Members Daily Post: 07/02/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

ALL UK Racing Cancelled 

This equine flu outbreak could be very serious if not controlled and prospects of racing for the foreseeable future do not look good. This happened in Australia in 2007 in New South Wales and racing was halted from August to December. That’s how serious we could be talking. Fingers crossed but I’d be mildly surprised if this doesn’t last at least a week and if not longer but hopefully I’m talking nonsense.

 

 

THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

 

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -8.4 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 1/9,2p, -1)

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/153,68p, +1.8, 1 point win)

TBC

 

Our girl Blessed runs in the 8.25 Chelmsford. I’ll be there, so thought i’d do a quick video preview for those interested. Appears she’s only around 4/1, which may be short enough, but she won’t be far away, in what looks a competitive enough race. 

 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

TIPPING COMPETITION!

PLEASE post all ‘tips’ for consideration in the Tipping Competition in this new daily post HERE>>>

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Update: well having posted the below, and stressed again ‘THE’ starting portfolio, it was nice for Nick to chip in with an 8/1 winner and a 15.4 BFSP winner for Strategy 1. A +21 points day or so to lift the mood a tad. 

From yesterday, PLEASE read if you haven’t done so 🙂 

 

Results / Where To Start… ?? 

I’ve updated The KEY.. HERE>>> 

All results have been updated to end of 2018, with the 4 main strategies updated to end Jan, as well as all the Test Zone angles.

Part of my job is to try and guide you as to how/what to get stuck into, and i’m not sure i’ve done the best job on that front, esp for the Winter Season Ticket subscribers, but given the numbers still with us, that’s a testament to your long term vision! Maybe I’m a bit mentally wounded given my current struggles and what was generally a poor Jan.

I’ve always said less is more, especially if starting something new. I’ve hinted at the following portfolio before, but maybe I could have been more forceful.

There are 4 elements which you could start with/include in any portfolio…

  • Strategy: S1 (2018: +77 BFSP) 
  • Strategy S3A# (2018: +76 early/morn) 
  • My Big Race Tips (inc Free) (2018 +183 advised)
  • Nick Mazur (2018: +532 points, mainly 1 pt EW, when advised, available with at least x3 bookies)

Total: +868 points

Now, it would clearly be mad if those figures were repeated in 2019, but even half wouldn’t be too shabby. Those are real profits from live play.

S1 + S3A# ... I’ve tried to bang the drum for those, as the logic is very solid, given the use of the ratings pointers (red symbols) + my stats. They have started off 2019 fine, +15 between the two in Jan and were the only shining light from my content in an otherwise woeful January. They combine a bigger odds strategy, with one that keeps operating at a decent win SR.

My Big Race Tips… well I do still have confidence in myself on that front and, touch wood, have always churned out the profits LONG term 🙂 They can be a bumpy ride, especially when playing in 12/16+ runner C2/G3 handicaps. But March/April has served me well in the past and i’ll keep everything crossed that it may do so again.

It’s pretty hard for me to enthuse much confidence over my daily tipping efforts and I just have to face the music with those. I’m just not very good on this front yet. I hate being crap at anything really, especially racing related, and I will get there, but the results speak for themselves sadly. Freezing cold, and I am still flailing around for a disciplined approach in my head.

Nick.. well i’m sure he won’t mind me singling him out. On what he’s done to date since posting his tips, he’s the best among us. 2018 was quite ridiculous but such are his high standards, I won’t be surprised if he surpasses it this year. His +5 January looks positively glorious compared to some of us! (ahem)

If you’re not already, strong consideration should be made to following those four, or even just 1 or 2 of them. They should perform just fine in 2019, over the course of the year. It would be a decent return to £2 bets, building up over time.

Others… well like me, Colin has struggled a bit and he won’t mind me saying that. He’s a stalwart and will bounce back, in what has been a testing period for us both. (as I type he’s just had a winner at Newcastle which should cheer him up, and he’s been in this game long enough to know these blips will pass)

Tim’s had a great start to his unique approach, using min BFSP odds in novice/maiden’s generally. His value eye is something else. Stewart keeps landing on decent winners and could be the most underrated one among us.. are you +70 odd now, or am I making that up?? 🙂 Another 20/1 winner at the weekend, with his focus on high quality races. Solid results since he started posting more regularly in the autumn sometime (i forget, apols). Solent has done well since he started posting, and unlike some had a very good Jan also. And there will be others I haven’t mentioned, so apologies. The tipping comp will unearth a few stars as well i suspect.

So, despite some gloom, (mainly my own tipping efforts) the general picture isn’t too bad, but clearly this game can feel a struggle at times, and I need to make sure i’m doing all I can to highlight possible options. Always trying (unlike some of my tips 🙂 )

Anyway, as always comments/polite criticism/moans are welcome either on here or in private 🙂

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Nick’s winner… the below is posted for ‘educational’ purposes I suppose, for those of you who like such things. This was my take on his winner, some of which was pre race, some post race – in general this is the sort of profile to focus on, especially in handicap hurdles… I don’t think i’ve missed much off what Nick would have covered if he’d had time for a write up, but he’s the finest exponent of this craft on these pages…

My reflections post race… (thought about 80% of this pre race… not enough in depth on some of points below)
-he was a point winner, so we knew he could win at least, that also suggested that he would want a trip in time.
-this was only the 5th rules run of his life, unexposed, more to come one day. His second run in a handicap.
-this was a less competitive race than that uttoxeter one, most in here looked a bit more exposed, – a midlands/southern C5 versus a northern/scottish C5, there’s often a difference. (i didn’t appreciate that enough in my pre race thinking, whereas Nick did, thankfully for us all!) As Dixon pointed out on RTV also, he raced on the inside there on much the worse ground, and travelled up well for a long way, a slight drop in trip today, with a big field/solid pace.
-The trainer was in form in last 14 days, and doesn’t sent many on this long trek, 1/5,2p with his Ayr raiders before today, 1/2 with this jockey on – 9lb below his last run with the claim added.
-had to ask whether he was well handicapped… well that Bangor run 3 starts go, over too short a trip, probably not race fit etc – he was beaten 33L but that doesn’t tell the full story… the front 3 have all since won, and are solid 130 horses.. at 1lb per length over jumps, in theory he could have had a mark of around 100, but races off 84 here effectively. I think his point form is decent also (i didn’t clock that pre race)

Anyway, I may have missed something, but I suspect that covers most of Nick’s reasons! These are the sorts where the profit lies in handicap hurdles, generally. Nick sets the bar on finding them, whereas I need to up my game, but i think if he was 8s at 8-9am, i may have had a winner, but easy to say after of course and given my form, probably not. I stared at him for long enough this morning, hence the above. Hopefully we were all on. 

*

Betfair Hurdle Trends

This is probably one of the strongest stats races run all year, we shall see what the shortlist throws up this year…

Stats/trends profile HERE>>>

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

131 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • With very little on my plate today I thought I’d dip into my winnings and treat “her in doors” to maybe a new top from Primemarks followed by a Happy meal deal lunch at our local McDonalds. On arriving home I eagerly clicked the racing to profit bookmark and started to scroll down the wealth of knowledge and thinking how excellent this website is when I suddenly found myself the victim of a dastardly pincer movement !! As a shy retiring sort of person the effect was profound, firstly with my ball bag disappearing and now having to open a third bottle of Barolo. I feel the need to reply to these posts, especially the one from The Hipster who I’ve always held in high regard and love his retro attitude to modern day betting.

    I’ve replied a couple of times to Johns posts and feel its not advice he’s looking for but confirmation from others of his decisions going forward, which is fine as its a normal reaction in any situation. As Tim pointed out earlier, the betting World nowadays is full of information available instantly in a way that The Hipster could only dream about at the turn of the Century, yet still 90% plus lose money and even more people than ever are in serious trouble. So it’s not information or newly thought up systems that necessarily is the answer but what its always been in gambling, state of mind. The brain was formed for certain situations millions of years before Handicap hurdles at Ludlow and reacts oblivious by releasing chemicals that cause conditions like risk averse. It’s paramount to be fully aware of how these limbic feelings affect your betting, I’ve mentioned one book, “Your money and your brain” which a PDF can be googled and for a deeper read, “Thinking, fast and slow” of course there are many more. On a side a google of “statistical random walks” might enlighten some on how investments normally react as it would appear some are giving the impression that as long as certain things are put in place a loss will be set right on the same timeline.

    All in all though I do apologise John for losing my patience, my only excuse is the myriad of pitfalls I’ve fallen in myself and the heart breaking experiences I seen in 25 years in Bookmaking.
    So on to The Hipster. Colin, this time of the year isn’t known as the kipper season for nothing and losses from years gone by have blunted my enthusiasm for betting so I use the time to refresh my strategies for Cheltenham onwards with the Flat being the main focus. I don’t understand why you think I should have to post selections just because I post opinions. I spend a minimum of 4 hours studying races and probably another 2 hours texting like minded friends about races, use sites like this and Geegeez to save me time. I pay here for quick reference to stats and an informed opinion by some that I feel are sharp and happy to post. With the said uncertainty of form this time of year I’m afraid I have to decline your thumb fight offer. While the start of the flat would be better, it’s a busy time for me and only a challenge of 5k would be suitable.

    I’m not one for posting an opinion on a race without some sort of reasoning which is time consuming, so a big heads up for those who do. ( hand clap smiley)

    chubnut 11/08/19 9:33 PM Reply


    • I shan’t enter the fray, because people shouldn’t be provoked by lighthearted provocative statements. But I will say that you sure have learnt how to spoil a lady. When you have time off from wagering, of course.

      manyanga 12/08/19 2:29 AM Reply


    • WUM!!

      Phil Coverdale 12/08/19 2:29 AM Reply


    • Hi Chubnut, apologies accepted. Interesting post 🙂

      John Unitt 12/08/19 2:29 AM Reply


  • Dream Baie Huntingdon 13:00 1pt e/w 10/1
    Dans Le Vent Doncaster 14:45 1pt e/w 9/1
    Scotchtown Ffos Las 15:35 1pt e/w 10/1

    nickmazur 11/08/19 9:33 PM Reply


    • 1.35 Ffos Las – Tudors treasure 9/1 + Tara Well 10/1
      3.35 Ffos Las – Scotchtown 10/1

      These are my tips 3,4 & 5

      Currently 1/2 +1.90

      gallou 12/08/19 2:29 AM Reply


  • Josh – On the w1 strategy it does seem a good start point, but as you say wheels off at the moment (excluding today’s 2/1 winner) Do those that win have anything in common i.e. days since last run , staying in class etc. I was wondering if the win LTO meant that they hit the ceiling of their ability and couldn’t carry the penalty of 5 or 7 lbs to the next race and win again.Something to muse on

    finalflight 11/08/19 9:33 PM Reply


  • All racing tomorrow cancelled due to equine flu.

    Jim 11/08/19 9:33 PM Reply


  • Nothing today.

    silver 12/08/19 4:36 AM Reply


  • Breaking news – all GB horse racing cancelled due to equine flu.

    shuey 12/08/19 4:36 AM Reply


    • They say it is from Donald McCain’s stable. If a trainer did not have a runner at a meeting where Donald had one recently they, logically, would not be possibly infected?
      If that it all it is I do not think it will take a long while to sort. The flu incubates within days.

      martin colwell 12/08/19 5:33 AM Reply


  • With very little on my plate today I thought I’d dip into my winnings and treat “her in doors” to maybe a new top from Primemarks followed by a Happy meal deal lunch at our local McDonalds. On arriving home I eagerly clicked the racing to profit bookmark and started to scroll down the wealth of knowledge and thinking how excellent this website is when I suddenly found myself the victim of a dastardly pincer movement !! As a shy retiring sort of person the effect was profound, firstly with my ball bag disappearing and now having to open a third bottle of Barolo. I feel the need to reply to these posts, especially the one from The Hipster who I’ve always held in high regard and love his retro attitude to modern day betting.

    I’ve replied a couple of times to Johns posts and feel its not advice he’s looking for but confirmation from others of his decisions going forward, which is fine as its a normal reaction in any situation. As Tim pointed out earlier, the betting World nowadays is full of information available instantly in a way that The Hipster could only dream about at the turn of the Century, yet still 90% plus lose money and even more people than ever are in serious trouble. So it’s not information or newly thought up systems that necessarily is the answer but what its always been in gambling, state of mind. The brain was formed for certain situations millions of years before Handicap hurdles at Ludlow and reacts oblivious by releasing chemicals that cause conditions like risk averse. It’s paramount to be fully aware of how these limbic feelings affect your betting, I’ve mentioned one book, “Your money and your brain” which a PDF can be googled and for a deeper read, “Thinking, fast and slow” of course there are many more. On a side a google of “statistical random walks” might enlighten some on how investments normally react as it would appear some are giving the impression that as long as certain things are put in place a loss will be set right on the same timeline.

    All in all though I do apologise John for losing my patience, my only excuse is the myriad of pitfalls I’ve fallen in myself and the heart breaking experiences I seen in 25 years in Bookmaking.
    So on to The Hipster. Colin, this time of the year isn’t known as the kipper season for nothing and losses from years gone by have blunted my enthusiasm for betting so I use the time to refresh my strategies for Cheltenham onwards with the Flat being the main focus. I don’t understand why you think I should have to post selections just because I post opinions. I spend a minimum of 4 hours studying races and probably another 2 hours texting like minded friends about races, use sites like this and Geegeez to save me time. I pay here for quick reference to stats and an informed opinion by some that I feel are sharp and happy to post. With the said uncertainty of form this time of year I’m afraid I have to decline your thumb fight offer. While the start of the flat would be better, it’s a busy time for me and only a challenge of 5k would be suitable.

    I’m not one for posting an opinion on a race without some sort of reasoning which is time consuming, so a big heads up for those who do. ( hand clap smiley)

    chubnut 06/02/19 9:10 PM Reply


    • I shan’t enter the fray, because people shouldn’t be provoked by lighthearted provocative statements. But I will say that you sure have learnt how to spoil a lady. When you have time off from wagering, of course.

      manyanga 06/02/19 9:18 PM Reply


      • That was the best part. I’m still chuckling. I can only assume that was a mere weekday treat and Chubnuts weekend treats to the good lady are an upgrade haha.
        Nail on the head though … This game is mainly fought in the mind. I think I have Thinking Fast And Slow on a bookshelf. I should probably read it!

        Josh 06/02/19 9:22 PM Reply


        • I recall from an earlier comment that family activities were ruled out on Saturdays because they cost too much in missed wagers.

          manyanga 06/02/19 9:51 PM Reply


        • Everyone should read ‘Thinking fast And slow’ without doubt. Once you have read it you will understand why.
          Tipping is good fun but should not be taken too seriously and is not compulsory.

          You make money through betting and not tipping (unless you are selling them of course). I keep daily records of a significant number of tipsters here and elsewhere. The four I follow on here are Nick, Tim, S1 and S3A and two others elsewhere that I wont name. It is up to individuals who they follow for what reason but if you want to make money be clear what your strategy is and review it on a weekly basis (Sunday for instance) but stick with it otherwise and sort out your staking and stick to it.

          I sometimes think Chubnut is really Nigel Farage when he has some spare time in the evenings?

          martin colwell 06/02/19 10:15 PM Reply


    • WUM!!

      Phil Coverdale 06/02/19 9:22 PM Reply


    • Hi Chubnut, apologies accepted. Interesting post 🙂

      John Unitt 06/02/19 10:37 PM Reply


  • Dream Baie Huntingdon 13:00 1pt e/w 10/1
    Dans Le Vent Doncaster 14:45 1pt e/w 9/1
    Scotchtown Ffos Las 15:35 1pt e/w 10/1

    nickmazur 06/02/19 9:46 PM Reply


    • 1.35 Ffos Las – Tudors treasure 9/1 + Tara Well 10/1
      3.35 Ffos Las – Scotchtown 10/1

      These are my tips 3,4 & 5

      Currently 1/2 +1.90

      gallou 06/02/19 10:07 PM Reply


      • Crap, that shouldn’t have come out as a reply. Sorry.

        gallou 06/02/19 10:09 PM Reply


  • Josh – On the w1 strategy it does seem a good start point, but as you say wheels off at the moment (excluding today’s 2/1 winner) Do those that win have anything in common i.e. days since last run , staying in class etc. I was wondering if the win LTO meant that they hit the ceiling of their ability and couldn’t carry the penalty of 5 or 7 lbs to the next race and win again.Something to muse on

    finalflight 06/02/19 10:29 PM Reply


    • yep there may be something to that… the original logic was that it made sense for a trainer to send a LTO winner to a track where they’d had success etc, hence hitting my TTP stats. clearly the profile for each will vary and in general you’d want to be homing in on those ones still unexposed. An in-form jumps horse is a big positive. It could be that, systematically, it isn’t that strong an angle after such a positive start, maybe masked by the odd big priced winner, and that sort may be over-bet more obviously. It clearly isn’t as strong as those with a ratings pointers element either, and it would appear i was maybe too eager to recommend that one. A -20 loss isn’t a problem with some of the other strategies, but given the general prices of that one it would take some clawing back, and would need to find the odd biggie, which it may continue to do. But i’d hoped it would be a bigger win SR strategy. We will see.
      Since 2014-, LTO winners win at a SR of 17% in handicap hurdles/chases (% goes down for each position thereafter) so it would need to be doing much better than that.

      Josh 07/02/19 12:26 PM Reply


  • All horse racing cancelled for the foreseeable future after outbreak of equine influenza

    Aaron 07/02/19 12:02 AM Reply


  • All British racing cancelled on Thursday folks due to equine flu outbreak ☹

    Russ 07/02/19 12:03 AM Reply


  • All racing tomorrow cancelled due to equine flu.

    Jim 07/02/19 12:16 AM Reply


  • No horseracing in Britain from today due to an outbreak of equine influenza

    Aaron 07/02/19 12:17 AM Reply


  • Nothing today.

    silver 07/02/19 12:19 AM Reply


  • Breaking news – all GB horse racing cancelled due to equine flu.

    shuey 07/02/19 12:48 AM Reply


    • They say it is from Donald McCain’s stable. If a trainer did not have a runner at a meeting where Donald had one recently they, logically, would not be possibly infected?
      If that it all it is I do not think it will take a long while to sort. The flu incubates within days.

      martin colwell 07/02/19 9:50 AM Reply


  • All British horse racing meetings on Thursday have been cancelled because of an outbreak of equine flu.

    Simon Karios 12/08/19 5:33 AM Reply


  • All racing off. This could be bad for the run up to Cheltenham. Hopefully the close down wont go on too long. A few years ago they had one for the same reason in Australia that lasted from many weeks.

    bogsnorkeler 12/08/19 5:33 AM Reply


  • looks like severe withdrawal symptoms will be setting in, might even have to start talking to the missus to alleviate the boredom 🙂

    martin whittle 07/02/19 1:18 AM Reply


  • Josh what’s happened to the forum having terrible trouble posting and it’s just not the same don’t have the name/email/website bit to fill in.

    martin26 07/02/19 1:25 AM Reply


    • Yep there have been issues with the odd gremlin as wouldn’t allow plenty to post. I’ve set up a separate daily post for tipping comp which may work better anyway, I’m not sure. The forum issues have been fixed I think but need to check.

      Josh 07/02/19 7:46 AM Reply


  • Tim, that was a genius piece of work you did with Nick’s figures to bsp minimum.

    Your value price of random odds may be underestimating Nick’s selections a tad. I’m thinking perhaps you could knock 20% off and make an even bigger profit.

    I don’t know how you extracted the data but was wondering if you could confirm my suspicion?

    Chris Murrell 12/08/19 5:33 AM Reply


    • hi Chris, i was out almost all day yesterday, was Tim s item over last couple of days ? thanks John

      John Unitt 12/08/19 5:33 AM Reply


  • Think this must be the yard of d mccain as he had runners at both Ayr and Ludlow hope it’s back soon

    Paul 12/08/19 5:33 AM Reply


  • NOTE… I’m having to manually approve a load of comments for some reason. If you post a comment and it does not appear please be patient and don’t post again. I just have to click a button my end and approve it, which I normally only have to do for first ever comments.

    Josh 12/08/19 5:33 AM Reply


  • The Irish are totally bonkers letting Thurles go ahead given Elliott had runners at the affected meetings yesterday.

    nickmazur 12/08/19 5:33 AM Reply


    • It is the build up on Guinness over the years in the blood stream.

      martin colwell 12/08/19 5:33 AM Reply


  • Anyone got any tips for Virtual Racing?!

    Chris Sengelow 12/08/19 5:33 AM Reply


  • No doubt my Betfair account will be flooded with casino free spins shortly, more deleting to do.

    Virtual racing will that appear on my computer as well no doubt they will be pushing this as well, if the flu affects racing to long
    Colin.

    cleafe 12/08/19 5:33 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS……..these are @ Meydan and may be worth a look as a starting point.
    4.15 – Aquarium @ 25 4 plcs available
    6.00 – Mubtasim @ 7/2 / Amazour @ 25, 4 plcs

    Titus 12/08/19 5:33 AM Reply


  • Jamie Osborne 7/10 days ago on his video from Meydam via lambourntrainers.com implied that he had a couple targeted for todays meeting so well worth a listen today.
    The two that i have mentioned previously one won and one was advised not to back, found over couple of months that he his blunt and honest on his horses in most cases.
    Colin.

    cleafe 12/08/19 5:33 AM Reply


  • All British horse racing meetings on Thursday have been cancelled because of an outbreak of equine flu.

    Simon Karios 07/02/19 6:13 AM Reply


  • All racing off. This could be bad for the run up to Cheltenham. Hopefully the close down wont go on too long. A few years ago they had one for the same reason in Australia that lasted from many weeks.

    bogsnorkeler 07/02/19 6:13 AM Reply


    • Wonder which yard it was? Probably the ones i backed yesterday that finished out the back of the tv…. Bad news though! I had a hunch a couple of weeks ago, some yards had vaccinated and others hadn`t, it`s knowing when to do it as there is racing pretty much every day over in Britain, said it before and I`ll say it again, Ireland have their heads switched on with only racing a couple of days a week! Gives big yards enough time to vaccinate and let the after effects wear off.
      Lesson to be learnt by BHA….me thinks not, they will just carry on regardless!!

      Stewart 07/02/19 6:33 AM Reply


      • Oh I think this is one area of the game they are very good at. The concern here is that these cases are in vaccinated animals. This strain clearly not stopped by said vaccination and all be urged to get boosters now. We will see but it could be a bleak few weeks ahead.

        Josh 07/02/19 7:08 AM Reply


      • The link below shows where outbreaks have occurred. The most recent were in Suffolk.

        https://www.aht.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Equiflunet-outbreaks-2019-v2.pdf

        Ken McKenzie 07/02/19 7:28 AM Reply


      • Peter Saville when he was the CEO of BHA in consultation with the bookmakers for more revenue they decided to increase the fixture list by a substantial amount unable to remember the % of added fixtures per year, certainly not in the interest of Racing.
        They believed that the punter had an endless pocket of money to back on every race even the poor quality NH and Flat races what are still here today.
        AW is a different kettle of fish for it was introduced to keep racing and the betting levy going in winter and it is the lesser quality of animal which competes at this level for which we know.
        Agree with you Stewart far to much sub standard racing in Great Britain, but the outcry against Saville was not heeded at the time.
        Colin.

        cleafe 07/02/19 8:26 AM Reply


  • Tim, that was a genius piece of work you did with Nick’s figures to bsp minimum.

    Your value price of random odds may be underestimating Nick’s selections a tad. I’m thinking perhaps you could knock 20% off and make an even bigger profit.

    I don’t know how you extracted the data but was wondering if you could confirm my suspicion?

    Chris Murrell 07/02/19 6:51 AM Reply


    • hi Chris, i was out almost all day yesterday, was Tim s item over last couple of days ? thanks John

      John Unitt 07/02/19 8:36 AM Reply


      • John, it’s buried in the members’ post from 5th.

        It’s a reply to a reply to a reply, etc, etc, to your post which includes your reply to you know who.

        Chris Murrell 07/02/19 10:27 AM Reply


        • Oh right, thanks Chris. i ll dig it out later as its my Birthday today and dear Wife is taking me for lunch. Had to laugh at the ‘you know who’, i ve accepted his apology, and i know i am a can be a bit over -sensitive

          John Unitt 07/02/19 12:38 PM Reply


    • Not really an act of genius it’s just a utility program I wrote that analyses a given sample of bets to find the ‘global’ value so as to remove the dependence upon inflated early prices. I applied it to Ken’s AW method last year and it threw up some interesting pointers.

      I had forgotten I wrote this post so I had to go back and refresh my memory, but my guess of 25% was just a guess and would need to play with the parameters a little to optimise it out for the sample but it could be done, especially now that there is no racing on. I had that in mind when I posted but completely forgot all about it.

      There are a couple of flags up I noticed last time I ran it which really need to be checked out. Could turn out to be something and/or nothing, but some times they can identify significant factors that lead to better understanding as to what is going on.

      Some of the special characters didn’t come out in that last post I made on the thread (on Monday), and having just read it back it doesn’t make sense now, but is basically similar to that which you are proposing. I haven’t actually bet any of them yet. I usually plan to gather at least 12 months data before putting any staking plans together so I guess now is a good time to give them a looking at given spring and the start of the flat isn’t that far away.

      Tim Hanson 07/02/19 10:43 AM Reply


  • Think this must be the yard of d mccain as he had runners at both Ayr and Ludlow hope it’s back soon

    Paul 07/02/19 7:52 AM Reply


  • NOTE… I’m having to manually approve a load of comments for some reason. If you post a comment and it does not appear please be patient and don’t post again. I just have to click a button my end and approve it, which I normally only have to do for first ever comments.

    Josh 07/02/19 7:58 AM Reply


    • Sounds like there’s a bout of Forum Fever about!

      nickmazur 07/02/19 8:18 AM Reply


      • Is there a vaccination booster you can take for that?

        James P 07/02/19 11:12 AM Reply


        • Whisky I think! Albeit still a bit early for one of those. 🙂

          Josh 07/02/19 11:37 AM Reply


  • The Irish are totally bonkers letting Thurles go ahead given Elliott had runners at the affected meetings yesterday.

    nickmazur 07/02/19 8:22 AM Reply


    • Spot on Nick – very short sighted of them 🙁

      John Unitt 07/02/19 8:34 AM Reply


    • unless they haven’t travelled back yet

      martin26 07/02/19 9:33 AM Reply


      • yep all 5 were in transit when news broke and are now in a separate stables away from the rest. Hopefully it doesn’t set foot in Ireland so at least their racing will continue!

        Josh 07/02/19 12:19 PM Reply


    • It is the build up on Guinness over the years in the blood stream.

      martin colwell 07/02/19 9:54 AM Reply


  • Anyone got any tips for Virtual Racing?!

    Chris Sengelow 07/02/19 8:23 AM Reply


    • They seem to be a mix of horse and greyhound in virtual racing? The head of a horse and the body of a greyhound, with a very small jockey. Between marriages I had a girlfriend who was a betting shop manager and she used to get most annoyed when punters used to ask where the form was pinned up on the boards for the virtual racing.

      martin colwell 07/02/19 9:58 AM Reply


    • Love people with a sense of humour. I ll ask that bloke in my local Betfred when i see him, ragged trousers, old dirty shirt and shakes his fist each time he has a loser (often!) and apparently he’s one of the most successful Virtual players 🙂

      John Unitt 07/02/19 10:01 AM Reply


      • Was in ladbrokes a good while back a while back with the girlfriend,as her name is Rose she usually backs something with rose in the name.She was writing out a slip with something rose and i pointed out it was a cartoon race.”oh” she said and scrunched it up.Well you can guess what happened 16/1 winner.Lesson learned,no more betting advice.Funny how women can remember things from way way back

        gearoid180468 07/02/19 12:17 PM Reply


        • virtual racing eh? is that the one with computers generating the results, hope theres no virus

          general6969 07/02/19 2:52 PM Reply


          • Like it like it
            Colin

            cleafe 07/02/19 4:27 PM Reply


  • No doubt my Betfair account will be flooded with casino free spins shortly, more deleting to do.

    Virtual racing will that appear on my computer as well no doubt they will be pushing this as well, if the flu affects racing to long
    Colin.

    cleafe 07/02/19 8:52 AM Reply


    • Colin did you mean stuff like “Play With Real Cash On Our Casino Games And get up to £100 in Casino Bonuses” , received this morning

      martin26 07/02/19 9:29 AM Reply


      • Martin
        Could be the one for never look just delete them, will be interesting to see how many they send today
        Colin

        cleafe 07/02/19 9:54 AM Reply


    • Hi Colin……Try a different browser that blocks sites from tracking you so that you cannot be targeted when you log onto a site. I have been using Epic browser for years…just type in Epic browser in current browser and go to the sit and download…it is a secure, Chrome based browser …hope that helps.

      silver 07/02/19 10:12 AM Reply


      • Thanks Silver will get my whizz kid to take a look when next home.
        Colin

        cleafe 07/02/19 12:59 PM Reply


  • I’m wondering if it has something to do with that post where I used special characters. Maybe WordPress interprets them as control characters or some kind of coding instruction.

    arrocuda 12/08/19 12:13 AM Reply


    • No it won’t be that. It will be to do with what I (my tech support) did last night and something to do with in effect before you were posting as a member, but simultaneously with a wordpress account I think hence name appearing, and now you’re posting just as a logged in member. The joys.

      I’ll delete some of our chat above.

      Josh 12/08/19 12:44 AM Reply


      • Tim, I think if you post again it ‘should’ come up with your name.. I logged in as you, clicked your username (green hyperlink) (where it says ‘logged in as’ – you can click that) above where it said post reply, and that took me into profile page – where, you can decide what is published when posting comments (display name), whether username, whole name etc By all means change it back if you wish, I was playing around, don’t think I can do that to all accounts, people can do it on a case by case basis. But i’ll check first my end.

        Josh 12/08/19 6:53 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS……..these are @ Meydan and may be worth a look as a starting point.
    4.15 – Aquarium @ 25 4 plcs available
    6.00 – Mubtasim @ 7/2 / Amazour @ 25, 4 plcs

    Titus 07/02/19 9:01 AM Reply


    • What is this Meydan you talk of?? Haha. I mean if this does get bad I’m going to have to get creative on these pages to ensure I’m not just talking to myself. I may have to venture into the desert! And certainly do more in Ireland provided they stay free from it. Best of luck.

      Josh 07/02/19 11:36 AM Reply


      • – Micro for Meydan – Jockey – Lawrence Of Arabia; Trainer – Chief Ali – Distance – Charging the guns.

        martin colwell 07/02/19 12:44 PM Reply


  • Jamie Osborne 7/10 days ago on his video from Meydam via lambourntrainers.com implied that he had a couple targeted for todays meeting so well worth a listen today.
    The two that i have mentioned previously one won and one was advised not to back, found over couple of months that he his blunt and honest on his horses in most cases.
    Colin.

    cleafe 07/02/19 9:14 AM Reply


    • Colin
      I have just watched the videos of Jamie O, I agree with you very honest.
      The one that interested me was the interview with Osin Murphy, It took me back to when Lester Piggott was interviewed, mumbled could hardly hear him and he gave nothing away. A chip of the old block.
      If he rides as good a LP then I will follow him with interest.

      Mike

      mickeydee 07/02/19 9:50 AM Reply


      • Mike
        where i get him from is lambourntrainers.com/todays-lambourn- runners/ and as of yet he has put nothing up, if you found his interview on todays racing could you please put his views on here for hospital at 11.00 and taxi due in 15 mins.
        Greatly appreciated
        Colin

        cleafe 07/02/19 10:04 AM Reply


        • Colin
          Apologies I missed your reply as I went out just after I posted. Here is JO link to his videos and latest news.
          https://vimeo.com/315837346?from=outro-embed
          He thought Jukebox Jive wasn’t fit LTO but better and fitter, alas he was 3rd at 20/1.
          He is confident about Dream Today 5.25 Meydan wasn’t to well LTO but still won and he looks for the same again. Confident with Cliffs of Capri as well..

          Mike

          mickeydee 07/02/19 4:55 PM Reply


      • I am currently running query tools to find new micros for the all weather and came across one for Jamie Osborne:

        Chelmsford – Non handicap – 6/33 10p, +22 last 2 years, 68% ROI.

        I will highlight runners on the blog as systems selections.

        Back to the digging.

        martin colwell 07/02/19 11:00 AM Reply


        • I just did an SP rank check on your micro system and can tell you that all the profit comes from an SP rank value =>3 and =5, but over the last two years 5 = -11

          Tim Hanson 07/02/19 11:59 AM Reply


          • It’s doing it again Josh. Every time you use special characters to express mathematical expressions it seems to edit or chop your message short. Did the same thing Monday on that discussion I was having with Nick.

            Tim Hanson 07/02/19 12:34 PM Reply


            • It’s always done that I think, I don’t know why. I’ve got other problems at the moment, i’m having to manually approve loads of comments, as with this last one of yours just now, and I don’t know why. This forum thing, and sorting it out back end has caused more problems than it’s worth i think.

              Josh 07/02/19 12:38 PM Reply


          • Cheers, I will monitor.

            M

            martin colwell 07/02/19 12:42 PM Reply


            • Martin… if you can filter by SP rank set it to equal or greater than 3 and equal or less than 5 gives a 31% SR +60.72 BFSP 379.5% ROI. All other SP ranka are showing a loss over 2 years.

              Tim Hanson 07/02/19 1:10 PM Reply


          • I think it best to monitor all qualifiers as one bigger price winner can make up for a few shorties. We shall see how we go.

            martin colwell 07/02/19 2:57 PM Reply


        • Great Martin, I love AW micros 🙂 thanks for sharing

          Mark Curtis 07/02/19 12:11 PM Reply


    • Hi Colin
      Glad the op is done and you are recovering OK and feeling a bit better.
      Don’t know about the video but I would just like to thank you for the golf info.
      In the Desert Classic, after the 3rd day, Phil was slightly odds on and I laid him at 1.98 on Betfair to lock in a profit.
      The same @1.5 with JR the following week. Bryson I backed to win and did not bother trying to lay it off as he never looked like losing. With the payout to the Betfair punter for Justin and the other 2 losers taken into account I made over £300 profit over the 2 weekends.
      It has helped to offset the recent dire horse racing returns so thank you once again.
      Cheers

      Mike 07/02/19 11:29 AM Reply


  • I hear that they hope to commence racing next Wednesday.

    martin colwell 12/08/19 12:13 AM Reply


    • Thats not how I interpreted the latest announcement but it would be the most positive result

      Chris Sengelow 12/08/19 12:44 AM Reply


  • No racing in Mainland GB until 13th FEB at the earliest

    silver 12/08/19 12:13 AM Reply


  • Get working on those Irish micros Josh 🙂

    Mark Curtis 11/08/19 11:51 PM Reply


    • Well I’m off to Milan on Sat until Tues, so I don’t mind too much!! 🙂 Albeit as always you wouldn’t have noticed any difference to section 1/3, and i’d have attacked Sat with gusto. Will be interesting to see what Irish authorities do. it’s been a very odd jumps season, and this tops it off.

      Oh BTW Mark, i’m having to manually approve all your comments… something to do with wordpress integration with my members’ software, as I think you will be logged in to both (creates a wordpress acc when setting up also)

      If not too much bother, any chance you can log out of everything and then log in with members’ box. No worries if not, something has changed my end which is causing some issues, albeit makes commenting easier…

      Josh 12/08/19 12:44 AM Reply


  • Time to drop stakes, fewer bets or stop altogether when racing restarts I think, definitely won’t be the time to try and play catch up we could be in for a very lean couple of months.

    chris 11/08/19 11:51 PM Reply


    • Why’s that? training regimes haven’t been affected as yet. Depends how long the break goes on for, but can’t think will affect approach to the daily stuff that much, but more so the big meetings/races maybe. We had 5+ days or so called off from frost/snow at a similar time last year, if not a tad closer to Festival, when most had done their prep in truth. But yes maybe some caution is advisable, we will see.

      Josh 12/08/19 12:44 AM Reply


      • Of course it depends on how long the break goes on for, but I think snow and frost is a lot different to a virus and the recovery times of flu boosters, clearly. Don’t we see it every year from some yards after flu jabs that they under perform for short periods after? Maybe I’m wrong. I’ll definitely be treading with caution with reduced stakes until I’m comfortable with it all again, don’t see any harm in reducing risk after something like this and accepting that a few might slip through the net, wouldn’t want to go into Cheltenham battered and bruised with low confidence! I guess until we know the full extent of it, perhaps on Monday, we won’t know how to approach it yet anyway!

        chris 12/08/19 6:53 AM Reply


  • Colin, Jamie really likes the chances of Dream Today and Cliffs of Capri 🙂

    Mark Curtis 07/02/19 12:29 PM Reply


    • Thanks Mark just walked in from physio and quick glance at lambourn going to finish my coffee after walking just over 2 mile home bit knackered but pleased not bad after 12 days from a major op, will listen to Jamies video shortly said before would love to have a beer with him and listen to his tales.
      Those 2 horses where the ones he mentioned about 10 days ago.
      Colin.

      cleafe 07/02/19 1:08 PM Reply


      • Colin, yes I remember you posting. I think he’s really keen, done anEW double. Glad the physio going well!

        Mark Curtis 07/02/19 3:58 PM Reply


    • Come out top two on my numbers

      silver 07/02/19 5:58 PM Reply


  • TIM… have you been doing anything different with your comments since yesterday?? different email or whatever… as i’ve had to manually approve nearly all of yours, which is odd – i only usually do that for those posting for the very first time (mainly to check not spam etc) , and then fine. Clearly need to get to bottom of it, especially with how/when you tip as that could cause issues! I’ve no idea what’s changed since yesterday, had to approve 30 odd so far, inc repeats, from likes of John etc. I do hate technology sometimes!

    Josh 07/02/19 1:29 PM Reply


    • Josh….. just checked it out and some how the auto text editor has picked up a different email address of mine and was automatically entering it into the boxes. Gremlins here too it would appear.

      Tim Hanson 07/02/19 1:36 PM Reply


  • TESTING…1 2 3 !!
    Replied to your post Josh but don’t see it anywhere!

    chris 11/08/19 11:51 PM Reply


    • Nope i’m having to approve this annoyingly as with all yours today haha. I’ve no idea why, i think its something to do with wordpress or something. Same happened with Tim and plenty more! check the email add you’re putting in, if indeed you do, is correct maybe. Could not be matching up.

      Josh 12/08/19 12:44 AM Reply


      • I have just out and in again and now do not have to add a name/email to post.

        Maybe there is a WordPress plugin to clear the websites cache and force everyone to logout, then when they login again it might all be fine 🙂

        aspirin99 12/08/19 6:53 AM Reply


  • I’ve lost the boxes I used to have to put my name and email address into before posting. It just says ….. Logged in as arrocuda POST A REPLY

    arrocuda 07/02/19 1:50 PM Reply


    • Oh, you had to do that before posting every time???
      Yea, that will be to do with trying to cync wordpress and amember… this will be easier for you at least!

      I will look my back end, not impossible that there’s a setting where it uses your name to post rather than username, but I can always change that to Tim Hanson!

      Josh 07/02/19 1:53 PM Reply


  • I’m wondering if it has something to do with that post where I used special characters. Maybe WordPress interprets them as control characters or some kind of coding instruction.

    arrocuda 07/02/19 1:53 PM Reply


    • No it won’t be that. It will be to do with what I (my tech support) did last night and something to do with in effect before you were posting as a member, but simultaneously with a wordpress account I think hence name appearing, and now you’re posting just as a logged in member. The joys.

      I’ll delete some of our chat above.

      Josh 07/02/19 1:56 PM Reply


      • Tim, I think if you post again it ‘should’ come up with your name.. I logged in as you, clicked your username (green hyperlink) (where it says ‘logged in as’ – you can click that) above where it said post reply, and that took me into profile page – where, you can decide what is published when posting comments (display name), whether username, whole name etc By all means change it back if you wish, I was playing around, don’t think I can do that to all accounts, people can do it on a case by case basis. But i’ll check first my end.

        Josh 07/02/19 2:19 PM Reply


        • Everything looking good on the front end. I’m now logged in with my actual name so will send this post as a test.

          Tim Hanson 07/02/19 3:27 PM Reply


          • yep that’s worked just fine! 🙂

            Josh 07/02/19 3:43 PM Reply


  • I hear that they hope to commence racing next Wednesday.

    martin colwell 07/02/19 4:18 PM Reply


    • Thats not how I interpreted the latest announcement but it would be the most positive result

      Chris Sengelow 07/02/19 4:34 PM Reply


  • No racing in Mainland GB until 13th FEB at the earliest

    silver 07/02/19 4:24 PM Reply


  • Get working on those Irish micros Josh 🙂

    Mark Curtis 07/02/19 4:34 PM Reply


    • Well I’m off to Milan on Sat until Tues, so I don’t mind too much!! 🙂 Albeit as always you wouldn’t have noticed any difference to section 1/3, and i’d have attacked Sat with gusto. Will be interesting to see what Irish authorities do. it’s been a very odd jumps season, and this tops it off.

      Oh BTW Mark, i’m having to manually approve all your comments… something to do with wordpress integration with my members’ software, as I think you will be logged in to both (creates a wordpress acc when setting up also)

      If not too much bother, any chance you can log out of everything and then log in with members’ box. No worries if not, something has changed my end which is causing some issues, albeit makes commenting easier…

      Josh 07/02/19 4:39 PM Reply


  • Time to drop stakes, fewer bets or stop altogether when racing restarts I think, definitely won’t be the time to try and play catch up we could be in for a very lean couple of months.

    chris 07/02/19 4:48 PM Reply


    • Why’s that? training regimes haven’t been affected as yet. Depends how long the break goes on for, but can’t think will affect approach to the daily stuff that much, but more so the big meetings/races maybe. We had 5+ days or so called off from frost/snow at a similar time last year, if not a tad closer to Festival, when most had done their prep in truth. But yes maybe some caution is advisable, we will see.

      Josh 07/02/19 5:32 PM Reply


      • Of course it depends on how long the break goes on for, but I think snow and frost is a lot different to a virus and the recovery times of flu boosters, clearly. Don’t we see it every year from some yards after flu jabs that they under perform for short periods after? Maybe I’m wrong. I’ll definitely be treading with caution with reduced stakes until I’m comfortable with it all again, don’t see any harm in reducing risk after something like this and accepting that a few might slip through the net, wouldn’t want to go into Cheltenham battered and bruised with low confidence! I guess until we know the full extent of it, perhaps on Monday, we won’t know how to approach it yet anyway!

        chris 07/02/19 6:28 PM Reply


  • TESTING…1 2 3 !!
    Replied to your post Josh but don’t see it anywhere!

    chris 07/02/19 6:31 PM Reply


    • Nope i’m having to approve this annoyingly as with all yours today haha. I’ve no idea why, i think its something to do with wordpress or something. Same happened with Tim and plenty more! check the email add you’re putting in, if indeed you do, is correct maybe. Could not be matching up.

      Josh 07/02/19 6:36 PM Reply


      • I have just out and in again and now do not have to add a name/email to post.

        Maybe there is a WordPress plugin to clear the websites cache and force everyone to logout, then when they login again it might all be fine 🙂

        aspirin99 07/02/19 11:54 PM Reply


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