I don’t wish to spend Saturday evening/Sunday morning worrying about creating a post, so this will do for the weekend 🙂 There’s a separate post for the Tipping Competition, but if the number of comments gets silly i’ll reconsider.
Firstly, before my ‘trip to Naas’, some housekeeping…
A short video below. I’ve had some issues this end. I’ve had to approve manually around 40 comments on Thursday, that I wouldn’t have done usually. It should be automated after your first ever comment has been approved. This will be due to some changes my back end with how wordpress interacts with my members software which is all integrated. I’ll post an update on this, but I need to fix it somehow as Thursday’s antics aren’t practical moving forward. I think some of you may be both logged in to wordpress, and to my members club – and it may be a case of logging out of everything and logging back into member’s club. If you’ve been posting comments and they have not been appearing straight away, that will be why – awaiting my approval. Also, if you’ve had to fill out a form each time you’ve posted a comment, that will solve this problem also as you shouldn’t have to do that. Apols for the faff.
All explained below, including how to change your ‘display name’ . Following the below will also mean you can post in the Forum, if required.
It’s only 6 minutes or so!
NEW… (well sort of)
Something to read… i’ve pulled together in one place recent musings, and added some new research on HRB ratings in handicap h / chases..
UPDATED research pieces
• Which jockeys are doing well/improving/a look at Henry Brooke
• Handicap Hurdle Starting Point System
• Cheltenham Article/micro angles
• Reflections on my daily tipping
• Using HorseRaceBase ratings in handicap hurdles/chases
(and also in the Research Articles link within The KEY… HERE>>>
Something to watch, if you get really bored… (old youtube video, I should probably watch it again)
A trip to Naas
Given I won’t be doing much on here from Sat to at least Wed, I’ve have a good go and finding some stats pointers for Naas… what follows are STARTING POINTS... I haven’t really looked at these horses or races in great depth. Plenty of these angles may be worth saving for future reference. Obviously you’re free to use the following musings in any way you please.
Most of these stats are from diving into Horse Race Base…
This track is left handed, galloping and has a stiff 4f climb to the line… some similarities, to a point, with Cheltenham. Since 2014 at The Festival, horses that ran at Naas LTO have won 4 times. That is from 55 runners or so – don’t back them blind!
But, Messrs Gordon Elliot and Noel Meade are responsible for 3 of those… 3/14,6p, +90 BFSP with those Cheltenham runners that ran at Naas on their last start. A couple of monster winners in there. Willie Mullins had the other winner (1/18). All three of those have runners on this card, and it will be interesting to see if any turn up in a few weeks (I haven’t checked entries etc yet, but they may have runners from previous meetings etc)
The big names have done well at the track this season… on the jockey front.. Mark Walsh / Rachael Blackmore / B Gerraghty / Ruby Walsh and Bryan Cooper… all their rides are worth a check.
On the trainers front… Joseph O’Brien does well here, as does Henry De Bromhead, Paul Nolan, Gavin Cromwell and Noel Meade has the odd winner, but from plenty of runners.
JP McManus and Gigginstown House Stud both like having winners here also.
I’d be surprised if all of those mentioned above don’t take a race or two on Saturday’s card.
Gordon Elliot, with those sent off 6/1 or shorter is 10/42,21p here since the start of 2016. (all stats that follow in this piece are from the start of 2016)… With those aged 5 or 6 that improves to 9/25,16p, +15 SP…. 3/9,4p when Jack Kennedy rides. Those are strong pointers for this runner.
He’s of some interest given Henry De Bromhead is 10/38, 20p with those here sent off 14/1 or shorter SP. He is 2/6,4p with those having their 1st or 2nd career run. Rachael Blackmore rides, and that can only be a positive.
He’s off some interest also, given that Noel Mead’s Gigginstown owned runners are 5/15,7p here, 3/6 in Maiden hurdles. He generally does well with all his non-handicap hurdlers here… 9/39,16p (in last 5 years). He has one in the 1.10 that also hits those stats, but he would appear to be unfancied, but may be worth a market check.
It may be foolish to take on the Fav here, trained by Mullins and in the ‘could be anything’ camp. This one is more exposed but gets Cheekpieces on and is in form. This trip could be a bit short but she should race prominently and if can race within her comfort zone on the front end may run well.
JP owned horses here, running in Class 1s are… 13/40, 19p. 2/4,4p at Listed Level.
He could be the horse to focus on here.
I know he’s currently 7/4 but… JPs horses here in maiden/novice hurdles, ridden by Mark Walsh or Barry G, sent off 7/4 or shorter are… 7/11, 9p. Joseph O’Brien is 8/22,17p with his runners here over 2 miles, sent off 8/1 or shorter.
JP has a couple of runners in the 1.10 also, but the market would suggest they will have other days.
This one hits the same stats as Empire Escape above. He’s unexposed and in some sort of form. He may appreciate this shorter distance than LTO, given how he ran.
An interesting one given Paul Nolan’s stats here this season (3/12), and in Bryan Cooper he has a decent pilot on board. He’s also unexposed over fences and should appreciate this step back up in distance.
Those two could be the interesting ones against the field.
Leave Your Mark
He hits those JOB stats mentioned in the 2.40 above. He’s thoroughly unexposed on handicap debut and some of his novice/maiden form has worked out well. Fitness may be the question and as such 5s in a race like this may be short enough, or a sign that he’s ready.
He could be interesting also, having his first start in a handicap… Cromwell’s runners here sent off 9/1 or shorter are 4/7, 5p in recent years, so the market may guide with him. He hasn’t been running as badly as his form would suggest. Well, there have been plenty of recent winners out of his recent races, and many of the horses that have won those, or placed, are now 130+ rated horses. We could see a different horse now off this mark of 99, running in a weak enough, but open looking handicap.He could just be useless and the market will guide given those odds stats above.
He hits those JOB stats again, but may be short enough for a race like this. However he does have experience on his side and could step forward massively from that last run. A worthy Fav.
The same connections of the ill-fated Special Tiara. What a star he was.
Again, this one has the same stats as Royal Thief above and the market may guide.
Enjoy your weekend. I’m away in Milan from Sat, returning Tuesday late afternoon. I’ll be keeping an eye on things from afar, in case there are any issues. If you post a comment and it doesn’t appear, it means I will need to approve it, so don’t keep posting… following the video advice above will solve that problem, and has been successfully followed by a few of you so far. If you email me, please allow a bit if time. I’d usually reply within a couple of hours, esp mon-friday, but that won’t be the case over the next few days.