Members Daily Post:Fri 8th-Tues 12th(upd2/video)

updates/chat… Admin VIDEO (it’s exciting!)

As you’ve no doubt heard, there will be no UK racing until at least Wednesday 13th. The BHA will make a decision on Monday as to whether that goes ahead. The BHA have taken swift action, as did Donald McCain, and the actions of both will hopefully ensure all is fine soon enough. I mean when Foot and Mouth was rife they didn’t decide to cancel Chelt until the week before, and this is nothing like that.Ā 

But, there will be NO section 1 stats selections until at least Wednesday. My Irish Bonus Stats in my TTP report (basis for section 1) do not cover the meetings which take place in the coming days. (Naas/Fairy/Punchy)Ā 

There could be the odd test zone angle, so i’ll keep an eye on that. I may well post a daily post anyway, but will keep this one here for now as per dates in the heading.Ā 

On Saturday I am off to Milan, to watch Snow Patrol on the Monday. That has been pre-planned and in truth, I don’t mind an enforced break from not ‘thinking horse’, and maybe i’ll return with my analysis head in a better space. If you have any travel tips for Milan, do fire away! šŸ™‚Ā 

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Cheltenham… well with any luck the meeting will go ahead but clearly this throws plenty of prep plans up in the air. It will make my race stats/trends even more of a guide than usual- esp such stats as days since run, or the profile of the horses- no. wins etc etc – so many may be going into this 1 or 2 runs shorter than normal. We will see. You would think this benefits the big boys and girls even more, and the Irish even more so – I mean the meeting has been dominated by those in recent years anyway, so no difference there. Those big yards that have access to Lambourn, or have their own superb set ups/gallops that are much better than many others, may benefit even more. (Henderson/Nicholls /Hobbs /Ā  Tizzard /Ā  Skelton / Twister /Elliot /Mullins/JOB etc). Anyway, that’s still a few weeks off.Ā 

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I may glance to Naas on Saturday, and post some ‘pointers’ on Friday, a ‘through the card’ etc.

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The tipping comp posts will be posted as normal as there is Irish racing and from Dubai etc if that’s your thing. Hopefully you can see those when logged in. The forum is still playing up, linked to the issue below, but that daily post may be a better way of doing it anyway, and only takes me 60 seconds to do.Ā 

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Posting Comments…Ā 

A short video to follow, but I’ve had some issues this end. I’ve had to approve manually around 40 comments on Thursday, that I wouldn’t have done usually. It should be automated after your first ever comment has been approved. This will be due to some changes my back end with how wordpress interacts with my members software which is all integrated. I’ll post an update on this, but I need to fix it somehow as Thursday’s antics aren’t practical moving forward. I think some of you may be both logged in to wordpress, and to my members club – and it may be a case of logging out of everything and logging back into member’s club. If you’ve been posting comments and they have not been appearing straight away, that will be why – awaiting my approval. Apols for the faff.Ā 

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On Friday I will try and post some articles of relevance , or various stats research to have a flick through. It’s a good opportunity for me to do some admin – adding horses to trackers etc etc, all those little things which i’m generally useless at!Ā 

If you do spend plenty of time ‘thinking horse’, the pause that refreshes can work wonders.Ā 

*

 

PLEASE WATCH!Ā 

Mainly for anyone who posts a comment… but this 6 min video focuses on how best to use comments, following some recent issues – and how, when logged into members properly, you can change your ‘display name’ when posting comments, so it comes up as your name, rather than your username etc. Hopefully this makes sense to most of you. There have been some gremlins my end, and I’m still having to ‘approve comments’ , but this should fix it if followed. Cheers.Ā 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

68 Responses

  1. A micro for Dundalk – M Halford, 7-8F Hcps, Class 4&5.

    5.30 Luna’s Luck
    6.30 Gougane Barra

    Good luck.

  2. Josh, you asked Tim to check his profile, he amended it and then posting worked properly for him.

    My profile looked OK but I changed it then changed it back. Now, underneath Post A Reply it says Logged in as Chris Murrell.

    I’m hoping this posts without your intervention.

    1. Not only did that post without needing Josh’s attention, I now don’t get the message about needing to be logged in to post to the forum, so could happily post there too.

      All I did in effect was Edit profile and then Save profile.

      Then under Post A Reply it says Logged in as…

      1. Hi Chris, yep yours appears to be sorted now. I think my system, when you registered/signed up, simultaneously creates an account in wordpress for the blog in general, which is separate from your members account, but when logged in to members, that aspect of it had you logged in on the blog side- hence why i’ve had to approve them since I made changes back end, and why on the forum bit it said you had to log in, even though of course you were logged in on members side. I didn’t realise many were filling out the name/email/comment bit when posting a comment, as when logged in as now in members, you should just be able to post a reply. All a bit confusing! But yep you can edit your profile for your display name etc. There should be a way for me to sort that automatically my end I hope.

  3. Josh, you asked Tim to check his profile, he amended it and then posting worked properly for him.

    My profile looked OK but I changed it then changed it back. Now, underneath Post A Reply it says Logged in as Chris Murrell.

    Iā€™m hoping this posts without your intervention.

    1. Not only did that post without needing Josh’s attention, I now don’t get the message about needing to be logged in to post to the forum, so could happily post there too.

      All I did in effect was Edit profile and then Save profile.

      Then under Post A Reply it says Logged in as…

      1. Hi Chris, yep yours appears to be sorted now. I think my system, when you registered/signed up, simultaneously creates an account in wordpress for the blog in general, which is separate from your members account, but when logged in to members, that aspect of it had you logged in on the blog side- hence why i’ve had to approve them since I made changes back end, and why on the forum bit it said you had to log in, even though of course you were logged in on members side. I didn’t realise many were filling out the name/email/comment bit when posting a comment, as when logged in as now in members, you should just be able to post a reply. All a bit confusing! But yep you can edit your profile for your display name etc. There should be a way for me to sort that automatically my end I hope.

  4. Have a great break Josh, you deserve it after January! I m off to Daughter and family in Shropshire this morning – battery re-charge etc.
    Lets hope this break is not to long and that the Horses recover very fast, cheers John

    1. Ah – so the above log in now means my lifelong ‘cross to bear’ of being a 60 year supporter of CCFC shows up. Oh well !

    2. John, i’ve just edited your ‘display name’ so that next time you post it will be your name with any luck! šŸ™‚

  5. what’s the best place for archived results? trying to find the racing record of Spartan Missile, in particular a race in which Queen Bee was 2nd it was during Spartan’s long unbeaten run, googled it but can’t find anything.

    1. Martin, i’ve just edited your ‘display name’ so that next time you post it will be your name with any luck! šŸ™‚

  6. Hi Josh, hope you have lovely break and manage to get those batteries fully recharged!! Best wishes, Tom.

  7. Jamie Osborne
    Not to far away in a very competitive Meydan meeting with two 3rds and a 4th, the prices of the 3rds 20/1 and 12/1.
    Taking time to assess the trainers on lambourntrainers.com. The most positive so far are
    Jamie Osbourne
    Brendan Powell
    Jamie Snowdon
    S. Durak
    Mark Usher
    Ed Walker
    Dominic Ffrench Davis
    Nicky Henderson very selective because of short prices, did have a 2nd at 10/1 in a Saturday hurdle race.

    Negative
    Warren Greatrex fancies to many of his runners and they are not winning including the short priced ones, to give him credit have only watched the site for a couple of months but doubt if he will change, he has horses with Lee Bollinbroke Tipster( my views on him are well known)
    and he puts up Warren’s short price horses up and they regularly lose at 10/11, 5/4 etc.
    Hope this is of use to some for every positive trainer have had winners you cannot back every trainers horses only the ones when he gives decent vibes.
    Market is another indication when fancied most have been backed.
    Colin.

  8. Gotta say I’m impressed with the BHA for a change. Swift action from minimal info will hopefully keep a lid on it. Much better than the clowns at defra with F&M (mind you, all the brown envelopes being filled took up most of their time).
    The planning of alternative prep races is to be congratulated and indicates there are some members with full use of at least half a brain.

  9. Hey Josh, just a quick note, not based on anything you’ve posted today but just the general feel on what you’ve posted recently during this bad run. For me you seem to focus on what you’ve done wrong/badly recently in order to correct performance and whilst I think that is always worth while doing win or lose – sometimes you get lucky backing something shorter than you’d like so even though you win it may not have been a shrewd pick; but how about looking back to tips you gave that won and were a ‘shrewd’ pick? I think back to festival time the last couple of years when you were flying, are you still following that same process that proved so fruitful?
    As the sage old Chubnut preaches, the betting game is extremely psychological and its easy to retreat into your shell when things aren’t going well or changing approach to something apparently safer, I think this may apply to your shorter price selections recently, but by doing this you have changed your approach away from something that has worked so well previously.
    Anyway just a thought, focusing on the positive is something that I do, it never hurts to look back at former glories to solidify your approach and also helps with a bruised ego šŸ™‚ Personally i would prefer fewer tips (some days value selections just aren’t there) rather than tipping each day feeling like you have to feed the masses on here, quality over quantity is always best. There’s plenty of other tipsters on here that people can follow + all the stats qualifiers others can dig through.
    Anyway enjoy your break and hope you come back refreshed.

    1. Josh may be trying too hard but he is a young man, unlike some of us, and that is what they naturally do. I try to tell my sons that. My daughter is the only one who gets it but women are smarter than men. The break will do him good but does he have the wardrobe for Milan?
      Your words are wise. I am sure he will be back in the winners enclosure soon. I do not mind all the guys on here tipping and enjoy reading their thoughts. With data you just have to churn it and sort it and get what you need from it.

      I am missing the racing. I am not that keen on the Irish stuff or Meydan but may have a go on Saturday.

      Good luck all.

    2. Hi James,
      All very wise words.
      There are two elements really… the ‘big race’ tips including the free stuff – mainly the big 3m+ chases, and of course all the Jumps Festivals, as well as odd big Saturday race. I don’t have any concerns on that front generally – given the race types, field sizes, odds etc, losing runs of 40+ will happen there every now and then, but I take a long term view with those, and I’m in a good place mentally on that front – I think I still know how to read those, especially festivals which i’ve always enjoyed for numerous reasons. I suppose they are a one off – I have all my unique stats, all the trainer behaviour, I know the general profiles of winners, and I can apply all of that, and go to war with some nice priced picks.

      Then there is the daily stuff – in truth that’s a personal challenge as I have no excuse not to make that work, I don’t think – but then again, I spend more time each day on non-race analysis stuff, which may be the problem, whereas the race above I spend hours on and am fully engaged. Maybe I’m trying to make myself into something i’m not – I have always been naff on daily tipping overall, long term, sadly – there have been the odd green shoots – but something clearly isn’t working in my approach. All the ingredients are there- I read the game/analyse it in a similar way to Nick, but its that final few strides i’m just not doing very well. I don’t want my daily struggles/approach, to impact on my big race approach – then I am in trouble, and there’s a danger of that, esp on the odds – that did impact me in Nov/Dec when I kept going for shorties in big races, idiotically, looking for the easy way out.
      Maybe i’m just best focusing on the big races,as when im on my game on that front, i’m pretty good haha. Maybe i’m trying too hard and trying to do too much, outwith the daily element of running a business, the admin, thinking ahead 6 months, doing all the research etc, and spending 3-4 h a day studying horses is negatively impacting on everything else. I know we have the daily stuff covered really, esp with the likes of Nick and a few others- and maybe there will become a day when he’s made the official daily tipster! (his fee may be too steep mind, we shall see!! šŸ™‚ )

      I agree about less is more, that’s always been a preferred route, and maybe i’m trying to find bets that are not there- it’s actually easier to put up a horse than not to, if your mind is in the wrong place. I can’t hit +110 daily in Sept/Oct 2017, and +40 tops on the best of, +40 odd tops on daily in 2018 – and there not be something there to work on – but something clearly isn’t right.

      Anyway, i’ll get stuck into some Italian reds and all will be well on my return! šŸ™‚
      Josh

      1. Good that you think of it as two separate disciplines and think you’re right to. The festivals are unique and are what the NH season builds up to, so its right that trainer targets and the patterns they employ on horses they think can win at a festival remain consistent, that’s very different to analysing a race on a wet Monday at Hexham.

        You do seem to have a lot on and more pressure due to having a membership base to satisfy as well. Speaking purely for myself I would say you dipping in and out with fewer but more confident selections during the regular racing weeks is perfectly reasonable.

        Anyway enjoy some tuscan reds straight from the source šŸ™‚

        1. i’ll try! Oh as an aside… that short video above maybe relevant to you also, annoyingly i’m having to approve all of your comments since I tinkered with back end a couple days back! Hopefully the above may do the trick… (and if you’re having to fill out that form before posting every comment, it eradicates that…)
          Josh

      2. Hi Josh, try an Italian blend something like this Amarone della Valpolicella Classico if you can find it, err indoors swears by it, I’m in total agreement.
        Enjoy your break.

        Greg.

  10. A few more micros for the all weather when we get going again. I will monitor these and report back if any good.

    Dean Ivory – Kempton – class 3 or worse handicap – 7 to 12 F. 11/89 and 24p, +27 win, ROI 64%.
    Archie Watson – Kempton – class 3 or worse non handicap – 7 to 12 F. 8/30 and 15p, +22 win, ROI 73%.
    Charlie Appleby – Lingfield – class 5 non handicap – 7 to 10F. 7/17, +13 win, ROI 73%.

    1. Martin…… I’ve not been able to get on Archie Watson runners this past year cos the odds just aren’t there any more. So I ran this one you’ve put up and find that all the profit is from the previous season/s. If you run it for the past twelve months it just about breaks even to BFSP and shows a loss to ISP.

      This is exactly what I was referring to in that post earlier in the week about how quickly micro systems get busted these days,

      1. Quite, and Archie Watson, and Henry Spiller to a point became ‘talked about’ trainers in the media etc, and Watson’s AW stats were so eye popping, I suppose they were never going to missed – does look like any systematic angle has gone on that front, but useful starting points – then just that tricky area of working out which ones are value etc!

        1. They are micros to monitor as I said before. I am not proposing getting stuck in straight away but to keep an eye on and see what happens. As usual I will keep you all updated if there is any positive progress with any micro and if that is the case they will be posted up as systems selections. I am well aware of the odds of the winners and the losers and the dates that horses ran etc in these micros. I also understand that what happened in the past will not necessarily repeat itself in the future etc etc. That is why you monitor a micro before backing its qualifiers. Archie Watson did have a purple patch when getting going and there has been some regression. However you cannot keep a good man or woman down and we will see what he can do going forward.

      2. Just to see if I could tighten it up I did an SP rank check and if you take his fav’s out (-4.82) and restrict the bets to 2nd 3rd & 4th place in the market you can get a profit of just short of 16 points. Beyond that he had no wins at all. The year before he made a stonking profit across the board. Even backing his fav’s blind showed a decent return.

        Looks to me as though the market has him well stitched up at the moment.

        1. Maybe, we shall see? My experience of monitoring micros is that you need to monitor them from a broader context. Being too precise about what has happened in the past tends to limit you when you look at his runners in the future. What we need to do with micros is to have a base point to start and then looking at relevant runners and how they perform and then developing/changing the micro or letting it die.

  11. Josh or anyone

    The Tipping Competition was not going to do it at first but if i have the good fortune to win then the money will be donated to the injured jockey fund.

    Few days ago Josh put up where you are able to find the BF starting prices could you please let me know, also Josh may help if you can add this information to the rules for when new members join.
    Cheers
    Colin

  12. Have a great break Josh, you deserve it after January! I m off to Daughter and family in Shropshire this morning – battery re-charge etc.
    Lets hope this break is not to long and that the Horses recover very fast, cheers John

    1. Ah – so the above log in now means my lifelong ‘cross to bear’ of being a 60 year supporter of CCFC shows up. Oh well !

        1. A true fan not like these live in London support Man City or Utd, before floodgates open i know some are genuine fans born in Manchester live and work in London.
          At least you are not a glory hunter will have a look to see how Gillingham are doing, used to work for Henry Schien Dental Company based in Gillingham.
          Colin.

          1. Gosh, Coventry and Gillingham! They make Millwall look a top side.

            Mind you I do think 5/1 the Gills at home to Barnsley looks value. OK they are down the bottom but can pull off a result against the better sides. I saw Coventry under 23’s play Millwall under 23’s on Monday. All I can say is…..your suffering may not be over yet.

            Chins up.

          2. Unfortunately we have THE WORST Owners in Football – my thoughts are unprintable. Vile hedge fund people who will be struck down by Karma at some point. People may not realise the Wasps Rugby Club own the Ricoh and if there is not a deal struck with them (bearing in mind S(H)I(T)SU are taking them to Court – they take everyone to Court, then my beloved Club, WILL FOLD at the end of current Season when deal runs out. They have turned away over 25.000 regular fans and along with many other Clubs have been all but ruined by their antics! EFL useless – i had 4 conversations with them when we played totally unnecessarily for over a year at Northampton, and all they are ever interested in was ‘fulfilling fixtures’. Appalling situation šŸ™

          3. Terrible situation.
            While I’m not a huge football fan. What they have managed to do to the club is unforgivable. The fans and the city don’t deserve this.

          4. Thanks Warren, greatly appreciated – a proud City (almost flattened in WW2, and i am privileged to have gone through the remarkable ‘Jimmy Hill’ era 1961 – 67 when he produced literal miracles for both the club and the City. The very real possibility of the Club folding literally terrifies me and i fear an enormous backlash if it does although i really hope its a peaceful one. All the best John

    2. John, i’ve just edited your ‘display name’ so that next time you post it will be your name with any luck! šŸ™‚

  13. what’s the best place for archived results? trying to find the racing record of Spartan Missile, in particular a race in which Queen Bee was 2nd it was during Spartan’s long unbeaten run, googled it but can’t find anything.

    1. Martin, i’ve just edited your ‘display name’ so that next time you post it will be your name with any luck! šŸ™‚

    1. Thanks Tom, and thanks for your kind words a couple of days back, much appreciated. Glad you’re enjoying the ride, which is what it’s all about – i’ve tried to create something where that’s the starting point, after all it is a game to enjoy, with everything else following on from that. Thankfully with Nick and S1, we had a little 21 point boost or so before the enforced break, to lift the mood. There will be many more days like that ahead, as there have been in the past, and i’ll throw in the odd 20/1+ Festival winner, and all will be right in the world! šŸ™‚
      Last year I had an enforced mental break, but a bit closer to the festival, and the couple of months that followed worked out rather well (around +170 odd points from memory, Day 1 chelt to end of Punchy) Here’s hoping! Such big race profits tend to come in bursts with me, and they will do again at some point.

  14. Jamie Osborne
    Not to far away in a very competitive Meydan meeting with two 3rds and a 4th, the prices of the 3rds 20/1 and 12/1.
    Taking time to assess the trainers on lambourntrainers.com. The most positive so far are
    Jamie Osbourne
    Brendan Powell
    Jamie Snowdon
    S. Durak
    Mark Usher
    Ed Walker
    Dominic Ffrench Davis
    Nicky Henderson very selective because of short prices, did have a 2nd at 10/1 in a Saturday hurdle race.

    Negative
    Warren Greatrex fancies to many of his runners and they are not winning including the short priced ones, to give him credit have only watched the site for a couple of months but doubt if he will change, he has horses with Lee Bollinbroke Tipster( my views on him are well known)
    and he puts up Warren’s short price horses up and they regularly lose at 10/11, 5/4 etc.
    Hope this is of use to some for every positive trainer have had winners you cannot back every trainers horses only the ones when he gives decent vibes.
    Market is another indication when fancied most have been backed.
    Colin.

  15. Gotta say I’m impressed with the BHA for a change. Swift action from minimal info will hopefully keep a lid on it. Much better than the clowns at defra with F&M (mind you, all the brown envelopes being filled took up most of their time).
    The planning of alternative prep races is to be congratulated and indicates there are some members with full use of at least half a brain.

    1. yep fully agrees, they have been very impressive with this and have given the industry the best chance of getting back on it’s feet soon enough. You have no idea that all of these scientific bodies/committees etc are just lurking, ticking along in background, and they have all burst to life in an impressive and coordinated fashion.

  16. Hey Josh, just a quick note, not based on anything you’ve posted today but just the general feel on what you’ve posted recently during this bad run. For me you seem to focus on what you’ve done wrong/badly recently in order to correct performance and whilst I think that is always worth while doing win or lose – sometimes you get lucky backing something shorter than you’d like so even though you win it may not have been a shrewd pick; but how about looking back to tips you gave that won and were a ‘shrewd’ pick? I think back to festival time the last couple of years when you were flying, are you still following that same process that proved so fruitful?
    As the sage old Chubnut preaches, the betting game is extremely psychological and its easy to retreat into your shell when things aren’t going well or changing approach to something apparently safer, I think this may apply to your shorter price selections recently, but by doing this you have changed your approach away from something that has worked so well previously.
    Anyway just a thought, focusing on the positive is something that I do, it never hurts to look back at former glories to solidify your approach and also helps with a bruised ego šŸ™‚ Personally i would prefer fewer tips (some days value selections just aren’t there) rather than tipping each day feeling like you have to feed the masses on here, quality over quantity is always best. There’s plenty of other tipsters on here that people can follow + all the stats qualifiers others can dig through.
    Anyway enjoy your break and hope you come back refreshed.

    1. Josh may be trying too hard but he is a young man, unlike some of us, and that is what they naturally do. I try to tell my sons that. My daughter is the only one who gets it but women are smarter than men. The break will do him good but does he have the wardrobe for Milan?
      Your words are wise. I am sure he will be back in the winners enclosure soon. I do not mind all the guys on here tipping and enjoy reading their thoughts. With data you just have to churn it and sort it and get what you need from it.

      I am missing the racing. I am not that keen on the Irish stuff or Meydan but may have a go on Saturday.

      Good luck all.

    2. Hi James,
      All very wise words.
      There are two elements really… the ‘big race’ tips including the free stuff – mainly the big 3m+ chases, and of course all the Jumps Festivals, as well as odd big Saturday race. I don’t have any concerns on that front generally – given the race types, field sizes, odds etc, losing runs of 40+ will happen there every now and then, but I take a long term view with those, and I’m in a good place mentally on that front – I think I still know how to read those, especially festivals which i’ve always enjoyed for numerous reasons. I suppose they are a one off – I have all my unique stats, all the trainer behaviour, I know the general profiles of winners, and I can apply all of that, and go to war with some nice priced picks.

      Then there is the daily stuff – in truth that’s a personal challenge as I have no excuse not to make that work, I don’t think – but then again, I spend more time each day on non-race analysis stuff, which may be the problem, whereas the race above I spend hours on and am fully engaged. Maybe I’m trying to make myself into something i’m not – I have always been naff on daily tipping overall, long term, sadly – there have been the odd green shoots – but something clearly isn’t working in my approach. All the ingredients are there- I read the game/analyse it in a similar way to Nick, but its that final few strides i’m just not doing very well. I don’t want my daily struggles/approach, to impact on my big race approach – then I am in trouble, and there’s a danger of that, esp on the odds – that did impact me in Nov/Dec when I kept going for shorties in big races, idiotically, looking for the easy way out.
      Maybe i’m just best focusing on the big races,as when im on my game on that front, i’m pretty good haha. Maybe i’m trying too hard and trying to do too much, outwith the daily element of running a business, the admin, thinking ahead 6 months, doing all the research etc, and spending 3-4 h a day studying horses is negatively impacting on everything else. I know we have the daily stuff covered really, esp with the likes of Nick and a few others- and maybe there will become a day when he’s made the official daily tipster! (his fee may be too steep mind, we shall see!! šŸ™‚ )

      I agree about less is more, that’s always been a preferred route, and maybe i’m trying to find bets that are not there- it’s actually easier to put up a horse than not to, if your mind is in the wrong place. I can’t hit +110 daily in Sept/Oct 2017, and +40 tops on the best of, +40 odd tops on daily in 2018 – and there not be something there to work on – but something clearly isn’t right.

      Anyway, i’ll get stuck into some Italian reds and all will be well on my return! šŸ™‚
      Josh

      1. Good that you think of it as two separate disciplines and think you’re right to. The festivals are unique and are what the NH season builds up to, so its right that trainer targets and the patterns they employ on horses they think can win at a festival remain consistent, that’s very different to analysing a race on a wet Monday at Hexham.

        You do seem to have a lot on and more pressure due to having a membership base to satisfy as well. Speaking purely for myself I would say you dipping in and out with fewer but more confident selections during the regular racing weeks is perfectly reasonable.

        Anyway enjoy some tuscan reds straight from the source šŸ™‚

        1. i’ll try! Oh as an aside… that short video above maybe relevant to you also, annoyingly i’m having to approve all of your comments since I tinkered with back end a couple days back! Hopefully the above may do the trick… (and if you’re having to fill out that form before posting every comment, it eradicates that…)
          Josh

      2. Hi Josh, try an Italian blend something like this Amarone della Valpolicella Classico if you can find it, err indoors swears by it, I’m in total agreement.
        Enjoy your break.

        Greg.

  17. A few more micros for the all weather when we get going again. I will monitor these and report back if any good.

    Dean Ivory – Kempton – class 3 or worse handicap – 7 to 12 F. 11/89 and 24p, +27 win, ROI 64%.
    Archie Watson – Kempton – class 3 or worse non handicap – 7 to 12 F. 8/30 and 15p, +22 win, ROI 73%.
    Charlie Appleby – Lingfield – class 5 non handicap – 7 to 10F. 7/17, +13 win, ROI 73%.

    1. Martin…… I’ve not been able to get on Archie Watson runners this past year cos the odds just aren’t there any more. So I ran this one you’ve put up and find that all the profit is from the previous season/s. If you run it for the past twelve months it just about breaks even to BFSP and shows a loss to ISP.

      This is exactly what I was referring to in that post earlier in the week about how quickly micro systems get busted these days,

      1. Quite, and Archie Watson, and Henry Spiller to a point became ‘talked about’ trainers in the media etc, and Watson’s AW stats were so eye popping, I suppose they were never going to missed – does look like any systematic angle has gone on that front, but useful starting points – then just that tricky area of working out which ones are value etc!

        1. They are micros to monitor as I said before. I am not proposing getting stuck in straight away but to keep an eye on and see what happens. As usual I will keep you all updated if there is any positive progress with any micro and if that is the case they will be posted up as systems selections. I am well aware of the odds of the winners and the losers and the dates that horses ran etc in these micros. I also understand that what happened in the past will not necessarily repeat itself in the future etc etc. That is why you monitor a micro before backing its qualifiers. Archie Watson did have a purple patch when getting going and there has been some regression. However you cannot keep a good man or woman down and we will see what he can do going forward.

      2. Just to see if I could tighten it up I did an SP rank check and if you take his fav’s out (-4.82) and restrict the bets to 2nd 3rd & 4th place in the market you can get a profit of just short of 16 points. Beyond that he had no wins at all. The year before he made a stonking profit across the board. Even backing his fav’s blind showed a decent return.

        Looks to me as though the market has him well stitched up at the moment.

        1. Maybe, we shall see? My experience of monitoring micros is that you need to monitor them from a broader context. Being too precise about what has happened in the past tends to limit you when you look at his runners in the future. What we need to do with micros is to have a base point to start and then looking at relevant runners and how they perform and then developing/changing the micro or letting it die.

  18. Josh or anyone

    The Tipping Competition was not going to do it at first but if i have the good fortune to win then the money will be donated to the injured jockey fund.

    Few days ago Josh put up where you are able to find the BF starting prices could you please let me know, also Josh may help if you can add this information to the rules for when new members join.
    Cheers
    Colin

  19. NEW… (well sort of)
    Something to read… i’ve pulled together in one place recent musings, and added some new research on HRB ratings in handicap h / chases..

    UPDATED research pieces
    ā€¢ Which jockeys are doing well/improving/a look at Henry Brooke
    ā€¢ Handicap Hurdle Starting Point System
    ā€¢ Cheltenham Article/micro angles
    ā€¢ Reflections on my daily tipping
    ā€¢ Using HorseRaceBase ratings in handicap hurdles/chases

    HERE>>> http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/New-research-articles-2019.-08.02.19.pdf

    (and also in the Research Articles link within The KEY… HERE>>>
    http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2019/02/04/members-club-the-key/

    Josh

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