Members Daily Post: 19/02/19 (upd2)

Section 1 (complete), test zone, Chelt Day 1, important update/decision

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Taunton

4.50 –

All Kings   (all Hc’s, m class) H3 I3 9/2 

Knight of the Realm   (all Hc’s, m class) 14/1 S2 

 

Wetherby

1.55 –

Felix Mendelsshon   (m TJC) 25/1 S2A 

Mac Cennetig   (m class) 20/1 S2A

3.30 – Yorkist   (HcCh) I3 13/2 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

4.00 –

Magic Dragon   (m class)  w1 H3 I3 5/1 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

Wishing Well   (m dist) 22/1 S2A

4.35 – Attention Please   (m’s TJC and class)  w1 H3 G3 10/1 S1 S2

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

 

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -14.4 )Best of Stats (29/153,68p, -1.2) Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 1/9,2p, -1)

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No tips on Tuesday.

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Breaking News…

A note on Section 2 below, in section 4… 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

A Dunn (28/1< guide)

4.50 T – Tactical Manoeuvre 16/1

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.30 W – Baby King 15/2

4.35 W – Minella For Me 4/1

5.05 W – Agent Valdez 7/1

Tom Lacey 

3.10 T – Fair Kate 3/1

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow

3.30 W – Mixboy 15/2

Jockeys/Chasers

4.50 T – Tikkapick 6/1/ Leg lock Luke 12/1

4.35 W – Itsamanslife 8/1

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

4.15 T – Anemoi 6/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Cheltenham Festival 2019 

Big Race Stats/Trends Day 1: READ HERE>>>

The above is clearly a work in progress and follows a similar path to the previous few Festivals which I attack all guns blazing. Hopefully the above is clear enough – the yellow highlight indicates the 13 trends/stats races of choice and those that I attack fully – mainly all the handicaps + those races 3m+ as usual. I will follow the same path as last year with a 25 point bank or so but that’s all for a later date. I hope to complete the above this week, or certainly early next week, but I thought i’d post as each day is finished as I know some of you will like having a flick through. There will be a separate document for any trainer/jockey/track LTO micros etc, and that work is coming together also. They’ll be blog post up at some point this week I hope – How To Find Festival Handicap Hurdle Winners – which should be of some interest.

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The Future of my tipping…

It’s with regret that i’ve concluded, and probably not before time , that my attempts to become a jack of all trades on the daily front has resulted in becoming a master of none. (I can hear Chubnut downing a bottle of the good stuff already, in approval :)) I don’t like being crap at anything I do but my attempts to turn myself into a daily tipster, across varied race type/horse types etc etc has just failed. It wasn’t an element that ever existed on here before, and it’s best I just stop. I’m clearly not very good and that is for a variety of reasons that I don’t need to bore you with, but for the future of this blog and probably my mental well-being, it makes sense to take a step back and stop.

What will I be tipping?

Well as Martin C pointed out a few days back, I used to just focus on 3m+ handicap chases and indeed there wouldn’t be a blog without my initial focus on those in the free posts, before the members’ club existed, which isn’t even 3 years old yet. SO… I intend to go back to that, with a focus on Class 3 and above 3m+ handicap chases – so any daily tips in here, will just focus on those for the time being, but i’ll be more selective. The big class 2/Grade 3 staying chases will still live in the free posts, but they are mainly Saturdays.

Big Race Tips… History would suggest this is the only tipping area I’m any good at and there’s a real danger of these being negatively affected if I carry on the path I’ve tried to sprint down. There’s nothing I enjoy more in this game than attacking a big jumps handicap, especially at Festivals, and our friend Stewart has demonstrated the benefit of such focus. When I’m on my game with those I’m pretty decent.

This decision will free up more time to focus on the business, which includes doing more research content of interest and generally trying to keep on top of everything, and improve it.  I’m still a one man band and I’ve been trying to do too much. I’ve concluded that if i’m not careful everything may become mediocre and i’m in danger of falling out of love with the game. Clearly I don’t want to reach that point!

I’m lucky that there are many of you who are very good tipsters and are willing to share. The tipping comp appears to be unearthing some gems, on top of those who have been doing well for longer.

A reminder that jumps strategies S1 + S3A# pulled in +152 points or so in 2018, and my Big Race Tips (inc free post) another +183. If those three elements can continue to add 200-300+ points a year as a portfolio, I should be happy with that as my profit contribution – while working out how to eek out more systematic profit from the stats etc.

We all know about the exploits of Nick Mazur, and he’s a 10x (100x…) better daily tipster than I’m proving to be -albeit some of his recent picks would indicate he’s caught whatever disease I have!! 🙂 (poke poke…I’m expecting a text in 3,2,1, reminding me of Sykes!) The lucky sod is off on holiday for two weeks this Friday, but thankfully many of you appear to be smashing it, to fill the void. George, Warren, Jim and others have had quite the month so far in the Tipping Comp, as have ‘the Martins’ and others. Tim’s been having a great time since he started posting, his results reflecting his private success, and long may it continue. Stewart has been doing very well, Colin will get back to his best and I know there are others also so don’t be offended if I haven’t mentioned you! 🙂 I don’t think there’s a better collection of recreational racing experts around in truth and some of you put many stand alone tipping services to shame. There simply isn’t any need for me to keep slaving away on the daily front, to the detriment of everything else. I need to get back my focus, start concentrating on where I’ve had success and get stuck into the puzzles I enjoy trying to solve.

So, that’s that. I don’t think this decision is a great loss to the daily content. But with any luck it should improve the overall experience, my happiness, and the long term enjoyment/profits. If you’ve made losses following the ‘best of’ tips (esp if starting at their high point, gulp) or the daily tips, apologies (so have I!) – i’ll get all those points back with interest, in big races.

Onto tomorrow. Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

78 Responses

  1. Looks like youve done a fair bit of soul searching there Josh,
    probably the right decision to concentrate on what ur best at.
    Keep up the good work and remember we all love you here!!

    1. Yep well done David ………. in a nutshell … perfectly put !!
      Nothing should taken on here as guaranteed tips.
      Josh is really just the guiding light with some brilliant inside and statistical knowledge that should be used as a bolt-on weaponry against the odds makers .
      There is so much to running your own website , keeping house and then studying for hours everyday to provide us with as much information as possible …i honestly don’t know how does it int he first place ….. let alone picking holes or finding fault with him ?
      My Idea on betting is to make your OWN choices with as much information as possible to hand …….. You won’t find a better place than here i can assure for the money we pay . Josh is just the most helpful person i have ever come across in my entire time in the quest for winners , he introduced me to system betting (hrb)……….for which i will be eternally thankful.
      Everything in life needs assessing as we go along and is the best thing i have ever learnt … and as i once heard …. “the trouble is you can be ” too ” busy to make money” … how true that is !!
      right back to the winner finding !!
      and Josh keep throwing your knowledge at us ! it’s much appreciated … everyone just needs to learn how to digest it for their good !!
      gl/gb

  2. Hear Hear David, good on you Josh you do a great job running this site and bringing all these brilliant contributors together. Your stats stuff is worth the subs alone, don’t worry about daily tipping 🙂

  3. I take my hat off to those that appear to effectively find value in everything from 5F sprints on fast ground to long distance Hunter Chases in the mud. I can’t do it either Josh cos I’m a one trick pony too. So is no shame in accepting your limitations for what they are and focusing your talents on that which you do best.

  4. Nothing from me. Well I like half the field in that class 2 at Taunton so probably a good reason to leave it alone. Certainly looks to be a decent stepping stone for a number of these running at the festival. (I am sure Josh has some stat about Taunton being a bad prep track no doubt)

    1. I have Nube Negra and Anemoi in my tracker but cannot split them so we will dutch them as actual and not competition tips for 2 points each. Currently 11/2 and 13/2 BOG respectively.

      Josh,
      can you push the Cheltenham ante post blog up to the top once a week please to generate more input from contributors. I need to test some thinking.

    2. same as that Nick i think my shortlist was 8 , if you put a gun to my head i would probably say Encore Champs but not with enough confidence to put any money on.

  5. Hi Josh.

    When you started out with your Best of Stas Tips you said they would be generally 7/1 or under. At one point you even said you were actually enjoying looking at the top end of the market!

    So out of curiosity, more than anything, I had a look at the actual split of tips above and below 7/1. In November you had 3/46 tips over 7/1 which is what you might expect but in December that increased to 25/65. January was 14/33 and Feb to date is 3/5.

    Results based on my own records (and there may be a few differences from yours depending on what odds you used as the advised odds) are as follows:

    7/1 or less
    Nov – 11/43 +6.42pts
    Dec – 12/39 +33.8pts
    Jan – 0/19 -19pts

    Above 7/1
    Nov – 0/3 -3pts
    Dec – 2/25 -5.5pts
    Jan – 0/14 -14pts

    Now it’s only 3 months but it just feels like you were reverting to what you thought you knew best (ie. higher odds tips) when things weren’t going your way.

    Anyway, I hope you find this useful. It’s not meant as a criticism. You’ve been at this game a lot longer than me but maybe some food for thought.

  6. Josh

    I was looking for a reliable tipster to add to my portfolio and stopped beting after 5 consequetive losing months, but have followed, (without betting), you since the end of January and you have still to have found a winner!! so your conclusion seems sensible. It has cost me hard earned real cash so it is difficult to wish you all the best but gambling is a gamble so I accept the hit on the chin and move on. I know you could spin some positive system based response but then make sure you market your service on that basis. I wish you the best Cheltenham which is where we all want to win but I for one will not be following your service.

  7. Looks like youve done a fair bit of soul searching there Josh,
    probably the right decision to concentrate on what ur best at.
    Keep up the good work and remember we all love you here!!

    1. Ha, that’s very kind David, and no doubt you have long term eyes, and have seen some of the highs. But the reality is that recent months have been rather crap, on the tipping front, and I need to do something to arrest the decline/get back to what I know. It’s just professionally painful as given the knowledge I think I have, and the tools at my disposal, I should be good at it long term – but for whatever reason i’m just rubbish at the moment – it could be that I just can’t cope with trying to focus for a few hours a day on daily tipping, + all the other things I have to do re the blog, and I can feel myself just getting more drained/unhappy, and I know that has/could impact the big race stuff – so I’m best drawing stumps for now, and focusing all my analysis efforts on the above. I mean I’ve been even worse on the Flat – but i’ll try something there when the time comes – but less is more, and I need to be more focused.
      thanks for your support,
      Josh

      1. All I know is that i’ve been making money the past year, when struggling before, and have been a member for just over a year.
        This may well be coincidence but I think I must have learnt something whilst trawling through this value site 🙂

    2. Yep well done David ………. in a nutshell … perfectly put !!
      Nothing should taken on here as guaranteed tips.
      Josh is really just the guiding light with some brilliant inside and statistical knowledge that should be used as a bolt-on weaponry against the odds makers .
      There is so much to running your own website , keeping house and then studying for hours everyday to provide us with as much information as possible …i honestly don’t know how does it int he first place ….. let alone picking holes or finding fault with him ?
      My Idea on betting is to make your OWN choices with as much information as possible to hand …….. You won’t find a better place than here i can assure for the money we pay . Josh is just the most helpful person i have ever come across in my entire time in the quest for winners , he introduced me to system betting (hrb)……….for which i will be eternally thankful.
      Everything in life needs assessing as we go along and is the best thing i have ever learnt … and as i once heard …. “the trouble is you can be ” too ” busy to make money” … how true that is !!
      right back to the winner finding !!
      and Josh keep throwing your knowledge at us ! it’s much appreciated … everyone just needs to learn how to digest it for their good !!
      gl/gb

  8. Hear Hear David, good on you Josh you do a great job running this site and bringing all these brilliant contributors together. Your stats stuff is worth the subs alone, don’t worry about daily tipping 🙂

    1. Your cheque is in the post! 🙂 haha. Cheers both. The reality is that recent months haven’t been good enough tipping wise, from me. Thankfully there’s plenty of other great stuff going on, inc stats etc to help in your own endeavours, but I need to get back to some glory days.
      Josh

  9. I take my hat off to those that appear to effectively find value in everything from 5F sprints on fast ground to long distance Hunter Chases in the mud. I can’t do it either Josh cos I’m a one trick pony too. So is no shame in accepting your limitations for what they are and focusing your talents on that which you do best.

    1. Yep, I hate the idea of having limitations as I think I should be good at everything, horse racing wise haha – that’s clearly not possible but I should be doing better on the daily front, but for now, especially over next 2/3 months, i’m best trying to focus on the above and see where that leads. The stats/trends have been working well… Lord Napier, Go Conquer, Robinsfirth were all on trends shortlists of 4/5 etc, so plenty of positives to build on, i just need to allow myself the time/mental energy to use said sats, + my analysis, to get that profit pile moving back up. At least we will always have your expertise! I’m looking forward to the flat with your stuff. Keep up the good work.

  10. today’s selections.
    Wetherby
    1-55. Hartside 12-1 1/2 pt ew
    3-30. Mixboy 7-1 1pt ew
    4-00. Snowed In 16-1 1/4 pt ew

    1. well after saying i wasn’t going to back anything in T4-15 i just couldn’t resist £2 ew on Garo De Juilley @ 25-1 4 places.

  11. I think maybe Josh is being hard on himself. NOBODY is immune to what he has been going through recently, really, NOBODY. His analysis, stats and general approach are spot on its just that sometimes this game f***s with your brain for reasons that are impossible to understand. Nowhere is the phrase ‘its marathon not a sprint’ more appropriate.

    1. i think your spot on, last month i couldn’t pick my nose and thinking back i probably started searching for a “in” instead of relying on methods that had served me well previously. just a few weeks ago i probably would have had a selection for the Taunton 4-15 but it would have been forced but it’s amazing what a couple of winners can do for your mindset and today i’m leaving it well alone as there is so little between many of the runners it would be more of a guess to pick the winner.
      keep up the great work Josh as it was the best thing i have done racing wise to join just over 2 years ago.

    2. cheers- hmmm, well given the last few months of my tipping i’m probably going easy on myself haha. It has been truly woeful and sometimes you have to face up to that. Hopefully getting back to what I enjoy, and focusing on those race types, will improve the situation, as well as my mood, and mental energy to run this place in the way I wish,and improve on it. The big race/free tips etc are on a bad runs post Galway, in part because of win % etc, they are to be expected, and because they are infrequent I suppose, said losing runs will always stretch out over longer, especially the latter half of the year. That’s no good if you started post Galway! And my autumn efforts in big chases were naff. Anyway, those heady big race heights will return but i have to give myself every chance to get there and this is the only option – I can’t pull back on everything else i have to do, so they have to go, for now!
      Josh

  12. Nothing from me. Well I like half the field in that class 2 at Taunton so probably a good reason to leave it alone. Certainly looks to be a decent stepping stone for a number of these running at the festival. (I am sure Josh has some stat about Taunton being a bad prep track no doubt)

    1. I have Nube Negra and Anemoi in my tracker but cannot split them so we will dutch them as actual and not competition tips for 2 points each. Currently 11/2 and 13/2 BOG respectively.

      Josh,
      can you push the Cheltenham ante post blog up to the top once a week please to generate more input from contributors. I need to test some thinking.

    2. same as that Nick i think my shortlist was 8 , if you put a gun to my head i would probably say Encore Champs but not with enough confidence to put any money on.

      1. Yeah although 4-5 years olds with SP of 9/1 or less are 2/8, 4p +7 overall. Aren’t stats fun to manipulate 😉

        I suspect any past stats on where UK runners last ran need to be taken with a pinch of salt this year given the recent cancellations to an extent.

  13. Hi Josh.

    When you started out with your Best of Stas Tips you said they would be generally 7/1 or under. At one point you even said you were actually enjoying looking at the top end of the market!

    So out of curiosity, more than anything, I had a look at the actual split of tips above and below 7/1. In November you had 3/46 tips over 7/1 which is what you might expect but in December that increased to 25/65. January was 14/33 and Feb to date is 3/5.

    Results based on my own records (and there may be a few differences from yours depending on what odds you used as the advised odds) are as follows:

    7/1 or less
    Nov – 11/43 +6.42pts
    Dec – 12/39 +33.8pts
    Jan – 0/19 -19pts

    Above 7/1
    Nov – 0/3 -3pts
    Dec – 2/25 -5.5pts
    Jan – 0/14 -14pts

    Now it’s only 3 months but it just feels like you were reverting to what you thought you knew best (ie. higher odds tips) when things weren’t going your way.

    Anyway, I hope you find this useful. It’s not meant as a criticism. You’ve been at this game a lot longer than me but maybe some food for thought.

    1. Thanks for that Ken – I think that just demonstrates a story of a lack of focus or ability to stick to a tipping/analysis plan – maybe i’ll try again on the flat 🙂 But yep, maybe just focusing on that price range, from the stats, should be the starting point – my fear I think, is that such an approach may negatively affect my ability to analyse big race properly, when it comes to price, and god forbid I end up focusing too much on the top of the market with those- which I did Oct-Dec to my cost. A large chunk of it is the time/mental energy needed to run this place how I want, outside of all the tipping – and you can’t cut corners with tipping, which i’ve been guilty of. The big positive of this place is the community, in part built on how I interact with you all/respond to comments etc – but for example replying etc above, as I wish to do, is now an hour and counting. Yesterday i’ve had started doing this at 10 ish, having spent 2-3 hours putting up some losers with a lengthy write up, i’d be mentally shot already as such work is always intense, esp when on bad losing runs, and then i’d still have my 3x chelt races to research plus the blog post I want to write etc. I think it’s clear that I just can’t do all of that successfully, and something has to give.
      Josh

      1. Sorry to hear you’re feeling that way Josh. Actually, I hadn’t read your comments above before I put up my post (a big fault of mine!!).

        To some extent, I understand your feelings. I was spending 2-3 hours each night on my AW stats and tips and on top of real work it eventually ground me down to the point where I was no longer enjoying it. That has to be the operative word. If you’re not enjoying it, take a break.

        However, since I stopped in Oct, Inform Racing have launched their System Builder and Declarations tool which now allows me to find selections within a few minutes, which, I’m sure, is what HRB and Geegeez already does. I just didn’t have the patience to learn a new system when I’d already invested in Inform.

        The Tipping Comp has given me a bit of impetus and I’m now looking for alternative systems/micros and quite enjoying the challenge.

        It just goes to show that everything in life has its up and downs but hopefully there are more ups than downs. In horse racing, I feel like I’m on the start of an upswing now, so here’s hoping it continues.

  14. Josh

    I was looking for a reliable tipster to add to my portfolio and stopped beting after 5 consequetive losing months, but have followed, (without betting), you since the end of January and you have still to have found a winner!! so your conclusion seems sensible. It has cost me hard earned real cash so it is difficult to wish you all the best but gambling is a gamble so I accept the hit on the chin and move on. I know you could spin some positive system based response but then make sure you market your service on that basis. I wish you the best Cheltenham which is where we all want to win but I for one will not be following your service.

    1. Hi Adrian…
      – it’s always best just to deal in facts, and without doubt my tipping since the end of Galway Festival last year has been truly woeful, and that’s being polite.
      -The daily stuff has been poor hence the decision above, and my inability to find any reliable consistency over a longer period has been painful, especially professionally, as what goes on in my head in relation to this game is quite good but that just hasn’t translated to results. In part I think i’ve been trying to do too much and to run this blog in the way I like to, and the content I like to provide, the community feel, as well as the more general business element, may not be compatible with also spending a few hours each day looking at that day’s racing. The ‘Best of Stats’ at least, since i started them, are only at a small loss but again they hit a high of +40, only to come back down again, as have the daily tips at various points.
      -the big race tips, (Free… staying chasers), Members – other big races/Festivals – have been doing just fine in the longer term and their losing runs will always stretch out over a long period of time – given the success in those, historically, has been in a short enough time frame/in the spring, the latter half of the year can always be more of a struggle, but again I can’t be happy with the lack of consistency there. But, they have always had, and likely to always have, a 9-13% win strike rate – i’m playing on horses 8s, 10s, 12s+, average odds higher, and that means losing runs of 40-66 every now and then. Hopefully by putting more energy and focus into those I will improve. But yep, since their high mid way through last year – the free post have shipped 40 odd, the Big Race in members similar. As stand alone, long term, given the likely losing runs, that is to be expected, but clearly far from ideal. I do take a calendar year look at those, because there will always be profit spikes given the nature of those races, and clearly those who started following them at start of 2018 have a big profit pile – but if you started after Galway, then it’s been horrendous.
      -in part that’s why i’ve always tried to push the portfolio approach. IN truth if members were simply judging me on the tipping alone (and certainly outside of Festivals/nationals), there wouldn’t be a members’ club based on the last 6 months. That is a reality.
      -I could clearly always do more to highlight the right portfolio, and I’ve made mistakes on that, but I can’t bang that drum any louder… S1/S3A# over sticks are a solid staple diet, my big race efforts will be just fine over time, but those losing runs etc are not for everyone, but i’ll try and be more consistent – and I have tried to highlight all those who are clearly better tipsters than I am… if you’re still not aware that Nick M in the last 12+ months has been the most consistent and best daily tipster on these pages, then I don’t know what else to do to shout about him – You’d struggle to find anyone to match his results anywhere in this game of ours. And as alluded to above there are plenty of others doing well also.
      -Anyway, you’re free to judge the content/experience in any way you feel and if you joined on basis of just wanting to follow my own tipping efforts, and have just stuck with those, I can only apologise.
      -i do back all my tips with my own cash and am aware how bad it’s been.
      -You have access through to May time I think, so by all means keep a watching brief, or maybe just follow Nick! 🙂 That should get back all your losses and some by May time –
      -Based on history, if you’re going to follow my tips at any point in a year, it’s at The Festival. But clearly I understand given the direction of travel over recent months, esp having not experienced those highs, why you wouldn’t have any confidence in those.
      And if you’re off, then I wish you well with your future punting, there is a quality service out there for everyone, including some decent daily tipsters 🙂 (albeit none as good as some of those members who post in here) Thanks for giving it a go, which you’ve done.
      Best, Josh

  15. today’s selections.
    Wetherby
    1-55. Hartside 12-1 1/2 pt ew
    3-30. Mixboy 7-1 1pt ew
    4-00. Snowed In 16-1 1/4 pt ew

    1. well after saying i wasn’t going to back anything in T4-15 i just couldn’t resist £2 ew on Garo De Juilley @ 25-1 4 places.

  16. I think maybe Josh is being hard on himself. NOBODY is immune to what he has been going through recently, really, NOBODY. His analysis, stats and general approach are spot on its just that sometimes this game f***s with your brain for reasons that are impossible to understand. Nowhere is the phrase ‘its marathon not a sprint’ more appropriate.

    1. i think your spot on, last month i couldn’t pick my nose and thinking back i probably started searching for a “in” instead of relying on methods that had served me well previously. just a few weeks ago i probably would have had a selection for the Taunton 4-15 but it would have been forced but it’s amazing what a couple of winners can do for your mindset and today i’m leaving it well alone as there is so little between many of the runners it would be more of a guess to pick the winner.
      keep up the great work Josh as it was the best thing i have done racing wise to join just over 2 years ago.

      1. Hi Martin, iv’e only been here a couple of months and but agree totally this is the best site I have been on without question,
        Brian Wright

        1. oh you’re both too kind – yep Martin, well those who joined 2 years ago, or start of 2018, or mid 2017, have clearly seen the bigger picture, and there’s a very large chunk from those days who joined then and have yet to leave- but recent months have been poor – plenty of this game is in the head, and I need to give myself a chance to return to my best, tipping wise.

          Thanks Brian, that’s another cheque in the post… that means a lot from someone who’s not been here long, in what has probably been the most turgid time in general, (esp my tipping), since I started the club. So, the fact you can see the positives/have enjoyed it so far, is welcome.
          Josh

    2. cheers- hmmm, well given the last few months of my tipping i’m probably going easy on myself haha. It has been truly woeful and sometimes you have to face up to that. Hopefully getting back to what I enjoy, and focusing on those race types, will improve the situation, as well as my mood, and mental energy to run this place in the way I wish,and improve on it. The big race/free tips etc are on a bad runs post Galway, in part because of win % etc, they are to be expected, and because they are infrequent I suppose, said losing runs will always stretch out over longer, especially the latter half of the year. That’s no good if you started post Galway! And my autumn efforts in big chases were naff. Anyway, those heady big race heights will return but i have to give myself every chance to get there and this is the only option – I can’t pull back on everything else i have to do, so they have to go, for now!
      Josh

  17. HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT +2.94

    No bets today

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT +25.9

    1pt win – 4.50 Taunton – Danboru

    There may be another later if I remember to check!

      1. Hi Francis, i’ve just dived into your account and changed your ‘display’ name, so that your next comment should come up as Francis with any luck!

        1. Thank you Josh.

          Well that was annoying, the other one has just won at 16.7 on betfair. The cut-off price I try to use is 16 and so I guess I was write to exclude but still irritating.

  18. COLINS BETS

    6.30 Wolverhampton Something Lucky BOG 10/3

    ELITE BETS

    5.30 Wolverhampton Singing The Blues BOG 7/2
    Colin

  19. Calling George B, have you noticed Mr Ivory has Tangramm in the 19.30 at Wolverhampton tonight, with Dyer up? Sporting Life comments hint it was given a soft ride LTO 🙂

    Others of interest: Diamond Reflection in the 19.00 ( 50%win/50% place last five years, and Aguerroo in the 18.00, just have a sneaky feeling on this one good luck!

    1. HI Mark ,
      Nothing has come up on any systems today for aw .
      dwyer/ivory does show overall profit .. but not at wolverhampton yet ?? but now you mentioned i will have a pound e/w for interest 🙂
      i shall take a look at your others now .. .. percentages looking good ?

      gl/gb 🙂

  20. I happened on this site about four years back.I was a butterfly back then,flitting from one system to another.The big lesson I learned from Josh is VALUE.I had before that backed shortish prices with varying degrees of success.The stats were fairly basic back then but there is more flesh on the bones now and produce a steady flow of big priced winners in the 10-16+ range.My attempts in the tipping competition are pretty abysmal,i think i got post equine flu virus,but it shows how hard it is to find something worth backing everyday.Maybe I am being judgemental on Josh’s tipping performance,but perhaps its a case of less is more,just put up the stats and let us make the judgements and Josh can concentrate on whats his forte is,big prices in decent chases,and if there is no value to be had,let it pass

  21. HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT +2.94

    No bets today

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT +25.9

    1pt win – 4.50 Taunton – Danboru

    There may be another later if I remember to check!

      1. Hi Francis, i’ve just dived into your account and changed your ‘display’ name, so that your next comment should come up as Francis with any luck!

        1. Thank you Josh.

          Well that was annoying, the other one has just won at 16.7 on betfair. The cut-off price I try to use is 16 and so I guess I was write to exclude but still irritating.

  22. Josh I think you’ve been brave to realise when something isn’t working and deciding to stop now is a sound decision. There is a lot to confidence, or lack of it, affecting how you approach looking at a race and making a selection and I for one wouldn’t want to see a lack of confidence spread to affect how you go about your big race and festival approach which you know has been your most successful betting . Sticking to what you do best is often a sensible maxim in this game and not trying to be the master of all

    1. very true – I fear that if I keep up this turgid downward spiral on the daily stuff that my head will not be in a good place on Day 1 Festival through to end of Galway – and, if last year is anything to go by, that’s the main window for my big race efforts. I need to get back enjoying the game, which I’m not sure I have fully. I suppose that was always a risk when your hobby becomes a business but in reality i’m not sure I need to tip daily at the moment, esp given how good many others are, and i’m adding to my workload, when no need to, with the danger those efforts make everything else naff.
      Confidence is a strange thing, when you’re hot you just can’t stop finding winners, and with any luck that will be the case in a few weeks time , if not before 🙂

      1. When you’re hot, you’re so HOT! 🙂 ….. but when you’re not, you’re not! 🙁

        Only people that this don’t apply to are people that don’t bet. Anyone that tells you different is full of BS. Is nothing you can do about it. It’s just an inherent property of participating in fortuitous uncertainty.

      2. know exactly how you feel Josh.
        Your site to me is the best thing horse racing wise there is out there, have a break, re-focus and you have 21 days to the biggest event of the year.
        Good luck!

        1. Cheers Paul. I have just flicked through the last couple of years Festival weeks – would appear I used to be quite good haha. I will do well to match those, but i’ll be giving it my best. All is well with the world when festival week goes well!

  23. Not the best day for novice races…..

    Taun’ 3.10 Timassini…………. 20.0 1pt TO PLACE ONLY (BFSP)
    There’s a reason for this and that is that when I saw it at first I was excited because it has decent sire stat’s and the trainer is 47% win in novice races over this distance on right handed tracks with fields of =< 10 runners. When I saw the price I realised I needed to dig further and found that Conor Ring, despite getting most all his rides off Evan Williams, is only 1 from 53 in similar fields, which suggests he is jocked off when it comes to the big gigs, but interestingly is 10 from 53 for places. (18.8)%. So given it is currently 180.0 for the win on B/f I&#039m expecting some big place odds to go with it.

    Weth&#039 5.05 West coast Glory…. 13.0 (Win as usual).

    Back at 4.30 with the Wolves update.

  24. Keep advising Josh.
    I have learned more about our sport from guidance received by your stats/systems, members input and by taking up points from other sources recommended on here.They do provide a way into a particular race and by analysing varying bits of information it makes choosing a selection more enjoyable -especially when it wins.

    1. Oh I will. Good to hear, that’s what it’s about – if you want to learn/improve/think etc, hopefully there’s enough going on here to do that – I do think that’s what drives engagement in the sport generally, and on here – following others tips and strategies is obviously fine, but I do think it’s important to leave space to throw in your own analysis and try and solve the puzzle yourself occasionally – as it does make it more enjoyable and they are always the best winners, emotionally, I think.

  25. COLINS BETS

    6.30 Wolverhampton Something Lucky BOG 10/3

    ELITE BETS

    5.30 Wolverhampton Singing The Blues BOG 7/2
    Colin

  26. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    T 3.45 – Quizmaster on 4th run @ 5
    W 4.00 – Avondhu Pearl on 4th run @ 33
    AW
    6.30 – Primos Comet on 5th run @ 7/2
    Festival
    T 4.15 – Flying Tiger on 6th run @ 9
    …………Smaoineamh Alainn on 5th run @ 14
    GL

  27. Calling George B, have you noticed Mr Ivory has Tangramm in the 19.30 at Wolverhampton tonight, with Dyer up? Sporting Life comments hint it was given a soft ride LTO 🙂

    Others of interest: Diamond Reflection in the 19.00 ( 50%win/50% place last five years, and Aguerroo in the 18.00, just have a sneaky feeling on this one good luck!

    1. HI Mark ,
      Nothing has come up on any systems today for aw .
      dwyer/ivory does show overall profit .. but not at wolverhampton yet ?? but now you mentioned i will have a pound e/w for interest 🙂
      i shall take a look at your others now .. .. percentages looking good ?

      gl/gb 🙂

    2. gb reporting in live :
      mr mc
      My only findings on the AW tonight :
      8.30 Wolverhampton 5 HONEY BEAR (IRE)
      jockey / trainer and track all good for first career runs including 3yo’s
      worth a dabble for my money (just about e/w )

      gl/gb 🙂

  28. I happened on this site about four years back.I was a butterfly back then,flitting from one system to another.The big lesson I learned from Josh is VALUE.I had before that backed shortish prices with varying degrees of success.The stats were fairly basic back then but there is more flesh on the bones now and produce a steady flow of big priced winners in the 10-16+ range.My attempts in the tipping competition are pretty abysmal,i think i got post equine flu virus,but it shows how hard it is to find something worth backing everyday.Maybe I am being judgemental on Josh’s tipping performance,but perhaps its a case of less is more,just put up the stats and let us make the judgements and Josh can concentrate on whats his forte is,big prices in decent chases,and if there is no value to be had,let it pass

    1. Thanks Gerry, very wise words as always. I’ll go back to what i’ve been good at before, but can still improve on, and we will see how it goes. The next couple of months are always exiting if you enjoy attacking a big handicap! Game on.

  29. Not the best day for novice races…..

    Taun’ 3.10 Timassini…………. 20.0 1pt TO PLACE ONLY (BFSP)
    There’s a reason for this and that is that when I saw it at first I was excited because it has decent sire stat’s and the trainer is 47% win in novice races over this distance on right handed tracks with fields of =< 10 runners. When I saw the price I realised I needed to dig further and found that Conor Ring, despite getting most all his rides off Evan Williams, is only 1 from 53 in similar fields, which suggests he is jocked off when it comes to the big gigs, but interestingly is 10 from 53 for places. (18.8)%. So given it is currently 180.0 for the win on B/f I'm expecting some big place odds to go with it.

    Weth' 5.05 West coast Glory…. 13.0 (Win as usual).

    Back at 4.30 with the Wolves update.

  30. Hi Josh
    I have been on this site for about 12 months after taking advantage of your trial offer. I am not new to punting having been betting for almost 50 years and with everyone else I’m still learning something new. I learned the hard way early on the need to specialise in what I was good at solving and that was high class handicaps. If and when from time to time when I ventured into class 4,5 and 6 handicaps I failed miserably. What I thought were unexposed horses doing something different were in fact just poor quality horses with no chance of winning. I find I’m much better assessing proven or progressive form. I think you like me have learned the hard way that we need to specialise in what we are good at. In the world of athletics Mo Farah and Usain Bolt were the best in the business. What do you think would have happened if Mo Farah decided to be a sprinter and Usain Bolt a distance runner would their careers have taken off ? Of course not. We all need to stick with what we are good at. Don’t beat yourself up about it. The stats and trends you produce are excellent and your analysis from scratch of staying handicap chases is second to none. Keep up the good work.

    1. Thanks John… some very valid points in there and I think you’ve hit that ‘doing something different’ nail on the head, especially over jumps and esp C4/C5. Many of them are just poor animals! Hoping to turn base metal into gold, when in reality they are just base metal.
      I know what i’ve been good at and i’ll get back there, and it would be a good time to return to those heights in the coming weeks!

  31. Jamie Osborn lambourn trainers just picked up his video and he fancies Monumental Man was 16/1 down to 12/1 more 11/1 in the 6.00 Wolverhampton.
    Video worth a listen for not a happy man over £2,900 to the winner.
    Colin.

  32. Takes a brave man to put it all out there day after day Josh.
    Especially when times are tough and money is involved.
    You’ve taken us all on an amazing journey over the last 3 years.
    I’ve been a member from the start even recall your polite email regarding the prospect of charging for the service.. gulp
    I don’t get involved at all in flat racing but love your insight when the NH starts to boil over especially around festival season, therefore I’m happy to continue paying my dues month after month specifically for Cheltenham, Aintree, Ayr and Punchestown.
    The insight to these events are worthy alone…
    Do what you need too keep yourself sane… but keep the faith ☘️

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