Members Daily Post: 18/02/19 (complete)

All Tips x3 + write ups, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Carlisle

2.30 –

Petite Ganache   (micro’s class and age)  w1 H1 10/3 Up

Wig Wam Wiggle   (HcH)  w1 H3 5/1 3rd

3.00 –

Never Up   (HcCh) 14,30 G1 9/1 S1 UP

Absolutely Dylan   (HcCh, m’s TJC and -class) 14,30  w2 H3 I1 G3 5/2 UP

3.35 – Informateur   (m TJC) 14,30 I1 13/2 UP

4.05 – Blakemount   (HcCh, m TJC) 14,30 G1 8/1 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) UP

4.40 – Ex S’Elance   (HcH) 12/1 S2

 

Lingfield

None

 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -14.4 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 1/9,2p, -1)

Daily Tips

3.50 Ling – Bob Ford1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/153,68p, -1.2, 1 point win)

#1 3.50 Ling – Frankly Speaking – 16/1 (bet365/BV/UniB) 14/1 (gen) UP, poor, albeit nowhere near winner and i’m not sure I ever would be, so didn’t matter but still disappointing.

#2 4.05 Carl- Minella Daddy – 13/2 (gen) UP.

 

09.22, that ALL for today… 

3.50 –

Bob Ford – A muddy slog over 3m4f is my favourite race to attack I suppose and it felt open enough. This one is clearly a punt, especially given his age, but he ran his best race for some time LTO, over a trip too short, but ran through the line well. When on a going day, he has the ability to hack up here, and is handicapped to do so if he so chooses. He also likes to race on the pace and shouldn’t be that far away from the action. Conditions are ideal for him here and while I’ll no doubt curse myself for going for an unexposed one, i’ve gone through this race in detail and at a double figure price I couldn’t resist. At least he’s one of the few who arrives fit and in form. He lost his way a bit for Newland last season but it was only 6 starts ago that he’d have placed at worse in the Chepstow Welsh Nat trial had he not taken a tumble, given how he was travelling. He ran ok at Market Rasen but prefers going LH and he lost a few lengths at each fence there, but was still in there pitching turning for home. He runs as if he’s still got the ability for a race like this. I just hope he runs his race, as he jumps well, stays, and has a touch of class even if slightly on the downgrade – he won’t be far away if he does. Ralph and Newland have a close relationship (former may have been the good Drs assistant, and i’m not sure if they use the same gallops etc….) and this one seems to enjoy being switched between the yards. He’s clearly a thinker but did look overpriced.

Frankly Speaking – well given I have an exposed 12 year old onside I thought it best to have a more lightly raced/unexposed one to go to war with. He did look overpriced and worth a stab even though he’s yet to place/win a chase, or win any race for that matter. He hits the Poste micro below and he’s in Adam’s notebook, as a dour staying chaser in the making – (as was Robinsfirth). His hurdles form was decent enough, especially that Warwick 2nd where he split much higher rated rivals and was a bit inexperienced in the closing stages. The Wetherby chase run was decent and he does run as if he will relish this trip/ground. Whether this comes a tad too soon in his chasing journey we shall see, but if he runs his race he will be staying on all the way to the line. He was outclassed LTO I think in a much deeper race, and on ground that was too quick. He just couldn’t keep up but at least he completed and it was still a run of minor promise, especially in a race like this. Clearly he has a few questions to answer but at 16s/14s he looked worth a go.

the dangers… well my shortlist also included Royal Tara (but short enough given ground/trip questions,but lightly raced for age and will give it a good go), Court Frontier (can be held up, and his level of winning form questionable, and doesn’t arrive in the best of form..he does stay though, didn’t think overpriced), Kilcullen Flem (thorough stayer but some niggles esp recent runs but maybe he needed both. Punchy run was very good, he is the bigger priced one i fear i’ve got wrong, but he is just a slow boat I think, and his winning form needs improving on to take this) and…. Greyed A… I can see the case for him but in the end didn’t think he was overpriced – we all know I struggle around the 15/2, 8/1 price point in races like this/with this many runners, and he may be another i’ve got wrong. But i’ve watched back his recent runs and I don’t like the way he jumps. I also think this track could be too sharp and the level of form achieved to date isn’t that great. I don’t think he’ll get an easy lead either. All of those concerns are in the context of his price. He does look a dour plodder but one that is pace-less.

*

Minella Daddy –  I couldn’t leave him at 13/2 given they remove all headgear for the first time in years, and that can work as well as putting it on. It clearly needs to work given his form this season but if it does I think he destroys these from the front. I found it interesting that Sean heads up here for his only ride – he could have ridden their one in the race above you’d have thought. Peter Bowen does well with his raiders up here and if he’s on a going day, I thought he may get an easy lead, or certainly be front rank. I will know my fate within a few fences, and weather the removal of headgear has sparked him up. He drops back down in class and will enjoy this track I think. His mark has fallen and with only 10 handicap chase runs he’s not yet exposed as such, albeit clearly not thoroughly unexposed. Nothing in here has his level of chase form, when on song, as yet. I thought Arthur’s Gift WON was the main danger and would take the spoils if mine doesn’t run his race. Dicky’s mount didn’t look overpriced for one that is 0/2 over fences but is clearly unexposed and his hurdles form was decent enough. He has chase wins in him. I couldn’t have the rest in here for one reason or another and it looked to be between the three of them.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Tom Lacey 

4.05 C – Coningsby 12/1

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

2.45 L – Foxy Las 40/1

NHF Heavy Ground Trainers

1.45 L – Glengar 33/1 / Richie Valentine 33/1 (if Heavy)

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow

3.35 C – Taxmeifyoucan (11/1< guide) 9/1

4.40 C – Goldencard (11/1< guide) 22/1

5.10 C – Sidi Ismael (11/1< guide) 6/1

4.05 C – Coningsby 12/1

4.40 C – Dorking Cock 4/5

Jockeys/Chasers

4.05 C – Minella Daddy 13/2

3.50 L  – Frankly Speaking (25/1<) 22/1

4.05 C – Coningsby (16/1<) 12/1

LTO winning hurdlers

4.40 C – Dorking Cock 4/5

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book

2.00 C – Pleney 50/1 / The Big Galloper 10/1

2.30 C – Wig Wam Wiggle 5/1

3.00 C – Knocknamona 12/1

4.05 C – Arthurs Gift 4/1

3.50 L – Frankly Speaking 22/1

4.25 L – Sea Story  11/2

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

57 Responses

  1. Struggling to pick winners at the mo but well used to that this time of year. Truth is if I had anything else to do I would hibernate betting until the start of the flat. I know Cheltenham is coming up but lets face it, its the most competitive racing there is and not a place for serious betting. The All Weather keeps my eye in but I find that once we drop into class 4 and certainly lower, the waters get murkier and its no more than Dog racing.

    That said, I do think there’s a bias at Newcastle for Stall 1 front runners, whether those dopey Jocks know that is another problem when the whole World sees high numbers with an advantage. So two front runners both from trap 1, hopefully ridden by smart Jocks. Mullen is master from the front and Hart is not going to be the big prices of before next year.

    Each way double for me here but more a point of noticing the draw and learning as its still early days there. Looking into Hosses running at Newcastle then going south as it seems an easy way of getting a few pounds off for the locals.

    7 pm Equiano Springs
    8pm Avenue of Stars

  2. Actual not competition bets:

    2.00 Car, Lily’s Gem, 1 point each way at 10/1. The trainer has course form. The horse had had a run after a lengthy absence and has won well before that.

    4.05 Car, Cultrum Abbey, 1 point each way at 12/1. The old boy has top weight but does know how to win a chase. Pulled up LTO but that was sensible as he was out of it at the time.

    System selections:

    Karl Burke all weather – 7.30 NC, Harperelle.

    Tim Vaughan in the North – 2.00 Car, Pleney; 2.30 Car, Champagne Chaser; 4.05 Car, Len Brennan.

    Good luck.

  3. HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT +2.94

    No bets today

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    Disappointing day – two well backed losers. I was quite sweet on Maroc given how well he was backed last time and the fact his flat exploits suggested he could have a stone plus in hand of his mark but not quite to be. Great should from Martin W who nabbed the winner in that one.

    RT +25.9

    No bets today

  4. Very First Time Carlisle 16:05 1pt e/w 14/1
    Mcgowans Pass Carlisle 15:35 1pt e/w 16/1
    Greyed A Lingfield 15:50 1pt e/w 15/2
    Breathoffreshair Newcastle 20:00 1pt e/w 12/1

  5. Struggling to pick winners at the mo but well used to that this time of year. Truth is if I had anything else to do I would hibernate betting until the start of the flat. I know Cheltenham is coming up but lets face it, its the most competitive racing there is and not a place for serious betting. The All Weather keeps my eye in but I find that once we drop into class 4 and certainly lower, the waters get murkier and its no more than Dog racing.

    That said, I do think there’s a bias at Newcastle for Stall 1 front runners, whether those dopey Jocks know that is another problem when the whole World sees high numbers with an advantage. So two front runners both from trap 1, hopefully ridden by smart Jocks. Mullen is master from the front and Hart is not going to be the big prices of before next year.

    Each way double for me here but more a point of noticing the draw and learning as its still early days there. Looking into Hosses running at Newcastle then going south as it seems an easy way of getting a few pounds off for the locals.

    7 pm Equiano Springs
    8pm Avenue of Stars

    1. Chubster, by total coincidence these are my two main bets for tomorrow. Equiano boasts a trainer/jockey percentage of 31% win 54% place at the track over five years, while AOS is 42% win 57% place. Be lucky 🙂

    2. When you say Cheltenham is not for serious betting, do you mean because of its competitiveness? The numbers of unexposed horses? Or something else? What I do like from a punting angle at the festival is the unexposed horses going off at nice prices that you can get on up to and incluidng the morning of the race. I also like that the few bookmakers I can still bet with let me have a go Cheltenham week. The worse things are the lousy SP’s and the on course bookmakers who are thieves. Oh and the difficulty getting on to the internet on course. I tend to load up on the morning of the races. You can make some good money that week.
      Tuesday and Thursday are the best days and Wednesday the hardest.

      Good luck.

      1. Completely understand Martin. I will throw a never to be seen again 200/400 sobs at Cheltenham, also Aintree, Goodwood and Ascot. Win or lose I dont list it as anything other than a bit of fun. Rarely do I do it now but going live racing is the same, nothing to do with the serious everyday bets that get logged on a daily basis. Thank God (smiley)

        1. I would say it should be embraced as a betting proposition. There are often great antepost opportunities which shrewder punters than me can take advantage of. It is a rare occasion where you know the majority of horses are trying. There are certain profiles that are continually underestimated. One thing I have noticed though is Festival betting is a specialism in itself, I think it’s important to focus our betting on those that don’t just have a good record overall but have a good track record at Cheltenham …… no pressure Josh.

          1. ha, well I do quite enjoy the pressure but wouldn’t mind finding a few confidence boosting winners before then. I don’t want to be going into that week with the fear that it will make or break my jumps season, but it’s heading that way 🙂 Beating last year will be tough but i’ll try my best, albeit matching it wouldn’t be too bad!

  6. Actual not competition bets:

    2.00 Car, Lily’s Gem, 1 point each way at 10/1. The trainer has course form. The horse had had a run after a lengthy absence and has won well before that.

    4.05 Car, Cultrum Abbey, 1 point each way at 12/1. The old boy has top weight but does know how to win a chase. Pulled up LTO but that was sensible as he was out of it at the time.

    System selections:

    Karl Burke all weather – 7.30 NC, Harperelle.

    Tim Vaughan in the North – 2.00 Car, Pleney; 2.30 Car, Champagne Chaser; 4.05 Car, Len Brennan.

    Good luck.

  7. HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT +2.94

    No bets today

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    Disappointing day – two well backed losers. I was quite sweet on Maroc given how well he was backed last time and the fact his flat exploits suggested he could have a stone plus in hand of his mark but not quite to be. Great should from Martin W who nabbed the winner in that one.

    RT +25.9

    No bets today

  8. Very First Time Carlisle 16:05 1pt e/w 14/1
    Mcgowans Pass Carlisle 15:35 1pt e/w 16/1
    Greyed A Lingfield 15:50 1pt e/w 15/2
    Breathoffreshair Newcastle 20:00 1pt e/w 12/1

  9. today’s selections.
    Lingfield 3-50. Big Meadow 14-1
    Carlisle 3-00. Knocknamona 12-1
    Carlisle 3-35. Sakhee’s City 14-1

  10. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 4.05 – Morning Royalty on 3rd run @ 50
    3m+
    L 2.45 – Snowball on 3rd run @ 9
    L 3.50 – Ballymalin on 3rd run @ 8
    ………..Big Meadow on 7th run @ 14
    GL

  11. any thoughts on the Lingfield 2-45 please as i have quite a hefty risk free bet on B365 and just can’t get my head around this one.

  12. COLINS BETS

    8.00 Newcastle Gowanbuster BOG 4/1

    ELITE BETS
    Carlisle
    3.00 Ryalex BOG 17/2
    Newcasle
    5.00 Nevada BOG 6/1
    5.00 Camile BOG 7/2
    Colin

  13. my only interesting one for the day (not on any system tho ) ( not much showing up on my systems today at all ?? ) ( february has always been a bad month betting wise for me some reason ?)

    5.00 Newcastle 2 BELABOUR

    back to winning distance / class / track e/w 12/1 rude not to especially on my beloved betfair markets 🙂
    gl/gb
    p.s. hoping mc can put me on the right tracks today on the aw 😉

  14. Ramblings of a semi drunk (hungover), old fool yesterday never do anyone any good, apologies! Nick, Josh and everyone else on here are brilliant and as I have said before, they have all helped me through some dark moments of my betting! I do feel the spotlight always goes too much on the negativity rather than the positive side, but, isn`t that life in general and the way the press work. Must have been half the news story when racing was cancelled with equine flu, soon as it was back on….not a great deal, just, “Oh and now onto something positive, the racing is back on…and Auntie Doris` cat has been rescued out of a tree!!”.

  15. Good result on Saturday with Sykes at 11’s takes me well into positive territory.
    Today 3pm Carlisle 1pt e/w Never Up 11/1 Bfs
    Hugh

  16. Earth to George B….like your Newcastle selection but a very competitive race. The trainer likes the chances of Ripley in that race, if she settles ( more chance of doing so over a longer trip?). So will back both 🙂

    Others to consider today based on my beloved trainer/jockey stats: 19.00, Equiano Springs, 20.00 Avenue of Stars. Karen Gorman has an interesting runner in the 18.00, Mighty Mac, trying a new trip, back from long break, first run for stable?? First time headgear, could be a sighter but at 20/1 will pay to find out. Trainer/jockey 37% win 37% place at track last five years 🙂

    Have a great day

    1. Gormley is 5 from 10, 8 places when riding one of McLintock’s for the first time… she’s also 1 from 4 with new recruits… hence my pick above 🙂

    2. thanks for Ripley mark .. got my money back e/w 7.90 a place on bfsp 🙂
      hey hum on we go 🙂
      gl/gb

  17. today’s selections.
    Lingfield 3-50. Big Meadow 14-1
    Carlisle 3-00. Knocknamona 12-1
    Carlisle 3-35. Sakhee’s City 14-1

  18. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 4.05 – Morning Royalty on 3rd run @ 50
    3m+
    L 2.45 – Snowball on 3rd run @ 9
    L 3.50 – Ballymalin on 3rd run @ 8
    ………..Big Meadow on 7th run @ 14
    GL

  19. any thoughts on the Lingfield 2-45 please as i have quite a hefty risk free bet on B365 and just can’t get my head around this one.

  20. COLINS BETS

    8.00 Newcastle Gowanbuster BOG 4/1

    ELITE BETS
    Carlisle
    3.00 Ryalex BOG 17/2
    Newcasle
    5.00 Nevada BOG 6/1
    5.00 Camile BOG 7/2
    Colin

  21. my only interesting one for the day (not on any system tho ) ( not much showing up on my systems today at all ?? ) ( february has always been a bad month betting wise for me some reason ?)

    5.00 Newcastle 2 BELABOUR

    back to winning distance / class / track e/w 12/1 rude not to especially on my beloved betfair markets 🙂
    gl/gb
    p.s. hoping mc can put me on the right tracks today on the aw 😉

    1. George
      you say February is always a bad month for you, well i for one cannot wait to see a good month from your systems, not recorded all your bets this month would imagine very large points profit so far.
      Cheers
      Colin

      1. hi colin,
        trust you are well and still running up them steps to “eye of the tiger” on your sony walkman ? 🙂 (or portable 8-track ..lol 🙂 )
        yes this years February does appear to be on a most needed buck up of trends for me 🙂
        my hrb is showing over he last 30 days :
        ( i wish hrb would give u calendar months 🙁 )
        Bets = 273 Wins = 62 Win% = 22.71 % P/L (SP) = £ 129.73 BFSP P/L = £ 207.14
        with 45.29 % of Horses being placed 🙂
        n.b. i have had some lucky high bfsp’s so the figures are probaby not that great ?
        but definitely my best February since my records began 🙂

        gl/gb 🙂

  22. Ramblings of a semi drunk (hungover), old fool yesterday never do anyone any good, apologies! Nick, Josh and everyone else on here are brilliant and as I have said before, they have all helped me through some dark moments of my betting! I do feel the spotlight always goes too much on the negativity rather than the positive side, but, isn`t that life in general and the way the press work. Must have been half the news story when racing was cancelled with equine flu, soon as it was back on….not a great deal, just, “Oh and now onto something positive, the racing is back on…and Auntie Doris` cat has been rescued out of a tree!!”.

    1. I didn’t read that comment as a negative!? 🙂 I could do with some focus outside of big races, and need to work on that still. I’m probably trying to become a jack of all trades, and thus a master of none. And im working at having a more positive mindset!

  23. Good result on Saturday with Sykes at 11’s takes me well into positive territory.
    Today 3pm Carlisle 1pt e/w Never Up 11/1 Bfs
    Hugh

  24. Earth to George B….like your Newcastle selection but a very competitive race. The trainer likes the chances of Ripley in that race, if she settles ( more chance of doing so over a longer trip?). So will back both 🙂

    Others to consider today based on my beloved trainer/jockey stats: 19.00, Equiano Springs, 20.00 Avenue of Stars. Karen Gorman has an interesting runner in the 18.00, Mighty Mac, trying a new trip, back from long break, first run for stable?? First time headgear, could be a sighter but at 20/1 will pay to find out. Trainer/jockey 37% win 37% place at track last five years 🙂

    Have a great day

    1. reading you loud n clear mc …….. nothing on our joint aw system today .. that’s how bad things are today ..lol 🙂
      will now look at your pointers to save the day ! 🙂 i am sure mine will follow yours in for the forecast 🙂
      rain here in South Hampshire so i reckon lingfield will be like a quagmire before too long.
      gl/gb 🙂

    2. yep all notes absorbed thanks Mark C.
      mighty mac are the kinda odds i like (jockeys claim will be a big help here from top weight )
      equiano springs trainer does well at Newcastle

      so from 5 o’clock it’s looking like we will have some interests evey hour on the hour 🙂
      gl/gb 🙂

    3. mighty mac ………..interesting that karen mclintock has recently (months) tried first time headgear and both winners were at Newcastle ??? may have another £ 1.00 e/w on that basis

      gl/gb 🙂

    4. Gormley is 5 from 10, 8 places when riding one of McLintock’s for the first time… she’s also 1 from 4 with new recruits… hence my pick above 🙂

  25. Poor day for novices but managed to salvage a possibility in the 5.10

    5.10 Carl’ Young Bull……. 7.0

    Is taking a 7lb penalty for Harry Bannister’s winning ride at Chepstow. However, today it’s Fergus Gregory up with a 5lb claim making him only 2lb higher for his win. Gregory has an excellent strike rate of 6/19 in NHF events along with good sire stats for today’s race conditions, there’s a fair chance we could see more improvement, although it does look a fairly competitive race.

    Tim Hanson 1 min ago Reply

      1. Harry Whittington’s win at Lingfield (NHF race), has just wiped a point off of Young Bull’s price at Carlisle. Into 6.2 from 7.2. Unlikely we will make the minimum price now I’m thinking. The sheep are p1ss1ng me off right now. Hope it loses! (if it don’t make the odds).

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