Members Daily Post: 02/03/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Doncaster

1.50 –

Gunfleet   (micro runs) 14,30  G3

Faithful Mount   (all Hc’s) 15/2 

3.35 – Dingo Dollar   (all Hc’s, HcCh, m’s dist,age and runs) I3 G3 7/2 

 

Kelso

2.15 – Alizee de Janeiro   (nov HcCh)  w2 H3 I1 G3 11/2 S4  WON 

3.55 – Grand Morning   (nov HcCh) H3 6/1 

4.30 –

Fly Rory Fly   (m dist) H3 I3 G1 11/4 S4 

Left Back   (m dist) I3 8/1 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

5.05 – Bialco   (m TJC) H3 7/1 

 

Newbury

1.30 –

Tapaculo   (m class)  w2 H3 8/1 

Bally Longford   (all Hc’s) H3 I1 8/1 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

2.05 – Theatre Guide   (all Hc’s) 8/1 2nd 

2.40 –

Dolos   (HcCh, m’s dist and runs) 14,30  w1 H3 I3 8/1 

Warriors Tale   (HcCh, m’s dist,age and runs) 14,30   w2 14/1 S2 

San Benedeto   (HcCh, m dist) 14,30 12/1 S2 WON 12/1 

Shanahans Turn   (all Hc’s) 33/1

3.10 –

Cyrus Darius   (all Hc’s) 16/1 S2A 

Crooks Peak   (m’s class,dist and age)  w1  w2 H1 3/1 

Ebony Gale   (m’s class, dist and age)  w2 16/1 S2A 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

 

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -9.9 )Best of Stats (29/153,68p, -1.2) Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 1/14,4p, -7)

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(from the Free post, i’m going with Shanroe Santos at 11/1 in the 2.05, 1 point win)

 

Big Race Tips

#1 2.40 Newbury – Happy Diva – 1 point EW – 11/2 (gen, 1/4 1/5 5 places gen) UR

#2 3.10 Newbury – Champagne City – 1 point win – 9/2 (gen) 2nd , a story of shoddy jumping, that’s the game. Happy Diva would have been top 2 if jumping given how she was travelling/how race played out, still can’t believe she’s UR.  And CC wins if he jumps 2 out or 3 out, forget which, better, where he lost around 3L. A shame NF didn’t have him on outside and could bag the rail turning for home, a bit strange, and that’s cost him also. What with Shanroes 11s>5s and running poorly, it’s an afternoon to forget for me, but that’s how it goes. Onwards. 

 

that’s ALL tips for today, as of 09.48…those two + Shanroe in the free post… write ups to follow…

 

Happy Diva – well i’ve no doubt given her the curse here but on recent form/profile she’s the best horse in this race for me and provided she isn’t brought down/suffers a problem (damn, said it now!) she’s the one to beat, and even in this field size (with plenty of deadwood to my eyes) I wouldn’t have been shocked to see 7/2, 4/1. Kerry Lee has started to hit some form but even when the yard was very quiet this one kept running her race. She was still tanking 4 out in the BetVictor Gold Cup before Xmas when being brought down and would have been in and around some decent yardsticks there, in a race that has worked out well (Frodon etc). This doesn’t have the depth of that race. She was 2L behind the 158 rated Aso on her next start, closing again to the line. He’d had an easy enough lead there but in any case it was a valiant effort off her mark of 140, of which she’s only 2lb higher here. Next time she was beaten by Cyrname (hindsight is wonderful but it would’ve been nice to have had more than 1 point on him at 11s when put up on here that day) and was sent to chase him a long way out – that took it’s toll late on, caught by one who’d been held up, but that’s still decent form. That winner is now rated 178. The rest were well stuffed. Last time she beat a decent yardstick of Jessie Harrington’s in a listed mares chase at Huntingdon, receiving 4lb but rated 9lb inferior. I’m pretty confident that a mark of 142 underestimates her and R Patrick can claim in this whereas he couldn’t LTO. The horse has placed in her one run over fences here, will relish conditions, jumps superbly and is just a gutsy trier. She deserves to be fav here and is still overpriced to my eyes. Her runs 5 and 6 races ago are also very solid form. She just ticks a lot of boxes here and it’s whether she gets luck in running/runs her race. The rest are in big trouble if she does. She races prominently enough and should track any pace, popping away, before being delivered 2 out or so to put it to bed!

The dangers.. well Dolos is the obvious one I suppose but I have a few reservations over him in a battle, the strength of his form and more importantly his stamina – i’m not 100% he will see this out as strongly as some, in a big field/strong pace like this. The jockey also niggled at me given he’s only 2/43 over fences or so, 0/20+ when riding for Nicholls. He strikes me as a horse that takes some knowing and can be fiddly at his fences. I’ll be annoyed if he bolts up at 8s, but in the end I talked myself out of him. I mean if he wins and mine comes 6th i’ll be needing a stiff drink! He does have solid form to his name, not as good as the selections for me, but not far off.

I really struggled to make a case for the rest based on their recent form, if those two mentioned run their race. Some are getting on a bit now and are on high enough marks, looking exposed enough. There’s a few who could run well if they returned to their best but I wasn’t sure why many would bounce back – many in here haven’t been very good on their last couple of starts and I don’t really like horses bouncing back from nowhere in these sorts of chases. But it’s been an odd season. I can leave the Hobbs horse at the price, that wasn’t big enough, the yard have hit an iffy spell again and he can clout a fence. I’m bullish enough to think this is about the selection and whether she runs her race and I thought she was value to do so still, so i’ll stick with her. In 15 renewals this has been won 6 times by horses sent off 11/2 or shorter. Fingers crossed it’s number 7.

update: I should mention Javert at 8/1… i can see the case for him, but he’s 10 (while lightly raced to a point,albeit for one this age that suggests issues) and returns after a 105 day break, and doesn’t have a ‘Lavelle jockey’ on, albeit clearly Tommy Scu is a good sub. Lavelle is 1/62 in class 1 handicap chases which I found a bit off-putting also, although she’s in fine form. Maybe he just didn’t like Chelt LTO or did too much too soon but I think Happy D would have been ahead of him if not brought down, however that was 4 out and still some way to go. The break is a concern given his profile but he’s gone well fresh in the past. I was happy to leave him but a big run wouldn’t be a surprise.

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Champagne City…

I think 9/2 is overpriced in this given his form and he should be the fav here. (and yes I know it’s a class 3 but I couldn’t help myself). I wouldn’t have him bigger than 3s based on his form… I tipped him LTO at Chelt and was counting my money as they swung for home but having watched it back, and his other runs at Chelt, I can only conclude he doesn’t get up the hill. He possibly did too much too soon there also but his form really does stack up…  two starts back they all bumped into Al Dancer, but the horse in front of him and behind him there have since won and that was his first run back after a break. LTO he hit the front as discussed but the fact the winner came from a different parish suggests they went hard enough, and again he didn’t get home. The horse in front of him there has since won again, and he had Equus A well stuffed, who re-opposes here. George is in the best form he’s been in all season I think, 6/28,12p the last 14 days, Noel jumps back on and he’s been riding superbly since returning from his injury – he’s also 6/20,12p on Tom George hurdlers in recent years. The horse… well he drops in class here, is still unexposed in handicap hurdles (esp on flat tracks), demolished a decent field in the summer at Newton A, and will relish this return to a flatter track. He’s also a prominent racer and will be in the right spot to use his deadly turn of foot. Hopefully he can put this to bed approaching the last and he’s usually a very sound jumper. He’ll prefer this better ground also as LTO was soft enough. I do think he’s the in-form classy horse in this race and 9/2 is fair.

The others… Crooks Peak looks short enough to my eyes. Yes he’s progressive but he’s won a couple of small field dawdles, (albeit beat a decent Nicholls horse LTO), he’s had 96 days off suggesting a problem and therefore a fitness question, and the Hobbs yard are still in-and-out – plenty are still not finishing of their races. I was happy to take him on. Flying Tiger  he’s the talking horse in this race, mentioned in all parts, and his price looks about right now. I can see why many went in at 10s+ but I can’t have him really – I don’t think this race will suit as on paper at least there isn’t loads of pace. He’s really struggled to settle in his races through his whole career and LTO suggests he still hasn’t learnt to drop his head. He can get upset before his races also and he was going to be beaten at Taunton for me, having watched it back. Maybe STD will make the difference and if he settles him then I could be in trouble – but, he has enough questions now. His best run was when winning at The Festival a couple of year’s back (one of those missed winners at 33s who hit a few micro angles/trends shortlist, Dicky on, urgh, you never forget!) but it’s no surprise to me that he relished the ferocious gallop that day and the strong pace – arguably it’s the only time he’s had such conditions. He won’t get that here for me. He is well handicapped on old form but I am happy to leave him at 13/2. I can see the case, but that looks about right now. Hopefully for my sake he pulls his chance away but even if he doesn’t I think Noel may kick and he’ll have to chase, running out of puff late on. In theory based on LTO, I have Equus covered, if the selection runs his race. The rest of them don’t look good enough to me. Yes plenty are in form, but at a lower level, going up in the weights, and this will be a new test. If the three/four mentioned fluff their lines clearly something has to win but I can’t have them. This looks a golden opportunity for Champagne City and while he’s ‘only’ 9/2, I still think that’s big, and after his last run I’ve been waiting for him to return to a flatter track. He could also be ready to peak on his 3rd run back.

That’s the lot for today. Best of luck.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.05 N – Theatre Guide 8/1

2.40 N – Zalvados 25/1

4.50 N – Silver Hallmark 16/1

D McCain (14/1< guide)

4.40 D – The Herds Garden 7/1

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

3.45 N – Defi Sacre 22/1

Saturday TJC (14/1<)

2.40 N – War Sound  13/2

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Trainers to follow

1.50 D – Gunfleet

1.30 N – Fortunate George 16/1  / Private Malone 18/1

3.10 N – Equus Amadeus 9/1

Jockeys/Chasers

4.35 Navan – Mr Diablo 15/8

2.25 D- Copain De Classe (9/1< best) 9/2

3.35 D – Barney Dwan (9/1< best) 6/1

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

3.45 N – Antunes 7/1

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

NEW! The Cheltenham stats/trends pack:  READ HERE>>>

(i think it’s complete, all 30 pages and 5000+ ‘words’ of it. The 13 target races – I haven’t bothered with stats/trends for The Gold Cup – plus 10 micro angles, all saved. I plan to post all ‘qualifiers’ as starting points, and the trends/stats shortlist for each race, and as with previous years that will be the foundation on which I try to build) 

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February’s Tipping Competition

Don’t forget to post your results below if you haven’t already, the ROI is the magic number. I don’t think anyone will have beaten George’s monster ROI but they’re still worth sharing. I’ll confirm the winner and any ‘discretionary’ prize winners on Sunday morning.

March’s comp will just be focused on Cheltenham.

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Sat big race trends/stats... just the 2.40 this Sat, stats wise…

2.40 Newbury Gold Cup Handicap Chase

10/112, 29p

10/10 had 0-1 chase runs at track (2+ : 0/31, 4p) (1: 6/33,11p, +49)

10/10 had 1-4 chase wins (outside this: 0/23,6p)

9/10 aged 6-8 (9+ : 1/52, 11p)

8/10 top 2 at least once on last three runs

8/10 ran 21-45 days ago (2/59, 11p outside this)

Other

  • OR higher than LTO: 0/28, 6p
  • Claiming jockeys: 4/22, 5p
  • Ran in Grade 3/Listed LTO: 5/25, 6p +40
  • WON LTO: 0/19,2p

Track LTO

  • Kempton: 3/12,4p
  • Chelt: 3/19, 4p
  • X1: Sand/Ascot/Warw/Muss

Trainers (15 renewals)

  • P Nicholls: 8/28, 11p
  • X1: R Dickin/ C Mann/P Hobbs/N Henderson/V Williams/D Pipe

 

Shortlist 

Not the strongest of stats races, but the first three stats leave four…

Happy Diva / Dolos / Nightfly / Azzuri 

The first three of those also hit the 2x 8/10 stats.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

130 Comments

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  • The run continues, a 7/1 winner (10am price) today from the only selection.

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +60.23

    2pt win 2.15 Kelso – Alizee De Janeiro
    1pt win 5.05 Kelso – Aye Right

    HCAP CHASE BETS
    RT+0.94

    2.25 Doncaster – Movie Legend
    3.35 Doncaster – Looking Well

    Francis 12/08/19 9:10 AM Reply


    • Two nice winners Francis. I tracked your tips in Jan but have been on them since 1 Feb. Going well. Both horses showed great heart to stick it out to the line.

      Ken McKenzie 12/08/19 10:33 AM Reply


    • Stuck in a time warp. Tracked in Feb, been on since 1 Mar 🙂

      Ken McKenzie 12/08/19 10:33 AM Reply


      • Was still a good time to start Ken . Shame we were deprived the chance to see if looking well could have completed the hatrick, my sense was probably not but we will never know. Horse up ok, that’s the maaaaanne thing.

        Francis 12/08/19 12:09 PM Reply


    • Francis
      Well done again and don’t be greedy 2 winners and 2 losers i would settle for one winner.
      Cheers
      Colin
      PS tablets nearly finished so next time in Sheffield look forward to that pint or two.

      cleafe 12/08/19 11:28 AM Reply


  • 1/2 + 5

    3 For Tomorrow
    1;50 Newb Gunfleet
    2:05 Newb Shanroe Santos
    2:40 Newb Dolos

    Good Luck

    R

    hannell123 12/08/19 9:10 AM Reply


  • Josh, you make a very convincing case for Happy Diva! Great write up, makes it sound like you’re getting your head focused just in time for Nam. Good Luck.

    chris 12/08/19 9:10 AM Reply


    • Cheers. Well my head feels in a much better place now than it did a couple weeks back. She ticks every box you want ticking in a handicap chase really,bar being a smaller field and the only front runner! She’s unexposed, well handicapped based on form , is in form, progressive, she has the best recent form in the race given horses she’s got close to/beaten etc , conditions ideal, LTO winner and yard going well. She battles and she jumps. Thought 11/2 big given oppo but we will see if I’ve got that right or not! Can’t wait for the challenge that is Cheltenham.

      Josh 12/08/19 12:09 PM Reply


  • For a limited time due to pressure from the Hipster I’m going to post my hard time earned selections for you at no cost. Be assured if these picks hit pay dirt at an exceptional rate I will be expecting plenty of subscriptions of £500 a Month to my new website urasoftouch.com.

    Best bet 8.00 Chelm Lulu Star 2.5 pts EW
    7.30 Chelm Real Estate 2 pts EW
    2.05 Newb Carole’s Destrier 1.5 EW
    more to come dependent as Tim Hanson says, market maturing

    chubnut 12/08/19 9:10 AM Reply


    • Chubnut wrote on yesterday’s page…..
      Tim,
      To be perfectly honest I’m too long in the tooth for some of the supposedly new thinking put up by punters, which nearly always is just a way of cutting the corners off some hard graft. I was intrigued by your posts which seems have an original approach but laziness has left me not knowing what your strategy is, maybe you can give me a date where you explained things. I’m somewhat in the dark as to your selection on Hugh Taylors tip yesterday which you pointed out halved in price. You posted that you needed 10 to get involved and while it went to 11.5 you never mentioned whether this would have been a bet or not. I’m not trying to catch you out or anything but why would any price move during the day effect your original bet seeing as it would appear your bets are predicated on a Betfair drift. Just trying to understand Hombre (smiley)

      I never actually explained anything other than the price I put alongside is given as a guide to the minimum price I would be prepared to accept before advising anyone to follow me in. For the purposes of recording performance it was then decided that the BFSP would be the decider, as that way followers could put the bet up knowing that if it didn’t make the specified odds the bet wouldn’t go down. The thing about that bet yesterday was that it was on my shortlist at a minimum 10.0. When I came to making a decision on whether to post it up I noticed that it had been backed in big time over a very short space of time earlier in the morning. When that happens I don’t scratch them as sometimes they can drift back out given that there is not a lot of liquidity on B/f until later in the day. When I was preparing the final list to post I noticed that it had the green ‘HT’ sign on the attheraces racecard. I knew then as to why the price had dropped and also know that when Hugh Taylor puts one up it’s game over, cos even if it does drift out it is very unlikely to win once he has exposed it in the market.

      The thing is that I don’t look at forecasts, markets, or tipsters until after I complete my shortlists as I know from past experience the subliminal messages from these sources can be very strong and affect your judgement even though punters don’t believe they do.

      My approach is ‘old skool’ really in that once I’ve found a horse of interest, I calculate a minimum price and if I can’t have it, you can stuff it. I’d rather wait it out for something to come along at the kind of odds I need to see rather than accept poor odds about a horse just to have a bet. There is no necessity for a selection to drift, it’s just that you tend to notice the ones that do cos they sometimes come in at ridiculous prices on B/f.

      Tim Hanson 12/08/19 9:47 AM Reply


    • Welcome aboard Chubnut, certainly hope that you have a winning start.
      £500 per month totally selling yourself short!!!
      Good luck today
      Colin

      cleafe 12/08/19 9:47 AM Reply


  • LETS NAIL THIS RACE
    A small gathering of my very few friends that gamble, exchange thoughts on a particular race. If I make a comment on a certain horse, be it positive or negative, its down to others to either have reasons to add to the positive or negative. Eventually the outcome is following the theory of “we know more than those dopey *****” as John Lennon said in his bed, Give handicap theory a chance ( dodgy smiley)

    So 2.05 Newbury to start.
    Shanroe santos and milans bar havent won in class or trip (N)
    Exitas and Marchicah havent won in the going.(N)
    Last samuri. won going, trip and class (P)

    Remember you can add negatives to horses but more important is alternate reasons why positives arent what they seem, it may be a false stat that only you have seen. any info is important, even a hidden reason the 50/1 shot cant win. we’ve found this to be a great earner so lets give it a try.

    chubnut 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


    • so scenario could be Horse X has never won on soft going. but someone finds its been beaten 3 lengths on soft by a horse now 10 lb higher in weights. The big negative has been balanced and the reason that 33/1 shot was unearthed even if not bet.

      chubnut 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


      • These Veteran’s chases are a different beast to your normal races… anyway.. Shantoe… he’s won over 24f, he’s won over 28f, he’s placed over 26f. The trip won’t be the excuse! Class… he has the ability for this.. he’s got within a couple of lengths of Robinsfirth before, and that run two starts back behind beware the bear in a Chelt C2, beaten 5L staying on at the line, is arguably the best recent form in this race, and the best run of his life. His first run in a Veteran’s chase I think, against many on the downgrade who may be outpaced over 26f around here on decent enough ground. He is the overpriced one in this to my eyes.

        Josh 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


  • Josh, what about Joe Farrell, an old friend of ours, in the 2.05 Newbury? 2/6 in chases and so still a bit unexposed. I think that Ziga Boy is interesting, not had a run since Jan 2017 but that may help to increase his odds?

    martin colwell 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


  • Saturday tips:

    2.40 Newbury, Dustin Des Mottes, 1 point each way at 14/1 now. Dr Newland likes to have a go at a handicap chase. The horse has had three runs over fences since arriving from France and is hopefully getting the hang of things. A nice low weight of 10’5” and STD on board.

    3.10 Newbury, Falcon Sun, 2 points win at 8/1 now. Won its last two races well. Improving five year old carrying only 10′ 6” and the Skeltons after another Saturday prize.

    martin colwell 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


  • The run continues, a 7/1 winner (10am price) today from the only selection.

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS
    RT +60.23

    2pt win 2.15 Kelso – Alizee De Janeiro
    1pt win 5.05 Kelso – Aye Right

    HCAP CHASE BETS
    RT+0.94

    2.25 Doncaster – Movie Legend
    3.35 Doncaster – Looking Well

    Francis 01/03/19 7:51 PM Reply


    • Two nice winners Francis. I tracked your tips in Jan but have been on them since 1 Feb. Going well. Both horses showed great heart to stick it out to the line.

      Ken McKenzie 02/03/19 3:40 PM Reply


    • Stuck in a time warp. Tracked in Feb, been on since 1 Mar 🙂

      Ken McKenzie 02/03/19 3:47 PM Reply


      • Was still a good time to start Ken . Shame we were deprived the chance to see if looking well could have completed the hatrick, my sense was probably not but we will never know. Horse up ok, that’s the maaaaanne thing.

        Francis 02/03/19 4:31 PM Reply


    • Francis
      Well done again and don’t be greedy 2 winners and 2 losers i would settle for one winner.
      Cheers
      Colin
      PS tablets nearly finished so next time in Sheffield look forward to that pint or two.

      cleafe 02/03/19 5:44 PM Reply


  • Evening,

    Well that will teach me, although to be fair the outsider of the two gave us a run for our money, next time out at maybe 2m 4f should romp home!!
    Onto tomorrows, Josh is not going to like me, but, ah well.
    14:05 Newbury
    THE LAST SAMURI 6/1 gen 1pt win
    To me this “old” fella is not a veteran yet…seems like only yesterday i was tipping him up in the National he finished 2nd in…ah!! happy memories, hopefully he should turn back the years and on a track i think he will like, (in all his years he has never ran at Newbury, but, his running style, attacking fences, should suit him here at Newbury). He has maybe found a new lease of life under Harry Fry and Noel Fehily is always a workmanlike jockey at these tracks, me personally, i would have him at around 4/1, so , 6`s and above is really generous.
    CAROLES DESTRIER 7/1 PP BFR 1pt win
    I do think the price may have changed before i even finish this, there are certain jockeys in certain situations you need and can rely on, Noel Fehily is one and Tom Scudamore is the other…He takes the leg up again on a horse that has been here before as Josh adhered to, the yard is just starting to find form and I know this fella is bouncing at home and after WALT winning last week I cannot not put this fella in, even at 13/2 / 7/1, back at the place he battle away to win in December he should again be able to thread the eye of a needle and get back to winning ways!

    14:40 Newbury
    DOLOS 8/1 gen 1pt win
    Now you may think I have gone mad, but, i can`t split the three Nicholls runners, so, will dutch all three hoping that at least one of them will win, the reason i cannot split them is the jockey bookings and also their liking for the track..This fella because he is a 6 year old and a tough horse to pass once in front, he could be anything and may be another Cyrname, he could get an easy tow round and Newbury is renowned for finding out horses, so we shall see. Lorcan Williams takes the proverbial 5 off and that could be the difference as he looks to fill Bryony Frost`s boots as the up and coming apprentice within the Nicholls yard. Maybe 8/1 is a tad short, but, the other two make up for it, so, here goes explaining the others!
    WARRIORS TALE 16/1 gen 1pt win
    Now, this fella is as tough as old boots, he battles and will not give up without a fight! I was cheering him on at Aintree when he won the Grand Sefton, now back at a course he has won at before, he likes flat tracks, five out of his six wins have been on flat tracks, he has won twice here and at this distance also, hopefully that blip lto hasn`t affected him and he can once again trounce a big field over his best distance!
    SAN BENEDETO 14/1 gen 1pt win
    This fella runs well fresh, trainer has said he has a good each way chance, so, because of that and knowing what trainers are like at tipping, I shall do him win only haha! Nick Schofield has sat on him 9 times and 3 times he has been a winner with him on board, so, the omens are there for a big run, we shall see.

    As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with all your selections tomorrow / today!

    Stewart 01/03/19 7:58 PM Reply


    • Stay in the zone Stew ( smiley) Like the Carole’s pick, each way nick bet 4 places. For what its worth Tony Carroll’s people made it a cracking EW bet this morning.

      chubnut 01/03/19 8:25 PM Reply


      • 7/1 is not really an each way price I think. Carole’s Destrier seems to be tipped up all over the place and that has forced it down to 6/1. I think that Stewart is correct to go win only in such cases.

        Systems selections: Emma Lavelle handicappers 5/1 +.

        1.30 Newbury, Fortunate George 16/1 and drifting, 1 point each way and Private Malone 16/1 and drifting, 1 point each way. 1.50 Don, Gunfleet 11/2 now, 2 points win. 2.40 Newbury, Javert 10/1 now for 1 point each way.

        Good luck.

        martin colwell 01/03/19 9:37 PM Reply


    • Best of luck Stewart . Clearly I can see the case for Dolos as per write up albeit he is definitely not the next cyrname given he’s already 0/10 at c2 20k+. He could still have a bit in hand but I’d be shocked if he was a grade 1 animal but he’s still young so who knows! I really can’t have the other two given their recent form without an excuse from what I could see. Warriors is open to attack from better handicapped horses now I think. I’m not in the form to be backing 10 year olds in G3 chases that PU LTO but in fairness you are! San B returns the same number of days as per his last run when stuffed by mine and I don’t get the best fresh line of thinking. He’s only had 42 days off. anyway. Nicholls has a great record in this and he’s on fire and maybe it’s that simple! Can see why you’d want to dutch all three given that but I can’t have the other two but you’ve been right plenty more than I have this season. A game of opinions after all and I’ll get my tin hat at the ready! 🙂

      Josh 01/03/19 8:25 PM Reply


      • Hi Josh, it`s odd, as i would say anything over 40 days is a fresh horse, given a rest for one reason or another, so, 42 days just fits into that remit I know, but, as i see it those are the rules I have set for a “fresh” horse. As for PU lto, hoping that was a blip, because if you take that out he was progressing this year, albeit like you say as a 10 year old.. This race has a “I would never have picked that in a month of Sundays!” feel about it, which is why I have gone with 3 darts, previous winners haven`t really shown anything to indicate they could win a race of this nature apart from the stats that you have Josh and as you say, you are entitled to use those to single out the horse likely to win, which 9/10 they do, me on the other hand I like to get the favourite beat, if I feel it is vulnerable, so, will therefore look at Value selections. It is good and competition brings about different thinking and as I`ve said before, if me you and Nick are picking one I lump on, or, lump on as best I can….

        Stewart 02/03/19 10:00 AM Reply


        • haha – yep ok, 42 days as stand alone could be seen as ‘fresh’ to a point, but not in terms of his profile – he ran ‘fresh’ LTO at Ascot and was woeful. (although maybe that was the result of the jab!?) Anyway. 🙂 Warriors has bounced back from poor runs before but the jockey booking was odd also I thought, Dolos jockey could have been on, and Sean is at Donny – if he thought he’d be winning this given the pot I thought he’d be here, and he’s on a Nicholls horse there. But, you’re right in that it’s best not to over-think jockeys.
          An 11/2 shot can still be value 🙂 (as you well know!)
          Josh

          Josh 02/03/19 10:17 AM Reply


        • What stakes level are you backing horses at Stewart? What are we taking per point? Just to understand what level you are operating at.
          Well done on your recent performance. How long have you been at this game and what is your long term performance like? I did not note your selections before 2019.
          Keep up the good work. I enjoy your write ups. I tend to come to the point with tips but enjoy those who provide more selection analysis.

          martin colwell 02/03/19 10:17 AM Reply


          • Hi Martin,

            Normally use variable level staking, the one in Mark Cotons excellent book Value Betting is the one i roughly use, so, at EVENS i would be usually staking 150, 5/1 – 100, 10/1 – 80 and 16/1 – 40, so on, so forth as the odds dictate. I haven`t bet many Even money shots, can`t even remember the last even money shot i bet on…
            My results and selections were always scatter-gun before Nick, Colin, Josh and a couple of the others, (think you may have been one), gave me more focus, have always been able to “pick” them, just not really having enough time has always been key and I noticed that i could only give great thought at weekends and when i was off work etc.
            I have been backing since i was a bookies runner for my Grandad and his mates back in the “pub” days of the 1970`s, used to love running in the bookies with a fistful of slips and handing them over the counter then listening to the tannoy commentry (there were no tv`s in the shops back then and a fella/ lady writing up the odds changes on a wipe board, some of the bookies only had chalk boards), the blokes used to watch the racing in the pub, or, sit there with an old transistor radio, huddled round it listening to the commentary, if the race wasn`t on terrestrial tv….happy days and would love putting on Uncle Arthurs 5p e/w lucky 15 and watch him win a tenner, which back then was a lot!!
            One thing i will always say and you will hear it time and again, always record your bets, i am still a little undisciplined with this, but, it does give you a sense of perception and you should never cheat yourself by not recording the losers, they are as important as the winners and keep you grounded… When i was younger i kidded myself that i was winning, by , just recording the winners, when i did it properly later on during the winter months i could see i was down quite a lot, which meant i was more depressed, as i was going through a lean spell at the time and was re-assessing my selection patterns, yet again, as all punters do….
            So, there you go Martin, hope that answers your question, any other questions will have to wait as I`m off shopping with the ball and chain now, all the best and good luck!!

            Stewart 02/03/19 10:54 AM Reply


            • OK thanks Stewart, I presume that you mean £’s? when you talk of numbers? I bet at £50 per point these days. I cross a number of sports.
              When I got to age 18 I got a Saturday job as a board marker in a William Hill. It was a big white board with markers and a wet sponge. Where I was better at maths than the settler I got promoted to settler number 2 but enjoyed that less and when I graduated to the Thamesmead Town first team squad I had to give it up.
              I do keep good records but I am a qualified Accountant and so have that in built tendency to do so. I did not always make a profit but have done so past 5 years, but as i am full time I need to.

              martin colwell 02/03/19 11:22 AM Reply


    • Just outstanding again Stewart. Thank you.

      steveindisguise 02/03/19 2:46 PM Reply


    • Well I doff my cap and i’ll eat my humble pie. My day just gets worse, i can’t believe she’s come down there. Painful. Never knowing but that will clearly teach me. Lovely ride o San B. Great day for you again. Well done.

      Josh 02/03/19 2:47 PM Reply


      • The horse actually won the race, so, who knows, maybe with a jockey on its back….? It`s all good fun and i thought i would go close with one race, definitely not two..I may pay for this come Cheltenham time, but, the funds are up and i enjoy Aintree more….especially with ULTRAGOLD on the horizon now…..still can`t believe he is 40/1 and i have filled my boots with another couple of fiver each ways on a couple of high street bookies today, whilst i was out! when he gets beat in the cross country we should be looking at the price drifting out again to 50`s, thank heavens for Gigginstown and their love of the National!

        Stewart 02/03/19 7:54 PM Reply


        • As in, compacting the market and making our horses longer odds!

          Stewart 02/03/19 7:56 PM Reply


        • ha, well I hope you’re not using up all your good fortune! I’d have thought Theatre Guide would have won but for clouting the last but then again maybe not, as he is a monkey now in his old age. But had he pinged it you’d have thought that was race over.
          Happy Diva was just annoying given how she’d jumped, and how she was travelling, in the right spot. I’m as confident as I can be she’d have been leading over 2 out, but yours may have nabbed her anyway. Impossible to know. My EW money would have certainly been safe if she’d have got round!

          Ultra Gold – best of luck, I can’t see him staying, I don’t think he stays 26f, but the evidence, and my record in the race, would suggest my view isn’t worth much! I could see a plodding on placed effort given his liking for the fences but think they’ll be classier/stronger stayers on the day.
          Josh

          Josh 02/03/19 8:52 PM Reply


  • 1/2 + 5

    3 For Tomorrow
    1;50 Newb Gunfleet
    2:05 Newb Shanroe Santos
    2:40 Newb Dolos

    Good Luck

    R

    hannell123 01/03/19 8:25 PM Reply


  • Josh, you make a very convincing case for Happy Diva! Great write up, makes it sound like you’re getting your head focused just in time for Nam. Good Luck.

    chris 01/03/19 8:47 PM Reply


    • Cheers. Well my head feels in a much better place now than it did a couple weeks back. She ticks every box you want ticking in a handicap chase really,bar being a smaller field and the only front runner! She’s unexposed, well handicapped based on form , is in form, progressive, she has the best recent form in the race given horses she’s got close to/beaten etc , conditions ideal, LTO winner and yard going well. She battles and she jumps. Thought 11/2 big given oppo but we will see if I’ve got that right or not! Can’t wait for the challenge that is Cheltenham.

      Josh 01/03/19 9:37 PM Reply


  • RT -6
    345 Nb Dostal Phil 7/2
    135 L Smiley Bagel 4/1
    250 L Corinthia Knight 3/1
    355 K Western Rules 5/4
    150 D Faithful mount 10/1
    335 D Rocky’s Treasure 9/4
    700 Ch Human Nature 11/4
    800 Ch Lulu Star 8/1
    145 Nav Coolonolook 12/1
    510 Nav Multifactorial 9/4
    450 Nb Chantry House 5/4

    kevo19 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


  • For a limited time due to pressure from the Hipster I’m going to post my hard time earned selections for you at no cost. Be assured if these picks hit pay dirt at an exceptional rate I will be expecting plenty of subscriptions of £500 a Month to my new website urasoftouch.com.

    Best bet 8.00 Chelm Lulu Star 2.5 pts EW
    7.30 Chelm Real Estate 2 pts EW
    2.05 Newb Carole’s Destrier 1.5 EW
    more to come dependent as Tim Hanson says, market maturing

    chubnut 01/03/19 9:10 PM Reply


    • Chubnut wrote on yesterday’s page…..
      Tim,
      To be perfectly honest I’m too long in the tooth for some of the supposedly new thinking put up by punters, which nearly always is just a way of cutting the corners off some hard graft. I was intrigued by your posts which seems have an original approach but laziness has left me not knowing what your strategy is, maybe you can give me a date where you explained things. I’m somewhat in the dark as to your selection on Hugh Taylors tip yesterday which you pointed out halved in price. You posted that you needed 10 to get involved and while it went to 11.5 you never mentioned whether this would have been a bet or not. I’m not trying to catch you out or anything but why would any price move during the day effect your original bet seeing as it would appear your bets are predicated on a Betfair drift. Just trying to understand Hombre (smiley)

      I never actually explained anything other than the price I put alongside is given as a guide to the minimum price I would be prepared to accept before advising anyone to follow me in. For the purposes of recording performance it was then decided that the BFSP would be the decider, as that way followers could put the bet up knowing that if it didn’t make the specified odds the bet wouldn’t go down. The thing about that bet yesterday was that it was on my shortlist at a minimum 10.0. When I came to making a decision on whether to post it up I noticed that it had been backed in big time over a very short space of time earlier in the morning. When that happens I don’t scratch them as sometimes they can drift back out given that there is not a lot of liquidity on B/f until later in the day. When I was preparing the final list to post I noticed that it had the green ‘HT’ sign on the attheraces racecard. I knew then as to why the price had dropped and also know that when Hugh Taylor puts one up it’s game over, cos even if it does drift out it is very unlikely to win once he has exposed it in the market.

      The thing is that I don’t look at forecasts, markets, or tipsters until after I complete my shortlists as I know from past experience the subliminal messages from these sources can be very strong and affect your judgement even though punters don’t believe they do.

      My approach is ‘old skool’ really in that once I’ve found a horse of interest, I calculate a minimum price and if I can’t have it, you can stuff it. I’d rather wait it out for something to come along at the kind of odds I need to see rather than accept poor odds about a horse just to have a bet. There is no necessity for a selection to drift, it’s just that you tend to notice the ones that do cos they sometimes come in at ridiculous prices on B/f.

      Tim Hanson 02/03/19 10:00 AM Reply


    • Welcome aboard Chubnut, certainly hope that you have a winning start.
      £500 per month totally selling yourself short!!!
      Good luck today
      Colin

      cleafe 02/03/19 10:34 AM Reply


  • LETS NAIL THIS RACE
    A small gathering of my very few friends that gamble, exchange thoughts on a particular race. If I make a comment on a certain horse, be it positive or negative, its down to others to either have reasons to add to the positive or negative. Eventually the outcome is following the theory of “we know more than those dopey *****” as John Lennon said in his bed, Give handicap theory a chance ( dodgy smiley)

    So 2.05 Newbury to start.
    Shanroe santos and milans bar havent won in class or trip (N)
    Exitas and Marchicah havent won in the going.(N)
    Last samuri. won going, trip and class (P)

    Remember you can add negatives to horses but more important is alternate reasons why positives arent what they seem, it may be a false stat that only you have seen. any info is important, even a hidden reason the 50/1 shot cant win. we’ve found this to be a great earner so lets give it a try.

    chubnut 01/03/19 9:53 PM Reply


    • so scenario could be Horse X has never won on soft going. but someone finds its been beaten 3 lengths on soft by a horse now 10 lb higher in weights. The big negative has been balanced and the reason that 33/1 shot was unearthed even if not bet.

      chubnut 01/03/19 10:12 PM Reply


      • These Veteran’s chases are a different beast to your normal races… anyway.. Shantoe… he’s won over 24f, he’s won over 28f, he’s placed over 26f. The trip won’t be the excuse! Class… he has the ability for this.. he’s got within a couple of lengths of Robinsfirth before, and that run two starts back behind beware the bear in a Chelt C2, beaten 5L staying on at the line, is arguably the best recent form in this race, and the best run of his life. His first run in a Veteran’s chase I think, against many on the downgrade who may be outpaced over 26f around here on decent enough ground. He is the overpriced one in this to my eyes.

        Josh 02/03/19 9:09 AM Reply


  • Josh, what about Joe Farrell, an old friend of ours, in the 2.05 Newbury? 2/6 in chases and so still a bit unexposed. I think that Ziga Boy is interesting, not had a run since Jan 2017 but that may help to increase his odds?

    martin colwell 01/03/19 10:02 PM Reply


  • Saturday tips:

    2.40 Newbury, Dustin Des Mottes, 1 point each way at 14/1 now. Dr Newland likes to have a go at a handicap chase. The horse has had three runs over fences since arriving from France and is hopefully getting the hang of things. A nice low weight of 10’5” and STD on board.

    3.10 Newbury, Falcon Sun, 2 points win at 8/1 now. Won its last two races well. Improving five year old carrying only 10′ 6” and the Skeltons after another Saturday prize.

    martin colwell 01/03/19 10:16 PM Reply


  • today’s selections, very open races so only 1/4 pt ew.
    Newbury.
    2-05. Exitas 22-1 4 places
    2-40. Warriors Tale 14-1 5 places
    3-10. Ebony Gale 14-1

    Martin Whittle 02/03/19 1:26 AM Reply


    • adding one,
      Newbury 1-30. Hallings Comet 20-1

      Martin Whittle 02/03/19 8:15 AM Reply


      • Exitas n/r, replace with The Last Samuri 11-2

        Martin Whittle 02/03/19 8:25 AM Reply


  • What would be the Tipster comp selections

    Newbury
    1:30 Bally Longford
    2:40 Javert
    3:10 flying tiger

    Chelmsford
    6:00 Solar heights

    Kelso
    2:45 One for arthur

    Warren Bottomley 02/03/19 1:55 AM Reply


  • RT -6
    345 Nb Dostal Phil 7/2
    135 L Smiley Bagel 4/1
    250 L Corinthia Knight 3/1
    355 K Western Rules 5/4
    150 D Faithful mount 10/1
    335 D Rocky’s Treasure 9/4
    700 Ch Human Nature 11/4
    800 Ch Lulu Star 8/1
    145 Nav Coolonolook 12/1
    510 Nav Multifactorial 9/4
    450 Nb Chantry House 5/4

    kevo19 02/03/19 2:00 AM Reply


  • Hi all, my three for today.

    NEWBURY 14:05 THE LAST SAMURI @ 7.0
    15:10 FALCONS SUN @ 11.0
    15:45 PRECIOUS BOUNTY @ 9.0

    G.L.
    Solent

    solentmagpie 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


  • Hi everyone last night I was playing about on the inform racing system builder and just went track specific Newbury Handicaps, quite basic rules from 2018 until now which are, race distance 1m7f to 3m 2f, over 8 runners, bsp between 6 and 20, 35 days or less since last run, LTO rating rank between 1 and 7, the numbers read, Runs=71, wins=11, 15.49%SR, Profit to SP=27.00, Profit to BSP=35.50, Placed 34, Placed SR=47.89%, Profit to Place BSP=39.12, Win/Lose streak1/11, Min/Max BSP 6.29/19. the selections it has come up with today are as follows,
    1.30, Bally Longford, Halling’s Comet, Betameche, as it stands only Bally Longford would qualify due to price restrictions.
    2.05 Houblon Des Obeaux, Shanroe Santos, both qualify at the moment.
    2.40 Dolos, Zalvados, at the moment only Dolos, Zalvados currently at 28 on betfair.
    3.10 Champagne City, Equus Amadeus, Duarigle,Maquisard all qualify at the moment.
    3.45 West Drive, Megalodon,Ravenous, none of them qualify at the moment due to price.
    be interesting to see how they good, good luck with all your selections today.

    Greg Phillips 12/08/19 9:47 AM Reply


  • even after 40 odd years the markets still bewilder me, Hallings Comet was 14-1 late last night with every bookie so when i saw 34’s available on BF a grabbed a couple of quid, trading at 20,s this morning around 9am have come home to see it out to 28’s and still drifting 42’s now available on BF and i thought the 14’s was about right so just shows how much i know.

    Martin Whittle 12/08/19 9:47 AM Reply


    • I’ve had €2 @ 70 to stop it. Connections wouldn’t let it win unbacked

      chubnut 12/08/19 10:33 AM Reply


  • Be posting at 2.00 and 4.30

    Tim Hanson 12/08/19 10:24 AM Reply


    • Is my account working Josh? I seem to have lost the bets I posted.

      Tim Hanson 12/08/19 12:09 PM Reply


      • Newb’ 3.00 Bonza Girl…….. 7.0
        Newb’ 4.15 Air Navigator…. 8.4
        Ling’ 4.20 Zorro’s Girl……. 5.5

        Tim Hanson 12/08/19 1:20 PM Reply


  • Unusually this selection does not start from a Pace angle.
    2.05 Newbury 1pt e/w Joe Farrell 11/1 BF 10/1 generally
    Comes here off a break of 315 days but has won off breaks of 137, 494 and 90days.
    Choppers Curtis recent form ok, has won on good and soft so going holds no fears.
    Only 7th run over fences but has the assistance of maestro chase jockey Tom O’Brien.
    Most importantly he is only a 10yo and as a bonus drops in class.
    Hugh

    alpha2 12/08/19 10:24 AM Reply


    • Just seen Josh’s freepost rejection of Joe Farrell. Hopefully Choppers is trying to put us all away with her quote that he will need the run. His fto after a break stats are pretty exceptional. Here’s hoping.
      Hugh

      alpha2 12/08/19 12:09 PM Reply


      • Yep, we will see. She wouldn’t be one to do that deliberately. Oh he can be readied fresh, it’s just different this time as he’s definitely being aimed at the spring nationals. I’d be surprised if he’s a1, and he suffered a training set back and they’ve rushed him back a tad. Can just about live with him winning at 9s- I mean if he’s fit and runs his race he would be the one to beat for sure.
        Nicholls has plenty where he thinks they will need the run,tells owners not to back them, only to see them win!

        Josh 12/08/19 1:20 PM Reply


  • AS SAD AS I AM HERE IS A LIST OF THE HORSES THAT HAVE HAD MORE THAN ONE TIP BY US SO FAR 🙂 : ( EACH SMILEY FACE ICON IS HOW MANY TIMES TIPPED)
    1.30 NEWBURY
    BALLY LONGFORD
    HALLINGS COMET
    1.50 NEWBURY
    FAITHFUL MOUNT
    2.05 NEWBURY
    THEATRE GUIDE
    THE LAST SAMURAI
    CAROLES DESTRIER
    SHANROE SANTOS
    JOE FARRELL (MENTIONS/THEORIES ANYWAY )
    2.15 KELSO
    ALIZEE DE JANEIRO
    2.40 NEWBURY
    DOLOS
    WARRIORS TALE
    SAN BENEDICTO
    SHANAHANS TURN
    ZALVADOS
    3.10 NEWBURY
    EBONY GALE
    EQUUS AMADEUS
    FALCON SUN
    8.00 CHELMSFORD
    LULU STAR

    GL/GB
    p.s. got over exited and nearly lost my shirt & bank balance yesterday …….. recovered some back by the end of play ( bad old days coming back to haunt me 🙁 ) back to small level staking again today for me 🙂

    George B 12/08/19 10:33 AM Reply


  • if at first you ……………………try try try try try again (normally my downfall)
    1.30 NEWBURY
    BALLY LONGFORD
    HALLINGS COMET 🙂 🙂
    1.50 NEWBURY
    FAITHFUL MOUNT 🙂 🙂
    2.05 NEWBURY
    THEATRE GUIDE 🙂 🙂 🙂
    THE LAST SAMURAI 🙂 🙂 🙂
    CAROLES DESTRIER 🙂 🙂
    SHANROE SANTOS 🙂 🙂 🙂
    JOE FARRELL (MENTIONS/THEORIES ANYWAY ) 🙂 🙂
    2.15 KELSO
    ALIZEE DE JANEIRO 🙂 🙂
    2.40 NEWBURY
    DOLOS 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    WARRIORS TALE 🙂 🙂 🙂
    SAN BENEDICTO 🙂 🙂
    SHANAHANS TURN 🙂 🙂
    ZALVADOS 🙂 🙂 🙂
    3.10 NEWBURY
    EBONY GALE 🙂 🙂
    EQUUS AMADEUS 🙂 🙂
    FALCON SUN 🙂 🙂
    8.00 CHELMSFORD
    LULU STAR 🙂 🙂

    George B 12/08/19 10:33 AM Reply


    • Love the smiley face way of posting up top tips, brilliant!

      Stewart 12/08/19 12:09 PM Reply


    • I like this, good idea!

      Darren C 12/08/19 12:09 PM Reply


  • ITV 7.

    Bordeaux Bill
    Race 1 – 13:50 Doncaster
    The Last Samuri
    Race 2 – 14:05 Newbury
    Warriors Tale
    Race 3 – 14:40 Newbury
    Two In One
    Race 4 – 14:55 Navan
    Papagana
    Race 5 – 15:00 Doncaster
    Ebony Gale
    Race 6 – 15:10 Newbury
    Chidswell
    Race 7 – 15:35 Doncaster
    7p ew accum for 1/4 million 🙂

    Martin Whittle 02/03/19 8:28 AM Reply


  • From the free post… 2.05 Newbury – Shanroe Santos 1 point win 11/1.

    Josh 02/03/19 9:02 AM Reply


  • Hi all, my three for today.

    NEWBURY 14:05 THE LAST SAMURI @ 7.0
    15:10 FALCONS SUN @ 11.0
    15:45 PRECIOUS BOUNTY @ 9.0

    G.L.
    Solent

    solentmagpie 02/03/19 9:25 AM Reply


  • Hi George. That is very helpful especially on big days like today.
    Any thoughts on a few more of these. Cheltenham maybe ?

    jc3152 12/08/19 10:33 AM Reply


  • Josh,

    Tim’s picks have disappeared. Any idea what’s happened?

    Ken McKenzie 12/08/19 10:33 AM Reply


    • sorry, they’re back, tried to delete one above and below but removed all of them.

      Josh 12/08/19 12:09 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    2.40 Newbury Shanahan’s Turn BOG 33/1
    3.20 Lingfield Chevallier BOG 7/1
    4.40 Doncaster Zig Zag BOG 5/2

    ELITE BETS
    2.40 Newbury Zalvados BOG 25/1
    3.20 Lingfield Sha La La La Lee BOG 7/2
    8.00 Chelmsford Red Cossack BOG 15/2
    Colin

    cleafe 02/03/19 10:04 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    N 1.30 – Hit TheHighway on 3rd run @ 11
    N 3.45 – Megalodon on 1st run @ 28
    Festival
    N 2.05 – Milansbar on 2nd run @ 25
    N 3.10 – Champagne City on 1st run @ 9/2
    …………Flying Tiger on 7th run @ 7
    Nav 4.35 – Mr Diablo on 1st run @ 15/8
    AW
    L 3.20 – Sea Fox on 6th run @ 14
    3m+
    N 2.05 – The Last Samurai on 2nd run @ 6
    N 2.40 – Shanahans Turn on 5th run @ 33

    GL

    Titus 02/03/19 10:24 AM Reply


  • Hi everyone last night I was playing about on the inform racing system builder and just went track specific Newbury Handicaps, quite basic rules from 2018 until now which are, race distance 1m7f to 3m 2f, over 8 runners, bsp between 6 and 20, 35 days or less since last run, LTO rating rank between 1 and 7, the numbers read, Runs=71, wins=11, 15.49%SR, Profit to SP=27.00, Profit to BSP=35.50, Placed 34, Placed SR=47.89%, Profit to Place BSP=39.12, Win/Lose streak1/11, Min/Max BSP 6.29/19. the selections it has come up with today are as follows,
    1.30, Bally Longford, Halling’s Comet, Betameche, as it stands only Bally Longford would qualify due to price restrictions.
    2.05 Houblon Des Obeaux, Shanroe Santos, both qualify at the moment.
    2.40 Dolos, Zalvados, at the moment only Dolos, Zalvados currently at 28 on betfair.
    3.10 Champagne City, Equus Amadeus, Duarigle,Maquisard all qualify at the moment.
    3.45 West Drive, Megalodon,Ravenous, none of them qualify at the moment due to price.
    be interesting to see how they good, good luck with all your selections today.

    Greg Phillips 02/03/19 11:31 AM Reply


  • even after 40 odd years the markets still bewilder me, Hallings Comet was 14-1 late last night with every bookie so when i saw 34’s available on BF a grabbed a couple of quid, trading at 20,s this morning around 9am have come home to see it out to 28’s and still drifting 42’s now available on BF and i thought the 14’s was about right so just shows how much i know.

    Martin Whittle 02/03/19 11:33 AM Reply


    • I’ve had €2 @ 70 to stop it. Connections wouldn’t let it win unbacked

      chubnut 02/03/19 1:07 PM Reply


  • G, surely they should be frowning faces for the most part 🙂

    Mark Curtis 12/08/19 10:33 AM Reply


    • mine’s a ‘staring down the bottom of a whisky bottle face’ at the moment! 🙂 If luck is such a thing I’m using all my bad luck up before the festival season I hope! Or just being punished for the audacity of going with horses under 8s in big sat handicap! 🙁

      Josh 12/08/19 12:09 PM Reply


      • Chin up Josh you were on the right lines, just unlucky. Pesky fences eh?

        Mark Curtis 12/08/19 1:20 PM Reply


  • just i thought i would count up and see what we had all picked today 🙂 …… i am glad i am not the only one treading water at the mo ! 🙁 Hope you doing better than most 🙂 . I am doing 3 horses in a race and they seem to be coming in 2nd 3rd and 4th !! .. here you go as i speak lazarus 16.40 doncaster done it to win .. comes tird !! time to give up me thinks for today 🙁
    gl/gb
    got any winners for me ?? 🙂

    George B 11/08/19 7:28 PM Reply


    • I know the feeling! Carole’s saved the day and paid for the large number of losing bets. No stats picks today (thank goodness I hear you say :-)) but for what it’s worth here are what I’m on tonight:

      18.30 Temur Khan (Mr P riding for Mr C , worth a second look?)

      19.00, Walk on Walter

      19.30 Aguerroo and Real Estate

      Have a great Saturday night, over and out

      Mark Curtis 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


      • Good man glad i can rely on you to keep picking out those winners in the face of adversity 🙂 .. solar heights just halved my losses so small mercies 🙂
        now going to go e/w on PRINCELY 7.30 Chelmsford trainer in form jockey in form .. good enough for me 🙂 ( with small savers on your two 🙂 )
        tomorrow is of course another day 🙂
        gl/gb 🙂

        George B 11/08/19 11:40 PM Reply


  • Be posting at 2.00 and 4.30

    Tim Hanson 02/03/19 12:03 PM Reply


    • Is my account working Josh? I seem to have lost the bets I posted.

      Tim Hanson 02/03/19 2:05 PM Reply


      • Newb’ 3.00 Bonza Girl…….. 7.0
        Newb’ 4.15 Air Navigator…. 8.4
        Ling’ 4.20 Zorro’s Girl……. 5.5

        Tim Hanson 02/03/19 2:08 PM Reply


        • Ignore that last post Josh. Tried again and it worked fine.

          Tim Hanson 02/03/19 2:09 PM Reply


          • Nothing tonight at Chelmsford.

            Tim Hanson 02/03/19 4:30 PM Reply


  • Unusually this selection does not start from a Pace angle.
    2.05 Newbury 1pt e/w Joe Farrell 11/1 BF 10/1 generally
    Comes here off a break of 315 days but has won off breaks of 137, 494 and 90days.
    Choppers Curtis recent form ok, has won on good and soft so going holds no fears.
    Only 7th run over fences but has the assistance of maestro chase jockey Tom O’Brien.
    Most importantly he is only a 10yo and as a bonus drops in class.
    Hugh

    alpha2 02/03/19 12:03 PM Reply


    • Just seen Josh’s freepost rejection of Joe Farrell. Hopefully Choppers is trying to put us all away with her quote that he will need the run. His fto after a break stats are pretty exceptional. Here’s hoping.
      Hugh

      alpha2 02/03/19 12:10 PM Reply


      • Yep, we will see. She wouldn’t be one to do that deliberately. Oh he can be readied fresh, it’s just different this time as he’s definitely being aimed at the spring nationals. I’d be surprised if he’s a1, and he suffered a training set back and they’ve rushed him back a tad. Can just about live with him winning at 9s- I mean if he’s fit and runs his race he would be the one to beat for sure.
        Nicholls has plenty where he thinks they will need the run,tells owners not to back them, only to see them win!

        Josh 02/03/19 12:27 PM Reply


  • AS SAD AS I AM HERE IS A LIST OF THE HORSES THAT HAVE HAD MORE THAN ONE TIP BY US SO FAR 🙂 : ( EACH SMILEY FACE ICON IS HOW MANY TIMES TIPPED)
    1.30 NEWBURY
    BALLY LONGFORD
    HALLINGS COMET
    1.50 NEWBURY
    FAITHFUL MOUNT
    2.05 NEWBURY
    THEATRE GUIDE
    THE LAST SAMURAI
    CAROLES DESTRIER
    SHANROE SANTOS
    JOE FARRELL (MENTIONS/THEORIES ANYWAY )
    2.15 KELSO
    ALIZEE DE JANEIRO
    2.40 NEWBURY
    DOLOS
    WARRIORS TALE
    SAN BENEDICTO
    SHANAHANS TURN
    ZALVADOS
    3.10 NEWBURY
    EBONY GALE
    EQUUS AMADEUS
    FALCON SUN
    8.00 CHELMSFORD
    LULU STAR

    GL/GB
    p.s. got over exited and nearly lost my shirt & bank balance yesterday …….. recovered some back by the end of play ( bad old days coming back to haunt me 🙁 ) back to small level staking again today for me 🙂

    George B 02/03/19 12:50 PM Reply


  • if at first you ……………………try try try try try again (normally my downfall)
    1.30 NEWBURY
    BALLY LONGFORD
    HALLINGS COMET 🙂 🙂
    1.50 NEWBURY
    FAITHFUL MOUNT 🙂 🙂
    2.05 NEWBURY
    THEATRE GUIDE 🙂 🙂 🙂
    THE LAST SAMURAI 🙂 🙂 🙂
    CAROLES DESTRIER 🙂 🙂
    SHANROE SANTOS 🙂 🙂 🙂
    JOE FARRELL (MENTIONS/THEORIES ANYWAY ) 🙂 🙂
    2.15 KELSO
    ALIZEE DE JANEIRO 🙂 🙂
    2.40 NEWBURY
    DOLOS 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    WARRIORS TALE 🙂 🙂 🙂
    SAN BENEDICTO 🙂 🙂
    SHANAHANS TURN 🙂 🙂
    ZALVADOS 🙂 🙂 🙂
    3.10 NEWBURY
    EBONY GALE 🙂 🙂
    EQUUS AMADEUS 🙂 🙂
    FALCON SUN 🙂 🙂
    8.00 CHELMSFORD
    LULU STAR 🙂 🙂

    George B 02/03/19 12:58 PM Reply


    • Love the smiley face way of posting up top tips, brilliant!

      Stewart 02/03/19 1:25 PM Reply


    • I like this, good idea!

      Darren C 02/03/19 3:20 PM Reply


  • Hi George. That is very helpful especially on big days like today.
    Any thoughts on a few more of these. Cheltenham maybe ?

    jc3152 02/03/19 3:00 PM Reply


  • Josh,

    Tim’s picks have disappeared. Any idea what’s happened?

    Ken McKenzie 02/03/19 3:01 PM Reply


    • sorry, they’re back, tried to delete one above and below but removed all of them.

      Josh 02/03/19 3:02 PM Reply


  • thanks for real estate mc .. saved my betting life ..literally 🙂

    George B 11/08/19 7:28 PM Reply


    • All good in the hood then 🙂 Having a day off tomorrow as no AW, have a good one Gmeister

      Mark Curtis 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


  • G, surely they should be frowning faces for the most part 🙂

    Mark Curtis 02/03/19 4:37 PM Reply


    • mine’s a ‘staring down the bottom of a whisky bottle face’ at the moment! 🙂 If luck is such a thing I’m using all my bad luck up before the festival season I hope! Or just being punished for the audacity of going with horses under 8s in big sat handicap! 🙁

      Josh 02/03/19 5:24 PM Reply


      • Chin up Josh you were on the right lines, just unlucky. Pesky fences eh?

        Mark Curtis 02/03/19 5:51 PM Reply


        • And hurdles haha. CC made a howler that cost him and Happy D just annoying given how she was travelling and her track position. she’d have been top 2 if standing up but you have to jump! She will hack up in a handicap off that mark. I mean if Theatre Guide had jumped the last he wins and then given his SP I’d have had further cause for a drink haha. That’s the game. Chin is up. It will all click at some point.

          Josh 02/03/19 6:40 PM Reply


  • just i thought i would count up and see what we had all picked today 🙂 …… i am glad i am not the only one treading water at the mo ! 🙁 Hope you doing better than most 🙂 . I am doing 3 horses in a race and they seem to be coming in 2nd 3rd and 4th !! .. here you go as i speak lazarus 16.40 doncaster done it to win .. comes tird !! time to give up me thinks for today 🙁
    gl/gb
    got any winners for me ?? 🙂

    George B 02/03/19 4:46 PM Reply


    • I know the feeling! Carole’s saved the day and paid for the large number of losing bets. No stats picks today (thank goodness I hear you say :-)) but for what it’s worth here are what I’m on tonight:

      18.30 Temur Khan (Mr P riding for Mr C , worth a second look?)

      19.00, Walk on Walter

      19.30 Aguerroo and Real Estate

      Have a great Saturday night, over and out

      Mark Curtis 02/03/19 5:28 PM Reply


      • Good man glad i can rely on you to keep picking out those winners in the face of adversity 🙂 .. solar heights just halved my losses so small mercies 🙂
        now going to go e/w on PRINCELY 7.30 Chelmsford trainer in form jockey in form .. good enough for me 🙂 ( with small savers on your two 🙂 )
        tomorrow is of course another day 🙂
        gl/gb 🙂

        George B 02/03/19 6:15 PM Reply


        • Lol, would just point out these are selections, not winners! Yet! Just gonna check out your selection, then crack another tin of John Smiths 🙂

          Mark Curtis 02/03/19 6:23 PM Reply


  • thanks for real estate mc .. saved my betting life ..literally 🙂

    George B 02/03/19 8:41 PM Reply


    • All good in the hood then 🙂 Having a day off tomorrow as no AW, have a good one Gmeister

      Mark Curtis 02/03/19 9:02 PM Reply


  • From the free post… 2.05 Newbury – Shanroe Santos 1 point win 11/1.

    Josh 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


  • today’s selections, very open races so only 1/4 pt ew.
    Newbury.
    2-05. Exitas 22-1 4 places
    2-40. Warriors Tale 14-1 5 places
    3-10. Ebony Gale 14-1

    Martin Whittle 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


    • adding one,
      Newbury 1-30. Hallings Comet 20-1

      Martin Whittle 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


      • Exitas n/r, replace with The Last Samuri 11-2

        Martin Whittle 11/08/19 11:40 PM Reply


  • Evening,

    Well that will teach me, although to be fair the outsider of the two gave us a run for our money, next time out at maybe 2m 4f should romp home!!
    Onto tomorrows, Josh is not going to like me, but, ah well.
    14:05 Newbury
    THE LAST SAMURI 6/1 gen 1pt win
    To me this “old” fella is not a veteran yet…seems like only yesterday i was tipping him up in the National he finished 2nd in…ah!! happy memories, hopefully he should turn back the years and on a track i think he will like, (in all his years he has never ran at Newbury, but, his running style, attacking fences, should suit him here at Newbury). He has maybe found a new lease of life under Harry Fry and Noel Fehily is always a workmanlike jockey at these tracks, me personally, i would have him at around 4/1, so , 6`s and above is really generous.
    CAROLES DESTRIER 7/1 PP BFR 1pt win
    I do think the price may have changed before i even finish this, there are certain jockeys in certain situations you need and can rely on, Noel Fehily is one and Tom Scudamore is the other…He takes the leg up again on a horse that has been here before as Josh adhered to, the yard is just starting to find form and I know this fella is bouncing at home and after WALT winning last week I cannot not put this fella in, even at 13/2 / 7/1, back at the place he battle away to win in December he should again be able to thread the eye of a needle and get back to winning ways!

    14:40 Newbury
    DOLOS 8/1 gen 1pt win
    Now you may think I have gone mad, but, i can`t split the three Nicholls runners, so, will dutch all three hoping that at least one of them will win, the reason i cannot split them is the jockey bookings and also their liking for the track..This fella because he is a 6 year old and a tough horse to pass once in front, he could be anything and may be another Cyrname, he could get an easy tow round and Newbury is renowned for finding out horses, so we shall see. Lorcan Williams takes the proverbial 5 off and that could be the difference as he looks to fill Bryony Frost`s boots as the up and coming apprentice within the Nicholls yard. Maybe 8/1 is a tad short, but, the other two make up for it, so, here goes explaining the others!
    WARRIORS TALE 16/1 gen 1pt win
    Now, this fella is as tough as old boots, he battles and will not give up without a fight! I was cheering him on at Aintree when he won the Grand Sefton, now back at a course he has won at before, he likes flat tracks, five out of his six wins have been on flat tracks, he has won twice here and at this distance also, hopefully that blip lto hasn`t affected him and he can once again trounce a big field over his best distance!
    SAN BENEDETO 14/1 gen 1pt win
    This fella runs well fresh, trainer has said he has a good each way chance, so, because of that and knowing what trainers are like at tipping, I shall do him win only haha! Nick Schofield has sat on him 9 times and 3 times he has been a winner with him on board, so, the omens are there for a big run, we shall see.

    As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with all your selections tomorrow / today!

    Stewart 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


    • Stay in the zone Stew ( smiley) Like the Carole’s pick, each way nick bet 4 places. For what its worth Tony Carroll’s people made it a cracking EW bet this morning.

      chubnut 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


      • 7/1 is not really an each way price I think. Carole’s Destrier seems to be tipped up all over the place and that has forced it down to 6/1. I think that Stewart is correct to go win only in such cases.

        Systems selections: Emma Lavelle handicappers 5/1 +.

        1.30 Newbury, Fortunate George 16/1 and drifting, 1 point each way and Private Malone 16/1 and drifting, 1 point each way. 1.50 Don, Gunfleet 11/2 now, 2 points win. 2.40 Newbury, Javert 10/1 now for 1 point each way.

        Good luck.

        martin colwell 11/08/19 11:40 PM Reply


    • Best of luck Stewart . Clearly I can see the case for Dolos as per write up albeit he is definitely not the next cyrname given he’s already 0/10 at c2 20k+. He could still have a bit in hand but I’d be shocked if he was a grade 1 animal but he’s still young so who knows! I really can’t have the other two given their recent form without an excuse from what I could see. Warriors is open to attack from better handicapped horses now I think. I’m not in the form to be backing 10 year olds in G3 chases that PU LTO but in fairness you are! San B returns the same number of days as per his last run when stuffed by mine and I don’t get the best fresh line of thinking. He’s only had 42 days off. anyway. Nicholls has a great record in this and he’s on fire and maybe it’s that simple! Can see why you’d want to dutch all three given that but I can’t have the other two but you’ve been right plenty more than I have this season. A game of opinions after all and I’ll get my tin hat at the ready! 🙂

      Josh 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


      • Hi Josh, it`s odd, as i would say anything over 40 days is a fresh horse, given a rest for one reason or another, so, 42 days just fits into that remit I know, but, as i see it those are the rules I have set for a “fresh” horse. As for PU lto, hoping that was a blip, because if you take that out he was progressing this year, albeit like you say as a 10 year old.. This race has a “I would never have picked that in a month of Sundays!” feel about it, which is why I have gone with 3 darts, previous winners haven`t really shown anything to indicate they could win a race of this nature apart from the stats that you have Josh and as you say, you are entitled to use those to single out the horse likely to win, which 9/10 they do, me on the other hand I like to get the favourite beat, if I feel it is vulnerable, so, will therefore look at Value selections. It is good and competition brings about different thinking and as I`ve said before, if me you and Nick are picking one I lump on, or, lump on as best I can….

        Stewart 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


        • haha – yep ok, 42 days as stand alone could be seen as ‘fresh’ to a point, but not in terms of his profile – he ran ‘fresh’ LTO at Ascot and was woeful. (although maybe that was the result of the jab!?) Anyway. 🙂 Warriors has bounced back from poor runs before but the jockey booking was odd also I thought, Dolos jockey could have been on, and Sean is at Donny – if he thought he’d be winning this given the pot I thought he’d be here, and he’s on a Nicholls horse there. But, you’re right in that it’s best not to over-think jockeys.
          An 11/2 shot can still be value 🙂 (as you well know!)
          Josh

          Josh 11/08/19 11:40 PM Reply


        • What stakes level are you backing horses at Stewart? What are we taking per point? Just to understand what level you are operating at.
          Well done on your recent performance. How long have you been at this game and what is your long term performance like? I did not note your selections before 2019.
          Keep up the good work. I enjoy your write ups. I tend to come to the point with tips but enjoy those who provide more selection analysis.

          martin colwell 11/08/19 11:40 PM Reply


    • Just outstanding again Stewart. Thank you.

      steveindisguise 12/08/19 10:33 AM Reply


    • Well I doff my cap and i’ll eat my humble pie. My day just gets worse, i can’t believe she’s come down there. Painful. Never knowing but that will clearly teach me. Lovely ride o San B. Great day for you again. Well done.

      Josh 12/08/19 10:33 AM Reply


      • The horse actually won the race, so, who knows, maybe with a jockey on its back….? It`s all good fun and i thought i would go close with one race, definitely not two..I may pay for this come Cheltenham time, but, the funds are up and i enjoy Aintree more….especially with ULTRAGOLD on the horizon now…..still can`t believe he is 40/1 and i have filled my boots with another couple of fiver each ways on a couple of high street bookies today, whilst i was out! when he gets beat in the cross country we should be looking at the price drifting out again to 50`s, thank heavens for Gigginstown and their love of the National!

        Stewart 12/08/19 11:28 AM Reply


        • As in, compacting the market and making our horses longer odds!

          Stewart 12/08/19 12:09 PM Reply


        • ha, well I hope you’re not using up all your good fortune! I’d have thought Theatre Guide would have won but for clouting the last but then again maybe not, as he is a monkey now in his old age. But had he pinged it you’d have thought that was race over.
          Happy Diva was just annoying given how she’d jumped, and how she was travelling, in the right spot. I’m as confident as I can be she’d have been leading over 2 out, but yours may have nabbed her anyway. Impossible to know. My EW money would have certainly been safe if she’d have got round!

          Ultra Gold – best of luck, I can’t see him staying, I don’t think he stays 26f, but the evidence, and my record in the race, would suggest my view isn’t worth much! I could see a plodding on placed effort given his liking for the fences but think they’ll be classier/stronger stayers on the day.
          Josh

          Josh 12/08/19 12:09 PM Reply


  • What would be the Tipster comp selections

    Newbury
    1:30 Bally Longford
    2:40 Javert
    3:10 flying tiger

    Chelmsford
    6:00 Solar heights

    Kelso
    2:45 One for arthur

    Warren Bottomley 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


  • ITV 7.

    Bordeaux Bill
    Race 1 – 13:50 Doncaster
    The Last Samuri
    Race 2 – 14:05 Newbury
    Warriors Tale
    Race 3 – 14:40 Newbury
    Two In One
    Race 4 – 14:55 Navan
    Papagana
    Race 5 – 15:00 Doncaster
    Ebony Gale
    Race 6 – 15:10 Newbury
    Chidswell
    Race 7 – 15:35 Doncaster
    7p ew accum for 1/4 million 🙂

    Martin Whittle 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    2.40 Newbury Shanahan’s Turn BOG 33/1
    3.20 Lingfield Chevallier BOG 7/1
    4.40 Doncaster Zig Zag BOG 5/2

    ELITE BETS
    2.40 Newbury Zalvados BOG 25/1
    3.20 Lingfield Sha La La La Lee BOG 7/2
    8.00 Chelmsford Red Cossack BOG 15/2
    Colin

    cleafe 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    N 1.30 – Hit TheHighway on 3rd run @ 11
    N 3.45 – Megalodon on 1st run @ 28
    Festival
    N 2.05 – Milansbar on 2nd run @ 25
    N 3.10 – Champagne City on 1st run @ 9/2
    …………Flying Tiger on 7th run @ 7
    Nav 4.35 – Mr Diablo on 1st run @ 15/8
    AW
    L 3.20 – Sea Fox on 6th run @ 14
    3m+
    N 2.05 – The Last Samurai on 2nd run @ 6
    N 2.40 – Shanahans Turn on 5th run @ 33

    GL

    Titus 12/08/19 9:47 AM Reply


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