Members Daily Post: 23/02/19 (complete)

Tips x3 + write ups, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Chepstow

3.40 –

Kapcorse   (micro age) 14,30 H1 3/1 

Shamburu Shujaa   (m class)  w1 H3 I1 G1 7/2 

4.15 – Commis D’Office   HcCh, m class) 16/1 S2A 

4.50 – Modeligo   (HcCh, m TJC) 12/1  S2

5.20 – Connect Four   (1st NHF) 14,30 10/1 S2

 

Kempton

1.15 –

Rocco   (m TJC) 30 14/1 S2 

Burrows Edge   (m TJC) 14,30 H3 7/2 

 

Newcastle

2.40 –

Baywing   (all Hc’s) 14/1 S2

Progress Drive   (all Hc’s) G3 14/1 S1 S2 

4.30 –

Clan Legend   (m TJC) 4/1

Bernadelli   (all Hc’s)  w1 I1 G3 8/1 S1+S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+BFSP) 

 

THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

 

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -9.9 )Best of Stats (29/153,68p, -1.2) Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 1/12,3p, -4)

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Big Race Tips

3.35 Kemp

Modus – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP

3.40 Chep 

SandyMount – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) UP

Tobefair – 1 point win – 33/1 (lad/coral/sporting b) – 28/1  2nd 20/1, decent run, very exciting, sadly winner didn’t stop, had the heart pounding up the straight if nothing else. Poor day. Moving on.

that’s all for today, 09.54, write ups…

(my Eider fancies from free post… Kimberlite Candy 10s, Kilkishen 12s, 1 point win on each) 

 

Modus… this horse will win a 3m handicap chase I think. Whether it’s today we will see but I couldn’t help myself at 12s, especially as Nicholl’s has superb stats when moving horses in distance. In 3m handicaps, moving horses up 1m from last run, he has a placed effort from two runners. Not a negative anyway! More importantly the horse does run as if he wants a trip and I also think this has been the plan. He is the classiest horse in the race, on what they have achieved to date, and he’s still lightly raced in handicaps. In the 2017 Lanzarote he hacked up over 2m5f, as if he hasn’t really had a race, and he wasn’t stopping at the end there. There’s plenty of middle distance form which suggests 3m around here could well be within range. He’s been outpaced a few times over 16f now, only getting up on the line at Cheltenham when winning earlier in the season. This slower tempo may also help his jumping and if he gets into a rhythm and just can cruise around, he will pick these off and out-class them if staying on at the end. Clearly he may not stay, but that’s why I wanted 12s+ and I get it.

I was on the fence as to the rest, albeit do like Adrien Du Pont – I didnt’ think 5s was overly generous – it makes his 9/2 LTO in a much weaker race look massive now. This has been the plan but he can take a tug, everything needs to drop right and he does have to be delivered late. I have the odd niggle with him when having to battle also, esp if upsides one jumping over the last and on the short run in. Maybe he’s just maturing and I can see why he has his fans. I can leave Giffords at the price -i’d want bigger. The race fell apart LTO and this is a test for a novice. He may pass it with flying colours, Glen Forsa’s Arkle price will shorten thereafter, and that will be that. I can’t have Talk Is Cheap at his price either, and he clearly needs to take a step forward. He may win but 4s< is short enough. Dierdo Vallis take s a big step up in class here, has stamina to prove, and may want it much softer on the evidence to date. I can’t touch a Mulholland horse at the moment given the yard form and surely he’s not good enough to win this. Famous last words – this race has had the odd surprising winner, he would be another one. Rather Be is interesting, a former Aintree winner for us all, but he was short given his form when last seen, the break, and the fact he’s unproven over the trip. He was 6s or so, which wasn’t value to my eyes. I couldn’t have the rest albeit i’ve nearly mentioned the whole field!

Chepstow…

Sandymount – I hope he’s backed but I thought he was worth a go at 14s… George is red hot at the moment and this one is unexposed in handicaps and over this trip – it could be the making of him given how he’s run before. I also thought he’d be here to run his race and his return after a lengthy lay-off LTO was promising. He could bounce but he didn’t have an overly hard race there but did show something. He should be a chaser in the making but whatever issues he’s had it looks like they want to get a few hurdle wins under the belt before the season is out maybe. IF he runs his race, he will out-run these odds and be staying on dourly at the end.

Tobefair… I may well have lost the plot but at 25s+ I just couldn’t help myself given his previous handicap hurdle form – in all likelihood he is just bang out of form and will be PU before they turn for home, but IF he could get back to anywhere near his best in handicap hurdles, he wouldn’t be far away here. Well, he has the best handicap hurdle form in the race. They’ve tried chasing this season and maybe LTO was him just telling them he really isn’t up for it. He had CP on for his first few runs, they were removed and he had a TT on LTO- maybe he resented that. Everything is off today and he returns to hurdles. He should be fit and here to run his race and I suspect connections don’t know what to expect. In the end I thought he was worth chancing at a big price. If nothing else it will help get me in the right ‘big priced frame of mind’ for the Festival handicap hurdles.

In part I wanted to have a go at them both as I really don’t like the top of the market. Clearly the Hobbs horse may streak away but this is deeper than that weak enough maiden hurdle and he took enough runs to get off the mark. He is a staying chaser in the making. The yard form niggled me also, in the context of his price. 0/20,3p in the last 14 days. He could get an easy lead and just keep going. I don’t like Kapcorse at the odds either given he has stamina to prove and really he is a handicap chaser. I suppose he wasn’t stopping at Newbury two starts back in a race which continues to work out well, but he beat nothing over hurdles LTO and after 49 days off i’m not sure what the plan is here- a prep before returning to fences in the spring somewhere? I may be asking for too much to get both of these beat but I couldn’t back them at the prices.

A 5 point outlay on the day across 3 races. I’d take just winning one of them right now, but we will see! Competitive stuff as always.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.10 K – Un Beau Roman 11/1

4.45 K – Golden Taipan 40/1

2.25 K – Deadline Diva 20/1

3.00 K – Normal Norman 66/1

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Trainers to follow

1.35 N – Tonicngin (11/1< guide) 15/2

2.40 N – Kimberlite Candy 9/1

Jockeys/Chasers

2.40 N – Vicente 5/1

4.50 C – Modeligo (16/1<) 12/1

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

1.15 K – Rhythm Is A dancer 7/1

3.40 C – Boyhood 7/1

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book 

5.05 N – Voila Eric (medium term/guide)  28/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

SAT Big Race Stats/Trends HERE>>>

 

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Cheltenham 2019 Big Race Stats Trends: HERE>>

(Day 1, 2, 3 now complete… Day 4 will be completed next week, as well as my micro angle pack for the week)

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Trends ‘Shortlists’ 

3.35 Kempton 

the x2 10/10 stats remove 4, leaving…

Glen Roco / Adrien Du Pont / Talk Is Cheap / Rather Be/ Modus/Didero Vallis 

 

3.40 Chep

One horse fits 11 of the 12 …. 5/5 stats, and that’s the fav… Kapcorse 

 

2.40 Newcastle

My 10/10 Eider stats leave a shortlist of 4…

Daklondike / Kimberlite Candy / Potters Corner / Progress Drive 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

35 Responses

  1. There was an article on geegeez about trainers to follow in spring.One was Matt Sheppard chasers was one of them,unfortunately i didn’t check his runners today and missed the bay birch,Mondeligo has favoured conditions tomorrow and is the only runner with winning course form,all his wins have come from feb onwards,looking at the list of horses in the line up,there aren’t that many trainers there exactly on fire,the 20/1 looks very good value all things considered

    1. The Sheppard runner has to be 20/1 or less and so if it drifts it is no bet.

      A system selection for Saturday.

      4.10 Kempton, Fox Appeal, 1 point each way, 15/2 now.

      1. Actual not competition tip – 1,15 KP, Rhythm Is A Dancer, 1 point each way, 9/1 now. We can forgive him his last run, his first in a handicap. His previous wins in novice company were solid and so we should give him a go here at the price.

        Good luck

        1. Yes it will be a qualifier. It may drift out a bit on Saturday. If you have not got 12/1 now I would leave it and see what happens.

  2. Glad to hear a few of you have been on the last couple of days. Obviously the ROI achieved to date is unsustainable but we can enjoy it whilst it lasts.

    5/1 was available last night on today’s winner but it will go on record at 10/3.

    RT+42.91

    2pt win 1.55 Chepstow – The Dubai Way
    2pt win 2.10 Newcastle – Cool Mix
    2pt win 4.30 Newcastle – Just Don’t ask
    2pt win 5.05 Newcastle – Off the Hook

    The staking may appear like overconfidence but it is just what the system is churning out…..an unusual clean sweep of 2 pointers!

  3. Well beware the Beach come Topham time is all I will say, he stayed on into 3rd and I believe his aim is now the Topham, so, flat track and hopefully if he does take to the National fences, he should be staying on when they have all cried foul!
    So, onto tomorrows, think i read someones post about prices, the reason why i post the prices is to help the newbies, most of my accounts are now suffering form the “we can let you have 2 pound each way on them”, so, i post to show what could accepted if you walked into a shop with a couple of quid in your hand, most of the high street bookies are open till 9- 10 in an evening, for me I don`t see the problem of that?
    14:40 Newcastle
    ANGE DES MALBREAUX 12/1 PP / BFR
    This fella will switch on and be staying on at the end, Bridget Andrews has won on him before, so, that`s a big plus, he has faetherweight and has been targetted at this, Mr Skelton targets these races like Martin Pipe used to and every now and again he would come up with a good un…
    KILKISHEN 12/1 gen 1pt win
    Now, everyone knows i like the Irish racing, the Mullins brothers (jockeys) have really made leaps and bounds this season and the horse is one of those maybe horses, He really powered away at Fairyhouse, only to meet the might of the Gigginstown masses at Punchestown LTO, the race was run at a funny pace and like i said the Gigginstown horses dominated and made it hard for all the “other” horses, so, to me the form was all skew whiff. This will be more up his street and the drying ground will help also and as Josh has picked this also, steer clear….haha.
    ROCK ON FRUITY 22/1 gen 1pt e/w
    Now, his last race and the one before were here, he clearly likes the place and even though Mr McLernon has jumped ship the able deputy Mr Cawley has won on him before, so, there will be no surprise if this fella stays on when all the others have cried foul!!
    22/1 is far too big for this two time Newcastle Course winner..

    As usual hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you pick tomorrow.
    I may add another one or two races in the morning.

    1. 15:35 Kempton
      WALT 18/1 gen 1pt e/w
      I am at a loss as to why this horse is the outsider of the lot? He is a really smart performer and I can only think that the alleged equine flu has affected Neil Mulhollands yard, (his horses haven`t been running with as much vigour as you would expect). Sam TD is booked and it seems interesting the booking of such a good jockey has gone unnoticed by the bookies, he absolutely destroyed his field at Taunton and ran De Rasher counter to a good race at Newbury LTO, value and thrown in at the bottom of the handicap…value at 18/1.
      DIDERO VALLIS 12/1 1pt win
      Now, Miss Williams is in my opinion, turning into our very own Jessica Harrington, you never really know what she has up her sleeve, but, she does know how to place them, whether it be a novice hurdle at Plumpton, or, a big Handicap Chase on a Saturday at Kempton…to that end, this fella is a rising star, another who like the one above likes to absolutely destroy his field, can see this turning into a war of attrition between my two selections, this for me is my race and nap of the day!!

    2. 15:40 Chepstow
      SHAMBURA SHUJAA 4/1 sky 1pt win
      I love Bryony Frost to bits, but, since her claim has gone I don`t think she is the same, in the respect of she still gives 100%, but, i think and again this is only my opinion, she was looking to get that claim out of the way and now some of her focus has gone, as in, “What do I want to do next??”. She may romp away with this and I may be made to eat my words, but, believe that Dicky is a wily old fox and he will have some more up his sleeve when push comes to shove! 4/1, i would be more nearer 2/1 for this as it`s been there done it got t-shirt horse..
      WICKED WILLY 9/1 Hills 1pt win
      If the front two don`t pick up then Jordan Nailor can take this with the “nearly” horse, he has been tried at all sorts of trips and distances, one of NTD favourite pastimes that, lets keep throwing darts at the board and see which stick, it works for him and I`m not knocking it, you have to keep persevering with some of these horses and once you have the formula right you wrap them up in cotton wool…(BLAKLION, BRISTOL DE MAI to name but two). Value at 9/1, fill the proverbial!

      1. Stewart, you are talking nonsense when it comes to B Frost! 🙂 In 2019, no claim, she’d 13/64, 26p, +32 BFSP all rides… she was riding at 9.35% win SR last year. She is just a much better jockey now – she’s 5/22,7p in handicap hurdles this year, 11/24,19p with all rides sent off 5/1 or shorter. I don’t like dealing in ‘feelings’ when it comes to jockeys (albeit we are all guilty of the odd subconscious prejudice no doubt) – the stats are always the best place to focus! Whether Kap wins today won’t be because she can’t be bothered anymore! She has to work harder for rides/to impress now than before, so the logic should be reversed if anything.

        1. As I said Josh, only my opinion, she is still one of the best race riders around and i do like it when she is on one of the horses she gets on with, Milansbar and Frodon to name two, its just i have been watching her race riding from last year to this and it seems as though “from an observation point of view only” and again it is my opinion only, that she seems to be riding differently. Can`t quite put my finger on it and maybe I`m explaining it wrong, but, like i said just my opinion.

          1. I wonder if, now, on Saturdays and at the Festival Bryony will attract mug punter money and her rides go off lacking value in the market? As Sherlock Holmes would say ‘food for thought’?

          2. Yes, that was the way I was trying to put it, more so as punters, we have to now pick and choose which rides we believe are value and Bryony will definitely be splashed all over the media if she is on a so called “good thing”.

  4. today’s selections,
    Kempton
    1-15. Rhythm Is A Dancer 9-1 4 places
    4-10. Fox Appeal 7-1 4 places
    Newcastle.
    2-40. Baywing 12-1 7 places
    3-55. Ted Veale 7-1
    Chepstow
    1-55. Robinshill 14-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

    1. down 5 pts but after the sad news about Baywing that’s completely unimportant, thoughts go out to all connected to him.

  5. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 3.05 – Jammin Masters on 3rd run @ 6/4
    N 2.40 – Vicente on 6th run @ 5
    3m+
    C 3.40 – Looksnowtlikebrian on 1st run @ 10
    …………Jetstream Jack on 4th run @ 50
    C 4.15 – Shanahans Turn on 4th run @ 7
    K 4.10 – Fox Appeal on 5th run @ 7
    F 4.00 – Pleasant Company on 4th and 5th run @ 8
    GL

  6. Apologies if missed it somewhere but anyone know if Nick may still be posting today as last one before his hols? He did say he was doing Friday and possibly some today a couple of days ago. I have had a mother of all Virus Bug since Sunday and not been very ‘with it’ t b h. Thanks

      1. Thanks Josh, i ve wished him well already for Hols. Look forward to seeing how it all goes when he returns. 🙂

  7. Firstly; what happened to my username?

    Secondly; I’ve looked further at the 3.35 Kempton and following on from Josh’s shortlist hacked at the remaining horses to sift to a selection looking at the last 12 years.
    10/12 winners had at least 3 runs over 24f or further – remove Rather Be & Modus
    Didero Vallis meets the criteria but its attempts over the distance have been poor so that is removed too.
    10/12 winners had at least 6 chase runs and 11/12 had at least 2 chase wins.
    Talk is Cheap fails on both stats so is given the heave ho.
    11/12 winners were rated 138 or higher – Glen Rocco falls 1lb short but has only run 5 chases albeit winning 2 of them.
    Adrien du Pont has the chase experience, wins, OR and is trained by an inform up and coming trainer 🙂 & ridden by a solid jockey at the course that he has to be the main selection.
    Glen Rocco is the saver.

    1. oh forgot to mention that AdP and Glen R have both got the blight of having run over fences at Kempton before but you’ve got to draw the line somewhere!

      1. Oh I mean in any race you can find a stat if you must that would remove every horse!! That’s one of those odd stats and doesn’t make too much logical sense, especially if the horse is unexposed! track form can rarely be seen as a negative as a rule. Plenty of those in that stats pool may have been exposed types in grip of handicapper etc.

  8. COLINS BETS
    3.50 Lingfield Mr Scaramanga BOG 4/1
    5.30 Wolverhampton Always Amazing BOG 13/2

    ELITE BETS
    4.10 Kempton Bandsman BOG 10/3
    Colin

  9. Hi everyone, I have been trying to come up with some systems using Inform Ratings system builder, at the moment I have a 3 mile + chase, class 2-4 hurdle and a couple of all weather systems, today they have come up with 3 selections, please don’t back them, the reason being every time I put a selection on Racing To Profit they fall out the back of the TV, but here go’s anyway all systems are E/W.
    Lingfield 1.30 Tobacco Road. 14/1
    Newcastle 2.40 Rock On Fruity. 20/1
    Wolves 7.30 Sioux Frontier 25/1.

    Good Luck to everyone today.

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