Free Daily Post: 23/02/19 (complete)

Free Tips

2.40 Newc – Eider Handicap Chase

Kimberlite Candy – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) UP 5/1

Kilkishen – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) 4th 16/1

as of 18.15 Friday, write ups…

 

Firstly, the stats… the 10/10 stats below leave a trends shortlist of 4: Daklondike / Kimberlite Candy / Potters Corner / Progress Drive. Clearly if they hold up, as they did at Haydock last week, one of those is winning.

Kimberlite Candy – I thought he was worth a go at 10s, albeit this morning he’s being nibbled but still plenty of 8s around… he appears to be getting the hang of the jumping game and it was his best run to date LTO, in a decent C2 at Sandown. He tracked the pace there, jumped well, and was doing all his best work late. He’s unexposed over staying trips (of course he may not get home but he runs as if he’s worth a go, and that’s why i wanted double figures), has course form, the yard are in fine form, and he looked the most interesting from my trends shortlist. He’s fit, in form, and should give it a good go, if running his race. He strengthened up before this season apparently, having been backwards,  and in the autumn he thumped Progress Drive at Ayr. I hope he may do so again, as clearly that’s a decent priced one on the stats shortlist that i’ve left. 7 year olds do just fine in this race – there isn’t a particular age that is preferred when looking at the stats, and he’s an exciting runner in this.

Kilkishen – one from left field I suppose but I did note that Irish trained runners are 3/14,4p in this race and it would be nice if he could add to those stats! He’s unexposed over fences and seemingly getting to grips with the game. He hacked up two starts back, powering away after the last. The two horses in behind him have since won so there’s some substance there. His trainer thinks he’s a dour stayer and after the last win said this was the target. It could be they wanted to get a run into him LTO, having maybe eased off him for a coupleweeks, or they changed plans and now this is an afterthought! That was a very deep race at Punchestown 13 days ago, packed with 140/145+ animals and a load of classier, dour, hardier types from team Gigginstown and Mullins. However he did plug on ok. I thought it interesting that Danny Mullins travels over and he knows him well. He may try and race up on the pace also and if he can get into a rhythm on the front end, he should just keep going. I thought he was worth chancing given his profile. Hopefully these two are in the front 1/4 of the field, lobbing along in their comfort zone.

Of the rest…

Vicente – I should mention the fav who clearly may just be too good for them, but I can’t help but take on favs in these races, esp when under 8s. The Scottish National is the long term plan again so I don’t know if he’ll be fully tuned up for this and while it is officially good to soft, it’s not ‘spring good’ and it could be that dead/tacky sort which he may not like. A repeat of his Scottish National defeat last year may be good enough to put him in the mix against this field but he is open to attack from more unexposed ones who ‘could’ improve for this distance. He is the right fav, teh been there and done it horse at a classier level, and maybe i’m foolish to take him on, but that’s how I like to play it.

If he does lose clearly I may have picked the wrong two, as is my want in recent weeks on these pages.

Potters Corner and Progress Drive were high on my list and the last ones crossed off it – in the end it was the jumping of Potters which put me off – both runs at Wincanton he’s taken liberties at the fences up the home straight and I thought that his jumping could be under the pump in a race like this. IF he has a clear round he’s interesting and James may try and give him daylight on the front end. I do wonder if he has the class for a race like this also, and in the end fancied the Irish raider over him. And I fancied him over Progress Drive... he’s had a minor wind op since his last run and the days rest, in prep for a gruelling race like this – did put me off. Kimberlite did thump him at Ayr earlier in the season when conditions were fine, he was fancied, and his jumping was shoddy that day. It was better in CP at Kelso, but he didn’t run like a thorough stayer there and this is much deeper than that – he went up and down on the spot a tad after the last – so a couple of niggles but his trainer thinks he has a staying chase in him and he may well be thereabouts after the last.  I suppose when you place in a border’s national it’s hard to say he doesn’t stay. He was 14s and is the biggie I fear most having got wrong but there were just too many niggles for me. I’d have liked a more recent run/some more recent form.

Just Your Type is awfully short for one with his profile, having fallen LTO. Yes he’s unexposed but 13/2 is just ridiculous, whatever he does here. I can’t have him. I’m not sure I could have had him at twice this price. If he wins then so be it but I can’t have him at all.

Ange Des Malberaux.. has been thumped by the handicapper and while he’s improving fast, he does have a whiff of being a ‘summer horse’ to my eyes and i’m not sure as to the strength of his form. He does run as if staying and he couldn’t be in better form, but this is a step up in class and I was happy to leave him. I thought there could be classier stayers/with more in hand, than him here.

West of The Edge … he’s an awful price given his recent form and i’m sure he wants it much softer. I couldn’t have him either and he was outstayed in this last year.

Crosspark…he’s more interesting but has had a couple of goes in the Classic Chase which suggest to me that 3m5f just stretches him, and I’m not sure he’ll get home here over further. At least he has form in marathon tests and that is a positive, but I thought again that he was open to attack from something more progressive. He learnt to settle before this season hence some better recent form, but i’d like to think this may be too far for him. But, along with the Richards horse, he’s a lurker at 16s, and I can see why some would be interested. I’d like to think he’ll place at best.

Daklondike… I thought this would be too lively for him. All his best form is in proper heavy – ‘haydock heavy’ , dourly staying on when everything else has had enough. Maybe he’ll do that today but I couldn’t have him on this ground. He also has a big weight to lug around and the handicapper may have him now.

Baywing… I can leave a 10 year old who looks out of form and PU on their last start, even one who won the race last year. Again I think he wants it softer to slow everything down and this may happen too quick for him. But, I can leave him. I don’t like chasers that PU LTO going into big races like this – if they look out of form, most of the time they are. Famous last words.

Rock On Fruity…well his recent course form entitles him to respect but he’s not getting any younger, has stamina to prove (like many in fairness, inc mine) and i’m not sure he has the class, even if staying ok – those last two races were not the strongest and I assume Richie M had the choice. Of those 20s+ though, he’s the best of them to my eyes.

For a variety of reasons I can’t have Mysteree, Morney Wing, Harry The Viking and Raz De Maree and if one wins I was never destined to find the winner today.

Best of luck with any fancies. As I type my Irish poke is on the walk and Progress Drive is being backed. That would be typical! 🙂

Josh

 

*

Stats/Trends

 

2.40- Eider Handicap Chase

10/156, 37p

10/10 sent off 18/1 or shorter SP (20/1+ : 0/47, 7p)

10/10 carried 10-8 or more (ex claims) (10-7< : 0/54, 10p)

10/10 yet to WIN beyond 3m4.5f (28.5f) (Had won 29f+ : 0/50,9p)

10/10 had 2-5 runs this season (did not: 0/29, 2p)

10/10 had 1-11 handicap chase RUNs (did not: 0/66, 11p)

10/10 had 0-4 handicap wins (5+ : 0/29, 1p)

10/10 had 1-4 chase wins (did not: 0/35, 2p)

9/10 had 10-19 career runs (did not: 1/97, 15p) (winner 2007, 2015> 0/46, 6p)

8/10 Top 5 in the weights (exc claims) (8/56, 18p)

 

Other

  • 2 handicap chase wins exactly: 0/42, 9p

 

Trainers (18 renewals) (with runners)

  • X1: N Richards/V Williams/R Dobbin/D Pipe/M Scudamore

*
Cleeve Racing Free Cheltenham Yankee report

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Going at the 16:20 @ Newcastle from two different trends angles, one being from age, weight, OR, origin and dslr and the other from season runs, wins, max dist run and won, the only horse to scrape through both for me was Potters Corner. So I have myself a bet! Sorry Josh I can’t have Kimberlite Kandy on age alone, yeah a 7yo might do it but it’s more likely to be 9, 10 or 11 for me but Kilkishen definitely has a squeak. Good Luck, but I think Potters Corner can go very close if he jumps well when the pressure is on.

    chris 12/08/19 4:54 AM Reply


    • Best of luck Chris. From the stats I’m looking at being 7 isn’t a neg and the win % and place % to no. runners is fairly consistent across all the ages really. He may not stay but he shapes as if he will and that run LTO is one of best prices of recent handicapping form in this I think. We will see. I picked the Irish one over potter’s , esp as those raiders have a good record in this and it’s been the plan since his win. It was Potter’s jumping that put me off. He’s walked through a few on both his last runs when under pressure and I thought he could be struggling early here. Even if he jumps well I wasn’t sure he’d be good enough but time will tell whether I’ve got that right. The last horse I crossed off my list last week won at Haydock so I’ve form!

      Josh 12/08/19 11:29 AM Reply


  • Going at the 16:20 @ Newcastle from two different trends angles, one being from age, weight, OR, origin and dslr and the other from season runs, wins, max dist run and won, the only horse to scrape through both for me was Potters Corner. So I have myself a bet! Sorry Josh I can’t have Kimberlite Kandy on age alone, yeah a 7yo might do it but it’s more likely to be 9, 10 or 11 for me but Kilkishen definitely has a squeak. Good Luck, but I think Potters Corner can go very close if he jumps well when the pressure is on.

    chris 22/02/19 10:02 PM Reply


    • Best of luck Chris. From the stats I’m looking at being 7 isn’t a neg and the win % and place % to no. runners is fairly consistent across all the ages really. He may not stay but he shapes as if he will and that run LTO is one of best prices of recent handicapping form in this I think. We will see. I picked the Irish one over potter’s , esp as those raiders have a good record in this and it’s been the plan since his win. It was Potter’s jumping that put me off. He’s walked through a few on both his last runs when under pressure and I thought he could be struggling early here. Even if he jumps well I wasn’t sure he’d be good enough but time will tell whether I’ve got that right. The last horse I crossed off my list last week won at Haydock so I’ve form!

      Josh 22/02/19 10:26 PM Reply


      • I’m concerned that it is over 2 years since Potters Corner ran at a left handed track and for that alone I’d pass over it. Horses are creatures of habit and they have their preferred leading leg.

        Andrew Gallagher 23/02/19 10:04 AM Reply


        • To put it another way Andrew it’s 4 runs since Potters ran on a LH track 😉

          chris 23/02/19 10:58 AM Reply


          • true, but he jumped out to his right at times there and clattered a few also – albeit in that context it was a rather good run! He’s interesting if jumping but I can’t back them all haha – if he stands up he’ll give you a good spin.

            Josh 23/02/19 11:00 AM Reply


        • yep very true, but even RH on last two starts – my word he’s put in some scary leaps, one of them clearly bringing him down LTO- jumped that like he’d never seen a fence – and he’s had all the time in the world to measure them – maybe somewhere like market rasen for their boxing day national maybe more suitable – i’d like to think this is too hot, but we will see.

          Josh 23/02/19 10:59 AM Reply


  • Race 1 14:05 Lingfield
    Gorgeous Noora
    Race 2 14:25 Kempton
    Petit Palais
    Race 3 14:30 Chepstow
    Havana River
    Race 4 14:40 Newcastle
    Kimberlite Candy
    Race 5 14:50 Fairyhouse
    Chatham Street Lad
    Race 6 15:00 Kempton
    Brecon Hill
    Race 7 15:35 Kempton
    Walt
    5p ew accum for a £1/4M

    Martin Whittle 12/08/19 4:54 AM Reply


  • good morning back from self exile!! my fancies today as follows,hope all is well and good luck with your bets today
    newcastle
    2.40 vicente 11/2
    crosspark 16/1 5places
    4.30 tayzar 13/2
    kempton
    3.35 double shuffle 9/1 4places
    4.10 conna cross 9/2
    chepstow
    4.15 overtown express 11/2

    all my bets are each way

    dee 12/08/19 4:54 AM Reply


    • Welcome back Dee. Are you fully charged?
      Mike

      Titus 12/08/19 11:29 AM Reply


  • AW
    L 2.05 – Cornithia Knight @ 5
    L 3.15 – Master of the World e/w @ 10
    GL

    Titus 12/08/19 4:54 AM Reply


    • one to add at WAW
      8.00 – Little Miss Kodi @ 8

      Titus 12/08/19 11:29 AM Reply


  • Kilkishen available at 20/1 at Matchbook.

    Clive Richmond 12/08/19 4:54 AM Reply


  • Race 1 14:05 Lingfield
    Gorgeous Noora
    Race 2 14:25 Kempton
    Petit Palais
    Race 3 14:30 Chepstow
    Havana River
    Race 4 14:40 Newcastle
    Kimberlite Candy
    Race 5 14:50 Fairyhouse
    Chatham Street Lad
    Race 6 15:00 Kempton
    Brecon Hill
    Race 7 15:35 Kempton
    Walt
    5p ew accum for a £1/4M

    Martin Whittle 23/02/19 6:31 AM Reply


  • Ariden du pont 3.35 kempton Modeligo 4.50 Chepstow ew double Antony

    Antony church 12/08/19 4:54 AM Reply


  • good morning back from self exile!! my fancies today as follows,hope all is well and good luck with your bets today
    newcastle
    2.40 vicente 11/2
    crosspark 16/1 5places
    4.30 tayzar 13/2
    kempton
    3.35 double shuffle 9/1 4places
    4.10 conna cross 9/2
    chepstow
    4.15 overtown express 11/2

    all my bets are each way

    dee 23/02/19 8:23 AM Reply


    • Welcome back Dee. Are you fully charged?
      Mike

      Titus 23/02/19 9:07 AM Reply


      • cheers mike,i hope a break has done me good ! took time out to go through my results (or lack of them !!) so from now on i will be focusing on,

        handicap chases
        class 1,2,3 only
        8 or more runners
        5/1 plus as i always play each way

        today ive taken conna cross at 9/2 but i think the top two in the market will shorten,thus pushing this one out

        how have you been going mike,you having much joy ?

        dee 23/02/19 9:36 AM Reply


        • Iv’e been a bit barren with my own bets this year so far although this week will end in a bit of profit just doing AW. I’d normally have plenty of NH bets at this time of year but hard to see the wood at the moment.

          Titus 23/02/19 9:58 AM Reply


  • AW
    L 2.05 – Cornithia Knight @ 5
    L 3.15 – Master of the World e/w @ 10
    GL

    Titus 23/02/19 9:05 AM Reply


    • one to add at WAW
      8.00 – Little Miss Kodi @ 8

      Titus 23/02/19 10:09 AM Reply


  • Kilkishen available at 20/1 at Matchbook.

    Clive Richmond 23/02/19 11:21 AM Reply


  • Ariden du pont 3.35 kempton Modeligo 4.50 Chepstow ew double Antony

    Antony church 23/02/19 11:38 AM Reply


Post A Reply