Members Daily Post: 15/02/19 (complete)

Daily Tip x1, Section 1 (complete) test zone, big race stats/trends, Newc ‘through the card’

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Fakenham

3.20 – Halo Moon   (all Hc’s)  ES+ I3 7/1 S3A  S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

 

Sandown

12.50 –

Saintemilion   (micro runs) 14 8/1  

Working Class  (all Hc’s) H3 I3 8/1 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

4.05 –

Strong Pursuit   (m TJC) 14  w1 G1 4/1  3rd 

Darius De Bois   (m going if soft) 14,30 H3 7/2  UP

Salmanazar   (m runs) 14 I1 12/1 S2 S5 UP

Scotchtown   (m’s class and going if soft) 14,30 8/1 

4.35 – Its Got Legs   (nov HcH) H1 I3 G3 8/1 S4 S1+S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

 

 

THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

 

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -10.4 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 1/9,2p, -1)

 

Daily Tips

4.35 Sand – Shaws Cross – 1 point EW – 12/1 (gen) UP 5/1…well that was exciting pre race given the market move, less so in the race. Ah. He just wasn’t good enough but was always going to be hard held up that far back in a slowly run race.

that’s all for today, 09.10… write up..

I couldn’t be tempted in with any of the stats quals on this page, for one reason or another, but when taking a good look at the 4.35 (It’s Got Legs the ‘way in’ as a section 1 qual above, yep we know what happens now 🙂 ) this one just appeared massive at 12/1. I can’t work out why he’s that price. He’s the only horse in the race to have won on soft/heavy, and this looks like it could be testing enough today. He’s a course winner, having won over 16f in heavy three starts ago. He was beating a horse rated 115 that day and it was his stamina that got him home. He’s since run twice over 15/16f on lively enough ground, has travelled well, but looked outpaced. He was doing all his best work late at Wincanton, and before being DQ LTO (the jockey forgot to weight in!?) he was chasing home/3rd behind two 118 horses. Given this is only his 8th handicap, and 5th for this yard, I thought that stepped back up to 19-20f could unlock more in this ground, and there could still be room in this mark. He stayed on well enough at Fontwell on his stable debut in November over 19f when unfancied, beaten by a horse who’s since won her next 4, the last off a mark of 116, and a few behind have won since. The hood returns, which was left off LTO, I think he’s better RH (he can hang under pressure but they all tend to drift to the right here after the last, given the horses can see the bend ahead, that shouldn’t be an issue), he returns to muddy ground which was responsible for his best run to date, and the yard are in fine form – 2/4 in Feb so far, inc a winner yesterday. Tom O’Brien also rides the track well – 4/18,5p here in the last year, inc on this one three starts back, and Henderson is 2/4 here in the last year, both in handicap hurdles. I just thought he looked big…

The dangers… Copperhead did bolt up LTO and is in the ‘could be anything’ category. However he was whacked 12lb for that and it wasn’t the strongest of races to my eyes. That was on GS so this ground is also a question and it’s his first run here. Tizzard is only 1/48 with his handicappers here, 0/13,2p over hurdles, in the last 5 years, and he’s 0/14,5p in the last 14 days. The placed runners suggest they may be about to surge again and of course this one was winning 26 days ago. I did think he looked short enough but he does look the most progressive and is clearly a danger. He could get stuck in the mud here though, hopefully!

As could Sliding Doors who I tipped LTO – a shame they didn’t have the CP on that day – he’s yet to win a race and did look to have attitude issues LTO- he didn’t exactly put his head down and looked reluctant. So, the CP may help and it could be that he’s just getting better with experience. He may prefer this trip also however he’s another where the ground is an unknown – all his better efforts have been on a sounder surface, and again 3s looks short enough for one yet to win a race.

Putting Green didn’t look overpriced either given his best form, and his flat wins, were on Good or better. Another who gets CP and he’s now 0/8 over hurdles. He did run well LTO and if he handles the ground/gets home (a big question to my eyes) he may run well, but 6s didn’t look overpriced.

Cold As Ice ‘could be anything’ but until I see more he could just not be very good. He seems short also on the 4th start of his life but he makes handicap h debut – his price doesn’t look tempting given the amount of unknowns. A rare jockey booking also, 0/4,0p in the last year, although he rode this one LTO. Venetia is only 2/35 with her hurdlers here. There wasn’t enough there at single figure odds and how he’s shorter than the selection I have no idea. But, clearly one with this profile can take a big step forward as he no doubt needed his last run. It’s just hard to know whether he’ll stay, has the attitude to win, or whether he’s well handicapped. His first career run in Nov 2016 would suggest he may make this mark look lenient at some stage but with any luck he doesn’t improve on the trainer’s 3/35 record with handicap debutants in recent years. Hopefully he’ll have other days and is one for the tracker.

It’s Got Legs   He could be a danger but is hard to be overly enthusiastic about him and in the end I didn’t think his price was big enough. He’s now 0/12 in his career and doesn’t wear the visor for decoration. He has enough placed efforts to suggest he could go close, and 20f in soft may be ideal for him. The trainer does well here in handicap hurdles but it isn’t the sort of profile I want to be diving in with. I don’t think backing this type is a good long term strategy at this price but no doubt he’ll now leave me red faced. His general consistency may be enough, but it looks like connections don’t know his ideal conditions as yet.

The other two need to step forward plenty and I can leave them. The market will guide here. The last Henderson horse I tipped drifted like a barge, ran as such, but showed enough to enter Adam Norman’s notebook. Clearly I think he’s overpriced and time will tell whether that judgement is correct.

best of luck, Josh

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Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/153,68p, +0.8, 1 point win)

None today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

12.50 S – Extra Bald 8/1

3.50 F – Lord Du Mesnil 9/2

Tom Lacey

12.50 S- Dorking Cock 5/1

A Honeyball Mares

2.25 S- Duhallow Gesture (10/1< guide) 7/2

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning trainers

2.25 S – Queen of Hearts (12/1< guide) 15/8

Trainers to follow

12.50 S – Dorking Cock 5/1

1.20 S – Sir Egbert 11/4

Jockeys/Chasers

4.05 S – Darius Des Bois 7/2

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

12.50 S-  Hollywood Ken

3.50 F – Ratfacemcdougall 14/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

If you missed them… (should see them if you click ‘home’…) 

  • Adam Norman’s latest notebook horses; HERE>>>
  • Cheltenham 2019, Ante-Post Chat HERE>>> (your AP bets) 

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NEW 

Sat Big Race Stats/Trends from Ascot/Haydock: HERE>>>

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Newcastle ‘Through The Card’

one of you is off racing today and asked if i’d have a flick through this AW card! Brave soul. Any thoughts will follow asap, prob by 11am latest – i may see if any of you have tipped much there! If you have any Newcastle fancies, do post away.

To be treated with some caution as always 🙂

4.45 – Royal Cosmic

5.15 – Scenery EW

5.45 /

6.15 – Saisons D’or

6.45 – Lucky Lodge

7.15 – Star Cracker

7.45 – Tathmeen

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

49 Responses

  1. When I was a Bookmaker each way nick merchants used to drive me mad and although its never been my cup of rosie Nick Mazur’s rendition of stand and deliver has at this stage of my life has encouraged me to don the mask. Surprisingly I’m going through a purple patch of thwarting the Books by liberating doomed win stakes with cunning place selections that surely will bring about a reduction of my stakes with Betfair from a max of £2.35 to under a nicker. Sooner or later thieves get caught but until then ( smiley face)

    Sand 1.20 Tara Bridge each way.
    Tara bridge has solid form on the going, trip and course. It also should dictate the pace and Tom is one of the best in the game at this. If it wasn’t for the first two trainers names in the betting this would be the jolly, I never worry about taking on a Moore horse and Laceys can be quiet this time of year as he usually has bigger fish to fry.
    Newc 7.15 Star Cracker each way.
    I still struggle with Newcastle AW as connections have got it into their heads that if you go too fast you cant win. Whether this is true or not, most races are run at a nonsense pace to the point its almost impossible to predict, the jockeys further muddy the punting waters by being unsure where the best place position is, moving back and forth even in 5 fur races. Nigel Tinkler loves getting a three duck egged first time capper and the market showed it LTO but these horses can disappoint next time out for some reason and no better track as God knows what will happen. Milton road doesn’t look good enough but The Tud has been called upon while Lord cooper also has chances. The plan is at least one of these will fail in their expectation.

  2. Actual ( non comp) Tip – 12.50 Sandown, Oscar Hoof, 1 point each way at 14/1 BOG. Drops back to the minimum here which is interesting. Has run some solid races and now tries the minimum which may suit.

    4.05 Sandown, The Drinkymeister, 1 point each way at 10/1. Has had a run after a long lay off and now may be ready to go. Tom O’Brien takes over on board in an open looking race.

    Good luck.

    1. Great stuff Stewart, hope you had the forecast. Scotstown went 1.06 on betfair, sadly for Nick who also had 1.13 in its got legs.

  3. When I was a good bit younger I shared a house with a chap that worked with greyhounds among many other odd jobs.He suggested a night out at the dogs at catford,never bet on a dog before so i thought i would head down to the bookies to get my a bit of practice in.The races are short so I assumed if trap 1 got the lead and the tight bends surely he would win.4 races later and 4 wins I strided out with 30 pounds,enough for entry,a few pints and my betting bank which would surely be much swelled by the end of the night,as I had surely unlocked the key to this game.8 races in and i was bust

    1. I went to the dogs at Hove once and after a few failed crafty bets found I had a better chance of winning placing bets on the dog with the sexiest handler 🙂

      1. my Uncle was a big Dog racing fan and used to take us to Crayford, he used to watch avidly as the dogs entered and paraded and kept watching until the last dog entered the trap then rush to place his bet, when asked why he said always bet on the last dog to have a wee before going in. this is still the best system for dog racing i have ever known as he won more than he lost.

    2. Catford was my local track at a youngster. It was not the most honest of tracks and you had to be in the know to win a few quid. Del Boy would have stood out as an honest man down there.

  4. When I was a Bookmaker each way nick merchants used to drive me mad and although its never been my cup of rosie Nick Mazur’s rendition of stand and deliver has at this stage of my life has encouraged me to don the mask. Surprisingly I’m going through a purple patch of thwarting the Books by liberating doomed win stakes with cunning place selections that surely will bring about a reduction of my stakes with Betfair from a max of £2.35 to under a nicker. Sooner or later thieves get caught but until then ( smiley face)

    Sand 1.20 Tara Bridge each way.
    Tara bridge has solid form on the going, trip and course. It also should dictate the pace and Tom is one of the best in the game at this. If it wasn’t for the first two trainers names in the betting this would be the jolly, I never worry about taking on a Moore horse and Laceys can be quiet this time of year as he usually has bigger fish to fry.
    Newc 7.15 Star Cracker each way.
    I still struggle with Newcastle AW as connections have got it into their heads that if you go too fast you cant win. Whether this is true or not, most races are run at a nonsense pace to the point its almost impossible to predict, the jockeys further muddy the punting waters by being unsure where the best place position is, moving back and forth even in 5 fur races. Nigel Tinkler loves getting a three duck egged first time capper and the market showed it LTO but these horses can disappoint next time out for some reason and no better track as God knows what will happen. Milton road doesn’t look good enough but The Tud has been called upon while Lord cooper also has chances. The plan is at least one of these will fail in their expectation.

  5. Actual ( non comp) Tip – 12.50 Sandown, Oscar Hoof, 1 point each way at 14/1 BOG. Drops back to the minimum here which is interesting. Has run some solid races and now tries the minimum which may suit.

    4.05 Sandown, The Drinkymeister, 1 point each way at 10/1. Has had a run after a long lay off and now may be ready to go. Tom O’Brien takes over on board in an open looking race.

    Good luck.

  6. I see Geegeez has posted yet another of Dave Renhams weakly thought out renditions of what looks like a bookie busting formula based on stats that are correct but must go in the filing cabinet under “more nonsense” As the saying goes, I was knocking out betting stats in Bagdad when Renham was still in his Dads bag ( Smiley)

    Renhams stats, which are given more credence because they are pulled from a top class website are a completely useless in reality and its a recurrent theme throughout all his findings. The problem in following this sort of stuff is what I mentioned with Josh’s ” best of stats” and that is you are making assumptions that what is written in stone doesn’t need proofing within a race. Knowing that 25% of winners make all in sprints is pointless if you cannot be sure who will lead and if you do, what do you think the odds will be.

    Once again, there are no short cuts to success in betting, only short cuts in time saving. One still needs to see read the form of that lone front runner and make an assessment as to whether the price is right. Hopefully shortly I’ll post my research on
    betting sprints on the All Weather but don’t expect any revelations just some informed advice.

    1. The article highlighted the best all weather tracks for 5 furlong races. They apply more where a bend is to be negotiated rather than a straight sprint. A horse that has early pace and a good draw will have an advantage where a bend is to be negotiated. That is it in a nutshell.
      Not a pathway to riches but it does help in reducing the number of runners to consider in such races before the markets are fully exposed. Give it a go.

      1. Martin, I understand his article but its useless in reality. It’s based on winners that have led, try working that out in class 6 sprints, not alone working out if said horses are value in the betting. BTW, if people don’t know that front running inside drawn horses don’t have an advantage they need to find another hobby.

        1. Chubnut… there would have been a time when you didn’t have a clue that front running inside drawn horses had an advantage! 🙂 You’d maybe have read a book, or watched some replays, or read an article like the one on geegeez which made you think about such things! I mean I can’t think you were born with such knowledge. 🙂 Everyone is always at a different stage in the punting journey.

          It is still useful to a point – but your points are valid in the sense it clearly isn’t that easy – but if it’s clear the bias is as such, surely it helps as a ‘way in’ to them analysing in the way you suggest, working out the form, and the value etc. How are we meant to know if it’s a useful ‘way in’ otherwise?? It is still useful information, but as with any such info, it’s then in the application. And that’s something we will all continue to hammer away at.

        2. I do not think it is useless. I think it is limited and does state the semi obvious for those of us who are experienced punters. However, on geegeez they have a number of inexperienced punters to cater for. I have taken part in live you tube TV events matt has run that have been interactive and it did shock me how many inexperienced members geegeez has to cater for. I have also met Matt a few times at London Racing Club events and he is keen to make a point of how to look at races and the article you refer to does help with that for a significant number of his subscribers.

          1. Playing devils advocate again and looking at Renhams suggested best, kempton 5 furlongs. 9 of the 23 winners would be unlikely to be selected as the front runner and a further 6 winners would have a choice of 2, 3 and 4. While this would eliminate 80 points profit, when you dismiss losers where there was no front runners you would still show a profit, however this did include 3 x 16/1 and a 14/1 winner. So not such an easy trick but as others have suggested, food for thought.

    1. Great stuff Stewart, hope you had the forecast. Scotstown went 1.06 on betfair, sadly for Nick who also had 1.13 in its got legs.

  7. When I was a good bit younger I shared a house with a chap that worked with greyhounds among many other odd jobs.He suggested a night out at the dogs at catford,never bet on a dog before so i thought i would head down to the bookies to get my a bit of practice in.The races are short so I assumed if trap 1 got the lead and the tight bends surely he would win.4 races later and 4 wins I strided out with 30 pounds,enough for entry,a few pints and my betting bank which would surely be much swelled by the end of the night,as I had surely unlocked the key to this game.8 races in and i was bust

    1. I went to the dogs at Hove once and after a few failed crafty bets found I had a better chance of winning placing bets on the dog with the sexiest handler 🙂

      1. my Uncle was a big Dog racing fan and used to take us to Crayford, he used to watch avidly as the dogs entered and paraded and kept watching until the last dog entered the trap then rush to place his bet, when asked why he said always bet on the last dog to have a wee before going in. this is still the best system for dog racing i have ever known as he won more than he lost.

        1. Flawed logic Martin 🙂
          I’ve owned and raced dozens of greyhounds down the years and one of the common ways of ‘stopping’ them (ahem allegedly!) is a bit of extra salt in their last feed and then a bellyful of water just before the race 🙂
          Mike

        2. Interesting thought. (But bear in mind i know nothing about Dogs.) Surely it would therefore be a fantastic ‘system’ to utilise both your approaches? Dog with a sexy handler AND last to wee – 2 points win. If 2 different Dogs then 1 point on each with no odds on bets. Imagine how one of the Systems Publishers might promote this – nice 20 page padded out Manual and a free bonus system and all the usual gubbins! This time next year Wodney…. 🙂

          1. At Crayford it was the dog with the blonde kennel maid in a forecast with the one dog. I was a teenager then and so the system may now not apply.

    2. Catford was my local track at a youngster. It was not the most honest of tracks and you had to be in the know to win a few quid. Del Boy would have stood out as an honest man down there.

  8. today’s selections all at Sandown, no real stand outs so reduced stakes just 1/4 pt ew .
    12-50. Working Class 8-1
    4-05. Bramble Brook 20-1
    4-35. Shaws Cross 10-1

  9. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    S 1.20 – Valhalla on 1st run @ 12
    Festival
    F 2.10 – Brelan D’as on 1st run @ odds on……no bet
    S 4.05 – Duel at Dawn on 3rd run @ 12
    AW
    N 6.45 – Tommy G on 8th run @ 15/2
    3m+
    F 3.20 – Halo Moon on 2nd run @ 15/2
    GL

  10. Hip Op just a brief update few have put comments on the posts, and no doubt many more on here will probably end up having the op at some time.
    Yesterday was 19 days after op and went physio very impressed walking well, so she ended up giving me 3 harder excises to do alongside the previous 7.
    12 days after op first visit to physio, walked home over 2 miles.
    19 days after op told physio that i had walked home the previous week which surprised her, for the past 7/8 days walking 3 to 5 miles a day, went over what i do if reading a book do not sit but walk around reading, you have to build up your leg muscles so its no good sitting down.
    Over the moon for things are going so well, op pain still there but you have to get on with it and it is reducing now, did the nurses and physio a few dance moves,physio told me off whilst laughing.
    Colin.

    1. Well done Colin, delighted you’re doing so well. I’m just starting to build up again after some recent knee reconstruction. I think it’s a lot to do with how fit and active you were BEFORE the op. I hope to be back on the golf course before April 🙂
      Mike

  11. Francis System

    1pt win 1.20 S – Not Another Muddle
    1pt win 1.50 S – Kalashnikov
    1pt win 3.00 S – Rathlin Rose

    Prices settled at 10am.

    Lots of shorties of late, just the way it goes.

  12. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    S 1.20 – Valhalla on 1st run @ 12
    Festival
    F 2.10 – Brelan D’as on 1st run @ odds on……no bet
    S 4.05 – Duel at Dawn on 3rd run @ 12
    AW
    N 6.45 – Tommy G on 8th run @ 15/2
    3m+
    F 3.20 – Halo Moon on 2nd run @ 15/2
    GL

  13. Hip Op just a brief update few have put comments on the posts, and no doubt many more on here will probably end up having the op at some time.
    Yesterday was 19 days after op and went physio very impressed walking well, so she ended up giving me 3 harder excises to do alongside the previous 7.
    12 days after op first visit to physio, walked home over 2 miles.
    19 days after op told physio that i had walked home the previous week which surprised her, for the past 7/8 days walking 3 to 5 miles a day, went over what i do if reading a book do not sit but walk around reading, you have to build up your leg muscles so its no good sitting down.
    Over the moon for things are going so well, op pain still there but you have to get on with it and it is reducing now, did the nurses and physio a few dance moves,physio told me off whilst laughing.
    Colin.

    1. Well done Colin, delighted you’re doing so well. I’m just starting to build up again after some recent knee reconstruction. I think it’s a lot to do with how fit and active you were BEFORE the op. I hope to be back on the golf course before April 🙂
      Mike

      1. Mike
        You have a goal sure you will make it to the golf course before April, i am still amazed what they can do, for feel fantastic,. according to my phone at 1.45 walked 6 km and 8,479 steps so far today.
        Colin

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