Members Daily Post: 16/02/19 (tipx1/complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

 

Ascot

1.00 –

Brio Conti   (micro class)  w2 12/1 S2 

Air Horse One   (all Hc’s, m runs) H3 G1 15/2 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Malaya   (m class) 12/1 S2 

Darling Maltaix   (m class)  w2 H3 I1 8/1 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

3.20 –

Mont des Avalous   (m runs) 14 I3 8/1 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Getaway Trump   (m’s runs and Hcdeb) 14  w2 H3 I3 3/1 

Zanza   (m class)  w1 12/1 S2 

Ar Mest   (m TJC)  w1 w2 14/1 S2 

4.30 – Worthy Farm   (m’s class and runs) 14  w2 6/1 

 

Haydock

3.35 – Yala Enki   (m runs)  w2 H3 I3 10/1 S2 S5 

 

Wincanton

3.30 –

Cucklington   (HcCh)  ES+  H3 5/1 S3A 

Sandhurst Lad   (m age) 30 H3 G3 4/1 

LIzzie Langton   (HcCh)  ES+ 8/1 S3A 

4.05 –

Grand Vision   (HcCh, m -c)  ES+ H3 11/1 S2 S3A 

Quite By Chance   (HcCh, m -c)  ES+ I3 22/1 S2A S3A S5 

Overland Flyer   (m Hcdeb) 14 G3 9/1 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

4.35 –

Dan McGrue   (m Hcdeb) 14 w1 w2  6/1 

Penn Lane    (m age) 30  w2 I1 11/1 S2 S5 

5.10 –

Flosboy Sam   (m -c) I3 14/1 S2 S5 

Shillingsworth   (m -c) 16/1 S2A 

Mauna Kea   (m age)  w2 12/1 S2

 

 

THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -10.4 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 1/9,2p, -1)

BIG RACE TIPS

Grand National Trial will be it for big races… a daily tip below also…

(free post, 3.35 Haydock… Royal Vacation + The Two Amigos, 1 point win the pair) 

 

Daily Tips

4.05 Winc – Like The Sound – 1 point win – 11/2 (WH/BetfS/BV) 5/1 (gen)

I think this could still be big enough here and I suppose i’ve gone back to basics and tried to focus on what should be a long term winning formula – namely in form chasers, who are progressive, who jump well, stay, handle all conditions, and may get an easy lead, or in any case race ‘up in the van’, in a no excuses position. Both Nick and Stewart landed on two of those at Sandown, finishing 1-2, and in the chasing game that really is the place to focus. This horse bolted up LTO over a tad further here LTO- he was being challenged again by Potters Corner and it’s hard to say how it would have finished- but he came into that race of a win and was rated 127, and they were both miles clear of the rest. I don’t think the 9lb rise will stop him here and he had a decent level of hurdles form. He’s been very consistent in his career to date and the tongue tie seemed to help LTO, as well as improving with experience. He also appreciated the better ground, which he gets again here. I thought he should be the fav in this, given the questions over the rest.

Some Chaos has to leave a poor run behind him LTO and was beaten well enough the run before. Ballykan just doesn’t like winning – it’s been a long time since he did and he’s getting a bit long in the tooth. Clearly I could be in trouble if he returns to that Kempton form, but I hope mine may be able to get away from him. He is the one I fear most. The likes of Kerrow and Overland Flyer are still unexposed but their recent runs have been poor and i’m happy to leave them. Ask The Weatherman needs softer I think. The others have too many questions for me, many of them getting on a bit now, not looking in the greatest of form, stamina questions, inexperienced jockeys over fences, and fitness/wellbeing concerns etc. The selection is the sort I need to be focusing on over fences if i’m ever to find some consistency/ability on the daily tipping front. Albeit i’m close to drawing stumps and just focusing on big races, of which there are quite a few in the coming weeks!

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/153,68p, +0.8, 1 point win)

NONE today.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

D Pipe PU LTO (11/1< best)

2.25 H – Warthog 10/1

3.35 H – Vieux Lion Rouge 10/1

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

12.50 H – Fanzio 50/1

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.35 H – Royal Vacation 11/1

1.55 H – Man of Plenty 50/1

2.55 H – Shoal Bay 16/1

Tom Lacey 

1.25 H – Jester Jet 3/1

Irish Raiders (16/1< guide)

3.35 H – Ah Littleluck 16/1

Saturday TJC (14/1<)

2.10 A – Reikers Island 5/2

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

LTO winning hurdlers

1.35 A – Now Mcginty (12/1< guide) 7/2

2.20 W – Molly Childers (12/1< guide) 3/1

Trainers to follow

2.55 H – Down The Highway (14/1<, 6/1< best) 6/1

1.25 H – Jester Jet 3/1

2.45 A- Thomas Patrick 22/1

3.20 A – Equus Amadeus 28/1

Jockeys/chasers

3.35 H – Robinsfirth (9/1< best) 15/2

3.30 W – Clondaw Rigger (25/1<)  11/2

4.05 W – Some Chaos (25/1<)  9/2

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

1.00 A – Darling Mix 8/1

4.30 A – Potters Hedger 16/1 / Worthy Farm 13/2

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book

2.55 H – Silva Eclipse (short term, guide) 11/2

3.35 H – Robinsfirth (medium term, guide) 15/2

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Sat Big Race Stats/Trends from Ascot/Haydock: HERE>>>

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

33 Comments

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  • Pipe, pulled up LTO micro
    7 pulled up at Chepstow, 5 won NTO.
    3:35H Vieux lion rouge.

    As he has another one,
    2:25H Warthog.

    compounddave 15/02/19 8:13 PM Reply


    • Yes, I am tracking this micro. I would not dive in yet as we need more of a sample.

      martin colwell 15/02/19 10:36 PM Reply


  • Some first class tipping on Friday. Full marks, particularly to Tim, although Stewart and others were not far behind. Nick due a slice of luck….!

    No bets on Saturday so just a results update.

    I knew Kalashnikov was poor value at 1/2 (pre non-runner) but a system is a system so had to put him up. Worse than that, I’m such a slave to my systems I backed him too! Tbf the first odds on loser the system has chucked out I think.

    HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT +2.94

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT+28.9

    Good luck to whatever you back on Saturday.

    Francis 15/02/19 9:27 PM Reply


    • Well done Francis, an excellent start.

      Saturday does look competitive. What about Al Dancer winning and then going onto win the 2020 Champion Hurdle? I will take 66/1.

      I will be tipping in the competition.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 15/02/19 10:44 PM Reply


      • Thanks Martin. I was quite confident that any downside to the system would be limited but wasn’t sure the extent of any upside, as you can never trust systems to perform as they have done in the past and there is always natural variance to contend with.

        Ticking along nicely so far though, hopefully more to come.

        Francis 15/02/19 11:23 PM Reply


  • 15:20 Ascot
    LISP 17/2 365 1pt win
    Yes he`s topweight, yes he`s a monkey and will only do enough when he wants, but, hopefully after last time, he will have learned his lesson! Mohaayed is a class above these, so, he did really well to finish 2nd to him, he`s still progressing and I think it may be 3rd time lucky getting his head in front!
    AR MEST 16/1 gen 1pt win
    Gets in here on the speed angle, just quick enough to maybe have some of these in trouble and may be the fly in the ointment in this big field race. Trainer and jockey do really well here and at 16`s is more than value.

    15:35 Haydock
    YALA ENKI 10/1 gen 1 pt win
    Miss Williams is hitting a purple patch and this guy is the toughest she has, he will stay forever and the new kid on the block Mr Nugent has been sent North to take the valuable 7lbs off this ones back. He will have been buoyed with his victory on V`s horse yesterday at Sandown and like i said it is funny he comes North the day after. The ground is drying out, but, Yala will be staying on when the rest have cried foul!!
    THE TWO AMIGOS 14/1 pp / bfr 1pt win
    Now, having watched his two wins this season over and over again, this race looks to be his biggest to date, but, he does travel really well…Haydock will find him out though and he is my FINE RIGHTLY horse, after last year when i tipped him up and he looked to be cantering as they turned in, only to bottom out and give up just before the last..Hopefully TTA can do the same tomorrow, he will either travel, or, finish out the back of the tv…nothing in between. Value at the price.

    I may add another in the morning, but, for now, that is enough to chew on!!

    As always, good luck with whatever you pick tomorrow and hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound.

    Stewart 15/02/19 9:43 PM Reply


    • P.s. Meant to say with LISP that it is 3rd time lucky after his win.
      Also believe that all horses once they have tried the marathon trips at Haydock (anything over 3mile at Haydock is like 4 miles elsewhere), struggle, you only have to look down the years at previous winners of this and the other staying races at Haydock, most have a hard time recapturing the same form they showed even last time out!! By that I mean horses that have won earlier at Haydock don`t normally win again, or, ones that pushed that little bit more in a “marathon” race find it hard to recapture form. I may be talking Cr**, it is only my observations, but, The Dutchman never fulfilled the promise of last year, neither did Daklondike, Blaklion came close, but, ran out of steam. When Yala won this last year he then went on to not do a lot, Bishops Road, Vieux Lion Rouge…Need i go on. It is why i ruled half the field out tomorrow, that Peter Marsh LTO was stamina sapping and maybe only Robinsfirth came out of it with any credit, but, still, I believe he was passing tired horses rather than looking like he was going to win, again, only my observations.

      Stewart 16/02/19 6:10 AM Reply


      • Well that will teach me for tipping Robinsfirth without tipping Robinsfirth…if you get my drift!?

        Stewart 16/02/19 6:20 PM Reply


    • 14:55 Haydock
      SYKES 8/1 gen 1pt win
      I really like the trainer and the owner/ jockey combination on this and THE TWO AMIGOS, they have a real “homely” feel about them and they have done well with PtP horses coming over into rules, they had/have a couple of horses at Richard Woolacott`s stable and i know they were really saddened at what happened there! They have kept those values together and this one looks an exciting prospect. It is a yard that punches above it`s weight, but, the winners have come in some big races, so, don`t be surprised today if a double is achieved!!
      SILVA ESCAPE 11/2 gen 1pt win
      The favourite i believe looks vulnerable, heart says the horse above, but, my gut and my head says this fella, Sue and Danny partner up and they are as tough as teak with horses coming here and doing the job, 11/2 is just value and i can see this getting shorter as the day goes on. lightish weight and was beaten just a nose here lto, expect this to be not as close today!

      Stewart 16/02/19 7:22 AM Reply


      • You’re making these races look easy mate. Glad it was the right way round today.

        nickmazur 16/02/19 3:08 PM Reply


        • Back down to earth with a bump Nick ..Ar Mest ran out of it..

          Stewart 16/02/19 3:29 PM Reply


  • Umndeni Ascot 13:00 1.5pt win 5/1
    Lygon Rock Ascot 16:30 1pt e/w 9/1
    Sykes Haydock 14:55 1pt e/w 15/2
    Red Infantry Haydock 15:35 1pt e/w 12/1
    Flosboy Sam Wincanton 17:10 1pt e/w 16/1

    nickmazur 15/02/19 10:15 PM Reply


    • My god I got one to hold on.

      nickmazur 16/02/19 3:05 PM Reply


      • Excellent mate, Lygon Rock has halved in price!

        Jim 16/02/19 3:35 PM Reply


  • today’s selections.
    Ascot 2-10. Calipto 8-1
    Ascot 4-30. Exitas 12-1
    Wincanton 4-04. Final Nudge 13-2
    all 1/2 pt ew

    Martin Whittle 16/02/19 1:04 AM Reply


    • one more 1/4 pt ew 15.05 Gowran Park. Peace N’ Milan 25-1 – Paying 5 Places

      Martin Whittle 16/02/19 11:16 AM Reply


      • yippeee a winner at last.
        staked 3.5pts, returns 6pts, up 2.5 pts

        Martin Whittle 16/02/19 10:06 PM Reply


  • 4.05 Winc 1pt e/w Ask The Weatherman 8/1 BV
    2.55 Hay 1pt e/w Sykes 8/1 BV
    Hugh

    alpha2 16/02/19 7:39 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    A 1.00 – Air Horse One on 4th and 7th run @ 8
    Festival
    A 3.20 – Lisp on 1st run @ 9
    …………Mont Des Avaloirs on 1st run @ 9
    …………Nelsons Touch on 2nd run @ 50
    H 2.55 – Sykes on 2nd run @ 8
    H 4.10 – Star of Lanka on 1st run @ 20
    W 4.05 – Final Nudge on 3rd and 4th run @ 9
    AW
    K 6.45 – Zoraya on 6th run @ 12
    3m+
    A 2.10 – Regal Encore on 2nd run @ 10
    …………Art Mauresque on 1st run @ 8
    H 3.35 – Yala Enki on 1st run @ 9
    GL

    Titus 16/02/19 8:53 AM Reply


  • Polyontrackanhopefullies :

    5.45 Kempton 13 Esspeegee 66/1 e/w 🙂
    5.45 Kempton 2 Nylon Speed (IRE) 6.50 win

    gl/gb 🙂

    George B 16/02/19 9:56 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    No bet

    ELITE BETS
    1.00 Ascot Honest Vic BOG 33/1
    4.05 Wincanton Some Chaos BOG 7/2
    7.45 Kempton Casper The Cub BOG 13/8
    Colin

    cleafe 16/02/19 9:59 AM Reply


    • Stewards Enquiry. Did think the winner cut across HV and caused him to break stride

      Ken McKenzie 16/02/19 1:11 PM Reply


      • Ken backed both for George put up Brio Conti
        BC BFEX SP 42.0
        HV BFEX SP 24.0
        Colin

        cleafe 16/02/19 1:15 PM Reply


        • Nice One George. Took HV each way, so small profit

          Ken McKenzie 16/02/19 1:33 PM Reply


          • thanks nice when you have a rub of the green for once 🙂
            gb 🙂

            George B 16/02/19 1:46 PM Reply


          • well done on hv as well .. shame we forgot the forecast 🙂 ..or is that just being greedy ?? : )?? 🙂
            gb 🙂

            George B 16/02/19 1:47 PM Reply


      • I had Brio Conti in the tipping competition. The others must be worried now!!!

        He did not interfere with anything. Rose tinted spectacles!

        martin colwell 16/02/19 1:47 PM Reply


        • well done martin ……………..so did i ..iam not so worried now ….lol 🙂
          gl/gb 🙂

          George B 16/02/19 1:48 PM Reply


  • This afternoon’s….

    Hay’ 1.25 Mega Yeats………….. 6.0
    Asc’ 1.35 Yalltari………………. 7.0
    Win’ 4.05 Ask The Weatherman 10.0
    Hay’ 4.10 Ask Ben………………. 11.0

    Back at 4.00 with the evening update.

    Tim Hanson 16/02/19 12:25 PM Reply


    • Evening update…… Well Ask The Weatherman (4.05) has been backed in big time so not expecting that bet to go down, but Ask Ben (4.10) is still hovering around the asking price. So isn’t over yet. I notice that there has been some good winners on here this afternoon so well done to all that put them up.

      Only the one for tonight…..

      Kemp’ 7.15 Higher Power 7.0

      Tim Hanson 16/02/19 3:59 PM Reply


  • Systems selection:

    2.55 HP Down The Highway (Emma Lavelle handicappers). 1 point win at 4/1.

    martin colwell 16/02/19 2:45 PM Reply


  • Hugh, Stewart and Nick…thank you very much!

    Chris Sengelow 16/02/19 3:09 PM Reply


  • Great pick with Sykes Nick, 15.28 on BSP, thanks and have a great weekend. Great finish really battled well.

    chris 16/02/19 3:10 PM Reply


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