Members Daily Post: 14/02/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Fontwell

3.10 – Le Coeur Net   (all Hc’s, micro LTO) 14  w1  ES+ H1 G1 11/10 S3A# UP

4.20 – Sartorial Elegance   (m TJC)  14  w1 H1 I3 G3 15/8 S4 2nd 

 

Kelso

None

Leicester

None

 

THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

 

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -8.4 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 1/9,2p, -1)

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/153,68p, +0.8, 1 point win)

4.40 Kelso – Black Ebony – 8/1 (gen) UP 11/2 , not much to say about that one, a decent educational introduction I suppose, one to track. Hughes with a superb ride from the front there.

that’s all for tips today, 09.02, write up…

On paper, and based on the stats i’m about to fire at you, I think 8s could look big for this one and i’d be mildly surprised if he’s out of the places here, and for those of you who prefer EW comfort, I wouldn’t put you off. This one has a far greater chance than 11%, and i’d put him in at 4s or 5s here…

With these ‘best of’ selections I need to have a higher ‘stats’ threshold as the way in, before looking at the horse etc, and on that front at least, this one looks very solid…

The trainer… with horses over ‘jumps speed’ distances, 16-19f, she’s 13/43, 21p, +104 SP, +196 BFSP since she took over from her Dad in 2018. (3/3 with Henry Brooke riding) That does include a 50/1 winner, and plenty in the 8/1-14/1 range. That’s not a bad micro in itself. Within those stats, in NHF she’s 3/9,7p, +37.  She’s 2/6 with those having their first ever career run. In non-handicap class 5 races she’s 5/12,9p, and she’s 3/14,6p with all runners at Kelso in the last year. In all non handicap hurdles/NHF she’s 11/44,21p, +75 SP. She can train. Oh,and with 5 year olds in non handicaps she’s 9/21,13p, +85 – 6/12,10p over 16f, 1/6,4p in NHF. So, that’s a solid stats base. Well, it’s as solid as you get really, for trainer stats.

The jockey… well this one hits the Brooke micro below, the ‘way in’, and trainer/jockey are 5/12 when teaming up in the last year, 1/1 in NHF races. Brooke rode Brian Ellison’s last 1st time out NHF winner in Jan, and I think there’s a chance he’d have had the choice here, and his agent has put him on this one – it’s Sean Quinlan’s first ride for Ellison in a bumper also, which may add weight to that.

The owners… they have Mega Yeats and Buster Valentine in training with Ruth, both are 2/3 in their careers so far, this jumps season. The former won his bumper 1st time up (did win a point, was first run for yard after a break) and Buster Valentine also won first time up for the yard in a maiden hurdle, he’d also won a point. It would appear they buy well and like to have them ready to roll.

The horse… the trainer knows this family well, herself and her late father having trained plenty of them. His dam won her bumper first time up and he’s related to 6 winners (some of them bumper winners), including Attaglance and Hi George who’d go onto to be solid 130 animals – so this one may be worth watching, whatever he does here. He will win races, if his breeding is anything to go by. His sire, Malinas, is 11/61, 25p with those having their 1st career start in a NHF race, and they generally prefer decent ground.

Clearly this one will now pull like a train, won’t be fit and will be disappointing BUT, for one having his first career run in a NHF race, the case above doesn’t get much better. The yard are going just fine, and I thought 8s could look rather big.

The dangers… well I thought this could be a three horse race…

The fav is the one to beat, and his price is probably about right – however he has had two goes without winning as yet, when fancied to do so, and had the 7lb claim LTO also, which in theory should have helped him. It could be that even if mine runs his race this one is just better, and the form of that last race could be decent. Prince Llywelyn could be a horse to follow, a unit of an animal who will be much better over fences next season you’d think. He could be nice though, and the 5th in that race has since won, the only horse to have run since. Such thinking is why EW on the selection may not be the worst idea, but i’m on the nose, as if he’s ready he could just be smarter than this lot, inc the fav. The fav may just need to repeat that last run to take this though, but does have the odd question now as he never looked like going past LTO. There’s also a chance this is a crawl>sprint, which i’m not sure will suit him either. Maybe Henry will ride mine forward if he is mentally tuned up, and steal this tactically. Maybe a 1-2.

Ferry All is interesting at a similar price and Ellison’s 1st time out stats in NHF races are decent enough. 6 winners in recent years, one at 10s, the other 5 all very well fancied, 5/2<. I’d like to think Brooke would have had the choice here as above, but he does use Quinlan, so I may be reading too much into that. This one is 4 though, and the two 5 year olds (fav + mine) may have the edge. He’s interesting enough and a danger.

I couldn’t really have the rest. It will be a poorer race than I have assumed if one of those three doesn’t take this… plenty in here are running 1st time up for trainer’s not associated with such winners, and the market suggests all of them are unfancied, for now at least. Of those with experience … well Cellar Vie  has had two NHF runs, and 69 days off since the last. He needs plenty more for me. As does Fostered Phil who gets a 1st time hood and again he needs more but has at least been running well. That Clonmel bumper hasn’t worked out very well. It could be he needed it LTO but could need further- and he will need to settle. He could be the right price, and is interesting to a point. Mick Easterby’s one who’s having his 4th NHF run, and he runs as if he wants further. Harry Bannister is down at Leicester which makes me think he doesn’t have as strong a chance, but again I could have read those bookings wrong. I can’t remember if Mick has first call on him, unless Charlie Mann does.  He does need more though but brings experience to the table – i’m not sure why he’d reverse the form with the fav from LTO though.

Anyway, happy enough with this one at 8s, whatever he does. He will be worth following in his career. If the fav bolts up, he will be worth tracking also,along with Prince Llywelyn from that Wetherby race and maybe some of the others in behind that day.

Best of luck

Josh

 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.20 F – Invicta Lake 6/1 WON 6/1>11/2

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

3.25 L – Eureu Du Boulay 5/4

A Honeyball Mares

3.45 F – Deja Vue (10/1< guide) 3/1 UP

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

1.45 L – The Captain (9/1< best) 10/3

4.20 F – Sartorial Elegance 15/8 2nd

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)

4.40 K – Black Ebony 8/1 UP

*

Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

4.20 F – Sartorial Elegance 15/8 2nd

*

Adam Norman’s Little Black Book 

1.25 K – Point Break (guide- long term) 3/1 UP

3.45 F – Regarding Ruth (guide- short term) 9/1 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW! posts if you missed them… (should see them if you click ‘home’…) 

  • Adam Norman’s latest notebook horses; HERE>>>
  • Cheltenham 2019, Ante-Post Chat HERE>>> (your AP bets) 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

49 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Might be tied up in the morning (not unfortunately involving a whip and thigh boots) so here are RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    F 3.10 – Le Capricieux on 7th run @ 3-11/4
    F 4.20 – Camron de Chaillac on 1st run @ 15/8
    Festival
    K 4.10 – Shantou Flyer on 3rd run @ stupid odds so no bet
    Mey 6.00 – walton Stree t on 3rd run @ 4
    GL

    Titus 12/08/19 1:06 AM Reply


  • Actual, not competition, tip – 2.05 Fontwell, King Cnut, 1 point each way at 10/1. A young improving horse. Only has ad 3 runs over fences, fell LTO but won its penultimate race.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 12/08/19 1:06 AM Reply


  • Might be tied up in the morning (not unfortunately involving a whip and thigh boots) so here are RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    F 3.10 – Le Capricieux on 7th run @ 3-11/4
    F 4.20 – Camron de Chaillac on 1st run @ 15/8
    Festival
    K 4.10 – Shantou Flyer on 3rd run @ stupid odds so no bet
    Mey 6.00 – walton Stree t on 3rd run @ 4
    GL

    Titus 13/02/19 7:27 PM Reply


  • today’s selections both at Fontwell.
    2-05 Goldslinger 9-1
    3-45. Regarding Ruth 9-1
    both 1/2 pt ew
    1/4 pt ew double

    Martin Whittle 12/08/19 1:06 AM Reply


  • Actual, not competition, tip – 2.05 Fontwell, King Cnut, 1 point each way at 10/1. A young improving horse. Only has ad 3 runs over fences, fell LTO but won its penultimate race.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 13/02/19 8:42 PM Reply


  • Blameitalonmyroots Leicester 16:00 1.5pt win 6/1

    nickmazur 13/02/19 10:21 PM Reply


  • today’s selections both at Fontwell.
    2-05 Goldslinger 9-1
    3-45. Regarding Ruth 9-1
    both 1/2 pt ew
    1/4 pt ew double

    Martin Whittle 14/02/19 12:31 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    No bet
    yesterday colins bet ran 3rd and Elite 3 bets 1 winner for a small profit and a 2nd at 9/2 SP.
    Colin

    cleafe 11/08/19 8:46 PM Reply


  • HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    1pt win 4.20 F – Sartorial Elegance 2/1

    FRANCIS SYSTEM

    2pt win 2.05 F – Silver Quay 11/8
    2pt win 4.10 K – Shantou Flyer Evens

    Francis 11/08/19 8:46 PM Reply


  • shout to the mc/gb posse’s or something like that ..lol
    we have another qualifier today 🙂 / 🙁 .. not sure whether to smile or frown …….
    5.20C WOTAMADAM ( our old mate mr ivory …but with monsieur dwyer onboard this time ? … he has ridden for him before and has got the best out of her so far ….. he does use dwyer a lot according to the rp filters (some of them may have been sometime ago tho ?) but about 107 rides and still showing a + £ 5.00 odd profit still .

    As we know this is a new system for us … and although we have had 2/2 failures so far ..it’s early days .. the hrb stats for 2017/2018/2019

    are 170 bets 39 wins = 23% win + £ 126.00 to SP AND +£ 169.00 on bfsp
    40 % get placed ( which is why i bet heavier on the extra place markets on betfair) A/E 1.68 AND a CHI OF 12.4 .

    Let’s keep the faith mark and keep chipping away .. it will fall into line for us sooner than later.

    gl/gb
    other than that a very quiet day pour moi today .. apart from about 20 of my “my horses” running today … which i only use as a back up and not a bet indicator really 🙂

    George B 11/08/19 8:46 PM Reply


  • emmmmmmmmmm …………………
    drifted like the proverbial barge this morning ( but not unusual for one of Mr Ivories)
    i would say place only at best at the moment …. look for some interest at he prices nearer to off time 🙂 small bets 🙂
    gb 🙂

    George B 11/08/19 8:46 PM Reply


    • George
      Draw could be a concern drawn on the outside 10 out of 10 also trying 7 furlongs for the first time all its races have been over 6 furlongs to many negatives cannot say that it cant win but not for me today.
      Well done yesterday a very nice winner at 14/1 BFEX 18.0 so about 16 1/2 after deductions.
      Colin.

      cleafe 11/08/19 9:45 PM Reply


      • HI Colin,
        Yep my betting brain has already deduced that it will just be an “interest only” staked fancy today for this one ….i did try and narrow it down on draw segments .. but no real improvement .. but i think the system can evolve to be a useful one .
        thanks for your interest and encouragement 🙂
        gl/gb 🙂
        p.s. trust the re-hab is continuing splendidly ! 🙂

        George B 11/08/19 11:20 PM Reply


    • Thanks G, will post anything else of interest within the hour.

      Mark Curtis 11/08/19 9:45 PM Reply


      • George, one horse stands out today on trainer/jockey stats: 8.30 Chelmsford, Caledonia Duchess. Trainer/jockey are 60% win 60% place in the last year. Good luck 🙂

        Mark Curtis 11/08/19 11:20 PM Reply


        • top man mc .. i shall take a closer look now .. think i will put in some forecasts in that race 😉
          gb 🙂

          George B 12/08/19 2:08 AM Reply


    • CLASSIC IVORY M.O. … now backed on the bf sportsbook ..but untouched so far on bf exchange .. have filled up on the exchanges now .. just incase 🙂

      George B 11/08/19 9:45 PM Reply


      • bally hell .. you need it to come 4th ..it comes 5th !!! 🙂 …… lol … another day 🙂
        note to self .. always listen to colin 🙂

        George B 12/08/19 7:03 AM Reply


        • Bad luck G! We live to fight another day 🙂

          Mark Curtis 12/08/19 12:49 PM Reply


  • Anyone else seen the Report from Geegeezs on ‘Pace and 5f AW handicaps’. ?Interesting read. Another one on 6f to follow apparently.

    John Unitt 11/08/19 8:46 PM Reply


    • yep … always enjoy these in my E-mail “freebies” .. very interesting as usual
      gl/gb 🙂

      George B 11/08/19 9:45 PM Reply


    • You can comment under the blog on Geegeez and start a discussion there. I have posted some thoughts there.

      martin colwell 11/08/19 9:45 PM Reply


  • Josh, how is Black Ebony a Best of Jump Stats qualifier when there are no qualifiers for Kelso? I thought you selected these tips from Section 1?

    Ken McKenzie 11/08/19 8:46 PM Reply


    • He also uses Section 3 Ken

      nickmazur 11/08/19 9:45 PM Reply


      • Ok thanks Nick. Knew there would be a rational explanation 🙂

        Ken McKenzie 12/08/19 7:03 AM Reply


        • It’s been like that for 3.5 months Ken since they started haha. I’ve always tried to use all the ‘stats quals’ as starting points, clearly without much success at the moment, bar the odd glimmer of light. I’ll get there, and will try and be more selective I think, we will see! Main focus on the big race stuff, esp for the next couple of months.

          Josh 12/08/19 12:49 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    No bet
    yesterday colins bet ran 3rd and Elite 3 bets 1 winner for a small profit and a 2nd at 9/2 SP.
    Colin

    cleafe 14/02/19 8:44 AM Reply


  • HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    1pt win 4.20 F – Sartorial Elegance 2/1

    FRANCIS SYSTEM

    2pt win 2.05 F – Silver Quay 11/8
    2pt win 4.10 K – Shantou Flyer Evens

    Francis 14/02/19 9:37 AM Reply


  • shout to the mc/gb posse’s or something like that ..lol
    we have another qualifier today 🙂 / 🙁 .. not sure whether to smile or frown …….
    5.20C WOTAMADAM ( our old mate mr ivory …but with monsieur dwyer onboard this time ? … he has ridden for him before and has got the best out of her so far ….. he does use dwyer a lot according to the rp filters (some of them may have been sometime ago tho ?) but about 107 rides and still showing a + £ 5.00 odd profit still .

    As we know this is a new system for us … and although we have had 2/2 failures so far ..it’s early days .. the hrb stats for 2017/2018/2019

    are 170 bets 39 wins = 23% win + £ 126.00 to SP AND +£ 169.00 on bfsp
    40 % get placed ( which is why i bet heavier on the extra place markets on betfair) A/E 1.68 AND a CHI OF 12.4 .

    Let’s keep the faith mark and keep chipping away .. it will fall into line for us sooner than later.

    gl/gb
    other than that a very quiet day pour moi today .. apart from about 20 of my “my horses” running today … which i only use as a back up and not a bet indicator really 🙂

    George B 14/02/19 10:31 AM Reply


  • emmmmmmmmmm …………………
    drifted like the proverbial barge this morning ( but not unusual for one of Mr Ivories)
    i would say place only at best at the moment …. look for some interest at he prices nearer to off time 🙂 small bets 🙂
    gb 🙂

    George B 14/02/19 10:38 AM Reply


    • George
      Draw could be a concern drawn on the outside 10 out of 10 also trying 7 furlongs for the first time all its races have been over 6 furlongs to many negatives cannot say that it cant win but not for me today.
      Well done yesterday a very nice winner at 14/1 BFEX 18.0 so about 16 1/2 after deductions.
      Colin.

      cleafe 14/02/19 11:03 AM Reply


      • HI Colin,
        Yep my betting brain has already deduced that it will just be an “interest only” staked fancy today for this one ….i did try and narrow it down on draw segments .. but no real improvement .. but i think the system can evolve to be a useful one .
        thanks for your interest and encouragement 🙂
        gl/gb 🙂
        p.s. trust the re-hab is continuing splendidly ! 🙂

        George B 14/02/19 12:51 PM Reply


      • just read mr proberts information on riding chelmsford … and he would not be put off by a higher draw( upto a mile) .I think it does one thing … it makes the mind up for the jockey … he has to ping the stalls and cut across before the first bend …. i’d be happy if the “jobmeister” Mr Winston was onboard .. but Mr dwyer knows the time of day as well … i hope 🙂 …………. as i say ………… we shall see ??? 🙂
        gl/gb

        George B 14/02/19 1:01 PM Reply


    • Thanks G, will post anything else of interest within the hour.

      Mark Curtis 14/02/19 11:13 AM Reply


      • George, one horse stands out today on trainer/jockey stats: 8.30 Chelmsford, Caledonia Duchess. Trainer/jockey are 60% win 60% place in the last year. Good luck 🙂

        Mark Curtis 14/02/19 11:33 AM Reply


        • top man mc .. i shall take a closer look now .. think i will put in some forecasts in that race 😉
          gb 🙂

          George B 14/02/19 12:58 PM Reply


    • CLASSIC IVORY M.O. … now backed on the bf sportsbook ..but untouched so far on bf exchange .. have filled up on the exchanges now .. just incase 🙂

      George B 14/02/19 5:03 PM Reply


      • bally hell .. you need it to come 4th ..it comes 5th !!! 🙂 …… lol … another day 🙂
        note to self .. always listen to colin 🙂

        George B 14/02/19 5:24 PM Reply


        • Bad luck G! We live to fight another day 🙂

          Mark Curtis 14/02/19 7:44 PM Reply


  • Anyone else seen the Report from Geegeezs on ‘Pace and 5f AW handicaps’. ?Interesting read. Another one on 6f to follow apparently.

    John Unitt 14/02/19 11:23 AM Reply


    • yep … always enjoy these in my E-mail “freebies” .. very interesting as usual
      gl/gb 🙂

      George B 14/02/19 1:03 PM Reply


    • You can comment under the blog on Geegeez and start a discussion there. I have posted some thoughts there.

      martin colwell 14/02/19 2:15 PM Reply


  • Seems the fella who thought Paddy Brennan was a busted flush might have to rethink that one!

    gearoid180468 11/08/19 8:46 PM Reply


  • Josh, how is Black Ebony a Best of Jump Stats qualifier when there are no qualifiers for Kelso? I thought you selected these tips from Section 1?

    Ken McKenzie 14/02/19 1:13 PM Reply


    • He also uses Section 3 Ken

      nickmazur 14/02/19 1:27 PM Reply


      • Ok thanks Nick. Knew there would be a rational explanation 🙂

        Ken McKenzie 14/02/19 1:53 PM Reply


        • It’s been like that for 3.5 months Ken since they started haha. I’ve always tried to use all the ‘stats quals’ as starting points, clearly without much success at the moment, bar the odd glimmer of light. I’ll get there, and will try and be more selective I think, we will see! Main focus on the big race stuff, esp for the next couple of months.

          Josh 14/02/19 1:55 PM Reply


  • Seems the fella who thought Paddy Brennan was a busted flush might have to rethink that one!

    gearoid180468 14/02/19 4:36 PM Reply


  • Blameitalonmyroots Leicester 16:00 1.5pt win 6/1

    nickmazur 12/08/19 1:06 AM Reply


Post A Reply