Members Daily Post: 27/02/19 (complete)

Section 1 (complete) test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Musselburgh

2.10 – John Williams   (micro TJC) 14 w2 H1 I3 G1 8/11 S4 WON 4/6

3.15 –

Pinspot   (HcH, m class)  ES+ I3 9/2 S3A UP

Sergio   (m’s class and age) H3 4/1 3rd

4.20 –

Kelpies Myth   (HcH, m class)  ES+ H3 I3 6/1 S3A#  2nd 

Royal Reserve   (HcH, m class)  ES+ H1 11/4 S3A 3rd

 

Wincanton

1.50 – The Brothers   (m -class) H3 I3 13/2 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

2.20 –

Statistical   (HcH) 14 H1 4/1 

Daylami Kirk   (m Hcdeb) 14,30  3/1 

2.50 – Silverhow   (HcCh)  ES+ H3 G3 11/2 S3A# UP

3.55 – Duc Kauto   (m -class)  w2 7/1  UP

4.30 –

Sizing Brisbane   (HcCh)  ES+ G3  10/1 S1 S2 S3A UP

Tikkapick   (HcCh)  w1  ES+ H1 I3 11/8 S3A# UP

 

THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

 

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -9.9 )Best of Stats (29/153,68p, -1.2) Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 1/12,3p, -4)

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No tips on Wednesday. Reminder i’m generally sticking to C3+ handicap chases over 3m+, + the big race stuff mainly at weekends/Festivals. The next opportunity could be a decent handicap from Ludlow on Thursday. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow

3.15 M – Triangle Rock (11/1< guide) 5/2

2.20 W – Statistical (14/1<, 6/1< best) 4/1

Jockeys/Chasers

2.50 W – Henryville (9/1< best) 18/1

LTO winning hurdlers 

1.50 W – Ostuni Evens

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

4.30 W – Tikkapick

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

39 Responses

  1. FRANCIS SYSTEM
    RT +37.23
    A blank day Tuesday – I guess I was due one. Theatre act drifted badly and ran accordingly. It’s frustrating because I am including horses in results that are drifting above the maximum odds cap (16) and hence not backing myself but I guess that is the nature of the beast if I am to continue to post them on here. Personally I have a bot that checks the price close to the off in the borderline cases but I can’t expect everyone to have that level of commitment! LOL.

    No bets Wednesday.

    HCAP CHASE
    RT+1.94
    No bets Wednesday

  2. System selections for Wednesday:

    Karl Burke at Southwell.

    4.10 Angel Palanas, 1 point each way. Some 14/1 available now, but generally 11/1.
    5.10 Sylviacliffs, 1 point each way. 10/1 now.

    Emma Lavelle handicappers 5/1 or more,

    2.20 Win, Statistical, 2 points win. 9/2 now and so needs to drift to be a bet.

    Good luck.

  3. FRANCIS SYSTEM
    RT +37.23
    A blank day Tuesday – I guess I was due one. Theatre act drifted badly and ran accordingly. It’s frustrating because I am including horses in results that are drifting above the maximum odds cap (16) and hence not backing myself but I guess that is the nature of the beast if I am to continue to post them on here. Personally I have a bot that checks the price close to the off in the borderline cases but I can’t expect everyone to have that level of commitment! LOL.

    No bets Wednesday.

    HCAP CHASE
    RT+1.94
    No bets Wednesday

    1. I’m beginning to think that this has been the poorest jumps season for me I can remember. It’s as though it never really got going. I’m sure there must be novices still waiting patiently in their stables for some soft ground to appear cos what we have seen so far this year generally speaking has been very poor. Cheltenham aside, we might as well be flat racing. At least the ground conditions are ideal for it.

      I’m through with jumps for now and never been so looking forward to the start of the next flat season.

      Rant over 😉 …. I’ll be posting again at 1.30 and 4.00 but TBH is very unlikely I’ll have many bets if any.

  4. System selections for Wednesday:

    Karl Burke at Southwell.

    4.10 Angel Palanas, 1 point each way. Some 14/1 available now, but generally 11/1.
    5.10 Sylviacliffs, 1 point each way. 10/1 now.

    Emma Lavelle handicappers 5/1 or more,

    2.20 Win, Statistical, 2 points win. 9/2 now and so needs to drift to be a bet.

    Good luck.

  5. 3.05 Southwell, Seasearch, 2 points at 4/1. A Andrew Balding four year old coming back in distance. A winner previously at the course. Seems to me value against Gay Kelleway’s top weight.
    4.10 Southwell, Custard The Dragon, 1 point each way at 10/1. a proper course specialist with six wins at Southwell.

    Good luck.

  6. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    M 4.50 – Avondhu Pearl on 5th run @ 8
    W 1.20 – Sir Pass I Am on 3rd run @ 33/25
    AW
    K 6.00 – Daring Guest on 6th run @ 3
    K 8.00 – Maazel on 5th run @ 14
    GL

  7. COLINS BETS
    3.05 Southwell Harbour Quay BOG 3/1 well yesterdays bet total disappointing after being backed from 13/8 to evens.

    ELITE BETS
    Southwell
    3.35 Point Zero BOG 3/1
    5.10 Rusper Dreams BOG 13/2
    Musselburgh
    4.20 Great Colaci BOG 13/2
    Colin

  8. I’m beginning to think that this has been the poorest jumps season for me I can remember. It’s as though it never really got going. I’m sure there must be novices still waiting patiently in their stables for some soft ground to appear cos what we have seen so far this year generally speaking has been very poor. Cheltenham aside, we might as well be flat racing. At least the ground conditions are ideal for it.

    I’m through with jumps for now and never been so looking forward to the start of the next flat season.

    Rant over 😉 …. I’ll be posting again at 1.30 and 4.00 but TBH is very unlikely I’ll have many bets if any.

    1. You need patience in this game. I bought into an unexposed soft ground favouring 9yo chaser with Anthony Honeyball last September ex Rebecca Curtis. Planned for a Winter campaign. Stable closed for 8 weeks with a bug in the Autumn, since when it has been too dry. Horse is now 10 of course and looks like it may be a blank season unless we get some serious rain soon. He could be nearly 11 before we get a run!
      Hugh

  9. Jamie Osborne Lambourn Trainers
    Have a listen to both his videos especially the 8.00 Kempton very interesting comment about Nicky Henderson and Kempton, certainly enjoy listening to Jamie for he calls a spade a spade and he his so open and honest with his opinions, certainly no bull—- from him.
    Colin.

  10. Mothership calling the Georgemeister….what is John Jenkins doing with Carvelas (19.30 Kempton)? When teaming up with Probert he has astronomical win/place figures at Kempton, yet Carvelas has seemingly had no chance the last few runs and seemingly little better tonight. Why does JJ’s top go to jock for the track keep getting the leg up? Because they are 62% win 87% place in Kempton handicaps over the last year and whichever way you cut it those are outstanding stats. Answers on a post card please…I can’t resist some EW change even though my head tells me no chance….

    Other change flingers today, nothing serious: Beresford 16.40 Southwell, Gurkha Friend 16.10 Southwell with saver on Custard the Dragon.

    Let me know if anything for Kempton tonite, out most of afternoon 🙂

  11. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    M 4.50 – Avondhu Pearl on 5th run @ 8
    W 1.20 – Sir Pass I Am on 3rd run @ 33/25
    AW
    K 6.00 – Daring Guest on 6th run @ 3
    K 8.00 – Maazel on 5th run @ 14
    GL

  12. COLINS BETS
    3.05 Southwell Harbour Quay BOG 3/1 well yesterdays bet total disappointing after being backed from 13/8 to evens.

    ELITE BETS
    Southwell
    3.35 Point Zero BOG 3/1
    5.10 Rusper Dreams BOG 13/2
    Musselburgh
    4.20 Great Colaci BOG 13/2
    Colin

  13. I’m beginning to think that this has been the poorest jumps season for me I can remember. It’s as though it never really got going. I’m sure there must be novices still waiting patiently in their stables for some soft ground to appear cos what we have seen so far this year generally speaking has been very poor. Cheltenham aside, we might as well be flat racing. At least the ground conditions are ideal for it.

    I’m through with jumps for now and never been so looking forward to the start of the next flat season.

    Rant over 😉 …. I’ll be posting again at 1.30 and 4.00 but TBH is very unlikely I’ll have many bets if any.

    1. Tim
      put up a few days ago my conversation with Dai Williams and he complained about the lack of rain this winter and that many trainers using Lambourn gallops are waiting for gd/sft and soft ground before they can run some of their horses.
      for me this mild dry winter as totally cocked up the AW thankfully they say it was 40 years ago when the winter was similar to this one.
      a few ante post men and women must be sweating even with non runner no bet horses, some will run even if conditions are against them for some owners it maybe the only time that they will have a horse good enough for Cheltenham.
      Colin.

      1. Do not worry about Cheltenham as they always water and come up with good to soft to start the day. It may dry out during the day though. Perhaps they could water between the races as they do at football at half time (tongue in cheek) or do a Sheikh Mohammed and have artificial clouds above the course delivering just the right amount of water (the clouds would also partially block out the sun to avoid having to doll off fences when it goes low in the sky). Genius or what?

        1. Apparently they’re expecting plenty of rain next week, so hopefully they don’t need to water , but yep you’re spot on, it is usually ‘no excuses’ ground on the 1st day, but be surprised if it’s soft+ .

          1. I heard someone say at lunch time only 25 mil expected, which is one inch of rain. But we shall see. Someone who i know who walks their dog there says that he has seen them watering this week.

          2. It’s not Cheltenham that worries me Martin. I rarely have more than one or two bets at the festival and TBH they are usually valueish punts rather than calculated wagers. You can’t make enough to live on for a whole year from just the one meeting. (Unless your initials begin with a J and end with a W). 😉

            It’s just frustration on my part that’s getting the better of me at the mo’ but Cheltenham, although very entertaining to watch, is unlikely to make much if any difference as far as my action is concerned.

          3. The festival is a potential gold mine to me as there is so much value and lots of offers if you can get on, It is very competitive but you can narrow the fields down and Josh and others have been successful in doing so. I understand that it does not suit the systems/micros that operate the rest of the time. I tend to switch mine off for Cheltenham.

        2. Cheltenham is a very quick draining course and dries out quickly, Newmarket is the same, so will have to wait and see on the day.
          No doubt Cheltenham will have its own water supply,how much do not know, for up here the dams are very low and would not be surprised if the water companies will be putting restrictions on sport using water.
          Dam Busters dam was on the BBC and ITV news a couple of months ago for it was so low the village which was flooded for the dam was exposed down to the roads,and the last time this happened was over 40 years ago, and it is even lower so must be restrictions on sport soon.
          Could have a sweep date of the first hosepipe ban in 2019!!!
          Colin.

    2. You need patience in this game. I bought into an unexposed soft ground favouring 9yo chaser with Anthony Honeyball last September ex Rebecca Curtis. Planned for a Winter campaign. Stable closed for 8 weeks with a bug in the Autumn, since when it has been too dry. Horse is now 10 of course and looks like it may be a blank season unless we get some serious rain soon. He could be nearly 11 before we get a run!
      Hugh

  14. Jamie Osborne Lambourn Trainers
    Have a listen to both his videos especially the 8.00 Kempton very interesting comment about Nicky Henderson and Kempton, certainly enjoy listening to Jamie for he calls a spade a spade and he his so open and honest with his opinions, certainly no bull—- from him.
    Colin.

  15. Mothership calling the Georgemeister….what is John Jenkins doing with Carvelas (19.30 Kempton)? When teaming up with Probert he has astronomical win/place figures at Kempton, yet Carvelas has seemingly had no chance the last few runs and seemingly little better tonight. Why does JJ’s top go to jock for the track keep getting the leg up? Because they are 62% win 87% place in Kempton handicaps over the last year and whichever way you cut it those are outstanding stats. Answers on a post card please…I can’t resist some EW change even though my head tells me no chance….

    Other change flingers today, nothing serious: Beresford 16.40 Southwell, Gurkha Friend 16.10 Southwell with saver on Custard the Dragon.

    Let me know if anything for Kempton tonite, out most of afternoon 🙂

    1. Hello fellow space oddity M.C. 🙂
      well joining you on our full on blast to betting bank oblivion jj/dp inteersting stats let’s they are added to today then ?
      Nothing too exciting either from me 🙁 ( be glad when feb finishes really 🙂 )
      but as you say i can always must some interest from somewhere
      3.05 Southwell 5 Harbour Quay
      = not much value though ??
      4.10 Southwell 8 Mister Music
      4.10 Southwell 4 Custard The Dragon
      4.10 Southwell 9 Angel Palanas
      = i am hoping the winner comes from one of these 3 ????
      4.40 Southwell 3 Little Rock (IRE)
      hopefully in a photo finish with yours ?? 🙂
      5.10 Southwell 5 Sylviacliffs (FR)
      well drawn as long as the apprentice knows what he is doing 🙂 ?
      8.00 Kempton 3 Hungarian Rhapsody
      = as long as it doesn’t “bounce” tonight
      8.30 Kempton 9 Demons And Wizards (IRE)
      my way “out there” speculative e/w’er to go with your one .
      gl/gb 🙂

      1. George
        Looked at Angal Palanas in the 4.10 won a class 4 now up to class 2 only ran in a class 3 once finishing 7th out of 8 is there going to be a vast improvement in this 5yo who knows only Karl Burke or is it the time to get a few runs no chance of winning to bring the H’C down for a later bet at Southwell, fancy the later no doubt wins by 5 lengths!!!
        Colin

        1. hi colin ,
          they were only interest remarks 🙂 (not worthy) at southwell i was thinking you need to love the surface as much as having a bit of class really .
          still profitable day .. little rocks and thankfully my wife’s name being kathy 🙂
          gl/gb 🙂

  16. 3.05 Southwell, Seasearch, 2 points at 4/1. A Andrew Balding four year old coming back in distance. A winner previously at the course. Seems to me value against Gay Kelleway’s top weight.
    4.10 Southwell, Custard The Dragon, 1 point each way at 10/1. a proper course specialist with six wins at Southwell.

    Good luck.

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