Members Daily Post: 06/03/19 (complete)

Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Catterick

3.50 –

Ubaltique   (HcCh, m -class)  14 11/1 S2 UP

Valgor du Ronceray   (m age) 40/1 UP

Roxyfet   (m age)  w1 H3 G3 15/2 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

4.20 –

Same Circus   (m’s age and -class) 14 w2  ES+ H3 I3 G3 11/4 S3A# S4 2nd 

Valence D’Aumont   (m’s TJC and -class) 30 7/1  UP

 

Fontwell 

None

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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The Cheltenham stats/trends pack:  READ HERE>>>

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -12.9 )Best of Stats (29/153,68p, -1.2) Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 1/14,4p, -7)

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Nothing on Wednesday.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide)

3.50 C – Ubaltique 11/1

4.20 C – Same Circus 11/4

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

2.50 C-  Lord Du Mesnil 9/2

A Honeyball Mares (5/1<)

3.40 F – Urca De Lima 8/15

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

4.20 C – Same Circus 11/4

Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

4.10 F – Away For Slates 8/13

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Free Online Festival Mag… as per yesterday’s note… You can get a free Festival magazine HERE>>>, which I send out on behalf of the author’s every year.

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New blog post… a look back at a Festival preview evening I went to Monday evening…  read HERE>>>

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Section 1 Strategy Results Update…

Not too much to shout about this year… firstly the main two strategies…

S1 

Results 2019 (+76 BFSP 2018)

  • Jan 2019: 2/14,5p, +11, +9.5 BFSP
  • Feb 2019: 2/24, 2p, -2.65, 0 BFSP
  • Total 2019: 4/38, 7p, +8.35, +9.5

S3A#

Results 2019 (+75 2018)

  • Jan 2019: 2/4,2p, +5.25
  • Feb: 1/10,2p, -7.5
  • Total: 3/14, 4p, -2.25

 

S2A has had a poor start to the year, and has never been one for the faint hearted. -39.7 BFSP to 1 point win, -29.7 to 1/2 point EW.  Had Firebird Flyer held on that BFSP win figure would be +20 or so. A game of fine margins with those, but such losings runs are expected with that one, and have happened before. It’s all about the odd biggie dropping in over time.

S3A (ES+) 

Simply any horse that is an Elite Squad+ qualifier ES+ (the stats pack angles with 10+ winner, 25% + win SR)…

Those had a good 2018… 56/255, 88p, +75

In 2019 so far… 10/54, 17p, +14.75

They include the totals for S3A# – which remember is any Elite Squad + qualifier (ES+) with two or more red symbols next to their name (the ratings sets pointers) (EG ES+ H3 I3 G3.. Same Circus the example above)  … in 2018 they won +75 points, but from 137 bets, as opposed to 255 bets above if just backing ALL ES+ qualifiers (S3A), if that makes sense! Hence why S3A# is advised, as the profit is similar, or has been to just backing all ES+ horses, but the ROI is clearly much bigger.

But, any ES+ horse (aka S3A) is worth a second glance, and with any luck they keep ticking along 🙂

W1 (won LTO)…

This one I was too quick to laud I think… in 2018… 50/191, 72p, +33.53.  In 2019… 6/47, 12p, -27.18.  It’s nearly given back all the profit. It would appear these LTO winners are not offering much value. The win SR is good but maybe they are not overpriced. Decent ‘starting point’ though, but we will see how they go in the coming months.

W2 (won two starts back)

This could be more interesting… 2018… 33/183, 67p, +29.85. In 2019 to end Feb… 9/52, 15p, +16. A Total of 42/235, 82p, +45.85. It does only have a 17% win SR so would be up and down. I wouldn’t back it systematically as yet, but again, if using the section 1 as starting points, not a bad place to start if using ES+, w1/w2 to shortlist, for example.

The Test Zone: Section 3

All of Adam Norman’s Little Black Book horses have been doing well… 4/20, 9p, +23 since I started posting them. Again, a decent ‘starting point’, and whether or not it’s best ‘stopping at a winner’ I don’t know, but they are not posted for systematic purposes. 

The ‘Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19’ is ticking this year… 85/404, 172p, +25.91 … again that’s a lot of bets, but not the biggest ROI, and clearly dependent on the odd big winner, but again, not a bad ‘way in’, if that’s your thing.

Strategy wise, it is still about S1 and S3A# over sticks for me, systematically at least. They pulled in +152 last year, and will hopefully do so this year. A solid foundation on which to build.

Anyway, do with all of that as you please. I’ll update links in the Key soon, and will bring everything else up to date early April.

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

90 Responses

  1. Colins Bets.
    Pulling my hair out the frustration continues
    One winner 11/8 from 2/1
    Three losers 5/1 to 7/2, 12/1 to 6/1, 10/1 to 5/1 beating the price almost every time this year however they are not winning, out of those three heavily backed you would have expected one to win but not to be, will have a look later today and as the Cypriots say maybe tomorrow my friend lets hope so!
    Colin

  2. With the daily work load almost zero at the moment I’ve been spending my time automating some ideas into a new methodology that should post itself on to my screen every morning. The strike rate isn’t as good as the bets I normally post but these are handicapped races, so is to be expected. The horses are unexposed (=<10 runs), and I will be posting them from tomorrow AM with evidence based upon 5 years of past data.

    You can expect a strike rate of around 14.5% and an ROI in excess of 50% which ain&#039t bad bearing in mind that as I become familiar with them I&#039m hoping to improve it over the long term, but the real good news is that the eligibility is calculated from the tissue odds so I can just post them in the morning knowing that they are good to BFSP. So from now on if they don&#039t have decimal odds against them you don&#039t need to worry about the odds although personally I&#039m setting a minimum of 7/2 against them as below that the value tends to peeter out to sod all in the end.

    1. All sounds very interesting Tim. What a great site this is where people share so much of what they do. Thank you so much for your contributions 🙂

  3. no selections, very poor racing with only Kempton having a decent card.
    might have a nibble on Hartside in the seller and Roxyfet in 3-50 for a bit of fun.

  4. Tip = 7.00 KP, Amplify, 1 point each way at 20/1. I am taking on the much vaunted Jahbath here. I expect my selection to lead here and in a hot race where some may sit back, my selection will go out and hang on for at least a place. Although he looks a bit outclassed here, the horse is till improving and could be under estimated ???

  5. George’s smiley faces 2 plus tipsters agree etc

    2nd Mar 3/17 11/1, 6/1, 15/8 = SP + 4.875
    5th Mar 2/7 15/2, 11/8 SP = 3.875
    Total 5/24 = SP + 8.75
    Colin.

  6. Colins Bets.
    Pulling my hair out the frustration continues
    One winner 11/8 from 2/1
    Three losers 5/1 to 7/2, 12/1 to 6/1, 10/1 to 5/1 beating the price almost every time this year however they are not winning, out of those three heavily backed you would have expected one to win but not to be, will have a look later today and as the Cypriots say maybe tomorrow my friend lets hope so!
    Colin

    1. Really thought we had it there with high acclaim. They will come good mate, keep ‘em coming!

  7. FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +61.98

    One of those days Tuesday. HRB snuck in an extra system qualifier which I only spotted at 3pm ish. It has never happened before and probably won’t happen again but needless to say the bugger won (10/1), beating the S2A longshot in the process! This sort of occurrence when posting bets really does follow me around, happened to me on another blog too. Anyone would think I make this stuff up!

    2 seconds from the 3 bets. Spare a thought for Big Time Frank, second for the sixth time on a trot! Brought back memories of a system I built which I named seconditis in HRB. The system was to back flat handicappers that has finished second three times on the trot dropping in class. The theory was that punters would let question marks over the horses’ attitude override its solid form claims and create margin in the price. It showed promise until last season but the system has since been retired. Only got space for 100 systems in my HRB, had to go lol.

    3.50 C – Halcyon days 1pt
    4.20 C – Iwilldoit 1pt

    HCAP CHASE BETS
    RT +3.44

    3.50 C – Roxyfet
    4.10 F – Away for Slated

    1. Hmmm… Tying to work out the late qualifier?? Do you have an odds limit set as part of the system rules? If you have odds set they do it on forecast I think so may miss some bigger ones that get backed in? I’d save all systems without any odds element so you get all quals. That may not be it of course!

    2. Francis, if you have hundreds of systems running is it fair to assume that the one you post here is the one that has served you best? Any past results for it? Sorry if you’ve posted it before

      1. Not odds Josh but HRB were right to change the list during the day – that’s all I can say!

        Tbh Chris this is just the one I created last and when I created it, I thought I would share it. I do have others which I have a higher level of confidence in but in a lot of them the rules wouldn’t be sufficiently well hidden to share. As ridiculous as it sounds, my best one has just 2 filters.

        Results for the system I am sharing (since 2015):
        1 pointers – 187 from 766, +141 SP, +210 BFSP, A/E 1.24
        2 pointers – 116 from 426, +143 SP, +199 BFSP, A/E 1.40

        I have only been proofing results since 2019 and so always a chance I am simply cherrypicking the best filters based on previous results but something similar works on the flat very well too so I am sure there is something in it.

        Overall, results aren’t groundbreaking but considering we are dealing with horses towards the top of the market, they are pretty solid and could be improved with BOG etc. For example, both horses that finished 2nd today were top price 7/1 with bookies in the morning but went off 11/2 and 3/1.

          1. Well done Francis, I had the three winners in a Yankee with a non runner. Keep it going for next week. I did Roxyfet separately.

      1. Thanks everyone – been a bit of a crazy spell to say the least! As the figures above show, even if the results delivered in line with historic results (which is never a guarantee), we are probably talking about an expected combined ROI of 35% but this year it’s closer to 100% now. Always mindful that the good form won’t last forever but great to see so many of you benefitting from them.

  8. With the daily work load almost zero at the moment I’ve been spending my time automating some ideas into a new methodology that should post itself on to my screen every morning. The strike rate isn’t as good as the bets I normally post but these are handicapped races, so is to be expected. The horses are unexposed (=<10 runs), and I will be posting them from tomorrow AM with evidence based upon 5 years of past data.

    You can expect a strike rate of around 14.5% and an ROI in excess of 50% which ain't bad bearing in mind that as I become familiar with them I'm hoping to improve it over the long term, but the real good news is that the eligibility is calculated from the tissue odds so I can just post them in the morning knowing that they are good to BFSP. So from now on if they don't have decimal odds against them you don't need to worry about the odds although personally I'm setting a minimum of 7/2 against them as below that the value tends to peeter out to sod all in the end.

    1. All sounds very interesting Tim. What a great site this is where people share so much of what they do. Thank you so much for your contributions 🙂

      1. One thing I forgot to mention is that trainer stats (or jockey), do not figure in the criteria so there is great potential for improvement. Or you can just use them as a 50%+ ROI starting point knowing that there is some value to be had even from the lesser yards.

        I’ve already done a check on the trainer angle and all the usual suspects are top of the winners list, but that is of course generally reflected in the odds although there is a healthy contribution of less fancied winners from the bigger yards throwing up some big value numbers. 😉

  9. no selections, very poor racing with only Kempton having a decent card.
    might have a nibble on Hartside in the seller and Roxyfet in 3-50 for a bit of fun.

  10. Tip = 7.00 KP, Amplify, 1 point each way at 20/1. I am taking on the much vaunted Jahbath here. I expect my selection to lead here and in a hot race where some may sit back, my selection will go out and hang on for at least a place. Although he looks a bit outclassed here, the horse is till improving and could be under estimated ???

  11. Hi all, my miserable run continues.
    Hopefully getting it out of the way before next Tuesday.
    Poor cards today, so nothing from me.

    G.L.
    Solent

  12. maybe we should have a Cheltenham bookie offer thread to keep track of the best one’s, i used just about every offer available to me last year and it worked out very well.
    Skybet 1st race special – money back as cash up to £20 if your horse loses
    Unibet are offering me £5 free bet, £25 matched deposit if i start using them again , don’t know if this is generally available and they have their 15 minute promotion back under 15 min from off and they will match your bet think it’s up to £25.

    1. The SkyBet offer has been about for a couple of years in the opener. I think that you must be restricted to one bet in the race. So you have to have a go if you can.

      The bookies on course offer bad value and the internet does not work that well due to the volumes there and the location. The betting shops do BOG if you get on before racing starts. I do have a punt on a multiple in the betting shop on course and will borrow a wheelbarrow if it comes off.

      1. Coral are doing double winnings up to £25 on the first race each day, Paddy are doing a free bet refund up to £10 for horses finishing 2nd 3rd or 4th on all races on day one, and Betway are offering £10 free bet refunds on losers in the first and last race every day. That’s if anyone can get a bet on with any of them.

      2. yes it’s your FIRST bet in that race only, i’m fairly lucky i still have Skybet, WH, B365 and BV , with BF exchange/sportsbook and Unibet

        1. If you can get on with betway they do money back on the 1st and last race regardless of placing or placing behind fav it’s straight 10er bet no winner- money back as FREE BET also paddy power (unsure of details offhand) first day special -money back If placed in all races on the first day ill stress again I’m unsure of exact criteria needed to qualify

  13. COLINS BETS
    2.10 Fontwell Brendon Hill BOG 4/1
    8.00 Kempton Kraka BOG 5/2

    ELITE BETS
    8.00 Kempton Kraka BOG 5/2
    Colin

  14. Today’s would be tip comp darts.

    Catterick
    2:20 Darsi’s Jewel

    Dundalk
    5:45 Indiana grey

    Kempton
    6:30 Liliofthelamplight
    7:00 Daafr

    Good luck everyone

    1. Hi Warren
      Thanks for putting your bets up on the forum and you are certainly having a good run, are they system based or your own reading of the race.
      Colin.

      1. Hi Colin.
        Most of it is stat based around trainers. If I’m honest I’m not a great form reader. Pace/speed is my other angle. I do have a speed based system btit I don’t put selections up as most are very short prices. I do on the occasion sneak one in from that system in the ones posted. SONG SAA yesterday was one but not all there are usually between 3 and 5 of those per day.
        Lastly gut instinct something I can thank my late father for. Example last month tiger roll. Looked at him and the price I have to back him.

        Hope that sheds some light but nothing special in what I do.

        Warren.

    2. Yep much appreciated Warren, I mean there’s always discretionary prizes up for grabs haha… do keep your running P/L if you don’t mind, even if just weekly, but you’ve been doing very well! I did hope the comp would unearth a few more stars… 🙂

      1. Will do I’ll post them weekly to BFSP.

        The wheels will fall off at some point though it does for everyone at some point.
        But hopefully long term will pay off.

    1. They are probably having a pre Cheltenham cull to get rid of the matched bettors before they can take advantage of the offers.

  15. a very rare day when all i have to do is make tea, so hopefully i’m spending it wisely going through every race at Cheltenham obviously some will be n/r’s but a few on day 1 have caught my eye. Trying to cut it down to 2 per race will post thoughts later .

  16. Hi all, my miserable run continues.
    Hopefully getting it out of the way before next Tuesday.
    Poor cards today, so nothing from me.

    G.L.
    Solent

  17. maybe we should have a Cheltenham bookie offer thread to keep track of the best one’s, i used just about every offer available to me last year and it worked out very well.
    Skybet 1st race special – money back as cash up to £20 if your horse loses
    Unibet are offering me £5 free bet, £25 matched deposit if i start using them again , don’t know if this is generally available and they have their 15 minute promotion back under 15 min from off and they will match your bet think it’s up to £25.

    1. The SkyBet offer has been about for a couple of years in the opener. I think that you must be restricted to one bet in the race. So you have to have a go if you can.

      The bookies on course offer bad value and the internet does not work that well due to the volumes there and the location. The betting shops do BOG if you get on before racing starts. I do have a punt on a multiple in the betting shop on course and will borrow a wheelbarrow if it comes off.

      1. Coral are doing double winnings up to £25 on the first race each day, Paddy are doing a free bet refund up to £10 for horses finishing 2nd 3rd or 4th on all races on day one, and Betway are offering £10 free bet refunds on losers in the first and last race every day. That’s if anyone can get a bet on with any of them.

      2. yes it’s your FIRST bet in that race only, i’m fairly lucky i still have Skybet, WH, B365 and BV , with BF exchange/sportsbook and Unibet

        1. If you can get on with betway they do money back on the 1st and last race regardless of placing or placing behind fav it’s straight 10er bet no winner- money back as FREE BET also paddy power (unsure of details offhand) first day special -money back If placed in all races on the first day ill stress again I’m unsure of exact criteria needed to qualify

  18. Alex Dunn has had a winner since I last posted one of hers. She has a couple running tonight at Kempton, both have had one run for her. Her stats aren’t very good for the second run either but one of them is weighted to go very close and the price is just too big to let him go unbacked. Sire stats discount Kempton for the other one.

    Kempton 8.30 Hollander 28/1

    Running total -4.00 for the month.

  19. COLINS BETS
    2.10 Fontwell Brendon Hill BOG 4/1
    8.00 Kempton Kraka BOG 5/2

    ELITE BETS
    8.00 Kempton Kraka BOG 5/2
    Colin

  20. Today’s would be tip comp darts.

    Catterick
    2:20 Darsi’s Jewel

    Dundalk
    5:45 Indiana grey

    Kempton
    6:30 Liliofthelamplight
    7:00 Daafr

    Good luck everyone

    1. Hi Warren
      Thanks for putting your bets up on the forum and you are certainly having a good run, are they system based or your own reading of the race.
      Colin.

      1. Hi Colin.
        Most of it is stat based around trainers. If I’m honest I’m not a great form reader. Pace/speed is my other angle. I do have a speed based system btit I don’t put selections up as most are very short prices. I do on the occasion sneak one in from that system in the ones posted. SONG SAA yesterday was one but not all there are usually between 3 and 5 of those per day.
        Lastly gut instinct something I can thank my late father for. Example last month tiger roll. Looked at him and the price I have to back him.

        Hope that sheds some light but nothing special in what I do.

        Warren.

    2. Yep much appreciated Warren, I mean there’s always discretionary prizes up for grabs haha… do keep your running P/L if you don’t mind, even if just weekly, but you’ve been doing very well! I did hope the comp would unearth a few more stars… 🙂

      1. Will do I’ll post them weekly to BFSP.

        The wheels will fall off at some point though it does for everyone at some point.
        But hopefully long term will pay off.

    1. They are probably having a pre Cheltenham cull to get rid of the matched bettors before they can take advantage of the offers.

  21. a very rare day when all i have to do is make tea, so hopefully i’m spending it wisely going through every race at Cheltenham obviously some will be n/r’s but a few on day 1 have caught my eye. Trying to cut it down to 2 per race will post thoughts later .

  22. Alex Dunn has had a winner since I last posted one of hers. She has a couple running tonight at Kempton, both have had one run for her. Her stats aren’t very good for the second run either but one of them is weighted to go very close and the price is just too big to let him go unbacked. Sire stats discount Kempton for the other one.

    Kempton 8.30 Hollander 28/1

    Running total -4.00 for the month.

  23. FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +61.98

    One of those days Tuesday. HRB snuck in an extra system qualifier which I only spotted at 3pm ish. It has never happened before and probably won’t happen again but needless to say the bugger won (10/1), beating the S2A longshot in the process! This sort of occurrence when posting bets really does follow me around, happened to me on another blog too. Anyone would think I make this stuff up!

    2 seconds from the 3 bets. Spare a thought for Big Time Frank, second for the sixth time on a trot! Brought back memories of a system I built which I named seconditis in HRB. The system was to back flat handicappers that has finished second three times on the trot dropping in class. The theory was that punters would let question marks over the horses’ attitude override its solid form claims and create margin in the price. It showed promise until last season but the system has since been retired. Only got space for 100 systems in my HRB, had to go lol.

    3.50 C – Halcyon days 1pt
    4.20 C – Iwilldoit 1pt

    HCAP CHASE BETS
    RT +3.44

    3.50 C – Roxyfet
    4.10 F – Away for Slated

    1. Hmmm… Tying to work out the late qualifier?? Do you have an odds limit set as part of the system rules? If you have odds set they do it on forecast I think so may miss some bigger ones that get backed in? I’d save all systems without any odds element so you get all quals. That may not be it of course!

    2. Francis, if you have hundreds of systems running is it fair to assume that the one you post here is the one that has served you best? Any past results for it? Sorry if you’ve posted it before

      1. Thanks everyone – been a bit of a crazy spell to say the least! As the figures above show, even if the results delivered in line with historic results (which is never a guarantee), we are probably talking about an expected combined ROI of 35% but this year it’s closer to 100% now. Always mindful that the good form won’t last forever but great to see so many of you benefitting from them.

  24. George’s smiley faces 2 plus tipsters agree etc

    2nd Mar 3/17 11/1, 6/1, 15/8 = SP + 4.875
    5th Mar 2/7 15/2, 11/8 SP = 3.875
    Total 5/24 = SP + 8.75
    Colin.

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