Members Daily Post: 17/02/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Huntingdon

2.30 –

Stormingin   (HcH, micro’s dist and age) 9/1 UP

Veiled Secret   (all Hc’s, m class) 10/1 S2 UP

3.05 – Pottereaghexpress   (all Hc’s,HcH, m’s class and +class)  ES+ I3 13/2 S3A UP

4.10 – Cyclop   (all Hc’s, m class) G3 12/1 S1 S2 

 

Market Rasen

2.45 – So Lonely   (all Hc’s, m’s class and Hcdeb)  ES+ G3 2/1 S3A

3.15 –

Valence D’Aumont   (m TJC) 30 22/1 S2A UP

Ballon Onabudget   (all Hc’s)  30 w2 15/2 UP

Jimmy Rabitte   (all Hc’s)  w1  w2  ES+ H3 I3 13/2 S3A# UP

 

THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much morecan be found HERE>>>

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -13.4 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 1/9,2p, -1)

 

Daily Tips

3.05 Hunt –

Born To Please – 1 point win–  13/2 / 7s UP, 8s, awful.

Tim Rocco – 1 point win – 9/1 (Sky/Unib/BF) 8/1 (gen) UP 5/1. Well that was just a bitterly disappointing race on all fronts.

That’s all the tips for today, 08.59.

Well I may get what I deserve for taking Nick on here (on his Birthday as well, 25, AGAIN! :), many happy returns )  but to my eyes at least these two look the most interesting in here and unlike most at least arrive in some sort of form, having been running-on in their most recent races and finishing in the places.

Born To Please… she’s interesting for her in-form trainer who does like a handicap hurdle winner – 3/17,6p in the last two years. All his handicap hurdlers sent off 8s< are 7/37,15p, 3/7 since the start of 2017. He’s 2/3 with those making handicap hurdle debut. She ran her best hurdles race LTO, staying on from a mile back under hands and heels and pinging the flights up the straight. It’s hard to know what that form is worth as the 1/2 fav under-performed that day and the leader made all, but she did still do best of the rest. She’s a winner on the flat over trips which suggest that stamina won’t be a problem here today and in the context of this awful awful race, that proven ability to win is worth plenty. If she gets round here, i’ll be surprised if she’s not in the mix, and I thought she could be a few points too big here.

Tim Rocco… well he’s arguably even more interesting and given the odds clearly I hope that when these two finish 1-2, he’s the winner 🙂 There are some solid trainer stats as a basis here… again, he’s a trainer in form. Actually I think Usher/Greenhall are the only real in-form trainers in the race, which is always a positive. 2/12,5p the last 30 days, 1/5 the last 14 (Nick’s Ayr winner, who actually finished 3L ahead of his stablemate here at Bangor). He’s 3/5 here in the last year with all runners, 2/3 in handicap hurdles. He’s also booked a jockey who rides the track very well. Brennan is 0/6,3p for the yard, those placed efforts giving hope – in the last 2 years he’s 4/17,6p in handicap hurdles here, 3/7,4p over this distance – he can clearly judge the pace well here, and it’s generally a fair track, where you can win from anywhere albeit it does tend to favour more patiently ridden horses. Greenhall is also 4/23,8p + 13 with his horses having their second start in a handicap. The horse.. well he’s a multiple German flat winner having his second start in a handicap hurdle – he’s clearly unexposed in this sphere. He’s run some ok races to date – his return at Hereford was decent enough where they made plenty use of him, as he led for a long way, and jumped well. He faded in the end but the horse 3L in front of him has since won 3 on the bounce and is now OR 123. 6 winners in total have come out of that race, and a further 5 have come out of his Bangor effort, inc his stablemate as above. I don’t think he’d have enjoyed the soft ground there but in any case I think they were still teaching him about the jumping game. He probably didn’t like the tight nature of the track either, as he does look a unit of a horse to the eye and he probably takes some getting fit. His best hurdles run to date was LTO- they put a hood on there, and anchored him right out the back in a slowly run race to my eyes – well the horse that led finished second and the winner got first run on him. Dunne seemed keen to teach him how to race/switch off, and moving to 2 out he cut through the field like a hot knife through butter – those exertions may have taken their toll but he wasn’t exactly hard on him, and that ground could have been sticky enough. It was still a decent run and even more so in the context of this race. Of the unexposed ones, it’s the best recent handicap hurdle run on offer to my eyes. I think he could make this mark look very good at some point and I think this should be his trip. Hopefully today is the day, but he will be winning handicap hurdles. The market can guide with his, if he goes off 14s+, then all hope will rest on the other one I suspect.

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Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/153,68p, +0.8, 1 point win)

NONE

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

LTO winning trainers

2.10 MR – A Little Chaos 2/1 WON 2/1

Jockeys/Chasers

4.40 H – Global Domination 5/4 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • Lord Marmaduke Huntingdon 14:30 1pt e/w-7/1-There is a lot to like about this one. He had some very good novice form last year and based on that he is on a very good mark but has now switched to Stuart Edmunds which is a significant upgrade. Horses making their first run for the trainer in handicap hurdles are 3/9, 4p. He is also 3/4 in handicap hurdles at the track in the past 2 years. His trainer is putting on first time cheekpieces and is 2/9, 6p with horses with 1st time cheekpieces in handicap hurdles. On top of that just about everything he sends out is running well right now and has been for some time and he is 7/21, 13p +15.64 in the past 60 days. I like the booking of Joshua Moore given he is 12/63, 25p +22.7 and the jockey is 5/21, 7p +33.33 in handicap hurdles at the track since the start of 2014. Really expect him to go close.
    Looks Frozen Huntingdon 15:05 1pt e/w-7/1-Makes his handicap hurdle debut here and another who looks on a decent mark following his bumper form. The booking of STD was eye-catching given he is 4/9,6p in hurdles for the trainer. They replace the hood which he has worn the past 3 runs (all his hurdle runs so far) and put on first time tongue tie. trainer has a solid enough record at the track. Another who should go well.

    nickmazur 16/02/19 8:43 PM Reply


    • Happy Birthday Nick, have followed you and Josh over the cliff today, my head is pounding after going down the local and tipping up Sykes, don`t think i bought a round for the rest of the day, was going to go to Haydock, but, bottled it at last minute (wife and kids etc….haha)…well done to those who got on, weird drift in the market there…Two Amigos got found out, as I did say he maybe would, easier course etc he will win again.
      After that was a bit of disaster until Mr Cobden pulled another peach of a run out of the two Nicholls horses late on at Ascot yesterday, can`t wait for him to take the ride on ULTRAGOLD in the National…

      Stewart 17/02/19 11:00 AM Reply


      • Those races today were awful, from a punting perspective…glad i didn`t tip today..you two and all the others who tipped today are braver than me!! I used to pick in them, but, now feel as though you have to look at races valued at 10k or over to the winner to get punting value for money and that means normally, the Friday / Saturday or big midweek meetings. It has worked well for me and I`m glad after watching those two races today, each to there own though, used to do it day in / day out, but as you say Josh, sometimes you need a break from it to see the wood from the trees. Terrible about what happened at Haydock yesterday, as usual, they always focus on the numnuts who are out to spoil the face of racing, namely the thugs..normally after they have finished wasting away their giros..

        Stewart 17/02/19 4:26 PM Reply


        • You steamed up Stewart? Thought I was the only early drinker on here. ( smiley) Josh has a great site here and besides the hoss talk it’s apparent there’s some good people here where the rapport
          is good. I reckon he should do his best to expand that cameraderie with a separate forum where We can relax and talk bollocks, another for maybe discussing some theories without having to commit to selections. I know some American Forums have paid private sub sections that work admirably.

          chubnut 17/02/19 6:49 PM Reply


        • Ramblings of a semi drunk (hungover), old fool never do anyone any good, apologies! Nick, Josh and everyone else on here are brilliant and as I have said before, they have all helped me through some dark moments of my betting! I do feel the spotlight always goes too much on the negativity rather than the positive side, but, isn`t that life in general and the way the press work. Must have been half the news story when racing was cancelled with equine flu, soon as it was back on….not a great deal, just, “Oh and now onto something positive, the racing is back on…and Auntie Doris` cat has been rescued out of a tree!!”. 🙂

          Stewart 18/02/19 6:42 AM Reply


  • HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT +2.94

    No bets today

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    1pt win 2.10 MR – Queen’s Magic (4/5 currently)
    2pt win 3.05 H – Maroc (7/1 currently)

    Will settle to 10am odds

    RT+28.9

    Francis 17/02/19 8:10 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    No bet
    SP -4 BOG – 2 Last bet another SH 2nd caught on line at SP 5/1
    ELITE BETS
    No bet
    SP + 0.70 BOG + 2.97 yesterday 1 7/2 winner and 2, 2nds from 3 bets, one backed from 33/1 to 16/1 and lost by an head.
    There appears to be an abundance of talent who kindly puts their bets up on the forum for everyone of RTP members to benefit, and from myself thank you all.
    Colin

    cleafe 17/02/19 8:41 AM Reply


  • today’s selections.
    i have put some up for the tipping competition that i think have a chance that will probably go off at a good price but the only one i’m having a proper bet on is:
    Huntingdon 2-30. Collodi 14-1 1/2 pt ew, runs today off a mark of 104 last win was at 110 struggled of late but has Paddy Brennan back on board and this could be his level.
    also doing
    Huntingdon 3-05. Stoncoldsoba 14-1 1/2 pt ew
    Market Rasen 3-15. Contre Tous 28-1 1/4 pt ew
    Navan 4-00. Salsify @ bfsp 1/4 pt win for old times sake

    Martin Whittle 17/02/19 9:37 AM Reply


    • staked 3.25 pts, returns 8.25 pts , up 5 pts

      Martin Whittle 17/02/19 4:53 PM Reply


      • mucked that up.
        staked 2.75 pts, returns 9.25 pts , up 6.5 pts

        Martin Whittle 17/02/19 4:59 PM Reply


        • yep well done Martin, you read that 3.05 better than a few of us.

          Josh 17/02/19 5:03 PM Reply


  • Andy Holding on Oddschecker has put up born to please also.

    Jim 17/02/19 9:49 AM Reply


    • oh well that explains the price crash then, cheers.

      Josh 17/02/19 9:52 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    H 1.30 – Paddy A on 5th run @ 33
    M 4.50 – Miss Amelia on 8th run @ 7/4
    3m+
    H 4.10 – Western Climate on 7th run @ 22
    N 4.00 – Thunder and Roses on 5th run @ 12
    GL

    Titus 17/02/19 10:10 AM Reply


  • Nothing for me today. Just can’t find anything I’m happy to post. Might start following you guys in after yesterday’s haul. Excellent work! Only thing I don’t understand is to why most of you stay with the bookies for placing your bets when some of these horses you’re posting are coming in at or toward twice the odds on Betfair.

    Tim Hanson 17/02/19 12:31 PM Reply


    • Swings and roundabouts… I got Achille at 13/2 early price on the Thursday before racing, BSP was only 5.38… and Sykes yesterday as you say was 15.38, freedom of choice i suppose, but, was happy enough with the drift, but, you can`t always predict it, otherwise we would all be going one way or the other…

      Stewart 17/02/19 1:05 PM Reply


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