Members Daily Post: 01/03/19 (complete/Chelt Report)

Chelt Stats/Trends pack… Section 1 (complete), test zone , updates

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Doncaster

3.15 – Mont Royale   (HcCh, micro class) H3 I3 G1 15/2 S4 S1+S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

3.45 – Sula Island   (all Hc’s, HcCh, m runs) H3 I3 G3 10/3 S4 

 

Newbury

1.45 –

Friday Night Light   (all Hc’s, m runs) H1 I3 11/2 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

From The Heart   (m age) 12/1 S2 

2.50 –

Awake At Midnight   (m’s class and dist) H3 I3 2/1 

Lillington   (all Hc’s) 9/2 

3.55 – Jabulani   (m runs) G3 13/2 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

4.30 – Djin Conti   (nov HcCh) 10/1 S2 

 

THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

 

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -9.9 )Best of Stats (29/153,68p, -1.2) Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 1/12,3p, -4)

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None again Friday, no target races of choice.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide)

3.45 D – Its All A Lark 10/3

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

2.50 N – Zalvados (9/1< best)

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Handicap Chase Starting Points (10/1< best)

3.15 D – Away For Slates  10/11

Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

3.55 N – Affaire Dhonneur 16/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

New post from Adam Norman if you missed it, HERE>>>

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The Cheltenham stats/trends pack:  READ HERE>>>

(i think it’s complete, all 30 pages and 5000+ ‘words’ of it! The 13 target races – haven’t bothered with stats/trends for The Gold Cup – plus 10 micro angles, all saved. I plan to post all ‘qualifiers’ as starting points, and the trends/stats shortlist for each race, and as with previous years that will be the foundation on which I try to build) 

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Sat big race trends/stats... just the 2.40 this Sat, stats wise…

2.40 Newbury Gold Cup Handicap Chase

10/112, 29p

10/10 had 0-1 chase runs at track (2+ : 0/31, 4p) (1: 6/33,11p, +49)

10/10 had 1-4 chase wins (outside this: 0/23,6p)

9/10 aged 6-8 (9+ : 1/52, 11p)

8/10 top 2 at least once on last three runs

8/10 ran 21-45 days ago (2/59, 11p outside this)

Other

  • OR higher than LTO: 0/28, 6p
  • Claiming jockeys: 4/22, 5p
  • Ran in Grade 3/Listed LTO: 5/25, 6p +40
  • WON LTO: 0/19,2p

Track LTO

  • Kempton: 3/12,4p
  • Chelt: 3/19, 4p
  • X1: Sand/Ascot/Warw/Muss

Trainers (15 renewals)

  • P Nicholls: 8/28, 11p
  • X1: R Dickin/ C Mann/P Hobbs/N Henderson/V Williams/D Pipe

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February’s Tipping Competition

Results… for those of you who played, please post your results in the comments 🙂 Results should be based on ROI to 1 point win, BFSP, (exc commission), min 20 bets.  ROI = profit divided by points staked, multiplied by 100, to get the percentage.

The winner (£50 cash) will be the one with the biggest ROI , simple. Remember this comp, until I have software set up, relies on you keeping accurate results and me trusting you not to play silly buggers.

Remember I have a discretionary £20 prize that I will throw around when feeling generous… so, post results even if you don’t think you’ve won, and if you have kept results to ‘advised prices’ also – my discretionary prize will go to those I deem having made a positive contribution to the comments in said month, inc any tipping results, but not restricted to that.

Looking ahead… MARCH… this competition will just focus on Cheltenham, with a Cheltenham only competition… that’s mainly because there’s plenty going on here that week and it’s just easier that way. Obviously you’re free to post as normal in these posts, just any such tips won’t count towards the comp, outside of Chelt week. And there are a handful of you who post regularly anyway, before the comp came into being – carry on! I’ll probably do one Royal Ascot week also, with all the other months as normal. They’ll still be a discretionary prize for March.

Hope that all makes sense!

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

153 Responses

  1. Feb profit/loss
    Colins bets SP -17.5 BOG -14

    Elite bets SP + 7.70 BOG + 18.725
    Jan SP + 14.38 BOG + 26.05
    Elite bets had a good start to 2019 with 2 winning months, combined profit is
    SP + 22.08 BOG + 44.775
    Once again shows why bookmakers restrict customers 100% more profit at BOG compared to SP.
    Colin

    1. yep well done colin .. and thanks for your words of encouragement through the months on here .. appreciated 🙂

      gl/gb 🙂

  2. Think that ROI up yonder is wrong way round Josh,its profit divided by stake x100

    Feb Results

    4/24(17%)
    bfsp profit 22.68
    ROI 95%
    BOG profit 15
    ROI 63%

  3. Well done on a great start to the year with Elite Colin. Where does that put Elite since you started posting them? Only a matter of time before the Colin bets start going in again, class is permanent!

    1. Francis
      Elite backed it again myself in October only recorded SP + 21.75
      Decided to put them up and sods law 2 losing months
      Nov SP – 8.47 BOG – 3.92
      Dec SP – 16.05 BOG -14.5
      Jan SP + 14.38 BOG + 26.05
      Feb SP +7.70 BOG + 18.725
      Total
      SP – 2.44 BOG + 26.35
      will not count Oct in the records for did not put them up on the forum, for myself have another + 21.75 on the figures, not had the 20/1 to 40/1 winners yet could be at Cheltenham lets hope so.
      Colin.

      1. Cheers Colin, I remember it was a slightly rocky start but coming through really nicely now. I hope March is a good month for both methods.

    1. Impressive as ever .. consistent & professional … really appreciate your comments and techniques shared on here 🙂
      gl/gb 🙂

  4. FRANCIS SYSTEM
    RT +53.23
    Not a good day to put the bets up late, albeit still a few hours before race time. I hope everyone that intended to bet did so, as nothing more frustrating…. I’m sorry I couldn’t post earlier but lead a very busy life at the moment.

    2 x 2pt winners recorded at 5/2, 11/2.

    The 2 pointers have historic results of 50% ROI since start of 2015. Those wins put them in that sort of ballpark for the year. 1 pointers are at 84% ROI to date this year —> correction incoming!!

    1pt win – 2.10 D – Tim Rocco
    1pt win – 2.50 N – Zalvados

    HCAP CHASE
    RT+0.94

    Poor John Williams (pretty sure he played for the mighty Sky Blues when I was a nipper) couldn’t deliver, which was ironic as I think his nickname was the “flying postman” from memory. Maybe they should give the poor sod more than a day’s rest next time!

    1. Nice one Martin. Yes bet365 were offering 6s and was that on exchanges most the day I think. In fact, some friendly bot gave me 15/2 at one point, I must remember to thank him if I ever see him again!

  5. squat diddly again for me today (thursday)
    scores on the George doors :
    February tips competition bets only = 66 bets 7 winners = + £ 105.78 bfsp
    ROI % = 159.09

    I now make it anyway …… thanks to you Josh 🙂

    it’s made a boring February bearable …. thanks
    gl/gb

      1. thanks Warren … and you sir very impressive set of figures .. especially the strike rate !
        gl/gb 🙂

    1. Well done George, Brio Conti at 42 was significant in the Feb competition for those that had it.

      1. Cheers Gearoid180468 ……. yeah can’t keep a good man down …lol in the face of adversity n all that 🙂 ….. and you as well i enjoy your comments … makes everything more enjoyable i reckon … well it does for me 🙂
        keep up the good work
        gl/gb

  6. Bets 21, won 2, +4.77, roi 22.7%

    Well done George, hope you keep posting, I will. Had a couple narrowly beaten otherwise my roi would have been a whole lot better. It’s always how unlucky we were in this game isn’t it? The one that got away, oh man, you should have seen it, it was in the lead everywhere but on the line.

    Think I’d have gone for our friend David Probert to break sharply and lead all the way on Highland Acclaim 3.05, but the value’s going fast so will likely pass on that tomorrow.

    Got a couple possible at Newcastle, see how the prices go by mid-morning.

    1. hi chris 🙂
      yep keep calm and keep on sharing .. thanks for your system/s you shared on here i still have one in my hrb systems named after you 😉 ( you shared returning favourites ??)
      gl/gb 🙂

      1. I don’t think I have ever based a system on returning favourites, George, must be some other Chris.

        Mind you, the ol’ memory is failing these days…

          1. No, I always posted as Chris Murrell.

            I got confused with the Chris M a few times.

        1. “CHRIS M 7 DAY RETURNING HCP JUMPERS”
          here is the living proof ..lol 🙂 .. not favourites .. dohhh !!
          gl/gb
          keep up the good work ! 🙂

          1. jeebers i am getting old .. really really sorry to bother u on dat one then chris w. 😉 ..lol 🙁 ( need to up my medication 🙂 )
            gl/gb

  7. My results for February

    17wins/71bets +77.40 BFSP
    109.01% ROI

    I’ll take that more than happy with my results.

  8. Feb profit/loss
    Colins bets SP -17.5 BOG -14

    Elite bets SP + 7.70 BOG + 18.725
    Jan SP + 14.38 BOG + 26.05
    Elite bets had a good start to 2019 with 2 winning months, combined profit is
    SP + 22.08 BOG + 44.775
    Once again shows why bookmakers restrict customers 100% more profit at BOG compared to SP.
    Colin

    1. yep well done colin .. and thanks for your words of encouragement through the months on here .. appreciated 🙂

      gl/gb 🙂

  9. Think that ROI up yonder is wrong way round Josh,its profit divided by stake x100

    Feb Results

    4/24(17%)
    bfsp profit 22.68
    ROI 95%
    BOG profit 15
    ROI 63%

  10. Well done on a great start to the year with Elite Colin. Where does that put Elite since you started posting them? Only a matter of time before the Colin bets start going in again, class is permanent!

    1. Francis
      Elite backed it again myself in October only recorded SP + 21.75
      Decided to put them up and sods law 2 losing months
      Nov SP – 8.47 BOG – 3.92
      Dec SP – 16.05 BOG -14.5
      Jan SP + 14.38 BOG + 26.05
      Feb SP +7.70 BOG + 18.725
      Total
      SP – 2.44 BOG + 26.35
      will not count Oct in the records for did not put them up on the forum, for myself have another + 21.75 on the figures, not had the 20/1 to 40/1 winners yet could be at Cheltenham lets hope so.
      Colin.

      1. Cheers Colin, I remember it was a slightly rocky start but coming through really nicely now. I hope March is a good month for both methods.

    1. Impressive as ever .. consistent & professional … really appreciate your comments and techniques shared on here 🙂
      gl/gb 🙂

  11. FRANCIS SYSTEM
    RT +53.23
    Not a good day to put the bets up late, albeit still a few hours before race time. I hope everyone that intended to bet did so, as nothing more frustrating…. I’m sorry I couldn’t post earlier but lead a very busy life at the moment.

    2 x 2pt winners recorded at 5/2, 11/2.

    The 2 pointers have historic results of 50% ROI since start of 2015. Those wins put them in that sort of ballpark for the year. 1 pointers are at 84% ROI to date this year —> correction incoming!!

    1pt win – 2.10 D – Tim Rocco
    1pt win – 2.50 N – Zalvados

    HCAP CHASE
    RT+0.94

    Poor John Williams (pretty sure he played for the mighty Sky Blues when I was a nipper) couldn’t deliver, which was ironic as I think his nickname was the “flying postman” from memory. Maybe they should give the poor sod more than a day’s rest next time!

  12. today’s selections.
    Newbury.
    1-45. Samson’s Reach 10-1 1/2 pt ew
    3-55. Financial Outcome 8-1 1/2 pt ew, Rightdownthemiddlet 66-1 1/4 pt ew
    4-30. Brynmawr 33-1 1/4 pt ew

    1. a bit of spare time today so i thought i would do i bit of a write up but being a lazy so and so i might of pinched some bits 🙂 but it echoes my opinion so why not.
      1-45. Samson’s Reach 1/2 pt ew, managed to get 16’s with BV paying 4 places, the proven form of Samsons Reach is solid form, a winner at the trip, has run best races right handed but won at Warwick in heavy off this kind of mark and decent on anything from Good to Heavy and I think over-priced on balance of proven form.
      3-55. Financial Outcome 1/2 pt ew, got 12’s this morning , shown promise in 2 novice hurdle’s and makes his handicap debut today up in trip which should suit, dual p2p winner.
      Rightdownthemiddle 1/4 pt ew now 125-1 is a much better hurdler than chaser and won a c5 back in December at Leicester and you only have to go back to July when he won a c4 over an extended 2m7f at Perth.
      4-30. Brynmawr 1/4 pt ew now 50-1 , hasn’t shown much since going chasing but had some decent hurdle form, didn’t last home lto so the drop back in trip might help but admittedly a bit of a punt in the dark.

    1. Nice one Martin. Yes bet365 were offering 6s and was that on exchanges most the day I think. In fact, some friendly bot gave me 15/2 at one point, I must remember to thank him if I ever see him again!

  13. Feb 23/111 +9.96 ROI 8.07% better than the bank……
    I will put up these for a month, since it’s a new system of mine with a promising start, albeit with lots of selections. Will quote B365 prices taken
    145 Nb Crystal Lad 10/3
    345 Do Peters Cousin 5/2
    305 Li Suzis Connoisseur 9/1
    600 Nc Highwayman 7/2
    630 Nc Archimedes 5/1
    800 Nc Star Cracker 9/2
    815 Du Sharjah 11/1

  14. squat diddly again for me today (thursday)
    scores on the George doors :
    February tips competition bets only = 66 bets 7 winners = + £ 105.78 bfsp
    ROI % = 159.09

    I now make it anyway …… thanks to you Josh 🙂

    it’s made a boring February bearable …. thanks
    gl/gb

      1. thanks Warren … and you sir very impressive set of figures .. especially the strike rate !
        gl/gb 🙂

    1. Well done George, Brio Conti at 42 was significant in the Feb competition for those that had it.

      1. Cheers Gearoid180468 ……. yeah can’t keep a good man down …lol in the face of adversity n all that 🙂 ….. and you as well i enjoy your comments … makes everything more enjoyable i reckon … well it does for me 🙂
        keep up the good work
        gl/gb

  15. Bets 21, won 2, +4.77, roi 22.7%

    Well done George, hope you keep posting, I will. Had a couple narrowly beaten otherwise my roi would have been a whole lot better. It’s always how unlucky we were in this game isn’t it? The one that got away, oh man, you should have seen it, it was in the lead everywhere but on the line.

    Think I’d have gone for our friend David Probert to break sharply and lead all the way on Highland Acclaim 3.05, but the value’s going fast so will likely pass on that tomorrow.

    Got a couple possible at Newcastle, see how the prices go by mid-morning.

    1. hi chris 🙂
      yep keep calm and keep on sharing .. thanks for your system/s you shared on here i still have one in my hrb systems named after you 😉 ( you shared returning favourites ??)
      gl/gb 🙂

      1. I don’t think I have ever based a system on returning favourites, George, must be some other Chris.

        Mind you, the ol’ memory is failing these days…

          1. No, I always posted as Chris Murrell.

            I got confused with the Chris M a few times.

        1. “CHRIS M 7 DAY RETURNING HCP JUMPERS”
          here is the living proof ..lol 🙂 .. not favourites .. dohhh !!
          gl/gb
          keep up the good work ! 🙂

          1. jeebers i am getting old .. really really sorry to bother u on dat one then chris w. 😉 ..lol 🙁 ( need to up my medication 🙂 )
            gl/gb

  16. My results for February

    17wins/71bets +77.40 BFSP
    109.01% ROI

    I’ll take that more than happy with my results.

  17. today’s selections.
    Newbury.
    1-45. Samson’s Reach 10-1 1/2 pt ew
    3-55. Financial Outcome 8-1 1/2 pt ew, Rightdownthemiddlet 66-1 1/4 pt ew
    4-30. Brynmawr 33-1 1/4 pt ew

    1. a bit of spare time today so i thought i would do i bit of a write up but being a lazy so and so i might of pinched some bits 🙂 but it echoes my opinion so why not.
      1-45. Samson’s Reach 1/2 pt ew, managed to get 16’s with BV paying 4 places, the proven form of Samsons Reach is solid form, a winner at the trip, has run best races right handed but won at Warwick in heavy off this kind of mark and decent on anything from Good to Heavy and I think over-priced on balance of proven form.
      3-55. Financial Outcome 1/2 pt ew, got 12’s this morning , shown promise in 2 novice hurdle’s and makes his handicap debut today up in trip which should suit, dual p2p winner.
      Rightdownthemiddle 1/4 pt ew now 125-1 is a much better hurdler than chaser and won a c5 back in December at Leicester and you only have to go back to July when he won a c4 over an extended 2m7f at Perth.
      4-30. Brynmawr 1/4 pt ew now 50-1 , hasn’t shown much since going chasing but had some decent hurdle form, didn’t last home lto so the drop back in trip might help but admittedly a bit of a punt in the dark.

  18. Morning,

    Was going to leave it today and I probably will live to regret this as it`s below the threshold i set myself, so, i can here everyone….shut up waffling and get on with it…
    15:55 Newbury
    HIS DREAM 11/1 gen 1 pt win
    Now for all three of these (Horse / Trainer / Jockey), you never know which one will turn up on any given day, if all three of them are in unison then it`s game over for the rest of the field, the 11/1 is far too generous for a horse that responds to the jockey.(Mr McClernon was on him LTO and ran him in my opinion far too headstrong, he needs to be ridden patiently because he idles when in front).
    I believe that this galloping track will play to both jockey and horses strengths and with a feather weight he could make mincemeat of the field.
    AFFAIRE D`HONNEUR 25/1 1pt ew
    Sorry peeps, was going to write this up last night and as some of you are eating your breakfast this has probably gone to around 20/1 /16`s…He was 50/1 last night general, he has changed hands and looks as though this longer trip will suit having changed hands to Tony Carroll (he is a master at taking these forgotten horses and rebuilding them…although he mainly does it over the flat rather than the sticks, so, must think something of this very frustrating horse). He flattered to deceive with Harry Whittington and there was talk of him being entered in a lanzarote back then, but, as i said he flattered to deceive then went off the boil, believe he is thrown in here and even at 16/1 represents the value in the race, if you can get 20`s brilliant…

    As always hope all horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.

    1. Sorry meant to put horses and jockeys come back safe and sound, my brain at the moment… Was reading AP McCoys autobiography the other day and it is a damn good read…He is the only person`s ab i have read that actually deals with death, sorry, don`t want to put anyone off there cereal, in the sense of a jockeys perspective with the horses, friends, stable staff etc.. damn good read and insightful into how some horses passing away really got to him and he nearly stopped riding…Just makes you stop and think about the game a little and how all of it can come crashing down in front of you quite literally, whilst the rest of the field carry on regardless, as a jockey you are then meant to forget about that animal that you have ridden umpteen times and get on the next horse that is running in the 15:15 at wherever, we are after all animals and have a right to grieve, but alas the wheels keep on turning and like i said the next race is almost upon us!!

    2. Thanks Stewart. I am a bit behind with what you are doing, but read Joshs comments last week. Just got 13 and 18.5 on these two on Betfair. Do you and others normally do the Place as well (or an each/way bet etc.)? Thanks John

      1. My staking details are to the right of the horses name, so, HIS DREAM 1pt win and AFFAIRE D`HONNEUR 1pt E/W

    3. A class 4 handicap hurdle, such a lack of discipline Stewart, disappointing! 🙂 haha. I jest. How on earth was Carroll’s 50s?? Great spot, whatever he does, but this is more his trip than LTO albeit still a stamina niggle, but can see why interested at 20s+. He does have some ability and chased home their Vive Le Roi 3 starts back, and may appreciate this cut in the ground. Interesting for sure. That Vive form and fact Harry ridden before all may have influenced the purchase and he’s shrewd, and will get wins out of him, maybe today! He’s very good with his ‘distance move’ runners also, going up/down 20% in trip from LTO, 5/22,11p, +22 SP in last couple of years.
      Jonjo’s is worth another chance, did too much too soon LTO and only faded late on. You’d think he’d be thereabouts. Hopefully one of them continues your fine form, best of luck!
      Does look a deep race for the grade, keeping eyes on all Mulholland runners as he’s just starting to fire, Duke of Kilcorral of minor interest but trip complete unknown, 65 days off etc. But i’m sure he must have had illness issues at various points this season, could be in for a good time of it over coming weeks. We will see.

  19. Feb 23/111 +9.96 ROI 8.07% better than the bank……
    I will put up these for a month, since it’s a new system of mine with a promising start, albeit with lots of selections. Will quote B365 prices taken
    145 Nb Crystal Lad 10/3
    345 Do Peters Cousin 5/2
    305 Li Suzis Connoisseur 9/1
    600 Nc Highwayman 7/2
    630 Nc Archimedes 5/1
    800 Nc Star Cracker 9/2
    815 Du Sharjah 11/1

  20. Well February was a bit of a damp squib for me after January but still ended up with a profit albeit a long way short of some. W2 L12 P/L +13.3 (BFSP) ROI 95.0% One thing that the comp’ has exposed to me is that a fair amount of the content that is regularly put up on here is viable to BFSP despite the results being recorded to earlies and BOG. So I’m planning to follow some myself this month and see how it goes.

    Well done to George a very impressive start to set the standard with and feel an apology from myself is in order as I’ve been watching the exchanges between Martin and yourself more closely and I think I understand where you’re coming from now. I even found that a couple of my own at biggish prices (one won the other came a neck second), coincided with your selections. Not sure that the phenomenon doubles a horse’s chances of winning, but I can see the argument that if 2 individuals working in isolation come to similar conclusions then the potential of the inherent value in the bet being realised becomes stronger.

    Still not completely sure about that, but it’s going to be interesting to see over the next few months just how it pans out.

    1. No worries Tim
      As you have eluded to .. we did not get off to the best of starts in the early days. But I am big and ugly enough not to hold grudges with you or anyone really … especially not on these pages ……. like most on here i am here to learn and hopefully improve and certainly i have learnt a lot from you Tim 🙂
      long may it continue … lets hope we have another “hadron collider” moment again soon .

      gl/gb 🙂

      1. Learn’t a few new trix myself too 😉 George and hoping to expand my portfolio (to use a J Dubya expression), in the coming months. Will be posting them but might have to change the format a little as to how to back them.

  21. These would be my tipping comp horses today.

    Doncaster
    2:40 Dr Richard Kimble

    Newbury
    2:50 Lillington
    5:00 Ruby Ring

    Newcastle
    5:30 allieyf

    Good luck everyone

  22. Hi all, nothing from me today.

    Scores on the doors for Feb;

    14/64 30p +23.45 BOG +13.15 BFSP (ROI 19.95%)

    A poor last week for me, thinking to deep!!
    K.I,S.S. as they say!!

    Solent

  23. Tips for today:

    1.45 Newbury – Ey Up Rocky, ran a stinker LTO and was pulled up. But its previous two races had shown promise and so i will give the horse another chance. 1 point each way at 14/1.
    4.30 Newbury, Royal Magic, learning the chasing game and an OK run LTO. Is unexposed and at 12/1 is worth a go at 1 point each way.

    Good luck.

  24. Although No Tipping Contest
    Will Put up a Few mainly as a Record for Myself to Keep track of

    1:45 Newb Lillilington
    2:50 Newb Friday Night Light

    R

  25. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    D 2.10 – Tim Rocco on 1st run @ 13/2
    AW
    N 6.00 – Highwayman on 8th run @ 7/2
    N 6.30 – Rantan on 3rd run @ 16
    GL

    1. Had a couple of quid on highwayman myself.
      I had to I was listening to a song called highwaymen by the highwaymen will looking at the race with highwayman in it.

  26. Feb Tip Returns
    Short of threshold with 18 tips inc 2 nr’s leaving
    2/16 @ 16 bog(+2) and 26.4 bfsp (+12.4) = 60.6% roi

  27. Feb competition returns:-

    21 Tips , 2 won , 19 Lost -11.68 points @ bfsp (ROI -51%)

    Think I must be the only one losing this month. Well done to all the winners. Will try again at Cheltenham.

    Mark B.

  28. Update at end February for 2019 to date excluding competition tips (which went well enough):

    Actual tips – minus 31.75 points. Not sure what is going wrong here but will work at it and sort it. No year end target except to be in profit as I am more of a bettor on horse racing based on others knowledge than my own.
    Systems selections for horse racing – plus 36.5 points. Going well as the year end target is 125 points profit.
    Golf tips on the free blog – plus 10.5 points profit. Going OK but a bit hit and miss at present. Year end target of 125 points profit.
    I also tip on football via twitter. I do not want to block up space on the free blog with these as there has not been much interest previously. To date they are 36.75 points in profit with a year end target of +150 points.

  29. Hello everyone, despite my dodgy inclinations as reported earlier in the week I am a Trustee of a charity and for the last month we have had no administrator so I have been carrying out the role. My excuse for only posting 7 bets.
    Feb Wins 1/7, pl 2/7 roi 35.7%. Points since inception +4.25 Wins 9/46. Slow work.
    Hugh

  30. Newcastle 6.00 Black Hambleton 15/2

    Comes out on 2 of my systems.

    Newcastle 8.00 Excel Mate 25/1

    This will be a cliff horse for me. Tenderly handled to get his mark, bred to win at Southwell or Newcastle, can’t leave him unbacked.

      1. I was about to type a message of despair there Tim, but just realised the price wasn’t hit, assumed it had as I was watching! Just done for a bit of experience there – he didn’t really know what to do under pressure, and was keen early which may have cost him. Good pick nonetheless.

        1. I agree with your comments Josh. I knew that the Fav’s experience might just be the deciding factor when I posted it. I took the 15.0 just before they started leaving the paddock and by the time they were at the post it had been backed below the 11.0 minimum but not disappointed. Had my money’s worth given the odds I took.

  31. Morning,

    Was going to leave it today and I probably will live to regret this as it`s below the threshold i set myself, so, i can here everyone….shut up waffling and get on with it…
    15:55 Newbury
    HIS DREAM 11/1 gen 1 pt win
    Now for all three of these (Horse / Trainer / Jockey), you never know which one will turn up on any given day, if all three of them are in unison then it`s game over for the rest of the field, the 11/1 is far too generous for a horse that responds to the jockey.(Mr McClernon was on him LTO and ran him in my opinion far too headstrong, he needs to be ridden patiently because he idles when in front).
    I believe that this galloping track will play to both jockey and horses strengths and with a feather weight he could make mincemeat of the field.
    AFFAIRE D`HONNEUR 25/1 1pt ew
    Sorry peeps, was going to write this up last night and as some of you are eating your breakfast this has probably gone to around 20/1 /16`s…He was 50/1 last night general, he has changed hands and looks as though this longer trip will suit having changed hands to Tony Carroll (he is a master at taking these forgotten horses and rebuilding them…although he mainly does it over the flat rather than the sticks, so, must think something of this very frustrating horse). He flattered to deceive with Harry Whittington and there was talk of him being entered in a lanzarote back then, but, as i said he flattered to deceive then went off the boil, believe he is thrown in here and even at 16/1 represents the value in the race, if you can get 20`s brilliant…

    As always hope all horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.

    1. Sorry meant to put horses and jockeys come back safe and sound, my brain at the moment… Was reading AP McCoys autobiography the other day and it is a damn good read…He is the only person`s ab i have read that actually deals with death, sorry, don`t want to put anyone off there cereal, in the sense of a jockeys perspective with the horses, friends, stable staff etc.. damn good read and insightful into how some horses passing away really got to him and he nearly stopped riding…Just makes you stop and think about the game a little and how all of it can come crashing down in front of you quite literally, whilst the rest of the field carry on regardless, as a jockey you are then meant to forget about that animal that you have ridden umpteen times and get on the next horse that is running in the 15:15 at wherever, we are after all animals and have a right to grieve, but alas the wheels keep on turning and like i said the next race is almost upon us!!

    2. Thanks Stewart. I am a bit behind with what you are doing, but read Joshs comments last week. Just got 13 and 18.5 on these two on Betfair. Do you and others normally do the Place as well (or an each/way bet etc.)? Thanks John

      1. My staking details are to the right of the horses name, so, HIS DREAM 1pt win and AFFAIRE D`HONNEUR 1pt E/W

        1. Thanks Stewart, 0/10 for observation by me – sorry! In my defense have had the mother of all virus bugs for almost 2 weeks now (and very slow to clear) and its clearly affected this old brain of mine. All the best John

    3. A class 4 handicap hurdle, such a lack of discipline Stewart, disappointing! 🙂 haha. I jest. How on earth was Carroll’s 50s?? Great spot, whatever he does, but this is more his trip than LTO albeit still a stamina niggle, but can see why interested at 20s+. He does have some ability and chased home their Vive Le Roi 3 starts back, and may appreciate this cut in the ground. Interesting for sure. That Vive form and fact Harry ridden before all may have influenced the purchase and he’s shrewd, and will get wins out of him, maybe today! He’s very good with his ‘distance move’ runners also, going up/down 20% in trip from LTO, 5/22,11p, +22 SP in last couple of years.
      Jonjo’s is worth another chance, did too much too soon LTO and only faded late on. You’d think he’d be thereabouts. Hopefully one of them continues your fine form, best of luck!
      Does look a deep race for the grade, keeping eyes on all Mulholland runners as he’s just starting to fire, Duke of Kilcorral of minor interest but trip complete unknown, 65 days off etc. But i’m sure he must have had illness issues at various points this season, could be in for a good time of it over coming weeks. We will see.

  32. So are congratulations in order George? Well done mi amigo!

    Meandering thoughts from Planet MC for your consideration and comment 🙂

    Nap of the day is in 18.00 Newcastle, Highwayman, trainer/jockey are 60% win 60% place at the track last five years. The fav looks the danger. In the 18.30, Epeius, 19.00 Blindingly, 20.00 Displaying Amber. T/J are 31/63 last five years going up to 38/66 for handicaps.

    Be lucky my friend 🙂

    1. Yep howdy doody young mark .

      Well i know its boring .. but my bottom has not caught up with my elbow yet this morning …. customers eh !!! ??? who needs them ….errr yeah actually i do 🙂
      Not had any real chance to look at my avalanche of qualifiers today yet.. hoping to soon 🙂
      our great system of losers has brought up MR MAC 2.00 LING …. BUT …. on further investigation it is not the correct qualifying distance of race … but it does have my fave jockey of the moment mr tom marquand ( he seriously is brilliantly just watch him he has complete race nous and doesn’t panic .. he is riding on a crest of a wave at the moment .. even no hopers he has got placed for me .. gonna top jockey one day me thinks 🙂 que’ worst ride of the day coming up 🙂 will be following you over the cliff while i catch up with myself .
      who won the feb tipping competition in the end ??????? 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
      avb gb 🙂

    2. Office memo for Mark Curtis :
      NOT TIPS JUST POINTS OF INTEREST 🙂
      NEWCASTLE TONIGHT :
      Today 6.30 JORVIK PRINCE = on my Newcastle system but badly drawn ?
      Today 7.00 SEVERNAYA = stating the obvious but has a good pedigree for aw
      Today 7.00 HIKAYAH = good pedigree good enough draw (good place bet for me)
      Today 8.00 NOVABRIDGE = on my Newcastle system but badly drawn ?
      Today 8.00 WINDFORPOWER = on my Newcastle system but badly drawn ?
      gl/gb 🙂

  33. Well February was a bit of a damp squib for me after January but still ended up with a profit albeit a long way short of some. W2 L12 P/L +13.3 (BFSP) ROI 95.0% One thing that the comp’ has exposed to me is that a fair amount of the content that is regularly put up on here is viable to BFSP despite the results being recorded to earlies and BOG. So I’m planning to follow some myself this month and see how it goes.

    Well done to George a very impressive start to set the standard with and feel an apology from myself is in order as I’ve been watching the exchanges between Martin and yourself more closely and I think I understand where you’re coming from now. I even found that a couple of my own at biggish prices (one won the other came a neck second), coincided with your selections. Not sure that the phenomenon doubles a horse’s chances of winning, but I can see the argument that if 2 individuals working in isolation come to similar conclusions then the potential of the inherent value in the bet being realised becomes stronger.

    Still not completely sure about that, but it’s going to be interesting to see over the next few months just how it pans out.

    1. No worries Tim
      As you have eluded to .. we did not get off to the best of starts in the early days. But I am big and ugly enough not to hold grudges with you or anyone really … especially not on these pages ……. like most on here i am here to learn and hopefully improve and certainly i have learnt a lot from you Tim 🙂
      long may it continue … lets hope we have another “hadron collider” moment again soon .

      gl/gb 🙂

      1. Learn’t a few new trix myself too 😉 George and hoping to expand my portfolio (to use a J Dubya expression), in the coming months. Will be posting them but might have to change the format a little as to how to back them.

  34. These would be my tipping comp horses today.

    Doncaster
    2:40 Dr Richard Kimble

    Newbury
    2:50 Lillington
    5:00 Ruby Ring

    Newcastle
    5:30 allieyf

    Good luck everyone

  35. Hi all, nothing from me today.

    Scores on the doors for Feb;

    14/64 30p +23.45 BOG +13.15 BFSP (ROI 19.95%)

    A poor last week for me, thinking to deep!!
    K.I,S.S. as they say!!

    Solent

  36. Tips for today:

    1.45 Newbury – Ey Up Rocky, ran a stinker LTO and was pulled up. But its previous two races had shown promise and so i will give the horse another chance. 1 point each way at 14/1.
    4.30 Newbury, Royal Magic, learning the chasing game and an OK run LTO. Is unexposed and at 12/1 is worth a go at 1 point each way.

    Good luck.

  37. Although No Tipping Contest
    Will Put up a Few mainly as a Record for Myself to Keep track of

    1:45 Newb Lillilington
    2:50 Newb Friday Night Light

    R

  38. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    D 2.10 – Tim Rocco on 1st run @ 13/2
    AW
    N 6.00 – Highwayman on 8th run @ 7/2
    N 6.30 – Rantan on 3rd run @ 16
    GL

    1. Had a couple of quid on highwayman myself.
      I had to I was listening to a song called highwaymen by the highwaymen will looking at the race with highwayman in it.

  39. Feb Tip Returns
    Short of threshold with 18 tips inc 2 nr’s leaving
    2/16 @ 16 bog(+2) and 26.4 bfsp (+12.4) = 60.6% roi

  40. Feb competition returns:-

    21 Tips , 2 won , 19 Lost -11.68 points @ bfsp (ROI -51%)

    Think I must be the only one losing this month. Well done to all the winners. Will try again at Cheltenham.

    Mark B.

  41. Update at end February for 2019 to date excluding competition tips (which went well enough):

    Actual tips – minus 31.75 points. Not sure what is going wrong here but will work at it and sort it. No year end target except to be in profit as I am more of a bettor on horse racing based on others knowledge than my own.
    Systems selections for horse racing – plus 36.5 points. Going well as the year end target is 125 points profit.
    Golf tips on the free blog – plus 10.5 points profit. Going OK but a bit hit and miss at present. Year end target of 125 points profit.
    I also tip on football via twitter. I do not want to block up space on the free blog with these as there has not been much interest previously. To date they are 36.75 points in profit with a year end target of +150 points.

  42. Well done George and everybody else. A Mixture of holidays and house renovations means I’ve not been around much in the last month. The fact that so many people managed to finish with decent profits in what is a notoriously difficult month speaks volumes for the quality of contributors on here.

    A fantastic all round effort and I for one appreciate all your efforts.

    1. thanks bottlabroon 🙂 …… i will be having just that tonight with our currie and our artificial friends who come around thinking we like them ..lol 🙂
      gl/gb

  43. Hello everyone, despite my dodgy inclinations as reported earlier in the week I am a Trustee of a charity and for the last month we have had no administrator so I have been carrying out the role. My excuse for only posting 7 bets.
    Feb Wins 1/7, pl 2/7 roi 35.7%. Points since inception +4.25 Wins 9/46. Slow work.
    Hugh

  44. Newcastle 6.00 Black Hambleton 15/2

    Comes out on 2 of my systems.

    Newcastle 8.00 Excel Mate 25/1

    This will be a cliff horse for me. Tenderly handled to get his mark, bred to win at Southwell or Newcastle, can’t leave him unbacked.

      1. I was about to type a message of despair there Tim, but just realised the price wasn’t hit, assumed it had as I was watching! Just done for a bit of experience there – he didn’t really know what to do under pressure, and was keen early which may have cost him. Good pick nonetheless.

        1. I agree with your comments Josh. I knew that the Fav’s experience might just be the deciding factor when I posted it. I took the 15.0 just before they started leaving the paddock and by the time they were at the post it had been backed below the 11.0 minimum but not disappointed. Had my money’s worth given the odds I took.

          1. yep, i’d have been cursing having not done the same had he got up haha. Two smart ones there, given he was receiving 10lb also, makes winner decent and big gap to rest. Point winner so assuming chasing will be his game and he does look a big unfurnished sort, interesting one to watch in years ahead.

          2. Is quite likely they will fast track him into a beginners chase where he would have to be of interest, but is unlikely we’ll be getting 15.0 for him if they do. 🙁

          3. Tim,
            To be perfectly honest I’m too long in the tooth for some of the supposedly new thinking put up by punters, which nearly always is just a way of cutting the corners off some hard graft. I was intrigued by your posts which seems have an original approach but laziness has left me not knowing what your strategy is, maybe you can give me a date where you explained things. I’m somewhat in the dark as to your selection on Hugh Taylors tip yesterday which you pointed out halved in price. You posted that you needed 10 to get involved and while it went to 11.5 you never mentioned whether this would have been a bet or not. I’m not trying to catch you out or anything but why would any price move during the day effect your original bet seeing as it would appear your bets are predicated on a Betfair drift. Just trying to understand Hombre (smiley)

  45. So are congratulations in order George? Well done mi amigo!

    Meandering thoughts from Planet MC for your consideration and comment 🙂

    Nap of the day is in 18.00 Newcastle, Highwayman, trainer/jockey are 60% win 60% place at the track last five years. The fav looks the danger. In the 18.30, Epeius, 19.00 Blindingly, 20.00 Displaying Amber. T/J are 31/63 last five years going up to 38/66 for handicaps.

    Be lucky my friend 🙂

    1. Yep howdy doody young mark .

      Well i know its boring .. but my bottom has not caught up with my elbow yet this morning …. customers eh !!! ??? who needs them ….errr yeah actually i do 🙂
      Not had any real chance to look at my avalanche of qualifiers today yet.. hoping to soon 🙂
      our great system of losers has brought up MR MAC 2.00 LING …. BUT …. on further investigation it is not the correct qualifying distance of race … but it does have my fave jockey of the moment mr tom marquand ( he seriously is brilliantly just watch him he has complete race nous and doesn’t panic .. he is riding on a crest of a wave at the moment .. even no hopers he has got placed for me .. gonna top jockey one day me thinks 🙂 que’ worst ride of the day coming up 🙂 will be following you over the cliff while i catch up with myself .
      who won the feb tipping competition in the end ??????? 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
      avb gb 🙂

    2. Office memo for Mark Curtis :
      NOT TIPS JUST POINTS OF INTEREST 🙂
      NEWCASTLE TONIGHT :
      Today 6.30 JORVIK PRINCE = on my Newcastle system but badly drawn ?
      Today 7.00 SEVERNAYA = stating the obvious but has a good pedigree for aw
      Today 7.00 HIKAYAH = good pedigree good enough draw (good place bet for me)
      Today 8.00 NOVABRIDGE = on my Newcastle system but badly drawn ?
      Today 8.00 WINDFORPOWER = on my Newcastle system but badly drawn ?
      gl/gb 🙂

  46. Well done George and everybody else. A Mixture of holidays and house renovations means I’ve not been around much in the last month. The fact that so many people managed to finish with decent profits in what is a notoriously difficult month speaks volumes for the quality of contributors on here.

    A fantastic all round effort and I for one appreciate all your efforts.

    1. thanks bottlabroon 🙂 …… i will be having just that tonight with our currie and our artificial friends who come around thinking we like them ..lol 🙂
      gl/gb

  47. Callum R double paid out nice at Newcastle this evening. Kudos for whoever put him up as that must be up a few points now

  48. Callum R double paid out nice at Newcastle this evening. Kudos for whoever put him up as that must be up a few points now

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