG 6/1
    Colin

  22. Very poor fare on the jumps again today.AW can be tricky too at this time of year with fair weather jockeys coming back and horses getting a run in for turf campaign so a trio of speculative bets at Chelmsford.

    17.25 Atalanta Queen 25/1
    17.55 Charming Guest 12/1
    20.25 Lady Wolf 12/1

    Its AW so no real need to delve into the form,the trainers are in good form,do well at track

  23. Hi Josh,

    Good stuff with the winner. A timely boost before a big next week.

    You mentioned recently the potential for some sort of daily tipping ‘league’ for want of a better term . Trawling through the comments looking for tips from those who you choose to regularly follow and also determining those who are worth following is proving a little difficult at times, particularly on busy days.

    I’ve seen a number of sites which have some sort of implementation of such a league and I wondered if you had made any progress in finding something/someone suitable? Obviously, it’s not something that could be in-place for, say Cheltenham, but perhaps the flat season is something worth considering.

    It would be fantastic to be able to find all those ‘tips’ consolidated into a single area with automatically tracked P/L, 7,14 and 28 day ‘form’ or P/L for the tipster to give an indication of form. It may also provide a place for people to track their bets?

    Anyway, just some thoughts and not wanting to distract from the week that stops the punting world, but food for thought perhaps as this place continues to develop.

    Best,
    Lee

    1. Hi Lee,

      Yep it’s on my list of things to do! It’s not easy – but there are some APIs/feeds from certain sources you can pay for, I then need to pay my tech support to code everything , integrate it, and get it all working. I’m happy to invest in such things, but as with always at this time of year, other things are taking priority but it is something i’d like to get sorted after Aintree, and hopefully before Royal Ascot say, if not sooner.

      The daily tipping comp post worked well in Feb I thought. There’s some software I want to upgrade to for comments etc also, but didn’t want to touch it before Chelts etc in case it didn’t work.
      As always there is plenty to improve and those ideas of yours are at the top of the development list. For now it is what it is. You can always do ‘Ctrl F’ and type in the name of contributor to find comments, if you need. I’ve never had a problem skimming through to those who’s tips I follow say, or take note of. But yep that could be better.
      Of course, whether or not anyone would use a tipping league software function is another matter! 🙂
      Josh

  24. I hate to go against Francis but Lisa Harrison is very good with horses on a fairly recent turnround that are up in distance about 4f. This one has good form on heavy too.

    Carlisle 4.30 Instingtive 14/1

    1. Ha, cheers. Well, since I tried to focus a bit more, back to 3m+ handicap chases, Quarenta 13/2 plus him at 8s, and a handful of losers/placed horses, has lifted the mood if nothing else! Nice to read one right at a price there- lovely ride and it all came together – had all the ingredients – horse unexposed over fences but with some decent form already / hot form indicating he should be well handicapped – Glen Forsa form is pretty decent! and front three miles clear in that / and a reason for bouncing back today – softer ground / jockey switch / CP on with good trainer stats to back up. And he races prominently/jumps well. Was clear after 3 fences he’d go close, given how he went, and thankfully front two took each other on. Couldn’t have gone better. Anyway, a confidence booster if nothing else, and a well timed one!

      1. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves! But nice to read a muddy staying chase correctly and land on the right one/overpriced one. There have been some green shoots in recent weeks, a winner makes such a difference mentally. Just in time 🙂 Throw in the Imperial Cup winner, the Ultima, Close Brothers and then we are set for the rest of the week!
        Josh

  25. Hi Josh,

    Good stuff with the winner. A timely boost before a big next week.

    You mentioned recently the potential for some sort of daily tipping ‘league’ for want of a better term . Trawling through the comments looking for tips from those who you choose to regularly follow and also determining those who are worth following is proving a little difficult at times, particularly on busy days.

    I’ve seen a number of sites which have some sort of implementation of such a league and I wondered if you had made any progress in finding something/someone suitable? Obviously, it’s not something that could be in-place for, say Cheltenham, but perhaps the flat season is something worth considering.

    It would be fantastic to be able to find all those ‘tips’ consolidated into a single area with automatically tracked P/L, 7,14 and 28 day ‘form’ or P/L for the tipster to give an indication of form. It may also provide a place for people to track their bets?

    Anyway, just some thoughts and not wanting to distract from the week that stops the punting world, but food for thought perhaps as this place continues to develop.

    Best,
    Lee

    1. Hi Lee,

      Yep it’s on my list of things to do! It’s not easy – but there are some APIs/feeds from certain sources you can pay for, I then need to pay my tech support to code everything , integrate it, and get it all working. I’m happy to invest in such things, but as with always at this time of year, other things are taking priority but it is something i’d like to get sorted after Aintree, and hopefully before Royal Ascot say, if not sooner.

      The daily tipping comp post worked well in Feb I thought. There’s some software I want to upgrade to for comments etc also, but didn’t want to touch it before Chelts etc in case it didn’t work.
      As always there is plenty to improve and those ideas of yours are at the top of the development list. For now it is what it is. You can always do ‘Ctrl F’ and type in the name of contributor to find comments, if you need. I’ve never had a problem skimming through to those who’s tips I follow say, or take note of. But yep that could be better.
      Of course, whether or not anyone would use a tipping league software function is another matter! 🙂
      Josh

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.