Members Daily Post: 25/02/19 (complete)

Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Ayr

2.20 –

Castaliera   (HcH)8/1 UP

Felix Mendelsshon   (HcH) H1 I3 G1 7/1 S4 UP

Side Of The Road   (HcH) 14/1 S2 UP

2.50 – Sammy B   (micro TJC)  20/1 S2A 3rd 

3.55 – Lost Frequency   (m dist) I3 14/1 S2 S5  UP

4.25 –

Plus Jamais   (HcH) 16/1 S2A  UP

Eagle Ridge  (m Hcdebut) G3 28/1 S1 UP

 

Plumpton

2.00 –

Ding Ding   (m class) H3 I1 G1 4/1 S4  WON 4/1 

Mrs Miggins   (m age) G3 15/2 UP

Illtellmema   (HcH) 14  ES+ G3 16/1 S1 S2A S3A UP

Maisy Belle   (all Hc’s)100/1 UP

Polar Light   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 15/2 S3A 2nd 25/1 

Morning Sequel   (m class) 40/1 UP

3.30 –

Distingo   (HcH) 15/2 UP

Royal Hall   (HcH)  w2 G3 5/1 S1 UP

Desiremoi D’Authie   (HcH, m’s dist,TJC,age)  ES+ H3 I3 G1 4/1 S3A# S4 UP

4.40 –

Ruby Yeats   (HcH, m -class) H1 I3 G3 4/1 S4 2nd 

Ormskirk   (m class) G1 16/1 S1 S2A UP

Big Picture   (m class)  w1 H3 I1 3/1 UP

Windy Bottom   (all Hc’s) 28/1 UP

Jimmy   (HcH, m’s TJC and age)  ES+ 8/1 S3A WON 8/1>5/1 

Sizing Sahara   (all Hc’s)  ES+ I3 G3  14/1 S1 S3A# UP

 

Uttoxeter

2.10 –

Mercers Troop   (HcH, m’s TJC and dist)  ES+ I3 7/1 S3A  WON 7/1>4/1 

Timely Gift   (m dist)  w2 12/1 UP

Canadian George   (m runs) 20/1 S2A UP

2.40 –

Abbeygrey   (m runs) G3 18/1 S1 S2A UP

Up The Drive   (m TJC)  ES+ 15/2 S3A UP

3.45 –

Theatre Bar   (HcH, m TJC)  ES+ I3  10/1 S2 S3A S5 UP

Brydon Boy   (m runs) G3 I3 10/1 S1 S2 S5 UP

4.15 – Crucial Role   (nov HcCh)  ES+ H1 I3 G3  6/4 S3A# S4 WON 6/4 > 10/11 

 

THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -9.9 )Best of Stats (29/153,68p, -1.2) Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 1/12,3p, -4)

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No tips on Monday.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.55 A – Casual Cavalier 7/2

A Honeyball/Mares

5.10 P – Marilyn Monroe (10/1< guide) 6/4

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow

5.00 A – Highway Companion 5/2

3.45 U – Boreham Bill 4/1

LTO winning hurdlers

4.25 A – Knocknamona 5/1

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1<)

2.40 Uttox- Coopers Square 11/4

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book

2.10 U – Canadian George (medium term/guide) 20/1

4.25 A – Knocknamona (medium term/guide/won LTO) 5/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

A quick word of praise for Stewart, who’s been doing rather well with his NH tips this season, with his focus on the better races… Walt was the pick of someone who’s value/race reading eyes are working very well! if you missed his results update in the comments on Sunday’s post…

February totals:  36 bets 6 wins and 2 places.
+30.1 pts profit at BFSP
+9.25 pts profit at SP
+46 pts profit at Early prices

Meaning, so far this NH season.

152 bets 26 wins 2 places
+14 pts profit at SP
+101.5 pts profit at Early (Advertised) Prices.
(BFSP haven`t recorded from start of season)

They’re very good results, esp in those race types. So well done. The write ups are always informative, and as always I share such info for you to use as you please. 🙂 A win SR of 17% is to be admired given the competitive nature of the races targeted. With a SR around 17% there will be losing runs every now and then of 35-40 or so, in an extreme, with plenty of shorter runs. That’s just the maths and the nature of the beast.

*

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

69 Responses

  1. Thank you Josh, wasn’t expecting that, although you, Nick and a few of the others should take credit also.
    You all had an input when i couldn’t pick sand in a sandstorm, so, for that I am grateful!
    Hope you realize now after that I won`t be able to pick my nose with a boxing glove, but, thanks all the same!!
    I love this site and the people on it, they are real mix of all sorts and i think that helps, rather than having one know it all telling everyone what they should back, (That was not having a go at anyone, there is no pushing and shoving just informed selections and reasoning 9 times out of 10 from everyone on here!!). I put my selections and reasoning up and then everyone can decide whether they agree / disagree, the losing runs for some, will be hard to take and January was a bit scarce, but, February has come good and overall the profit is there for all to see.
    I had £40 – £720 at my local William hill on Friday evening at 18/1 on Walt and they were happy to take the bet, so, it can be done! As my account with Hills only let me have the proverbial £2 ew bet on…which i did also.. haha.

  2. Well done Stewart,I have never heard anyone being denied a bet in a shop,maybe if you went in with a grand they might have to get it authorised but you can get small stakes on without an eye lifted,the only problem for the shop bookies is getting footfall,your win was probably dwarfed by the saturday overall takings,some of the staff will be part time or moving from shop to shop,even if they get to know you as a winner would bother them that much,they would usually be glad to see someone winning,they are human.

    1. You are well wrong there mate .The high st can be a nightmare as well .If I do even a ten pound bet in Corals it gets called in .Im a red don’t know why I’ve never won a penny from them .Im SP only in my closest paddys .Eh I’ve never been offered a coffee in any of the shops either .Lads accused me of being a member of the White gang from Edinburgh whoever the are woman are the worst I must admit they think it’s their money .

      1. It is all good in Maidstone town centre. Seven different shops and they have even forgot me in some I have won £5K plus in in the past 18 months. They seem to have a turnover of staff and the East Europeans, whilst likely quite clever, do not seem motivated by the minimum wage.When I won the £8K on the Nick M bets a year ago they gave me a bottle of cheapish champagne as well (Corals). You have to split the bigger bets across two or three shops. I only do multiples in the shops an do singles on the exchanges. The number of shops may start to drop with FOBT restrictions. I appreciate that it is harder if there is only one or two shops in your radius. I am likely just getting away with it.

  3. Systems selection for Monday – Emma Lavelle Handicappers at 5/1+.

    3.45 Utt, Boreham Bill, 1 point win at 11/2 now.

  4. A Trainer that’s had a quiet season so far,Kerry Lee is starting to click again,probably most are waiting for a wet spell.Might be worth keeping an eye on her entries,has one tomorrow 2.40 Uttoxeter,Murphys Nails.Just a watching brief unless there is major market move from the 25/1 on offer.

  5. Thank you Josh, wasn’t expecting that, although you, Nick and a few of the others should take credit also.
    You all had an input when i couldn’t pick sand in a sandstorm, so, for that I am grateful!
    Hope you realize now after that I won`t be able to pick my nose with a boxing glove, but, thanks all the same!!
    I love this site and the people on it, they are real mix of all sorts and i think that helps, rather than having one know it all telling everyone what they should back, (That was not having a go at anyone, there is no pushing and shoving just informed selections and reasoning 9 times out of 10 from everyone on here!!). I put my selections and reasoning up and then everyone can decide whether they agree / disagree, the losing runs for some, will be hard to take and January was a bit scarce, but, February has come good and overall the profit is there for all to see.
    I had £40 – £720 at my local William hill on Friday evening at 18/1 on Walt and they were happy to take the bet, so, it can be done! As my account with Hills only let me have the proverbial £2 ew bet on…which i did also.. haha.

    1. Well done with your results Stewart
      Sometimes when someone is doing exceptionally well their results go under the radar because of the number of threads; posts etc so good for Josh to highlight your achievements and success
      Glad your results have now been emphasised to the many & hopefully profits will continue to blossom
      Regards

  6. Well done Stewart,I have never heard anyone being denied a bet in a shop,maybe if you went in with a grand they might have to get it authorised but you can get small stakes on without an eye lifted,the only problem for the shop bookies is getting footfall,your win was probably dwarfed by the saturday overall takings,some of the staff will be part time or moving from shop to shop,even if they get to know you as a winner would bother them that much,they would usually be glad to see someone winning,they are human.

    1. You are well wrong there mate .The high st can be a nightmare as well .If I do even a ten pound bet in Corals it gets called in .Im a red don’t know why I’ve never won a penny from them .Im SP only in my closest paddys .Eh I’ve never been offered a coffee in any of the shops either .Lads accused me of being a member of the White gang from Edinburgh whoever the are woman are the worst I must admit they think it’s their money .

      1. It is all good in Maidstone town centre. Seven different shops and they have even forgot me in some I have won £5K plus in in the past 18 months. They seem to have a turnover of staff and the East Europeans, whilst likely quite clever, do not seem motivated by the minimum wage.When I won the £8K on the Nick M bets a year ago they gave me a bottle of cheapish champagne as well (Corals). You have to split the bigger bets across two or three shops. I only do multiples in the shops an do singles on the exchanges. The number of shops may start to drop with FOBT restrictions. I appreciate that it is harder if there is only one or two shops in your radius. I am likely just getting away with it.

  7. Systems selection for Monday – Emma Lavelle Handicappers at 5/1+.

    3.45 Utt, Boreham Bill, 1 point win at 11/2 now.

  8. 2.50 Ayr, Ebony Rose, 1 point each way at 20/1 in places now, 16/1 generally. Has won on the going, in the class and at the distance. And so at the price looks value.

  9. A Trainer that’s had a quiet season so far,Kerry Lee is starting to click again,probably most are waiting for a wet spell.Might be worth keeping an eye on her entries,has one tomorrow 2.40 Uttoxeter,Murphys Nails.Just a watching brief unless there is major market move from the 25/1 on offer.

    1. Her four runners in 2019 have been placed 6,2,1,2 and gone off at 33/1, 20/1, 9/2, 8/1. So you do not necessarily need a market move.

  10. Calling George B, back in the land of the (semi) living, how are you sir? Trainer thinks Apex Predator, 7.25 Wolverhampton has a squeak, tho would save on fav. Also like Sir Thomas G in the 6.55.

    If you fancy a cheeky multiple, I’m doing Kingi Compton (5.25), Warriors Valley (5.55), Nice to See (7.25). But bear in mind I might still be feverish 🙂

  11. Only one rule of a system – BACK ALL RUNNERS (see yesterday’s post!). Winner held on really gamely tbf.

    FRANCIS SYSTEM

    1pt win 4.05 P – Plantagenet
    1pt win 2.10 U – Catchin Time

    HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM (only if 9/1 or less on Betfair at off time, looks borderline so advise waiting a bit)

    1pt win 2.40 U – Bosss Dream

    1. Hi Francis
      Thanks for yesterday. I had looked at that one but wasnt sure. When I read that your system had endorsed it I put £25 on at 4s. Got 9/2 bog so £112.5 profit when I actually wasnt going to bet on anything at all.
      Great job.

      1. Nice one Mike! I got a bit fortunate with it. One of my tipsters flagged up achill road boy after I wrote my post, that liberated me to back the system bet as well for some reason. I also sensed the force of Sod’s Law after taking the stance not to put up the system as an official qualifier! Achill Road Boy looked all over him 3 out but he really dug in well. Brave performance.

  12. no selections today.
    there were a few i looked at but all were to risky for a proper bet might sprinkle a few £1 ew’s on some of them.
    Uttoxeter.
    2-10.Catchin Time 10-1
    2-40. Houndscourt 14-1, Abbeygrey 22-1
    3-45. Theatrebar 12-1
    Ayr.
    2-50. Sammy B 25-1, Ebony Rose 20-1
    3-55. Westend Theatre 33-1
    4-25. Plus Jamais 16-1

  13. Another blank day. It’s not as if I’m not finding anything, it’s just that there’s little if any consistency. For example…. Mine’s A Pint has exciting sire stat’s given today’s racing conditions, however Keiran Burke’s past performance in novice events over jumps in general (0/32) worries me too much to ignore it. Of course there are runners that do meet all the criteria, the problem with them is that everyone else is on them.

    I just can’t seem to get all my ducks lined up at this time of the season well enough to not only get the horse, but to get the kind of odds I like to see too.

  14. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    A 2.20 – Side of theRoad on 4th run @ 14
    A 2.50 – Morning Royalty on 4th run @ 20
    Festival
    P 4.05 – Robinroyale on 6th run @ 6
    AW
    W 7.55 – Tuscany on 6th run @ 40
    3m+
    P 4.05 – Big Meadow on 7th run @ 9
    GL

  15. COLINS BETS
    2.40 Utoxeter The Boss’s Dream BOG 6/1
    2.50 Ayr Morning Royality BOG 20/1
    5.55 Wolverhampton Warriors Valley BOG 7/2

    ELITE BETS
    3.45 Uttoxeter Boreham Bill BOG 7/2
    6.55 Wolverhampton El Hombre BOG 8/1
    Colin

  16. Wolves update…..

    6.25 Divied…… 8.0

    I’ll try to post a late morning alert giving the likely times I’ll be posting the bulletins from now on Steve. Save you keep coming back to see if it’s up.

      1. fingers crossed! They were the two most interesting of the S1/S3A# brigade I think, given the moves in distance, certainly Alexander’s. We will see, on paper most have plenty of questions to my eyes but that’s the point in those strategies, esp S1. The day will go one way or the other! Fingers crossed.

    1. Yep they’ve made a comeback in recent weeks… was a case that just backing S3A# was as good as all S3As, and certainly ROI a lot higher, but all ES+ horses now having a decent season. Can’t say I back them systematically as yet! But glad you go stuck in.I’ll see what the scores are at end of month. Well done.
      The S1s looked a mediocre bunch on paper today, you hope one drops in but on paper at least I’m not that surprised! -6.5 point day for S1/S3A#. Manageable!

      1. I haven’t the cohones for S1, so my way in from purely the stats pack is solely ES+, and I haven’t been disappointed!

  17. Calling George B, back in the land of the (semi) living, how are you sir? Trainer thinks Apex Predator, 7.25 Wolverhampton has a squeak, tho would save on fav. Also like Sir Thomas G in the 6.55.

    If you fancy a cheeky multiple, I’m doing Kingi Compton (5.25), Warriors Valley (5.55), Nice to See (7.25). But bear in mind I might still be feverish 🙂

    1. hello Mark Curtis .
      I am afraid my shipping work has been coming first as my recent “awry” tipping competition selections have been showing us 🙁
      Nothing like a cheeky multiple .. so i shall see if i fancy joining in later 🙂

      gl/gb
      p.s. glad your back in the land of the living (any kind will do ) once again 🙂

          1. Thanks G, you the man! Sorry for my sorry selections today, at least you are firing them in 🙂

          2. mark c. ………….. You will be firing them in soon enough again ..like the good ol’ days 🙂
            p.s. hope you feel better soon ! 🙂
            gl/gb 🙂

          3. hi steve ,
            Just woke up this morning .. i think you may have been referring to my shipping business re the ship coming in ! ? 🙂 …. very good loving what you donme there .. haha 🙂 all good ! 🙂
            gl/gb

  18. All these stories about the pernicious bookies have reminded me of a ‘nearly’ tale. Possibly one of the best ways of beating the books imaginable.
    I’ll write it out and post it on tomorrows blog. All 100% true I promise.
    Hugh

  19. Another blank day. It’s not as if I’m not finding anything, it’s just that there’s little if any consistency. For example…. Mine’s A Pint has exciting sire stat’s given today’s racing conditions, however Keiran Burke’s past performance in novice events over jumps in general (0/32) worries me too much to ignore it. Of course there are runners that do meet all the criteria, the problem with them is that everyone else is on them.

    I just can’t seem to get all my ducks lined up at this time of the season well enough to not only get the horse, but to get the kind of odds I like to see too.

    1. Forgot to say be back at 4.30 with Wolves….. not that I believe that anyone out there will be holding their breath.

      1. Well I for one always check for your posts Tim as I’ve been grateful for past results … pity there isn’t an alert … probably is I’m not very technical ! I’ll keep having a crafty look on my phone at work . All the best

  20. Wolves update…..

    6.25 Divied…… 8.0

    I’ll try to post a late morning alert giving the likely times I’ll be posting the bulletins from now on Steve. Save you keep coming back to see if it’s up.

    1. Yep they’ve made a comeback in recent weeks… was a case that just backing S3A# was as good as all S3As, and certainly ROI a lot higher, but all ES+ horses now having a decent season. Can’t say I back them systematically as yet! But glad you go stuck in.I’ll see what the scores are at end of month. Well done.
      The S1s looked a mediocre bunch on paper today, you hope one drops in but on paper at least I’m not that surprised! -6.5 point day for S1/S3A#. Manageable!

      1. I haven’t the cohones for S1, so my way in from purely the stats pack is solely ES+, and I haven’t been disappointed!

  21. All these stories about the pernicious bookies have reminded me of a ‘nearly’ tale. Possibly one of the best ways of beating the books imaginable.
    I’ll write it out and post it on tomorrows blog. All 100% true I promise.
    Hugh

  22. Only one rule of a system – BACK ALL RUNNERS (see yesterday’s post!). Winner held on really gamely tbf.

    FRANCIS SYSTEM

    1pt win 4.05 P – Plantagenet
    1pt win 2.10 U – Catchin Time

    HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM (only if 9/1 or less on Betfair at off time, looks borderline so advise waiting a bit)

    1pt win 2.40 U – Bosss Dream

    1. Hi Francis
      Thanks for yesterday. I had looked at that one but wasnt sure. When I read that your system had endorsed it I put £25 on at 4s. Got 9/2 bog so £112.5 profit when I actually wasnt going to bet on anything at all.
      Great job.

      1. Nice one Mike! I got a bit fortunate with it. One of my tipsters flagged up achill road boy after I wrote my post, that liberated me to back the system bet as well for some reason. I also sensed the force of Sod’s Law after taking the stance not to put up the system as an official qualifier! Achill Road Boy looked all over him 3 out but he really dug in well. Brave performance.

  23. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    A 2.20 – Side of theRoad on 4th run @ 14
    A 2.50 – Morning Royalty on 4th run @ 20
    Festival
    P 4.05 – Robinroyale on 6th run @ 6
    AW
    W 7.55 – Tuscany on 6th run @ 40
    3m+
    P 4.05 – Big Meadow on 7th run @ 9
    GL

  24. 2.50 Ayr, Ebony Rose, 1 point each way at 20/1 in places now, 16/1 generally. Has won on the going, in the class and at the distance. And so at the price looks value.

  25. no selections today.
    there were a few i looked at but all were to risky for a proper bet might sprinkle a few £1 ew’s on some of them.
    Uttoxeter.
    2-10.Catchin Time 10-1
    2-40. Houndscourt 14-1, Abbeygrey 22-1
    3-45. Theatrebar 12-1
    Ayr.
    2-50. Sammy B 25-1, Ebony Rose 20-1
    3-55. Westend Theatre 33-1
    4-25. Plus Jamais 16-1

  26. COLINS BETS
    2.40 Utoxeter The Boss’s Dream BOG 6/1
    2.50 Ayr Morning Royality BOG 20/1
    5.55 Wolverhampton Warriors Valley BOG 7/2

    ELITE BETS
    3.45 Uttoxeter Boreham Bill BOG 7/2
    6.55 Wolverhampton El Hombre BOG 8/1
    Colin

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