Members Daily Post: SAT 9th / SUN 10th

housekeeping/the comments, something to read, watch and a Naas ‘through the card’ of sorts…

I don’t wish to spend Saturday evening/Sunday morning worrying about creating a post, so this will do for the weekend 🙂 There’s a separate post for the Tipping Competition, but if the number of comments gets silly i’ll reconsider. 

Firstly, before my ‘trip to Naas’, some housekeeping…

Posting Comments… 

A short video below. I’ve had some issues this end. I’ve had to approve manually around 40 comments on Thursday, that I wouldn’t have done usually. It should be automated after your first ever comment has been approved. This will be due to some changes my back end with how wordpress interacts with my members software which is all integrated. I’ll post an update on this, but I need to fix it somehow as Thursday’s antics aren’t practical moving forward. I think some of you may be both logged in to wordpress, and to my members club – and it may be a case of logging out of everything and logging back into member’s club. If you’ve been posting comments and they have not been appearing straight away, that will be why – awaiting my approval. Also, if you’ve had to fill out a form each time you’ve posted a comment, that will solve this problem also as you shouldn’t have to do that. Apols for the faff. 

All explained below, including how to change your ‘display name’ . Following the below will also mean you can post in the Forum, if required. 

It’s only 6 minutes or so!

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NEW… (well sort of)

Something to read… i’ve pulled together in one place recent musings, and added some new research on HRB ratings in handicap h / chases..

UPDATED research pieces
• Which jockeys are doing well/improving/a look at Henry Brooke
• Handicap Hurdle Starting Point System
• Cheltenham Article/micro angles
• Reflections on my daily tipping
• Using HorseRaceBase ratings in handicap hurdles/chases

HERE>>> http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/New-research-articles-2019.-08.02.19.pdf

(and also in the Research Articles link within The KEY… HERE>>>
http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2019/02/04/members-club-the-key/

 

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Something to watch, if you get really bored…  (old youtube video, I should probably watch it again)

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A trip to Naas

Given I won’t be doing much on here from Sat to at least Wed, I’ve have a good go and finding some stats pointers for Naas… what follows are STARTING POINTS... I haven’t really looked at these horses or races in great depth. Plenty of these angles may be worth saving for future reference. Obviously you’re free to use the following musings in any way you please. 

Most of these stats are from diving into Horse Race Base…

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This track is left handed, galloping and has a stiff 4f climb to the line… some similarities, to a point, with Cheltenham. Since 2014 at The Festival, horses that ran at Naas LTO have won 4 times. That is from 55 runners or so – don’t back them blind!

But, Messrs Gordon Elliot and Noel Meade are responsible for 3 of those… 3/14,6p, +90 BFSP with those Cheltenham runners that ran at Naas on their last start. A couple of monster winners in there. Willie Mullins had the other winner (1/18). All three of those have runners on this card, and it will be interesting to see if any turn up in a few weeks (I haven’t checked entries etc yet, but they may have runners from previous meetings etc)

The big names have done well at the track this season… on the jockey front.. Mark Walsh / Rachael Blackmore / B Gerraghty / Ruby Walsh and Bryan Cooper… all their rides are worth a check.

On the trainers front… Joseph O’Brien does well here, as does Henry De Bromhead, Paul Nolan, Gavin Cromwell and Noel Meade has the odd winner, but from plenty of runners.

JP McManus and Gigginstown House Stud both like having winners here also.

I’d be surprised if all of those mentioned above don’t take a race or two on Saturday’s card. 

1.10

Empire Escape

Gordon Elliot, with those sent off 6/1 or shorter is 10/42,21p here since the start of 2016. (all stats that follow in this piece are from the start of 2016)… With those aged 5 or 6 that improves to 9/25,16p, +15 SP…. 3/9,4p when Jack Kennedy rides. Those are strong pointers for this runner.

 

1.40

Royal Thief

He’s of some interest given Henry De Bromhead is 10/38, 20p with those here sent off 14/1 or shorter SP. He is 2/6,4p with those having their 1st or 2nd career run. Rachael Blackmore rides, and that can only be a positive.

Fauguernon

He’s off some interest also, given that Noel Mead’s Gigginstown owned runners are 5/15,7p here, 3/6 in Maiden hurdles. He generally does well with all his non-handicap hurdlers here… 9/39,16p (in last 5 years). He has one in the 1.10 that also hits those stats, but he would appear to be unfancied, but may be worth a market check.

 

2.10

Teacher’s Pet  

It may be foolish to take on the Fav here, trained by Mullins and in the ‘could be anything’ camp. This one is more exposed but gets Cheekpieces on and is in form. This trip could be a bit short but she should race prominently and if can race within her comfort zone on the front end may run well.

JP owned horses here, running in Class 1s are… 13/40, 19p. 2/4,4p at Listed Level.

 

2.40  

Konitho

He could be the horse to focus on here.

I know he’s currently 7/4 but…  JPs horses here in maiden/novice hurdles, ridden by Mark Walsh or Barry G, sent off 7/4 or shorter are… 7/11, 9p. Joseph O’Brien is 8/22,17p with his runners here over 2 miles, sent off 8/1 or shorter.

JP has a couple of runners in the 1.10 also, but the market would suggest they will have other days.

 

3.10

Roaring Bull

This one hits the same stats as Empire Escape above. He’s unexposed and in some sort of form. He may appreciate this shorter distance than LTO, given how he ran.

Peculiar Genius

An interesting one given Paul Nolan’s stats here this season (3/12), and in Bryan Cooper he has a decent pilot on board. He’s also unexposed over fences and should appreciate this step back up in distance.  

Those two could be the interesting ones against the field.

 

3.40

Leave Your Mark

He hits those JOB stats mentioned in the 2.40 above. He’s thoroughly unexposed on handicap debut and some of his novice/maiden form has worked out well. Fitness may be the question and as such 5s in a race like this may be short enough, or a sign that he’s ready.

Captain Courageous

He could be interesting also, having his first start in a handicap… Cromwell’s runners here sent off 9/1 or shorter are 4/7, 5p in recent years, so the market may guide with him. He hasn’t been running as badly as his form would suggest. Well, there have been plenty of recent winners out of his recent races, and many of the horses that have won those, or placed, are now 130+ rated horses. We could see a different horse now off this mark of 99, running in a weak enough, but open looking handicap.He could just be useless and the market will guide given those odds stats above. 

 

4.10

Front View

He hits those JOB stats again, but may be short enough for a race like this. However he does have experience on his side and could step forward massively from that last run. A worthy Fav.

My Uncas

The same connections of the ill-fated Special Tiara. What a star he was.

Again, this one has the same stats as Royal Thief above and the market may guide.

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Enjoy your weekend. I’m away in Milan from Sat, returning Tuesday late afternoon. I’ll be keeping an eye on things from afar, in case there are any issues. If you post a comment and it doesn’t appear, it means I will need to approve it,  so don’t keep posting… following the video advice above will solve that problem, and has been successfully followed by a few of you so far.  If you email me, please allow a bit if time. I’d usually reply within a couple of hours, esp mon-friday, but that won’t be the case over the next few days. 

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

86 Responses

  1. Thanks for the Naas info, just the sort of stuff I like! Almost looking forward to tomorrow’s racing now 🙂 Have a great break.

    1. No probs, plenty of those stats refer to other runners on the card not explicitly mentioned, but that going by their odds seemingly had no chance. Anyway, hopefully they may point you to some profit, time will tell!

  2. JOSH WRIGHT UNPLUGGED
    Aka big race vs best of stats dilemma.

    Special thanks to betting Guru Prof Mustafa Puntsoon for his expert input and great curry recipe. Warning: contains many metaphors and nonsense.

    As we all know the person steering this ship has suddenly lost his sat nav and entered uncharted waters. Over the last fortnight he has reclined in the virtual couch of Racing to profit and bared his soul to anyone who might throw him a bone as to what has suddenly gone wrong in what once was a calm happy bank increasing World. The indiscriminate blame for the bleeding of points heightened as the results came in, first unusually sticky ground then changing weather until finally rock bottom hit and the admission that normal tactics just wasn’t working. In a desperate move to keep his head above water the dreaded word ” unexposed ” was mentioned which as betting psychologists will tell you, is the first sign of a terminal system. ( more on that later)

    Enter Mustafa who has looked at Josh’s situation and kindly passed on his esteemed opinion which I’ve translated myself. So ere it is guv, after havin a butchers at this bollocks the geezer must be mum n dad. Maybe a better translation is required ( red face smiley) Josh, your big race selections are successful simply because you have a tried and tested method that leaves you with a small group of potential horses to choose from and a strike rate which accommodates losers without having a stewards.

    Understandably owning a website like this you are always trying to improve the experience for subscribers and considering it’s based on specific stats it’s not a bad idea to use those stat based horses and combine them with your other winning strategies. However, the difference between them is while your big race analysis is open to all your theories, “the best of stats” already has selections which you are now trying to justify as a bet. Effectively your “best of stats” selections are arrived at in the opposite way to “big races” The psychological problem here is “anchoring” in that you’ve set out with the winner in mind and looking for reasons why others cannot win. In the big races you start out with a canvas of anything can win.

    And so on to the remedy. Once again theory and reality clash and the “best of stats” was a good idea in theory but in reality reversed josh’s own race reading prowess. The great start was a warning of how randomness makes a mockery of our theories and I think it’s best Josh drops the whole “best of stats” into room 101. Surely we all will agree Josh does a wonderful job on here and doesn’t need to give more, the site is very organic in its nature and to give an american football saying to Josh “don’t force the ball into double coverage”

  3. 15:10 Naas
    NELLIE PLEDGE 7/1 gen 1pt win
    ROARING BULL 7/1 gen 1pt win

    Sorry, no time for write ups.

    Hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound, good luck with whatever you pick tomorrow.

  4. after consulting my Ouija Board i have four big priced runners for Naas i’m so confident in these picks i’m having a 10p ew lucky 15
    12-40. An Fraoch Mor 16-1
    1-10. Circling Moon 50-1
    3-10. Spancil Hill 20-1
    3-40. Lake Malawi 18-1

    1. Tim, what are your thoughts on the use of a Ouija Board to find potential winners? Do selections regress to the ‘medium’?

  5. JOSH WRIGHT UNPLUGGED
    Aka big race vs best of stats dilemma.

    Special thanks to betting Guru Prof Mustafa Puntsoon for his expert input and great curry recipe. Warning: contains many metaphors and nonsense.

    As we all know the person steering this ship has suddenly lost his sat nav and entered uncharted waters. Over the last fortnight he has reclined in the virtual couch of Racing to profit and bared his soul to anyone who might throw him a bone as to what has suddenly gone wrong in what once was a calm happy bank increasing World. The indiscriminate blame for the bleeding of points heightened as the results came in, first unusually sticky ground then changing weather until finally rock bottom hit and the admission that normal tactics just wasn’t working. In a desperate move to keep his head above water the dreaded word “ unexposed “ was mentioned which as betting psychologists will tell you, is the first sign of a terminal system. ( more on that later)

    Enter Mustafa who has looked at Josh’s situation and kindly passed on his esteemed opinion which I’ve translated myself. So ere it is guv, after havin a butchers at this bollocks the geezer must be mum n dad. Maybe a better translation is required ( red face smiley) Josh, your big race selections are successful simply because you have a tried and tested method that leaves you with a small group of potential horses to choose from and a strike rate which accommodates losers without having a stewards.

    Understandably owning a website like this you are always trying to improve the experience for subscribers and considering it’s based on specific stats it’s not a bad idea to use those stat based horses and combine them with your other winning strategies. However, the difference between them is while your big race analysis is open to all your theories, “the best of stats” already has selections which you are now trying to justify as a bet. Effectively your “best of stats” selections are arrived at in the opposite way to “big races” The psychological problem here is “anchoring” in that you’ve set out with the winner in mind and looking for reasons why others cannot win. In the big races you start out with a canvas of anything can win.

    And so on to the remedy. Once again theory and reality clash and the “best of stats” was a good idea in theory but in reality reversed josh’s own race reading prowess. The great start was a warning of how randomness makes a mockery of our theories and I think it’s best Josh drops the whole “best of stats” into room 101. Surely we all will agree Josh does a wonderful job on here and doesn’t need to give more, the site is very organic in its nature and to give an american football saying to Josh “don’t force the ball into double coverage”

    1. You speak a lot of sense Chubnut. Plenty to ponder there and you could have hit the nail on the head about how it’s reversed my race reading to a point. I haven’t been looking to external factors as an excuse. All in my head. When best of were +40 and a 30% ROI I thought it was going ok but clearly is something fundamentally wrong with my approach and may well be for the reasons you say. Anyway. I’ll ponder again on my return!

      1. Another ‘Tales of the unexpected’ from the Nuts of Chub. I’m beginning to look forward to them TBH. Certainly makes a change from all the usual Saturday morning big race mayhem.

        Just one point I think is worth adding to the subject of Josh’s ‘Best Stat’s’ unexposed handicappers foray. Is that you can’t back them for profit all year round. For example…. I was putting them up on here up until the 17th Jan’ with 5W & 16L (for january), and then that was it. Has been no more put up since and there won’t be any more till the new season starts unless I just happen to come across an anomoly that has for some reason been off the scene for a while.

        I find that the market catches up with them in the end and there comes a point where I become dependent upon non handicapped events to get me by. Horses that have not had enough runs to even get a handicap mark. Hence the reason as to why I’ve been struggling to put up any bets this past couple of weeks. Unexposed horses in handicaps with the best stat’s are likely the ones to get spotted first, hence having been unexposed they now become exposed in the market and that is the time to get out.

        So my advice to Josh is not to throw in the towel on them, I love them and I know there is profit to be made from them, but most all the good ones have shown it by now and the rest are probably just cliff horses, so I know when it’s time to quit.

    2. Wise words from the Prophet Holynut. On a slight tangent a quick bit of advice from me for everyone else. If you don’t normally tip on Irish racing or Meydan have a serious word with yourself if you’re thinking about putting anything up away from these shores this weekend and keep your money in your pocket.

      1. What about the trotting, is that OK?

        In the virtual racing I like Lucky Lady in the 2.45 from Weirdsville.

        Good luck.

          1. Oh Nick, please don’t deprive us of your tipping prowess this weekend! I think you would be just as successful doing Irish racing as you are doing British racing.

    3. Bloody Hell Chubnut, just got in after after being at the birth of my 4th grand-daughter @ 07.52 ready to hit the pillow but need a cup of tea and thought RTP would be good for some light reading whilst drinking it.
      Fully awake now and have to say we can all glean positives going forward from that post.
      Mike

      1. Congratulations on the new arrival. Get her on a horse ASAP as you cannot start too early and a female rider must win The Grand National one day.

  6. 15:10 Naas
    NELLIE PLEDGE 7/1 gen 1pt win
    ROARING BULL 7/1 gen 1pt win

    Sorry, no time for write ups.

    Hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound, good luck with whatever you pick tomorrow.

    1. Sorry no write ups, got a lot on today…
      15:40 Naas
      CAPPUCCINO MAN 1pt win 8/1 gen
      EMPIRE BURLUQUE 1pt win 9/1 gen
      TRENCHTOWN ROCK 1/2 pt e/w 40/1 gen

      1. Bit annoyed with the hurdle race, read that all wrong, still, 2pts profit is better than a kick in the teeth.. haha

  7. after consulting my Ouija Board i have four big priced runners for Naas i’m so confident in these picks i’m having a 10p ew lucky 15
    12-40. An Fraoch Mor 16-1
    1-10. Circling Moon 50-1
    3-10. Spancil Hill 20-1
    3-40. Lake Malawi 18-1

    1. on a slightly more serious note, have a look at Circling Moon 9/21 on hurdling debut finishing 23l behind Vision D’Honneur who is highly thought of, 12l behind The Tartan Spartan. won over 2m on the flat off a mark of 68. this race is not as competitive as his debut and he should come on from that. at 66-1 + ,80’s in a couple of places might well be worth a small ew punt

    2. Tim, what are your thoughts on the use of a Ouija Board to find potential winners? Do selections regress to the ‘medium’?

      1. Not sure what you’re getting at Martin. Not even sure if you’re serious. Are you responding to the post I made regarding Josh’s ‘best stats’ bets?

  8. Hi sorry to see the uk racing off ! If anybody’s interested there’s a card at cagnes sur mer . I have attended every meeting since the 1st of December, so I’m getting a feel for it . The all weather course is the same surface as Kempton, and I think there’s a draw bias favouring low numbers on the 1300mtr and the 2000 mtrs races . Previous Cannes form works out well, horses what don’t win in handicaps but finished placed do well ( in France you only go up in the handicap if you win ) and I always look for jockey upgrades. Lots of the info is on the ATR site . My selections today race 1 pantomime the trainers confident of a good run and at 16-1 represents value . Race 2 poldina 2 bad draws recently , been placed and drawn 1, 4-1 is a bit tight . Race 6 le salon , drawn 18 of 18 and finished 2nd , drawn 2 today must have a great chance . Good luck , if you join in ( it’s sunny and warm here )

  9. T’other day someone (sorry can’t find post to name you) mentioned their use of Epic browser. I had a look at it out of curiosity and as I am always espousing on here about ie.snare and flash use etc it would be remiss of me not to tell you all to GET THIS BROWSER INSTALLED NOW unless you are using a good VPN. You may have to suffer a little trial and error with the settings but it will be worth it. I’ve had no problems so far logging in or navigating on bookies sites I use. Have a good read of FAQ’s etc before plunging in, it’ll make more sense of why I am being bullish about it and ensure you have an understanding of what to do if any niggles.
    Mike

    1. An interesting read Colin and probably has some merit, however as a punter I feel the BHA is correct with their actions up to now.

      1. Mike
        Heard Mark Johnson on Calendar News last night and he was a vet before becoming a trainer and he was happy with the shutdown.
        Colin

        1. The thing Twiston-Davies doesn’t appear to understand is that punters don’t want to hear that the reason the horse they put their money on came stone last was because it failed a flu test when it arrived back at the yard.

          Sure…. horse welfare has to come first…. but to carry on without knowing which yards have the bug and which haven’t is all about bookies welfare as far as us punters are concerned.

  10. Best Owner
    Just picked up on yesterdays post about worst owner, on the other side for me the best owner is Mel Morris Derby County’s owner lost a fortune backing the club with trusting advisors who had self interest rather than the clubs by giving average players 5 year contracts on £20.000 a year and we still have 4 who do not play first team football and just sitting out their contracts which thankfully end in the summer.
    Mel will lose £16 million on these 4 players alone let alone 5 years wages, but thankfully Mel is a local born business man and a Derby fan who has only employed English managers so far, spend a lot on the academy which is know bearing fruit Bogle 18 year old played in the first team all season and many youngsters are out on loan so the future looks bright.
    Mel certainly deserves to have success in the future and this year Financial Fair play as held Frank Lampard back from buying players in January, so next year when all the dross as gone Frank can get stuck into the job.
    Man Utd away charged Derby fans £40, Mel disgusted so gave every fan £14 rebate so they only paid £26 he his always doing something for the 23,000 season ticket holders, what an owner.
    Colin.

    1. Interesting stuff Colin, wow what a contrast with ours.
      If people will forgive my self- indulgence i have re posted my yesterdays posts below. I do it in the probably forlorn hope that one day the Football Authorities actually properly address having an effective code of practice on controlling Owners (difficult but surely not beyond the with of man) Thank you for those who have commented so far!

      Unfortunately we Coventry City, have THE WORST Owners in Football – my thoughts are unprintable. Vile hedge fund people who will be struck down by Karma at some point. People may not realise the Wasps Rugby Club own the Ricoh and if there is not a deal struck with them (bearing in mind S(H)I(T)SU are taking them to Court – they take everyone to Court), then my beloved Club, WILL FOLD at the end of current Season when deal runs out. They have turned away over 25.000 regular fans and along with many other Clubs have been all but ruined by their antics! EFL useless – i had 4 conversations with them when we played totally unnecessarily for over a year at Northampton, and all they are ever interested in was ‘fulfilling fixtures’. Appalling situation
      Terrible situation.
      While I’m not a huge football fan. What they have managed to do to the club is unforgivable. The fans and the city don’t deserve this.

      Warren Bottomley

      Thanks Warren, greatly appreciated – a proud City (almost flattened in WW2), and i am privileged to have gone through the remarkable ‘Jimmy Hill’ era 1961 – 67 when he produced literal miracles for both the club and the City. The very real possibility with just 7 home games left – of the Club folding literally terrifies me and i fear an enormous backlash if it does although i really hope its a peaceful one. Unless SHITSU withdraw their latest pending Court case very soon Wasps Rugby club, who own the Ricoh, will not entertain another years extension to the Rent. Remember these names if we do fold Joy Seppala – Hedge Fund Director and Tim Fisher the ***E ***E of a Chairman who took us to Northampton has promised another New Ground for the last 6 or 7 years (not one Planning consent ever submitted to a local Council) THEY will be the first people responsible for the first avoidable death of an ex Premiership Football Club. Hope i am wrong but many of us fear the worst!

      Wouldn’t normally post footie , but we all know Racing is as it is for now and feelings and passions running very high now around the Club. Long time since i first went to a game in 1959.

      All the best John

      1. Warren and John
        You have one of our young lads on loan Luke Thomas and the reports coming back are that he his doing very well, hope so.
        Colin.

        1. Yes Colin, i was going to mention him. As i now live in Yorkshire i dont get to see them that often, but all the reports are that he is a very good player and the fans seem to really like him. I realise you had a view on Richard Keogh quite recently but have to say that several years ago he was a top player before joining you. Apparently Player of Year twice for Carlisle, twice for Cov and i seem to recall 2 or 3 times for you. Sounds like he may have peaked now but that’s football i guess! Was a massive fan of Cloughie – oh that he would have managed England 🙂 John

    2. Sounds a good bloke Colin. Pity they will not get promotion this season!!!!!

      They need Dave Mackay at the back with Colin Todd.

      1. Ashley Cole and Andy King may start today couple of old heads needed for Derby are a very young side, hope that they do not go up not ready, but the owner and fans are really happy and Frank can really get stuck in at the end of the season, in such a short time he has made the fans happy again.
        Was their when Sir Brian Clough arrived and many asked the question why bring in Mackay to old past it we now all know what he did and cloughie was right mind you was he ever wrong!!! Totally privileged to watch Clough at Derby and Forest two old second division clubs taken to the top what a manager, and he won back to back European Cups with Forest do not think any other manager has achieved this.
        Colin Todd what a player anyway Clough always had research done on players before signing them and wanted to know what made them tick, one day clough drove by a telephone box and saw Todd inside, knowing Todd had a phone at home just round the corner Clough wondered what was going on, after some digging found that he had gambling debts to Whitaker Racing, Clough paid the debt off out of his own pocket and had words with Toddy and no doubt a clip around the ear, For Clough you had to be a team player on and off the pitch, and a happy team are a winning team, Man Utd are classic case at the moment same players happy now winning under Olle, unhappy with Marinio as manager yet he gets 12/15 million pay off.
        Colin.

  11. Hi sorry to see the uk racing off ! If anybody’s interested there’s a card at cagnes sur mer . I have attended every meeting since the 1st of December, so I’m getting a feel for it . The all weather course is the same surface as Kempton, and I think there’s a draw bias favouring low numbers on the 1300mtr and the 2000 mtrs races . Previous Cannes form works out well, horses what don’t win in handicaps but finished placed do well ( in France you only go up in the handicap if you win ) and I always look for jockey upgrades. Lots of the info is on the ATR site . My selections today race 1 pantomime the trainers confident of a good run and at 16-1 represents value . Race 2 poldina 2 bad draws recently , been placed and drawn 1, 4-1 is a bit tight . Race 6 le salon , drawn 18 of 18 and finished 2nd , drawn 2 today must have a great chance . Good luck , if you join in ( it’s sunny and warm here )

  12. T’other day someone (sorry can’t find post to name you) mentioned their use of Epic browser. I had a look at it out of curiosity and as I am always espousing on here about ie.snare and flash use etc it would be remiss of me not to tell you all to GET THIS BROWSER INSTALLED NOW unless you are using a good VPN. You may have to suffer a little trial and error with the settings but it will be worth it. I’ve had no problems so far logging in or navigating on bookies sites I use. Have a good read of FAQ’s etc before plunging in, it’ll make more sense of why I am being bullish about it and ensure you have an understanding of what to do if any niggles.
    Mike

    1. Hi Titus…It was me that mentioned it and have been using this for a number of years and it is great as it helps prevent getting junk mail and being tracked which reduces the risk of malware on your pc which prevents viruses being installed etc….I was hacked a few years back so that is the reason I use it as well as a other programmes to help prevent the same happening…it is free to use and it has been updated recently…like you this is highly recommended unlike my tips! Enjoy

      1. Cheers Silver,
        It’s an absolute boon for punters as it ensures the thieves can’t plant snare on your pc if you don’t know what you are looking for, which in turn helps to keep your a/c’s intact.
        General surfing is far more secure also, and generally quicker as a lot less shit going on behind the scenes.
        Mike

        1. Hi Mike
          All well and good but surely the accounts department will be keeping tabs on who and how often they are paying out to a customer and after a period of time will close the winning account down.
          Colin.

          1. The quickest route to closure/restriction is multi a/c’s and odds comparison site opened in browser as they share info. If no info to glean, the most common reasons for flags are non existent. Without them flags it comes down to misuse of a/c, silly withdrawals or random sweep bad luck. They will need to spend millions upgrading software to do what snare does.
            Regular small withdrawals and the odd deposit will help keep you under the radar. It used to be up to £50 a day but not sure of figure now and I’m not going to ring and ask. 🙂
            Mike

    2. Just tried logging into bf exchange. Make sure you change proxy server to UK or you’ll end up on US site. Other than that no prob.
      There is a problem with oddschecker though. Can’t navigate on site for some reason, will have a play and get back.

      1. Same problem.
        Seems the new version of Epic has something Odds Checker site dislikes i.e detection that they cannot access your server nos..as have not had a problem before with access…checked it on edge browser and that runs ok…not sure of a way round it as at the moment site will not let you close the offer box on Epic to allow you access to the site…not computer savvy so cannot help , just shows you they do not like hidden nos…for me, no loss as rarely use the site, apologies for lack of a solution…post if you find one as I will do likewise gd lck.

        1. The problem is caused by Oddschecker insisting on displaying ads and using trackers.

          If you want to use Oddschecker with Epic you need to load the website, click on the umbrella top right and change Block Ads and Trackers to No. Then exit the website and reload it.

          Kind of defeats the object of Epic though.

          1. Came to same conclusion myself Chris. Smacks of another underhand tactic by bookies being as it is now owned by skybet.

          2. Thanks. As you say, does defeat the object of using Epic but solution is not to use odds checker as prices between all the major bookies vary so little…resembles a cartel given that in reality they are owned by very few players now so just use Betfair as , so far, using Epic is not a problem Thanks again.

    3. given it a good go and i like it very nice bit of kit, only problem i have had is William Hill (can’t log in with email will have to check what my username is and try again) every other site works perfectly .

    1. An interesting read Colin and probably has some merit, however as a punter I feel the BHA is correct with their actions up to now.

      1. Mike
        Heard Mark Johnson on Calendar News last night and he was a vet before becoming a trainer and he was happy with the shutdown.
        Colin

        1. The thing Twiston-Davies doesn’t appear to understand is that punters don’t want to hear that the reason the horse they put their money on came stone last was because it failed a flu test when it arrived back at the yard.

          Sure…. horse welfare has to come first…. but to carry on without knowing which yards have the bug and which haven’t is all about bookies welfare as far as us punters are concerned.

          1. I’m a vet, which is not to say that I’m an expert on EI, but EI is only one, and not the most common cause of respiratory disease in racehorses. Signs can be subtle, hence many trainers take blood and do tracheal washes before running their horses to try and make sure the horse is well. Despite their best efforts some horses will continue to run inexplicably badly and undetected EI will be a cause in very few cases, especially as most horses are vaccinated.

            The Opening Show would have done better to have had an expert from the AHT, rather than the non-veterinarian from the BHA, to field the panel’s questions. Would be useful to know whether the current strain is covered by the vaccine that has been in use.

            I certainly think that those arguing that these control measures represent over-kill have a point.

          2. Malcolm
            Sadly if racing was on then BHA are there to be shot at, and now its not on they are there to be shot a no win situation, the fear factor today health and safety do not know if red tape have had a say.
            Colin

  13. I have a couple for Sunday in the big race on Sunday and i think one of the bookies has made a mistake, so, get on quick!!
    16:20 Punchestown
    SOLOMN GRUNDY 9/1 365 (only bookies going 9/1) 1pt win gen
    I don`t believe this price will hold for much longer, now, he is entered in Grade 1 race, probably at Cheltenham, so, Mr DeBromhead and the owner (Mr Brookhouse), must think highly of him. Tom Scu travels across the water for this and has ridden the horse 3 times albeit for a different trainer. Stamina may be his forte and the ground will be in his favour! 3m plus on soft/ heavy ground will be ideal and the forecast rain will again play into his hands!
    ISLEOFHOPEANDREAMS 16/1 gen 1pt win
    Another one who will enjoy the prevailing going, he may be second string, but, i always feel as though Some Neck is a bit like Cubomania, a nearly horse in the respect of he never really seems to do enough to win… and if he does, he only just puts his nose in front, i believe he will not enjoy the hurly burly of this big field hcp chse. IOHD though on the other hand needs this longer trip, slower ground and will relish this big field. He is a fighter of a horse as i like to call them..David Mullins, who you all know I love, is on this horse instead of Danny, so, that should be a tip in itself, he will be produced late I hope and has the speed to obliterate these!
    DINNIES VINNIE 33/1 gen 1pt ew
    Now, really I should be putting this as my nap. I have followed him all season and he owes me nothing, even at 2lb overweight I still think he is thrown in here, will love the extreme distance and is another plodder, if he is allowed to bowl along in front he could slip these, it depends how he starts though and that is a big if in this hurly burly big field Hcp. So, 33`s is about right as he goes into the unknown, they did want to enter him in one of the Nationals, so, we shall see….

    As per usual, hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you pick tomorrow.

    1. Blimey, the 9/1 lasted till I had finished typing, then the 15/2 went also…wouldn`t put you off at 7`s, but, any shorter….

  14. I have a couple for Sunday in the big race on Sunday and i think one of the bookies has made a mistake, so, get on quick!!
    16:20 Punchestown
    SOLOMN GRUNDY 9/1 365 (only bookies going 9/1) 1pt win gen
    I don`t believe this price will hold for much longer, now, he is entered in Grade 1 race, probably at Cheltenham, so, Mr DeBromhead and the owner (Mr Brookhouse), must think highly of him. Tom Scu travels across the water for this and has ridden the horse 3 times albeit for a different trainer. Stamina may be his forte and the ground will be in his favour! 3m plus on soft/ heavy ground will be ideal and the forecast rain will again play into his hands!
    ISLEOFHOPEANDREAMS 16/1 gen 1pt win
    Another one who will enjoy the prevailing going, he may be second string, but, i always feel as though Some Neck is a bit like Cubomania, a nearly horse in the respect of he never really seems to do enough to win… and if he does, he only just puts his nose in front, i believe he will not enjoy the hurly burly of this big field hcp chse. IOHD though on the other hand needs this longer trip, slower ground and will relish this big field. He is a fighter of a horse as i like to call them..David Mullins, who you all know I love, is on this horse instead of Danny, so, that should be a tip in itself, he will be produced late I hope and has the speed to obliterate these!
    DINNIES VINNIE 33/1 gen 1pt ew
    Now, really I should be putting this as my nap. I have followed him all season and he owes me nothing, even at 2lb overweight I still think he is thrown in here, will love the extreme distance and is another plodder, if he is allowed to bowl along in front he could slip these, it depends how he starts though and that is a big if in this hurly burly big field Hcp. So, 33`s is about right as he goes into the unknown, they did want to enter him in one of the Nationals, so, we shall see….

    As per usual, hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you pick tomorrow.

    1. Blimey, the 9/1 lasted till I had finished typing, then the 15/2 went also…wouldn`t put you off at 7`s, but, any shorter….

  15. Interesting to see how baĺlycasey goes tomorrow they say jockeys make bad tippers but Mick Fritz has to be one of the shrewdest punters going and really fancies this for the x-country in March at around 20/1

    1. I can understand having a go at 20/1 but Ballycasey is getting on in age and will have to cope with one or two plot horses in the cross country.

      Mick Fitz knows his stuff but he is not the greatest tipster in the world.

  16. Hi everyone I am just trying to come up with a few systems in Inform Ratings system builder and wanted some advice as to what percentage of strike rate should I be looking for.

    Greg

  17. Hi everyone I am just trying to come up with a few systems in Inform Ratings system builder and wanted some advice as to what percentage of strike rate should I be looking for.

    Greg

  18. Interesting to see how baĺlycasey goes tomorrow they say jockeys make bad tippers but Mick Fritz has to be one of the shrewdest punters going and really fancies this for the x-country in March at around 20/1

    1. I can understand having a go at 20/1 but Ballycasey is getting on in age and will have to cope with one or two plot horses in the cross country.

      Mick Fitz knows his stuff but he is not the greatest tipster in the world.

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