Members Daily Post: 20/02/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Ludlow

5.10 – Panic And Run   (HcH. micro class) G3 14/1 S1 S2 

 

Doncaster

None

 

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -14.4 )Best of Stats (29/153,68p, -1.2) Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 1/9,2p, -1)

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None on Wednesday.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.40 Lud – Quantum of Solace Evens

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

4.00 D – Bally Longford 9/2

Trainers to follow

3.00 L – Flashing Glance 11/4

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

3.25 D – Court Liability 3/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Cheltenham Festival 2019 

Big Race Stats/Trends Day 1: READ HERE>>>

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If you missed it….

The Future of my tipping…

It’s with regret that i’ve concluded, and probably not before time , that my attempts to become a jack of all trades on the daily front has resulted in becoming a master of none. (I can hear Chubnut downing a bottle of the good stuff already, in approval :)) I don’t like being crap at anything I do but my attempts to turn myself into a daily tipster, across varied race type/horse types etc etc has just failed. It wasn’t an element that ever existed on here before, and it’s best I just stop. I’m clearly not very good and that is for a variety of reasons that I don’t need to bore you with, but for the future of this blog and probably my mental well-being, it makes sense to take a step back and stop.

What will I be tipping?

Well as Martin C pointed out a few days back, I used to just focus on 3m+ handicap chases and indeed there wouldn’t be a blog without my initial focus on those in the free posts, before the members’ club existed, which isn’t even 3 years old yet. SO… I intend to go back to that, with a focus on Class 3 and above 3m+ handicap chases – so any daily tips in here, will just focus on those for the time being, but i’ll be more selective. The big class 2/Grade 3 staying chases will still live in the free posts, but they are mainly Saturdays.

Big Race Tips… History would suggest this is the only tipping area I’m any good at and there’s a real danger of these being negatively affected if I carry on the path I’ve tried to sprint down. There’s nothing I enjoy more in this game than attacking a big jumps handicap, especially at Festivals, and our friend Stewart has demonstrated the benefit of such focus. When I’m on my game with those I’m pretty decent.

This decision will free up more time to focus on the business, which includes doing more research content of interest and generally trying to keep on top of everything, and improve it.  I’m still a one man band and I’ve been trying to do too much. I’ve concluded that if i’m not careful everything may become mediocre and i’m in danger of falling out of love with the game. Clearly I don’t want to reach that point!

I’m lucky that there are many of you who are very good tipsters and are willing to share. The tipping comp appears to be unearthing some gems, on top of those who have been doing well for longer.

A reminder that jumps strategies S1 + S3A# pulled in +152 points or so in 2018, and my Big Race Tips (inc free post) another +183. If those three elements can continue to add 200-300+ points a year as a portfolio, I should be happy with that as my profit contribution – while working out how to eek out more systematic profit from the stats etc.

We all know about the exploits of Nick Mazur, and he’s a 10x (100x…) better daily tipster than I’m proving to be -albeit some of his recent picks would indicate he’s caught whatever disease I have!! 🙂 (poke poke…I’m expecting a text in 3,2,1, reminding me of Sykes!) The lucky sod is off on holiday for two weeks this Friday, but thankfully many of you appear to be smashing it, to fill the void. George, Warren, Jim and others have had quite the month so far in the Tipping Comp, as have ‘the Martins’ and others. Tim’s been having a great time since he started posting, his results reflecting his private success, and long may it continue. Stewart has been doing very well, Colin will get back to his best and I know there are others also so don’t be offended if I haven’t mentioned you! 🙂 I don’t think there’s a better collection of recreational racing experts around in truth and some of you put many stand alone tipping services to shame. There simply isn’t any need for me to keep slaving away on the daily front, to the detriment of everything else. I need to get back my focus, start concentrating on where I’ve had success and get stuck into the puzzles I enjoy trying to solve.

So, that’s that. I don’t think this decision is a great loss to the daily content. But with any luck it should improve the overall experience, my happiness, and the long term enjoyment/profits. If you’ve made losses following the ‘best of’ tips (esp if starting at their high point, gulp) or the daily tips, apologies (so have I!) – i’ll get all those points back with interest, in big races.

Onto tomorrow. Josh

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

69 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Colins Bets
    Doctors appointment 9.20 so the bets will be on late.

    colins bets another 2nd 10/3 to 5/2, frustrating at the moment the tide will turn.
    elite bet won 5/4 from 7/2.
    Colin.

    cleafe 11/08/19 9:45 PM Reply


  • after timing i know but i’m taking the wife out for a romantic meal tonight so chucked a couple of quid on Amor Fati 🙂 might pay for the drinks.

    Martin Whittle 11/08/19 9:45 PM Reply


    • Yes your after timing for valentines day Martin

      gearoid180468 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


      • are you a paddy ?

        chubnut 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


  • Mad Jack Mytton Ludlow 15:00 1pt e/w 12/1
    Dans Le Vent Doncaster 15:25 1pt e/w 6/1
    Burn Baby Byrne Ludlow 17:10 1pt e/w 9/1

    nickmazur 11/08/19 9:45 PM Reply


    • Burn baby byrne holiday cash ( wink)

      chubnut 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


    • Well at least I am finding new ways to lose. Horse hasn’t had any issues with his previous 32 stats until I tipped him 🙁

      nickmazur 11/08/19 9:45 PM Reply


  • Actual not competition tip – 3.25 Doncaster, Skidoosh 1 point each way at 9/1 BOG. A prominent runner stepping up to 3 miles, which should suit.

    Systems selection – Emma Lavelle handicappers 5/1 +.

    4.00 Don, Junction Fourteen.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 11/08/19 9:45 PM Reply


  • Colins Bets
    Doctors appointment 9.20 so the bets will be on late.

    colins bets another 2nd 10/3 to 5/2, frustrating at the moment the tide will turn.
    elite bet won 5/4 from 7/2.
    Colin.

    cleafe 19/02/19 6:54 PM Reply


  • after timing i know but i’m taking the wife out for a romantic meal tonight so chucked a couple of quid on Amor Fati 🙂 might pay for the drinks.

    Martin Whittle 19/02/19 7:23 PM Reply


    • Yes your after timing for valentines day Martin

      gearoid180468 19/02/19 7:24 PM Reply


      • classic gambling ploy. Fake tom dick valentines, 30 quid punting arthur saved on Days over charging ( thumbs up smiley)

        chubnut 19/02/19 7:52 PM Reply


      • are you a paddy ?

        chubnut 19/02/19 7:53 PM Reply


        • yep chubnut,gerard michael patrick for good measure

          gearoid180468 19/02/19 8:56 PM Reply


          • LOL I’m a Michael Patrick as well. Hiding from various government agencies in deepest Sligo ( laughing and crying smiley )

            chubnut 19/02/19 8:59 PM Reply


          • A pirate “Niall of the nine hostages” brought us St Patrick and we sent you back Terry Wogan.Not sure what happened to the other eight hostages but the trade in snakeskin boots went bust

            gearoid180468 19/02/19 9:09 PM Reply


            • Ah that’s where you get your literary skills,following in the trail of Yeats as you gaze on Ben Bulben

              gearoid180468 19/02/19 9:12 PM Reply


              • I have Ben bulben in my window ( wonderful smiley) Shame about the rain. Sligo racecourse is the most scenic ever but never have I seen a card with so many duck eggs!!

                chubnut 19/02/19 9:27 PM Reply


                • Many times man lives and dies
                  Between his two eternities,
                  That of race and that of soul,
                  And ancient Ireland knew it all.
                  Whether man dies in his bed
                  Or the rifle knocks him dead,
                  A brief parting from those dear
                  Is the worst man has to fear.
                  Though grave-diggers’ toil is long,
                  Sharp their spades, their muscle strong,
                  They but thrust their buried men
                  Back in the human mind again.

                  gearoid180468 19/02/19 9:33 PM Reply


                  • This place is magical and while I initially laughed at the poetry, song and mythology, it soon grips your soul. Sadly winners are a harder task ( smiley)

                    chubnut 19/02/19 10:07 PM Reply


  • Mad Jack Mytton Ludlow 15:00 1pt e/w 12/1
    Dans Le Vent Doncaster 15:25 1pt e/w 6/1
    Burn Baby Byrne Ludlow 17:10 1pt e/w 9/1

    nickmazur 19/02/19 8:34 PM Reply


    • Burn baby byrne holiday cash ( wink)

      chubnut 19/02/19 8:56 PM Reply


    • Well at least I am finding new ways to lose. Horse hasn’t had any issues with his previous 32 stats until I tipped him 🙁

      nickmazur 20/02/19 3:10 PM Reply


  • no selections today, iv’e put a few fancies up on tipping post

    Martin Whittle 11/08/19 9:45 PM Reply


  • Actual not competition tip – 3.25 Doncaster, Skidoosh 1 point each way at 9/1 BOG. A prominent runner stepping up to 3 miles, which should suit.

    Systems selection – Emma Lavelle handicappers 5/1 +.

    4.00 Don, Junction Fourteen.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 19/02/19 8:58 PM Reply


  • no selections today, iv’e put a few fancies up on tipping post

    Martin Whittle 20/02/19 1:56 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    L 3.35 – Lord Ballim on 1st run @ 16
    AW
    W 6.00 – Last Chance Paddy on 2nd run @ 33
    W 7.00 – Esprit de Corps on 5th run @ 8
    3m+
    P 2.40 – Slowmotion on 6th run @ 33
    P 3.15 – Oscar Knight @ 9
    GL

    Titus 11/08/19 9:45 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Chelmsford
    6.45 Busy Street BOG 3/1
    7.45 Zorawar BOG 2/1
    8.15 Chakrii BOG 4/1

    ELITE BETS
    2.00 Newcastle Elysees Palace BOG 9/4
    6.45 Chelmsford Lucky Deal BOG 7/4
    Wolverhampton
    7.00 Blame Culture BOG 4/1
    7.30 Eye Of The Water BOG 4/1
    Colin.

    cleafe 11/08/19 9:45 PM Reply


    • Three more elite winners today. Many thanks

      danegold 11/08/19 9:45 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    I am going to Huntingdon tomorrow as one of our new syndicate horses He’s No Trouble is running in the 2-50 race if you have time can you look at doing a through the card for us any help would be greatly appreciated thanks

    Peter Lucas

    peter0104 11/08/19 9:45 PM Reply


    • I’ll see what I can do… tomorrow, across the board, looks a quite atrocious days racing! Best of luck with the horse. Blessed runs again Friday, I need to work out whether to head down.

      Josh 12/08/19 11:10 AM Reply


      • Hi Josh

        Thanks for that does look dire racing tomorrow so no probs if you don’t manage to find anything. would seriously think about going to see Blessed run you always seem to have a good time when you go

        Regards

        Peter

        peter0104 12/08/19 11:29 AM Reply


  • For George B, and any fellow AW followers: it looks very competitive today. I think Colin will have a good day but my best bets are in the 18.00 Wolverhampton. Mark Usher fancies Marshall Aid to run well, so EW on that plus win on Butterfield for Tony Carroll, interesting jockey booking? Good luck 🙂

    Mark Curtis 11/08/19 5:42 PM Reply


    • hi mark
      this what i am thinking ?? (and to be fair after today i am probably not thinking straight 🙂 )
      7.00 Wolverhampton 7 Murdanova (IRE) = jockey and trainer on the hot list
      7.00 Wolverhampton 4 Blame Culture (USA)
      8.00 wolves La Sioux (IRE) = well bred for aw / good draw
      as i say nothing on our system 🙁
      hope you winning today ?
      gl/gb

      George B 11/08/19 9:45 PM Reply


      • Hi George not so you’d notice 🙂

        Mark Curtis 12/08/19 4:09 AM Reply


    • hi mark,
      Bally work getting in the way of fings at the mo 🙁 .. nothing today for our mighty joint venture one 😉 .. will report back asap on any others … my beginners luck seems to be rubbing away now as is the norm in my life 🙂 thanks for your pointers .. when my shipping world stops spinning and calms down .. i shall have a look at things
      cheers
      gb

      George B 11/08/19 5:42 PM Reply


  • 3.35 Ludlow-Muckle Roe 10/1

    Has never won on this going jockey has very good chase record at the course and for trainer.at 10/1 might just make the difference

    gearoid180468 11/08/19 5:42 PM Reply


  • NEW blog post for anyone interested… How to find handicap hurdle winers at The Cheltenham Festival…

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2019/02/20/cheltfest2019/

    Josh

    Josh 11/08/19 5:42 PM Reply


  • Francis system
    3.00 sparkleandshine
    3.25 court liability
    1pt win each

    Francis Batt 11/08/19 5:42 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    L 3.35 – Lord Ballim on 1st run @ 16
    AW
    W 6.00 – Last Chance Paddy on 2nd run @ 33
    W 7.00 – Esprit de Corps on 5th run @ 8
    3m+
    P 2.40 – Slowmotion on 6th run @ 33
    P 3.15 – Oscar Knight @ 9
    GL

    Titus 20/02/19 9:01 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Chelmsford
    6.45 Busy Street BOG 3/1
    7.45 Zorawar BOG 2/1
    8.15 Chakrii BOG 4/1

    ELITE BETS
    2.00 Newcastle Elysees Palace BOG 9/4
    6.45 Chelmsford Lucky Deal BOG 7/4
    Wolverhampton
    7.00 Blame Culture BOG 4/1
    7.30 Eye Of The Water BOG 4/1
    Colin.

    cleafe 20/02/19 10:45 AM Reply


    • Three more elite winners today. Many thanks

      danegold 20/02/19 9:53 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    I am going to Huntingdon tomorrow as one of our new syndicate horses He’s No Trouble is running in the 2-50 race if you have time can you look at doing a through the card for us any help would be greatly appreciated thanks

    Peter Lucas

    peter0104 20/02/19 11:53 AM Reply


    • I’ll see what I can do… tomorrow, across the board, looks a quite atrocious days racing! Best of luck with the horse. Blessed runs again Friday, I need to work out whether to head down.

      Josh 20/02/19 1:58 PM Reply


      • Hi Josh

        Thanks for that does look dire racing tomorrow so no probs if you don’t manage to find anything. would seriously think about going to see Blessed run you always seem to have a good time when you go

        Regards

        Peter

        peter0104 20/02/19 3:26 PM Reply


  • For George B, and any fellow AW followers: it looks very competitive today. I think Colin will have a good day but my best bets are in the 18.00 Wolverhampton. Mark Usher fancies Marshall Aid to run well, so EW on that plus win on Butterfield for Tony Carroll, interesting jockey booking? Good luck 🙂

    Mark Curtis 20/02/19 11:58 AM Reply


    • hi mark,
      Bally work getting in the way of fings at the mo 🙁 .. nothing today for our mighty joint venture one 😉 .. will report back asap on any others … my beginners luck seems to be rubbing away now as is the norm in my life 🙂 thanks for your pointers .. when my shipping world stops spinning and calms down .. i shall have a look at things
      cheers
      gb

      George B 20/02/19 1:35 PM Reply


    • hi mark
      this what i am thinking ?? (and to be fair after today i am probably not thinking straight 🙂 )
      7.00 Wolverhampton 7 Murdanova (IRE) = jockey and trainer on the hot list
      7.00 Wolverhampton 4 Blame Culture (USA)
      8.00 wolves La Sioux (IRE) = well bred for aw / good draw
      as i say nothing on our system 🙁
      hope you winning today ?
      gl/gb

      George B 20/02/19 5:34 PM Reply


      • Hi George not so you’d notice 🙂

        Mark Curtis 20/02/19 7:30 PM Reply


        • At least Blame Culture went in? How about Archdeacon in the last,
          Ivory, Kirby, backed earlier 🙂

          Mark Curtis 20/02/19 7:34 PM Reply


  • 3.35 Ludlow-Muckle Roe 10/1

    Has never won on this going jockey has very good chase record at the course and for trainer.at 10/1 might just make the difference

    gearoid180468 20/02/19 12:08 PM Reply


  • NEW blog post for anyone interested… How to find handicap hurdle winers at The Cheltenham Festival…

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2019/02/20/cheltfest2019/

    Josh

    Josh 20/02/19 12:13 PM Reply


  • Francis system
    3.00 sparkleandshine
    3.25 court liability
    1pt win each

    Francis Batt 20/02/19 12:31 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, I think you deserve great commendation for sticking at your daily tips so long. You must have been almost as convinced as Theresa May is that she has a great deal despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Personally I shall look forward to the reversion to your specialities of 3m+ chases and the festivals. Having taken your advice of using everyone’s tips as a starting point for analysis (other than Nick’s) I have not suffered much. Your post says so much about the integrity with which you run the blog. I am sure a return to form in time for Cheltenham is as much of a certainty as Nicky Henderson wearing a yellow v neck sweater.
    Hugh

    alpha2 20/02/19 1:18 PM Reply


    • You can buy those yellow V neck sweaters in the shopping village at the festival. My brother bought one.

      martin colwell 20/02/19 1:23 PM Reply


    • haha, cheers Hugh… well it was probably stupid to be so dogmatic for so long, esp not under a ‘test’ banner… I should be good at daily stuff long term, with right approach, and it’s just taken me a while to realise that what with everything else I just can’t do it successfully. I do feel like a weight has been lifted – I was getting drained with that morning routine, 7.30-10, looking intensely at that day’s racing, doing the write ups etc – compounded by losing and losing, and losing some more. I’d get to 10.30 and my head would have had a work out already, before I then had a 6h window to do what I would recall as ‘proper work’, all the research stuff and everything else that goes with a business, only to then get to 4.30 ish and start on the next day’s post, before calling stumps on the day about 6. It’s just not a practical solution for a one man band, and I think it got to the point of affecting everything else negatively – I mean that post I put up today was my first in I don’t know how long – but too long. This approach should help restore the balance and my mental state – it was getting to the point where I didn’t want to look at a horse race – and when you run a racing blog, that’s not a good place to be!!

      If I can repeat the last two years that would be welcome, and i’ll be trying my best to do so.

      Josh 20/02/19 1:43 PM Reply


      • Yes Josh, I’ve given up trying to get right through the 2yo season, if it isn’t fun and you don’t sit down to look at a race with a bit of excitement then it just becomes a grind.

        Also, I reckon it’s taken me 20 years to be really relaxed about not having a bet.
        Hugh

        alpha2 20/02/19 3:40 PM Reply


  • Another poor day for novice races so no jumps for me today. Only one this afternoon of interest in the conditions race at Newcastle. The thinking behind it is based upon Zebedee’s poor record at the track (7%) in non hcp races, so the favourite, who has yet to even see an AW track might not be as effective under the conditions as is anticipated by the market.

    The selection has drifted a little most likely due to it’s uninspiring show at Wolves last time out. but it’s sire is poor at Wolverhampton whereas has a 15% SR in non hcp events at Newcastle. The Fav’ still has good chances but 5/6 for a horse that has yet to race on an artificial surface seems very short to me.

    N/c 3.45 Quiet Endeavour………… 8.0

    Tim Hanson 20/02/19 1:35 PM Reply


    • Back at 4.30 with the AW update but is not looking good from what I’ve seen so far.

      Tim Hanson 20/02/19 1:41 PM Reply


      • Well…. my theory regarding the fav’ proved correct but unfortunately our horse didn’t take advantage. It did get backed in to 7/1 from tens in the last 5 minutes but I was a little disappointed with the ride from Holly Doyle. Going flat out from the front is a lousy strategy for Newcastle.

        Anyways…. tonight.

        Chel’ 5.15 Revolutionise…… 6.0

        Tim Hanson 20/02/19 4:31 PM Reply


  • great pick with skidoosh Martin

    general6969 12/08/19 11:10 AM Reply


  • great pick with skidoosh Martin

    general6969 20/02/19 9:42 PM Reply


  • Another poor day for novice races so no jumps for me today. Only one this afternoon of interest in the conditions race at Newcastle. The thinking behind it is based upon Zebedee’s poor record at the track (7%) in non hcp races, so the favourite, who has yet to even see an AW track might not be as effective under the conditions as is anticipated by the market.

    The selection has drifted a little most likely due to it’s uninspiring show at Wolves last time out. but it’s sire is poor at Wolverhampton whereas has a 15% SR in non hcp events at Newcastle. The Fav’ still has good chances but 5/6 for a horse that has yet to race on an artificial surface seems very short to me.

    N/c 3.45 Quiet Endeavour………… 8.0

    Tim Hanson 11/08/19 5:42 PM Reply


    • Back at 4.30 with the AW update but is not looking good from what I’ve seen so far.

      Tim Hanson 11/08/19 8:46 PM Reply


      • Well…. my theory regarding the fav’ proved correct but unfortunately our horse didn’t take advantage. It did get backed in to 7/1 from tens in the last 5 minutes but I was a little disappointed with the ride from Holly Doyle. Going flat out from the front is a lousy strategy for Newcastle.

        Anyways…. tonight.

        Chel’ 5.15 Revolutionise…… 6.0

        Tim Hanson 11/08/19 8:46 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, I think you deserve great commendation for sticking at your daily tips so long. You must have been almost as convinced as Theresa May is that she has a great deal despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Personally I shall look forward to the reversion to your specialities of 3m+ chases and the festivals. Having taken your advice of using everyone’s tips as a starting point for analysis (other than Nick’s) I have not suffered much. Your post says so much about the integrity with which you run the blog. I am sure a return to form in time for Cheltenham is as much of a certainty as Nicky Henderson wearing a yellow v neck sweater.
    Hugh

    alpha2 11/08/19 5:42 PM Reply


    • You can buy those yellow V neck sweaters in the shopping village at the festival. My brother bought one.

      martin colwell 11/08/19 8:46 PM Reply


    • haha, cheers Hugh… well it was probably stupid to be so dogmatic for so long, esp not under a ‘test’ banner… I should be good at daily stuff long term, with right approach, and it’s just taken me a while to realise that what with everything else I just can’t do it successfully. I do feel like a weight has been lifted – I was getting drained with that morning routine, 7.30-10, looking intensely at that day’s racing, doing the write ups etc – compounded by losing and losing, and losing some more. I’d get to 10.30 and my head would have had a work out already, before I then had a 6h window to do what I would recall as ‘proper work’, all the research stuff and everything else that goes with a business, only to then get to 4.30 ish and start on the next day’s post, before calling stumps on the day about 6. It’s just not a practical solution for a one man band, and I think it got to the point of affecting everything else negatively – I mean that post I put up today was my first in I don’t know how long – but too long. This approach should help restore the balance and my mental state – it was getting to the point where I didn’t want to look at a horse race – and when you run a racing blog, that’s not a good place to be!!

      If I can repeat the last two years that would be welcome, and i’ll be trying my best to do so.

      Josh 11/08/19 8:46 PM Reply


      • Yes Josh, I’ve given up trying to get right through the 2yo season, if it isn’t fun and you don’t sit down to look at a race with a bit of excitement then it just becomes a grind.

        Also, I reckon it’s taken me 20 years to be really relaxed about not having a bet.
        Hugh

        alpha2 11/08/19 8:46 PM Reply


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